Judging Freedom - War Games in the Black Sea - Now What? w/ Col Doug Macgregor

Episode Date: September 11, 2023

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Thank you. Hi, everyone. Judge Andrew Napolitano here for Judging Freedom. Today is Monday, September 11th, 2023. Colonel Douglas McGregor is here with us on, are you ready for this? War Games involving the United States Navy in the Black Sea. You can't make it up and you heard it here first, but first this. Hi everyone, Judge Napolitano here and the verdict is in. Everywhere I go, people are complaining how expensive things are and how their stomachs turn every time they get their IRA statement. Listen, many experts are predicting a recession. When, how, where, how bad, who knows? But why wait and see? Do what I did and learn how adding gold to

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Excuse me, Lee or JudgeKnapp.com. Colonel McGregor, welcome to the show. I'm dismayed that General Milley is still saying that Ukraine has achieved partial success in its advance eastward, and General Petraeus is saying he's waiting for the Russian military to crack. Does anybody take this stuff seriously today? Well, unfortunately, I think a lot of people in the West continue to believe what the mainstream press tells them. I wish it weren't true. There are people beginning to question the thing, though. That's the good news. Even in Germany, as well as in Austria, Switzerland, some people in France, but not on the scale that we would like. Of course, in Great Britain, there doesn't seem to be anyone of note questioning it. There are a few spokesmen, but unfortunately, you know, the monopoly in the hands of the people that control the media guarantees that only one message is trumpeted through the mainstream.

Here's your fellow West Point graduate, General Petraeus, on his belief, he claims sincerely, that Ukraine can isolate Crimea and isolate President Putin. At most, this fighting season, hopefully cut off that ground line of communication, isolate Crimea, and at some point demonstrate to Russia that this is not winnable and that it's not actually survivable. You know, Russia ultimately concluded after nearly 10 years that Afghanistan was not sustainable. And that's what needs to be conveyed here. By the way, we need to play our part in this as well, because Vladimir Putin doesn't yet look in the mirror and see somebody who's made a catastrophically horrific decision for his country. He sees a leader of a proud people who out-suffered Napoleon's army and

out-suffered the Nazis and still thinks he can out-suffer the Ukrainians, the Europeans, and the Americans. And the sooner we convince him that that is not going to be the case with a comprehensive approach, what we provide to Ukraine, what we do to the Russian economy, export controls diplomatically, and so forth, then and only then do I think you have an opportunity where you might have some kind of resolution of this war and avoid a new frozen conflict, let's say, with new front lines. At least he's recognizing the history of the Russian peoples resisting heroically, but at great cost, the various efforts by Europeans to invade them. But he still seems to think that somehow the U.S. can help Ukraine liberate Crimea. This is the

first time I've heard him get this far off the range. Well, the first thing I'd point out is this use of the word out-suffering, I think, is an insult. He forgets that in 1815, 200,000 troops marched into Paris, and it was ultimately the Russian component that was decisive for the defeat of Napoleon. So I think the notion that the Russians can bleed but are otherwise incompetent is nonsense. Setting all that propaganda aside, there's no evidence for any breakthrough anywhere. In fact, if you're Vladimir Putin, you know that the Ukrainians are in terrible condition. In fact, Vladimir Putin has large numbers of generals urging him to pull the trigger and launch an attack all the way to the upper river. And again, thus far, he's resisted that.

And he has various views on the subject, one of which is he still wants ultimately a relationship with the West. So he's bending over backwards to try and avoid a conflict that would make such a relationship impossible. So he's held back. How much longer that will go on is anybody's guess, but there's no evidence of any kind for anything that Dave Petraeus had to say, sadly. Colonel, is the United States Navy and the British Navy and various European navies planning war games in the Black Sea on the very coast of Russia as we speak? Yeah, it turns out that an announcement was made by the Romanian Ministry of Defense today that there will be a joint combined NATO naval exercise in the Black Sea. Most of the ships

are already there, but perhaps not all of them. We don't know. They're now saying that in addition to the British, the French, Romanians, there are also going to be some Turkish vessels, as well as, obviously, U.S. participation. The story is that given Russia's barbarity and widespread commissions of evil everywhere, we have to conduct a, quote unquote, freedom of navigation operation as part of this exercise in order to put the Russians in their place and show them that they can't monopolize the Black Sea. Now, that's the cover story, the public argument that's being made. Privately, I'm being told by my European sources that there is a

plan to try and escort vessels carrying arms to the Ukrainians into Odessa. I hope that's not true, because in addition to the freedom of navigation exercise, depending upon what they do under that title, that's dangerous in and of itself. If they sail too close to Crimea or the Russian coast, then, you know, it seems reasonable that there would be some sort of confrontation. The Russians aren't going to tolerate that. And we've already had problems with the drones that we flew in the area that were attacked and shot down. There will be no backing off by the Russians at all. Remember, last year, there was an incident involving the Royal Navy, which got a little close, and aircraft were scrambled, and the Russians made

it very clear, don't do this again. The next time, we will sink you. So I don't know what they're planning to do under freedom of navigation, but if it's risky or reckless, they could get into a fight with the Russians that ultimately they will lose. You can't defeat a power ashore from the sea, certainly not from a puddle like the Black Sea. PEDRO CARDONA Colonel, do you fear that the United States Navy will have U.S. Navy ships carrying arms to the Ukrainians under some subterfuge of a war game. I don't know. Is that happening? Because if that happens, I would think Russian intel would know about it,

and those ships will be sunk. Well, there's no evidence, at least as far as I know, that we or any of our allied warships would deliver those arms. The idea is that, you know, freighters, commercial vessels coming in potentially with arms could be escorted by us in some fashion, British, French, U.S., Turkish, Romanian. If that's true, then obviously we're in a lot of trouble because the Russians shut that operation down involving grain shipping simply because all the vessels would show up with arms, offload the arms, and then fill up on grain and repeat the process. The Russians said, we're not going to tolerate that anymore.

So if we're doing that, we're going to get into trouble. We're going to end up losing vessels. The Russians are not going to sit there and do nothing. And perhaps that's what the administration wants. I mean, after all, these are the same people that have announced that they want to send ATACOMs, Army Tactical Missile Systems over there with a 300-kilometer range, which allows the Ukrainians to attack into Russia again. Paul Jay Colonel, this is a provocation orchestrated probably at the highest levels of the American government. This is crazy. We are not militarily prepared to sustain such a provocation. This is almost like FDR manipulating the Japanese into bombing Pearl Harbor.

Well, he also tried very hard to provoke the Germans, but the Germans would not be provoked. And so his attempt to involve the United States Navy in a U-boat war failed miserably. But this time around, if you're going to operate in the Black Sea, which from the Russian standpoint, it's even more than something on the level of the Caribbean. Because, you know, we regard the St. Lawrence Seaway and the Great Lakes as essentially ours, so the Canadians and we. So we're not going to permit foreign warships to sail up the St. Lawrence Seaway. And I would argue that if we try to sail these warships into the Black Sea, they will be under very, very close surveillance. And if they

come too close to anything that's vitally important to the Russians, the Russians will act. You know, the bad news here, Judge, is that there are a lot of Russians who are very angry with us. And I do worry a great deal that they are salivating at the prospect of inflicting damage on us. After all, we've been sending hundreds of tanks and armored fighting vehicles and millions of rounds of ammunition, all designed to kill Russians. So I think the danger is very real, that if we are incautious, we could find ourselves at war with Russia in the Black Sea. Tell me how it works in that area with grain. I mean, if the, as I understand it, the Turkey has a huge industry in processing grain into flour, and that flour is sold all over Europe. And President Putin's not going to interfere with that unless it's Ukrainian grain.

Do I have that right? Yes, because, again, the Russians allowed vessels carrying grain to come in, pick up grain, and export it. The problem was that those same vessels were importing arms. They were a follow-up to the Ukrainian war effort. That's why the Russians said, no more. We're not going to tolerate it. Now, I don't think Erdogan has to worry about a loss of access to Russian grain unless he's given orders to his vessels to essentially support the others that are there.

See, NATO is a very strange animal. Whenever you have a NATO exercise, each nation stipulates in great detail what their respective forces can and cannot do. So there's no such thing as an operation in which everybody does the same thing. The French have instructions, the British have instructions, the Turks do, the Romanians do. Those instructions will not be the same. And the commander of the whole operation is supposed to be a Romanian admiral. He will be aware of the differences in those orders. And so what we may do or what the British may do are things that the others will not do.

It's a very odd set of circumstances, but that's the way NATO works. Would something like this need the approval of the President of the United States, Colonel? One would think so, especially given the circumstances, but I don't know who's in charge. I mean, we say President Biden is the Commander-in-Chief. That sounds fine, but what evidence do we have that he's really in touch with all these details? You know, we know the Navy has a long history of independent command at sea, and they like to operate as they see fit. When Jimmy Carter was president, he wanted the Navy to go into the Persian Gulf with a carrier battle group. They actually turned around and sailed in a different direction because they weren't going to put a carrier battle group into the Persian Gulf because it would be a very lucrative target. So, I mean, we know the Navy does what it thinks is best and

what it wants to do. So I don't know what instructions the admirals have. That would be worth knowing. It would be nice to know what the British government is telling their people to do, and the British have actually been more aggressive towards Russia than almost anyone else in NATO. Can I tell you what I think? And of course, I am not a military historian. You know my field. You and Ritter and McGregor and Johnson and the others have educated me in all this. I think the neocons of the American government have decided this is the way to provoke Russia. The Ukrainian offensive has failed. It can't get anywhere near its goal. It's running out of ammunition. We don't even have artillery shells to give them anymore, which is why we're sending the cluster bombs over there.

And this is to poke the bear in his rib or maybe in his eye and see what happens. And if that's the case, I'll use this word. It's insane. It's insane. It's reckless and it's unconstitutional. Well, I think it's reckless. And, you know, I'll leave the constitutional question to you. But I think the problem is that there are people in Washington right now. And I think they're in the White House. I think they're on the Hill, in the State Department, in the intelligence agencies, in the Department of Defense, who genuinely believe that this might be a way to induce the Russians to negotiate. Now, we need to understand something. This is not informed by any reasonable insight.

This is fanciful thinking. The Russians hold the winning hand right now strategically. They haven't taken the heavy casualties imputed to them. The Ukrainians have, and they're in terrible condition. Hospitals are full. Graves are being dug all the time. Hundreds of thousands of people have been killed. Hundreds of thousands wounded. Ukrainians are so desperate that they are trying to get the Polish government, other governments and NATO to round up Ukrainian citizens who are refugees in their country, who are able, quote unquote, able-bodied men, and send them back to Ukraine to fight. That's not an indication of a successful military operation, if you ask me. But for some reason, I think there are foolish people who really believe the Russians will shy away from taking direct action against us. And I think part of that is just between you and me and the public listening is Vladimir Putin's fault. Putin has sat on his duff in these defensive positions too long. And he's conveyed the impression to people,

wrong impression, that for some reason he can't attack. That's not true. But I think that perception is very strong in Washington and London. The outcome is this dumb idea of effectively provoking the Russians. And what is the best place to do that historically if you're an American? At sea. Most of our conflicts have begun at sea. Look at the incidents of the Spanish-American War. Look at the incidents with the Germans and with the Lusitania. Go into World War II. Look at the incidents involving the Spanish-American War. Look at the incidents with the Germans and with the Lusitania. Go into World War II.

Look at the incidents involving the Japanese and the Germans. And ultimately, the provocation towards the Japanese worked. We've had problems with this thing called Gulf of Tonkin Resolution. Subsequently, we've had incidents involving North Korea at sea. Sea is a very dangerous place. But if you're determined to provoke your enemy, and it looks like that's the case in Washington, then the Black Sea is obviously ideally suited to it. Colonel, this morning you sent me a piece to read which argued that Ukraine has lost 387,000 troops, 387,000.

That is a huge number. You have reason to believe, I assume you did, you wouldn't have sent that to me, but you have reason to believe that that number is accurate. Well, the numbers that I sent to you in that particular article, that came from an Austrian publication. And the publication based its findings on several other sources. But they said 382,000 had been killed last year in 2022.

So that would suggest that the totals are well over 400,000 now. That I don't know. I'm comfortable with the 400,000 number. Most of the analysts that I know that I trust, and you talk to some of them, agree that 400,000 killed in action is reasonable. Now, they also provided some numbers for the so-called mercenaries, foreign volunteers, and so forth fighting for the Ukrainians. And out of some 54,000, there were 32,000 casualties killed and wounded. And I don't know how many of those foreigners are still left. That's a very large number too. So again, I think what we can conclude with some degree of certainty

is Ukraine is losing this war very badly. They're bleeding to death. That's clear. Is there a, not comparable, but is there a credible number of Russian military killed? It can't possibly be this number. If Ritter's numbers are correct, if it's a seven to one ratio, then we're down to about 50 or 60,000 Russians to 450,000 Ukrainians. No, I think Scott's correct. And he has a different calculus that he uses. But I think most of us are coming to similar conclusions. And I think that's ultimately what we'll find out at some point in the future. But right now, nobody's going to reveal the truth. So you're dependent on all the

open source information that's out there the bottom line is this is key the Ukrainians are losing they're not close to victory they're not going to get close to victory they've had it and remember that the Russians are growing in strength with each passing day I've seen figures that suggested between now and the first of the year, there'll be another 300,000 Russian troops under arms, fully trained, joining the 750,000 that are out there now. Now, that's over a million. And eventually, we know that their target is to get to 1.2 million. So there's no chance for the Ukrainians to win this. Why do you think President Putin is hesitant to end this once and for all with a sledgehammer? Well, I've thought a lot about that.

And you have to go back and listen to him over the last two, three decades. Again, Vladimir Putin is the one Russian who's lived a substantial portion of his life in the West. A lot of those years were spent in Germany. He speaks German fluently. He knows large numbers of Germans, businessmen, as well as military leaders. probably better than anyone who's been in charge in Russia for generations. He wants a relationship with the West. He said that. He's made that very clear. He was asked, do you think Russia is part of the West? He said, Russia is certainly a European power, and we want to be part of Europe.

I mean, it can't be more direct than that. So I think that's part of it. And again, as I've said before, we've made it very clear we don't want to live with him. We want him gone. We don't even want Russia to exist in its current form. We'd be happy to divide it, strip it of its resources, and sell it off at auction. On the other hand, he's taken the opposite position. He wants to live with us.

Now, if we can change the governments in the West, I'm sure he would have people he could do business with. But right now, what's he got? In Washington, he has this sort of lunatic fringe that's decided to engage in brinksmanship. Now in the Black Sea. And every time we've talked about red lines, we won't ship the Ukrainians this, that, or the next thing. A few months later, we throw away the constraints and say, no, we're going to ship them. So from the Russian standpoint, they're beginning to say, how much longer before they give the Ukrainians a tactical nuclear weapon? I'm sure they're worried about that. And with some justification, I would say.

Again, this makes no sense, but who is standing up in the Senate or the House? Nobody. This is unacceptable. Americans don't want this. Look at the polling data. Two to one, Americans think that controlling the southern border is much more important than controlling Ukraine's border or helping Ukraine against Russia. The polling data is out there. The European electorates are moving in very similar directions. So the broader populace in Europe and in the United States opposes war with Russia. Colonel, thank you very much for this analysis.

Deep and profound and breaking news because we haven't seen anything about these war games anywhere else, but it's out there now. Always a pleasure, my dear friend. Thank you. Thank you, Judge. Wow.

Judge Napolitano for judging freedom.