Kitbag Conversations - Proto Kitbag 3: On Russia's failure in Ukraine

Episode Date: May 2, 2024

In this episode, Cody (a writer for the page) elaborates on his previous assessment regarding Russia's predetermined failure within Ukraine. The main topics highlighted throughout the episode are (but not limited to):  -Russia's logistical shortfalls  -Russia's degraded combined arms capabilities -Russia's inability to achieve air superiority due to proliferated MANPADS  -And Putin being "yes manned" into an invasion

Hello, and welcome back to Krootone Report, a podcast dedicated to delivering quality information to the community level. This week we are joined by Cody, an occasional author for the page and an author is articles such as Putin Shit the Bed and Failure Putin's Road to Kiev is Paved with Decades of Lies. Cody, I'll just give you a minute to hear to introduce yourself. Yeah, so my name is Cody. I did five years in the army as a military intelligence officer. I did a deployment to Afghanistan for nine months with the 101st Aviation Brigade down in Kandahar, and it was my job to basically make sure that and it was my job to basically make sure that American aircraft didn't die. And so I received some specialty training in that, went to Fort Rucker, learned about man pads and anti-tank guided missiles,

as well as going to Pathfinder school in November of 2017. And I didn't take the short course, I graduated that. So I'm kind of, I would say I'm okay. I'm nothing like another guy we've got going around here who writes articles for us. But yeah, I know my way around helicopter survivability. So that's why we've been writing those articles and making pilots mad. So in Putin's Shit the Bed, you laid out three main areas

where the Russians are essentially failing. And it was their logistical capabilities, their aircraft inability to function due to all the man pads in country, and the combined arms inability to cooperate with one another. So let's just start with logistical issues. Everyone's seen it, the convoys loaded up on a single track road, just getting eaten up by the envoys that were imported from NATO essentially to the Ukrainians. Russian paratroopers being dropped in with three mags and 24 to 48 hours worth of water and supplies

and getting surrounded and routed and eaten up by the Ukrainians. So yeah, let's just start up from the top there and like logistics, logistic. So it was, it's actually funny because if you look through the Krootone report, uh, archive, I guess you could call it, but if you, if you scroll back to February 24th, you'll see an article where we wrote that Russia will lose. And I think that was the first one I wrote for the page. And we act that within 24 hours with Russia losing because we were seeing tanks getting blown up by the end laws, we were seeing them

get destroyed by javelins and man pads. And so right out the gate, you had issues, right? And I mean, we're, I would say somewhat experts in the field of military intelligence. And so within 24 hours, everything quickly shifted. I mean, even for the Russians. And so as tanks are blowing up, helicopters are getting downed, you have logistical issues, you have a nightmare, essentially, because every tank that goes down needs to be repaired. Every tank that keeps going forward needs fuel, everything needs ammunition. And the American logistical system is actually called reactive logistics. So they set forward operating operations bases.

And you can go to YouTube and you can type in the operations room and you can see on day one of the desert storm invasion, the 101st was actually tasked with making a forward operating base for logistical issues and problems. Like they landed on their objective with fuel blivets on the helicopters. Like Chinooks were unloading artillery, Humvees, and they were carrying underneath them fuel tanks for the op and we saw none of that right out the gate with Russia. It was just tanks getting blown up and helicopters getting blown up. And we were talking, I think it was earlier, we were talking about how Russia was trying to wait till the ground freezes, but the ground isn't frozen anymore. There's just mud, farmland and mud.

And so these logistical vehicles are stuck on the roads. And so day one of the invasion, we're seeing things like tanks getting blown up, helicopters getting taken down. All of a sudden you need to get logistics in there to recover these vehicles and you need to get people in there to start repairs and they're stuck on the roads because they can't get off. That's why there's a 44 mile long convoy. And so I think, like we said, I keep saying within 24 hours we noticed, this isn't right. Well, it's because, not to cut you off,

but there was the initial 24 hours of footage of Russian RD and Russian aircraft absolutely thrashing Kiev and Kharkov and Kyrgyzstan and all the Russian or the Ukrainian main objectives, but the Russians within 48 hours didn't seize any of their day one objectives. Those videos that were being released, CNN is one of them, where they were standing behind the Russian VDV securing objectives in an airport, but it's almost like it's been almost three weeks and they still

don't have the entire airport outside of Kiev. And so it's almost like anyone who's been to Atlanta, that's huge. It's 20 minutes to get from one side to the other. So it's almost like anyone who's been to Atlanta, that's huge. It's 20 minutes to get from one side to the other. So it's a lot of those Russians were dropped in with, okay, we got it. Now what? Oh, we're out of ammo. Oh, the Ukrainian, you're pissed off. So, well, I mean, that's like, that's what happened in Market Garden, right? Like immediately you have the 82nd and the British paras trying to seize,

I think it was Eindhoven. And they did for like, I think it was just a couple hours, couple days. And then the counterattack happened and the American and British armor weren't there to relieve them like paratroopers only got. I mean, we even said it in some of those write ups, like they only have 72 hours worth of stuff. And every time they fight, every time they get into an engagement, that amount of supplies, that amount of hours ticks down. Like they go from 72 hours after a big firefight and they have like 48 hours worth of ammunition left. And then they get another firefight. It's like, okay, we may have 36 hours left. And it's just these unsupported paratrooper drops with it. And like we were just saying, those logistical convoys just

getting bogged down in the mud. And so they can't, they're just dead. They're dead. There's nothing. It's not even isolated to one area. It's the entirety of the Russian offensive from Kiev to Harkov to the Chechens coming in through the east or the Russians moving in through, originally Crimean to Karsan, it's all of them. They seized those roads. They didn't seize the main land to the right or the left. And then they were just getting eaten up by the Ukrainian, not war machine, but just resistance. Yeah. I mean, well, when you're stuck on the roads and you can't maneuver, I mean, it's pretty easy for a farmer with an AK to shoot at you.

So what was the other, what was it, what were the other two? So moving on, it's going to be downed aircraft. So oh my God, I remember that. Just the amount of videos flooding the internet of Russian Heinz and aircraft just getting absolutely eaten up by the most primitive and basic of manpads that have been sitting around since the Cold War, just getting annihilated. Well, I mean, like, so here's the funny thing. And it's like, a lot of people think that stingers are still Gen 2 manpads. So there's four generations of manpads. Like your Gen ones are like the first igla seven, like, which is just, it's a joke, right? The missiles train to look at heat signatures. And so like, it chases flares. And so, but I think the stingers we gave to

Ukraine actually came from Lithuania, they were like 1500. And then the Polish gave them a gram, which is I think a gen three and the high Indies and these helicopters, like they're not supposed to get shot down. They have survivability systems and everybody's been, oh man, when we wrote that one article about the rotary wing having to account for man pads now, like the armchair pilots came out and got all butthurt. But seriously, once you start seeing T-90 tanks getting destroyed by javelins, there's that minute of like, wait, that's not supposed to happen. And then when you see a helicopter get shot down by

a man pad, it's like, okay, that really isn't supposed to happen. Like, that's a huge no-no. And there's 5,000 just from Lithuania and Poland manpads. Like that's a manpad. I think that's like two manpads for every helicopter Russia's thrown at them. And for every manpad you shoot, the survivability systems on these aircraft have to work harder. Like you can take down a helicopter with a bunch of SA-7s, which is the worst manpad ever. If you've got like seven of them lined up and you shoot them at one helicopter, it's gotta take that thing down.

But if you've got like two, gen three, gen fours, the helicopter's toast, but they don't even need to, they're doing it with one. And so like, not having your CAS, your close air support right out at the gate from day one with all these man pads hidden, like you can find a anti-aircraft. What's the Russian one with all the machine guns on it, like the SA-2? Hold on. The 2S6. The 2S6. Yeah, the 2S6. Like you could find that, right? It's got to have a radio connection.

It's got a heat signature. It's a freak. It's a tank. But a man pad, you can put that thing in the back of your truck and drive around town with it. And then you see a helicopter pop the truck open and hit it. And so and throw the missile in the back of the truck and you're on your way. And I mean, that's everywhere over Ukraine.

And I think that was, that's a big one. That's a big one. I mean, you can't establish air supremacy with that. And so like, we keep saying like, 24 hours, we knew we're like, okay, Russia's got a problem. And so that was, that's a huge one. I mean, they were taking down IL 76 is which are huge. It's the Russian version of the C-7 aircraft but it's got other things going for it. But I mean taking out an IL-76 with 150 paratroopers for the cost of $130,000 a stinger is ridiculous. Yeah not just once but twice. I think they took out two with 300 paratroopers

gone immediately north of Kiev. And it's just, it's like, yeah, they take these Gen 1 SA-7s and they hook them up to car batteries and that battery life is good forever because there's- Yeah, because the car battery. Yeah, it's just car batteries laying around. So they could just keep these stretched forever. And the funny thing is, is like everybody came to the pilot's defense. It's like, oh, they're just not flying right. Oh, they're just like, no Russia. And I think that that was the next point is like, Russia was lying about all of its updates, right? Oh, it gets all the way down to that 15 or 18 year old tank crewman who said he was doing all the way up to the division staff saying, yeah, we're ready. We can invade. And then

surrounded with yes men for the last 22 years of, yeah, we could do this. We're great power. So it's, I mean, there's just so many indicators that if you like not to be like, well, if you knew what you were looking for, like it's like, if you knew what to look for, like within the first 24 to 48 hours, you were like, uh-oh, like this is not going to go in Russia's favor. Mm hmm. And the next point I want to touch on is the combined arms across the entirety of Ukraine is just these Russian tank crews getting eaten up and rumors coming out that they're manually and intentionally destroying their tanks. If they get word they're supposed to go to Kiev or conscripts, whatever the Russians want to call them, going into Kiev or the outskirts of Harkov and getting just annihilated, just eaten up. And on one hand, it's like, did they have the training? Did they believe they were going into this training exercise? And were, did the Russians know that their op-sec is so bad that they took away their phones and their ability to communicate with the outside world? Or on the other hand, are they just that bad?

Is it just feeding into that machine and that idea of, yeah, the bear is strong. And I guess you got all their bluff. Well, it's like, uh, we've been watching so much, if you don't, you need to go on YouTube and you need to search laser pig and you just need to watch all those videos because he has a flow chart for it, right? It's like Russia doesn't go to war for a while. Everybody thinks Russia is strong. Russia actually goes to war, gets kicked in and then we laugh at Russia and then the meme start up. Everybody thinks Russia is strong and then Russia goes to war, gets kicked in, and then we laugh at Russia. And then the memes start up. Everybody thinks Russia's strong.

And then Russia goes to war. I mean, it's the same thing across the board. They went to Afghanistan and they got crushed. They went to Chechnya. It took them twice. They got crushed. They went into Georgia. And I think they just beat Georgia by sheer number.

And then Ukraine. But I mean, there's a book I mentioned in our chats. We've been talking about, it's called One Soldier's War. It's by Arkady Babchenko. And he talks about the first Chechen war being a conscript in the Russian army. And it is literally word for word what's happening in Ukraine right now. These guys are untrained. They are hazed relentlessly by their NCOs. The idea of being hazed in Russia doesn't exist in the Russian army. It's awful. You have to pay your NCOs money, rape amongst NCOs on conscripts is very likely. Beatings, and I'm not talking like getting punched in the face, like getting pistol whipped with an AK-47 is like a weekly occurrence. And it's like, how do you

convince a guy like that to go into Ukraine and win? Schwarzkopf said it in Iraq. He was like, the willingness to fight of the Iraqi is beaten by the willingness to surrender. Like it makes more sense to surrender than it does to fight. And so that's what these Russians are going through. And as far as like combined arms, like you think about what goes into the invasion of Iraq, where we had Navy and Air Force collaborating together to knock out key C2 infrastructure, which is command and control. Like the radio towers were gone. I think it was like the Pentagon and Desert Storm. They were watching the CNN news channel because they knew at 3 a.m. the first bombs were supposed to drop. And if CNN cut out, they knew that the stealth technology had

worked on the F-117s and like the bombing had started. So like our technology was more advanced than we were capable of like synchronizing. We had to like hope and pray that the Iraqi TV news broadcast radio tower would get taken out at three. And when CNN went down at three in the morning, the Pentagon knew the campaign had started.

And so like you're talking about Tomahawk cruise missiles, decoy drones, stealth aircraft, like the whole nine yards, like Iraq became cut off from the rest of the world within the first 24 hours. And then I think it was like by hour 18, the Air Force and Navy were done targeting ADA systems and aircraft of the Iraqi military. They were now targeting ground forces of the Iraqi military. It's been three weeks and Russian aircraft still are trying to take out ADA systems. It's like, this is crazy. They're never going to win now. They've lost all this momentum and it's so hard to gain momentum back. And so as we talk, and I mean, that's just from the air force and, uh, the Navy's perspective. I mean, think about the tanks and the infantry. We haven't seen these big,

huge pushes of synchronization where aircraft are landing. Artillery is working in conjunction with tanks. I mean, by, I think it was like within the first week, one of us pointed out, like, hey, does this just seem like they're kind of winging it? Nobody seems to have phase lines. Many people were commenting that they weren't doing line of relief. They were just pushing the same guys forward and forward and forward. They weren't being replaced by second company, like first company would go this far and then second company would go through first company onto the next objective and it's like, it's

not happening. The same guy who crossed the border in Belarus is now sitting in Kiev three weeks later, like he's done. He's probably got like two magazines left of AK ammo and he's out of food and he's and that's I mean that's literally what started happening. They started robbing places and so it's just it's just disgusting. Well the looting started almost immediately from the people I talked to in Harkov is the Russians got there they thrashed with already an air support for the first 24 hours. The ground guys moved in. They were sent in with limited supplies, had no food. They broke off from the supply lines. They moved too fast to keep up with the convoy.

And they were going door to door asking for food. They're asking the Ukrainians for water. And they were essentially told to go fuck themselves. But it's I'm glad you bring up the idea of isolating Iraq from the Americans because it took a week and a half for the Russians to start targeting cell towers in Ukraine's major cities and only one city, Mariupol, had their, essentially their internet connectivity was shut down for what, maybe a day or two? Isn't that the home of Azov battalion? I think so. I could be wrong.

I think so. But like Mariupol is also the home of the Ukrainian Marines. Yeah. And so it's like, that's a hard target. 100%. So they've been encircled since almost the initial stage of the war, but it took the Russians a week plus to start going after the cell towers when the average Ukrainian is just posting videos of what's going on. And it's not footage coming out of the Ukrainian army or the Russian army. It's civilians posting this going, here they are. Here's where the Russian tank column is.

Yeah. I mean, laser, laser pig talked about that. And I'm going to mention that a lot. So if you haven't watched laser pig on YouTube, you need to go watch him, but it's like every civilian is now the equivalent of an OSI agent in World War II. They're walking around with a geo location for like camera.

You can take a picture, geo tag it, or if you have your location on, you can take a picture and just upload it to the internet. And the metadata in the photo will show you the grid coordinates of where that photo was taken. And so that's why like, when we wrote that piece about turning a geolocation back on, people were like, oh, the Russians are going to find you. The Russians are going to find you. It was like, no, that's it. You turn your geolocation on, take a picture and post it. Anybody can find that tech on the internet. And so like, all like you were saying, not hitting the cell

towers is insane. Like that should be your number one target because now you've got 40 million Ukrainians with phones taking pictures of everywhere you are. I'm pretty sure that the Ukrainians were battle tracking better off of Ukrainians taking photographs and uploading them to social media than the Russians knew. Like the Ukrainian populace was probably tracking Russians better than the Russian army was tracking their own guys. And so we've seen on or you've definitely sent to the group chat of leaked Russian messages from the front where, or on Reddit essentially is where they're getting dumped on our Ukraine or our Russia, where Russian soldiers are saying, hey, no idea what's going on. Everyone. Yeah, we were told this is a training exercise. We didn't have our phones for the first few weeks. Some people just kind of smuggled theirs in. We have no idea who's in charge, who owns what, where we're going, we're just told to go this way. And then there's also other leaked

where we're going, we're just told to go this way. And then there's also other leaked messages coming out from the Russian side saying, we were told we're gonna go fight Nazis. And if we turn around, we're not going back. So it's going right back to that. I wanna plug this book, Zinki Boys by Svetlana Alexeeva, which is the Soviet army in Afghanistan. But I don't wanna say it's similar, but the Soviets came in, they went down the major roads, they took Kabul and Kandahar and sat there on the roads and just got just annihilated by the Mujahideen. supplies or unit cohesion or any sense of who's in charge or who's going where.

It was just exhausted conscripts getting thrown in there. And once they're two years erupt, they were kicked back. They're like, all right, never talk about this. So, I mean, interesting. I mean, we were talking about it. It's like a conscript army just doesn't work. It's like in the book on killing, like only 20% of people can actually shoot to kill. And it's like, if that means in a conscript army. And so it's like, if that means

80% of your numbers are fake and Russia's got a million guys and that means that only 200,000 are actually killers, but how many of those 200,000 actually have logistics, actually have ammo, actually have food in their belly and are willing to fight and go forward. And the chances are slim and zinky boys. Like, I mean, hey, the black Tula. Yeah. So, I mean, yeah, it's it is it's it's crazy to think that. We as American trained soldiers

and Marines and intelligence guys, we were thinking like, oh man, Russia's got all this great stuff. And then it's like, not really, they have it. It's just maybe one or two tanks have that upgrade and they can only afford to do those upgrades every other year. And like, meanwhile, the military industrial complex in America has so much money poured into it, we're making billion dollar mistakes and like,

eh, just write it off, whatever. And so it's, it's crazy. I mean, it's like watching what we thought was a first world power expose itself to be a third rate power and not even like skipping through second. I mean, if it were to go from first to second, yeah, like straight to third, right, man? Like how do you like, that's like the number one draft pick in the NFL. Like just not like, yeah, here he goes. He's best quarterback and he doesn't even make it past the Oakland Raiders.

He just absolutely gets crushed and you're like, oh Jesus, what do we do now? We spent 100 million on this and it's all gone. I mean, somebody even wrote, there was a guy who wrote an article and he was like, based on the photos and the videos taken with some calculations, the biggest and the videos taken with some calculation, the biggest donator of military equipment by cost, by dollar to the Ukrainian military is actually Russia. Like all the stuff that they've got. So it's like, Jesus, man, like, but all right, what next? What next? So we're talking about all these communication logistical and these errors within the Russian army, Ukrainian soft has been, it's not confirmed, but allegedly have been going behind the Russian

lines and blowing up railway lines so they can't bring in supplies via railway or have been attacking the multiple supply convoys and essentially just fucking shit up from behind. So those Russians are continuously getting isolated and just demoralized. Yeah. I mean, we, we, we found that, uh, that X-script from a Russian radio transmission that was intercepted. It was like an actual radio transmission. It wasn't a, like a cell phone or like, Oh, this person called this person. Like somebody turned out a walkie talkie, dialed it in to the Russian frequencies they found on a piece of paper. And

they wrote down, like it was like Ukrainian Intel piece. And it was like, they talked about how these Ukrainians have been training for eight years and we've been doing nothing. And it's like, you just hit it with the conscripts, right? Like every year or two years, the Russian conscripts get up and they leave the military and all that knowledge is gone. Usually by the two, three, four year mark, you're starting to become what in the American military is called an NCO, right? Like you're starting to become a junior leader. So you don't have any junior leaders. Meanwhile, Ukraine has American special forces, which their mission is to train and create special forces in other countries.

It's called FID, foreign internal defense. They increase and do all these missions. I mean, it's where the Jordan commandos come from. Same thing with 10th group. They do that in Ukraine. They make the... Hold on a sec. What? I thought I've cut out.

Oh, no, you're good. But, you know, the Green Berets train these special forces and for eight years, they've been training with American Special Forces, they have American training, they have American equipment. I mean, down to the last thing is like a rifle, they're using those bullpups. And so, I mean, pretty cool to see just the battlefield footage being released from Ukraine, from the civilian side and seeing what elements the Ukrainians have that are armed with M4s, Marpads.

Just American equipment. It's like, I was not smart. I would think the Americans are there outside of the little market. Let's not lose our jobs, right? But we've got hunches and bunches. I mean, so I mean, it's like, I was about to say, I think one of the funniest things that I've seen, trying to steer away from what I know you're trying, what you're flirting with. No, what I was going to say was, what's really funny is seeing Ukrainians look like operators, like you said, like civilians have this equipment. And it's most people don't know this, but in Poland, you can own a firearm in Ukraine, you can own a firearm and they've got all the Instagram operator kit. I mean, I follow a guy who plays heavy metal and drives a four truck and has an M4 in Ukraine. I'm like,

I thought he was an American, but no, he was an Ukrainian. I was like, well, like he's role playing as a, as a country boy from Texas and Ukraine. Like, meanwhile, I'm putting Adidas tracksuits on looking like a guy. Yeah. I'm slot squatting. I saw the Walmart. It's in the heels. But yeah, no, it's, it's good stuff. And it's just crazy to think that like a lot of people are flabbergasted, bewildered, if you will, that Russia's losing. And it's like, no, they are losing so bad. And to put that into perspective, when you're in the army, if a unit has, if it has lost 30%

If it has lost 30% of its combat force, like 30% attrition, we call it combat ineffective. Because I mean, you've got to get the medical guys up, you got to repair, treat, do all these things. If you lose 30% of your line unit, that's just the infantry like the support guys have to come up, clean all that mess up, put new guys in, put new ammo in. And it's just, it's done. That unit's done. The Russian military has already lost in equipment, 30% of its equipment, not manpower, but it's lost 30% of its tanks. It's lost 30% of its trucks and BMPs. Like that's insane. That's like wiping out entire armor divisions, one or two that's a knee capping, that's insane. So it's three weeks in and we're already like, yeah, it's pretty much over.

Minus a nuclear bomb, there's nothing Russia can really do and every day Ukraine just gets dug in deeper and deeper and deeper, you know? And so, uh, it, time is of the essence and they have none of it. Like, so, but what next? What's that? What else are we going to yell at me for? Or you just mentioned it and we've alluded to it that like the American intelligence community, I don't want to say criminally, but overestimated the capabilities of the Russian Federation and their military to where we knew they were going to attack Ukraine when everyone else

said, no, they're not going to do it. But the Americans kept saying, yeah, they will. And it's not going to be good. And Ukraine's probably going to lose. But based on how the Russians are going these days, do we think Putin was yes man into believing he was a world power? Because we started off in relation with, yeah,

it's these Russian, lowly Russian soldiers are lying about their capabilities. They, out of a million soldiers, 20% know what they're doing. So was he just yes manned into it or is he delusional? Okay, yeah. So like, there's a lot going on in the headshed. Like if somebody is going to sit that like, I have read countless books on the big Russian bear and like the bear of the mountain, the new czar hours and hours. Yeah, I'm not an expert on Russia or Putin and anybody that tells you otherwise, I mean, everybody's doing the same thing we're doing, right? Like, they're like, has he had a stroke? Does he have a, does he have cancer? Like, maybe he's a sociopath. Like, we're sitting here doing some extra laps because he's looking really pudgy. And like, dude, we're doing the same thing CNN and Fox is doing. Like, what is wrong? I mean, even South Park came out with this great episode where they talk about how,

like, when your dick doesn't work as a guy, you start to do stupid things. And it's like, maybe that's what's Putin's happening. It's like, I'm not going to pretend I have the answer. But if I had to guess, like, if you're like, okay, here's a gun to your head, tell me, figure out what happened to Putin. And it's like, he was 100% lied to, just like we were. Right? So you've got all these parades going on. You've got all these military exercises, and they're only showing the best and the brightest of the Russian army. We're only seeing in the memes and the videos, like what does the Russian army. We're only seeing in the memes and the videos, like what does the Russian army have?

Like, what are they doing? Oh man, they're shooting each other in the chest with Glocks and they have bulletproof vests on and the army's releasing these stupid woke commercials to recruit new candidates. And it's like Russia, big bad bear. And it's like, I honestly believe that that's what's going on on the other side of the door, right?

But behind closed doors, they're sipping a little bit of that juice, but at the same time, you've got a dictator who has put all these generals in power, all these intelligence professionals in power. Like his inner circle is, it's, it's as close as friends. And I, I thought it was called dictator's disease. I don't know if that's it, but, uh, essentially it's like, you know, as a dictator, you can't be

told no, you can't tell somebody, Hey, that's stupid. Like if you really want to like ruin a business or like an, a military unit, just get told yes all the time. That's a brilliant idea, sir. Like it'll drive it right into the ground. And I mean, so like here's an example. Right. And I'll show you how we do it in the American army. And the hundred and first we have what we call the big five. All right. And it's been a while since I've been in the unit.

So forgive me. I think it's like PT, aerosol school graduates, marksmanship, maintenance, and then like the 12-miler, right? And so when you get like 90% on all big five, you get a little streamer on your flag as a company. And it's so cool. And it's like a big deal for captains, like mid-career officers to get this. And

so what they do is they game the system. They're like, all right, I got 40 guys in my unit, but five of them are getting out in six months. So they don't count. And then these five over here, well, they're on walking profiles, so they can't do the 12 mile. So now I've got 30 guys. So out of my 30, what I have is 25 dudes who can pass the 12 miler. And so now I'm at 90%. I look great on paper. But when you actually look at the unit, like all 40 people there, it's like maybe 75% can do it. And so they like game the system to make the numbers green and you make that Excel slide green. And so that's what's happened to Putin, right?

He's been given like, how can I make this look right? And then at the same time, you've got huge corruption, right? How can these Russian oligarchs get a cut? I mean, we saw it with the winter Olympics, like they were building all these buildings terribly, taking money off the top. And it's like, if your best friends in the AK business, and he's got an AK factory, you got to pay him 100 million. And like, really, all he needs is 80 million, but you need to give him 100 million so that he could take his 20 million and go skiing in Switzerland. And so that's the way they do business in Russia. I mean, that's the way they do business in most places.

You know, you got to grease the gears. And as a Western civilization, we don't understand that. But I do think that not only was Putin yes manned, I think a lot of his leaders were trying to get to 90% and they were taking their cut off the top because they're broke. Like, so here's a wrench for you. There's been a lot of reports coming out that FSB, you know, the old KGB are getting rounded up and put on her house arrest because the situation mostly is going very bad. And it almost makes me just want to tin full a hat here for a minute, believe that the FSB said this could not happen. This is not going to win. And then when they were ignored, they're the ones taking the blame because as the IC does, when everything goes good, you're not going to get thanks. But when it goes bad, you're at fault. So yeah, I used to tell the guys, the IT department in the army, like nobody ever comes and tells you,

hey guys, the internet worked really good today. Thanks. Like they only come in when their laptops broken or the internet's down. They're like, what the fuck's wrong with this place? Like, yeah. So it's like, I honestly think that may be true. That could be it, you know, Putin was lied to by the KGB and he's putting them on house arrest. But at the same time, like the FSB is the replacer of the KGB. Like they are notorious for assassinations, like more like, and not just like, oh, like shoot you in the back of the head assassination. Like let's give this guy a uranium isotope in the neck, and then watch him die of cancer type assassinations.

Yeah, that's a good. And so it's like, what do you do with the head of the assassination department, when the military is losing a war, and your economy is basically now crippled, and like the Russian economy will never run again in its current state ever. Like it will take hundreds of years to beat these sanctions. And so it's like all of this is happening to your country and you're the leader of the assassination department. What do you do? Well, you kill the guy and then it's like, well, Putin's former KGB. He just put them all in house arrest. I mean, wasn't you? He paid for all that school. He paid for all that assassination training. I ain't gonna let you use

that. Step one, secure the keys. A rumor I saw floating around was the FSB maybe feeding the SBU in Ukraine tips about assassination attempts on Zelensky because it's hard to believe that he survived almost 15 and almost three weeks with no issue that they felt caught the Chechens at the door every single time. It's FSB saying, okay, we knew this was going to happen. Let's speed this up. So I mean, it will saying, okay, we knew this was going to happen. Let's speed this up. So, I mean, it will always be a mystery. I don't know. I will never understand or know how

Zelensky survived 15 assassination attempts or how Ukraine knows where top generals are on the battlefield and kills one every 36 to 48 hours. I mean, it's always going to remain a mystery to me how Ukraine came about this intelligence. Like, how did they... I mean, it's almost as if like one of the world's greatest intelligence systems ever created is working with them. Like, yeah, like, you got to be like, I may get in trouble just for pointing a finger like that. Like, that's a little insane, right? Like, I don't think the FSB new either, honestly. I mean, because like, if you think about it, so you've got like all these competing interests, right? Like you're at the table in Putin's evil layer in the euros, right? Everybody's sitting in the sauna, your man tits are out, everybody's sweating together, you hit each other with birch leaves, and you're trying to get cool with Putin so that you can get like another hundred million dollars for your new tank and you can skim 10 million dollars off the top. Like I don't think the FSB knew. Like I think they're

competing entrants with like the Navy, the Air Force, the Army, the Marines, like they're all competing for a hand in the pot, the money pot. And the intelligence service, even though Putin is a former intelligence guy, he, I mean, he may give them money, he may not, but I mean, with a dictatorship, even like in Japan, Hitler, Mussolini, everybody's competing for this one guy to like praise them and give them money, give them fame, give them glory. And it's like, I don't think the FSB has a fricking clue. Like I think they were spying and they were doing all these things and they were working with Don Bass in Crimea.

And then all of a sudden, you know, there's T-72s driving by and they're like, what the fuck is this? And like, I think they were left out of the loop too. Which makes me think that, like I just said, they're getting put under house arrest. They're the ones getting blamed for all of this. Yeah, they're the scapegoat.

Yeah. Like, oh, two birds. Hey, two, you don't know what you're doing, huh? Yeah, take two birds, one stone. You have somebody to blame, and you get to keep the guys trading an assassination on house arrest. It's like, yeah, it's their fault,

and they can't kill me, thank God. Yeah, what's like, yeah, it's their fault. And they can't kill me, thank God. Like, yeah, what's next? What other thing that I write that pissed off the masses? That was the last little wicked I wanted to touch. But if you have anything to plug or anything floating around in your mind that you wanna throw out. Yeah, the Pathfinder piece. Oh yeah.

So I'm a little... I'm biased because I've got the badge. The torch, the coveted Pathfinder torch. Are they extinct now? There's one school left in the entire army. It's like the glider badge. That's a thing. That's cute.

But we were talking about that that and we're trying to figure this out because this will make a great Instagram clip, I think, this monologue coming up. But manpads are a part of the battlefield now. There's nothing we can do to change that. Literally, there's nothing we can do to change that. Literally, every NATO partner has donated a man pad to Ukraine, Lithuania, Poland, England, the United States. I mean, we just threw $16 billion into Ukraine just now. And what I'm trying to say is you have this new weapon on the battlefield, and all the little boys and girls and grown men who think that they know everything about aircraft survivability are like, oh, the man pad will never defeat my F-35 or it doesn't matter, man. Like the National Guard, I think still had Hueys 10

years ago, right? Like we're- The Marine Corps still has Hueys. What are you talking about? Yeah, the Marine Corps still, my bad, Marine Corps still has Hueys. And it's like, it doesn't matter, man. Like the majority of the force doesn't have these great systems. And, you know, what is the answer to this new weapon system? What is the answer to the man-pad? And we've chalked around some ideas, but I think the resurrection of pathfinders and long range reconnaissance surveillance or long range reconnaissance paratroopers all put into one unit, right?

All of them, your long range reconnaissance, your pathfinders all in one box, just like the Belgians, the Dutch, the Germans, the French, the English all have pathfinders. And their mission is to go in ahead of the main force, whether it's paratroopers or air assault, or it could be ground forces and find these man pads, find these ambushes, or at least find a route for the main body to come in. And somebody's going to come into the comment section, they're going to be like, Oh, well, special forces and the Air Force special reconnaissance the they do know you ever is Marine force recon isn't special operations, is it? No, it's not.

And so, and the problem with special forces is that they don't fall under normal military command. They'll tell you like, oh, we train with our normal army and Marine counterparts. No, they don't, they hate them. They would rather die than sit at the table. In fact, they send liaisons to the normal commander. They don't sit with him. They don't care what he has. In fact, special operations doesn't even carry drones with them.

They take the normal army, air force and marine drones from them and they use them. Like, so they take stuff from us and use it from us as the regular forces, I say. But no, they don't care. And so it's like they're not going to do recon. Once they get done blowing stuff up behind enemy lines, they're going to do what they've always done, try to get into direct action roles and take the job of army rangers and Delta Force. Like I can kick indoors too.

They don't care about reconnaissance. They don't care about the main body. They'll figure it out. And so the new question is, what are we going to do about the empaths? And I said, pathfinders. And I think I stand by that. I think that the drones, like drones working with Brodery wing aircraft would be cool. And, but I mean, like the normal military needs a tool in their arsenal that isn't soft to go in and do deep strikes and deep reconnaissance. And it can't be soft because soft has a different mission set and none of them have a mission set of reconnaissance surveillance

and working with the combined arms factor. None of them have the mission set of reconnaissance surveillance and working with the combined arms factor. None of them have the mindset of how do I get these helicopters in safe? How do I get these paratroopers in safe? How do I get these Marines coming into the beachhead a good landing zone? And like they don't, I mean, MarSoc doesn't care. Green Berets don't care. I mean, the Rangers have their own reconnaissance company for God's sakes, the Ranger reconnaissance company, and they do their own recon. They don't trust anybody else to do it. Like, let that sink in. The most advanced infantry fighting force, the US Army Ranger Regiment has its own reconnaissance force, but the normal military,

the Army and the Marines don't. Actually, the Marines have Marine recon, sorry, but like the army doesn't. Yeah. And it's like, bro, these guys need to be assigned to the regular force, but they need to be trained like soft and the commander of these units needs to have the understanding like these guys need to do their own thing and they need to be special and they need to train hard and they need to go and do their own thing. But at the same time, they do belong to the two star general and I think having them answer to the division commander and the division commander only would work very well. But at the same time, you also need them to answer to the aviation and logistics. Like who's going to, if it's the birds bringing them in, then they need to answer to the birds. If it's the helicopters bringing in, they need to answer to the helicopters. But there is no dedicated force for destroying and man pads. There is no dedicated force for finding those anti-tank guided missile ambushes, which are going to be super common in the next war. And so that's why I said Pathfinders. It makes complete sense just having a designated force to just the mission set. It's

all based around the mission set itself and like using let's say Libyan as an example because in 2011 once the Arab Spring kicked off and Gaddafi was ousted, 10,000 manpads just went missing overnight and the entirety of the Middle East or CENTCOM and AFRICOM freaked out. They went, excuse me, we have a lot of these floating around. And that's in a part of the world that let's say nobody cares about. So somewhere where Ukraine is putting what 5,000 we said earlier to use. No, it's just 5,000 from two countries. Even better. So like just two. It's like you just said, it's a new tool for the battlefield that anywhere from a 16-year-old kid could pick it up with minimal training and launch it.

And then if you have 15 lined up on one helicopter, it's probably going to go down. No amount of black belts are going to outrun that kind of lead. Actually, the F-15. And you know what's crazy about it is that I looked it up, the price is only like $130,000 for a Stinger missile. An Apache helicopter costs 34 million. That's pennies on the dollar. Dude, China right now is looking at this like man pads. Now we need lots of man pads. They are rewriting their entire doctrine. It's going to take five to 10 years to get it set, but they are watching this so closely for Taiwan, which I think is going to be a completely different scenario, but that's a topic for another time. It's the Chinese who base their entire concept of direct action off the Soviet method, which is failing. They are definitely taking some notes here.

They are definitely taking some notes here. I mean, what's even funnier is like if you actually learn Soviet doctrine, they prefer to defense. They like being on the defense. And if like they tell you, it's like you need three to one odds to take on a dug in defender. So you have to have three times the amount of soldiers for every one guy in a trench. I need three dudes to pull him to put him to death. So that's why the Russians love defense and you can throw conscripts and trenches and they'll stay there and it's beautiful. But like why they attacked? I mean, Jesus, man, it's it's stupid. It doesn't make any sense. And I think it comes down to everyone is overthinking the situation and like you said, trying to figure out Putin's motivation. And I think it just comes down to return to tradition, go back to the old way of hard power, solidify Russia's borders,

make a buffer state between them and NATO. It's very simple. It's, I think it's too hard to figure that out, but it might be the last gasp of an independent state making independent thoughts, almost like the British and Suez in the fifties. When they try to do any kind of, they try to do a military offensive without the consent of the U S and they were like, no, no, no, sit down. No, we like Egypt now.

You can't just go attack them. So it's, it's, it's Occam's razor. The simplest solution is usually the one that's it. Right. Like everybody's like, Oh, he's just sending in the JV team to soften them up. And it's like, no, no, that's a T 90. Like that's the new thing. Like, and then all of a sudden, like two weeks later, the Scooby

Doo bus has a Z on it. Like, I think that was the varsity. Like, I think that's the JV. Like it's crazy, man. And so like, I'm sure everybody, I hope people like watch this on like Monday going into the office and they're like, well, I listened to two idiots talk about it.

And they think that Putin's been lied to. And they'll be like, what? Like, he's gonna sound like the simplest answer. That's not interesting, but it is. It's not the one you wanna hear. It's not like he's got this super master plan. You can't even say that Putin was lying because on one hand he's like, yeah, calling Ukrainians Nazis is pretty wild. But on the other hand, he's like, no, I just want a buffer state. That's it. Yeah. That's very much. That's what the British and the Russians did back in the day with Afghanistan. It was the buffer between the two empires.

That's what Belarus is. That's why they're not allowed to officially join either side. They're just kind of, you know, aside the wrong, but it's, there's no way they're going to be assimilated into the Russian Federation because the world need that buffer right there. And that's why they're very up in arms about the Baltic States when they joined NATO and then Georgia, when they attempted to join NATO, which is they're like, we cannot have these guys right on the border. So it's just,

they wanted Ukraine to play nice. Yeah, be our friend. And like we were talking about, right? Like, why didn't Russia just make this great economy, be a great person? It's like, you know what it is? It's the neck, it's, it's neck beard effect. Like I'm a good guy. Why is why is why is she with that asshole? Like why is she? Yeah, like right like it's like Putin's a nut beard. That's the best way to put it. Like every woman just right now understood. And that's that's don't get that wrong. Like every woman just understood international politics. Like, oh my God, Putin's a nice guy. Like he thought that he could win Ukraine over by holding the door open and like, see, I didn't invade you. You should sleep with me.

Like, that's not a good thing. That's not, that's not a, that's not an expectation. Not like a reward. Like, that's the best way to put it. Putin's a neckbeard who's like, if they only knew how good I am, like they'd all come running to me. He's like, help me, I can protect you from what I'm going to do if you don't let me help you.

Yeah, right? Like, come on, Ukraine, I bought you some gas, you should sleep with me tonight. Like, no, God, no. Like, ugh, bitch. Drive the new Ford Raptor. I know your gas is $95 right now. Yeah. Where's my hug at, Ukraine? Don't touch me. Fuck it.

But yeah, man, that's it for me, if you're good. Yeah, good on my end. It was a thank you for setting up. What is this? It's been about 50 minutes or so. But yeah, for the listeners out there, it might be an interesting way to apply the podcast going forward where we made Yo-Yo between, as in last week, I had an actual guest come on and talk about what's going on in his side of the world. And then we might follow most of them up with the Cro-A-Tone report, getting together discussing current events.

So it's a new guest, new us, new us. We'll see how it goes. We'll see how this method works. But all right, I will let you go and kick this out for everyone here soon. All right, man. All right, take it easy. Good to breath.