Lex Fridman Podcast - #475 – Demis Hassabis: Future of AI, Simulating Reality, Physics and Video Games
Episode Date: July 23, 2025Demis Hassabis is the CEO of Google DeepMind and Nobel Prize winner for his groundbreaking work in protein structure prediction using AI. Thank you for listening ❤ Check out our sponsors: https://le...xfridman.com/sponsors/ep475-sc See below for timestamps, transcript, and to give feedback, submit questions, contact Lex, etc. Transcript: https://lexfridman.com/demis-hassabis-2-transcript CONTACT LEX: Feedback - give feedback to Lex: https://lexfridman.com/survey AMA - submit questions, videos or call-in: https://lexfridman.com/ama Hiring - join our team: https://lexfridman.com/hiring Other - other ways to get in touch: https://lexfridman.com/contact EPISODE LINKS: Demis's X: https://x.com/demishassabis DeepMind's X: https://x.com/GoogleDeepMind DeepMind's Instagram: https://instagram.com/GoogleDeepMind DeepMind's Website: https://deepmind.google/ Gemini's Website: https://gemini.google.com/ Isomorphic Labs: https://isomorphiclabs.com/ The MANIAC (book): https://amzn.to/4lOXJ81 Life Ascending (book): https://amzn.to/3AhUP7z SPONSORS: To support this podcast, check out our sponsors & get discounts: Hampton: Community for high-growth founders and CEOs. Go to https://joinhampton.com/lex Fin: AI agent for customer service. Go to https://fin.ai/lex Shopify: Sell stuff online. Go to https://shopify.com/lex LMNT: Zero-sugar electrolyte drink mix. Go to https://drinkLMNT.com/lex AG1: All-in-one daily nutrition drink. Go to https://drinkag1.com/lex OUTLINE: (00:00) - Introduction (00:29) - Sponsors, Comments, and Reflections (08:40) - Learnable patterns in nature (12:22) - Computation and P vs NP (21:00) - Veo 3 and understanding reality (25:24) - Video games (37:26) - AlphaEvolve (43:27) - AI research (47:51) - Simulating a biological organism (52:34) - Origin of life (58:49) - Path to AGI (1:09:35) - Scaling laws (1:12:51) - Compute (1:15:38) - Future of energy (1:19:34) - Human nature (1:24:28) - Google and the race to AGI (1:42:27) - Competition and AI talent (1:49:01) - Future of programming (1:55:27) - John von Neumann (2:04:41) - p(doom) (2:09:24) - Humanity (2:12:30) - Consciousness and quantum computation (2:18:40) - David Foster Wallace (2:25:54) - Education and research PODCAST LINKS: - Podcast Website: https://lexfridman.com/podcast - Apple Podcasts: https://apple.co/2lwqZIr - Spotify: https://spoti.fi/2nEwCF8 - RSS: https://lexfridman.com/feed/podcast/ - Podcast Playlist: https://www.youtube.com/playlist?list=PLrAXtmErZgOdP_8GztsuKi9nrraNbKKp4 - Clips Channel: https://www.youtube.com/lexclips
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The following is a conversation with Demis Kassabis, his second time on the podcast.
He is the leader of Google DeepMind and is now a Nobel Prize winner.
Demis is one of the most brilliant and fascinating minds in the world today,
working on understanding and building intelligence, and exploring the big mysteries of our universe.
This was truly an honor and a pleasure for me. intelligence and exploring the big mysteries of our universe.
This was truly an honor and a pleasure for me.
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And now, dear friends, here's Demis Hassabis.
Now, dear friends, here's Demis Hassabis. In your Nobel Prize lecture, you propose what I think is a super interesting conjecture that,
quote, any pattern that can be generated or found in nature can be
efficiently discovered and modeled by a classical learning algorithm.
What patterns of systems might be included in that?
Biology, chemistry, physics, maybe cosmology, neuroscience.
What are we talking about?
Sure. Well, look, I felt that it's sort of a tradition,
I think, of Nobel Prize lectures that you're supposed to be a little provocative,
and I wanted to follow that tradition.
What I was talking about there is if you take a step back and you look at
all the work that we've done, especially with the Alpha X projects.
I'm thinking AlphaGo, of course, AlphaFold.
What they really are is we're building
models of very combinatorially high dimensional spaces that if you try to brute force a solution,
find the best moving Go, or find the exact shape of a protein, and if you enumerated
all the possibilities, there wouldn't be enough time in the time of the universe. So you have
to do something much smarter. And what we did in both cases was build models of those environments. And
that guided the search in a smart way. And that makes it tractable. So if you think about
protein folding, which is obviously a natural system, you know, why should that be possible?
How does physics do that? You know, proteins fold in milliseconds in our bodies. So somehow
physics solves this problem that we've now also solved computationally.
And I think the reason that's possible is that in nature, natural systems have
structure because they were subject to evolutionary processes that shaped them.
And if that's true, then you can maybe learn what that structure is.
So this perspective, I think is really interesting one.
You've hinted at it, which is almost like crudely stated.
Anything that can be evolved can be efficiently modeled.
Think there's some truth to that?
Yeah.
I sometimes call it survival of the stable list or something like that, because,
you know, it's, it's of course, there's evolution for life, living things. But there's also,
if you think about geological time, so the shape of mountains, that's been shaped by
weathering processes, right over thousands of years. But then you can even take it cosmological,
the orbits of planets, the shapes of asteroids. These have all been survived processes that
have acted on them many, many times. If that's
true then there should be some sort of pattern that you can reverse learn and a kind of manifold
really that helps you search to the right solution, to the right shape, and actually
allow you to predict things about it in an efficient way because it's not a random pattern.
It may not be possible for man-made
things or abstract things like factorizing large numbers, because unless there's patterns
in the number space, which there might be, but if there's not and it's uniform, then
there's no pattern to learn. There's no model to learn that will help you search. You have
to do brute force. In that case, you maybe need a quantum computer, something like this.
But in most things in nature that we're interested in, uh, are not like that.
They have structure, um, that evolved for a reason and survived over time.
And if that's true, I think that's potentially learnable by in your network.
It's like nature is doing a search process and it's so fascinating that
it's in that search process is creating systems that can be efficiently modeled.
Yes, right. Yeah.
So interesting.
So they can be efficiently rediscovered or recovered because nature is not random, right?
Everything that we see around us, including like the elements that are more stable,
all of those things, they're subject to some kind of selection process, pressure.
Do you think, because you're also a fan of theoretical computer science and complexity,
do you think we can come up with a kind of complexity class
like a complexity zoo type of class
where maybe it's the set of learnable systems,
the set of learnable natural systems, LNS.
This is a,
Demis is obvious,
new class of systems that could be actually learnable by classical systems in this kind
of way, natural systems that can be modeled efficiently.
Yeah. I mean, I've always been fascinated by the P equals MP question and what is modelable
by classical systems, i.e. non-quantum systems, you know, Turing machines in effect. And that's
exactly what I'm working on actually in kind in my few moments of spare time with a few
colleagues about should there be maybe a new class of problem that is solvable by this
type of neural network process and mapped onto these natural systems, the things that
exist in physics and have structure.
I think that could be a very interesting new way of thinking about it.
And it sort of fits with the way I think about physics
in general, which is that, you know,
I think information is primary.
Information is the most sort of fundamental unit
of the universe, more fundamental than energy and matter.
I think they can all be converted into each other,
but I think of the universe
as a kind of informational system.
So when you think of the universe
as an informational system,
then the P
equals NP question is a physics question. That's right. And it's a question that can help us actually
solve the entirety of this whole thing going on. Yeah, I think it's one of the most fundamental
questions actually, if you think of physics as informational. And the answer to that, I think,
is going to be very enlightening. More specific to the P and P question.
This, again, some of the stuff we're saying is kind of crazy right now.
Just like the Christian, Edmundson Nobel Prize speech, controversial
thing that he said sounded crazy.
And then you went and got a Nobel Prize for this with John
Jumper, solved the problem.
So let me, let me just stick to the P equals NP.
Do you think there's something in this thing we're talking about that could be shown if you can do something like a polynomial time or constant time compute ahead of time and construct this gigantic model, then you can solve some of these extremely difficult problems in a theoretical computer
science kind of way.
Yeah, I think that there are actually a huge class of problems that could be couched in
this way, the way we did AlphaGo and the way we did AlphaFold, where you model what the
dynamics of the system is, the properties of that system, the environment that you're
trying to understand, and Then that makes the search for
the solution or the prediction of the next step efficient,
basically polynomial time, so tractable by a classical system,
which in your network is it runs on normal computers,
classical computers, Turing machines in effect.
I think it's one of the most interesting questions there is,
is how far
can that paradigm go? You know, I think we've proven and the AI community in general that
classical systems, Turing machines can go a lot further than we previously thought. You know,
they can do things like model the structures of proteins and play go to better than world champion
level. And, you know, a lot of people would have thought maybe 10, 20 years ago
that was decades away, or maybe you would need some sort of quantum machines to quantum
systems to be able to do things like protein folding. I think we haven't really even sort
of scratched the surface yet of what classical systems so-called could do. Of course, AGI
being built on a neural network system,
on top of a neural network system,
on top of a classical computer,
would be the ultimate expression of that.
And I think the limit, you know,
what the bounds of that kind of system,
what it can do, it's a very interesting question,
and directly speaks to the P equals NP question.
What do you think, again,
hypothetical might be outside of this?
Maybe emergent phenomena,
like if you look at cellular automata,
some of the, you have extremely simple systems
and then some complexity emerges.
Maybe that would be outside or even,
would you guess even that might be amenable
to efficient modeling by a classical machine?
Yeah, I think those systems would be right on the boundary, right?
So I think most emergent systems, cellular automata, things like that, could be modelable
by a classical system.
You just sort of do a forward simulation of it and it'd probably be efficient enough.
Of course, there's the question of things like chaotic systems where the initial conditions
really matter and then you get to some uncorrelated
end state, those could be difficult to model.
I think these are the open questions.
But I think when you step back and look at what we've done with the systems and the problems
that we've solved, and then you look at things like VO3 on video generation, rendering physics
and lighting and things like that, you know,
really core fundamental things in physics. It's pretty interesting. I think it's telling
us something quite fundamental about how the universe is structured, in my opinion. So,
you know, in a way, that's what I want to build AGI for is to help us as scientists
answer these questions, like P equals MP.
Yeah, I think we might be continuously surprised
about what is modelable by classical computers.
I mean, alpha fold three on the interaction side
is surprising that you can make any kind of progress
on that direction.
Alpha genome is surprising that you can map
the genetic code to the function.
Kind of playing with the emergent kind of phenomena.
You think there's so many combinatorial options
and then here you go.
You can find the kernel that is efficiently modeled.
Yes, because there's some structure,
there's some landscape in the energy landscape
or whatever it is that you can follow,
some gradient you can follow.
And of course, what neural networks are very good at
is following gradients.
And so if there's one to follow
and you can specify the objective function
correctly, you know, you don't have to deal with all that
complexity, which I think is how we maybe have naively thought
about it for decades, those problems, if you just enumerate
all the possibilities, it looks totally intractable. And there's
many, many problems like that. And then you think, well, it's
like 10 to 300, proper possible protein structures, 10 to the
hundred and, you know, 70 possible go positions.
All of these are way more than atoms in the universe.
So how could one possibly find the right solution or predict the next step?
But it turns out that it is possible.
And of course, reality in nature does do it, right?
Proteins do fold.
So that gives you confidence that there must be, if we understood how physics was doing that
in a sense, and we could mimic that process, I.e. model that process, it should be possible
on our classical systems is basically what the conjecture is about.
TITO And of course, there's nonlinear dynamical
systems, highly nonlinear dynamical systems, everything involving fluid. Yes.
Right.
You know, I recently had a conversation with Terence Tao, who mathematically contends with
a very difficult aspect of systems that have some singularities in them that break the
mathematics.
And it's just hard for us humans to make any kind of clean predictions about highly nonlinear
dynamical systems.
But again, to your point,
we might be very surprised with classical learning systems might be able to do about even fluid.
Yes, exactly. I mean, fluid dynamics, Navier-Stokes equations, these are traditionally thought it was
very, very difficult, intractable kind of problems to do on classical systems. They take enormous
amounts of compute, you know, weather prediction systems, you systems, these kind of things all involve fluid dynamics calculations.
But again, if you look at something like Vio, our video generation model, it can model liquids
quite well, surprisingly well, and materials, specular lighting.
I love the ones where there's people who generate videos where there's clear liquids going through
hydraulic presses and then it's being squeezed out.
I used to write physics engines and graphics engines in my early days in gaming and I know
it's just so painstakingly hard to build programs that can do that.
And yet somehow these systems are reverse engineering from just watching YouTube videos.
So presumably what's happening is, it's extracting some underlying structure
around how these materials behave.
So perhaps there is some kind of lower dimensional manifold
that can be learned if we actually fully understood
what's going on under the hood.
That's maybe true of most of reality.
Yeah, I've been continuously precisely
by this aspect of VO3.
I think a lot of people highlight different aspects, including the comedic and the meat
and all that kind of stuff.
And then the ultra realistic ability to capture humans in a really nice way that's compelling
and feels close to reality and then combine that with native audio.
All of those are marvelous things about VO3, but exactly the thing you're mentioning,
which is the physics.
Yeah.
It's not perfect, but it's pretty damn good.
And then the really interesting scientific question is,
what is it understanding about our world
in order to be able to do that?
Because of the cynical take with the diffusion models,
there's no way it understands anything.
But it seems, I mean, I don't think you can generate that kind of video without
understanding and then our own philosophical notion of what it means to
understand then is like brought to the surface.
Like do, to what degree do you think VO3 understands our world?
I think to the extent that it can predict the next frames, you know, in a coherent
way, that's some, that is a form of understanding,
right? Not in the anthropomorphic version of it's not some kind of deep philosophical
understanding of what's going on. I don't think these systems have that. But they certainly have
modeled enough of the dynamics, put it that way, that they can pretty accurately generate whatever
it is, eight seconds of consistent video that by eye,
at least at a glance,
is quite hard to distinguish what the issues are.
And imagine that in two or three more years time.
That's the thing I'm thinking about
and how incredible they will look,
given where we've come from,
the early versions of that one or two years ago.
And so the rate of progress is incredible incredible. I think I'm like you, a lot
of people love all of the stand-up comedians and that actually captures a lot of human
dynamics very well and body language. But actually, the thing I'm most impressed with
and fascinated by is the physics behavior, the lighting and materials and liquids and it's pretty amazing that it can do that.
And I think that shows that it has some notion of at least intuitive physics, right? How
things are supposed to work intuitively, maybe the way that a human child would understand
physics, right? As opposed to a PhD student really being able to unpack all the equations.
It's more of an intuitive physics understanding.
Well, that intuitive physics understanding, that's the base layer.
That's the thing people sometimes call a common sense.
It really understands something. I think that really surprised a lot of people.
It blows my mind that I just didn't think it would be possible
to generate that level of realism without understanding.
You know, there's this notion
that you can only understand the physical world
by having an embodied AI system,
a robot that interacts with that world.
That's the only way to construct an understanding
of that world.
But VO3 is directly challenging that, it feels like.
Yes, and it's very interesting, you know,
even if you were to ask me five, 10 years ago, I would I would have said even though I was immersed in all of this, I would
have said, well, yeah, you probably need to understand intuitive physics, you know, like,
if I push this off the table, this glass, it will maybe shatter, you know, and the liquid will spill
out, right. So we know all of these things. But I thought that, you know, there's a lot of theories
in neuroscience is called action in perception, where, perception, where you need to act in the world to really truly perceive it in
a deep way. And there was a lot of theories about you'd need embodied intelligence or
robotics or something, or maybe at least simulated action, so that you would understand things
like intuitive physics. But it seems like you can understand it through passive observation,
which is pretty
surprising to me. And again, I think hints at something underlying about the nature of
reality, in my opinion, beyond just the cool videos that it generates. And of course, there's
next stages is maybe even making those videos interactive. So one can actually step into
them and move around them, which
would be really mind-blowing, especially given my games background. So you can
imagine. And then I think, you know, we're starting to get towards
what I would call a world model, a model of how the world works, the mechanics of
the world, the physics of the world, and the things in that world. And of course,
that's what you would need for a true AGI system. I have to talk to you about video games.
So you were being a bit trolly.
I think you're having more and more fun on Twitter on X,
which is great to see.
So a guy named Jimmy Apples tweeted,
"'Let me play a video game of my VO3 videos already.
Google cooked so good, playable world models when?'
Spelled W-E-N question mark.
And then you quote treated that with,
now wouldn't that be something.
So how hard is it to build game worlds with AI?
Maybe can you look out into the future of video games
five, 10 years out?
What do you think that looks like?
Well, games were my first love really.
And doing AI for games was the first thing I did
professionally in my teenage years and was the first major AI systems that I built.
I always want to scratch that each one day and come back to that.
I will do, I think.
I dream about what would I have done back in the 90s if I'd had access to the kind
of AI systems
we have today. I think you could build absolutely mind-blowing games. I think the next stage is,
I always used to love making all the games I've made are open world games. They're games where
there's a simulation and then there's AI characters and then the player interacts with that simulation
and the simulation adapts to the way the player plays.
And I always thought they were the coolest games because, so games like Theme Park that
I worked on where everybody's game experience would be unique to them, right?
Because you're kind of co-creating the game, right?
We set up the parameters, we set up initial conditions, and then you as the player immersed
in it, and then you are co-creating it with the simulation. But of course, it's very
hard to program open world games. You've got to be able to create content whichever direction the
player goes in and you want it to be compelling no matter what the player chooses. And so it was
always quite difficult to build things like cellular automata actually type of those kind
of classical systems which created some emergent behavior. But they're always a little bit
fragile, a little bit limited. Now we're maybe on the cusp in
the next few years, five, 10 years of having AI systems that
can truly create around your imagination, can sort of
dynamically change the story and storytell the narrative around
and make it dramatic no matter what you end up choosing. So
it's like the ultimate choose your own adventure
sort of game.
And I think maybe we're within reach
if you think of a kind of interactive version of VO
and then wind that forward five to 10 years
and imagine how good it's gonna be.
Yeah, so you said a lot of super interesting stuff there.
So one, the open world built into that
is a deep personalization, the way you described it.
So it's not just that it's open world,
like you can open any door and there'll be something there.
It's that the choice of which door you open
in an unconstrained way defines the worlds you see.
So some games try to do that to give you choice,
but it's really just an illusion of choice
because you only, like Stanley Parable,
this is a game I personally play,
it's really, there's a couple of doors
and it really just takes you down a narrative.
Stanley Parable is a great video game
I recommend people play that kind of in a meta way
mocks the illusion of choice
and there's philosophical notions of free will and so on.
But I do, like one of my favorite games,
Felder Scrolls, is Daggerfall, I believe,
that they really played with a random generation
of the dungeons of if you can step in
and they give you this feeling of an open world.
And there, you mentioned interactivity.
You don't need to interact.
That's a first step because you don't need to interact that much.
You just, when you open the door, whatever you see is randomly generated for you.
And that's already an incredible experience because you might be
the only person to ever see that.
Yeah, exactly.
And, and so, but what you'd like is a little bit better than
just sort of a random generation. Right? Yeah, exactly. But what you'd like is a little bit better than just
a random generation.
So you'd like, and also better than a simple AB hardcoded
choice, that's not really open world.
As you say, it's just giving you the illusion of choice.
What you want to be able to do is potentially anything
in that game environment.
And I think the only way you can do that
is to have generated systems, systems that
will generate that on the fly. Of course, you can't create infinite amounts of game assets,
right? It's expensive enough already how AAA games are made today. And that was obvious to us back in
the 90s when I was working on all these games. I think maybe Black and White was the game that I
worked on early stages of that, that had
the still probably the best AI learning AI in it. It was an early reinforcement learning
system that you were looking after this mythical creature and growing it and nurturing it.
And depending how you treated it, it would treat the villagers in that world in the same
way. So if you were mean to it, it would be mean. If you were good, it would be protective.
And so it was really a reflection of the way you played it. So actually, all of the, I've been working on
sort of simulations and AI through the medium of games at the beginning of my career. And
really the whole of what I do today is still a follow on from those early, more hard coded
ways of doing the AI to now, you know, fully general learning systems that are trying to
achieve the same thing.
Yeah, it's been interesting, hilarious, and fun to watch you and Elon obviously itching
to create games because you're both gamers.
And one of the sad aspects of your incredible success in so many domains of science, like
serious adult stuff, that you might not have time to really create a game,
you might end up creating the tooling
that others would create the game.
You have to watch others create the thing
you've always dreamed of.
Do you think it's possible you can somehow
in your extremely busy schedule actually find time
to create something like Black and White,
some, an actual video game where you could
make the childhood dream come to reality.
Well, there's two things I think about that is maybe with vibe coding as it gets better,
there's a possibility that one could do that actually in your spare time.
So I'm quite excited about that.
That would be my project if I got the time to do some vibe coding
I'm actually itching to do that and then the other thing is, you know
Maybe it's a sabbatical after a GI has been safely stewarded into the world and delivered into the world
You know that and then working on my physics theory as we talked about at the beginning
Those would be the two my my two post a GI projects. Let's call it that way
I would love to see we'll-AGI, which you choose,
solving the problem that some of the smartest people
in human history contended with, so P equals NP,
or creating a cool video.
Yeah, but in my world, they'd be related
because it would be an open world simulated game
as realistic as possible.
So, you know, what is the universe?
That's speaking to the same question, right?
MP equals MP.
I think all these things are related,
at least in my mind.
I mean, in a really serious way,
it's like video games sometimes are looked down upon.
That's just this fun side activity.
But especially as AI does more and more
of the difficult, boring tasks,
something we in modern world called work.
You know, video games is the thing in which we may find meaning in which we may
find like what to do with our time.
You could create incredibly rich, meaningful experiences.
Like that's what human life is.
And then in video games, you can create more sophisticated,
more diverse ways of living.
Yeah.
I think so.
I mean, those of us who love games and I still do is,
you know, it's almost can let your imagination run wild.
Right? Like I used to love games and working on games so much because it's the fusion, especially
in the 90s and early 2000s, the sort of golden era, maybe the 80s of the games industry.
And it was all being discovered, new genres were being discovered.
We weren't just making games, we felt we were creating a new entertainment medium that never
existed before. Especially with these open world games and simulation games where you were co-create,
you as the player were co-creating the story. There's no other media, entertainment media,
where you do that, where you as the audience actually co-create the story. And of course,
now with multiplayer games as well, it can be a very social activity and can explore all kinds of interesting worlds in that.
But on the other hand, it's very important to also enjoy and experience the physical
world.
But the question is then, I think we're going to have to kind of confront the question again
of what is the fundamental nature of reality?
What is going to be the difference between these increasingly realistic simulations and
multiplayer ones and emergent and what we do in the real world.
Yeah, there's clearly a huge amount of value to experiencing the real world
nature. There's also a huge amount of value in experiencing other humans
directly in person the way we're sitting here today, but we need to really
scientifically rigorously answer the question why.
Yeah.
And which aspect of that can be mapped
into the virtual world.
Exactly.
And it's not enough to say,
yeah, you should go touch grass and hang out in nature.
It's like, why exactly is that valuable?
Yes, and I guess that's maybe the thing
that's been haunting me, obsessing me
from the beginning of my career.
If you think about all the different things I've done,
they're all related in that way.
The simulation, nature of reality,
and what is the bounds of what can be modeled.
Sorry for the ridiculous question,
but so far, what is the greatest video game of all time?
What's up there?
My favorite one of all time is Civilization, I have to say.
That was the Civilization 1 and Civilization 2, my favorite games of all time is civilization. I have to say that that was the the civilization one and civilization to my favorite games of all time
I can only assume you've avoided the most recent one because
It would probably you would that would be your sabbatical that you would disappear
They take a lot of time these civilization games. So I've got to be careful with them fun question you and Elon seem to be
somehow solid gamers.
Is there a connection between being great at gaming and being great leaders of AI companies?
I don't know. It's an interesting one. I mean, we both love games and it's interesting he wrote games as well to start off with.
It's probably, especially in the era I grew up in where home computers just became a thing
in the late 80s and 90s, especially in the UK. I had a Spectrum and then a Commodore Mica 500,
which is my favorite computer ever. That's why I learned all my programming. Of course,
it's a very fun thing to program, is to program games. I think it's a great way to learn programming,
probably still is. Then, of course, I immediately took it in directions of AI and simulations,
so I was able to express my interest in games and my sort of wider scientific interests altogether.
And then the final thing I think that's great about games is it fuses artistic design, art with the most cutting edge programming. So again, in
the 90s, all of the most interesting technical advances were happening in gaming, whether
that was AI, graphics, physics engines, hardware, even GPUs, of course, were designed for gaming
originally. So everything that was pushing computing forward in the 90s was due to gaming.
So interestingly, that was where the forefront
of research was going on.
And it was this incredible fusion with art,
you know, graphics, but also music,
and just the whole new media of storytelling.
And I love that.
For me, it's this sort of multidisciplinary kind of effort
is again, something I've enjoyed my whole life.
I have to ask you, I almost forgot about one of the many and I would say one of the most
incredible things recently that somehow didn't yet get enough attention is Alpha Evolve.
We talked about evolution a little bit, but it's the Google DeepMind system that evolves
algorithms.
Yeah. Are these kinds of evolution-like techniques
promising as a component of future superintelligence
systems?
So for people who don't know, it's kind of,
I don't know if it's fair to say it's LLM-guided evolution
search.
Yeah.
So evolution algorithms are doing the search,
and LLMs are telling you where.
Yes, exactly.
So LLMs are kind of proposing some some possible solutions and then you use evolutionary computing
on top to find some novel part of the search space. Actually, I think it's an example of
very promising directions where you combine LLMs or foundation models with other computational
techniques. Evolutionary methods is one,
but you could also imagine Monte Carlo tree search.
Basically many types of search algorithms
or reasoning algorithms sort of on top of
or using the foundation models as a basis.
So I actually think there's quite a lot
of interesting things to be discovered probably
with these sort of hybrid systems, let's call them.
But not to romanticize evolution.
Yeah.
I'm only human, but you think there's some value
in whatever that mechanism is?
Because we already talked about natural systems.
Do you think where there's a lot of low-hanging fruit
of us understanding being able to model,
being able to simulate evolution
and then using that whatever we understand about that nature
inspired mechanism to then do surge better and better and better.
Yes.
So if you think about again, breaking down the sort of systems we've built to their really
fundamental core, you've got like the model of the underlying dynamics of the system.
And then if you want to discover something new,
something novel that hasn't been seen before,
then you need some search process on top to take you to
a novel region of the search space.
You can do that in a number of ways.
Evolutionary computing is one.
With AlphaGo, we just use Monte Carlo Tree Search.
That's what found move 37, the new kind of never seen before strategy in Go.
And so that's how you can go beyond potentially what is already known.
So the model can model everything that you currently know about, right?
All the data that you currently have, but then how do you go beyond that?
So that starts to speak about the ideas of creativity.
How can these systems create something new, discover something new.
Obviously, this is super relevant for scientific
discovery or pushing science and medicine forward, which we want
to do with these systems. And you can actually bolt on some
fairly simple search systems on top of these models and get you
into a new region of space. Of course, you also have to make
sure that you're not searching that space totally randomly,
it would be too big.
So you have to have some objective function
that you're trying to optimize and he'll climb towards
and that guides that search.
But there's some mechanism of evolution
that are interesting, maybe in the space of programs,
but then the space of programs
that are extremely important space
because you can probably generalize to everything.
But for example, mutation,
this is not just Monte Carlo tree search
where it's like a search.
You could every once in a while.
Combine things, yeah.
Combine things, like components of a thing.
So then, what evolution is really good at
is not just the natural selection
it's
Combining things and building increasingly complex
Hierarchical systems. Yes, so that component is super interesting. Yeah, especially like with alpha evolve in this basic program
Yeah, exactly. So there's a you can get a bit of an extra property out of evolutionary systems
Which is some new emergent capability may come about. Of course,
like to happen with life. Interestingly, with naive sort of traditional evolutionary computing
methods without LLMs and the modern AI, the problem with them, they were very well studied
in the 90s and early 2000s and some promising results. But the problem was they could never
work out how to evolve new properties, new
emerging properties, you always had a sort of subset of the properties that you put into
the system. But maybe if we combine them with these foundation models, perhaps we can overcome
that limitation. Obviously, natural evolution clearly did, because it did evolve new capabilities,
right? So bacteria to where we are now. So clearly that it must be possible with evolutionary
systems to generate new patterns, you know, going back to the first thing we talked about
and new capabilities and emergent properties. And maybe we're on the cusp of discovering how to do
that. Yeah, listen, F.O.V.A.L. is one of the coolest things I've ever seen. I've, on my desk at home, you know, most of my time is spent behind that computer
is just programming.
And next to the three screens is a skull of a tectalic,
which is one of the early organisms
that crawled out of the water onto land.
And I just kind of watch that little guy.
It's like, whatever the computation mechanism of evolution is,
it's quite incredible.
It's truly, truly incredible.
Now, whether that's exactly the thing we need to do to do our search,
but never dismiss the power of nature with what it did here.
It's amazing, which is a relatively simple algorithm, right, effectively, and it can
generate all of this immense complexity emerges, obviously running over, you know, 4 billion years
of time. But it's, you know, you can think about that as, again, a process, a search process that
ran over the physics substrate of the universe for a long amount of computational time. But then it generated all this incredible rich diversity.
So, so many questions I want to ask you.
So one, you do have a dream.
One of the natural systems you want to try to model is a cell.
That's a beautiful dream.
I could ask you about that.
I also just for that purpose on the AI scientist front,
just broadly.
So there's a essay from Daniel Cocotayo,
Scott Alexander and others
that online steps along the way to get to ASI.
And has a lot of interesting ideas in it.
One of which is including a superhuman coder
and a superhuman AI researcher.
And in that, there's a term of research taste.
That's really interesting.
So in everything you've seen, do you think it's possible for AI systems to
have research taste to help you in the way that AI co-scientists does to help
steer human, human brilliant scientists, and then potentially by itself to figure out what
are the directions where you want to generate truly novel ideas.
Because that seems to be like a really important component of how to do great science.
Yeah, I think that's going to be one of the hardest things to mimic or model is this idea
of taste or judgment. I think that's what separates the
great scientists from the good scientists. All professional scientists are good technically,
otherwise they wouldn't have made it that far in academia and things like that. But then,
do you have the taste to sniff out what the right direction is, what the right experiment is,
what the right question is? Picking the right question is, what the right experiment is, what the right question is.
Picking the right question is the hardest part of science and making the right hypothesis.
That's what today's systems definitely they can't do. I often say it's harder to come
up with a conjecture, a really good conjecture than it is to solve it. We may have systems
soon that can solve pretty hard conjectures.
Maths Olympiad problems, Alpha proof last year, our system got silver medal in that, really hard problems. Maybe eventually we'll better solve a Millennium Prize kind of problem.
But could a system come up with a conjecture worthy of study that someone like Terence
Tau would have gone, you know what, that's a really deep question about the nature of maths or the nature of numbers or the nature
of physics. And that is far harder type of creativity. And we don't really know, today
systems clearly can't do that. And we're not quite sure what that mechanism would be, this
kind of leap of imagination like Einstein had when he came up with, you know, special
relativity and then general relativity with the knowledge he had at the time.
For conjecture, you want to come up with a thing that's interesting, it's amenable to
proof.
Yes.
It's easy to come up with a thing that's extremely difficult.
It's easy to come up with a thing that's extremely easy, but at that very edge-
That sweet spot of basically advancing the science and splitting the hypothesis space
into two ideally, right? Whether if it's true or not true, you've learned something really useful.
And that's hard. And making something that's also falsifiable and within the technologies that you
have, you currently have available.
So it's a very creative process actually, highly creative process that I think just a kind of naive search on top of a model won't be enough for that.
Okay, the idea of splitting the hypothesis space into super interesting.
So I've heard you say that there's basically no failure in, or failure is extremely valuable if it's done,
if you construct the questions right,
if you construct the experiments right,
if you design them right,
that failure or success are both useful.
So perhaps because it splits the hypothesis basically too,
it's like a binary search.
That's right.
So when you do like, you know, real blue sky research,
there's no such thing as failure really,
as long as you're picking experiments and hypotheses that meaningfully spit the hypothesis space. You can learn something
kind of equally valuable from an experiment that doesn't work. That should tell you if
you've designed the experiment well and your hypotheses are interesting, it should tell
you a lot about where to go next. And then you're effectively doing a search process and using that information in very
helpful ways.
So to go to your dream of modeling a cell, what are the big challenges that lay ahead
for us to make that happen?
We should maybe highlight that alpha fold.
I mean, there's just so many leaps
So alpha fold solved if it's fair to say protein folding and there's so many incredible things we could talk about there including the open sourcing
The everything you've released alpha fold 3 is doing protein RNA DNA interactions
Which is super complicated and fascinating this amenable to modeling. Alpha genome
predicts how small genetic changes like if we think about single mutations how they link to actual
function. So those are it seems like it's creeping along. Yes, they're sophisticated to much more complicated
things like a cell but the cell has a lot of
really complicated components. Yeah.
So what I've tried to do throughout my career is I have these really grand dreams, and then I try to, as you've noticed, and then I try to break, but I try to break them down.
You know, it's easy to have a kind of a crazy ambitious dream, but the trick is how do you break
it down into manageable, achievable interim steps that are meaningful and useful in their own right.
Virtual cell, which is what I call the project of modeling a cell, I've had this idea of wanting
to do that for maybe more like 25 years. I used to talk with Paul Nurse, who is a bit of a mentor
of mine in biology. He founded the Crick Institute and won the NOAA Prize in 2001.
the founder of the Crick Institute and won the NOAA prize in 2001. We've been talking about it since before the 90s. I used to come back to every five years, it's like, what would you need to
model the full internals of a cell so that you could do experiments on the virtual cell
and what those experiments in silico and those predictions would be useful for you to save you a
lot of time in the wet lab. That would be useful for you to save you a lot of time
in the wet lab. That would be the dream. Maybe you could 100x speed up experiments by doing most of
it in silico, the search in silico, and then you do the validation step in the wet lab. That's the
dream. But maybe now, finally, so I was trying to build these components, alpha fold being one,
that would allow you eventually
to model the full interaction, a full simulation of a cell.
I'd probably start with the yeast cell, and partly that's what Paul Nair studied, because
the yeast cell is like a full organism that's a single cell.
It's the simplest single cell organism.
It's not just a cell, it's a full organism. Yeast is very well understood. That
would be a good candidate for a full simulated model.
Now, alpha-fold is the solution to the static picture of what does a protein look, 3D structure
of protein look like, a static picture of it. But we know that biology, all the interesting
things happen with the dynamics, the interactions. That that's what alpha-fold-3 is the first
step towards is modeling those interactions. So first of all pairwise,
you know, proteins with proteins, proteins with RNA and DNA, but then the next step
after that would be modeling maybe a whole pathway, maybe like the tour
pathway that's involved in cancer or something like this, and then eventually
you might be able to model, you know know a whole cell. Also there's another complexity here that
stuff in a cell happens at different time scales. Is that tricky? Like there
you know protein folding is you know super fast. Yes. I don't know all the
biological mechanisms but some of them take a long time. Yeah. And so is that
that's a level so the levels of interaction has a different temporal scale
that you have to be able to model.
So that would be hard.
So you'd probably need several simulated systems
that can interact at these different temporal dynamics,
or at least maybe it's like a hierarchical system.
So you can jump up and down the different temporal stages.
So can you avoid, I mean, one of the challenges here
is not avoid
simulating for example the quantum mechanical aspects of any of this right?
You want to not over model, you can skip ahead to just model the really high
level things that get you a really good estimate of what's going to happen. Yes, so you
got to make a decision when you're modeling any natural system what is the
cutoff level of the granularity that you're going to model it to that then captures the
dynamics that you're interested in. So probably for a cell, I would hope that would be the protein
level and that one wouldn't have to go down to the atomic level. So, you know, of course,
that's where alpha fold stock kicks in. So that would be the basis.
Then you'd build these higher level simulations
that take those as building blocks,
and then you get the emergent behavior.
I apologize for the pothead questions ahead of time,
but do you think we'll be able to simulate a model,
the origin of life?
So being able to simulate a model, the origin of life. So being able to simulate the first
from non-living organisms, the birth of a living organism.
I think that's one of the, of course, one of the deepest and most fascinating questions.
I love that area of biology. There's a great book by Nick Lane, one of the top experts
in this area called
The 10 Great Inventions of Evolution.
I think it's fantastic and it also speaks to what
the great filters might be prior or are they ahead of us.
I think they're most likely in the past if you read that book of how
unlikely to go have any life at all and then single cell to multi cell,
seems an unbelievably big jump that took
like a billion years, I think, on Earth to do.
So it shows you how hard it was.
Xteria were super happy for a very long time.
For a very long time before they captured mitochondria somehow.
I don't see why not, why AI couldn't help with that, some kind of simulation.
Again, it's a bit of a search process through a combinatorial space.
Here's all the chemical soup that you start start with the primordial soup that you know
Maybe was on earth near these hot vents. Here's some initial conditions. Can you?
Generate something that looks like a cell. So perhaps that would be a next stage after the virtual cell project is well
How how could you actually?
Something like that emerge from the chemical soup?
Well, I would love it if there was a move 37
for the origin of life.
I think that's one of the sort of great mysteries.
I think ultimately what we will figure out
is their continuum.
There's no such thing as a line
between non-living and living,
but if we can make that rigorous,
that the very thing from the Big Bang to today
has been the same process.
If we can break down that wall that we've constructed
in our minds of the actual origin
of from non-living to living, and it's not a line,
that it's a continuum that connects physics
and chemistry and biology, there's no line.
I mean, this is my whole reason why I've worked on AI
and AGI my whole life, because I think it can be
the ultimate tool to help us answer these kind of questions. I don't really understand why the average person doesn't worry about this
stuff more. How can we not have a good definition of life and not living and nonliving and the
nature of time, let alone consciousness and gravity and all these things? It's just quantum
mechanics weirdness. To
me, I've always had this screaming at me in my face. It's getting louder. It's like,
what is going on here? I mean that in a deeper sense, like in the nature of reality, which
has to be the ultimate question that would answer all of these things. It's crazy if
you think about it. We can stare at each other and all these living things all the time we
can inspect it in microscopes and take it apart almost down to the atomic level
and yet we still can't answer that clearly in a simple way that question of
how do you define living? It's kind of amazing. Yeah. Living you can kind of talk
your way out of thinking about but like consciousness like we have this very obviously subjective conscious experience like we're at the center of our own world and it it feels like something and then
How are you not screaming? Yeah at the mystery of it all well?
I mean, but really humans have been contending with the mystery of the world around them
For a long long. There's a lot of mysteries like what's up with the Sun of the world around them for a long, long, there's a lot of mysteries.
Like what's up with the sun and the rain?
Like what's that about?
And then like last year we had a lot of rain
and this year we don't have rain.
Like what did we do wrong?
Humans have been asking that question for a long time.
So we're quite, I guess we've developed a lot of mechanisms
to cope with this, these deep mysteries
that we can't fully, we can see, but we can't fully understand and we have to just get on with
daily life.
And we keep ourselves busy, right?
In a way, do we keep ourselves distracted?
I mean, weather is one of the most important questions of human history.
We still, that's the go-to small talk direction of the weather.
Especially in England. Yeah.
And then it's, which is, you know, famously is an extremely difficult system to model.
And even that system, Google DeepMind has made progress on.
Yes.
We've created the best weather prediction systems in the world and they're better than
traditional fluid dynamics sort of systems
that usually calculate on massive supercomputers, takes days to calculate it. We've managed
to model a lot of the weather dynamics with neural network systems, with our WeatherNet
system. Again, it's interesting that those kinds of dynamics can be modeled, even though
they're very complicated, almost bordering on chaotic systems in some cases. A lot of the interesting aspects of that can be modeled by these neural network
systems including very recently we had cyclone prediction of where piles of hurricanes might
go of course super useful, super important for the world. And it's super important to
do that very timely and very quickly and as well as accurately. And I think it's a very
promising direction again,
of simulating and so that you can run forward predictions
and simulations of very complicated real world systems.
As you mentioned that I've got a chance in Texas
to meet a community of folks called the Storm Chasers.
Yes.
And what's really incredible about them,
I need to talk to them more,
is they're extremely tech savvy
because what they have to do is they have to use models
to predict where the storm is.
So it's this beautiful mix of crazy enough
to go into the eye of the storm,
and in order to protect your life
and predict where the extreme events are going to be,
they have to have increasingly sophisticated models
of weather.
Yeah, it's a beautiful balance of like being in it as living organisms and the
cutting edge of science.
So they actually might be using a deep mind system.
So that's.
Yeah, they are.
But hopefully they are.
And I love to join them in one of those checks.
They look amazing, right?
To actually experience it one time.
Exactly.
And then also to experience the correct prediction of where something will come
and how it's going to evolve.
It's incredible.
You've estimated that we'll have AGI by 2030.
Um, so there's interesting questions around that.
How will we actually know that we got there?
Uh, and, uh, what may be the move, quote, move 37 of AGI?
My estimate is sort of 50% chance in the next five years,
so, you know, by 2030, let's say.
And so I think there's a good chance that that could happen.
Part of it is what is your definition of AGI?
Of course, people are arguing about that now,
and mine's quite a high bar and always has been of like,
can we match
the cognitive functions that the brain has? Right? So we know our brains are pretty much
general Turing machines, approximate. And of course, we created incredible modern civilization
with our minds. So that also speaks to how general the brain is. And for us to know we have a true
AGI, we would have to like make sure that it has
all those capabilities. It isn't kind of a jagged intelligence where some things it's
really good at like today's systems, but other things it's really flawed at. And that's what
we currently have with today's systems. They're not consistent. So you'd want that consistency
of intelligence across the board. And then we have some missing, I think, capabilities, like sort of the true invention capabilities
and creativity that we were talking about earlier.
So you'd want to see those.
How you test that, I think you just test it.
One way to do it would be kind of brute force test
of tens of thousands of cognitive tasks
that we know that humans can do,
and maybe also make the system available
to a few hundred of the world's top experts,
the Terrence Towers of each subject area,
and see if they can find, you know,
give them a month or two,
and see if they can find an obvious flaw in the system.
And if they can't, then I think you're pretty,
you know, pretty, you can be pretty confident
that we have a fully general system.
Maybe to push back a little bit,
it seems like humans are really incredible
as the intelligence improves across all domains
to take it for granted.
Mm-hmm.
Like you mentioned Terence Tao,
these brilliant experts, they might quickly,
in a span of weeks, take for granted
all the incredible things it can do
and then focus in on, haha, right there.
You know, I consider myself, first of all, human.
Yeah.
Except I identify as human.
Some people listen to me talk and they're like,
that guy's not good at talking, the stuttering, the...
So even humans have obvious across domains, limits, even just outside of
mathematics and physics and so on.
It, I, I wonder if it will take something like a move 37.
So on the positive side versus like a barrage of 10,000 cognitive tasks
where it would be one or two where it's like,
yes, holy shit, this is special.
Exactly, so I think there's the sort of blanket testing
to just make sure you've got the consistency,
but I think there are the sort of lighthouse moments
like the move 37 that I would be looking for.
So one would be inventing a new conjecture
or a new hypothesis about physics
like Einstein did. Maybe you could even run the back test of that very rigorously. Have
a cutoff of knowledge, cutoff of 1900, and then give the system everything that was written
up to 1900 and then see if it could come up with special relativity and general relativity
like Einstein did. That would be an interesting test. Another one would be, can it invent a game like Go?
Not just come up with move 37, a new strategy, but can it invent a game that's as deep, as
aesthetically beautiful, as elegant as Go? Those are the sorts of things I would be looking
out for and probably a system being able to do several of those things, right, for it to be very general, not just one domain.
And so I think that would be the signs,
at least that I would be looking for,
that we've got a system that's AGI level.
And then maybe to fill that out,
you would also check their consistency,
make sure there's no holes in that system either.
Yeah, something like a new conjecture or a scientific discovery.
That would be a cool feeling. Yeah, that would be amazing.
So it's not, not just helping us do that, but actually coming up with something
brand new and you would be in the room for that.
And so it would be like probably two or three months before announcing it.
And you would just be sitting there trying not to tweet like that.
Exactly.
It's like, what is this amazing new physics idea?
Then we would probably check it with world experts in that domain,
and validate it and go through its workings.
I guess it would be explaining its workings too.
Yeah, it'd be an amazing moment.
Do you worry that we as humans,
even expert humans like you might miss it?
Well, it may be pretty complicated.
So it could be the analogy I give there is I don't think it will
be totally mysterious to the best human scientists,
but it may be a bit like, for example, in chess,
if I was to talk to Gary Kasparov or Magnus Carlsen
and play a game with them and they make a brilliant move,
I might not be able to come up with that move,
but they could explain why afterwards that move made sense.
And we were better understand it to some degree,
not to the level they do,
but if they were good at explaining,
which is actually part of intelligence too,
is being able to explain in a simple way
that what you're thinking about.
I think that that will be very possible
for the best human scientists.
But I wonder, maybe you can educate me on the side of Go,
I wonder if there's moves for Magnus or Gary
where they at first will dismiss it as a bad move.
Yeah, sure, there could be,
but then afterwards they'll figure out
with their intuition that this, why this works,
and then empirically, the nice thing about games is, one of great things about games is it's a sort of scientific test. Do you
win the game or not win? And then that tells you, okay, that move in the end was good.
That strategy was good. And then you can go back and analyze that and explain even to
yourself a little bit more why explore around it. And that's how chess analysis and things like that work.
So perhaps that's why my brain works like that
because I've been doing that since I was four
and you're trained, you know,
sort of hardcore training in that way.
But even now, like when I generate code,
there is this kind of nuanced, fascinating contention
that's happening where I might have first identify as a set of generated code
as incorrect in some interesting, nuanced ways.
But then I'm always have to ask the question,
is there a deeper insight here
that I'm the one who's incorrect?
And that's going to, as the systems get more
and more intelligent, you're gonna have to contend with that.
It's like, what, what, what do you, is this a bug or a feature
where you just came up with?
Yeah, and they're going to be pretty complicated to do. But of course it will
be, you can imagine also AI systems that are producing that code or whatever that
is. And then human program is looking at, but also not unaided with the help of AI
tools as well. So it's going to be kind of an interesting, you know, maybe
different AI tools to the ones that they're more, you know, kind of monitoring tools to the. So it's gonna be kind of an interesting, maybe different AI tools to the ones
that they're more, kind of monitoring tools
to the ones that generated it.
So if we look at that AGI system,
sorry to bring it back up, but Alpha Evolve, super cool.
So Alpha Evolve enables on the programming side,
something like recursive self-improvement potentially.
Like what, if you can imagine what that AGI system, something like recursive self-improvement potentially.
What, if you can imagine, with that AGI system,
maybe not the first version,
but a few versions beyond that,
what does that actually look like?
Do you think it will be simple?
You think it will be something like a self-improving program
and a simple one?
I mean, potentially that's possible, I would say.
I'm not sure it's even desirable
because that's a kind of like hard takeoff scenario.
But these current systems like Alpha Evolve, they have human in the loop deciding on various
things, they're separate hybrid systems that interact.
One could imagine eventually doing that end to end.
I don't see why that wouldn't be possible.
But right now, I think the systems are not good enough to do that in terms of coming up
with the architecture of the code.
And again, it's a little bit reconnected
to this idea of coming up with a new conjectural hypothesis.
They're good if you give them very specific instructions
about what you're trying to do.
But if you give them a very vague, high-level instruction,
that wouldn't work currently.
And I think that's related to this idea of invent a game as good as go.
Imagine that was the prompt.
That's pretty under-specified.
The current systems wouldn't know, I think,
what to do with that, how to narrow that down to something tractable.
I think there's similar, like, look,
just make a better version of yourself.
That's too unconstrained.
But we've done it in,
as you know, with Alpha Evolved, like things like faster matrix multiplication.
So when you hone it down to a very specific thing you want, it's very good at incrementally
improving that.
But at the moment, these are more like incremental improvements, sort of small iterations.
Whereas if you wanted a big leap in understanding, you'd need a much larger advance.
Yeah, but it could also be sort of
the push back against hard takeoff scenario.
It could be just a sequence of incremental improvements,
like matrix multiplication.
It has to sit there for days
thinking how to incrementally improve a thing.
And it does so recursively. as you do more and more improvement,
you'll slow down.
Right. There'll be like a like the path to AGI won't be like a
it'll be a gradual improvement over time.
If it was just incremental improvements, that's how it would look.
So the question is, could it come up with a new leap
like the Transformers architecture?
But could it have done that back in 2017 when, you know, we did it and brain did it and it's it's not clear that
These systems something I alpha vol wouldn't be able to do make such a big leap
So for sure these systems are good
We have systems I think that can do incremental heel climbing and that's a kind of bigger question about is that all that's needed from here?
Or do we actually need one or two more big breakthroughs?
And can the same kind of systems provide the breakthroughs also, so make it a bunch of
S-curves like incremental improvement but also every once in a while leaps?
Yeah, I don't think anyone has systems that can have shown unequivocally those big leaps,
right? We have a lot of systems that do the hill climbing ofivocally those big leaps that right.
We have a lot of systems that do the hill climbing of the S curve that you're currently
on.
Yeah.
And that would be the move 37 is a yeah, I think would be a leap.
Something like that.
Do you think the scaling laws are holding strong on the pre training post training test
time compute?
Do you on the flip side of, anticipate AI progress hitting a wall?
We certainly feel there's a lot more room
just in the scaling.
So actually all steps, pre-training, post-training,
and inference time.
So there's sort of three scalings
that are happening concurrently.
And again there, it's about how innovative you can be.
And we pride ourselves on having the broadest and deepest research bench.
We have amazing, incredible researchers and people like Noam Shazir who came up with Transformers and Dave Silver,
who led the AlphaGo project and so on. And it's it's it's that research base
means that if some new new breakthrough is required, like
an AlphaGo or transformers, I would back us to be the place
that does that. So I'm actually quite like it when the terrain
gets harder, right, because then it veers more from just
engineering to to true research and, you know, research plus
engineering. And that's our sweet spot. I think that's harder.
It's harder to invent things than to fast follow. I would say it's kind of 50-50 whether new things
are needed or whether the scaling the existing stuff is going to be enough. In true kind of
empirical fashion, we're pushing both of those as hard as possible.
The new blue sky ideas, and maybe about half our resources
are on that, and then scaling to the max
the current capabilities.
And we're still seeing some fantastic progress
on each different version of Gemini.
That's interesting the way you put it
in terms of the deep bench that if progress towards
AGI is more than just scaling compute, so the engineering side of the problem, and is
more on the scientific side where there's breakthroughs needed, then you feel confident
DeepMind as well, Google DeepMind is well positioned to kick ass in that domain. Well I mean if you look at the history
of the last decade or 15 years, it's been I mean maybe I don't know 80-90% of
the breakthroughs that underpins modern AI field today was from you know
originally Google Brain, Google Research and DeepMind. So yeah I would back that
to continue hopefully. So on the data data side are you concerned about running out of high quality data, especially high quality human data?
I'm not very worried about that partly because I think there's enough data
or and it's been proven to get the systems to be pretty good and
This goes back to simulations again
If you have do you have enough data to make simulations or so that you can create more
synthetic data that are from the right distribution?
Obviously, that's the key.
So you need enough real world data in order to be able to create those kinds of generators,
data generators.
And I think that we're at that step at the moment.
Yeah, you've done a lot of current stuff on the side of science and biology, doing a lot
with not so much data.
Yeah.
I mean, it's still a lot of data,
but I guess enough take off.
To get that going, exactly.
Yeah. Exactly.
How crucial is the scaling of compute to building AGI?
This is a question that's an engineering question.
It's a almost a geopolitical question
because it also integrated into that is supply chains and
energy.
Yes.
A thing that you care a lot about, which is potentially fusion, so innovating on the side
of energy also.
Yeah.
Do you think we're going to keep scaling compute?
I think so, for several reasons.
I think compute, there's the amount of compute you have for training.
Often it needs to be co-located.
So actually even like, you know, bandwidth constraints between data centers
can affect that. So it's it's it's there's additional
constraints even there. And that that's important for training,
obviously, the largest models you can. But there's also
because now AI systems are in products and being used by
billions of people around the world, you need a ton of
inference compute now. And then on top of that, there's the thinking systems, the new paradigm of the last year
where they get smarter the longer amount of inference time you give them at test time.
So all of those things need a lot of compute.
And I don't really see that slowing down.
And as AI systems become better, they'll become more useful and there'll be more demand
for them.
So both from the training side,
the training side actually is only just one part of that,
may even become the smaller part of what's needed
in the overall compute that's required.
Yeah, that's one sort of almost meme-y kind of thing,
which is like the success and the incredible aspects
of Vl3.
People kind of make fun of it.
Like the more successful it becomes,
you know, the servers are sweating.
Yes, exactly.
To do the inference.
Yeah, yeah, exactly.
We did a little video of the servers frying eggs and things.
And that's right.
And we're gonna have to figure out how to do that.
There's a lot of interesting hardware innovations
that we do as you know, we have our own TPU line
and we're looking at like-only things, inference-only
chips and how we can make those more efficient.
We're also very interested in building AI systems and we have done help with energy
usage.
Help data center energy for the cooling systems be efficient, grid optimization, and then
eventually things like helping with plasma containment fusion
reactors. We've done lots of work on that with Commonwealth Fusion, and also one could imagine
reactor design. And then material design, I think, is one of the most exciting new types of solar
material, solar panel material, super room temperature superconductors has always been on
my list of dream breakthroughs and optimal batteries.
And I think a solution to any one of those things
would be absolutely revolutionary
for climate and energy usage.
And we're probably close, again, in the next five years
to having AI systems that can materially help
with those problems.
If you were to bet, sorry for the ridiculous question,
what is the main source of energy in like 20, 30, 40 years?
Do you think it's going to be nuclear fusion?
I think fusion and solar are the two that I would bet on. Solar, I mean, you know,
it's the fusion reactor in the sky, of course. And I think really the problem there is batteries
and transmission. So, you know, as well as more efficient, well as more efficient solar material, perhaps eventually
in space, these Dyson Sphere type ideas. Fusion, I think, is definitely doable, it seems,
if we have the right design of reactor and we can control the plasma and fast enough and so on.
I think both of those things will actually get solved. So we'll probably have at least those are probably the two primary sources of renewable, clean, almost free,
or perhaps free energy. What a time to be alive. If I traveled into the future with you
100 years from now, how much would you be surprised if we've passed a type one Kardashev scale civilization?
I would not be that surprised if there's a like a hundred year time scale from
here. I mean, I think it's pretty clear if we crack the energy problems in one of
the ways we've just discussed fusion or, or very efficient solar, then if energy
is kind of free and renewable and clean, then that solves a whole bunch of other problems.
So for example, the water access problem goes away because you can just use desalination.
We have the technology, it's just too expensive. So only fairly wealthy countries like Singapore
and Israel and so on actually use it. But if it was cheap, then all countries that have
a coast could. But also you'd have unlimited rocket fuel. You could just separate seawater out into hydrogen and oxygen using energy and
that's rocket fuel. So combined with Elon's amazing self-landing rockets, then it could
be like a bus service to space. So that opens up incredible new resources and domains. Asteroid mining, I think, will become a thing,
and maximum human flourishing to the stars.
That's what I dream about as well,
is like Carl Sagan's sort of idea
of bringing consciousness to the universe,
waking up the universe.
And I think human civilization will do that
in the full sense of time if we get AI right
and crack some of these problems with it.
Yeah, I wonder what it would look like
if you're just a tourist flying through space.
You would probably notice Earth,
because if you solve the energy problem,
you would see a lot of space rockets probably.
So it would be like traffic here in London, but in space.
Yes, exactly.
It's just a lot of rockets.
Yes.
And then you would probably see floating in space some kind of
source of energy like solar potentially.
So Earth would just look more on the surface, more technological.
And then you would use the power of that energy then to preserve the natural, like the rainforest
and all that kind of stuff.
Exactly, because for the first time in human history, we wouldn't be resource constrained.
And I think that could be an amazing new era for humanity where it's not zero-sum, right?
I have this land, you don't have it.
Or if we take, you know, if the tigers have their forest, then the local villages can't,
what are they going to use?
I think that this will help a lot.
No, it won't solve all problems, because
there's still other human foibles that will still exist,
but it will at least remove one, I think one of the big vectors,
which is scarcity of resources, you know, including land and
more materials and energy. And we know we should be, as I'm
just calling like and others call about this kind of radical
abundance era where
There's plenty of resources to go around. Of course. The next big question is making sure that that's fairly, you know shared fairly
And everyone in society benefits from that. So there is something about human nature where I go, you know
It's like borat like my neighbor like I like you start trouble
We we do start conflicts and that's why games throughout
as I'm learning actually more and more, even in ancient history serve the purpose
of pushing people away from war, actually a hot war.
So maybe we can figure out
increasingly sophisticated video games that pull us,
they give us that,
that scratch the itch of like conflict, whatever that is about us, the human nature,
and then avoid the actual hot wars
that would come with increasingly sophisticated technologies
because we're now long past the stage
where the weapons we're able to create
can actually just destroy all of human civilization.
So it's no longer.
That's no longer a great way to start shit with your neighbor.
It's better to play a game of chess or football.
Oh, yeah. Yeah.
And I think I mean, I think that's what my modern sport is.
So and I love football watching it.
And I just feel like and I used to play it a lot as well.
It's very visceral in its tribal.
I think it does channel a lot of those energies into, which I think is a human need to belong
to some group, but into a fun way, a healthy way, and a not destructive way, constructive thing.
I think going back to games again is,
I think originally why they're so great as well for kids to play,
things like chess is they're great
little microcosm simulations of the world.
They are simulations of the world too.
They're simplified versions of some real-world situation,
whether it's poker or Go or chess,
different aspects or diplomacy,
different aspects of
the real world. It allows you to practice at them too. How many times do you get to
practice a massive decision moment in your life? What job to take? What university to
go to? You get maybe, I don't know, a dozen or so key decisions one has to make, and you've
got to make those as best as you can. Games is a kind of safe environment, repeatable environment where you can get better at your decision
making process. It maybe has this additional benefit of channeling some energies into more
creative and constructive pursuits.
Well, I think it's also really important to practice losing and winning. Right. Like losing is a really, you know, that's why I love games.
That's why I love even things like Brazilian Jiu Jitsu.
Where you can get your ass kicked
in a safe environment over and over.
It reminds you about the way, about physics,
about the way the world works,
about sometimes you lose, sometimes you win.
You can still be friends with everybody.
But that feeling of losing, I mean, it's a weird one for us humans to like, really like make sense of.
Like, that's just part of life. That is a fundamental part of life is losing.
Yeah. And I think in martial arts, as I understand it, but also in things like light chess,
at least the way I took it, it's a lot to do with self-improvement, self-knowledge, you know, that,
okay, so I did this thing. It's not about really being the other person. It's
about maximizing your own potential. If you do it in a healthy way, you learn to use victory
and losses in a way. Don't get carried away with victory and think you're just the best
in the world. The losses keep you humble and always knowing there's always something more
to learn. There's always a bigger expert that you can mentor you. I think you learn that, I'm pretty sure in martial arts.
I think that's also the way that at least I was trained in chess. So in the same way,
and it can be very hardcore and very important. Of course, you want to win, but you also need to
learn how to deal with setbacks in a healthy way. And why are that feeling that you have
when you lose something into a constructive thing
of next time I'm gonna improve this, right?
Or get better at this.
There is something that's a source of happiness,
a source of meaning that improvements that.
It's not about the winning or losing.
Yeah, it's the mastery.
There's nothing more satisfying in a way.
It's like, oh wow, this thing I couldn't do before,
now I can.
And again, games and physical sports and mental sports, they're
what their ways of measuring they're beautiful because you can measure that,
that progress.
Yeah.
I mean, there's something about, I guess why I love role playing games.
Like the, uh, number go up of like, on the skill tree, like literally that is
a source of meaning for us humans, whatever our,
Yeah, we're quite, we're quite addicted to this sort of yeah
these numbers going up and
And and maybe that's why we made games like that because obviously that is something we're we're hill climbing
Systems ourselves, right? Yeah, it would be quite sad if we didn't have any mechanism by color belt
We do this everywhere right where we just have this thing that that's great. I don't want to dismiss that.
That is a source of deep meaning for us humans.
So one of the incredible stories on the business,
on the leadership side is what Google has done
over the past year.
So I think it's fair to say that Google was losing
on the LLM product side a year ago with Gemini 1.5,
and now it's winning with
Gemini 2-5 and you took the helm and you led this effort.
What did it take to go from, let's say, quote unquote losing to quote unquote winning in
the span of a year?
Yeah, well, firstly, it's absolutely incredible team that we have, you know, led by Corre and
Jeff Dean and Oriol and the amazing team we have on Gemini,
absolutely world-class.
So you can't do it without the best talent.
Um, and of course you have, you know, we have a lot of great computers as well,
but then it's the research culture we've created, right? And basically coming together both different groups in, in Google, you know,
there was Google brain world-class team and, and then the old deep mind, and pulling together all
the best people and the best ideas, and gathering around to
make the absolute greatest system we could. And it was
been hard. But we're all very competitive. And we, you know,
love research, this is so fun to do. And we, you know, it's
great to see our trajectory wasn't a given, but we're
very pleased with where we are and the rate of progress is the most important thing.
If you look at where we've come from two years ago to one year ago to now, I think we call
it relentless progress along with relentless shipping of that progress is being very successful. It's unbelievably competitive, the whole space,
the whole AI space with some of the greatest entrepreneurs and leaders and companies in the
world all competing now because everyone's realized how important AI is. It's been pleasing for us to
see that progress. Google is a gigantic company. Can you speak to the natural things that happen in that case,
is the bureaucracy that emerges?
Like, you want to be careful?
Like, you know, like, the natural kind of,
there's meetings and there's managers and that.
Like, what are some of the challenges
from a leadership perspective, breaking through that
in order to, like you said, ship?
Like, the number of products,
Gemini-related products has been
shipped over the past years, it's insane.
Right. It is. Yeah, exactly.
That's what relentlessness looks like.
I think it's a question of like any big company
ends up having a lot of layers
of management and things like that,
it's the nature of how it works.
But I still operate and I was always operating with
old DeepMind as a startup still,
large one, but still as a startup.
That's what we still act like today with Google DeepMind.
Acting with decisiveness and the energy that you get from the best smaller organizations.
We try to get the best of both worlds where we have
this incredible billions of users,
surfaces, incredible products that we can power up with our AI and our research.
And that's amazing.
And you can, you know, that's very few places in the world you can get that, do incredible
world-class research on the one hand, and then plug it in and improve billions of people's
lives the next day.
That's a pretty amazing combination. And we're continually
fighting and cutting away bureaucracy to allow the research culture and the relentless shipping
culture to flourish. And I think we've got a pretty good balance whilst being responsible with it,
you know, as you have to be as a large company and also with a number of, you know, huge product
surfaces that we have. So a funny thing you mentioned about
like the surface of the billion,
I had a conversation with a guy named Brilliant Guy
here at the British Museum called Irvin Finkel.
He's a world expert at Kineiforms,
which is a ancient writing on tablets.
And he doesn't know about Chad GBbt or gemini he doesn't even know
anybody i but his first encounter with this ai is ai mode on google yes he's
like is that what you're talking about this ai mode and you know it's just it's
just a reminder that there's a large part of the world that doesn't know about
this ai thing yeah i know it's funny because if you live on X and Twitter,
and I mean, it's sort of at least my feed, it's all AI.
There's certain places where in the valley and
certain pockets where everyone's just all they're thinking about is AI.
But a lot of the normal world hasn't come across it yet.
But that's a great responsibility to their first interaction.
Yeah.
The grand scale of the rural India or anywhere across the world.
Right. And we want it to be as good as possible. And in a lot of cases, it's just under the hood,
powering, making something like Maps or Search work better. And ideally, for a lot of those
people should just be seamless. It's just new technology that makes their lives more productive
and helps them. A bunch of folks on the Gemini product and engineering teams
spoken extremely highly of you on
another dimension that I almost didn't even expect.
Because I think of you as
the deep scientists and caring about these big research scientific questions.
But they also said you're a great product guy.
Like how to create a thing that a lot of people would use and enjoy using.
So can you maybe speak to what it takes
to create an AI-based product
that a lot of people enjoy using?
Yeah, well, I mean, again, that comes back
from my game design days where I used to design games
for millions of gamers.
People would forget about that.
I've had experience with cutting-edge technology in product.
That is how games was in the 90s.
And so I love actually the combination
of cutting edge research and then being applied in a product
and to power a new experience.
And so I think it's the same skill really
of imagining what it will be like to use it viscerally
and having good taste coming back to earlier.
The same thing that's useful in science,
I think can also be useful in product design.
And I've just had a very, you know,
always been a sort of multidisciplinary person.
So I don't see the boundaries really between,
you know, arts and sciences or product and research.
It's a continuum for me.
I mean, I only work on,
I like working on products that are cutting edge.
I wouldn't be able to have cutting edge technology
under the hood.
I wouldn't be excited about them
if they were just run-of-the-mill products.
So it requires this invention creativity capability.
What are some specific things you kind of learned
about when you, even on the LLM side,
you're interacting with Gemini.
You're like, this doesn't feel like the layout,
the interface, maybe the trade off between the latency,
like how to present to the user, how long to wait,
and how that waiting is shown, or the reason capabilities.
There's some interesting things,
because like you said, it's a very cutting edge.
We don't know how to present it correctly. So is there some specific things? Cause like you said, it's a very cutting edge. We don't know how to present it, how to present it correctly.
So is there some specific things you've learned?
I mean, it's such a fast evolving space.
We're evaluating this all the time,
but where we are today is that you want to
continually simplify things.
Whether that's the interface or the inter,
what you build on top of the model.
You kind of want to get out of the way of the model.
The model train is coming down the track and it's improving unbelievably fast.
This relentless progress we talked about earlier, you know, you look at 2.5 versus 1.5 and it's
just a gigantic improvement.
And we expect that again for the future versions.
And so the models are becoming more capable.
So you've got the interesting thing about the design space in today's world, these AI
first products is you've got to design not for what the thing can do today, the technology can do today, but in a year's time.
So you actually have to be a very technical product person, because you've got to kind of have a good intuition for and feel for, okay, that thing that I'm dreaming about now can't be done today, but is the research track on schedule to basically intercept that in six months or a year's time? So you kind of got to intercept where this highly changing technologies going, as well as the new capabilities are coming online all the time that you didn't realize before that can allow like deep research to work, or now we got video generation, what do we do with that? This multimodal stuff,
one question I have is,
is it really going to be
the current UI that we have today,
these text box chats?
Seems very unlikely once you think about
these super multimodal systems.
Shouldn't it be something more like
Minority Report where you're
sort of vibing with it in
a kind of collaborative way.
It seems very restricted today.
I think we'll look back on today's interfaces
and products and systems as quite archaic
in maybe in just a couple of years.
So I think there's a lot of space actually
for innovation to happen on the product side
as well as the research side.
And then we're offline talking about this keyboard
is the open question is how, when,
and how much will we move to audio
as the primary way of interacting
with the machines around us versus typing stuff?
Yeah, I mean, typing is a very low bandwidth way of doing it,
even if you're a very fast typer.
And I think we're gonna have to start utilizing other devices,
whether that's smart glasses,
audio, earbuds, and eventually maybe some
sorts of neural devices where we can increase the input
and the output bandwidth to something maybe 100x of what
is today.
I think that underappreciated art form
is the interface design.
I think you can not unlock the power of the intelligence of a system if you don't have the interface design. But I think you can not unlock
the power of the intelligence of
a system if you don't have the right interface.
The interface is really the way you unlock its power.
Yeah.
It's such an interesting question of how to do that.
Yeah.
So how you would think
like getting out of the way is in real art form.
Yes. It's the sort of thing that I guess
Steve Jobs always talked about, right?
It's simplicity, beauty, and elegance that we want, right? And we're not there, nobody's
there yet, in my opinion. And that's what I would like us to get to. Again, it sort of speaks to like
go again, right, as a game, the most elegant, beautiful game. Can you, you know, can you make
an interface as beautiful as that? And actually, I think we're going to enter an era of AI generated
interfaces that are probably personalized
to you so it fits the way that you, your aesthetic,
your feel, the way that your brain works.
And the AI kind of generates that depending on the task,
you know, that feels like that's probably
the direction we'll end up in.
Yeah, because some people are power users
and they want every single parameter on screen,
everything based, like perhaps me with a keyboard
Keyboard based navigation and like to have shortcuts for everything and some people like the minimalism just to hide all of that complexity
Yeah, exactly. Yeah
Well, I'm glad you have a Steve Jobs mode in you as well. This is great Einstein most Steve Jobs mode
All right. Let me try to trick you into answering a question. When will Gemini 3 come out?
Is it before or after DTS6?
The world waits for both.
And what does it take to go from 2.5 to 3.0?
Because it seems like there's been a lot of releases of 2.5,
which are already leaps in performance.
So what does it even mean to go to a new version?
Is it about performance?
Is it about a completely different flavor of an experience?
Yeah. Well, so the way it works with our different version numbers is we try to collect, so maybe
it takes roughly six months or something to do a new kind of full run and the full productization of a new version.
During that time, lots of new interesting research iterations and ideas come up.
We collect them all together.
You could imagine the last six months worth of
interesting ideas on the architecture front.
Maybe it's on the data front,
it's like many different possible things.
We collect, package that all up, test which ones are likely to be useful for the next front, it's like many different possible things. We collect, package that all up,
test which ones are likely to be useful for
the next iteration and then bundle that all together.
Then we start the new giant hero training run.
Then of course that gets monitored.
Then at the end of the pre-training,
then there's all the post-training,
there's many different ways of doing that,
different ways of patching it.
There's a whole experiment and phase there, which you can
also get a lot of gains out. And that's where you see the version
numbers usually referring to the base model, the pre-trained
model, and then the interim versions of 2.5, you know, and
the different sizes and the different little additions,
they're often patches or post-training ideas that can be
done afterwards, off the same basic architecture.
And then of course, on top of that,
we also have different sizes, Pro and Flash and Flashlight,
that are often distilled from the biggest ones,
you know, the Flash model from the Pro model.
And that means we have a range of different choices
if you are the developer of,
do you wanna prioritize performance or speed, right, and
cost.
And we like to think of this Pareto frontier of, you know, on the one hand, the y-axis
is, you know, like performance, and then the x-axis is, you know, cost or latency and speed,
basically.
And we have models that completely define the frontier.
So whatever your trade-off is that you want as an individual user or as a developer,
you should find one of our models satisfies that constraint.
So behind diversion changes, there is a big hero run.
Yes.
And then there's just an insane complexity
of productization.
Then there's the distillation of the different sizes
along that parade or front.
And then as each step you take,
you realize there might be a cool product,
there's side quests.
Yes, exactly.
But then you also don't wanna take too many side quests
because then you have a million versions
of a million products.
Yes, precisely.
It's very unclear.
Yeah.
But you also get super excited
because it's super cool.
Yeah.
Like how does even you look at Veo's very cool.
How does it fit into the bigger thing?
Yes, exactly.
Exactly.
And then you're constantly this process of converging upstream, we call that, you know,
ideas from the product surfaces or from the post-training and even further downstream
than that, you kind of upstream that into the core model training
for the next run.
So then the main model, the main Gemini track
becomes more and more general.
And eventually, you know, AGI.
One hero run at a time.
Yes, exactly.
A few hero runs later.
Yeah, so sometimes when you release these new versions,
or every version really,
are benchmarks productive or counterproductive
for showing the performance of a model?
You need them, and I bet it's
important that you don't overfit to them.
They shouldn't be the end with a be all and end all.
There's LM Arena or it used to be called Alemsys,
that turned out organically to be one of
the main ways people like to test these systems,
at least the chatbots. Obviously, there's loads of academic benchmarks on from the test
mathematics and coding ability, general language ability, science ability, and so on. And then
we have our own internal benchmarks that we care about. It's a kind of multi objective,
you know, optimization problem, right? You don't want to be good at just one thing. We're trying to build
general systems that are good across the board. And you try and make no regret improvements.
So where you improve in coding, but it doesn't reduce your performance in other areas. So
that's the hard part because you can, of course, you could put more coding data in or you could put more gaming data in, but
then does it make worse your language system or in your translation systems and other things
that you care about?
You've got to continually monitor this increasingly larger and larger suite of benchmarks.
When you stick them into products, these models, you also care about the direct usage
and the direct stats and the signals that you're getting
from the end users, whether they're coders
or the average person using the chat interfaces.
Yeah, because ultimately you wanna measure the usefulness,
but it's so hard to convert that into a number.
It's really vibe-based benchmarks
across a large number of users, and it's hard to know.
And it will be just terrifying to me to, you know, you have a much smarter model,
but it's just something vibe based.
It's not, not, not quite working.
That's such a scary cause and everything you just said, it has to be smart and
useful across so many domains.
So you, you get super excited because it's all of a sudden
solving programming problems that never been able to solve before.
But now it's crappy poetry or something.
And it's just, I don't know, that's a stressful,
that's so difficult to balance.
And because you can't really trust the benchmarks,
you really have to trust the end users.
Yeah. And then other things that even even more esoteric come into play like the style
of the persona of the system, how it, is it verbose, is it succinct, is it humorous, and
different people like different things. So it's very interesting. It's almost like cutting
edge part of psychology research or personality research.
I used to do that in my PhD, like five factor personality.
What do we actually want our assistants to be like?
And different people will like different things as well.
So these are all just sort of new problems in product space
that I don't think have ever really been tackled before,
but we're gonna sort of rapidly have to deal with now.
I think it's a super fascinating space,
developing the character of the thing.
And in so doing, it puts a mirror to ourselves,
what are the kind of things that we like?
Because prompt engineering allows you
to control a lot of those elements,
but can the product make it easier for you
to control the different flavors of those experiences,
the different characters that you interact with.
Yeah, exactly.
So what's the probability of Google DeepMind winning?
Well, I don't see it as sort of winning.
I mean, I think we need to,
think winning is the wrong way to look at it,
given how important and consequential
what it is we're building.
So, funnily enough, I don't,
I try not to view it like a game or a competition,
even though that's a lot of my mindset.
It's about, of my mindset.
It's about, in my view, all of us, those of us at the leading edge, have a responsibility
to steward this unbelievable technology that could be used for incredible good, but also
has risks, steward it safely into the world for the benefit of humanity.
That's always what I've dreamed about and what we've always tried to do.
And I hope that's what eventually the community, maybe the international community, will rally
around when it becomes obvious that as we get closer and closer to AGI, that that's
what's needed.
I agree with you.
I think that's beautifully put.
You've said that you talk to and are on good terms with the leads of some of these labs.
As the competition heats up, how hard is it to maintain those relationships?
It's been okay so far.
I tried to pride myself in being collaborative.
I'm a collaborative person.
Research is a collaborative endeavor.
Science is a collaborative endeavor.
It's all good for humanity.
In the end, if you cure terrible diseases and you come up with an incredible cure. This is
net win for humanity. And the same with energy, all of the things that I mentioned in helping solve
with AI. So I just want that technology to exist in the world and be used for the right things.
And the kind of the benefits of that, the productivity benefits of that being shared for the benefit of everyone.
So I try to maintain good relations with all the leading lab people.
They have very interesting characters,
many of them as you might expect.
But yeah, I'm on good terms,
I hope with pretty much all of them.
I think that's going to be important when
things get even more serious than they are now.
There are those communication channels
and that's what will facilitate cooperation
or collaboration if that's what is required,
especially on things like safety.
Yeah, I hope there's some collaboration on stuff
that's sort of less high stakes
and in so doing serves as a mechanism
for maintaining friendships and relationships.
So for example, I think the internet would love it if you and Elon somehow collaborate
on creating a video game, that kind of thing.
Right.
That I think that enables camaraderie in good terms and also you two are legit gamers.
So it's just fun to.
Yeah.
Fun to create something.
Yeah, that would be awesome. And we've talked about that in the past and it may be a cool
thing that, you know, we can do. And I agree with you, it'd be nice to have side projects in a way where one can just lean
into the collaboration aspect of it and it's a win-win for both sides and it builds up
that collaborative muscle.
I see the scientific endeavor as that side project for humanity.
Yeah.
I think Google DeepMind has been really pushing that.
I would love to see other labs do more scientific stuff
and then collaborate, because it just seems like easier
to collaborate on the big scientific questions.
I agree, and I would love to see a lot of people,
a lot of the other labs talk about science,
but I think we're really the only ones using it for science
and doing that, and that's why projects like AlphaFold
are so important to me, And I think to our mission is to show how AI can be clearly used
in a very concrete way for the benefit of humanity. And also we spun out companies like
Isomorphic off the back of Alpha Fold to do drug discovery. And it's going really well
and build sort of, you know, you can think of build additional alpha fold type type systems to go into chemistry space to help accelerate drug
design and the examples I think we need to show and society needs to understand
a well AI can bring these huge benefits. Well from the bottom of my heart thank
you for pushing the scientific efforts forward with rigor with fun with
humility all of it I just love to see. And still talking about P equals NPM.
It's just incredible.
So I love it.
Um, there, there's been, uh, seemingly a war for talent.
Some of it is meme.
I don't know.
Um, what do you think about meta buying up talent with huge salaries and, and
the heating up of this battle for talent?
And I should say that I think a lot of people see
DeepMind as a really great place to do cutting edge work
for the reasons that you've outlined,
is like there's this vibrant scientific culture.
Yeah, well look, of course, you know,
there's a strategy that Metta is taking right now.
I think that from my perspective, at least,
I think the people that are real believers
in the mission of AGI and what it can do and understand the real consequences, both good
and bad from that and what that responsibility entails, I think they're mostly doing it to
be like myself, to be on the frontier of that research.
So they can help influence the way that goes and steward that technology safely into the
world.
And Meta right now are not at the frontier.
Maybe they'll manage to get back on there.
And you know, it's probably rational what they're doing from their perspective because
they're behind and they need to do something.
But I think there's more important things than just money.
Of course, one has to pay, you know, people their market rates and all of these things
and that continues to go up.
And I was expecting this because more and more people are finally
realizing, leaders of companies, what I've always known for 30 plus years
now, which is that AGI is the most important technology probably that's
ever going to be invented.
So in some senses it's rational to be doing that.
But I also think there's a much bigger question.
I mean, people in AI these days are
very well paid. I remember when we were starting out back in 2010, I didn't even pay myself a
couple of years because there was enough money. We couldn't raise any money. And these days,
interns are being paid the amount that we raised as our first entire C round. So it's pretty funny.
And I remember the days where I used to have to work for free and almost pay my own way to do an internship right now it's all the other way around but that's just how it is it's
the new world and um but I think that you know we've been discussing like what happens post AGI and
energy systems are solved and so on what is even money going to mean so I think uh you know in the
economy and and we're gonna have much bigger issues to work through and how does the economy function
in that world and companies.
So I think it's a little bit of a side issue
about salaries and things of like that today.
Yeah, when you're facing such gigantic consequences
and gigantic fascinating scientific questions.
Which may be only a few years away.
So on the practicals, the pragmatic sense,
if we zoom in on jobs, we can look
at programmers, because it seems like AI systems are currently doing incredibly
well at programming and increasingly so. So a lot of people that, uh,
program for a living, love programming, are worried they will lose their jobs.
How worried should they be? Do you think,
and what's the right way to sort of adjust to the new reality
and ensure that you survive and thrive as a human in the programming world?
Well, it's interesting that programming, and it's, again,
counterintuitive to what we thought years ago, maybe,
that some of the skills that we think of as harder skills
are turned out maybe to be the easier ones for various reasons,
but coding and math, because you can create a lot of synthetic data and verify if that data is correct. So
because of that nature of that, it's easier to make things like synthetic data to train from.
It's also an area of course we're all interested in because we're as programmers, right, to help
us and get faster at it and more productive. So I think that for the next era, like the next five,
10 years, I think what we're going to find is people who
are kind of embrace these technologies become almost at
one with them, whether that's in the creative industries or the
technical industries will become sort of superhumanly productive,
I think. So the great programmers will be even better,
but there'll be even 10x even what they are today. And because
there you'll be able to use their skills to utilize the tools to the maximum,
exploit them to the maximum.
And so I think that's what we're going to see in the next domain.
So that's going to cause quite a lot of change.
And so that's coming.
A lot of people benefit from that.
So I think one example of that is, if coding becomes easier,
it becomes available to many more creatives to do more.
But I think the top programmers will still have
huge advantages as terms of going back to
specifying what the architecture should be,
the question should be how to guide
these coding assistants in a way that's useful,
check whether the code they produce is good.
I think there's plenty of headroom there
for the foreseeable, you know, next few years.
So I think there's several interesting things there.
One is there's a lot of imperative
to just get better and better consistently
of using these tools so they are riding the wave
of the improvement, improving models,
versus like competing against them.
But sadly, but that's the nature of life on earth.
There could be a huge amount of value to certain kinds of programming at the cutting edge and
less value to other kinds.
For example, it could be like front end web design might be more amenable to,
as you mentioned, to generation by AI systems
and maybe, for example, game engine design
or something like this, or back-end design,
or guiding systems in high-performance situations,
high-performance programming type of design decisions,
that might be extremely valuable,
but it will shift where the humans are needed most
and that's scary for people to address.
I think that's right.
That anytime where there's a lot of disruption and change,
we've had this, it's not just this time,
we've had this in many times in human history
with the internet, mobile,
but before that was the industrial revolution. It's going to be one of
those eras where there will be a lot of change. I think there'll be new jobs we can't even imagine
today, just like the internet created. Then those people with the right skill sets to ride that wave
will become incredibly valuable, write those skills. But maybe people will have to relearn or
adapt a bit their current skills.
The thing that's going to be harder to deal with this time around is that I think what
we're going to see is something like probably 10 times the impact the Industrial Revolution
had but 10 times faster as well.
Instead of 100 years, it takes 10 years.
That's going to make it, it's like 100x the impact and the speed combined.
That's what's I think going to make it more difficult for society to deal with. There's
a lot to think through and I think we need to be discussing that right now. I encourage
top economists in the world and philosophers to start thinking about how is society going to be affected by this and what should we
do including things like universal basic provision or something like that, where a lot of the
increased productivity gets shared out and distributed to society and maybe in the form
of surface services and other things.
Where if you want more than that, you still go and get some incredibly rare skills
and things like that and make yourself unique.
But there's a basic provision that is provided.
And if you think of government as a technology,
there's also interesting questions,
not just in economics, but just politics.
How do you design a system that's responding
to the rapidly changing times,
such that you can represent
the different pain that people feel from the different groups and how do you reallocate
resources in a way that addresses that pain and represents the hope and the pain and the fears of
different people in a way that doesn't lead to division. Because politicians are often really good at sort of fueling the division and
using that to get elected, the other defining the other and then saying that's
bad and sort of based on that, I think that's often counterproductive to
leveraging a rapidly changing technology, how to help the world flourish.
So we almost need to improve our political systems as well rapidly.
If you think of them as a technology.
Definitely.
And I think, I think we'll need new governance structures, institutions
probably to help with this transition.
So I think political philosophy and political science is going to be key to that.
But I think the number one thing, first of all, is to create more abundance of resources.
So that's the number one thing, increase productivity, get more resources, maybe eventually get out of the zero-sum situation.
Then the second question is how to use those resources and distribute those resources.
But yeah, you can't do that without having that abundance first.
You mentioned to me the book The Maniac by Benjamin Louboutin, a book on, first of all,
about you.
There's a bio about you.
Strange, yeah.
It's unclear.
Yes, sure.
It's unclear how much is fiction, how much is reality.
But I think the central figure that is John von Neumann,
I would say it's a haunting and beautiful exploration
of madness and genius,
and let's say the double-edged sword of discovery.
And for people who don't know,
John von Neumann is a kind of legendary mind.
He contributed to quantum mechanics.
He was on the Manhattan Project.
He is widely considered to be the father of or pioneer the modern computer and AI and
so on.
So as many people say, he's like one of the smartest humans ever.
So it's just fascinating.
And what's also fascinating is as a person who saw nuclear science and physics become the atomic
bomb so you you got to see ideas become a thing that has a huge amount of impact
on the world he also foresaw the same thing for computing he's here and that's
the a little bit again beautiful and haunting aspect of the book. Uh, then taking a leap forward and looking at this, at least at all,
alpha zero, alpha go, alpha zero, big moment that maybe John von
Neumann's thinking was brought to, to, to, to reality.
So I guess the question is, um, what do you think if you got to hang out with John von Neumann now, what would he say about what's going on?
Well, that would be an amazing experience. He's a fantastic mind. And I also love the way he spent a lot of his time at Princeton at the Institute of Advanced Studies, a very special place for thinking. It's amazing how much of a polymath he was in the spread of things he helped invent,
including of course the von Neumann architecture that all the modern computers are based on.
He had amazing foresight. I think he would have loved where we are today. I think he
would have really enjoyed AlphaGo. He also did game theory. I think he foresaw a lot of what would happen with learning machine
systems that are kind of grown, I think he called it rather than programmed. I'm not sure how even
maybe he wouldn't even be that surprised. That's the fruition of what I think he already foresaw
in the 1950s. I wonder what advice he would give. He got to see the building of the atomic bomb with
the Manhattan project. I'm sure there's interesting stuff
that maybe he's not talked about enough.
Maybe some bureaucratic aspect,
maybe the influence of politicians,
maybe not enough of picking up the phone
and talking to people that are called enemies
by the said politicians.
There might be some deep wisdom
that we just may have lost from that time, actually.
Yeah, I'm sure there is.
I mean, I've read a lot of books for that time as well, Chronicle
Time and some brilliant people involved. I agree with you. I think maybe there needs
to be more dialogue and understanding. I hope we can learn from those times. I think the
difference here is that the AI has so many, it's a multi-use technology. Obviously, we're trying to do things
like solve all diseases, help with energy and scarcity. These incredible things, this is why
all of us and myself, you know, I worked started on this journey 30 plus years ago. But of course,
there are risks too. And probably Von Neumann, my guess is he foresaw both.
I think he sort of said, I think to his wife that computers would be even more impactful
in the world.
As we just discussed, I think that's right.
I think it's going to be 10 times at least of the Industrial Revolution.
I think he's right.
I think he would have been, I imagine, fascinated by
where we are now. And I think one of the, maybe you can correct me, but one of the takeaways from the book is that reason, as said in the book, mad dreams of reason, it's not enough for guiding
humanity as we build these super powerful technology that there's something else.
I mean, there's also like a religious component, whatever God, whatever religion gives, it
pulls at something in the human spirit that raw cold reason doesn't give us.
And I agree with that.
I think we need to approach it with whatever you want to call it.
The spiritual dimension or humanist dimension doesn't have to be to do with religion. But
this idea of a soul, what makes us human, this spark that we have, perhaps it's to do
with consciousness when we finally understand that. I think that has to be at the heart
of the endeavor. I've always seen technology as the enabler, the tools that enable us to
flourish and to understand more about the world.
I'm sort of with Feynman on this and he used to always talk about science and art being
companions. You can understand it from both sides, the beauty of a flower, how beautiful
it is and also understand why the colors of the flower evolve like that. That just makes
it more beautiful, just the intrinsic beauty of the flower. I've always seen it
like that. Maybe in the Renaissance times, the great discoverers then, like people like
Da Vinci, I don't think he saw any difference between science and art and perhaps religion.
Everything is just part of being human and being inspired about the world around us.
That's the philosophy I try to take. One of my favorite
philosophers is Spinoza. I think he combined that all very well, this idea of trying to understand
the universe and understanding our place in it. That was his way of understanding religion.
I think that's quite beautiful. For me, all of these things are related, interrelated,
the technology and what it means
to be human. And I think it's very important though, that we remember that as when we're
immersed in the technology and the research. I think a lot of researchers that I see in our field
are a little bit too narrow and only understand the technology. And I think also that's why it's important for this to be debated by society at large.
And I'm very supportive of things like the AI summits that will happen and governments
understanding it.
And I think that's one good thing about the chatbot era and the product era of AI is that
everyday person can actually feel and interact with cutting edge AI and feel it for themselves.
Yeah, because they force the technologists to have the human conversation, yeah, for sure.
That's the hopeful aspect of it, like you said, is the dual-use technology,
that we're forcefully integrating the entire of humanity into it, into the discussion about AI,
because ultimately, AI, AGI will be used for things that states use technologies for, which is conflict and so on.
And the more we integrate humans into this picture by having chats with them, the more
we will guide.
Yeah, be able to adapt society will be able to adapt to these technologies like we've
always done in the past with the incredible technologies we've invented in the past. Do you think there will be something like a Manhattan project where there will
be an escalation of the power of this technology in states in their old way of
thinking we'll try to use it as weapons technologies and there will be this kind
of escalation.
I hope not.
I think that would be very dangerous to do.
And I think also, you know,
not the right use of the technology.
I hope we'll end up with more,
something more collaborative if needed,
like more like a CERN project, you know,
where it's research focused and the best minds in the world
come together to carefully complete the final steps and make sure it's respons focused and the best minds in the world come together to carefully complete
the final steps and make sure it's responsibly done before deploying it to the world. We'll
see. I mean, it's difficult with the current geopolitical climate, I think, to see cooperation,
but things can change. And I think at least on the scientific level, it's important for
the researchers to keep in touch and keep close to each other on at least on those kinds of topics.
Yeah, I personally believe on the education side and immigration side, it would be great if both directions, people from the West immigrated China and China back. I mean, there is some like family human aspect of people just intermixing.
Yeah.
And thereby those ties grow strong so you can't sort of divide against each other,
this kind of old school way of thinking. And so multi-cultural, multidisciplinary research teams
working on scientific questions, that's like the hope. Don't let the leaders that are warmongers
divide us
I think science is the ultimately a really beautiful connector
Yeah science has always been I think quite a very collaborative endeavor and you know scientists know that it's it's a it's a collective endeavor
As well, we can all learn from each other. So perhaps it could be a vector to get a bit of cooperation
What's your ridiculous question? What's your P doomDoom? Probability of the human civilization destroys itself.
Well, look, I don't have a P-Doom number.
The reason I don't is because I think
it would imply a level of precision that is not there.
So I don't know how people are getting their P-Doom numbers.
I think it's a little bit of a ridiculous notion because what I would say is it's definitely non-zero and it's probably
non-negligible. So that in itself is pretty sobering. And my view is it's just hugely
uncertain, right? What these technologies are going to be able to do, how fast are they going
to take off, how controllable are they going to be? Some things may turn out to be able to do, how fast are they going to take off, how controllable they're going to be, some things
may turn out to be and hopefully, like way easier than
we thought, right. But it may be there's some really hard
problems that are harder than we guessed today. And I think we
don't know that for sure. And so in under those conditions of a
lot of uncertainty, but huge stakes both ways, you know, on
the one hand, we could solve all
diseases, energy problems, the scarcity problem, and then travel to the stars and conscious
to the stars and maximum human flourishing. On the other hand, is this sort of P doom
scenarios. So given the uncertainty around it and the importance of it, it's clear to
me the only rational, sensible approach is to proceed with cautious optimism. So we want the benefits,
of course, and all of the amazing things that AI can bring. And actually, I would be really worried
for humanity if given the other challenges that we have, climate, aging, resources, all of that,
if I didn't know something like AI was
coming down the line, right? How would we solve all those other problems? I think it's
hard. So I think we've, you know, it could be amazingly transformative for good. But
on the other hand, you know, there are these risks that we know are there, but we can't
quite quantify. So the best thing to do is to use the scientific method to do more research to try and more
precisely define those risks and of course address them.
And I think that's what we're doing.
I think there probably needs to be 10 times more effort of that than there is now as we're
getting closer and closer to the AGI line.
What would be the source of worry for you more?
Would it be human caused or AI, AGI caused?
Humans abusing that technology versus AGI itself
through mechanism that you've spoken about,
which is fascinating deception or this kind of stuff,
getting better and better and better secretly.
I think they operate over different timescales
and they're equally important to address.
So there's just the
common garden of variety of bad actors using new technology, in this case, general purpose technology and repurposing it for harmful ends. And that's a huge risk. And I think that has a
lot of complications because generally, I'm in huge favor of open science and open source. And
in fact, we did it with all our science projects like AlphaFold and all of
those things for the benefit of the scientific community.
But how does one restrict bad actors access to these powerful systems,
whether they're individuals or even rogue states,
but enable access at the same time to good actors to maximally build on top of.
It's pretty tricky problem that I've not heard a clear solution to.
So there's the bad actor use case problem.
Then there's obviously as the systems become more agentic and closer to AGI,
and more autonomous, how do we ensure the guardrails and
they stick to what we want them to do and under our control?
Yeah, I tend to maybe on my mind is limited, worry more about the humans, the bad actors.
And there it could be in part, how do you not put destructive technology in the hands of bad actors?
But in another part, from again, geopolitical technology perspective,
how do you reduce the number of bad actors in the world?
That's that's also interesting human problem. Yeah, it's a hard problem. I mean look we we we can
Maybe also use the technology itself to help
Early warning on some of the bad actor use cases right whether that's bio or
Nuclear or whatever it is like AI could be potentially helpful there as long as the AI that you're using is itself reliable.
So it's a sort of interlocking problem,
and that's what makes it very tricky.
And again, it may require some agreement internationally,
at least between China and the US,
of some basic standards.
I have to ask you about the book, The Maniac.
There's this, the hand of God moment,
we said all his moves 78,
that perhaps the last time a human did a move
of sort of pure human genius and beat AlphaGo
or like broke his brain.
Yes.
Sorry to anthropomorphize, but it's an interesting moment
because I think in so many domains it will keep happening.
Yeah, it's a special moment and it was great for Lisa Doll. And I think it's, in a way,
they were sort of inspiring each other. We as a team were inspired by Lisa Doll's brilliance
and nobleness. And then maybe he got inspired by what AlphaGo was doing to then conjure this incredible inspirational moment.
It's captured very well in the documentary about it.
And I think that'll continue in many domains
where there's this, at least for the, again,
for the foreseeable future of like,
the humans bringing in their ingenuity
and asking the right question, let's say,
and then utilizing these tools in a way that then cracks a problem.
Yeah, as the AI becomes smarter and smarter, one of the interesting questions we can ask ourselves
is what makes humans special? It does feel, perhaps biased, that we humans are deeply special.
does feel, perhaps biased, that we humans are deeply special.
I don't know if it's our intelligence. It could be something else, that other thing
that's outside the mad dreams of reason.
I think that's what I've always imagined when I was a kid
and starting on this journey of like,
I was of course fascinated by things like consciousness,
did a neuroscience PhD to look
at how the brain works, especially imagination and memory. I focused on the hippocampus.
It's going to be interesting. I always thought the best way, of course, one can philosophize
about it and have thought experiments and maybe even do actual experiments like you
do in neuroscience on real brains. But in the end, I always imagined that building AI
a kind of intelligent artifact,
and then comparing that to the human mind and seeing what the differences were,
would be the best way to uncover what's special about the human mind, if indeed there is anything
special. And I suspect there probably is, but it's going to be hard to, you know, I think this
journey we're on will help us understand that and define that. And you know, there may be a difference between carbon based substrates that we are and
silicon ones when they process information, you know, one of
the best definitions I like of consciousness is it's the way
information feels when we process it. Right? It could be
I mean, it doesn't have it's not very helpful scientific
explanation, but I think it's kind of interesting intuition
intuitive one. And, and so you know, on this, this this journey, this scientific journey we're on, we'll, I think it's kind of interesting and Jewish intuitive one and And so, you know on this this this journey this scientific journey we're on will I think help uncover that mystery?
Yeah, what I cannot create I do not understand. That's somebody you deeply admire Richard Feynman. Like you mentioned you also reach
For the Wigner's dreams of universality that he saw in constrained domains, but also broadly generally in mathematics and so on.
So many aspects on which you're pushing towards,
not to start trouble at the end, but Roger Penrose.
Yes, okay.
So, do you think consciousness,
there's this hard problem of consciousness,
how information feels.
Do you think consciousness, first of all, is a computation? And if it is, if it's information
processing, like you said, everything is, is it something that could be modeled by a classical
computer? Or is it a quantum mechanical in nature? Well, look, Penrose is an amazing thinker, one of
the greatest of the modern era. And he we've had a lot of discussions about this. Of course, we cordially disagree, which is,
you know, I feel like, I mean, he collaborated with a lot of good neuroscientists to see
if he could find mechanisms for quantum mechanics behavior in the brain. And they, to my knowledge,
they haven't found anything convincing yet. So my betting is there is, is that it's mostly, you know, it is just classical computing
that's going on in the brain, which suggests that all the phenomena are modelable or mimicable
by a classical computer. But we'll see. You know, there may be this final mysterious things
of the feeling of consciousness, the qualia, these kinds of things that philosophers debate,
where it's unique to the substrate. We may even come towards understanding that when if we do things
like Neuralink and have neural interfaces to the AI systems, which I think we probably
will eventually, maybe to keep up with the AI systems, we might actually be able to feel
for ourselves what it's like to compute on silicon, right? So and maybe that will tell us. So I think
it's gonna be interesting. I had a debate once with the late
Daniel Dennett about why do we think each other are conscious?
Okay, so it's for two reasons. One is you're exhibiting the
same behavior that I am. So that's one thing behaviorally,
you seem like a conscious being if I am. But the second thing,
which is often overlooked is that we're running on the same substrate. So if you're
behaving in the same way, and we're running on the same substrate, it's most parsimonious to assume
you're feeling the same experience that I'm feeling. But with an AI that's on silicon,
we won't be able to rely on the second part. Even if it exhibits the first part,
that behavior looks like a behavior of a conscious being, it might even claim it is,
but we wouldn't know how it actually felt.
And it probably couldn't know what we felt,
at least in the first stages,
maybe when we get to super intelligence
and the technologies that builds,
perhaps we'll be able to bridge that.
No, I mean, that's a huge test for radical empathy,
is to empathize with a different substrate.
Right. Exactly. We never had to confine that before.
Yeah. So maybe through brain computer interfaces, be able to truly empathize
what it feels like to be a computer.
Well, for information to be computed, not on a carbon system.
I mean, that's deeply exciting. I mean, some people kind of think about that with plants,
with other life forms, which could
be similar substrate, but sufficiently far enough on the evolutionary tree that it requires
a radical empathy, but to do that with a computer.
I mean, there are animal studies on this of like, of course, higher animals like killer
whales and dolphins and dogs and monkeys, they have some, and elephants,
they have some aspects certainly of consciousness, right?
Even though they might not be that smart on an IQ sense.
So we can already empathize with that.
And maybe even some of our systems one day, like we built this thing called Dolphin Gemma,
which can, a version of our system was trained on dolphin and whale sounds.
And maybe we'll be able to build
an interpreter or translator at some point.
Should be pretty cool.
What gives you hope for the future of human civilization?
Well, what gives me hope is I think
our almost limitless ingenuity, first of all.
I think the best of us and the best human minds
are incredible and I love meeting and watching any human
that's the top of their game,
whether that's sport or science or art,
it's just nothing more wonderful than that,
seeing them in their element, in flow.
I think it's almost limitless.
Our brains are general systems, intelligent systems.
So I think it's almost limitless
what we can potentially do with them.
And then the other thing is our extreme adaptability.
I think it's going to be okay in terms of there's going to be a lot of change.
But look where we are now
without effectively our hunter gatherer brains.
How is it we can, you know,
we can cope with the modern world, right?
Flying on planes, doing podcasts,
playing computer games and virtual simulations.
I mean, it's already mind-blowing given that our mind was developed
for hunting buffaloes on the tundra.
So I think this is just the next step.
It's actually kind of interesting to see how society is already
adapted to this mind-blowing AI technology we have today already.
It's sort of like, oh, I talk to chatbots.
Totally fine.
And it's very possible that this very podcast activity, which I'm here for, will be completely
replaced by AI.
I'm very replaceable and I'm waiting for it.
Not to the level that you can do it, Lex.
I don't think.
Thank you.
That's what we humans do to each other.
We compliment.
Exactly.
All right.
And I'm deeply grateful for us humans to have this infinite capacity for curiosity, adaptability,
like you said, and also compassion and ability to love.
Exactly.
All of those human things.
All the things that are deeply human.
Well, this is a huge honor, Demis.
You're one of the truly special humans in the world.
Thank you so much for doing what you do and for talking today.
Thank you very much, Lex. to articulate some things I've been thinking about. If you would like to submit questions, including in audio and video form, go to Lexfreeman.com
slash AMA.
I got a lot of amazing questions, thoughts, and requests from folks.
I'll keep trying to pick some randomly and comment on it at the end of every episode.
I got a note on May 21st this year that said, Hi Lex, 20 years ago today, David Foster Wallace delivered his famous
This Is Water speech at Kenyan College.
What do you think of this speech?
Well, first, I think this is probably one of the greatest and
most unique commencement speeches ever given.
But of course, I have many favorites,
including the one by Steve Jobs.
David Foster Wallace is one of
my favorite writers and one of my favorite humans.
There's a tragic honesty to his work,
and it always felt as if he was engaging in
a constant battle with his own mind.
The writing, his writing, were kind of his notes
from the front lines of that battle.
Now onto the speech, let me quote some parts.
There's of course the parable of the fish and the water that goes,
there are these two young fish swimming along
and they happen to meet an older fish swimming the other way.
Who nods at them and says, morning boys, how's the water?
And the two young fish swim on for a bit and
then eventually one of them looks over at the other and goes, what the hell is water?
In the speech, David Foster Wallace goes on to say,
the point of the fish story is merely that the most obvious,
important realities are often the ones that are hardest to see and talk about.
Stated as an English sentence, of course, this is just the banal platitude.
But the fact is that in the day to day trenches of adult existence,
banal platitudes can have a life or death importance.
Or so I wish to suggest to you in this dry and lovely morning.
I have several takeaways from this parable and the speech that follows.
First, I think we must question everything, and in particular,
the most basic assumptions about our reality, our life, and the very nature of existence.
And that this project is a deeply personal one.
In some fundamental sense, nobody can really help you in this process of discovery.
The call to action here, I think, from David Foster Wallace, as he puts it, is to quote, to be just a little less arrogant,
to have just a little more critical awareness
about myself and my certainties.
Because a huge percentage of the stuff
that I tend to be automatically certain of is,
it turns out, totally wrong and deluded.
All right, back to me, Lex speaking. Second takeaway is that the central spiritual battles And that's why I'm here today to share with you a few of the most important
things that we can do to help you get through this difficult time.
So let's get started.
So the first is to be strong and deluded.
All right, back to me, Lex speaking.
Second takeaway is that the central spiritual battles of our life are not
fought on a mountain top somewhere at a meditation retreat, but it is of daily life. Third takeaway is that we too easily give away our time
and attention to the multitude of distractions
that the world feeds us,
the insatiable black holes of attention.
David Foster Wallace's call to action in this case
is to be deeply aware of the beauty in each moment
and to find meaning in the mundane.
I often quote David Foster Wallace in his advice
that the key to life is to be unboreable.
And I think this is exactly right.
Every moment, every object, every experience,
when looked at closely enough,
contains within it infinite richness to explore.
And since Demis Kassabis of this very podcast episode and I are such fans of Richard Feynman,
allow me to also quote Mr. Feynman on this topic as well.
Quote, I have a friend who's an artist and has sometimes taken a view which I don't agree with very well.
He'll hold up a flower and say, look how beautiful it is.
And I'll agree.
Then he says, I as an artist can see how beautiful this is, but you as a scientist take this all apart and it becomes a dull thing.
And I think that's kind of nutty.
First of all, the beauty that he sees is available to other people and
to me too, I believe.
Although I may not be quite as refined aesthetically as he is,
I can appreciate the beauty of a flower.
At the same time, I see much more about the flower than he sees.
I can imagine the cells in there, the complicated actions inside which also have beauty.
I mean, it's not just beauty at this dimension, at one centimeter. There's also beauty at the
smaller dimensions, the inner structure, also the processes. The fact that the colors in the flower
evolved in order to attract insects to pollinate it is interesting. The fact that the colors in the flower evolved in order to attract insects to
pollinate it is interesting.
It means that the insects can see the color.
It adds a question, does this aesthetic sense also exist in lower forms?
Why is it aesthetic?
All kinds of interesting questions which the science knowledge only adds to
the excitement, the mystery, and
the awe of a flower, it only adds.
All right, back to David Foster Wallace's speech.
He has a great story in there that I particularly enjoy.
It goes, there are these two guys sitting together in a bar in
the remote Alaskan wilderness.
One of the guys is religious, the other is an atheist, and the two are arguing about
the existence of God with that special intensity that comes after about the fourth beer.
And the atheist says, look, it's not like I don't have actual reasons for not believing
in God.
It's not like I haven't ever experimented with the whole
God and prayer thing. Just last month, I got caught away from the camp in that terrible blizzard.
And I was totally lost and I couldn't see a thing. And it was 50 below. And so I tried it.
I fell to my knees in the snow and cried out, Oh God, if there is a God, I'm lost in this blizzard and I'm gonna die if you don't help me.
And now back in the bar, the religious guy looks at the atheist all puzzled.
Well, then you must believe now, he says.
After all, there you are, alive.
The atheist just rolls his eyes.
No, man, all that happened was a couple of Eskimos happened to be wandering by and
show me the way back to the camp.
All this I think teaches us that everything is a matter of perspective.
And that wisdom may arrive if we have the humility to keep shifting and
expanding our perspective on the world.
Thank you for allowing me to talk a bit about David Foster Wallace.
He's one of my favorite writers and he's a beautiful soul.
If I may, one more thing I wanted to briefly comment on.
I find myself to be in this strange position of getting attacked online often
from all sides, including being lied about
sometimes through selective misrepresentation, but often through downright lies.
I don't know how else to put it.
This all breaks my heart, frankly, but I've come to understand that it's the way of the
internet and the cost of the path I've chosen.
There's been days when it's been rough on me mentally.
It's not fun being lied about,
especially when it's about things that are usually
for a long time have been a source of happiness
and joy for me.
But again, that's life.
I'll continue exploring the world of people and ideas
with empathy and rigor,
wearing my heart on my sleeve as
much as I can.
For me, that's the only way to live.
Anyway, a common attack on me is about my time at MIT and Drexel, two great universities
I love and have tremendous respect for.
Since a bunch of lies have accumulated online about me on these topics to a sad and at times hilarious degree, I thought I would once more state
the obvious facts about my bio for the small number of you who may care.
TLGR, two things. First, as I say often, including in a recent podcast episode
that somehow was listened to by many millions of people, I proudly went to Drexel University for my bachelor's, master's, and doctorate
degrees.
Second, I am a research scientist at MIT and have been there in a paid research position
for the last 10 years.
Allow me to elaborate a bit more on these two things now,
but please skip that this is not at all interesting.
So like I said, a common attack on me
is that I have no real affiliation with MIT.
The accusation, I guess, is that I'm falsely claiming
an MIT affiliation because I taught a lecture there once.
Nope, that accusation against me is a complete lie.
I have been at MIT for over 10 years
in a paid research position from 2015 to today.
To be extra clear, I'm a research scientist at MIT,
working in LIDS, the Laboratory for Information and Decision Systems,
in the College of Computing.
For now, since I'm still at MIT,
you can see me in the directory and on the various lab pages.
I have indeed given many lectures at MIT over the years,
a small fraction of which I posted online.
Teaching for me always has been just for fun
and not part of my research work.
I personally think I suck at it,
but I have always learned and grown from the experience.
It's like Feynman spoke about,
if you want to understand something deeply,
it's good to try to teach it.
But like I said, my main focus has always been on research.
I published many peer-reviewed papers that you can see in my Google Scholar profile.
For my first four years at MIT, I worked extremely intensively.
Most weeks were 80 to 100 hour work weeks. After that in 2019 I
still kept my research scientist position but I split my time taking a
leap to pursue projects in AI and robotics outside MIT and to dedicate a
lot of focus to the podcast. As I've said I've been continuously surprised just
how many hours preparing for an episode takes. There are many episodes of the podcast
for which I have to read, write, and think
for 100, 200 or more hours
across multiple weeks and months.
Since 2020, I have not actively published research papers.
Just like the podcast,
I think it's something that's a serious full-time effort.
But not publishing and doing full-time research
has been eating at me because I love research
and I love programming and building systems
that test out interesting technical ideas,
especially in the context of human AI
or human robot interaction.
I hope to change this in the coming months and years.
What I've come to realize about myself is,
if I don't publish or if I don't launch systems
that people use, I definitely feel like a piece of me
is missing.
It legitimately is a source of happiness for me.
Anyway, I'm proud of my time at MIT.
I was and am constantly surrounded by people much smarter than me,
many of whom have become lifelong colleagues and friends.
MIT is a place I go to escape the world, to focus on exploring fascinating questions
at the cutting edge of science and engineering.
This, again, makes me truly happy.
And it does hit pretty hard on a psychological level when I'm getting attacked over this.
Perhaps I'm doing something wrong.
If I am, I will try to do better.
In all this discussion of academic work, I hope you know that I don't ever mean to say that I'm an expert at anything.
In the podcast and in my private life, I don't claim to be smart.
In fact, I often call myself an idiot and mean it.
I try to make fun of myself as much as possible and
in general to celebrate others instead.
Now to talk about Druxy University, which I also love, am proud of, and am deeply grateful
for my time there.
As I said, I went to Drexel for my bachelor's, master's, and doctor degrees in computer
science and electrical engineering.
I've talked about Drexel many times, including, as I mentioned, at the end of a recent podcast,
the Donald Trump episode, funny enough, that was listened to by many millions of people,
where I answered a question about graduate school and explained my own journey at Drexel
and how grateful I am for it. If it's at all interesting to you, please go listen to the
end of that episode or watch the related clip.
At Drexel, I met and worked with many brilliant researchers and mentors from whom I've learned a lot about engineering, science, and life.
There are many valuable things I gained from my time at Drexel.
First, I took a large number of very difficult math and theoretical computer science courses. They taught me how to think deeply and rigorously, and also how to work hard and
not give up, even if it feels like I'm too dumb to find a solution to a technical problem.
Second, I programmed a lot during that time, mostly C, C++.
I programmed robots, optimization algorithms, computer vision systems,
wireless network protocols, multimod, computer vision systems, wireless network protocols,
multimodal machine learning systems, and all kinds of simulations of physical systems.
This is where I really developed a love for programming, including, yes, Emacs and the Kinesis keyboard. I also during that time read a lot.
I played a lot of guitar, wrote a lot of crappy poetry,
and trained a lot of enjudo and jujitsu,
which I cannot sing enough praises to.
Jujitsu humbled me on a daily basis throughout my 20s,
and it still does to this very day
whenever I get a chance to train.
Anyway, I hope that the folks who occasionally get swept up
in the chanting online crowds that want to tear down others don't lose themselves in it too much.
In the end, I still think there's more good than bad in people. But we're all, each of us, a mixed bag.
I know I am very much flawed.
I speak awkwardly.
I sometimes say stupid shit.
I can get irrationally emotional.
I can be too much of a dick when I should be kind.
I can lose myself in a biased rabbit hole
before I wake up to the bigger,
more accurate picture of reality. I'm human, and so are you, for better or for worse.
And I do still believe we're in this whole beautiful mess together.
I love you all. Music