Judging Freedom - Ukraine War Latest - Col Doug Macgregor

Episode Date: May 18, 2023

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Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Thursday, May 18th, 2023. It's about two o'clock in the afternoon here on the East Coast of the United States. There's a familiar face for you. Colonel Douglas McGregor returns to our cameras. Colonel, it's always a pleasure. Thank you for joining us. There's a lot to talk about. What is the general state of affairs militarily now since the last time we spoke about two, two and a half weeks ago? Have the Russians moved westward? Have the Ukrainians moved eastward? If so, have either of these movements been significant or has there been little change? I don't think there's been any significant movement. What we have seen, though, over the last month are a lot of attempts to attack on the Ukrainian side Russian positions without a great deal of success, frankly. Over the last

three or four days, the Ukrainians have staged some attempted counterattacks. They've lost thousands of men, large numbers of equipment. And what we see typically is the following. The Ukrainians mask some number of people, 2,000, 3,000, 4,000. They try to mask whatever artillery they have. They try to focus on a particular point in the Russian defense system. They move into this 20 to 25 kilometer security zone, which is in front of the Russian defenses. Once they move into that security zone, they're immediately targeted. If the decision is to allow them to advance, the Russian security forces in the security zone will fall back.

They fall back a few kilometers. Ukrainians advance. They are decimated by standoff attack. They are attacked on three sides. Eventually, they abandon their equipment and they're dead and they fall back. As recently as within the last 24 hours, we've seen 1,600 Ukrainian troops killed in that matter. Ooh, is that a huge number? 1,624 hours?

It seems enormous. Well, 1,600 dead is a big number under any and all circumstances. But I think in this sense, it's very important. Because if you look at the numbers available to the Ukrainian military right now, it's clear that they're bringing back the 30,000 to 35,000 Ukrainian soldiers who have been training in Germany, England, the Czech Republic, and other locations. They're bringing them back. Those are trained forces that the Ukrainians want to employ in a larger offensive.

At the same time, they are putting them together with less well-trained but available manpower. So the largest force that I've seen at any one location approaches 50,000. They wanted 80,000. I don't think they can do it, but approaches 50,000. They wanted 80,000. I don't think they can do it, but maybe 50,000. The hope is that they can focus narrowly on one particular point along the front, break through, and make a difference to the world politically to demonstrate that

they're alive, that they have an army and so forth. This has been going on from Zavarisha on the western side all the way up to Donetsk. Three or four points with, of course, our favorite location, Bakhmut, in the middle. And Bakhmut continues to be lucrative for the Russians. They're not taking any casualties, or at least if they are, they're very, very minor. A couple of colonels were killed that were forward with their brigades. But, you know, generally speaking, you're talking about Russian losses in the hundreds at the most at any given point in time. When I say losses, that's both killed and wounded, whereas the Ukrainians are leaving thousands of dead on the battlefield. Is Bakhmut still being treated by the Russians as sort of an iron claw, if you will, luring

the Ukrainians in and decimating them once they're in there? Well, it seems that's been the case. Now I'm hearing from Progozhin and others that they're going to eradicate the last Ukrainian holdouts, which are in reinforced concrete high-rise buildings. We're talking about maybe two square miles maximum of area that still have some Ukrainians in them. And there's also evidence that the Ukrainians have been attacking the roads, the one road leading into Bakhmut in the hopes ostensibly of extricating them and pulling them out. It's hard to tell. The point is that the front hasn't changed very much.

The Russians are intact. They're fresh. They're ready to fight. Ukrainians are not in very good shape and they continue to lose people, in my judgment, unnecessarily. President Zelensky has said the Ukraine's Ukraine military can push Russia out of the areas of eastern Ukraine that it occupies. Is this even conceivable? No, not at all. But I think this narrative of we're on the verge of victory, just give us a little bit more and we can fight our way through and so forth is going to continue until it can't. There's no change in the fundamental truth that their position is pretty hopeless. If you look at the strikes that have gone in within the last few days, the massive numbers of missiles, including the hypersonic missiles,

even some of the glide bombs that have been used by the Russian Air Force to decimate Ukrainian positions across from the Russian army. All of those have been on a scale that we haven't seen to date. In other words, more destructive than ever. They're not only hitting energy grid items. In other words, if you go to Zabrisha, they lost all of their electricity overnight, what they had left. You also have vast ammunition storage areas reaching from Lvov in the far west all the way to Kiev. This tells us several things. First of all, it tells us that the Russians know exactly where everything is.

They knew where the missiles were being stored, where these shadow cruise missiles that the British have given them have been stored. They know where the Patriot missile battery is or was. There are no secrets anymore because of this improved intelligence surveillance complex overhead. Is there any military or, as you perceive it wearing your other hat, political significance to the death of an American veteran in Bakhmut? Well, you have to ask Americans that question. I think it's unfortunate that he lost his life, and frankly, I don't think Americans should be serving

in uniform under other people's command. I never have. I've always opposed it. And I don't think there's any hope for it. But for one reason or another, we still have Americans over there dying who are effectively, in the eyes of the Geneva Convention, mercenaries. They're not seen as legitimate combatants by the Russians. I'm surprised that the Russians have treated them thus far as well as they have. Our friend, quote-unquote, Jack Dev Devine has argued on this program that the Russian army is disillusioned

and the Ukrainian army has high morale. Is there any basis for this from your sources? No, I see no evidence for any of it. If anything, Ukrainian morale is at an all-time low right now. People are, the population, again, yesterday I was shown evidence that there are fewer than 20 million Ukrainians left in Ukraine. Oh, that would be about half the population from a year and a half ago. Well, not half, but certainly substantially less. There were 34, at least in theory, 34.5 million people in Ukraine. Okay. I thought it was 40. Right. And so now we're down to less than 20. I had, I'd heard those things previously. I was never quite sure. That's why I used to say between 18 and 24, but now I'm told that it's very definitely below 20 million. And again,

everybody leaving makes it abundantly clear when they come out, at least the ones we interviewed that go west. And that means about 10 plus million that they're not coming back. Here's Jack Devine's opinion of Russian military leadership. There's a little bit of nuance in here. You're not going to be surprised where he ends up, but take a listen. Does the American intel community have respect for the Russian military leadership as professional military leaders? I mean, there's probably high quality people and well-trained. I'm not, I don't want to demean this, but I think that there's a time warp. And I think they're stuck in this time warp of an old war where our generals have been fighting and our troops have been fighting for 20 years nonstop. And they have the best techniques, the best strategies.

They know the modern warfare. So it's not that they don't have the caliber of people. They built the wrong army for the wrong time and have the wrong strategy. Outside of that, it takes more than being tough and good. You have to have a strategy. You have to have the right equipment. And it's not working out. Well, if anybody doesn't have a strategy, it's us.

You know, we're the ones that were arrogant and self-important and concluded that Russia was this place. What was it called by Senator McCain? Spain with a gas station? That the Russians were incapable, untrained, incompetently led. We've been hurling these insults at the Russians from day one. What we've seen instead is the opposite. But what he doesn't seem to understand is that President Putin, in contrast to us, is not impulsive. He's not emotional. He's moved very deliberately and very cautiously. He has resisted the temptation to smash everything in sight. He wants to negotiate. I mean, that's abundantly clear.

And I think he's got 150,000 troops sitting up in white Russia that are poised to strike south, largely as an insurance guarantee against our impulsive tendency to try and intervene in western Ukraine. If we do, they'll suddenly come to life and strike south. At the same time, I think he's perfectly comfortable waiting for the Ukrainians to dash themselves to pieces. I think that's pretty much what the strategy at this point is. I think it's almost over. But remember, they destroyed the bridge, the main traffic bridge. It could have carried tanks and artillery and everything else over the river between Moldova and Ukraine in southern Ukraine. That was critical. If you're going to move

anything from Romania that's there, American or NATO allied Romanian, it's over. You can't do it. You have to then conduct a river crossing, which is something we're notoriously bad at doing. So it looks to me like Odessa is largely isolated and being prepared for attack. I think Kiev is in ruins and being prepared for attack. And I think the Russians will move on those. And when they do, they will move very slowly, deliberately with their ground force behind this massive strike system that they've got linked to overhead intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance. What we need to think about right now is what are the consequences of moving munitions like these DU rounds into Ukraine? Now, we haven't poisoned the entire portion of eastern Ukraine,

but I think we can say with some certainty right now that the DU rounds have created radiation because they were detonated along with the large... DU is depleted uranium. Depleted uranium, yeah. And it's not that you're going to go over there and immediately contract cancer, but there... And it's not the gamma radiation that's getting a lot of attention. It's really the alpha particles. As these particles settle from the atmosphere down in the Ukrainian soil in the vicinity of that Helminski ammunition storage area, it could be 10 or 15 years before you can farm in that soil.

And that's tragic since that's some of the best soil in the world. Now that's only maybe a 50 square mile area, but that's still significant. Do we use a depleted uranium or did this come from the British? Oh, I think it came from the British, but we were the ones that developed the round originally that was used elsewhere. And again, if you're looking at residue from a DU round on a tank round, for instance, on the battlefield, in order to contract cancer, you've got to pick up the residue and eat it. And yeah, you'll eventually get cancer.

This is different. We're now talking about particles in the atmosphere settling into the soil. And these are alpha particles. Those things will be gone in 10 or 15 years. But for the moment, in the vicinity of that ammo storage area, the soil is not permanently but contaminated for 10 to 15 years. If I were sitting in Kiev right now, I would be very concerned about that. Well, why would Kiev even bring something this dangerous and suicidal into the military theater? There's an easy answer to that question. It's called desperation.

They're desperate. I mean, how many hundreds of thousands of people have they lost? We're now seeing people finally admit publicly in a series of publications, well, we've had at least 300,000 Ukrainian dead in terms of soldiers. I think it's much higher now. I think it's probably closer to 350,000. I don't know how many thousands of civilians have ended up being collateral damage as a result of these Russian strikes. The Russians have tried to avoid that. They have not deliberately killed civilians. That's a lot of nonsense.

But the point is a war is a war. And if you're going to destroy a Patriot missile battery in the vicinity of Kiev, which is effectively what has just happened, you're going to end up killing some people that are nearby. They're civilians. You're obviously going to kill contractors. I'm sure we probably lost some people who were there under contract. Some of your former colleagues, maybe they're your friends,

they're people I know and respect by reputation. A few of them have been on this show, recently signed a letter which was published in the New York Times that referred to President Biden's we're with you as long as it takes as ill-defined, unachievable, and leading to an unmitigated disaster. Were you surprised to see these former military people say this and will it have any effect? Well, the answer to the first question is yes. And the answer to the second question is no, it's not going to make any difference to the

Biden administration. They're going to continue doing whatever they're doing. They're never going to admit that they made a terrible mistake. And yes, they have no strategy. Their strategy was to harm Russia and they're willing to destroy the Ukrainian nation in order to achieve that objective. Well, objective number one, harm Russia, hasn't worked. The sanctions are an abysmal failure. The Russian military is now larger, stronger, and more capable than it's ever been. The only people with a strategy are sitting in the Kremlin, and their strategy is very clear. We will have a neutral Ukraine. Ukraine is not going to join NATO. And if Ukraine is to exist at all, it will have to be

neutral. Eventually, people in Warsaw, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, the people that border this place, they're all going to say, it's time to stop. The Russians are winning. They're going to get what they want. Do you think the West, Western Europe and the more sensible people in the Biden administration are getting tired of the war? There's no one sensible at the national level. Places like Berlin, Paris, London, forget it. They've lost their minds. The same thing is true, sadly, in Helsinki, Stockholm, Oslo. They're out of touch with reality. The populations are different. The Germans have had it with this ridiculous war. They don't want any part of it. They don't want to send any

soldiers over there. They're not sure they want to send any equipment. I think if you'd have put it in a referendum in Germany to begin with, and people had been allowed to tell the truth, I don't think a single German tank would have ever reached Russia. I mean, imagine sending tanks with the German Iron Cross painted on the side into Russia at this point. It's insane. The Germans know that. They don't want anything to do with that. The Poles were the outliers, and here's the good news. The Polish population is turning against this whole thing. They're overwhelmed with millions of Ukrainian refugees. They talk about being Ukrainianized.

This is not going down well. I think the populations, if they get their way, will stop it. The folks who published that letter that I just mentioned and about which you've just commented also published two maps, one an actual map and one a hypothetical. all the U.S. and NATO military bases from Great Britain all the way down to Turkey and everywhere in between, all aimed at Moscow. Obviously, the Russians know this. You even see it in Northern Africa. I mean, with the exception of France and Spain and Portugal, it's everywhere. It doesn't even show Poland, but we know that there's

missiles there as well. Well, it shows Poland and there are Aegis missiles. Oh, it's my old eyes. I'm sorry. It doesn't show Belarus. Okay. Got it. Yeah. But I mean, if you look at Ukraine right now and you understand that the Eastern end of Ukraine was to be the site of new missiles and new forces from NATO, it becomes entirely understandable why the Russians said enough is enough, and why Belarus and Russia are now united in resisting the NATOization, if you will, of Ukraine. I mean, it's obvious. It's all aimed at Russia. By the way, just from an historical vantage point, it might be interesting for your viewers to know that

when Eisenhower looked at the same map that we're viewing right now, his argument was we need to limit our commitment of capability, in other words, ground forces and missiles and so forth, to Norway and North Africa. Because at that point in time, when Europe was divided, he said the Soviets will overrun everything because we can't possibly stop millions of Soviet troops. Well, that's changed now. They're gone. The Russian military is very different today from what it was in Eisenhower's time. And the Russians have no aspirations to attack anybody in the West. They want to do business with everybody in the West. The big business that they want to.

Here's the hypothetical map of what the same proximity and number of missiles would look like if surrounding the United States in Canada, in Mexico, in Cuba. Oh, that's true. The only problem with the Canadian one is the missiles are in the wrong direction. They're not aimed at Detroit or Chicago or New York or D.C., but you can get the point. How would we react?

It would start World War III if the Russians had missiles or the Chinese had missiles like that. Well, of course, what we don't bother telling people is if you look in the Pacific and in the Atlantic off the coast of the United States, there are large numbers of submarines. The Russian submarines now can compensate for the absence of Russian missile forces or ground forces in either Canada or Mexico. We don't seem to understand how vulnerable we are. This is back to the problem of, you know, what if we used a nuclear weapon, a tactical nuclear weapon? Well, you've got submarines sitting in the Atlantic right now and the Pacific that'll simply push a button and the missiles will fly. Everything has changed. Warfare has changed. The whole idea of garrisoning people's countries on the periphery of another country,

it's anachronistic thinking. They're sitting ducks in the future. Before we sign off, the time with you goes by so fast. There's so much information for which my viewers and I are deeply grateful i want to talk a little bit about this character of progosian first i want to show him ranting and raving and attacking personally the russian defense minister and the russian uh chief of staff and you'll see clearly his use of the F-bomb numerous times.

He's standing in front of what he says are dead bodies of Wagner fighters. The background is blurred by the folks that sent us this tape, but you'll see bitter personal animosity. Then we'll run him also being critical of the Russian leadership, but a little calmer. By the way, before we analyze Purgosian, do you know what the reference is to redwood cabinets? Is that maybe a dacha on the Black Sea? Well, certainly dacha-like. Whether it's on the Black Sea or not, I don't know.

Okay. So we need to understand something about Russians. For instance, Russians can be very vulgar. I mean, when they get angry and they swear and so forth, as opposed to, let's say, Germans, almost never. It's like an enraged Italian in Palermo. You have it with both barrels. But that's not going to happen to you probably up in Trieste.

It's not going to happen. Different ways of doing business. So the Russian population listening to this eats this up. This is almost a good campaign speech if Mr. Prokosian thinks he's going to be a future candidate for office. What does the defense minister and the Russian chief of staff mentioned by name in very bitter tones, what do they think of it or don't they care? Well, General Gerasimov is a very intelligent and professional thinker and soldier. And he's going to look at this and say, well, you know, what do you expect from Prokofiev?

He's not a professional soldier. He's not part of our profession. He is a political military figure with ambitions. Gerasimov is not. He's at the top of the paradigm. You know, he's trying to manage the entire theater and all the assets involved. It's useful to point out that General Sorovikin, who is someone that large numbers of people in Russia admire for his professional knowledge, understanding, and conduct of the operation. He's the one who's been launching these strikes with great effectiveness. He's been told, manage Progozhin's ammunition requirements,

fix it. And I think that's happened. All right. here's Progozhin this one I'll I will read the subtitles here's Progozhin again a little calmer but a little bit of nuanced criticism of Russian leadership there are about 20 houses left to take

and Bakhmut would be taken completely but the occupation of Bakhmut would be taken completely. But the occupation of Bakhmut gives nothing to the Russian Federation. Because the flanks are crumbling, the front is collapsing. And attempts by the Defense Ministry to publish statements to make things look better are and will bring an overall tragedy for Russia. They need to stop lying right away. If you have fled, build new defense lines. Who's he talking to?

He's talking to the Russian people. He's telling them, look, I'm your man on the ground. I'm pounding the enemy. I'm the one who will kill your enemies for you. The Russian generals are too conservative. They're too timid. So give me more and let me go and I'll win the war for you. I mean, literally, that's the message that he's trying to send. The truth is that the flanks have not crumbled, and those flanks were rapidly reinforced by various Russian regular army units. But this is the thing that has offended and annoyed the Russian military about Prokosian, that, you know, fine, you want to be Minister of Defense after the war is over, that's your

privilege, but don't run for office right now. Shut up and get on with it. I think Sorovikin has been tasked with the mission of managing him and keeping him focused on what's important. Now, let's be frank. His force is not a mercenary force. I think I've said this before. He's more like the commander of a large foreign legion. He's got large numbers of Serbs in his organization, as well this before. He's more like the commander of a large foreign legion. He's got large numbers of Serbs in his organization as well as Russians. He's got Ukrainians in his organization. And these people are very competent, very professional. They're fighting, you know, with great devotion for Russia.

And that's why Putin tolerates him. And Kadyrov, who is a Chechen, he's brought in some of his forces and is ready to replace Prokosian's forces to give them a rest when the time comes, because I know that President Putin and I'm sure Gerasimov want to use Prokosian's force, the Wagner group elsewhere when the offensives begin. So the bottom line is this is not a Soviet army. This is more like a Tsarist army. And the Tsarist armies have always had these very dramatic personalities. You know, Kutuzov was very famous for his speeches to the troops and haranguing the troops and talking to the Russian people directly. Even Tsar Alexander I at the time didn't like him very much, but Kutuzov knew what he was

doing and was competent, so he kept him. I think that's what you're dealing with right now. And then there's also another element that is worthy of discussion. I think it may be that Larry Johnson has brought this up, or perhaps Phil Giraldi. They're more knowledgeable about this than I am. Some of this may be deliberate disinformation. Who knows? To encourage the Ukrainians to shed more blood and waste more lives and equipment. Well, clearly, the Washington Post, I guess we can stop right there and just say CIA, reports that Prokosian offered to commit an act of treason, revealing to the Ukrainian forces the location, size, and movement of Russian troops if the Ukrainians left Bakhmut. Surely that's disinformation. He'd be in Siberia

now if he even lived long enough to get there, if that were true. Well, it's a blatant lie, and you're right. He'd have already been shot through the head and been dispatched, and Prokofiev is a patriot. He would never do such a thing. That's complete nonsense. It's got to separate the bluster from the reality. Right. Before we go, where do you see the war in six or eight months? I think it's going to reach a point where the Europeans will ultimately intervene and demand that it stop. But between now and then, Odessa and Kharkov will once again become Russian cities.

They are historically Russian. Everything that was historically Russian will be taken. That will be captured over the next couple of months. Whether or not the Russians move across the river and head west to the Polish border is a function of what the Europeans do because we're not going to do anything. No one is going to stand up and say,

gee, we made a big mistake. Oh, by the way, we don't have six or 700,000 U.S. troops to send. Oh, by the way, we can't keep up with the munitions requirements, the missile requirements. I mean, somebody said to me the other day, what do you think of this Admiral Aquilino who talked effectively about a two-front war? Well, I said, we could fight a two-front war if it only lasts a week

because after a week, we don't have any more ammunition. So who are we kidding? This is all nonsensical. And again, I go back to what President Trump has said and RFK Jr. Both of them said we need to end it. Let's arrange talks. No preconditions. Well, let's not forget who said we need to end it before they did,

and that is you. Yes, that's right. Colonel McGregor, it's a pleasure. Welcome back. Thank you so much for joining us. Thank you, Judge. Good to be back. All the best. Bye-bye. There you have it. Like, subscribe, tell your friends. More as we get it. Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom.