Lineup Fantasy Football Show - 5 DARK HORSE WRs With a Real Shot at WR1 Overall in Fantasy Football

Episode Date: June 22, 2026

The Dark Horse Fantasy Football WRs that have a REAL shot at finishing as the overall WR1 in fantasy football this year. Mitch and Mello break down 5 wide receivers with extremely high upside heading into the 2026 fantasy football season, including one we consider a league winner and help you take down a championship in redraft, best ball, or dynasty fantasy football. Timestamps: 0:00 - Fantasy WRs with Sneaky WR1 Upside 0:47 - Justin Jefferson 4:30 - AJ Brown 8:33 - Malik Nabers 11:43 - Ladd McConkey 16:39 - Emeka Egbuka Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome to the lineup fantasy football show. I'm Mitch Anderson. I'm Justin Mello. And Mello, we're not talking about guys like Puka, JSN, or JMAR today. We are going to break down five players we think have a legitimate shot at the overall wide receiver one that are ranked outside of the top five in the position. We're going to go from highest ADP to lowest ADP, basically who you would be drafting closer to the beginning of the draft towards who's a little bit deeper of a guy. And we're going to finish with our deepest dark horse candidate to finish as a wide receiver one who's going as the wide receiver 20, the board and explain exactly why they have a realistic path, but you want to kick us off? Yeah, let's do it. And you're right. We're not talking about the J.S. Hens or the Pookas of the world, but we're going to start with a guy that should be in that conversation. And was.

And was. He was honestly ranked ahead of those guys up until this off season. That's Justin Jefferson, guy who's done it before. We're obviously not going super deep in our bag here to start as he is going as the wide receiver six. So it's not all that crazy, but people are kind of acting like it is crazy to say he could be the wide receiver one in 2026. He's already had a wide receiver one finish before. 2022 he was a wide receiver one. He could do it again. Even just two years ago, he was the wide receiver two behind Javar Chase.

Feels like decades ago that we were watching Justin Jefferson at the top of fantasy. Justin Jefferson is like, it feels like he's in like D'Andre Hopkins status right now. Yeah. Like he used to be great. He should be great next year. No, literally. He's like at the end of his career. But that's not the case.

Like he's still young. He's still super good. It's just one really, really bad year. And we talk about in this show so much. how bullish we are on this Vikings offense with Kyler Murray at the helm. And honestly, I don't even think it's really a super pro-Kyler take as much as it is an anti-J. MacArthur McArthur take. A thousand percent.

J.J. McCarthy was an atomic bomb to this offense, what he did to it. And now he's going to be out of the picture. I know we haven't officially named Kyler the start yet, but that will come. Justin Jefferson is debatably the best receiver in the game. Whether you think he's the best or top three, doesn't matter. He's an elite receiver. He gets to play now with Kyler. He gets to play now in this offense.

We've seen him succeed already with Kevin O'Connell. And Kyler has propelled receivers to very high finishes in fantasy before. DeAndre Hopkins, wide receiver 4 in 2020. Trey McBride, Tide, End 2 in 2024. So people sob the stink from last year. Just forget about it. Throw it to the side. This is still Justin Jefferson.

He still could very well be the wide receiver one. Yeah, don't worry. We're going to be getting a lot deep. than this film. We're dipping our toes in, or starting easy with a guy that, like you said, we've seen finish as the Y-Receiver 1 before. We've seen him finish top four three separate times. We actually had a recent episode talking sales that I mentioned that I wasn't too high on Jordan Addison with Kyler at the helm. Part of the entire philosophy behind that that I explained was how much I think Kyler's going to be hyper-targeting, Justin Jefferson. And that 2020 DeAndre

Hopkins year, you mentioned like the Y-Receiver 4, Deontra Hopkins had 160 targets in a 16-game season, which if you had extrapolated that to the 17 game season of 2025, he would have been seconded in the entire NFL and targets last year behind only Jamar Chase. Jesus. So, and you also talked a little bit about Kevin O'Connell has proven time and time again how impressive he is at these reclamation projects and getting his quarterbacks in a position to succeed.

What better way to succeed is there than just spamming one of the best wide receivers in the NFL with targets? Debateably, like you said, like two years ago, we might have been saying he was the most talented wide receiver in the NFL. So I think he said it right when you said, it's less of a Kyler thing. It's more of a JJ McCarthy thing what happened last year

versus this year. And if you even look at last year when Carson Wentz played, it was only five games in JJ average seven receptions for 95 yards a game. If there's ever been such an indictment that it was a JJ McCarthy problem.

Carson Wentz. Yes. In the year 2025, Carson Wentz made Justin Jefferson fantasy relevant. Literally. That's how bad JJ McCarthy was. So yeah, like you said,

it's not, you know, we're kind of dip on our toes in. here, but people aren't putting him in that top five conversation when, I mean, he is a very real shot of being the top wide receiver this upcoming season. A million percent. All right, let's go with another veteran here. Ready to get a little deeper in this bag here, Mitch? This is like when you start dipping it a little bit deeper in the pool, but you're still

in the shallow end for sure. Yeah, still in the shallow end, you're like, I don't really want it to, I don't want to go deeper than my waist because that's what starts, you know, it gets a little uncomfortable. But, you know, we're getting there. We're getting there. Ray on tweet again. And we're going to talk about now, A.J. Brown, who is going as the wide receiver 8. Mitch, the most efficient quarterback in the league last year, who was also the most effective deep ball thrower in the league last year, just got an elite X field stretcher with wide receiver one upside. And it's like people don't care. It's like people don't even care.

I mean, it's under the argument there. Let's get to number three on the list. No, seriously, like, all of the ingredients are there for A.J. Brown. We've seen two top six finishes in his career. And I think this is the highest of ceilings ever been. I mean, I'm not saying he's in his prime or, you know, that he wasn't as good in years past as he's going to be in terms of his raw talent now. I don't think that's the case. It's just the situation is so good right now with Drake May. He's the undisputed alpha of this offense. It almost kind of gives me Stefan Diggs to Buffalo vibes and just in terms of potential. just like a true alpha who's going to command targets who's going to stretch the field with a great deep ball thrower. I think he could have that kind of impact. For those who are worried about his age or the knee issues that some people are talking about, it really didn't hurt him last year. And people act like it was this unmitigated disaster. He was the wide receiver 11 in PPR last year.

So like even in this quote unquote disastrous year, he was still very, very good, very, very effective. So much of the issue was that there were bomb weeks in that wire receiver 11. finish. There were horrible vibes. There were quotes. There was a positivity rabbit in the locker room. I think all of those things kind of combined to just give you a little bad taste in your mouth. But yeah, Y Receiver 11 in an awful offensive environment. He had over a thousand yards in what was considered a disastrous year in Philadelphia. And now he pairs up with the NFL's premier deep ball passer like we've talked about like one of the highest completion percentages and highest ADOTs in the NFL. Like that's not something that happens. I actually heard them talking about this on the ringer fantasy

football show. Shout out to them. But they kind of compared Drake May's season to like if Steph Curry led the NBA in field goal percentage while also only shooting from the logo. That's kind of how it felt. And so the part of this that you didn't mention that I think is so important is, and we've discussed this before, how dominant Josh McDaniels can be as a coordinator when he gets a new weapon in his offense. I actually have a graphic here from GetUp on ESPN, notable wide receivers in their

first season with Josh McDaniels. 222, Devante Adams had 1,14 touchdowns. 2009 Brandon Marshall, 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns. 07 Randy Moss, I think we all know about 1,500 yards and 23 touchdowns. And then even back in 2007, Wes Welker was there for 1,100 yards, almost 1,200 and 8 touchdowns. So now you get A.J. Brown who has almost no legitimate target competition. And we say that as Patriots fans, like, I like the receiver room. But if you're talking about a skill set anywhere close to A.J. Brown, there's no one that sniffs him.

And so we expect the Patriots to have to increase their pass rate this season for a lot. of reasons that you mentioned during our buy episode. But A.J. Brown has played two full 17 game seasons in his career, and he finished as the wide receiver five and six respectively. In fact, he's been a wide receiver one in every season he's played 14 or more games since 2020, and that Y receiver 21 year was just his rookie year. Incredible. It feels weird for a guy this late in his career to have his first wide receiver one finish, but it's totally in the cards because of how magical this situation is. Also, I thank you for bringing up the positivity rabbit again.

I forgot about that. Yeah, that can't go under the radar. We got to keep that in the media cycle. I might get one for whenever I lose in fantasy. I can just inflate my little positivity rabbit and keep the vibes up. Is there anything more fantasy football actually than like doing something one week thinking you're giving yourself good vibes? And it's torn down by the next week because you lost. Like the positivity rabbit literally lasted a week.

Yeah, no. It would do the same in my household too. If I lose one fantasy game, I'm taking a knife to it. that thing we get popped so fast. All right, let's jump into our number three guy, a guy that's been paired with a lot of not so great buzz this off season, but the path is truly there for Malik neighbors going as the Y Receiver 14 off the board. I think this is the scariest guy on the list to talk about.

And I would even say scarier than our deepest Dark Horse candidate, and it's entirely because of the injury fears. I don't think this would have been so insane, like a month or two back when we didn't get all the news about the knee cleanup procedure. and there wasn't all the hesitancy around week one availability, but there's whispers now that he could be ready for week one, so I want to break down if he is the path to how Malik neighbors could finish as the overall wide receiver one.

Last year, it was a small sample size, but two weeks in, wide receiver two before he got hurt, which it literally took him two games to post the sixth best performance by any wide receiver on a week in all of 2025. I feel like that's enough to say if you give this guy 17 healthy games, he's going to do a ton of damage. But if you go back to his rookie year when he was actually healthy, he had the number one target share in the NFL at 34.91%,

which is the second highest in the past four years behind only JSN last season. And so my only knock is, you know, I have a Mat Nagy issue. Yes, you do. And I do have concerns around what that's going to do to the offense, but I genuinely do believe if Malik Neighbors is healthy enough, he can be the exception to my Matt Nagy rule, which is saying a lot.

The talent's there, and talent typically wins out. So, I mean, I have a Nagy issue too. I might have a Greg Roman issue too, so that could really be compounded. I have a nagging-naggy issue. Ooh, I like that. That will be our next t-shirt. No, but you're right. This really boils down to just his week one availability,

because if he is truly healthy for the full season, of course the upside is there. You mentioned like the week two performance last year. That's the type of ceiling this guy has. mentioned the target share we've seen him have historically. Speaking of which, Wondale Robinson is out of town. All of those vacated targets are going to be going to Malik neighbors. There's really not a whole lot of depth in this receiving room.

Him and Isaiah likely. Yeah, him and Isaiah likely, who is a dear sweetheart of this show. One of the league's best young talents. And for what it's worth, I mean, this is maybe a little bit anecdotal, but we see Year three receivers take huge steps all the time. Just last year, the wide receiver one was Pooka Nakua, Year 3 receiver. The wide receiver 2, JSN, Year 3 receiver. Malik Vibers is going into Year 3.

Yeah, that's such a great point. I actually think that doesn't get talked about enough, the data behind these jumps going into Year 3 versus Year 2. I think it's obviously so easy to get so excited when a guy like pops in his first year and then you're like drafting him so high. Look what we just did with Brian Thomas Jr. and Ladd McConkey. And we're doing it to a lesser extent with Tet Nabucca. But year three seems to be where these guys really take that next step.

Year three is where you get a lot of huge explosions in guys' careers. 100%, which is a perfect segue into a year three receiver that we have at number two that I am naming as my favorite dark horse candidate to finish as the overall wide receiver one. And before we get into him, hit that like button, hit the subscribe button if you're enjoying the content, you want to be notified every time we drop a brand new episode. Let's talk some Ladman-Conkie here. You sicko. The wide receiver 17.

I am a complete sicko for this, but I'm so unbelievably bought in, and so is Mike McDaniel, and so is John Harbaugh, who both said that they think, sorry, Jim Harbaugh, who both said that they think this is going to be a huge breakout season

for McConkey. Fantasy pros consensus, buyer receiver 17 off the board. He's the wire receiver 12 in my redraft rankings. If you follow me on Twitter, you know I'm so fired up for Lad, just about as fired up as you can get.

I want to explain why. Last year, we keep using the phrase, unmitigated disaster, let's stick with it. You drafted him as the Y receiver 10 and he finished as the wide receiver 27. But let's break down the anatomy of a bust in fantasy football and situationally, it's about as obvious as you can get. Starting at the offensive line, you lose one all pro tackle in Rishon Slater during the preseason. You lose another in Joe All during their week nine game. Two season-ending injuries leading to an offensive line ranking 31st in the entire NFL and pass

blocking, according to PFF in 2025. As a result, his quarterback, his quarterback, quarterback Justin Herbert finishes with a career-high 54 sacks and a career-high scramble rate of about 8%. Two things you really don't want from a quarterback when you draft their star receiver and fantasy. The other thing you don't want is the team to go out and sign a veteran receiver who already has a report with the quarterback and has an extremely similar play style of your receiver that would cannibalize production, that guy's name being Keenan Allen. And so pretty much everything went wrong last year. Yeah.

And it's only going to get better. By the way, you are a sicko, but I do want it on record that I am sick to. I have caught whatever disgusting sickness you have for live McCongy here. Because I believe you look at this situation, how everything went so wrong last year, how everything is trending in the right direction now. Remember in 2021 Cooper Cup was going as the wide receiver 17? And then he ended up having one of the greatest seasons ever by a receiver. I don't know.

Something else, I don't know. Something there's, I don't know. I think you're right though. I think you're right though. I think there's, yeah, real coach's son vibe. But yeah, and I'm not saying Ladd McConkey's going to reach those heights and, you know, achieve the Triple Crown. But we've seen guys who have been good for a couple years, then take a huge step up and finishes the wider sheep of one when this situation improves. A guy like Cup, it was obviously with the addition of Matthew Stafford. Right. With Ladd-McConkey, it's a healthy O line and Mike McDaniels coming into town.

Also, one last thing I'll note is we're probably. be going to see this offense go to a lot of two wide receiver sets, two tight end sets, which is actually really good for wide receivers as long as they say on the field, which I imagine Lyd McConkey will be on the field and two wide receiver sets, because it's a consolidation of targets. You see more receptions, more targets for wide receivers out of two receiver sets than three. So that could be a very good thing for Lide McConkey. Mello, I absolutely love that you mentioned that because first of all,

we're going to have 122 targets vacated with Keenan Allen out of the building. But Ladd McCongy was still running an unbelievable amount of routes last year, even with Keenan on the field. He ran the 11th most routes in the NFL. You mentioned me bringing Mike McDaniel. He was the orchestrator behind multiple top three fantasy finishes for his wide receiver ones. You look at Debo Samuel. You look at Tyree kill twice while he was in Miami.

And so I want to break into a little bit more of the numbers and the underlying metrics of how good Ladd McConkey's been in his career. rookie season Y receiver 12 led the entire NFL and separation win rate out of the slot at 20.3%, a mark that he almost broke, lined up out wide, an impressive 20.2%. Also a demon against man coverage, ranking second only to Zay Flowers and highest average separation score against man at 0.289. And then to finish by rant here, the yards and volume were the things that were missing in 2025. But when he was out there, he was unbelievable. He was the number one overall receiver in separation score against cover two. He finished fourth among all receivers with 3.26 average yards of separation.

And like I said, he got so many routes out there. They clearly trust him. I think Lab McConkey is absolutely set up for success here. You want to poke a little hole. I am such a, I get so concerned about hamstring injuries in the off season. And so I want to monitor how he progresses here. But Jim Harbaugh thinks of breakout season's coming. Mike McDaniel thinks a breakout season's coming. And I am planting my flag. I think of breakout season's coming. And I think a breakout season's And if he doesn't finish as the wide receiver one overall, I would be absolutely shocked if he is not a wide receiver one in fantasy this year. Yeah.

I think the common thread with all the guys we've talked about is just the situation. Like, Ladman-Marky is in such a beautiful situation to succeed. And we know he has the talent. So if it can all come together, he's going to shock a lot of people in 2026. I couldn't agree more. All right. Let's jump into our last guy, not a third-year receiver, actually a second-year receiver that we mentioned earlier, Ameca Abuka, going as the wide receiver 20 off the board, our deepest dark

course. Mello, it feels like forever since we talked about Abuka, but it also kind of just feels like yesterday we talked about him. I feel like he's kind of always with us on this show. He is in spirit, for sure. We've talked about it at nauseam, but before the wheels fell off with Baker's injury, and honestly with Abuka's injury too, he was the wide receiver three through five weeks. Now you remove Mike Evans from the equation for an entire year. You give Abuka an entire offseason, giving them an opportunity to plan around him and an opportunity for him to build more of her poor with Baker Mayfield. And like, I think it just goes under the radar, the fact that both Baker suffered an injury and Abuka kind of had that lingering hamstring injury happen in week

six. And there's a very clear drop off in their production for both of them. Yeah. It's, I don't think it's getting talked about enough. Like, people just have the, ickiness of the end of the season last year when in reality we have to acknowledge the fact that that won't be the situation going forward abuka should be healthy baker should be healthy and this is going to be a really high passing volume offense where he's going to be the number one receiver in this offense so there is plenty of upside there i've compared abuka to jsn before on this show who is obviously the wide receiver two last year like we talked about earlier i'm not saying you know abuka is going to have quite the same season, but call me crazy. I don't think it's out of the question

that he puts up similar numbers here and year two because of the situation in it. He's in and because of the talent he has Baker Mayfield's a true gunslinger. He's going to throw to a booge of the ball a hell of a lot. There's already reports he's going to play the Y role in this offense, which I think is so perfect for him. I love the potential he has here in 2026. The parallels to JSN are pretty insane. Like when we were like shocking it all down, it's like it all, it comes all the way down. to like they both had 63 receptions in their rookie year. Like, it's eerily similar from college into the NFL. And we've said this before, but like, imagine if you would flip to Buka's rookie year and he was

perfectly fine, like, okay, for 12 weeks. And then he was the wide receiver three through the last five weeks into your fantasy football playoffs. He'd be a second round pick. Yeah, second round pick. He'd be a second round pick. I hate playing NFL, but like, I think this is such a screaming value at wide receiver 20. and like in no other year would we be treating a guy like this.

But I think there's so much stink around guys like Lad and guys like BTJ who absolutely like tanked fantasy teams in their sophomore years. And I think it's giving you an opportunity to get some great value here for Ibuka. Great value. And honestly, like, even though the whole point of this episode is wide receiver one upside, call me crazy barring injury, I don't see any chance he doesn't return on his ADP even if he's not the wide receiver one. But we're so bullish that if everything falls right and he catches enough touchdown,

who knows, he could be the wide receiver one. I absolutely agree. There's 1,000% of path. And those are our five dark horse candidates to finish as the overall wide receiver one in fantasy football. If you agree with any of our picks, let us know down below. If there's somebody we miss that you think could finish as the overall wide receiver one, also let us know down below. But Mello, we miss anything?

Nothing for me. All right, we'll catch you guys next episode.