Let's Find Common Ground - Trials, Debates, and the Strange 2024 Election

Episode Date: September 13, 2024

CPF Co-Directors Bob Shrum and Mike Murphy join Fall 2024 CPF Fellows, Jeff Blattner, Mike Bonin, Jane Coaston, Lea Endres, and Carissa Smith, for a discussion on recent political trials, the historic presidential debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, and how the 2024 presidential race is shaping up.   Featuring:  Jeff Blattner: Former Deputy Assistant Attorney General for U.S. DOJ Mike Bonin: Former LA City Councilmember Jane Coaston: Journalist and CNN Contributor Lea Endres: Co-Founder and CEO of NationBuilder Carissa Smith: Former White House Senior Public Engagement Officer    Bob Shrum: Director, Center for the Political Future; Warschaw Chair in Practical Politics, USC Dornsife Mike Murphy: Co-Director, Center for the Political Future; NBC Political Analyst

Welcome to the Bully Pulpit from the University of Southern California Center for the Political Future. Our podcast brings together America's top politicians, journalists, academics, and strategists from across the political spectrum for discussions on hot button issues where we respect each other and respect the truth. We hope you enjoy these conversations. I'm Bob Shrum, the director of the Center for the Political Future at USC Dornsife. In a few minutes, Mike Murphy, the center's co-director, will join us. He's having technical difficulties right now. But welcome to the first event of this academic year. We are fortunate to have five superb fellows who will be leading study groups this semester.

Today you'll meet them. Jeff Blattner is a special assistant attorney general for Colorado. He was a law clerk for Associate Justice Potter Stewart of the U.S. Supreme Court. He worked for justices Sandra Day O'Connor, William Brennan, Harry Blackman, and Lewis Powell. He served on Senator Edward Kennedy's staff on the Senate Judiciary Committee and focused on the confirmation of judicial nominees. Mike Bonin is a progressive leader with more than 25 years of experience in Los Angeles government, politics, and public service. five years of experience in Los Angeles government, politics, and public service. As a member of the LA City Council from 2013 to 2022, he led on issues of homelessness and affordable housing. If I can add, he led rather bravely on those. Tenant protection,

transportation, reimagining public safety, and local responses to climate change. Jane Kostin is a contributing opinion writer for the New York Times, previously the host of the Opinion Sections podcast, The Argument, and senior political reporter at Vox with a focus on conservatism and the GOP. Leah Endres is an entrepreneur, educator, and human rights advocate. She currently serves on the board of the Center for Humane Technology. She was a founding board member of the Dream Corps and served in that capacity for nearly a decade.

Carissa Smith is an award-winning strategist in politics, government relations, and public engagement. She currently serves as the vice President of Government Relations for the Fox Corporation and previously served as Senior Advisor of Public Engagement for Women and Girls and Health in the Biden White House and as the National Women's Vote Director for the Biden campaign in 2020. As you might suspect, our discussion today will focus a little bit on I suspect our discussion today will focus a little bit on what's about to happen in a few hours, the debate between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. So let me start with this question.

Polls show that most voters know how they feel about Donald Trump one way or another, but many have yet to form an opinion on Kamala Harris. What does she have to do in tonight's debate to be successful? And Jane, you want to start? Yeah, I think that what she needs to do is, I mean, it's funny to be talking about this because I think that we've we were in the midst of an election in which, and I understand how Democrats feel about this, in which it seems like, well, there's one person who keeps ranting and raving about the 2020 election he lost and attempted to coup, and there's another person who didn't do any of that. So it seems pretty obvious, but I think for a lot of voters, what they wanna hear is like,

what is Kamala Harris going to do for me, going to do for the country, a forward-looking approach? I think that focusing on the issues as much as she can, I it's what it's again we are dealing with a debate with Donald Trump so there's like a decent chance this is gonna go off the rails within the first eight minutes. Like I vaguely remember the 2020 debate and it was unhinged. So I think as much as she can focusing on the economy focusing on issues that matter to voters. Because what I'm hearing when you look at the polling is that people are like, you know, I know she's vice president,

but being vice president isn't really that big a role unless you're Spiro Agnew. So I think that being able to talk about what she wants to do, what she wants to think about moving forward, having a forward looking candidacy that isn't based on 2020 relitigation, I think that's going to be really important. Jeff? First, I agree with Jane completely. I think, and I'm from Western Pennsylvania, where every candidate seems to be spending all their spare time. And I feel like explaining to folks there and in similar places, rural and urban, around the country, how President Harris is gonna make their lives better, give their children opportunity,

give them hope for the future, that's job one. That is the most important thing. I think the second thing for any new candidate on the stage, and she is new in the sense that as you were saying, people don't really know what she's done as vice president, there's a hurdle to overcome. Can she be president? Ronald Reagan crossed that hurdle in the debate with Jimmy Carter and the polls kind of opened up. I think if she can make that sale, she could see a similar bump in the polling.

Mike, we're just gonna go around the horn here. So I think there's two things that she needs to do. One, I think the most important is I think she needs to talk very tangibly about what people are genuinely worried about. I think it's not just enough to say she's for the middle class or that she cares about the economy. I think she needs to talk about the struggles that people are facing paying for childcare.

I think she needs to talk about the vulnerability that renters have to eviction. I think she needs to talk about the fear that every parent in the country has right now, that when their kids go to school, they might get shot at school. I think she needs to talk about those real, real kitchen table issues, the things that keep people up at night, because Trump won't. He'll talk about himself.

She needs to talk about what people out there care about. The other thing I think she needs to do is Trump will be attacking her and Biden and Democrats relentlessly on their record. And I think that her challenge is going to be deflecting those attacks without capitulating and not defending what Democrats stand for. So if he attacks her on her position on defunding, I don't think she needs to outflank him as being pro-law enforcement. I think she needs to stand up and say, what the hell are you talking about? We haven't defunded the police. We've defunded

housing and we've defunded healthcare and we've defunded childcare in this country. And those are the things we need to invest in. Leah? Great. Yeah. I think folks have really covered it, but I'll just add for me, I really want to see the contrast of character. I mean, this is an opportunity for her to show that who she is being unruffled by whatever might come from Donald Trump and really show her leadership and that it is in fact presidential. So I'm really looking forward to, I think just very simply put the contrast of character. Karissa, and given what you did in the White House,

what kind of role do you think reproductive rights might play in this debate? Well, I think it has been playing a huge role in the voter trends that we're seeing. And I do wanna take note is that I recently wrapped up serving as an advisor to Minyamore for the Democratic National Convention. So I was on the ground for more than a month

working behind the scenes on political strategy and outreach related to just this. What exactly was the message that we were trying to convey with introducing Vice President Kamala Harris to voters, to key constituencies during this time? And even with the 29 million viewers that tuned into her speech, there was still a hurdle that we had to essentially clear when it came to who she is,

what she has done. We saw from the inside out that there was still a level of unawareness of her record, unawareness based on the misinformation, unawareness of what she did as AG, right? And so even for her to step into with a very short, narrow, I think, runway to get ahead of America, you know, for the DNC speech, we had to really work to not only line up a convention that

added talkers, that added supporters, but also included key constituencies that speak to those very issues where voters are unfamiliar with her. With the short window of this announcement of her becoming the nominee, I know, as we have seen, she has really been on the ground running, hitting these swing states. She has been, you know, crisscrossing to these key constituencies, especially as it relates to Pennsylvania, especially as it relates to Georgia, especially as relates even some outreach related to reproductive rights in Florida. They just launched a reproductive freedom tour in Florida on the ground, essentially in the Republican Party's backyard,

right? In a sense where they have traditionally held strongholds. And so it's interesting to see that she, that her team and her are just taking a key approach to make sure that the messaging is solidified, but also that they have key constituencies and surrogates on the ground telling this message. So to the larger point, reproductive rights, I believe plays a huge role in this voter trend. But I think it even goes to her having to debunk what people feel about inflation and the economy, right, related to the Biden-Harris administration. What does she feel about when it comes to policing?

What does she feel when it comes to immigration? These are key issues that are on the top of mind for people at their kitchen tables. This is being discussed amongst not only nuclear families, but also larger community gatherings, is that people want to know where she stands. And I think with these next couple of weeks, that that is going to be key and top priority for her is to really come out strong, even in this debate of where she stands and that there is no faltering on her positions. Yeah, Mike Murphy has now joined us

and I'm gonna ask a question about Donald Trump to balance off this initial discussion. And then he can probably weigh in on that. And I suspect he'll have some more questions about Vice President Harris as well. Donald Trump has a very solid base inside the Republican Party, but he hasn't done much to reach out to independents. He seems to have a particular problem with younger voters, women especially in the suburbs, and people of color. What can he do,

if anything, to appeal tonight beyond his base voters? And is there much chance he'll do it? Anybody who wants to start with that can. I guess. Sorry I'm late to join. I just want to address the Kamala thing for a minute. This debate is not about Trump, it's about her. Trump is highly defined, she is not. That's both a huge vulnerability and it's a huge potential upside. So this thing is a stalemate and she can break through it if she convinced a third of the country that don't know much about her, if anything, that she's the way forward.

It's interesting, I got a hold of some of the secret dial testing this morning on our convention speech, which is where a political thing where we hook a bunch of voters up the jumper cables and they watch the speech and they turn knobs and rate it. There's even a technology now where your iPhone watches your facial expressions and analyzes it in real time. So what those said was she did a great job at the speech, but there's one thing voters hated, absolutely hated. The lines all dropped when she talked about Trump. They get Trump, they know what they think of Trump, not about Trump, it's about her. So if Trump can define her tonight, he's gonna win. If she can define herself and kind of live above Trump,

she's gonna do well. So as far as Bob's question about, will Trump reach out to independence? Will he do anything strategic? No, he's Trump. He will try to destroy her. He will try to define her in a negative way. And if he succeeds, it's gonna be a very good night for him.

So a lot of this, I think, is tactical in how you use television not to, with a serial high-speed liar, try to refute things point by point. You can't do it with Trump. A Trump riff will be, you know, she was in charge of the border to protect the drug ring her sister runs, which is why she murdered that guy in Cleveland everybody knows that was covered up. Now you start refuting that stuff, you just amplify. So I think this is not a point counterpoint debate

with scorekeeping. This is a can she connect to the country and explain her motive and her vision for the future or not, or will his interference deny her that? So I don't think any of the typical political calculation about independent soccer moms and all that, that's not a language Trump understands. He understands destroy her and with repeated attacks and that's what he'll try to do. I think the more she ignores him, the better.

He's etched in stone. She is not. Anyone else want to weigh in on this before Mike asks the question? Sorry. I just wanted to comment on this before Mike asks the question? Sorry. I just wanted to comment on that too, as I was interestingly reading a poll by the New York Times this morning. And what's interesting, we're also just seeing,

I think a resurgence of a similar narrative that surrounds former president Trump, is that he kind of represents this change. And they did a poll and it said that 25% of likely voters said that Harris represents a major change whereas compared to Trump they said that 53 percent of voters see that and I think some of that has just been that he has stuck to your point and defined that messaging of like you know the swamp I represent something new I'm an outsider of politics let's like you know

clear what has already been done and that has still remained etched in voters' mind. And I think also to your point when related to her is that she is attached to the Biden-Harris presidency. So how does she define herself outside of Biden? And what does that really look like? And tonight is the grand moment for her to do that. What is the change that she is going to bring to this nation and of course, as our president.

So how does she separate herself from Biden? It's a very delicate operation to do that, I think. Are there smart ways to do it without offending him or those who still in the Democratic Party are strongly positive about his presidency? As you say, I think it's a very delicate question, but I think she can say, look, I was the last person in the room with President Biden

when he made some of his key decisions. We didn't always agree, but those conversations are between him and me. I'm talking about the future, and here's what I'm gonna do as president, and then kind of go to the vision that Mike was just talking about and the programs that I think are proving to be pretty popular.

Not all of them, but certainly many of them are proving to be quite popular. But to just live it to the future. Yeah, I also think that the question isn't about her relationship with Biden. Trump is popular because he expresses this popular outrage and channels people's frustrations with a system that they feel is broken. Trump defines Biden as the symbol of that system.

I think her job is to reframe that and define that the system that is screwing people over is pharmaceutical companies, is corporate landlords, is this billionaire class that Trump is part of that is trying to leech itself off of society. People are being screwed by institutions and her job I think is to define what those are because she has a track record biting for consumers for instance, where she has taken that on. And I think that's a winning message.

I think something that's also important to remember is that Trump is really leaning on this idea. He has a conceit of 2016 that he didn't need to go wide, he needed to go deep with his own base. When we talk about the base, we are talking about the people who will like buy the merchandise and go to the concert, not people who just listen to an album.

His understanding of 2016 is that everybody loves me and that some people loves me more than anybody else and I need those people. That's why he selected JD Vance. That's why he's leaning in on literally every like all of like weirdo right freak right which is a term that people are using online. Even everything online. That's why he's leaning into it. And so I think that if there's a means by which you can emphasize the degree to which he is not going to be a president for everybody that he has decided he doesn't want to be like that.

Let's keep in mind that 2016 was the difference with about 75,000 votes. It wasn't about like, ah, like, you know, this grand sort of 75,000 votes in about three states. And so I think like really emphasizing the degree to which Trump has written off millions of Americans. And we've seen that happen with the Trump is candidates. We remember Terry Lake did in Arizona, literally saying we don't need McCain voters in Arizona.

We saw it with Doug Mastrana, we saw it with Tudor Dixon, we see it in Colorado, we see it in basically every state where you see Trumpists attempting to run. So I think, I'm really talking about like, he doesn't wanna talk to the rest of the country. He doesn't care about the rest of the country. He doesn't care about women in general, as people.

And so I think emphasizing that the relationship moving forward with the president, I think Kamala Harris should emphasize, like, she talked about being a president for everyone and work moving forward. And I think that making that contrast more abrupt would be helpful. Layla, you have anything to add? I do, but not about this specifically. I think one thing I'm really focused on, didn't mention this earlier, but Nation Builder is fiercely nonpartisan. So we work with folks of all stripes

in all different countries. And I think the thing that I've been really focused on beyond just the debate itself is the work that Michelle Obama referenced at the convention. What is it going to actually look like to organize and mobilize people after the debate with the remaining time that folks have in particular on the Democratic Party side?

So I'll keep those thoughts, I have a lot of thoughts but not specifically about the debate. Thanks, Bob. Mike, I'm gonna turn the next question over to you. Okay, thanks Bob. We pay too much attention to these polls where the margin of error moves around and we treat that like big seismic movement,

but most polls have trended in general direction a bit down for her since the convention. It's still a very tight race. The narrative that's getting some traction against her, and you saw that New York Times Sienna is liberal, which is becoming a big definition. Hard to get suburban Republicans if you're defined as a progressive candidate. And two, the idea of serial flip-flopper, because she is trying to move to the center

from her kind of left of Biden primary campaign. How would you handle that? Because the problem with the flip-flopping issue is over time it becomes a character issue. You become a cynical politician. On the other hand, if she doesn't get to the center, I don't know if she'll put the numbers together, she needs to really get Trump in those six key or you can argue seven key states. So the flip-flop issue, it'll be a big part of tonight.

She was a little defensive at CNN about it. What do we think she should do? Or what would you tell her to do? We may have disagreement. And why don't we start with Jeff? Hard question, agreed. I think relating how she's learned. I mean, we all grow, we all learn,

we all hopefully learn from our experiences. And so I've seen that, I mean, there are, it's cracking probably in Western Pennsylvania, a brutally hard one for her, given where the votes are. But I think she has to say more broadly, you know, I've been in the situation room when situations were breaking down and I've learned, you know, from those experience that we live in a real world, we have to be tough minded about America's energy security.

You pivot through experiences. I think we can all relate to that. It isn't the strongest ground possible, but you know, I think it's the best she can do practically. Mike, you've been on the ballot. You know what life is like in practical politics. What would you tell her to do about the flip-flop attack? Well, I think on the flip-flop attack,

I think he turned that right back at them very quickly. I think she sticks with her message that her values haven't changed and say, my opponents are the flip-floppers in this race. How many different positions has Donald Trump had in the past week and a half on abortion or IVF? Look at how Vance has changed his position from thinking Trump was Hitler to having his lips on his ass. I think you frame it that way. And then I think her answer at CNN was smart in that she

said that that her values have not changed and talk about what her values are. Her values are that we should have a government, whatever label you attach to a party, we should have a government that is standing up to make sure that kids aren't shot at school. We should have a government that is making sure that working families can afford a home. We should have a government that is making sure that parents can afford childcare in this country. And I think that's where you stick. Stick to the message, stick to values,

stick to what matters to people. Yeah, I think there's a play they can run that combines both those things, which is when you're vice president, you see everything. So I have learned experience and I think I've evolved to some better positions. On the other hand, my opponents flip-flop every day for political expediency. They do it for cynicism, I do it for what's good for the country. But what do we think ladies? Jane, what would you tell her to

do? Because she's gonna hear it tonight. I mean, I think that as much as you can avoid getting into a weird back-and-forth with him, unless it has to do with... Because like, let's keep in mind that Donald Trump is not the same Donald Trump of eight years ago. He is doing like, this is not going to be the same conversation he had four years ago or eight years ago. And so I really think like avoiding getting like locked in on this on any particular like back and forth with him, but staying focused on the issues. And among those issues are your choice and abortion, especially because

he's Trump went back and forth on abortion in the state of Florida twice last week. Where he, like his, where he stands on specific issues is really, I mean, it's the like yes and game that you do if you're a dorky theater kid, like I think that there's a sense to me that avoiding a back and forth is good, but staying focused on the, but staying focused on the issues and staying focused on an issue in which Trump is convinced that people don't actually care about abortion. And then the people who care about abortion in every direction keep saying we absolutely do. And so I think that like, yeah, I think that that's really

the emphasis, like don't go into a weird back and forth, just stay focused on the issues. It just so happens that I think that Kamala Harris on specific issues can take the better of him. I feel like there's a piece here around what leadership is. Leadership is listening to people and it's learning and it's evolving your position. So there's something really powerful to own, like was just said, and I think Mike said,

about the experience that she had as vice president and what rooms that she was in, and thus her positions have evolved. And for the record, I think that's a message to everybody, not just for Kamala or the debate tonight, but actually embracing what it means to be a leader and that you have to evolve your position based on data and facts and learning and listening. Yeah. You know, the greatest flip-flopper in history was Winston Churchill at the best line ever. When the facts changed, I changed my mind. What do you do? Yeah, you know, the greatest flip-flopper in history was Winston Churchill had the best line ever.

When the facts changed, I changed my mind. What do you do? Carissa, you want to do cleanup on this? I would say, I think it won't be Trump will call her flip-flopper, but this is where the moderators are going to be aggressive. Right. I think just to round out us discussing maybe some things she could stand on for tonight is to really just come out there with direct messaging of where she stands now.

I think if there's a prompt or if there's a question about her stances and what they were in the past, I think Jeff hit it right on, is that she can show this scope of evolving. She can show growing into the role. She's never been vice president before up until this moment. And I think anyone who knows or has been elected into office or worked with even legislators or been on the staff side, we all know that our congressman day one is not who they are when they leave congress and when they retire. Right? And that to me is something maybe she can lean into is to show what her evolution has looked like in our political career based on

the trans based on legislation based on as times are changing. And I do think that there is messaging that she's pointing towards when it comes to leaning back towards the center, because I think she recognizes is that in the center, she does need independent voters. And she does need centered voters to help her win ultimately in November. And so it'll be interesting to see how this plays out

overall as she is also, I think, shoring up some of these other constituencies, especially related to younger voters, more diverse voters, more intersectional voters. I think that there is a, there is a way for her to coexist her messaging, to be a candidate for all voters. I think Jane hit it on, hit it on the nose when it comes to president Trump is that he goes deep with his base. He knows where his base is. He affirms his base. He knows where his base is.

He affirms his base. He tells his base how he's a fan of them. And voters like to hear that you like them, right? And I think Trump over the years has done a really good job in making his voters feel loved and feel affirmed in what they believe. So he has been consistent in that. And I don't imagine that tonight he will deviate from that as well. Let me talk about something else with respect to the moderators.

They're certainly going to ask Donald Trump about his legal problems. What kind of role is that likely to play? And, you know, Vice President Harris, when she was asked about it recently, said something like, that's for the courts to decide. The voters have their own work to do in November. Is that a sufficient answer or should she pounce on him once that question is asked? Jeff, you're our legal eagle, so you can start off. I like their answer to that, honestly.

I don't think the voters want the courts to decide this election. I mean, they may after the election and we can get into that if you want. But I think it's about voters lives and not the criminal justice system. So I thought she would actually get that quite well. The crazy thing is you've got a couple of cases going on now. One where the judge said, I'm going to postpone sentencing until after the election. That's the New York hush money case. And the other one where the judge said, I'm going to pay no attention to the election. That's the DC January 6th federal case, and they're both right.

You know, they both sound neutral on their face, but I think the voters want to hear about the future. And the subtext about Trump and his criminal problems is gonna be abundant between now and November 5th, but it doesn't have to come from Vice President Harris. Jane, you're nodding your head. Yeah.

I just also think discussing Trump's legal stuff, it's more like in any way more specific than this person is unqualified and remember the last time he lost an election, I think is a mistake. Like it just really at a certain point, I think that, I mean, the hardest thing about this conversation and the hardest thing about people who care a lot about politics having these conversations is that we actually have no idea what most voters think about. Like, I encounter voters and talk to people all the time who genuinely could not tell you who their senator is, who the representative is, like any specifics you're just like, and you're like, you think

about it for a minute, you're like, why would you like added to a baseline level, like you don't, most people want a version of politics in which they their participation is not mandatory. And so I think that anything getting into the specifics of the legal wrangling, it's just like, you're gonna lose people. Not that it's not important, but I think that the people who care about it care about it so much that they may have convinced themselves that other people care about it too. And there are a host of issues like this.

When you look at what people actually are caring about, they're talking about the economy, they're talking about some specific issues, and then you see people who are like, actually, what everyone wants to talk about happens to be the thing that I majored in in college. That's just not how it works. Listen, is this already baked in, Carissa?

I mean, people know about Trump, you know, every time he's been indicted, you see the procession of cars headed in for him to get fingerprinted and get a mugshot. Is this like a big factor in the debate or in the election? I will, I will be honest. I have been using the youth voters and the polling and the trends related to our youth because they are the next largest block that will be voting for the first time in their lives. And honestly, we are not seeing trends from what the polls are showing that shows that

it's a big deal to them. What's a big deal to them is some of the things that even Mike outlined. It's like, we want to be safe when we go to school. We want to know that we can afford a livelihood. We want to know that we can set up shop for our families. We want to know that we could possibly become entrepreneurs and thrive. We want to know that our healthcare is protected. You rarely hear people talk about the, you know, the sentencing or what the charges are

against former President Trump, because for them, it's just not a close enough of proximity. I should say it's not in close proximity to them and what they're feeling at their kitchen tables. I think for the most part, she is really going to have to tell voters, she's going to have to introduce herself as like, how am I going to improve your kitchen table? What do those issues look like at your kitchen table? And how can I be the best person to represent you as governing America?

And I think overall that is to me where she should really stick to in her messaging and also just go with what is this change that I will bring especially related to the establishment. I think like I said, it's gonna be a line for her to have to essentially draw and to show her evolution. But also I think still engage and talk to those voters as well.

Voters like to hear that they're like, they don't want to be left apart. And so I think overall, it's not a big deal from what I'm seeing, especially with young voters. I mean, it's not a big deal across the board in most trends in polling. And I'm sure others may have thoughts or, you know, commentary on that on this call, but I have not seen that that was a major messaging thing that people wanted to hear about and voters are really caring about.

Yeah, it's a little stunning in the sense that you have the first indicted ex-president of the United States, and we're all sort of agreeing, or all of you are agreeing, that, yeah, that's not such a big factor in this election. Mike or Leah, do you dissent? I don't dissent, but I think for me, it's about Mike's point earlier. Mike talked about how everybody knows Trump, people still need to define their opinion of Kamala Harris. It's a 90 minute debate, subtract time for Trump talking, for transitions, for questions. She's got

probably 38 minutes to tell her story and to fill in the gaps. And I wouldn't waste a second of that on something that has been covered ad nauseam and everybody has an opinion on and knows about. I would focus on defining herself and and her agenda, just a matter of strategy and time. Doesn't she need a one-liner, Leah? Just, you a matter of strategy and time. I agree completely with Mike. Doesn't she need a one-liner, Leah? Just, you know. I was just gonna say I agree completely with Mike.

And frankly, people also choose to believe what they wanna believe. So if folks have already written that off, then why waste time on it? Yeah, I'm gonna turn this over to Mike again, but I think personally that her answer the other day was superb when she said, let's let the

judicial system take care of this and let's let the voters take care of business in November. Mike, next question. If you're you can pick the candidate Kamala or or the Donald if you're their campaign person what strength for tonight are you most confident in and what weakness are you most worried about? If I'm Harris, I'm really confident in the fact that she will not go into a nine 19 minute long tangent about sharks or electricity or the movie Bloodsport or like just the fact that like if you tell her to say something or if she says something, she will just say

it. She will not wander off. Like I think one of my favorite moments of the Republican National Convention was Nate Silver being like, okay, the first 10 minutes of his speech, great. Oh, no. Oh, no. Oh, no. Because now, I mean, the Times has pointed this out, we're in a position in which the age issue has been completely reversed. Like, I think it was always kind of bullshit for people to pretend like Trump isn't old and the idea that somehow his 78 is different than everybody else's 78. But I think that if I'm Harris's team, I'm feeling pretty confident about the

fact that like you, there is some level of direction she will take. That is not true for Trump. I think if you're Trump's team, you're assuming that whatever it is that he, his thing is that he can just keep doing that. But I think that again, what people forgot from the first debate, because Biden did so poorly is that it's not like Trump did well. It was just like a weird conversation about golf and who knows, but like, I think that if you're Harris's team, you're aware, like she is, no one has ever been able to tell Trump what to do. That's just never happened. And I think that if you're Harris's team, you feel pretty good about the fact that

like, she's not going to talk about sharps or Hannibal Lector. What are you worried about? If I'm, I think that the challenge will be that they're going to be everything that Harris says is going to be dissected in such a way that I think is weird. Like the whole Trump being Trump thing means that like Trump gets away with things that just he gets sainwashed in a way that other people don't. We know that. And so I think that what Harris needs to do, what I'd be worried about is just like, how will things that you think sound great and she thinks sound great be perceived by people who already don't like her? That's just the

environment we're in. Like you're gonna see a bunch of like right-wing folks tonight trying to be theater critics, which is the weirdest thing in the world when you're walking into the theater art and you already hate it. So I but I do think like they are going to be worried about her sounding confused about her sounding like she's too rehearsed, which is again a weird thing to be worried about because you know if her sounding like she's too rehearsed, which is again a weird thing to be worried about because you know, if she didn't sound rehearsed enough, you'd be mad at her too. But I do think that there's some concern about how she will be perceived.

Okay, anybody else? Two things one, if I were Trump's people, I'd be worried about legal fees, but I'd also be worried that like, the racism or sexism is just kind of spill out in some moment, honestly. I think some of the suspense tonight is trying to figure out what he's saying and doing when the mic is allegedly muted. I'm not sure we would have contained so. With her, I think

she's got a resistance being pinned down in places where the activist base is super tied to something that may scare off some middle American voters. Court packing is polls under 50%, but it's obviously a big issue for the base. There are a couple of others that are like that. And I think it's important that, as others were suggesting, that she kind of keep this at a general, more value-focused, future-oriented message. If I were on team Kamala,

I would be supremely confident that she will do something that Biden did not do in the first debate, which is seize an opening and insert the point she needs to make. What I'd be concerned about is her being asked about some California issues like proposition 36, the criminal justice one, or about the reparations bill in the California legislature. I think those are ones that can really sort of put her in an uncomfortable position. If I were

Trump's spokes, I'd be supremely confident that he is going to describe her as a nasty woman and I would be extremely worried that he's going to describe her as a nasty woman and I would be extremely worried that he's going to describe her as being a nasty woman. Leah? I think that was well said. I'll leave it there. Okay. Carissa, anything to add? No, I agree and echo a lot of sentiments already the other fellows have shared. I mean, I really think overall, you know, we can expect what we can expect from President Trump and I do think that with saying that that can also be his great, his weakness tonight. I think on the other hand, with Vice President Harris, we will see that she is probably really going to stick to her messaging, hopefully, and really nail down the record and also just

stick to introducing herself on these issues and matters that she will be prompted to answer. So I look forward to seeing how this plays out. I mean, this is the first time we all get to witness both of them go toe to toe or head to head, whatever. And so I'm actually just also keeping an open mind to the possibilities. We saw what the last debate did and we ended up with a whole different election or a different Democratic nominee. And so I'm also just open to the unseen of what can occur from this. You know, what you two think, Bob and Mike, about that question,

I mean, that's a really tough question. I think that what I would worry most about with Harris is that he'll distract her, that she'll be drawn in to a kind of point by point attempt to refute him. I think that what she needs to do is take a moment, not every moment, but take a moment and say, you know, almost everything he said in this debate is a lie. He just told another lie, refused the lie, and then pivot and go on and go back to her own message.

So, you know, I think that for her would be, be the right way forward. If I were Trump's people, I mean, Mike knows better than I do. I don't think he, somebody said this earlier. I don't think he listens to people. I think he, you know, that first 10 minutes of his convention speech, and, and I'm stealing this line from Mike from an event we did last night but I think he looked out and said oh my the crowd isn't responding to my you know this this attempt to remake me as someone who was almost assassinated and who now has a different view of the

world and yeah you could see it you could see him just start being like nope nope nope don't want to do it don't want to be normal and that's what I that's what I would be most worried about Mike well if I were the Trumpy I'd be drunk because he doesn't take any there's no campaign manager there's a snake pit of people fighting over money different flavors of yes man all trying to stab each other nobody Trump does whatever he wants. But if I could put a shock collar on him or something and try to get him to behave,

all I want him to do is say, while you're watching this, right after this debate go get all your bills. See how much more everything costs now. Think about what it was like when I was president. You're a lot better off now. Everything in your life is more expensive. The border is wide open,

and we can't afford the Biden-Harris economic plan to ruin what's left of the country. They're too weak, they're too liberal, and they hit you right in the pocketbook. You know, don't look at me, look at your bills. And I just repeat that 17 times. Border, border, border, inflation, inflation, cost of life. Don't don't trust the rhetoric Look at the dollars, but I don't think he'll do a bad version of that

But I don't think you'll be that discipline what I'd worry about is and this is the only button push I think she ought to mostly ignore him like a toddler, you know Donald needs a timeout So let me talk to you about you know, etc, etc But I would She could push his button by just saying he still doesn't understand that he lost the election fair and square That is because he believes it was Rob. That's how his behavior is motivated He's in an alternative reality universe in his crazy head So he could go off for seven minutes on that the votes were all printed on secret paper

You know and seek, you know, he could really go off into crazy world and people just stare and got enough of this. I'm exhausted with her. She's defensive. She doesn't do the flip-flop thing, but she doesn't like to admit she was wrong. She has to make growth.

She has to retreat, you know, she has to be like a skyscraper that can move in an earthquake rather than just getting rigid and falling over. And there was a little bit of that in Dana Bash. She got better in the second half, but they need to do a little software adjustment on her for that, because it's a big weakness.

The other thing is when she's mad, she starts sounding like a very rich lady who's mad at a waiter. I don't know why. It's kind of a Seinfeld thing. And don't get mad. The key to debates is have a good time. If you're relaxed at home, they love you because it's only politics. To them, it's all a reality show now, which is the great tragedy of our

democracy. So the more Donald is an object of ridicule in those of us in the real world and use the camera to connect to those people, the better she's going to do. There's no, you know, the biggest things that I've trained a lot of candidates for a lot of debates, so has Bob. The reason good debate training, we, you know, the bad debate training is the staff that hates the candidate has a chance to sit down the living room and bark questions at them. You're not ready, we have to ask tough questions, you know, why are you ugly? And the candidates hate the staff and it just spirals into craziness. What I always would do is build an exact replica. I do a lot of short debate

perhaps and everybody says, well you got to get a really mean litigator to play the... No! I would get a tax attorney with a photographic memory because everything the other person has ever said is a record. They all have the same answer on the 20 questions are the only questions and I get the candidates super familiar with the other candidates act so they're never surprised on stage they never say God that was a great answer I'm screwed I'm gonna lose my wife's gonna leave me I'm a national laughingstock they got to have confidence they have to be relaxed so she ought to play her game and and not over listen

to Trump. I don't think this is a debate where the clever comeback line is the key to everything. If there's an organic one, because most of them are candid and awful, some staff idiot wrote it and like, just tell them you're, you know, you're louder than a broken muffler. That'll turn everything around. No, won't be relaxed, natural, live in the moment and convince them you're the future. So I think she can do that if she gets a defensive crouch because she thinks she's not that great off-spritz she needs to relax that would worry me on their side that she digs in and why I'm for fracking that's all I got to tell you not as vice president I you see everything I can

even talk about the aliens at Roswell after the debate. And those facts change. I take a wider view. I've learned, and this is what I believe is good for the country, always often. We hear about violence all the time in the news, yet we rarely hear stories about peace. There are so many people who are working hard to promote solutions to violence, toxic polarization, and authoritarianism, often at great personal risk. We never hear about these stories, but at what cost? On Making Peace Visible, we speak with journalists, storytellers, and peace builders who are on the front lines of both peace and conflict.

You can find Making Peace Visible wherever you listen to podcasts. One last question about the debates. Certainly, in my experience, John Kerry in 2004 by the polling won all three debates and narrowly lost the election. Most debates, you could argue, presidential debates, have not affected the electoral outcome, possibly with the exception of 1960, which I think was critical for Kennedy, and 1980, arguably for Reagan. How much impact in terms of electoral outcome is this debate likely to have? And anyone can start. No guesses? I think that we will tell ourselves that had more of an impact than it may actually have.

I think that there will be the story we tell about the election after the fact and which we're like, oh, but all happened here. And I'm like, did it. Did it actually happen here? Like, I mean, it's the same thing that I think in 2016, you saw a lot of people pointing to the Comey letter. And I would like, I would love to go to like small town Wisconsin and see about the people who decided not to vote because of the James Comey letter. Like I want to meet that one person.

So I think that in the story we tell about the election, it'll have an impact, but I'm not sure how much it's going to actually matter in terms of how people actually vote. Jane, I agree with you completely. I think that's spot on. And at the end of the day, that it is about the work and the organizing work

in particular that happens afterwards. That's where I would put all of my money. In an election that could be decided by under a,000 votes and total in seven states, everything is decisive and nothing is decisive, right? I mean, you know, any one factor. I think unless there's a big, you know, amazing goof, and that's very, very unlikely, it is what Leah just said. It's going to be grinding it out in the trenches, you know, vote by vote in these seven states.

I'm contrarian on this. I normally take Bob's line. They're overrated. But she is unknown, which is incredible rocket fuel for her. She gets it right. It's also a weakness that could... Remember, we just had the first debate in American presidential history that knocked an incumbent president out of the race.

Uh, never happened before. So a really bad debate, if you're vulnerable is a really bad thing. So she has a really bad night tonight and gets defined as the flower that wilted in front of Trump and weak and Biden too, and everything there are stakes tonight, man, higher than normal, I would say. And more opportunity than normal. So I think it's kind of an abnormal debate. But we're-

What if that's fair, Mike, and Mike Dukakis, they lost in 88. I mean, he was cascading downward already because of the tank and other things, but that was a pretty bad moment for him. Yeah, it's kind of a tie ball. And this is the big jump. And there's a minute left in the game.

But if she can get the ball and have ball control, she's going to score a couple of times. And that'll put her where she needs to be to win this race. They don't really want Trump. They just don't really know who and what she is yet. And what they know about her isn't completely great yet. So she's got to move that needle. Yeah I'm a potential contrarian too because I think there's a chance that first I agree with Mike it's a big opportunity for her it's also a

big challenge for her to define herself but secondly I believe there's a chance that Donald Trump could go completely off the rails. They're telling him not to, but I think he could. And I think that would have a big impact. You know, in 1980, we had, I think, going into that debate, Reagan had about a three point lead. He ultimately won by 10 points. And there were two moments for Jimmy Carter that I think really hurt him. One was when he was asked about nuclear weapons.

And he said he talked to his 11-year-old daughter, Amy, about what we should do about nuclear weapons. And I think people were just completely perplexed. Well, Reagan was reassuring people that he actually favored arms control. But then came the classic moment where he was attacked on Medicare and Social Security and he did that there you go again which was not just about that issue it was a way

of saying he's not telling the truth about me about anything so I think there is a potential for this debate to have a very very big impact you know anybody else want to weigh in? Mike, do you have a- Bob, can I just say, I wanted to create space for other people, but just briefly, the thing that was so important,

I think about what Jane said, is this idea of the story we tell ourselves about the debate, because there's what happened, and then there's the story that gets made up about what happened, and I'm just not convinced that everyone's gonna share the same view of what actually occurred. So all to

say, I think it's a really fair point, unknown, you know, candidate, et cetera, and very, very unique debate. And I still am still going to put my money on the organizing afterwards, just to say. Yeah, it could have a huge audience. I mean, you know, I don't think you can trust the polling completely on this, but there was a survey out this morning that said 74% of people say they're gonna watch the debate. I mean, that would be unprecedented. You'd actually break the 1960 record on how many people watched the debate. But first, the sad irony is we could black out

debate coverage in California, Texas, New York, Massachusetts, and it wouldn't mean a thing. You know, this is really about six, maybe seven states with a remarkably small number of people in each state. It's just that what the electoral college has brought us in the modern era. So, you know, basically one out of every 300,000 American, well, I'll go wider, one out of every 300,000 American,

I'll go wider, one out of every 30,000 Americans has a meaningful outcome voice probably in this. You know, let's talk about, and then I'm gonna get you to talk a bit about your study groups, but let's talk about those six or seven states. They seem in most of the polling to be within a margin of error.

Which battleground states are you watching the most closely? They seem in most of the polling to be within a margin of error. Which battleground states are you watching the most closely? Why? Do you think Pennsylvania really is the tipping point state? Is it okay if I go? Of course it is. So I'm actually really interested in North Carolina because North Carolina could be, I have a thesis.

I try not to go on this with a thesis, but I think that one of the challenges Trump faces is that all of the people who he has, there's that book, Everything Trump Touches Dies, but which is I think in some times true, but let's keep in mind that like, he has endorsed Mark Robinson, the current Lieutenant Governor for Governor, and Mark Robinson is, if I may say, batshit insane.

Like this is someone who said that the Black Panther movie was being used by Jews to try and get money out of black people. This is what someone who said that abortions happen because women can't keep their skirts down. This is someone who basically wants to like hunt and fight LGBT people. And like you see his numbers are bad

because of course they are. We have seen in a couple of races we saw in 2022 in which Democrats won not necessarily because they were like amazing candidates even though many of them were but because they were going up against the craziest person on earth. Doug Mastriano for example in Pennsylvania. And so I will be interested to see if so many people who see Trump endorsing Mark Robinson and saying that he's like Martin Luther King on steroids, I think he actually said are like, absolutely not. Like Trumpism doesn't work for anyone else but Trump, because somehow Trump

has like celebrity and a history and everyone who tries to imitate him doesn't take on like populism, as you can hear from some people on the populist right, they take on being insane. And so I'm going to be really interested to see what happens in North Carolina. Someone else? Jeff, you're from Western Pennsylvania. Yeah, you know, I'm gonna go for the trifecta. I want to know what the Latino vote in Nevada, the black vote in Georgia and the white rural vote in the rust belt looks like. I think she has opportunities in all three places to move the needle. And I don't view those as like either or choices. I think a broad future oriented message to help working families can help with

all three. If no one else is going to weigh in on this, then I'm going to ask. Carissa, did you want to? No, I was just going to say, Jane, thank you for giving me flashbacks of the candidate Herschel Walker since I am here in Georgia. And I just got out, you know, and that really was, I think, the Republican Party biggest downfall was the quality of candidates that they ran that cycle. And I do think to your point that Trumpism-

Please, masters, come on. I do not think that the Trumpism effect, as they have seen, I wouldn't repeat that same mistake this cycle, not investing, I think, in good candidates that are actually viable to win. But also on that note, I do think I agree with you, Jeff, that she does, to me, have a lot of ground game that she could potentially pick up. Some other things I see is that just the organizing power on the ground doesn't seem to be felt from the Trump operation.

There's been numerous articles talking about their door knocking, their voter engagement. So some of that too seems to also be playing a role just also in the resources that they are deploying in these swing states. Like I said, I'm here in Georgia and I'm definitely seeing organizing apparatus on the ground in parts of Georgia that I did not expect for the Harris-Waltz campaign. And it's interesting to see exactly how they may plan

to kick up their organizing or outreach efforts in these key states that are within the margin of error and can make or break it for the Trump campaign. So those are just my thoughts on that. I can't resist being a contrarian a little, you know, I'm a message guy, so I'm all a, um, a, um, organization when even the messages write organizations and amplify around its own, it doesn't do a lot. So if she can, if she can message, well, it can be a value added. And that's what tonight is possibly about. We're going

to find out. She was kind of like the inert object lifted up by the, the, the tornado and twister because it was such joy Biden wasn't running. So it grabbed her and she didn't really have an engine and put her into the atmosphere and she's done an okay job managing that, which is hard, but the twister is going away away now she's going to fly in her own and we're going to learn a lot tonight I'm watching Georgia because I think she's in trouble in Pennsylvania I think she's underperforming I think Michigan my home state where I've done a lot of races she's going to have some resistance

there too and Nevada and Arizona don't look great although she's in the hunt she's doing scores better than Biden. Georgia is her Pennsylvania insurance. And because if you can get African American voter share up to the low 30s, and you hold your suburbanites in the Atlanta multiplex and a little piece of Savannah, she won Georgia. And then that makes up for trouble in the metal bending states, be it Michigan or Pennsylvania. And finally, I live in Los Angeles, so I'm surrounded by pearl clutching neurotic Democrats, God bless them, including my wife, and as a Trump hating and public endorser of Kamala Harris,

I'm part of the Bush Romney McCain alumni for Harris, although it's a character building experience for a right wing nut like me. People say, what can I do? What can I do? I say move to Omaha. And I'm not kidding. 5,000 votes in Omaha can tilt this election.

That congressional district could be the deciding vote if Trump wins Georgia in the South, if the North Carolina thing, which is if she wins North Carolina, she will have won the industrial Midwest and Georgia and potentially Nevada. That's like the cherry on top. It is a weird mathematical outcome, not impossible, but for her to win North Carolina and lose one of the other, you know, five or six. But that congressional district, the second district in Nebraska, which by the way is even a study of American itself. You've got kind of hipster downtown Omaha. You've got a rural Trump farm county

and he got an air force base. And together there are 50 50 district. So I have a lot of democratic friends where I want to go to Pennsylvania. I'm like, yeah, the cheaper airfare get to Omaha. Cause people are missing how critical that could be. If he wins the three Sunbelt states and she wins the three metal benders and is able to pull off it, Omaha will decide.

Yeah. Uh, so we're going to run out of time. I'm going to invite our audience to go to the Center for the Political Future website, easy to find at USC. Look at the amazing study groups that are going to be led by these fellows. I want to thank them for what was a terrific discussion, a great way to kick off the semester. And to the audience, I also want to invite you to watch our next event on September 12th at 3 p.m. on Zoom, where Mike and I will be analyzing the outcomes of the debate. And we'll see whether or not we agree.

Thanks, and have a great rest of the week. Thank you for joining us on the Bully Pulpit. It helps us a lot when you subscribe and rate the show five stars wherever you get your podcasts. Follow us on Twitter at USCPOLfuture. That's USCPOLfuture. Follow us on Facebook and YouTube and visit our website for upcoming programs.