Lineup Fantasy Football Show - 5 Fantasy Football Breakouts SET TO EXPLODE in 2026 | Dynasty Fantasy Football

Episode Date: June 29, 2026

Which 2026 fantasy football breakouts are actually worth your roster spot and which ones are just noise? Mitch and Mello identify 5 players to capitalize on with real league-winner upside. We break down our top breakout targets for 2026 dynasty fantasy football and redraft. Timestamps: 0:00 - Fantasy Football Breakouts 0:31 - Ashton Jeanty 4:51 - KC Concepcion 8:47 - Jayden Higgins 14:39 - Isaiah Likely 18:41 - Devonta Smith Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Welcome into the line of fantasy football show. I'm Mitch Anderson. I'm Justin Mello. And Mello, sometimes these breakouts seem so obvious in hindsight, guys like Drake May and JSN last year. But it's time to project forward and talk about five players showing some serious signs that they're in for a breakout season in 2026 and explain their path to fantasy dominance,

including our breakout league winner that you'll want to stick around for. But Mello, as always, kick it off with your first breakout of the show. I'm going to start with some low-hanging fruit. I'm taking the easy path. with this first one. And I'm going to be talking about Ashton Genty. Oh, I love it. Just feels like the most obvious breakout waiting to happen.

Like, it feels inevitable that it's going to happen. And Mitch, I know you love it because you've talked about him on this show quite a bit. And you've talked about how disastrous last year was, particularly with the offensive line, how bad the blocking was, how he didn't have a chance. You've had all sorts of great stats and metrics to illustrate that. And I actually heard another really super fun one last week. I thought of you when I heard it. It was actually on the Ringer Fantasy Football Show.

I think I caught this one too. Oh, so as a reminder for you and for everyone else out there, Genty ranked 734th out of 737 running backs in yards before contact over the last 10 years. So over the last 10 years. Fourth worst yards before contact in the last 10 years. Crazy work. That's how bad this offensive line was. But as we've mentioned on this show, things are improving.

The Raiders brought in Tyler Lindelbaum, which is the most notable edition. Also, Spencer Burford to help from a personnel standpoint. But I think more importantly, they brought in Clint Kubiak to help from a schematic standpoint. And that's going to make the real difference. I know the running back situation Seattle was frustrating from a fantasy football perspective last year because of the split between Ken Walker and Zach Charbonnet. But as a team, they were pro football focused as second highest. graded offense in terms of rushing.

They were really effective on the ground. I think Kubiak's going to bring that same style and hopefully that same success to Vegas. Genti has a three-down skill set. He should get the large majority of the work. He should be used as a true workhorse in this ascending Clint Kubiak offense. He's got top six draft capital, which especially for a running back, more than any other position, speaks volumes to your abilities if you're getting drafted that high as a running

back. We saw so many flashes last year, Mitch, you've talked about. it. We've seen the explosiveness. We've seen the home run hitting ability. And I think it all comes together here in year two in a major way, which we've seen for a lot of really high drafted running backs. We've seen the mega breakout in year two, Christian McCaffrey, Josh Jacobs. Just more recently, Bejohn Robinson and Jemir Gibbs went absolutely nuclear in year two after showing flashes their rookie years. Uh, Jentee is still expensive. He's going, depending on where you look. He's like the RB5 or the RB6 in redraft right now.

He's personally my RB4, so I do have him a little bit higher. And especially at the top of the draft, just one or two spots does make a substantial difference. He is a breakout waiting to happen. First of all, I'm just so glad that for once, I'm not taking one of your old guys and you're taking one of mine this spring. I'm returning the favor here. I appreciate it.

I think perfectly put at the end there, that it seems silly to be like, oh, well, I haven't ranked so much higher. He's the RB 5 or 6, and I have them that. but when you get up in those upper rankings, those higher tiers, like, the difference between those guys is massive. This isn't the difference between an RB 20 and 21. Like, you're talking about the cornerstones of your dynasty team. And so I completely agree with you. We both have him ranked higher than Jeremiah Love right now, which I think some people think is a little bit crazy. But you illustrated it so perfectly with a lot of those stats, like so much of it was situational.

He was actually incredible once he was able to get ahead of steam and get past that offensive line and they just weren't blocking for him. And like you said, you bring in Tyler Lindabombe, and you shore up that offensive line, you bring in Clint Kubiak, who sure was running a two-headed monster there in Seattle in the backfield. But when you have a guy like Ashton Genty, like you are going to build the offense around him,

and we've already heard them talking so much about the opportunities they'll give him. And I couldn't agree more. I think this is a smash breakout pick that the price is not going to rise astronomically from now until next summer, but it is going to rise when he has such a phenomenal season in Vegas. The word that comes to mind for me is just inevitable. Barring injury, it just feels so inevitable to me that it's going to happen here too for Ashton Jentee.

Death taxes and Ashton Jenty, baby. That's the mantra right now. All right, let's move on. This is a guy that both of us have honestly touted a little bit during really the draft process and haven't talked about a ton since, but I want to bring a rookie to the table here and let's talk about the Cleveland Brown's new wide receiver one, Casey Concepcion, 21 years old, wide receiver 30 in Dynasty, and wide receiver 52 in redraft. We had him at the 107 in our rookie drafts, and I also think I'm like continuing to rise on him since we first started talking about it.

This is a guy with first round draft capital, went for 61 receptions for 919 yards and 9 touchdowns in his junior year at Texas A&M. Smaller-sized guy, but very versatile, mainly played in the slot, but they love moving him around. And then also, I know you love him too. I love Matt Harmon. If you guys don't know who he is, he's the brain behind reception, but he broke down some of the numbers for Casey Concepcion among wide receivers in this year's draft class. This is the guy who is number one in success rate against man coverage, number three

in success rate against zone, number one against press coverage, number four in contested catch rate and number nine in rate of plays in space with a broken tackle. This guy's like a video game type player, and I know we're all upset because he went to Cleveland, and I'm not going to tell anyone that that's a great situation. obviously it's brutal. I could be playing quarterback there next year. We have no idea. But when we talk about talent winning out over situations specifically in the long term,

Casey Concepcion is going to get the opportunities. He's going to have the chance to shine in this offense. He's going to lead the team in targets, in my opinion. And I think you're able to get a rising NFL star at receiver at like a relatively tame price. I think back to Garrett Wilson in 2022 as a rookie with the Jets. Not a great situation there. He breaks out for 1100 yards and he puts his name on the map. And now we're talking about Garrett Wilson in top 15 Dynasty conversations.

So this is a guy that I think if you can move like a 2027 second for, I'm doing it, which sounds crazy, a guy that's going in the first round moving a second four. But people are just so enamored with these 2027 picks that I actually think you could pull it off. Maybe with a little something on top. Yeah, I think that'd be worth it. And that's coming from someone who I've been probably more critical of Concepcion than a lot of people in the fantasy community. because some of his metrics against zone coverage in college were not very good. That sort of scared me.

He had some drop issues as well. The drop issues, sure. Yeah. The hands are a little scary, especially for someone who profiles as more of a slot receiver. And then he lands in Cleveland, which like nobody wants, you know, who knows maybe next year, Mitch,

when you're at quarterback for the Cleveland Browns, you'll actually elevate him. Because I don't know that. I don't think guys going to the Hall of Fame even want to be in Cleveland to get put into the Hall of Fame. No one wants to be in Cleveland. No, no one wants to be anywhere near Cleveland. Like, they're fading Canton, they're fading...

I was like, I had no idea of Ohio. Cleveland and Canton Art. We're not, we don't know Ohio geography very well. Not geography guys. Not geography guys here at the lineup. So, like, there's a lot of risk there. But at the same time, you look at the opportunity, which you just harp on, which I think is so fair.

I have a hard time seeing a scenario. He doesn't lead this team. in Target chair. Entirely agree. Because of the role he's going to play. Like the next most likely guy, I mean, maybe Jerry Judy, but like gross. Like, I have to, I feel like I have to like go pull trig before we even start talking about Jerry Judy. And then you have Denzel Boston who's stylistically very different type of receiver and had worse draft capital in the same draft.

So on volume alone, there is a whole lot of meat on the bone for Concepcion. It's really him and Fanon that you're considering. a target competition with. Right. And when I say Target Share, I should preface, I mean, at the wide receiver position. At the wide receiver. Sure, yeah. Because Harold Fanon, very likely could lead this team in Target Share.

But honestly, it wouldn't shock me if Concepcion did even over Fanon. I think he's going to. I'm planning my flag that I genuinely think he's going to. Yeah, as a slot receiver, I think that is totally likely. I have a breakout for you who will not lead his team in Target Share. At least I don't think so. But I still think he's going to have a very. good year. And that is Jaden Higgins. Mitch, I'm totally stealing your thunder on this episode.

I love this. This is exactly what I did to you last episode. Is this just an echo chamber? Is the lineup fantasy show an echo chamber with us too? It might be. Just the two of us bouncing the same players off of each other. Well, you've got me convinced on Jaden Higgins. He's a guy I've really been talking myself into because remember a couple years ago when we were willing to give up like an arm, a leg, our firstborn child, and everything else to our our name to get a piece of this Texans passing attack. It was Nico Collins and Stefan Diggs and Tank Dell. They were all being drafted insanely high. How high Stroud used to be going just feels like a fever dream now. Like I can't even envision it. No, we all diluted ourselves. And I feel like

even people that were in were like, this feels weird that they're all going that high. Like, are we projecting the 2013 Broncos out of the Texans? And then of course they ended up like not even being a top 10 offense. Like it was a whole disaster. Nico Collins is the only one who paid off at ADP. But with that said, now just a couple years later, you can get the wide receiver too in this same exact offense as the 50th receiver off the board and redrop. That's 12th or 13th round. And in Dynasty, you think, okay, well, he's going to be substantially higher because he's so younger. He's the wide receiver 48 right now, Fantasy Proz Consensus Dynasty Rankings, super affordable in Dynasty Leagues. And he's a guy I love taking shots on in Dynasty Leagues. And I know I compared

a couple years ago to now and the big difference there is just the vibes and the perception of this offense. So it's fair to point out the Texans of a few years ago or not the Texans of now. This offense feels like a Pop Warner one at times, at least when you scroll Twitter, just listen to people talk about the Texans. C.J. Stroud, who was going so high, like you mentioned, he's been wearing the Duns cap all off season. It's the new Guardian cap. Have you seen his new yee-e-ease haircut, too? That does not help anything. That certainly does not help me. Was it not? Did I get tricked? I don't know. Did I get AIed? I did see it. I just don't know it was real. I don't think I got A ad.

I think it's real, but, you know, I might just be... You keep going. I might be the boomer of the show right now, talking, believing things that aren't real. But anyways, all jokes aside, all, like, negative vibes aside, people are reacting. I've talked about on the show, like, Stroud's not great, but he's a capable starter. Like, he's fine. He's an okay, serviceable quarterback who can support his receivers.

I think the offensive line has been a huge problem, but they've made moves to help fix that disaster, both in free agency as well as the draft, investing first round capital in an offensive lineman. So the situation is getting better. And now let's talk about Jaden Higgins himself and not just the situation he's in. Yeah. He increased from 29 snaps per game over his first five games last year to 42 snaps per game over his last five. So we've already seen the usage increase. We can project that to continue into 2026. We so often see this with rookie receivers. They play very little early on. Then they play more the end of the rookie year. And then

that usage carries over into year two. I project the same for Higgins. And it's not just usage. He showcased the talent last year, even if it didn't always make itself super evident on the stat sheet, which, by the way, he did have a couple huge games last year. But even aside from a couple boom games, among all rookie receivers with at least 25 targets last year, he ranked third in pro football focus receiving grade, fourth in yards per route run, and fifth in passer rating when targeted. So the metrics are there, the talent is there. And this offseason's been great. This, this mini camp the o'ta's multiple texans reporters have come out and said that higgins has been a major standout he's looked the part he's looked like he's ready to take a huge step forward and be a major

part of this offense so my case for him is really simple it's the texans offense as a whole i think will take a step forward compared to what they've been the last couple years i think higgins and his own development will do the same which means he could be in for a breakout and i'll take a step back and say i'm not saying he's going to have like a jsn level breakout of last year where he's going to have this nuclear reckoning and it's you know he's going to break you know break your fantasy league but he's going to be a respectable fantasy starter i think week in and week out and that absolutely constitutes a breakout for jaden higgins in 2026 a thousand percent a breakout doesn't have to mean like you said a jsnsk breakout but we have a guy that we'll talk about a little bit later that we

think could be a little similar um first of all i did my own research the haircuts real i'd cj strout has dropped like 15 spots in my rankings but i'm i'm going to excuse that for a moment That's big of you. You bring up a ton of great points. I continue to harp on the improvements in the offensive line. Kaelin Rutledge, Brayton Smith, Wyatt Teller, all coming in. We expect, despite the haircut, C.J. Stroud to take a step back in the right direction this year. Jaden Higgins last year was by far the second highest in red zone targets.

And you talked about how he came on at the end of the year. A wide receiver one finish in week 17, I want to say. Three touchdowns in each of his last three games. Um, this guy is quietly someone who really came on at the end of the year and isn't getting the fluff and the hype the way a guy like Luther Burden is who really kind of established himself in those last three games of the year. So to me, like this price, like I said, Widerceiver 48. And Dynasty, yep.

Yeah, that, that's just such a phenomenal smash price. And if you can go out and get him at cost, I think he's such a great pickup with such high upside this year. Yeah, I've really talked myself into it. And even if you're not a believer in, this Texans offense, which I am, I believe that they'll bounce back to some extent, believe in the talent of Jaden Higgins. He's too good to truly bust. 100%. Let's jump in right now to our fourth player, but before we do, make sure to hit that like button, subscribe and be notified every time we drop a brand new episode. If you're listening

to us on the player profiler feed on Apple Podcasts or Spotify, make sure to go hit us up and drop us a follow on our own feed. But let's talk about one guy that I think is likely going to break out this year, Mello. And that's Isaiah likely, 25 years old. Price right now is the tight end 12 in Dynasty and Tight End 13 in redraft. That dynasty price has risen a lot. And I still think he's a deal. I've been talking about him since March. Now tied to Jackson Dart, Dan Duggan and the Athletic has already reported that likely has been DART's favorite target in OTAs. From week four when Dart got his first start to week 17 last season, Theo Johnson, a fourth round second year tight end, got 64 targets from Dart.

In comparison, Isaiah likely only got 34 from Mara Jackson, and Mark Andrews got the lion's share with 57 as the starter. Fast forward to this year, Giants go out and pay likely three years, $40 million with incentives up to $47.5. We always say follow the money. Something really interesting, though, we broke down so much about what that means with Dart earlier on the spring. Alex Wilson on Twitter had some really interesting numbers on Isaiah likely, though,

calling him a jumbo slot. I thought this was so cool. In 2025, he played 258 snaps out of the slot, 54.4% slot rate. He had 11.4 yards per catch with 27 catches, 307 yards, on basically just tight end two volume. When we think about the 140 vacated targets from Wondale Robinson, I think everyone's immediately talking about all of those going to Malik neighbors. How about a guy like Isaiah likely who could be lining up in the slot a lot more than people think? And then one of my favorite stats that I talk about in the nine games in his career is the starting tight end without Mark Andrews. Isaiah likely has averaged 3.4 receptions for 50.4 yards and 0.7 touchdowns

a game, which may not sound like a lot, but if you extrapolate it over a 16 game stretch, that would have made Isaiah likely the tight end three last season. And so I think there's incredible value here for a tight end who's shown flashes, the ability to be an elite tight end one, now back with his former head coach, unleashed with a quarterback who makes it a point to keep his tight ends involved. I think, I just talked about Casey Concepcion with this, but like, I don't know, I would move a 2027 second for Isaiah likely. Like, this is a guy who truly his value could skyrocket between now and the end of this year. Yeah, it's a ceiling bet, which he has.

First of all, jumbo slot is dangerously close to being derogatory. It's like a letter away. But we mean it in the best way here at the lineup. He is, it's a good thing. I don't want to slot shame him. No, I would never Slots shame him. He's a great jumbo slot.

I think there's a good chance they move them all around the field, like in line, tight end, out in the slot. I've heard a lot of people saying Theo Johnson is going to eat into a lot of the snaps or the usage. That's nice. They can think that. I'm glad you agree with me,

and I can't wait for someone to play this back and call us dumbasses for not believing in Theo Johnson, but follow the money. and honestly the athletic profile like to me at least everything points to Isaiah likely being the much better asset to own in fantasy even if they're running two tight end sets

like likely is and they're both on the field I think likely is going to be the heavily targeted one I just I don't understand a lot of the Theo Johnson truthers but there's a whole lot of upside there you mentioned the Wondale vacant of targets we don't know how healthy Malik neighbors is and like if you just ask like you're random buddy Joe who like doesn't start following football until like mid-August he probably can't

name a receiver on this roster outside of Malik neighbors there's not a lot of target competition it's every time I'm doing a bestball draft I see darnel mooney with the nyg next to him I just feel like confused like what's he even doing there and then I see odell with the new york giants yeah and I'm like did I step in a time machine what the hell is going on right now yeah this is a historical bestball drafts should invent that We actually should. That actually sounds very fun. All right. Let's jump into our breakout league winning player. Mo, let's talk some DeVant to Smith.

I'm married man, 27 years old, wide receiver 16 in Dynasty, wide receiver 13 in redraft, and finally the wide receiver won in Philadelphia. This is another guy that obviously his price is rising so fast, but it's for a good reason, and I still think there's some value there. Again, first off, congratulations to him on getting married. I think that should count for some fantasy points, but my league's still working on adding that. Yeah, no, we got a, that's like a half a point

the first month of the season or something. Imagine that makes the difference. You miss the playoffs because somebody got a half a point. It would, probably. I first mentioned him as a buy at wide receiver 24 earlier this spring. Like I said, I still think that there's room here for him to, both in dynasty and redraft,

like crush his current price. Talent's always been there. We've already seen Jimmy Kempski report that the Eagles organization thinks he can take a JSN-esque leap, which of course, they're going to say things like that, but the moves they've made have told me that they have confidence in him being the alpha wide receiver one. In games without AJ Brown in the past two seasons, Smithy's averaging seven receptions for 80 yards with a 35.1% target share. We keep harping on it, but Kevin Patool is out of the building. Sean Mannion's in. He comes from the Shanahan coaching tree.

Last season, Devont de Smith was eighth amongst all wide receivers in total EPA. Nathan Janke from PFF had a great write-up on him too about how his roles kind of developed in the last two years and he played a more slot in the last two seasons than in his first three but he showed the most improvement lined up out wide posted a 89.9 pf receiving grade on the perimeter in 2025 with a 25% target share. His grades in the slot have actually deteriorated

and now we look at a guy like Mackay Lemon that I'm expecting to play a lot more slot. But back to the JSN and Devonta comparison, Devonta actually achieved a 2.95 yards per route run when lined up outside last season tied for third best behind JSN and Puka Nakua. So yes, I think Mackay Lemon could cut into the targets a little bit. But I think at least in this first year, Devonta commands at least a 35% target share in a Philly offense that we are so excited for. Yeah, I mean, we've become, I really feel gross about it, but we've become the Philly guys on this podcast. Disgusting.

Like, yeah, I'm going to take a shower in 10 minutes, but we're projecting this offense to take a step forward. Like, the offensive line was hurt, Matt's fixed. You mentioned A.J. Brown gone giving Devonta Smith the ability to become a true alpha. And you talk about the receptions and the yards he gets without A.J. Brown. Just targets alone, if you exclude Week 18 games the last couple years because the Eagles haven't played their starters in those games. Right. Smith has averaged 9.67 targets per game when A.J. Brown is an active. he joined the team. I mean, he is a target hog. And yes, Mackay Lemon, like, we like him a lot. We're lemonheads. We're Lemonheads. We're huge Lemonheads. But at least in 2026, as a rookie, Lemon's not

going to command a ton of targets or the involvement that AJ Brown did. So this is really going to be the Devontas Smith show, I think, here in 2026. We're on a trajectory where I think this will be the best year of his career. And I think a lot of people are projecting that rightfully so. That almost feels like the floor to say it's going to be the best year of his career. And from, from like a price retention perspective, like, I just think if you invest, what is it, a wire receiver 16 price right now in Dynasty, I have a very hard time seeing us going into next year with that price falling. Like, it would need to be a more catastrophic year in Philadelphia. Like, we talked about, oh my God, what a disaster last year. And A.J. Brown was still the wide receiver 11. Yeah.

You're telling me, DeVantza Smith can't pay that off. I think that's silly. I agree. That's why I took him in the startup that we're both in. Mitch, I'm sure you're... You took him and lad. I know. I was sniping all of Mitch's guys. Oh, God, I'm so excited for Devontas Smith. Whatever. Those are our five breakout players heading into the 2026 fantasy football season. If we missed anyone that you are really high on and think could be this year's biggest breakout, let us know down below. We would love to chop it up with you guys. And Mello, before we get out of here, we miss anything? I'm good. All right, we'll catch you guys next episode.