Judging Freedom - Ukraine Offensive Stalled_, Scott Ritter

Episode Date: April 27, 2023

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Save $80 with code SPACE80 at Talkspace.com. Hi everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here with Judging Freedom. Today is Thursday, April 27th, 2023. It's about 3.30 in the afternoon here on the east coast of the United States. Scott Ritter joins us now. Scott, always a pleasure. Thanks for coming back on the show. Scott, recently a Ukrainian general by the name of Sergei Melnik, M-E-L-N-I-K, is quoted as saying that the Kiev needs up to six times, Ukrainian general, up to six times more troops and firepower than Russia has for its so-called counteroffensive to succeed.

That's not even conceivable, is it? No, not even close. In short, he's saying we can't do it. And Larry Johnson thinks this fellow may be retired. I don't know if you know him or know of him, but how or why is a Ukrainian lieutenant general, I believe, who has pretty much said something similar to that, meaning that Ukraine is not in a position to begin this much vaunted counteroffensive until they receive more equipment, more material. He didn't use the, he didn't give the figure of six times. I that's uh melnick's own personal calculations based upon um the realities of the battlefield which because

normally you want a three-to-one advantage if you're uh if you're going to be carrying out an attack of this nature but I think what he's saying with the six times is uh in order to pin down the Russians on the totality of the line of contact to prevent uh reinforcements etc um ukraine's going to need six times as many uh resources as it currently has what are the what are the respective force strengths now numerically well the russians are probably hovering around uh 500 600 000 and the ukrainians are probably in the area of 600,000. But again, Ukrainian troops, the vast majority of them are poorly trained territorials. And all of the Russians are well-trained, well-equipped, well-rested forces.

Our mutual friend Alistair Crook tells us that he is hearing that the Ukrainians are bringing trainees, four weeks of training, 16 and 17 year olds to the front at night in the dark, telling them to go to sleep. And when they wake up, they can see the Russian guns and they run away. Well, you obviously can't. If that's true, you can't run a military like that. No, you can't. Look, the fact of the matter is Ukraine had an army, an active regular force of 260,000 when this war began. And 80 percent of those two original 260,000 well-trained, well-equipped, well-led forces. 80% are killed, captured, or wounded. They're gone.

And they're not being replaced with troops anywhere near the same level of training. And in addition to that, Ukraine has had to mobilize territorial brigades, reserve units. And these units are being eviscerated at the front line. It's not a survivable situation for these ukrainian troops it's uh it's tragic uh i i think uh colonel mcgregor our mutual uh friend and and uh and i i deeply respect um said it is transition away from and i might be paraphrasing him but it's transitioned away from a slaughter to literally a humanitarian disaster that this you can't even call this war anymore whatasing him, but it's transitioned away from a slaughter to literally a humanitarian disaster. You can't even call this war anymore, what's going on there. It's just tragic what's going on.

Because Ukrainians can't defend against what the Russians are putting up against them. So President Zelensky's vaunted spring offensive, it's not going to happen. It can't happen. I mean, they may try something. They have assembled some forces, a lot of political pressure on them, especially from the British, to be seen as doing something in order to be able to convince Europe to continue putting resources into this. But they've lost all their air defense on the front lines. They have nothing. So they used to be able to assemble forces under the cover of air defense and then bring those forces to the front lines.

Now, as they assemble them 15, 20 kilometers back, the Russians detect it and the Russians are hitting them with, you know, 1,000, 1,500 pound bombs, precision guided bombs right in the middle of the assembly area. And these forces are being murdered before they even get a chance to get near the front lines. Just as we were coming on air, Secretary General Stoltenberg issued a statement. We have the translation. Here it is. More than 98% of the combat vehicles promised to Ukraine have already been delivered. That means over 1,500 armored vehicles, 230 tanks, and other equipment, including vast amounts of ammunition. What the heck do they have left?

Well, I mean, you know, this stuff has been delivered. I think we should point out that many of the Leopard tanks that have been delivered can't go to the front lines because they broke down as soon as they arrived. They're now being stored in the rear with um you know to be used as spare parts to cannibalize them to get some of the ones that were delivered ready to roll um and you know it's not just equipment though you have to talk about the people who operate them um have they been sufficiently trained and the fact of the matter is this stuff isn't going to survive must have they been sufficiently trained? And the fact of the matter is this stuff isn't going to survive. Most of it has already been destroyed. I mean, he can say it's been delivered. What he didn't talk about is the warehouses where these are put in,

the Russians are blowing up. A lot of this equipment is destroyed before it even gets anywhere near the front line. All right. So how dire is the tactical situation for the Ukrainian military? Now, you have told us before you answer, they have a general who is respected worldwide in the military, but he's only as good as the people that work for him. But how dire is their situation? It's extraordinarily dire. To give you an example, in the battle for Mariupol, the Ukrainians were able to make strong points of these high-rise buildings. And the Russians, the tactic the Russians used was to assault the building because they had to inspect the base, make sure there were no civilians there.

And then they'd fight floor by floor by floor, very bloody fighting. And the Ukrainians, even though they lost, they were given the Russians a hard time. In Bakhmut, for example, the Russians are confirming that civilians have been evacuated and the Ukrainians are putting a couple hundred guys into these high-rise buildings waiting for the Russians to come and fight floor by floor by floor. The Russians just pull back, hit it with a 2,000-pound bomb, drop the whole building kill everybody the russians aren't playing the game anymore they're not this is the russians are taking advantage of the fact that there is no air defense and they're just holding back they're just blowing everything up killing everything it's it's a very you can't even really call it combat

i mean this is the ideal colin powell once said i I don't believe in a fair fight. I don't want a fair fight. In the Russians right now, it ain't a fair fight. Here's that line at his best or at his worst, depending upon how you want to characterize it. It's a little long, but he's ranting and raving. And I think you may have said this for you, Scott. There's an allusion to, oh, judge, your experts have said, he's obviously talking about you and Colonel McGregor, but take a listen and then let him have it. You know, the Ukrainians have to show progress on the offensive or if we're going to keep funding them. Now, wait a minute, you just moved the bar. This is a guy you offered a ticket to fly out of there. This is the guy that your guests were saying was going to be crushed by the 300,000 man Soviet army reconstituted. None of that happened. The Ukrainians have been amazingly effective in a standstill. That is a victory. The guy is losing in this. Putin can't go back and

say, I want to tell the world, I have a standstill with the Ukrainians. Do the Ukrainians still control Bakhmut after fighting there for six months? Do the Russians? No one seems to know. Fighting over one little location and that's war? Well, I mean, look, the Russian goal

when they started this special military operation was demilitarization. Hey, Mr. mr devine you're cia right okay go back and listen to the words coming out of vladimir putin's mouth notification the militarization do you think that the war is going to be run by drawing big arrows on the map the russians are going to win the war by destroying the ukrainian army which they're doing by the way the u.s government admits to a seven to one kill ratio advantage for the Russians, but that's put out over time, starting in February 22 until today. Right now, that kill advantage is 10 to one, 14 to one or higher. I know you're CIA, but let me

give it to you in simple marine math. That means for every one Russian killed, 14 dead Ukrainians. Hey, Jack, they can't sustain that. They're losing. And the Russians are fighting the battle they want to fight. Do you think you want them to take Bakhmut? All they want to do is kill Ukrainians. And that's what they're doing. By the bushel full. And when I look at demilitarization, that's the definition of classic definition of it. So with all due respect, Mr. Devine, you don't know what you're talking about. You simply don't know what you're talking about. Jack's been my friend for years and I like him. It's hard for me to find anything I agree with him on. I didn't mean to be disrespectful. That's why I said with all due respect,

I'm not being disrespectful. But he comes from a culture of twisting the truth. Scott, he claims that you, McGregor, Crook, McGovern, Johnson, and I have all misread the documents that the boy is accused of leaking, and that in fact, it is a seven to one kill ratio the other way around, that the Ukrainians are killing seven Russians for every one Ukrainian the Russians are killing. I have never heard this from anybody else. It was I wish we had the tape of it. Gary will get it for us the next time you're on with us. He's steadfast in that nonsense.

Look, Judge, I'm going to say it, and I've said it before, I'll say it again. I'm several thousand miles removed from the battlefield, and I'm a prisoner to the data that's made publicly available. I don't have secret information. I don't have the ability to pick up the phone. But what I do have is significant experience in things called military operations, combat, war. I respect Mr. Devine's background as a CIA operative. I really do. But he doesn't know anything about war, not a darn thing. And if he did, he would understand how ludicrous this concept of a seven to one kill ratio and advantage for the Ukrainians is.

It's just I was going to use a a bad word not a bad word but i was gonna call him i would never call jack divide stupid but it's stupid to say something like that uh no no one else i mean not even the ukrainians will come up with that kind of fiction uh but and the ukrainians are acknowledging that they're just getting butchered right now they are in the new york times which doesn't like russia doesn't want they're starting to run stories about how bad it is everybody's starting to run stories about how bad it is. Everybody's starting to wake up because sooner, and it's going to be sooner rather than later, the Ukrainian army is going to collapse. And when they do, the whole truth is going to come out.

There's a lot of people in the media right now saying we need to start balancing the story so that we don't have too much egg on our face. And who's taking advantage of that but the Chinese? President Xi, who won't return Joe Biden's phone calls, will return a phone call from President Zelensky, and they'll talk for 90 minutes, and then they'll each have one of their PR people give a readout, and the readouts are remarkably similar and remarkably amicable. How's that, Joe Biden? Well, you know, Nixon went to China. Trump went to North Korea. Joe Biden hasn't done anything. I mean, diplomacy used to be America's forte. We used to be able to go out and at least try and engage Camp David. We tried to solve the Israeli. We weren't successful, but at least we tried. Even Obama's Iran nuclear deal was an effort at diplomacy. We're in a very difficult world situation which demands leadership

and leadership not of the, I'm going to beat you up into a pulp even though I'm a skinny, atrophied old man type leadership, but leadership that says, I'm wise, I'm going to come in, I'm going to sit down, and we're going to solve this thing peacefully for the satisfaction of all parties. We're not doing it. A vacuum is being created, and the Chinese are filling it. Peace is breaking out all over. Look at the Middle East between Iran and Saudi Arabia, at the Middle East between Saudi Arabia and Syria. And now China is coming in between Ukraine and Russia. They're taking advantage of the absolute lack of leadership on the part of the United States. What is to prevent a ceasefire now, other than Joe Biden?

Look, this war. Would Zelensky be assassinated if he ordered a ceasefire and they repaired Geneva and started negotiating? He could get in trouble if he did it on his own. But again, if I were the president of the United States, I'd just pick up the phone and say, we're done. It's over. No more equipment to you. I'm not going to let NATO send anything.

It's a consensus-driven organization. We're shutting it down. Now, you can opt to fight on your own, Mr. Zelensky. That's your prerogative as a leader of a sovereign state. You won't get any help from us and you'll die. Or if you accept the fact that it's over, we'll go ahead and help create the conditions to get the best possible result for you at the negotiating table. We will be on your side batting for you. But it's over.

We're done. We're not going to have any more Ukrainians killed in our name. We're not going to waste any more money. The war is over. It would end that quick. But we're not going to have any more Ukrainians killed in our name. We're not going to waste any more money. The war's over. It would end that quick. But we're not doing it. So we're going to. You and I and our colleagues have discussed this before.

America has no off ramp, no soft landing to get out of this mess. 68 billion spent already. God only knows what else is committed. We know he's got another 35 or 40 billion available to him under the law, terrible law, because the Constitution requires that every expenditure be recorded in a public journal. Tell that to the CIA and tell that to the DOD. Another argument for another time. But Congress did give him $113 billion to spend however he wants. Is he foolish enough to spend all of it? Or does he understand the principle of cutting your losses? Well, he obviously understands the principle of cutting

your losses. Look at Afghanistan. The thing about America's geography is we have a built-in soft landing. It's called the Pacific Ocean and the Atlantic Ocean. So when we run away from a fight like we did in Afghanistan, like we did in South Vietnam, and like we're going to end up doing in Ukraine, we don't have to deal with the awful consequences of abandonment. We just leave. And then we go back to Fortress America or NATO or wherever. And the people that put everything on the line because they believe the United States, when the United States said we're going to be there side by side fighting with you till the bitter end, they're left alone. Again, Afghanistan.

That wasn't pretty what happened in August of 2021. That was an embarrassment. Kirby can get up there and spin it any way he wants. Everybody who watched that knew that this was a humiliation for America. But when we left, we didn't have to pay a price. We could just turn off the TV and not see the images. The same thing is going to happen with Ukraine. When we leave, and we will leave, the Ukrainians are going to be left holding the bag all by themselves. The soft landing is Fortress America buffered by the Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans. Do you think that President Xi attempted to talk President Zelensky into a ceasefire and coming to the negotiating table? I think he made it clear

that Zelensky is not going to get the deal he wants from the Russians. But what he can get is Chinese assistance in rebuilding his country but in order to do that he's going to have to sit down at the negotiating table so I think he gave zolinski an offer that he couldn't refuse but just like in the Godfather uh sometimes you refuse the offer a few times and it takes waking up the morning with a horse's head in your bed before you realize it's the offer you're going to have to accept. How stable politically in his job is President Zelensky now? Is he being tugged to the right by ultra nationalists who want him to do more?

I don't know what more he could do or or tugged whatever direction you want to call it by people who understand the time to cut your losses is now. Or is he king of the hill? Well, he's, I mean, he is the president, it is martial law, and as long as he has some loyal people in the army and the security services around him, he'll continue to be the president. But, you know, I'm sure the czar felt that in 1917 that he was large and in charge as well until the army abandoned him, marched on the palace, and it was over. The Ukrainian military, especially the territorials, are getting fed up. And at some point in time, just like the Russian army did, they're just going to drop their weapons and head home. They're not going to play this game of sitting there getting eviscerated by the Russians on a daily basis for much longer. I think the Ukrainian army is literally on the cusp

of quitting. How much longer can this last, Scott, militarily? I think that there's sufficient Ukrainians to continue to fight into the summer, but I'll just say what I've always said. I believe this war is over by the end of summer, early fall. I don't see the Ukrainians being able to continue. The Ukrainians are admitting themselves. They're running out of air defense. And when they run out of air defense, I mean all air defense, it's over. Literally, it's over.

The documents that Tashara is accused of revealing, I keep putting it that way because I still find it hard to believe that a 21 year old part-timer had that stuff and revealed it but we'll see where that goes even independent of the documents you don't have to the ukrainians themselves have said this stoldenberg has said is we don't need these documents to make these conclude that's something i've said all along about these documents is that anybody who has been following this situation recognizes the truth in much of what those documents were saying. You don't need some 21-year-old kid to cut and paste and put something out there to know that they're running out of artillery ammunition, they're running out of air defense, that they have insufficient training,

that the stuff we're giving them breaks all the time doesn't work. All right. But the documents themselves, the authenticity of which the government doesn't challenge, the accuracy of which the government doesn't dispute, recognizes that the government itself understands that Ukraine's air defenses are denuded down to close to zero and will be zero at the end of May, six weeks from now. How could they possibly survive with zero air defenses? They can't. And we're already seeing the evidence. This is what I talked to you about earlier, Judge.

The Ukrainians are literally, they're sitting ducks. They have no defense. As they bring these troops up, the Russians, and it's almost, I mean, it's sad because the Russians come in with aircraft that don't even get anywhere close to whatever air defense umbrella it is. They've pinpointed the location. They release a precision guided glide bomb that glides in and it hits the right target every single time and it kills everybody there. And here's this this is this the truth the russians aren't even playing to the full potential you know they're running a handful of sorties like this every day if they were really out to kill ukrainians

they would be running hundreds of sorties like this and killing everybody at once the russians aren't in the business of killing ukrainians They're in the business of getting the Ukrainian government to quit. What happens when an American comes home in a body bag? Well, if it's an active duty American, hopefully enough people will raise the question and say, what was he doing over there? But again, the documents show there are 100 Americans over there. You and I had this conversation before, Judge. I told you there are uniformed personnel, special operations personnel, and all those State Department people they put on there, they ain't State Department, they're Jack Devine. Yeah. And even more MI6 and British Special Forces.

They got a squadron, a squadron, 50 British SAS over there. And I'll tell you something about that. I'm not giving away anything here. If you're a training element, if you're there to train, you aren't a squadron size, you're a troop size. To have a squadron there means these are combat troops. They're involved in combat operations. So the British, a NATO member, is involved in combat operations on the ground in Ukraine. Wow. Scott, always a pleasure, my man. Thank you very much for all your insight. We'll see you again soon.

Okay, thank you. More as we get it. If you like what you just heard and saw and the courage and articulation, like and subscribe. Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom.