Judging Freedom - U.S. or NATO Changed Strategy since the Russian Rebellion_ w_Alastair Crooke

Episode Date: June 27, 2023

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Thanks for watching! Hi everyone, Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Tuesday, June 27th, 2023. It's about 10.30 in the morning here on the east coast of the United States, 4.30 in the afternoon in Italy, from which our esteemed guest Alistair Crook joins us. Alistair, always a pleasure. Thank you very much for joining us. You have a fascinating piece out this week called The Negotiator's Nightmare, which analyzes better than I have seen anywhere the difficulties that a negotiator would face trying to bring the Russians and the Ukrainians and the Americans to the same negotiating table. But before we get to that, I must ask you about what can only be characterized as bizarre events

over the weekend involving Yevgeny Prokhorin and the Wagner Group and the march from Rostov-on-Don up toward Moscow. So first, what is your take on what happened over the weekend? And second, what is the Western European take on what happened over the weekend? First of all, first of all, I mean, this was basically theater in the sense we started off with Prigozhin. For the last six months, he's been uttering one complaint after another against the military command in Moscow, attacking

it and saying it's incompetent, it's useless. And this has been going on for six months. And what is a little bit bizarre, a bit uncertain, is no action was taken during this period, none at all. And so we're not quite sure. Maybe what was happening affected him and prompted him into this action in that recently the Ministry of Defence had announced a regulation that was effectively going to strip him of the Wagner Group. It was going to take it and incorporate it into the MOD.

And, of course, he made a lot of money out it and incorporate it into the MOD. And of course, he made a lot of money out of Wagner when it was first started. But they also started cutting the contracts. And those contracts were what made him prosperous in the first place in St. Petersburg, when he provided provisions to the military forces. That's how he made his money. He went from supermarkets into providing provisioning for the military. And then he got this contract, and then he started Wagner. And this would have left him with nothing. And it's possible that this was a sort of a reaction to that,

a very strong emotional reaction. He'd always felt that the system was against him, and he was a very volatile man. Anyway, but nothing really quite explains the language that he was using in that last day, and in the video when he suggested the command, the defense command, had killed his troops and bombed them and killed them. And then he went on in a video to say, you know, that they were misleading. Putin was a dupe and that they were misleading Putin and the Russian people. And this was the reason for the insurgency, an insurgency, if you like, of defiance. But on the other hand,

I mean, were there other motives? Were there other issues behind it? You know, we don't know. It really is an enigma, this issue, enigma wrapped in a riddle, really. So when he made all these complaints against the military establishment, for them, was it like swatting a fly off your shoulder or was this someone who was seriously upsetting their uh their equilibrium look i don't think there's any doubt i mean you know russia has an effective um intelligence system all the the leaders i mean mean, he founded the Wagner Group with a GRU military intelligence officer, Dimitri, and they are the commanders of Wagner, and mostly it's the sort of off-branch of this. So I think the military must have been following all of this and knowing it. And this is something of the riddle, if you like. I mean, no action was,

he's made these comments, he attacked, I mean, not quite Putin specifically, he was quite careful, but he said, you know, they were duping him, they were misleading him and the Russian people. And this was outrageous, and that we had to save them, save Putin from himself in a certain way. He was suggesting that. But I mean, the things he was saying at the end were so patently false, so wrong. He was saying that the Ukrainians were winning on the battlefield, the Russian forces were retreating everywhere and they were making advances, and this brought immediate retaliation from the troops on the ground. In all those villages, he said, had now been taken by the Ukrainians, then the regular

forces, the commanders there, each put out their video to say, nonsense, I'm here, it's peaceful, there's no Ukrainian, we haven't retreated anywhere along this line. What's he talking about? That's the question, what was he talking about? How did this play out in the European media, in Great Britain, in France, in Germany, in Switzerland and Italy? Well, as you can imagine, just like in the United States, the sort of the neocon part of our very controlled media was for a moment, I mean, in places like the UK, I mean, it was in sort of delirium with excitement that, you know, this was coming.

This was the pièce de résistance. I mean, after the offensive now, Russia was going to be in complete chaos. There was going to be civil war. It was the end of Putin. This was wonderful. You know, now we can put aside, we don't have to worry so much about the Ukrainian offensive because we've got Putin in the sights and he's going to be destroyed in the civil war. And then suddenly, nothing happened. Within a few hours, there was a negotiation, all settled. No one is being

punished. No one is having any, being imprisoned or arrested or anything like that. Grigoryan has gone to Belarus with a number of the Wagner. Wagner is going to be reformed and changed a little bit in its format, but it'll be brought in under the Ministry of Defense. So there'll be some reforms. But after all that excitement among some sectors of the West who were hoping that this was going to be the moment that, you know, they'd all been longing for when Russia would be broken up and collapse. And then they suddenly got the message, oh, there's been a negotiation.

Everything's settled. They're going back to Ukraine. The forces, the convoy en route to Moscow is turning around and going home. And I don't think those people in Europe know what to think about it. They're singing, my God, how did this happen? Was it real? In your opinion, was CIA and MI6 behind this or involved in it? I mean, we don't know, but you will remember because I think you yourself mentioned it some time ago, perhaps one of our

first contacts in those leaks from Jack Teixeira, those documents from then. In that time, there was comments in those Discord leaks that Prigozhin was passing details of deployments to Kiev. And the Washington Post then went on to say that, yes, indeed, two Ukrainians had confirmed to Washington Post that he was offering details of deployment. Now, look, is that something serious or not? I mean, in the sense that, you know, everyone knows where the deployments are. They have satellites everywhere, things like this. There is an old term for it, chicken feed. You know, you give someone something that seems to be valuable,

but maybe not as valuable as they imagine it to be. We don't know. This is part of the enigma, whether other hands in this, whether other interests in it. And we have to see. But it was no secret. I mean, he said it himself. He was in touch with other services.

I mean, sometimes that does happen with, you know, commanders. It's not that rare. But was there more to it? We have to wait and see. Here's Mr. Progozhin from Belarus. Now, it's audio only with just a photograph of him. This is what he released yesterday. I will read the subtitles and then be anxious to hear your thoughts on what he had to say.

We started our march because of injustice. On the way, we did not kill a single soldier on the ground. In a day, we were only 200 kilometers away from Moscow. We entered and completely took control of the city of Rostov. The civilians were glad to see us. We showed a master class on how 24 February 2022 should have looked. We did not have the goal of throwing out the existing regime and the legally elected government, which we said many times. We turned around in order not to shed the blood of Russian soldiers. In order not to shed the blood of Russian soldiers. In a minute, I'll play a clip of President Putin on Monday night.

He ended with almost the exact same phrase. How long for the world do you think Mr. Pogosian is, Alistair? Oh, I think he's going to be around for a long time. As I say, he's for the six months. I mean, you know, if I'd been saying some of the things that he's been saying about a government, I would be in deep trouble. But this has been going on for six months. And lately, it's become much more in the last day before the thing. And then suddenly, you know, having said this was about getting rid of Shoy

Ogul, getting rid of Gerasimov, these are the two most senior generals in the military command, suddenly he turns around and says it was nothing to do with that at all. It was really just to try and encourage people to have a more efficient and more effective approach to the war. What happened in that period? One theory is that he felt, found himself unexpectedly alone in this process with no support whatsoever, or alternatively, you know, the idea had been he did his part and that was, you know, and then he realized it was time to stop it. We don't know the outcome. I think there are lots of inwardnesses and lots of interests

that are having to be protected at this time. And it's difficult to go too far in looking at it because, you know, there are apparently Biden has given assurances to Russia that the United States was not involved. Let's leave it open, but give them that assurances. I think asking for Russia to give assurances that Putin wouldn't be blaming the United States specifically for this. Great, great, great. There's precaution to be taken care of. There is the interests of Shoigu, the interests of the establishment, the defense establishment.

All these things means that I don't think we should take things too literally. I think we have to take them understanding that there are inwardnesses and processes that are needing protection during this period. It undoubtedly is much more complex than is apparent at this moment. Here's President Putin last night addressing the Russian people. The mutineers betrayed their country, their people, and they betrayed those who they dragged into this affair, who they pushed to shoot at their comrades. It is this fratricide that the new Nazis in Kiev and their Western masters wanted to see, and the various traitors as well. They wanted to see Russian soldiers kill each other. They wanted to see Russian servicemen and civilians die, and ultimately to see Russia defeated. And the Russian society split apart. So, since the very beginning, I gave orders to prevent bloodshed, and we needed time for that.

Including to give an opportunity to those who realize they've made a mistake, to rethink their decision, to realize that they're putting society at risk, and that this is leading to destructive consequences as a result of this reckless affair. I thank the soldiers and commanders of the Wagner Group who made the only correct decision and refused to engage in fratricide and who stopped at the last line. Who refused to engage in fratricide and stopped at the last line. Most of them thought they were being deployed to Belograd. They didn't know they were heading to Moscow at the time.

And, you know, these people certainly know Putin. I think you can read Putin's words really in two ways. I mean, because he's completely absolved Wagner, all of them. I mean, the ones who took part and the ones who didn't. Everyone has been absolved and everyone can have a new contract with the Ministry of Defence. Prigozhin has been sent off to Belarus with a number of the groups. So he's not aiming at that speech, therefore, clearly at Wagner per se. I think what it was

saying was a very clear one to sort of perhaps people in Moscow and St. Petersburg who've become very comfortable with life, who've become very happy with the comforts of life, to say, look, we are under war. We are under attack. These are the dangers that face us. You know, it's no good just wondering which restaurant you're going to dine in tonight. You've got to realize that these things can happen. And therefore, we have to change

and we have to adjust and be prepared for this. So I think it may be about sort of stimulating the ordinary people to realize, you know, this is not without danger. It's not just comfortable. I know you're not being affected by the war. Life is going on normally, but it's serious. I want to get to your piece, The Negotiator's Nightmare. Here's an example of the nightmare the negotiators face. It is Secretary of State Blinken on CNN on Sunday. We've seen this aggression against Ukraine become a strategic failure across the board.

Russia is weaker economically, militarily. Its standing around the world has plummeted. It's managed to get Europeans off of Russian energy. It's managed to unite and strengthen NATO with new members and a stronger alliance. It's managed to alienate from Russia and unite together Ukraine in ways that it's never been before. This is just an added chapter to a very, very bad book that Putin has written for Russia.

How could you get him to the negotiating table, Alistair? I don't think he's any interest in getting to a negotiating table at all because all of this language was designed to sort of put it in Manichean, you know, you're with us or against this type of language. And to sort of isolate the whole Ukrainian problem, strip it of its context, strip it of its historical origins, strip it of any real sense of what caused it, and leave it sort of isolated as a single event. Russia invaded Ukraine without cause, illegally, and this must be punished, and we can do nothing more. It stops negotiation.

Will there be a negotiated settlement, or will a Ukrainian commander in the field surrender to a Russian commander in the field because the Ukrainian has no military, political, or governmental leadership behind him since they're all dead or have fled the country? There was an important statement last night, which was largely being missed, but I think is a key signal of what's coming next. Putin himself, he said, this war will be over when there are no Ukrainian forces left on the battlefield and weapons of NATO remain.

When those have gone, then the war is over. And that was followed shortly after by a statement by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which said there is no legal entity such as Ukraine, that the treaties of reconciliation that would have resolved the legal status of Ukraine vis-a-vis Russian Federation were rejected by Shoroporoshenko and Zelensky, and therefore there is no legal status of Ukraine. Now, I don't want to say whether that was a just or right. I'm sure there will be many people argue about that interpretation of international law and the treaties and so on. It's not that. It's the signal.

The signal is really saying we're not going to negotiate with Ukraine. We're going to go on until we have achieved that. And I think one of the outcomes from this event with Prigozhin, I mean, the comments, the complaints, the fundamental complaint he made that had a resonance with his men was that the military command were being too soft, that the West just drove cart and horses through Russia's red line without paying any consequences, and we needed to be much tougher. And I think that is a wider sentiment and probably will be reflected. And I wonder if this was something of a signal to that when we heard Putin saying that the war comes to an end when there are no Ukrainian forces on the field.

So if MI6 and CIA and their acolytes were behind this charade, which looked like a coup attempt during its first few hours, it has hit them like a boomerang if the ultimate outcome of the so-called coup is a far more aggressive Russian military willing to push all the way westward through Ukraine to the Polish border. There was no military unit, no political leader, no governor. No one supported this insurgency. Everyone lent their support to Putin.

It was a cohesive statement of support for the Russian state and for President Putin. He emerges much stronger. I just disregard all the, if you like, the noise emanating out of European mainstream media about it. He's not threatened. He's just re-established that he is in charge and he enjoys the support of all of Russia for that. Alistair Crook, always a pleasure, my dear friend. Thank you very much for joining us. We'll see you again soon.

Thank you. Thanks so much. If you like what you have seen, and I suspect you do, like, subscribe, and tell a friend. We're so close to that 175,000 subscriptions by the 4th of July, which is a week from today. More as we get it. Judge Napolitano for Judging Freedom. ¡Gracias! Tu familia está construida con tu dedicación a un futuro mejor. ¡Mira quién es! ¡Papi! Mientras trabajas duro por el éxito de tus hijos, algo que no ves los puede estar afectando.

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