Judging Freedom - Ukraine Russia War Latest - Jack Devine

Episode Date: October 19, 2022

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Save $80 with code SPACE80 at Talkspace.com. Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Wednesday, October 19th, 2022. It's about 3.20 in the afternoon here on the east coast of the United States. My guest is a well-known regular guest on Judging Freedom. He is former senior management at the Central Intelligence Agency and a longtime personal friend, Jack Devine. Jack, it's always a pleasure. Welcome here. Thank you. Can the Russians lose this war in Ukraine?

Well, let me equivocate. They will lose. They will lose. They can't win. That's not an equivocation. That's even more forceful. You're saying they can lose. You're saying they will lose.

I was being facetious. I was being facetious. I was saying in a declarative statement, they will lose. They cannot win. Can you explain, please? Well, I keep referring to it. I mean, there's a lot of things I wrote that I hope no one ever finds, right?

But on March of this year, right after the Russians went in, I got an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal. And the thought line says Putin has sowed the seeds of his demise and I'm hanging in there this is one that I'm proud of and it says what he did when he crossed there's no road back there's no win you know you're not Genghis Khan you're not going to be able to run over the Ukraine, driving it into the dirt. You know, this is, you're in a different point in time. And so what has happened, it's actually more drastic than I imagined when I'd written it, and that is, he's actually, it's not that he can't sustain against an insurgency like

they tried in Afghanistan. He can't win the traditional part of it. He can't even get control over it before it starts to crumble. It crumbled when he went across. I didn't realize the poor condition of his military forces, their training, their leadership, communications, and the state of their equipment. And the other thing that I was talking to someone earlier today,

ideas matter. You know, struggles between major powers and ideologies, ideas matter. And I think if you scrape everything away, the feat against communism, the feat against fascism, is because democracy in the free world is a better idea. What is Putin's idea? He doesn't even have one. He's not a communist. He's not a, well, he might have fascist tendencies, but he doesn't have an idea. It's me, and I'm trying to capitalize on national. I don't think you can beat the West. He underestimated

how quickly we grasped our idea. When he invaded NATO, everybody, it's about the way the world's going to be. We're not really confused on that aspect of it. All right, Jack, you have used the phrase the West, excuse me, and you've used the plural we. Yeah. Have we started World War III? Is this Putin against the West? It just appears to be Putin against Ukraine. Yeah, let me clarify my statement, because I think that really, I should have said.

I'm not joking. I'm not joking. I should have said the West and the allies, Japan and, you know, whatever countries. Okay, I get it. But have we wittingly or unwittingly begun a war of the West, whoever that is, against Russia? Well, what I would say is we were asleep, you know, comfortable with the idea. Didn't think our idea was being threatened, right?

So it was asleep. It wasn't imperialism, it wasn't like we're gonna go and take Russia and convert it into our world. I mean, people have to look at it. Russia invaded a country, a neighboring country that had a democratic city. You know, maybe he didn't like the type of it,

but it was, they had elections and you could walk around the streets and do what you want. He invaded it without provocation. He says all these wild things that he was being threatened. Russia was being threatened by a country without nuclear weapons. I mean, really, a country of smaller size. So it isn't. But when he crossed, then it became we again. In other words, why?

He was challenging the behavior that we signed up a large part of the world around an orderly, democratic, free society. That you don't invade each other's countries willy-nilly. Did the CIA participate in the overthrow of the popularly elected government in Ukraine in 2014? Well, I have no definitive answer, but I will tell you, I'd be amazed if they did. Isn't that what they do? Well, yeah, but my even lecturing, like you see Good Honey up there, you see Spymaster, you do it very selectively. In fact, you're really onto a hot topic. You know, why don't we do it in Russia? Why don't we destabilize Iran? Look at the opportunities that's falling apart. And Jack

Devine said in that wonderful op-ed, don't do that inside because you're not as good as you think you are. And that isn't how it's done. In other words, you don't decide't do that inside because you're not as good as you think you are and that isn't how it's done in other words you don't decide you're going to go in somewhere somewhere and overthrow a government the first step is you have to sit down and say is there anybody in that country that happens to think the way i think and what what what does it look like how big are they how strong are they and what is the idea that you're pushing, right? So my point is, and I was very explicit in the op-ed, do not run some covert action operation. Some guy who's been in the agency but never touched one, this guy will fall of his own weight if you let him keep doing what he's doing.

However, just one fast thing on this, George. That doesn't mean we don't do anything. We're as strong as we can be. Don't meddle inside his country. He'll be able to rally people, and we will pick some Gucci guy who's not a real Russian, and he'll get slaughtered. So I'm saying let him fall in his own way. He is going to fall.

There's no road back. Is it tomorrow or next month? I can't tell you. But we don't. CIA should not. Do you reject governors? I know you have a different audience than usual, and I enjoy their audience,

but CIA's role is not to overthrow governors. It should go at it reluctantly. And I'm an enthusiast for action. All right. I will not read to you what the audience is saying. People told me they have wild, wild ideas about me. You know that I,

I regard, I regard our friendship with gratitude and joy. And I deeply appreciate you being on the show and you do bring out a lot of strong opinions from a lot of I welcome that's why this show is fun I don't feel like talking to people that are going to say Jack we agree with you let's have it out there let's have it

okay do you accept the argument that Putin cannot keep his job or his life or his liberty if he loses, and therefore will do anything within his power to win. Well, no. Let's go to no.

Okay, maybe that helps you. If he is losing, there's a mark. Today, I do not see him in jeopardy. But the grains of sand are moving under his feet, right? And the more he looks like a loser, the more he is a loser, the more his friends, his so-called fair weather friends, will disappear. Before he gets to that desperation, he's not the only man in Russia that's going to

be looking at it. And when he gets into that really last round of the fight, right, and his manager's sitting there in a corner, he's bleeding and can't move his legs anymore, the towel comes. That means before he gets to the point where you might consider a nuclear weapon, he will be gone. He's not going to have enough support to get to that. That's Jack Devine's pick. Is he still

secure in his job? Does he still have the support of the intelligence community around him, the elites around them, and the average Russians in the street. There are different groups stating the obvious. Yes, of course. I think the day he crossed the border, this is Jack's unscientific opinion, one-third of the generals said, well, yeah,

it's worth a shot. We don't like the Ukrainians, right? Another third said, look, I'm a good soldier. I don't like this idea. We'll another third said look i'm a good soldier i don't like this idea we'll go along another third said this is crazy this is a bad idea right but i'm going to keep my mouth shut because if i tell anybody i don't know whether they're they're going to report it they're going to take me out so this is a third that probably didn't want to do this in the upper command intelligence whatever it is the more you were experiencing intelligence the dumber this idea looks, no matter where you're sitting.

So I would say today those numbers are changing. The only thing that hasn't changed is they're still not talking to each other. That gets to your second point about the people on the street. I don't see a cow. He can be thrown out tomorrow. I'll give your audience that. But I don't see it. It would be a surprise, but not a

total surprise. More likely what I think you have to see is this population, this popularity among the people fading and that there's continuing problems. It doesn't start based on my experience in studying of the subject. The real coup plotting, that doesn't start until really late in the game. And I was in Chile when Allende was overthrown, okay? And there's a lot of popular nonsense out there. Your audience is really going to love me. But the CIA, you know, there was a dumb attempt to stop him from becoming president. The CIA said,

don't do it. And the president of the United States, Richard Nixon said, give it the college try. But it was a disaster. What happens is everyone forgot that that day we got an instruction saying no coup plotting. But there was a coup and it came in 73. CIA as late as August still didn't think there would be a coup in that country. Now, my wife was the first person that got notice, official notice, there was going to be a coup. When did the generals decide to overthrow again? I'll tell you the day. It was in June. And that was the day a group of six tanks, I think it was six, pulled in front of the main. They were drinking all night.

They pulled in front. And they were going to overthrow the six guys. And the commander of the chief of the armed forces went out and said, listen, you're a soldier. Get back in your tank and leave. So I'm telling you, I was part of the group that said, well, that's it. How are they ever going to overthrow Andy? This is it.

You know what happened? They left that meeting, and that's the day the coup plot started because he said, our military institution is crumbling. We will take charge. Let's come back. Let's come back to Ukraine. How much of a setback for the Russians was the damage to the Crimea Bridge? And were the CIA or MI6 involved in the planning of the explosions that took down a portion of that bridge?

To the best of my knowledge, the answer is no. However, what I would say is I think one of the major contributions that people fell asleep on is that the friendly nations like the United States, publicly it's in the press, and I believe the press, of course, that a lot of training took place by the best army on the face of the earth, right, because we've been fighting 20 years. What do you see a difference of training took place by the best army on the face of the earth, right? Because we've been fighting 20 years. What do you see a difference of? They're using tactics, but they didn't need us to plan that attack. People keep underestimating Ukrainians. It's

not like they've never been in a fight. Russia talks about the great Russia. Well, Ukrainians are the one that stand down in Stalin. it wasn't the Russians. So my point is these are people who fight. So I don't think that's the case. Your question about the Crimea is important. Because I've been saying privately for a long time, Putin's out there waving the nuclear weapon, that is psych warfare. The importance of attacking the Crimea and bringing the fight there, you can't underestimate how that impacted in the mind of the Russians, how it impacts the mind of its leadership, its military, and how it impacts on the Ukrainians. So I think it was a huge, huge thing. And, you know, I'm not ruling out that they're not going to take it back by force

that's yeah that's when the plots start you got to pinpoint your day in other words it'll be there'll be an event and then that's why i went the chili thing that day when an institution their personal institution that's when they start plotting. Who damaged the Nord Stream pipeline? That's a good question. I polled a lot of people. I'll tell you what my poll was. It was like five for the Russians, 50%. Another three were for the Brits, right? And then there was one for the Ukrainians and one for the US, right? So the point is- Who are these characters? Retired intelligence? No, I'm going to be fair. I do a cosmopolitan cross of people. They weren't all New Yorkers either. So my point was, when you get done with it, it's kind of when you come out, I mean,

why would we do it? I can tell you why we wouldn't do it. We wouldn't be able to coordinate it with Congress and everywhere else. The Brits wouldn't do it because they felt like, I've got to tell NATO, I've got to tell the United States, right? So there's bureaucratic reasons why not. And then I don't see the strategic reason why we're not doing it.

Jack, MI6 and the CIA will do whatever they want. MI6 is not going to involve the parliament. All they're going to do is tell their counterparts in Langley. Look, Judge, I see we have to go out and help a bottle of cognac so I can straighten you out on the CIA that MI6 are really like.

You have no idea. I had a lawyer on my right shoulder when I became chief of Latin America and I suddenly got like three stars. They said, well, I want to introduce you to your personal lawyer. He's going to read everything you write. Okay, only in America will I tell you that happens.

So my point is the CIA doesn't do what it wants. And this is something, and I want to stop kidding around. There are hundreds of covert action operations that have been run since the beginning of the CIA's formation. And it's always been a controversy for them. I believe a really important part by every president, starting with Truman. But every one of them have been approved by the President of the United States. You cannot find one covert action operation in its history.

I have not, and I've studied this, found one that wasn't approved. After the 70s, and I don't know whether it was 76 or 74, there is no covert action operation that takes place that is not signed by the President of the United States. And the Congress. Did Joe Biden authorize American intelligence to attack the Nord Stream pipeline? Putin's not going to attack his own pipeline. That would mean he was in the city.

I'm just going to tell you, what would happen is if that was the United States, the President of the United States signed that order personally and Congress, that bastion of secrecy, would have been briefed within 72 hours. You're talking about the... What do you think the chances are that that could be a secret? Okay, you're talking about the Gang of Eight, which is the minority-majority leader in both houses and the chair and ranking member of both intelligence committees. Those are the people that would have to be briefed and briefed in a

secure skiff. You probably did those briefings. It was a different world. Let me get this straight. Congress, Republicans, Democrats actually could work together on Cold War items. There was a

unanimity of how, there might be a difference about how much you put into it. But I was never, the leaks in my experience don't come from those meetings. They come from the White House, from the executive branch. Because somebody has an axe to grind, somebody wants to, Congress is actually pretty responsible in the area you're talking about. In my experience, despite all the misgivings people have about it, I have a lot of respect for that process. A few minutes ago you mentioned Japan. Is Japan providing assistance to the Ukrainian military?

Japan's not in NATO. No, but I said earlier, and that's why you rightly corrected me. When I say we, I would include the Japanese. I would include all of our allies and the supporters in the past. So in the case of the Japanese, I don't know of any specific weapon systems that they have that would be unique that would go there. But they're voting their support. I mean, as far as I know, but I've heard nothing that would lead me to believe that they need to, but I think if asked, they probably would.

What is your view of President Biden's recent belligerence, both towards President Putin and President Xi. I mean, do we really want to get into a land war trying to defend Taiwan from the biggest military in the world? Well, we could talk style and then we could talk geopolitics, right? And if I were talking geopolitics and I was sitting down to national security in the old days when I could sit down with Democrats and Republicans in Congress,

you would say, look, and this is a really important point, Putin from his childhood believed we were the main enemy and we were out to get his Russia. In other words, he is a diehard anti-West, anti-American. He can smile at those cocktail parties, but people really misread him. Okay? So being tough with Putin, I mean, I love to mention my book in this context. I was too nice to Putin. I said he was a lousy strategic guy, but he was a good tactician. I take that back.

He's not a good tactician, but he is a thug. So I'm not too worried about the political niceties of talking to him. She has a different problem. Here you have a major economic power. We have to get along on a lot of things of interest as far as the future of this world is concerned. Putin is small potatoes on where the world is going, economically, politically.

So we need to keep working to find accommodation. But Xi, this isn't, people really, and I talk about communists, but died everywhere. It died in a certain way in China, but they are communists. The structure is a communist. It's a very, but they everywhere. It died in a certain way in China, but they are communists, the structure is communist. It's a very, but they've opened and used Western techniques, but they're not looking for freedom.

So, you know, the question of how nice you wanna be in the shape, and there's a practical side to that. When a guy declares war on your allies and declares war on you in essence, yeah, you get a different story. So there are two places. I think Teddy Roosevelt had it right, you get a different story So there are two places I think Teddy Roosevelt had it right You know

Speak softly and carry a big stick What Joe Biden is Joe Biden is not speaking softly Not about Taiwan And I don't think he has the sticks Necessary to defend Taiwan I mean, the Chinese Navy will blockade the island. We won't even be able to get troops and material there.

Listen, Judge, Putin thought, those Ukrainians, I'm going to roll right over them, right? Anytime you try and take an island, ask the people that did the bay of pigs islands are really hard to do okay we want to get to this that's not cost free you know they're not going to roll over taiwan okay uh i think if i were i think the chinese i don't want to miss say more than i know i think they looked at what happened to putin and they, well, we have a 20-year plan now. We had a five-year plan. Now we have a 20-year plan for Taiwan. I think they're reevaluated.

It's modern war. Look at this one. I mean, people have to get back and ask, how are we going to fight wars? Where's the Air Force? No, it's drones. It's javelins. It's a different battle out there. All right.

What are the big battleships and submarines going to do in Taiwan? Before we conclude, Jack, let's circle back to Ukraine. Does Putin seem to think that if he's vicious enough attacking Ukraine infrastructure and utilities, power, heat, water, that NATO and the United States will either stop getting involved or force Ukraine to a negotiating table. Is that his theory? He knows he cannot win on the battlefield. So therefore, he's not a quitter, by the way. He's going to double down. He's betting that we're weak. battlefield so therefore he's he's not gonna he's not a quitter by the way this is he's gonna he's

gonna double down he's betting that we're weak in other words he's betting just like you've described cold winter we're not going to stay the duration we're sprinters he's a long distance runner okay uh and you look at what he's doing he's firing these rockets. It's like the old days when we've had a threat, we'd shoot rockets out into the desert, right, and said, oh, there, take that. So he destroys buildings and civilians. He's not winning anything on the battlefield. It's psychological. In other words, why do I wave nuclear weapons?

Because people start cringing and getting worked. He's working to break our will psychologically. He cannot do it in a battlefield. When the flowers start popping, when the seeds pop in the spring, I want to see him sit down and analyze how right was he. And I'm going to tell you, you're going to see NATO, you're going to see the United States still supporting the Ukraine. You see them still fighting.

So you better have a plan B. Jack, one of these days we'll have a plan B and we'll talk about history. I'm fascinated with the Bay of Pigs and its domestic ramifications and the overthrow of Salvatore Allende. We'll get to that. Read my books. I've sent you autograph and i think i put them in gold the leaf the night your books yes yes yes spell out under what conditions this is the irony

of it i'm an advocate of the cia i mean they didn't ask me they don't pay me they like i like me to go away but i'm an advocate for the mission. I'm an advocate for the use of covert action before you put a big army on the ground. But I am meticulous in saying, don't do this as a lark in some movie script. This is serious stuff. And these are the 10, 15 principles. So I'm going to leave you in deep suspense about what they are in your audience. And instead of your audience getting agitated about my – My audience is agitated. I suggest they read a little bit more.

They read and they know my personality. They know I like to stir the pot. They like to stir the pot. So do I. So we have a good group here together. Jack Devine, it's a pleasure. You're a gentleman. We'll do it again soon.

Thank you, my friend. Listen, I'm telling your audience, God bless America because you are allowed to have these views that you have. Cherish them. And I welcome them. I'm not in spirit. Fire away. Have yourself a good time because God bless America and our freedoms. God bless you too, Jack.

Until the next time. Judge Napolitano for judging freedom. Judge it well.