Lineup Fantasy Football Show - DON'T DRAFT These 5 Players in 2026 Fantasy Football

Episode Date: April 6, 2026

We break down 5 players that are being overvalued for 2026 Fantasy Football and Dynasty Fantasy Football that could be busts and are on our do not draft list 0:49 - Tee Higgins 5:24 - Luther Burden III 9:43 - Davante Adams 13:22 - Rashee Rice 17:15 - Jonathan Taylor Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Today, we're identifying five players primed to underperform in 2026, including one guy that could lose you your league if you draft them. Welcome into the lineup fantasy football show. I'm Mitch Anderson. I'm Justin Mello. And we do not want to waste anybody's time. So Mello, let's jump into things with your first bust for 2026. I'm going to talk about a player I love. This hurts me. I'm not happy to call this guy a best. I kind of feel like all of these hurt me a little bit because I like most of these guys. Yeah, that's same here too. It's always fun to hate a player just like emotionally and want to root against them. That's not this list, though.

These are guys we like, but we don't like from a draft capital perspective. I actually hate one guy on this list, so I'll have fun there. Oh, okay. I can't wait to hear who that is and why. But this guy don't hate, and that is T. Higgins of the Cincinnati Bengals. He's great. I love T. Great receiver.

But he stays overpriced almost every year in fantasy. He is one guy that I think his ADP is too high just about every single year. And right now, at least 2026 is no exception. He's getting drafted as the wide receiver 15 right now. Mitch, can you please ask me how many times T. Higgins has finished as a top 15 fantasy receiver in his career? Mello, how many times is T. Higgins finished as a top 15 fantasy wide receiver in his career? Oh, thank you for asking.

Just one time in his six-year career. Oh, really? Just one time. It was last year. Now with that in mind, can you please ask me where exactly he finished last year? Last year might be the weirder part of that answer, actually. Sorry, repeat the question. I'll ask myself, it's fine.

Where did he finish last year? He finished as the wide receiver 15. So his one top 15 finish was 15 just last year, which you're right. It is kind of weird happened last year. But we're basically drafting him at his ceiling based on that six-year sample. size, a pretty sizable sample. In fact, he has not outperformed his ADP relative to his position since 2021 when he was the wide receiver 22. Yet we still have him ranked top 15 almost every single year. Even last year, he was going as the wide receiver 12, didn't hit on his ADP as the wide receiver

15. The biggest concern for me is that he plays second fiddle to debatably the best wide receiver in the league, my favorite fantasy wide receiver at least in Shamar Chase. and yes, I know the Cincinnati Bengals, the pie is big enough that an incredible receiver like T. Higgins can get a nice big slice, even if it isn't the biggest, and still put up good numbers. But to get the upside of like a top 10 guy, you really need a historically good offense to support two top 10 receivers. Yeah. That's just not something I want to bet on. I know the defense is bad. I think they'll continue to be bad, quite frankly. But just from a statistical probability standpoint, it's probably unlikely they'll be as bad as they have been in the last couple years,

just because it's hard to continuously be that bad. And they have made moves in this free agency period, Jonathan Allen, Boye-Maffei, Brian Cook. So they are addressing it. They'll likely continue to do so in the draft. I don't want to bet on the Bengals being in shootouts every single week where Joe Burrow has to throw the ball 60 times. That's just not what I want to bet on. Also worth noting T. Higgins was second in the NFL and receiving touchdowns last year

among all wide receivers. He had 11. there's some touchdown regression potential there. I know he is a red zone guy. He'll still get touchdowns. I'm not saying he won't. It's just any time you finish second, you're obviously a regression candidate.

And this is somebody you have to spend, what, a third, fourth round pick on. That's not really something I want to do. All that, not to mention, he hasn't played a full season since 22, really struggles to stay on the field. All that combined, he seems like one of the most obvious fades

to me going into next year. He's such an interesting guy that you kind of zoom out and you're so right of like, why are we drafting T. Higgins this high? And I think it's two things. I think one is just he's incredibly talented. Like, and I think we just want to believe he's in this Bengals offense and he's so talented. And Joe Burrough is a pocket passer and that, you know, there's so much to go around. And so he should be propped up that high. But like you said, you need a historic offense to support two guys at that level.

And Jammar Chase is more than a normal wide receiver one. The other part of it, I think, might just be the best ballification of everything in which we're trying to grab stacks. And so, you know, Jamar Chase is valuable and Joe Burrow is valuable. And therefore, T. Higgins should be valuable too. But the numbers don't lie. And I think that's a fantastic argument against T. Higgins in 2026. Yeah. And I love T.

Like I said, it hurts. I think I'm enamored with him the same way a lot of people are because it's the Bengals and there's fun and they kind of have that magic to them. But year after year, it's kind of the same story. even last year, when he had his best year, his best finish ever, we're still going into this next offseason with him overpriced. Yeah, there's that too of like, I think the Bengals are so fun from a fantasy perspective that if you can't afford to get the, uh, not Joe Burrow,

the Jamar Chase piece, that you're like, well, this is the closest thing. Right. But is it? Not close enough in my mind. Yeah. Uh, before we jump into my first guy, make sure to hit that like button if you're enjoying the video and hit the subscribe button if you want to check out any more content from us

moving forward. You might not after my next pick. I'm about to talk about everyone's off-season darling. Oh, no. Luther Burden III. Mello, people are not going to be happy about this. They're not. They're going to hate you. I know. When I started digging in, I didn't like myself either. I'm someone who's talked about this being a big year for Caleb Williams, and I obviously expect Luther Burton to take a step up with him. Like, I don't think Caleb Williams can like ascend more without bringing his pass catchers along the way. But a wide receiver 20 price tag in redraft is out of control. We are letting the hype go crazy after the DJ Moore trade.

I loved Luther Burton's talent and honestly had that trade not happened, I think he would have been like maybe a smash pickup. But you're drafting a guy who finished outside of the top 24 receivers in all but two games last year and finishes the wide receiver 48. And I actually think this situation is eerily reminiscent of the top 24 receivers in 24 bears with rookie Caleb Williams and Roma Dunesay, Keenan Allen, and DJ Moore, all getting drafted in the first, I want to say, seven rounds. And it was just like the odds are that these guys are not all going to be able to pay off their price tag in the same offense. I mentioned

Luther Burton had had two top 24 weeks last season. Both of them came while Roma Dunezay was injured. And I do feel like it just doesn't have a path to paying off at Y Receiver 20. I'm mad. And let me let me tell you. you I'm mad. I'm not mad that you said Luther Burden. I'm mad that we've gotten to this point because early, early offseason. I was so excited. I wanted him to be like one of my guys. And now he's, it's like, you're like into a girl, but then all the other dudes like her and she's giving them the attention and you're like, I don't, I don't want her anymore. That's Luther Burden for me. Because I I wanted him to be a value next year that I snatched up in so many drafts. And you're right, we're getting a little

bit out of hand. He's everybody's favorite receiver going into next year. I think it's going to keep going up too. He's at wide receiver 20 now. We have this tendency to elevate those year two receivers too high. The hype he's getting, I think it's going to go up and up and up to the point where it really gets out of hand. And this is something interesting for you. You mentioned the ADP going up after the DJ Moore trade. Did you know Colston Lublin's ADP has actually slipped a little bit since DJ Moore was dealt? No, I didn't know that. Make that make that make that make sense to me. So I think that alone is probably an indication that we are infleading burden too much because we're giving him all of those targets and then taking some away from Colston Loveland if we're

letting his ADP fall. It just doesn't make any sense to me. Yeah, and thank you for saying that. I meant to finish my point with that, that it was Roma Dunezay, Keen Allen, and DJ Moore in 2024. And now we're doing the same thing with Roma Dunzee Luther Burden and Colson Loveland. And we're both really high on Colson Loveland. I'm expecting a really big year from him. And maybe that's where part of this is coming from is like the pie's only so big. And I honestly wanted to talk about Roma Dunzee here. And I dug in and I was like, I don't have an argument.

He actually reminds me a lot of a Mecca Abuka last season where he was so unbelievable at the beginning. And then he kind of trailed off. And so people are like kind of soured on him. But he did not trail off nearly as aggressively as Abuka. he actually had a few top 24 weeks down the stretch. So Roma Dunezay to me is another guy that I expect to come back into his offense. I was coming off of the foot injury,

but I expect him to reclaim his role that he had, potentially even bigger with D.J. Morgan. I expect Colson Loveland to level up. And I expect Luther Burden to as well. I just don't expect it to be this much that you're paying for. Yeah, and I'm glad you mentioned that foot injury too for Dunezay because I think that played a role in the back half of the season. production not being there. He didn't even play every game. So, I mean, full disclosure, I like

Luther Borden more than Roma Dunezay, but we're getting to the point where we're treating a Dunezay like he's the clear number one in this offense, and we don't know that yet. All right, I think we're hating on all the receivers today, Mitch, because I have another wide receiver here for you. Oh, man. This one hurts me even more, actually, because this is a guy I love, helped me get to a dynasty championship last year, helped me win it. That is veteran receiver, Devante Adams. Future Hall of Famer, like I said, another guy I love. But the more I dig in and the more I think about it, I think he is one of the most glaring red flag bus candidate

of the 2026 season right now. He's currently going as the wide receiver 17, which is actually eight spots lower than he finished last year. So I guess that's good. But I still don't think it's enough. He is 33 years old. And stuff like that hamstring injury he had late last year, that should really start to scare you for somebody who was 33 years old.

He missed time because of it. Those are the types of injuries that don't really go away once you hit a certain age. And this really terrified me. There were very credible reports from very credible people in the NFL that the Rams considered trading away Devante Adams if they could have landed A.J. Brown. The fact that they were interested in giving away D.N.F.L.E. Capital to take on a veteran receiver with some injury concerns, to replace Devante Adams should speak a lot about how the Rams viewed Devonte Adams' health and his future outlook,

his longevity. That is terrifying to me. And then like I talked about with T. Higgins, touchdown regression. DeBonte Adams obviously is not going to score 14 touchdowns again next year. That is just not repeatable. 14 touchdowns led the NFL. The Rams' offense as a whole, especially their passing offense, huge regression candidate. They're not going to throw nearly as many touchdowns next year. I think Devante Adams will take the biggest hit from that. And then especially the fact that he's the number two in the offense, like we talked about with T. Higgins,

that doesn't make me feel good about the volume either, that he's kind of playing second fatal to Pook and Akua. So at the end of the day, you have a 33-year-old wide receiver, hamstring issues, lower volume to begin with, now is going to have touchdown regression, number two receiver, yet he's going in like the fourth round. I don't like that at all. That is a huge stay away for me. 33 with hamstring issues is scary because I'm 28 and if I pull a hammie in my orange theory class, I'm about the same for another three weeks. What's really interesting about this is

we actually got a comment today about number two receivers and offenses. It's so interesting how many were drafting within the top 24. I think Devonta Smith goes just outside of there, but like, for the sake of this argument, like, Devonta Smith, George Pickens, T. Higgins, Devante Adams, all getting drafted in the top 24 receivers is really crazy. I think this is a great call-out. Touchdown regression. I almost think James Cook this year just absolutely fucked everyone's brains, and no one will pause. Jesus.

Cool. Everyone now is like, oh, touchdown regression isn't a thing because James Cook went and did that. I'm like, I don't think it's realistic to say that DeMonte Adams is going to score another 14 touchdowns and you get what like nine of them within the five yard line. So I agree with you. It's like, yes, it's being priced in a little bit. He is the wide receiver 17 after finishing as the wide receiver 9. But like, Father Time catches up with all of us a little bit. And it was already a bit of a statistical anomaly what got him to the wide receiver 9.

And I think this is a great, great spot for regression. Yeah. It saddens me a lot, but I just feel like there's so much working against him. It cannot be ignored. Yeah. Let me jump into my second player. This is the guy I don't like. Let's talk about Rishi Rice, priced currently as the wide receiver 12 in redraft.

I'm going to start off with my first concern. I don't think Patrick Mooms is a good buy either for 2026 specifically. I talked about I'm in Dynasty. That's completely different. I think the fantasy community is agreeing. because we're starting to see Mahomes slip as well. Mahomes slipped like here in the spring down to around like the quarterback 13. My first concern with that is just like Mahomes utilizes mobility so much.

He was actually running a lot last year before he got hurt, but just the way he moves in the pocket. Like that's very important. He tore his ACL in week 15. I think he should be back for week one. But I just, I have concerns that it's not going to be perfect and he's not going to come back 100%. And, you know, a lot of those fantasy points come from that Mahomes magic.

and extending plays. So that's my first concern. My second concern is now you're bringing in Kenneth Walker. We have not seen a real living running back in the Kansas City offense in a few years. And I think Ken Walker got brought in because the team is going to try having a new identity and this kind of new era, hopefully for them, Dynasty 2.0. And the approach with the offense might lean a little bit more on the running game and not force Mahomes and his past catchers to play Superman every game.

So both of those concerns. you raise the thing, which I don't love talking about this because I like to keep this into on-the-field concerns, but you have to talk about it with Rishi Rice every single week. There's something new in the news and none of it's good. So I think he's a really high upside pick. We saw it the year he got hurt. We saw it a little bit last year. Like, he can be incredible. He can be a high-volume guy. But I just think that the floor is so, so low on what you might get from Rishie-Rice that I'm not willing to pay the Wider Shemer 12 price sag. I hear you.

As somebody who, as you know, has been very bullish on Rishner Rice. Yeah, I was like, I think this one might get a little, uh, this is our biggest point of contention for sure. But I will admit, even though I'm still in. I will say that. So I guess we do disagree there. But I'm getting nervous. The off-the-field stuff you mentioned won't get too much into it.

It's just not a good look. It just obviously the real-life implications are bigger than the football. But from a football standpoint, you're always worrying he's going to get suspended. And that is not a good thing to have to worry about. Obviously, Mahomes with the ACL, we'll see how that develops. My personal stance on Rishi Rice is if he is healthy in playing, which unfortunately is an if because of the other stuff we talked about. And if Mahomes is healthy, which again is an if because of the ACL tear, I probably would take

him as the wide receiver five or six off the board, easily and be very, very excited about it. So if people are really scared and he's falling much further than that, I view him as a value. But because of everything you've laid out, which I will acknowledge is very real, there is a super low floor and there is a lot of risk associated. So I don't blame you for getting cold feet. I don't know if there's a player that we are further apart on in fantasy football than where she race. We got to figure out who else there is and we got to do like an episode where it's just like old school first take, just just like screaming at each other, disagreeing. Because Rishi Rice is probably the guy at the top of that list right now.

We got to fight who the other guys are. Yeah. I love it. Do I jump into our league loser? Let's do it. I'm trying to think of a good name for this, like opposite of league winner. And I'm like, I don't want to call this guy a loser. Loser, idiot. This one sucks. You know, you've known me for years. and I have been such a fan of this guy, and it pains me so much to bring him up for this. But I think the guy that you might draft that could lose you your league is Jonathan Taylor. Since 2015, players who log 300 or more carries in the previous year

hit on their ADP 29% of the time, and on average finish 13 positional ranks lower than their ADP. In this case, as the RB4, that would drop Taylor to the same. the RB-17 on average. Taylor logged 323 carries in 2025. The most recent example of a running back who logged 300 or more carries was Sequin Barclay, the year prior, who was the RB2 off the board and finished as the RB-13. The reason why this many carries is such an issue is there's a combination of obvious injury risk that comes with that, but we also talked a lot in our hindsight episode earlier this spring that there's an efficiency issue too.

This carries sounds so innocent. Like, oh, he's carrying the ball 300 times. Jonathan Taylor got hit 300 times last year. That has wear and tear on a player and it can affect their efficiency the next year. Jonathan Taylor also had the highest rushing touchdown rate per touch in the NFL of all starting running backs at 5.57%, which we talked about James Cook a little bit earlier.

I won't get into it. I won't be crass again. but that is likely to regress. The difference to me between Jonathan Taylor and James Cook is that we all kind of made a decision to make a bet against the Bill's offense last year, which is never a good idea. I don't feel as weird about betting against a Colts offense

that just lost Michael Pittman and has Daniel Jones returning from a torn Achilles. All this to say, I don't think this is a Sequin Barkley level falloff for Jonathan Taylor, but I do think it's absolutely in the range of outcomes that you're spending a top pick on a guy that's got like a serious, serious uphill battle to get even close to paying it off.

We are sadly aligned here because I do also like Jonathan Taylor a lot, but there are too many red flags for me. You hit on all of them. Ton of carries last year, huge touchdown regression candidate. The Colts offense being far from reliable or trustworthy. We don't know about the health of Daniel Jones or even when he is ready to go, how good he'll be because it was just such a small sample last year where that offense was clicking. So I'm scared. Seems like there's a lot of risk. And if you want a really interesting

historical example of what Jonathan Taylor could be next year, just look at what Jonathan Taylor was a few years ago. In 2021, he led the league in carries with over 300, just like this year, or this past year. In 2021, he also led the league in touchdowns with 20, exactly how many he had in 2025. And then he went into 2022 with quarterback concerns and ambiguity around the offense as a whole. But we still dropped to them in the first round the next year in 2022. He actually was going first overall in some leagues. That's eerily similar to right now. All of that, that situation is super similar to this offseason. And how he actually finished in 2022 was outside of the top 30 running backs, didn't get back inside the top 30 until 2024, and didn't hit on his

ADP again until 2025, just this last year. So history could repeat itself here, and you could be in for another massive disappointment with Jonathan Taylor. Yeah, this stinks. It stinks to lay all this out. And he's just, he's on my do not draft list unless we see a lot of movement this offseason. But I don't expect there to be. He won people leagues last year. And he has, had, we talked about with Camp Scataboo last episode, like, he had the big moments on prime time. He had the London, I figured if it was London or Germany game that he absolutely exploded. Like, Jonathan Taylor is a guy that everyone is very understandably excited about. And when you're really excited about a player, that's when it's the hardest to see those red flags.

Yeah, I think that's, I think there's like the, the bow, I can't believe this is a bojack horseman quote, but it's like when you wear rose-colored glasses, red flags just look like flags. That's Jonathan Taylor. I think the biggest problem is he's just going to, like I think Bijan, Jamir, CMC at the top, particularly Bijan and Jamir, there's not a big enough drop-off in rankings or an ADP to Jonathan Taylor, who's that next guy. The gap isn't big enough. It should be bigger in how we're drafting them.

Yeah. And I don't know if you mentioned this. I forget, but like, it, there was all those incredible explosive games, but like it wasn't all pretty down the stretch. You didn't get like the Jonathan Taylor of the first half. And I kind of feel like we're all as a community kind of ignoring that part of things and looking at like the whole body of work rather than like how it got there. Yeah, with the offense stalled out because Daniel Jones went down like,

it was not the same for anyone, including Jonathan Taylor. I know Daniel Jones is still there, but we'll see how he's doing health-wise. and we'll see if this offense can pick up where they left off. Well, that is it for our 2026 fantasy football busts. If you agree with any of our picks, let's know down below. If you disagree with any of our picks, also let us know down below. Make sure to follow us on all our socials and also listen on Spotify, Apple, and everywhere else you get your podcasts. Mello, we miss anything?

Nothing for me, my man. All right, we will catch you guys next episode.