Judging Freedom - Ukraine's Desperate Situation, What's Next? w/Jack Devine

Episode Date: July 11, 2023

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Thank you. Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Monday, July 10, 2023. Jack Devine joins us now. Jack, always a pleasure. Thank you for coming back here. So the more we learn about this fellow Yevgeny Prokhozhin, the weirder these things seem. Last week, we all saw photos of his offices and maybe his home being raided by the FSB. And this morning, the Kremlin announced that President Putin had Mr. Prokofiev and his 35 leading military commanders in the Pentagon for a meeting for three hours. So I know it's hard to get a handle on this. But what do you think?

Was the march from Rostov on Don up to Moscow a charade, a temper tantrum, or a coup gone wrong? I think it was a very serious development. I don't think it was a coup at all, but it could have rolled into a coup for sure. So no, it was the real thing. The problem is I don't think either Putin or Rogozhin were ready for what was next. One of the things that's intriguing about Putin, I always said this before to your audience, I overrated his skills and planning and so on, that he allowed Rogozhin to grow into such a force. And now look how he has to deal with

them. And again, this is no Machiavelli he'd like to be, but the strategic part, he looks very weak. Now, it's odd that they would make such a detailed statement and it not take place because in so many ways, at least, maybe there was a trap door and they hit a button or they would, but I can't even imagine that Putin did it. But my mind says the way it was queued up, it may indeed have happened. And if so, how weak can you get? Well, Prokhorin's people killed Russian troops. They shot down some helicopters. So the people that did the shooting must have thought they were participating in a coup. This is Russian on Russian in Russia. Well, they were ready for it.

I think that, I think, as my understanding, and I think we've seen this all in print and small print, but, you know, he was planning something, right? But I think he was, the original plan was that he was going to take Shugan when he arrived and kidnap him, right, and hold him hostage. It was that kind of crazy thing. And I've seen this before in other countries where people think that this is a good move.

Progrosian himself is not a great strategist. So I don't think it was the coup as you and I would define it in most historical context. When the CIA and their other intelligence community colleagues briefed the gang of eight, you know, the chair and ranking members of the two congressional intelligence committees and the leading Republican and leading Democrat in both houses, the Congress within a Congress, on Wednesday before the Saturday when this happened. What do you think they told them? Well, I think there's an obligation, I think, to go down and keep, as it should be, to go down and brief the Congress. I'm a strong believer in oversight because of the elected representatives of the country. You keep it to eight, and my experience with the eight, and frankly, with Congress in general, the committee, the intelligence committees,

they're relatively, comparatively, much fewer out of the Congress than there are out of the executive branch. So I think they probably told them what they had, which is we've got a lot of indication that something's coming, exactly what the shape of that's going to look, but we should be ready. And it could, it could spin out of control. I mean, I don't know, and nor would I share it if I knew exactly what they said, but I would think given what happened, they had intelligence, that was clear, and they briefed it to the best of their knowledge. You have been a student of Putin for a long time. What do you think he does with Prokofiev?

Wins him over or prosecutes him for treason or something else? My concern is he is playing it day by day. I really wonder how much of a skillsman he is. I think what he's doing is what he thinks he has to do, which is what I said on your last show. Just placate them for a while. Get them to back off.

Humor them. Bring them into the fold. Get them dispersed. Weaken them. Wagner is still a very powerful. The more you read, the more you study it, the deeper into the society, not the society, into the roots of the country. It's not just him. It's the whole system.

So he has to handle this carefully. But for the reasons you stated, he can't count on a political leadership future in Russia. And I'll make that like kind of a soft statement. But what they're doing now is they probably do not let anybody. Hold on. Who can't count on a political future? Prokosian or Putin? Prokosian. Well, neither. But I think Putin is much longer.

But I'll tell you who's not in the room is the Air Force, because it was their helicopters and their people shot down. There's no way they're breaking bread or having crumpets and tea with them. So there's some real heavy scar tissue. But he is wise, because of the uncertainty, to try and shut down Proigozhin's efforts in one swoop, because I don't think he has the control over it. So I think it's, it's,

all of this is a sign of weakness from where I sit and I've been saying this all along, but it's much, much worse than I thought and that his, his future is dimmer than I think. I know a lot of city, a lot of people say, Oh, you can't say anything. Someone told me today that, you know, you can't predict anything because nothing is knowable. I said, well, what do you say then? Nothing?

So is it true that the reason that President Biden is giving the Ukrainians cluster munitions is because we've run out of artillery shells to give them. And if that is true, isn't it dangerous that we depleted our own supply for our own needs, for our own defensive purposes or the defenses of people with whom we have treaties in order to get involved in this mess? I think there's a couple of really good questions in there, Judge. The ammunition has been depleted. Not that it's all gone. There's going to of really good questions in there, Judge. The ammunition has been depleted. Not that it's all gone.

There's going to be surely shells coming in. But the world supply is shrinking. Putin faces the same problem, his ammunition. So I think what I would say on the critical side is, despite my book, Spymaster's Prism, when I said we're going to go back into nation-state type of confrontations, we weren't prepared for a land war. Neither was Europe. Europe was ready for about two weeks of this. So no one was ready for it, and Putin obviously wasn't ready for it.

So I think that is a key issue. The ammunition is depleting. But I think the cluster weapons, first of all, well, I'm surprised that very few people are commenting, the Russians not only have cluster weapons, they're using them in Ukraine, right? So, and I think the sense of, I'm reading it, you know, how they can break through on the offensive is that the cluster bombs will help do that. But it is true, Jack, is it not, that the Ukrainians haven't even broken through the first of three rings of defensive fortifications that the Russians have built? And the so-called spring offensive has gone nowhere. Now they're going to add cluster bombs to it?

The three rings, I mean, I don't know what they're talking about. It's maybe the three rings around Saturn. But my point is, everything I read, the Ukrainians are making, it just isn't what everyone anticipated. I told you a standstill of consistent would be still a win because they're holding them up. I think there's an opportunity because of the way they built trenches. They dug in, right? They had a year, 500 days to dig in. And the question is, how do you do this in a way that you can move your forces into play?

And they're saying we need the cluster bombs. But remember, they're using them. Here's President Biden's press secretary a year ago, before she went to MSNBC as a commentator, characterized Jen Psaki, whom I know and of whom I'm fond, although we disagree on so many things, characterizing the use of cluster bombs when the Russians use them as a war crime. There are reports of illegal cluster bombs and vacuum bombs being used by the Russians. If that's true, what is the next step of this administration? And is there a red line for how much violence will be tolerated against civilians in this manner that's illegal and potentially a war crime? It is.

It would be. I don't have any confirmation of that. We have seen the reports. If that were true, it would potentially be a war crime. Obviously, there are a range of international fora that would assess that. So certainly we would look to that to be a part of that conversation. So let me address that. All right. A war crime for thee, but not for me.

Let me just address this in three or four points real quick. One is we never signed that agreement, right? We're not part of that. Neither did the Russians. The Russians are using it. What did the head of NATO say yesterday? He said, you know, we are where we are, but we are not telling countries how to fight. We just think that this is a bad weapon. Judge, how many weapons are bad? I mean, how many are morally

questionable? You have to talk about the circumstances, right? So I view this as you're in a fight and the other guy is using both hands and you have one behind you. And I think the second thing is the Russians just used them either yesterday or the day before. Guess what they hit? Civilians. I think the way the administration is allocating this, it'll be, you know, there'll be oversight of the targets. Now, things go wrong in war. Jack, that is hogwash. You're in war. There's no oversight of the targets.

Of course civilians are going to be killed. The weapon is designed to kill civilians, to send these bombs. Some weapons are. Some weapons are. Right? Now, in the case of the Ukrainians, I think they really want to get the Russian soldiers out of the way. They're not trying to do it. Putin is bombing every city that he can reach, right? So there's a world of difference here.

So the question about, there is an issue about the cluster bomb, which is quite different, which is a lot of this ammunition may end up on the ground, just like the indiscriminate mining. And this is going to be a problem. Right. Right. There is a multibillion dollar task of demining acre by acre, foot by foot. But if this right now, you know, people were worried about if you do this, Putin is going to react. How is he going to react? We've now gotten to a point where policymakers, the majority of them, not necessarily everyone that you talk to, but that they're worried about what can Putin do right now.

What is Putin going to do? Start using cluster bombs? He's already using them. So I think if it's used for the purpose described to take on the troops and make a breakthrough and the other guys using it, I'm not seized with it. Am I not? Here's Admiral Kirby on why cluster bombs are banned in most of the world, who, for the most part, agrees with you, Jack. Take a listen.

I want to ask you why the U.S. has never banned them before. We are very mindful of the concerns about civilian casualties and unexploded ordinance being picked up by civilians or children and being hurt. Of course, we're mindful of that. And we're gonna focus with Ukraine on demining efforts. In fact, we're doing it right now and we will when war conditions permit. But these munitions do provide a useful battlefield capability. And I will remind that while Russia is using them in Ukraine in an aggressive war on another country and indiscriminately killing civilians, the Ukrainians will be using these cluster munitions, obviously, which have a very low dud rate, but they'll be using them to defend their own territory, hitting Russian positions. I did not write his speech. I want to get

right on record right now. I did not write it, but certainly comfortable with it. You're comfortable with that? Oh, yeah. No, this is... You're comfortable with these little bomblets out there for children to pick up, Jack? Judge, judge, I'm not comfortable with any bomb. I'm not comfortable with mining. I'm not comfortable with any of this stuff. As you so artfully said a few minutes ago, it's war. But what he said and what I said,

and you are more skeptical about it, is will there be oversight that the intent is to use this in military context, not indiscriminate? It's a big point he made, and it's a big one I'm making. And I have a much more confidence. You know, we use drones around the world. And, you know, there's an oversight process. A drone is one thing, but I'm just saying there is oversight. This is not a decision made lightly.

And I applaud them for doing it because they're getting the flag. But, you know, you got to look at the, I think he gave a really good statement there. I'm not always pleased with statements made from that podium, but that one sounded pretty right to me. Here's President Zelensky on whether or not he will ever concede Crimea. Jack, you can't agree with this, but let's see. Wait a minute. I may be on a roll here today on what you're offering up. Take a listen, Jack.

Let's see. Six months ago, you said you would not cede any territory to Russia to end this war. We're now 16 months in. Is your answer the same? Yes. No territory? No Crimea end this war. We're now 16 months in. Is your answer the same? Yes. No territory, no Crimea. No territory. Crimea is our territory. Well, the only thing I would disagree with you is I would say, no, your mission is to go get it.

Well, he's being unrealistic if he thinks he can return Crimea to the jurisdiction of Ukraine using military might. Don't you agree? I think you've already conceded that in some of our past. I don't concede. Do I concede? I don't have any white flags in this room. Do you think it is feasible? room. Jack, is it feasible for the Ukrainians with American military help, not boots on the ground, to take Crimea? We're talking today, the answer is no. But we've been at it 500 days. Most people

thought it would last five days. How this war ends is going to be very interesting and somewhat unpredictable, although I'm submitting, I'm of the view that Russia, key point we're going to have to watch, is when is there a general view that this has been a failure in Russia? Well, you have said, now don't let me put words in your mouth, I know you won't, it will end when both sides agree it's a stalemate, when neither side can move, right? Right, but there's a footnote, which is, it's more important in Russia that it be recognized as a stalemate and a failure. That's where the politics change. The politics are not going to change in Ukraine, but the point is basically, it may be a nuance without a difference. If I were to ask President Zelensky whatever happened to the spring offensive, here's his answer. Zelensky on the spring offensive.

What is your assessment of how the counter offensive is going right now now the loss all of us? We want to do it faster because every day means new losses Ukrainians we are advancing we are not stuck in one place We've already overtaken the initiative several months ago in some places in the east We had to retreat in some places in the east we had to retreat. In some other communities we would regain lost ground. But it was kind of a stagnation, meaning loss of manpower and equipment. And of course we would all like to see the counter-offensive accomplished in a shorter period of time. But there is reality. Today, the initiative is on our side.

There is reality. He doesn't have the manpower and he doesn't have the equipment to do it, but he's putting on the best face he can. No, first of all, sometimes people do sighted geography and size. We're talking a front of 600 miles, okay? The Ukrainian is going to charge over 600 miles? No. My understanding from people that I respect

in terms of looking, they think the Ukrainians are doing it the way you need to do it under these conditions. And they're looking for where the opportunity is. And I believe that's going on. You know, the Valley of the Death, you know, Valley of the Pallum, you know, I forget the title, but the Valley of Death where the 600 march in or whatever. You know, or during World War I, you discharge. I think this is a very sophisticated way of conducting the offensive.

Again, I, you know, your audience has been with me for a long time. I've never said big offensive. I do think there's going to be some surprises on the positive side. So I'm not signing up. It hasn't been – they haven't made progress. They have. Less than they wanted, less than everybody else wanted. But I'm telling you, it's not too much off where I was. Well, I have some

hope here that this season will end with some progress, particularly Do you and your CIA buddies have hope for American troops on the ground because President Biden has just sent a few thousand to Poland and

Romania? My grandson's one of them. So my response to you is, I'll leave the CIA alone, but they certainly are in accord with the President of the United States, and we're not going to put U.S. troops on the ground. I'm not for that. Why are you not for that, Jack, if you want us to use Ukraine as a battering ram to drive Putin from office? No, let's get our history right. The Russians invaded Ukraine, and we're trying to hold them up. It's not a battering ram that we decided, woke up one morning and said, let's go get Russia. Let's get our history right, which is sort of indisputable on what happened when he put his 180,000-man army and marched in to bad effect.

But I don't think American troops are needed. I'm a big advocate of almost never putting troops on. If a local group is fighting and we agree, our national interest and our public sentiment is in agreement that this is the U.S. interest and it's also for the Western world, or the world for that matter, being helpful. So I don't have a problem with it. If anybody in the audience thinks the Russians are the good guys, good luck. Do you think that the Ukrainian forces can drive the Russians out of Ukraine? What I've said all along is just hold them and they will collapse. Just hold them. They don't have to drive them out. That's an American view. Drive them out. I'm saying you hold them and Putin will fall and you'll cut a new deal. I've been consistent at the discussion, driving them out.

Will they be able to regain their territories? I believe that that's a possibility, not a probability, possibility. Jack Devine, always a pleasure, my dear man. You're lighting up the commenters today. I can't figure out which one. Oh, man. I can't repeat this stuff or YouTube will take us down. But it's funny when they go at each other and they use you as the battering ram.

Well, poor folks that are using me. They better get a new stick, a fresh twig. Thank you, Jack. We'll be back to you soon. All the best. Thank you, my dear friends. Colonel McGregor will have a different view of all this in 20 minutes. More as we get it. Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom. Thank you.