Lineup Fantasy Football Show - NFL Divisional Round Predictions

Episode Date: January 15, 2026

The divisional round of the NFL Playoffs is here! Mitch and Mello discuss lessons learned from the 2025 NFL Fantasy Football season, then break down every game of this weekend's NFL Divisional slate. Then we wrap up by setting the line on PPR points for some of the NFL Divisional Round's biggest names Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

All right, welcome into the lineup fantasy football show. I'm Mitch Anderson. I'm Justin Mello. And make sure to drop a like and comment down below what game you are most excited to watch this weekend. We are going to be jumping into every single divisional round game. And we're also going to be touching on a few of the guys that underperformed relative to ADP this season. So without further ado Mello, let's jump into hindsight's 2025. All right, I'm going to let you jump in here first.

I see you have somebody written down that I actually almost took, but this guy hits a little closer to home for you, so I figure I'd let you have him. Yeah, I appreciate that. Or actually, you know what? I don't appreciate you making me relive this. As you know, I took this player in the first round of the league we're in together.

And I think a lot of people probably are in a similar boat where this is not only a frustrating guy who missed, but it's really sad that he missed. And it's Justin Jefferson, one of the most electric, fun players in the league, one of the most elite receivers in the league. I was the sucker. I took him in the first.

took him, I think he fell to me at like eighth overall. I couldn't resist. Our league mates wisely passed on him and I wish I did the same. What's crazy is, yes, of course, he finishes the wide receiver 25, despite getting drafted as a wide receiver two. He played in all 17 games this year, which makes it almost unbelievable that he finished as the wide receiver 25 despite all that talent. I mean, truly in the upper echelon of the upper echelon of receivers. He's proven it year and year out. He's still young.

He's still got Kevin O'Connell as his play caller. Everything felt great, except for maybe one little minor concern going into the year. And that little minor concern became the most grangentuan reason for this catastrophe, which is J.J. McCarthy, aka 9, total shit show, total disaster. Couldn't have gone any worse with the quarterback play. the best stretch of Jefferson's season was when he was playing with Carson Wensh,

which just speaks volumes to how bad the quarterback play was in Minnesota. So definitely disappointment. And I think my major takeaway as someone who drafted him was we were kind of drafting him at his ceiling from a quarterback play perspective. Because last year, Justin Jefferson finished as the wide receiver two. And that was with Sam Darnold playing incredible. So we still had that ambiguous situation at quarterback where there was uncertainty. We didn't feel good about it last year.

And it worked out. And I think a lot of people, myself included, just kind of said, well, Justin Jefferson's just that good. He should be the wide receiver two again, even with a new quarterback. We saw it happen last year. When in reality, that's probably more than anything reflection of how disrespectful we were towards Sam Darnold, especially looking at what he did with the Seahawks this year. So to sort of sum it all up, situation. matters, situation matters, like, no shit. We talk about that all the time. Everyone knows that.

And then just one other thing I want to throw out there is just we talk about ambiguity as well and how that can actually lead to a lot of fantasy success. And that's totally true. But not when you're taking a player in the first round. You do not want any ambiguity with your first round pick. So that's something to keep in mind. I do think Jefferson could actually end up being a by low next year and I'm super ready to get hurt again because I believe in buying the dip on. talented players. But I do have that voice in the back of my head that I'm going to try to keep there, reminding myself that at least for the time being he's got J.J. McCarthy,

and just in general with these talented receivers, anytime there's a quarterback change, you really, really have to bake that into your analysis. Just to give you a little preview into next season, right now Jefferson Slated as the wide receiver 7. Just to piggyback off of everything you said, I think the most overused phrase to talk about Justin Jefferson over the offseason was QB proof. I said it so many times. Yeah, I think that's my big takeaway from the whole situation.

Like you said is we were like, oh, he's QB proof. He did all this with Sam Darnold. And it's like, well, maybe Sam Darnold wasn't as bad as we were all making him out to be. Look at what he just did with JSN. I know it slowed down a bit down the stretch. But I think that's going to be the big thing I take away from this is nobody's truly QB proof.

Once nine steps in the building, anything's possible. unfortunately. I'm going to go to another receiver. This guy wasn't that disappointing. Brian Thomas Jr. ADP of wide receiver 8 and he finishes the wide receiver 44. I think this was like just the most obvious starting point. I kind of feel like what I did with Giovante Williams last week

where it's like, let's just get this guy out of the way and talk about him. So much excitement. He finished the 2024 season as the wide receiver 4. And a lot of people thought he was either primed to continue or even level up. And imagine if you told Brian Thomas Jr. drafters, in August. Hey, by the way, Trevor Lawrence is going to be the QB4 on the season. You would be fucking popping champagne. You would be just spending the money already. Like, you won the league. And of course, that has not been the case at all.

I want to say this. I don't think Brian Thomas Jr. is not talented. What I do think is that there was a mental aspect to this. Something definitely did not seem right about him. I think we saw early on this season. He was bracing early for hits. He was making these weird drops that seemed more mental than physical. And I think part of that is a lot changed over the off season. You had a new coaching staff. You brought in Liam Cohen. You drafted a wide receiver that you gave up a ton of capital to go pick up at number two and Travis Hunter.

And whatever Liam Cohen did with this team clearly worked all season, but I don't think it clicked with Brian Thomas. When we're taking a guy that high and you're assuming a lot of risk with these second year guys, we're always thinking about the upside, but I don't think we're thinking about the fact that you're working off of a one-year sample size. And when you make that much of a change over the offseason, new coach, new offensive system, bringing in a guy, which I know we got drafted at two because he's got the wide receiver cornerback combination, but like it was obvious Travis Hunter was going to work in. And we were kind of just drafting Brian Thomas, like none of that could be a bad thing.

Like all of it would either be a good thing or like a lateral change. And so for me, as I look at these year two wide receivers, we've talked a little bit about some of the rookies and what they're going to look like next year. It's going to be important to look at how that wide receiver room changes over the off season and not to discount things too much and say, well, whatever, because he was so good. I completely agree with your analysis.

I think, like you mentioned, with the year two receiver thing, we've kind of become obsessed with it in the fantasy community, like these year two receivers, the second half of the year breakouts. I get it. Like, I've been there. You see what these guys do at the end of their rookie years and you become so fixated on them to have a full year of a full breakout. But we inflate those ADPs so much sometimes that you're right, we don't think about the floor. We don't think about what could go wrong. And in the case of Brian Thomas, it was just about everything. The risk is there. And when we're watching these rookie receivers, like, we have to take into account the fact that, like, you're not

always just going to get better. That is quite literally, the perfect segue to this next guy I want to talk about Mitch. And I'm really going to enjoy this one. I almost didn't do it because we've, we joked about it for a couple episodes and we haven't really gone all in yet. I'm going to go all in. I am ready to rip on Marvin Harrison, Jr. with everything I have.

I actually, like, hate him more than I should. He hasn't really done me dirty or screwed me over, like a lot of people. But I don't know if it's the nepotism or what it is. I just hate, I hate watching him play football. I truly despise him. So let's talk about Marvin Harrison, Jr. Another one of these year two receivers. He finished as the wide receiver 49, got drafted as the wide receiver 18.

Obviously, the injuries did play a role in that, admittedly. He did play 12 games, though. And in those 12 games, he averaged only 3.4 receptions per game and 50.7 yards per game, only scoring four touchdowns on the year. So very underwhelming to say the least. I'm going to completely piggyback off. the Brian Thomas analysis, it's the second year receivers again. We always fixate on them, think that they are the best values that they're going to hit on their ADPs when in fact,

that is not always true. In fact, from 2021 to 2025, there have been 11 second year receivers going in the top 50 of drafts. Only two of them out of the 11 have hit on their ADPs, including none of the four this year, which obviously the second year class was super disappointing. And then also to make it a little bit more specific about Marvin Harrison because I just need to insult him before I can stop talking. He just looked horrible as a rookie. He looked so slow. He did not create any separation. Like, whenever I watched Cardinals games, I was like, man, like this is supposed to be a generational prospect.

And he just doesn't look good. Like he's not getting separation. He's not making the contested catches you really saw him make it Ohio State. And it didn't feel like anything changed going into this year. I know like people are probably screaming right now. Like, oh, probably put on 15 pounds of muscle. He got swollen. He got yolk.

He's going to be so sick. Like, contrary to popular belief, muscle does not help you run faster. It does not help you get open. Like, that didn't do anything for him. So take away here. I know we've harped on it. Don't just blindly follow these trends. Like, take a second year receiver who could break out.

And also, like, trust your eyes. Trust what you see. Yeah. And if you don't think a player is talented, even if it's supposed to be a generational prospect like Marvin Harrison Jr., don't draft them, especially if the production has not been there. This is a fantastic point that Marvin Harrison Jr. may have done more damage the PR for Nepo Babies than anybody in the history of the world.

Yeah, 100%. If Malik neighbor's name was Marvin Harrison, Jr., he might have gone first overall. Yeah, absolutely. This is just such a point to make about name value and eye test. And even underlying metrics. It's not that any stats from Marvin Harrison Jr. last year were that good. And of course, confirmation bias comes in.

You can find stats that will make Marvin Harrison look good if you want to feel good about the fact that you just spent a second round pick on him. But nothing was telling you from eyes to data to anything that Marvin Harrison Jr. was going to produce this year. And we were still drafting him there. I still drafted him there. because I'm like, well, yeah, the talent, the fourth overall pick, and, you know, Ohio State, he was a beast. And it's like, maybe it just wasn't there,

and maybe it still isn't going to be there in 2026. Couldn't have said it better myself. I'm going to move into a guy who had a lot of promise this year. In fact, he was getting drafted as the third overall pick and the running back two, only to finish as the running back 14. That is Mr. Sequin Barkley from the Philadelphia Eagles. Just before we started recording this,

it's Tuesday. Kevin Petula was fired. I'm not going to get into the coaching stuff. I've talked about that in a few straight episodes that I think they're a disaster and they needed to clean house. They're already doing it. So credit to the Eagles. What I'm going to talk about is kind of the argument that everyone got into before the

season if you were anti-Saquin, but I'm going to take it from a different angle. The usage. He had 482 total touches in the 2024 season, obviously going all the way through the Super Bowl. And the big concern there was, okay, well, now he's either. going to get hurt because a lot of players that come off of that many touches, even way less. It was like 400 plus touches. The odds you were going to get hurt were crazy. Or they're going to spell him.

They went out and they grabbed like Tank Biggsby early in the season. It was like, okay, are they going to be working him in? Is Will Shipley going to get more involved? And those were the concerns with Sequin. The concern I didn't hear that much about was just the fact that he was 28 coming off of 482 carries and like, is he going to be as efficient? So I dug into that a little bit. The funny part about it is in the regular season, he actually only had 28 less touches this season than in 2024, but his efficiency dropped from 5.8 yards per carry to 4.1.

And now I know obviously they've had offensive line injuries and Lane Johnson and like there's other aspects to that. But that is a dramatic, dramatic drop from one of the most effective running games in the NFL last year. So here's my hindsight. When you see a running back who's been leaned on so heavily the year before, don't just concern your sense. with the injury risk in terms of roster construction. Also concern yourself with the potential drop in efficiency. And as I look to next year, I think a lot of these guys, it's going to be hard until we get closer to the beginning of next season and really no situations.

But I've got Jonathan Taylor circled. Jonathan Taylor led the NFL this year in touches. And fortunately for him, I'm sure he wouldn't think this is fortunate, but the Colts did not make the playoffs. And so he does get a little bit of a breather here. But you're going to have a weird QB situation. next year, Daniel Jones will not be back for week one. Jonathan Taylor, most carries in the NFL.

I had Bejohn Robinson in this group too. Bejohn's so young and he actually did have about 40, 50 less carries. So I'm not saying don't draft guys in this situation, but don't draft them to repeat what they did. Saquan was never going to repeat as the RB2. And I think most people knew that. I think they were just kind of hoping he'd have a floor at four or five. But when you come off of this many carries, it's really tough in a very physical

league to come back the next year and do the same thing. Yeah, and I'm glad you brought up Jonathan Taylor. That's kind of the guy I was thinking of as well as soon as you mentioned. Breaks my heart too, because he's awesome. He is awesome. He's incredible. But you're right, from a fantasy perspective, it probably is a good thing he missed the playoffs. What about a guy like James Cook, who also had a ton of usage this year, could potentially win another playoff game or two go deep into the playoffs. How are we feeling about him? I had it. I was between bringing up him and Jonathan Taylor. I'm may be a little worried. I think the other reason

I was hesitant is because James Cook was a fade for me because I fell for the whole touchdown regression narrative before the season. So I'm not going to trash on James Cook. The third guy I actually had in the conversation was Christian McCaffrey, but I will be damned if I ever talk bad about Christian McCaffrey again. It's really just the flip

of a coin, whether or not he gets hurt and I guess this year the efficiency still wasn't there, but I mean the volume, especially in the passing game was so good. It didn't matter. Right. But you're right. James Cook was somebody we talked about with touchdown regression. He is one of the rare instances where it was repeatable, but it typically is not.

And that is the case for this next player I want to talk about. And that's Mark Andrews. I think, I mean, obviously this whole segment is about hindsight. Truly looking at it from a hindsight lens, I think Mark Andrews is maybe the most obvious bust going into this year that no one like was willing to accept. Not that he was going all that high. He was going as the tight end seven toward the middle of drafts,

finish as the tight end 16. Not a huge difference there necessarily, but if you're in a one tight end league, the tight end 16 does absolutely nothing for you, just completely unstartable. And he was this year. He was unstartable. Last season, he was the tight end five.

After finishing strong, down the stretch, he was very, very good. But that was completely a facade. It was the fakedest titan five finish. in the history of top five tight end finishes and fantasy football. It was super dependent on touchdowns. He had 11 touchdowns from week 5 on last year, including at least one touchdown in all six of his last six games,

truly not repeatable. And over that same stretch, I'm sorry, the whole year, actually, he only had 55 receptions. So for those of you doing the math, that's a touchdown every five catches. That is ridiculous. And I know there are some guys who are just true red zone threats and that's part of their game.

And that's largely true for Mark Andrews as well. But these are numbers that aren't even close to repeatable year over year. He only had 3.2 receptions per game last year. Very, very low volume. And like I said, just not repeatable. And the last thing I'll hit on with Mark Andrews too is he showed clear signs of decline last year. we were very used to him being one of the most elite receiving tight ends in the NFL, great fantasy asset.

Regardless of what his finish was last year, I think most people would agree that he clearly lost a step last year. And for somebody his age going on 30 years old, we should not be betting on that. Tight ends, or really any player for that matter, don't have just a down year and then it gets better from there. Unless there's some sort of weird injury they're coming back from, which I know Andrews had like whole car crash and everything last year. It was kind of weird. But like, he, he wasn't like recovering from a serious injury or anything. We really should have invested more in the fact that he looked like he was declining, which we didn't. So again, don't bet on touchdowns. They're not a sticky stat year over year. And also, once these older players start to slip,

really buy into that and believe it that it's not going to get better. Mark Andrews is the perfect. Like, if you had him in 2024, you felt it in that first half and you knew not to go back and I think he was like if you didn't have him and you just looked at wow he finished tight end five and like you could see the promise like it made sense

I think this is a great one and I'm glad you went a little bit deeper in the well for this one we've been doing a lot of like first second round picks um there and so I think this is a fantastic pick I think what you said about when you start to see the decline with an older player the odds that it gets better is the outlier

sure you can pick out a Christian McCaffrey that came back to life this year and that's the outlier that's not the rule that's going to happen here and so I think that was a great pick yeah thank you very much and I think you're completely right I think people who had him in 2024 probably realized but you're right you just see that tight end five and you're like okay we'll bump him down to tight end seven he's a couple years older we're drafted him at seven like I'm getting a steel here yeah definitely not the case I think we've all been in a fantasy draft or we're getting

a little late and we're like oh fuck we have not drafted a tight end, have we? There's Mark Andrews sitting there, tight end seven. He was great for me in 2021. Why not? Yeah. Yeah. Let me get into my last one. Another guy that I'm going to go a little bit deeper in the well for, one that I felt this year, and I got hit by. Let's talk about Chuba Hubbard. Drafted an ADP of RB19 finishes the RB 37. The reason a lot of people, including myself, were pretty high on him going in at his value, was he finished last year as the RB12. I went back for this hindsight to try to find some like underlying metrics, expected fantasy points, expected rushing yards. I couldn't find anything. Everything on paper said that Chuba Hubbard probably was going to be pretty good this year.

So let me look at this from a roster construction perspective. I think he is a cautionary tale about zero RB drafters and how fragile this range of running back can be. just because he was great last year, if you're not an elite elite running back, these systems are so volatile. And none of us were that threatened by Rico Dowdle over the off season. He signed a one year, I think it was $2.75 million,

and like 60, 70% of that was incentive-based. So I was a big time follow the money guy. Chuba Hubbard got his contract last November. RICO Dowell was not getting paid much. But when you look at the circumstances of what was going on here in Carolina, and this is a big year for Bryce Young. I think they were trying to finally figure out like prove it year. Is he the guy? They bring in Tet McMillan. There's clearly a lot more emphasis on the passing game. That could have been a first warning. Then of course, they do bring in Rico

Dowdell and I discounted it because of the money, but realistically, that was another guy that could be taking touches away from Chuba. So does that mean you don't draft Chuba Hubbard here? Maybe, maybe not. But to me, what this says is when you're going after a guy in this range, I think you need to to be prepared to like double tap, excuse me, or triple tap running back, because the odds that a guy like this after the first 10 to 15 running backs that he might fail is pretty high. And then I know myself and a lot of people were drafting him as an RB1 or, you know, high end RB2 in their drafts. And they got burned because they didn't have the options in the season to like replace him

with once Rico took over. I agree as somebody who also liked Chuba this year. and I think one takeaway too is we sort of talked about it a little bit with Michael Wilson in the last episode too. Like these not late career, but a few years into a career breakouts too, they're harder to bet on that they'll actually continue to be good. And especially where you're drafting Chuba potentially as your RB1 like you said or maybe as your RB2, it's just not a very good bet to make. to make or at least to rely on. And that's something I'm definitely going to remind myself of next year because Chuba definitely burned me and some best ball leagues as well.

Yeah. I think to clarify what I was saying, you know, you take the RB-19 and you think to yourself, you've got an RB2 and you might skip a few rounds there and say, okay, I'm clear. But I think that it's really important. We've become so, I think this is the best ballification of fantasy and I fall for it too. we've become so wide receiver focused, especially in these PPR leagues,

that you just kind of want to get in and out on the running back. You just want to be like, I have my running backs, now let's take a million lotos on these wide receivers when there's 32 starting running backs. There's a few backups in the mix, are Kenny Gainwells that actually do some damage.

But besides that, if this guy misses, you're kind of screwed. So I think when we look at this range, the hindsight I'm going to take is, let's make sure that you've got a backup plan if somebody fails, because the odds of a guy failing in that like RB 16 to 22ish range, like it's higher than we think.

All right, well, that was it for hindsight's 2025. Drop down below if you have any other guys that really disappointed you this year and what your thoughts are on them going to 2026, but we are going to jump into the divisional round and give our NFL playoff preview. All right, game one on Saturday, the Buffalo Bills 12 and 5 going to Denver

to take on the well-rested Denver. Broncos with Bo Nicks. Give me your initial thoughts on the game. I think this game will be like every single Broncos game this year, which is just like kind of ugly at times, but close and decided at the very end. And if that is the case, maybe that does bode well for Denver. They've been very good in one-score games this year. But it's an elite quarterback versus an elite defense.

So should be a good game. I think the winner of this game will likely be the favorite in the AFC championship game regardless of he wins between New England and Houston. So high stakes, very high stakes. I think this Broncos defense is fantastic, obviously. I don't think you're going to hear anybody give an argument otherwise. I've been licking my chops waiting for a chance to bet against Bo Nix in the playoffs. I don't see it.

I watched it all year. Like you said, it comes down to the fourth quarter. I felt like he just cannot string together four good quarters of football. And last week was such a great reminder. like if you're not going to do that, you're not going to beat Josh Allen. Like, you got your fourth quarter magic, but Josh Allen has his. Yeah, this really, I didn't even really think about that, but this really is a battle of two quarterbacks who have been so clutched in the fourth quarter this year.

Obviously, Josh Allen much more high profile than Bow Nix, but Bo Nix has been phenomenal in the fourth quarter more than any other quarter. So could be fireworks in the fourth. Also, less talked about than I think it should be, but a rematch of last year in a game that went very out of hand for Buffford. in the win. But who do you have in a position to succeed? I'm a little bit weary for both of these teams, to be honest, from a fantasy perspective.

There are a couple guys I like. One guy I do want to just throw out there and give a shout out to is Khalil Shakir. We mentioned last week this Buffalo offense is like everybody eats, nobody eats, and it's kind of a stayaway, icky fantasy situation. But I do think Khalil Shakir could have a lot of manufactured touches in this game. We saw it last week against Jackson. Ville a very good defense, especially early on in the game. He was getting a ton of quick screens, bubbles, just right off the snap first read. Josh takes the ball, throws it immediately. He actually

had 12 receptions last week against the Jaguars, which is pretty crazy. I didn't even realize that until I went back and looked at the satchee. It felt like a lot, watching. It did feel like a lot, but 12 is kind of crazy. 12 is insane. Yeah, and I think it could, I mean, maybe not 12, but I think we could see something similar this week. Obviously, Denver like Jacksonville has a phenomenal defense. there's more targets opened up now with Tyrell Shavers, unfortunately tearing his ACL, he'll be out for not only this game, but the rest of the season.

So a lot of targets opened up, and I think Shakir probably could get a lot of them in a manufactured fashion. This is a great, great pick. I think they're going to have to get him involved, honestly. And he is the only wide receiver in that offense. I even remotely trust. I'm not, said it last week.

I'm not going anywhere in her, Keon Coleman, not with a 10-foot cookie jar. Hey, he had one good play. He did have the one good play last week. And I was like, he better not like, yeah, he better not get like a touchdown this game or else. I mean, I have to like praise Keon Coleman episode and I'm not doing that. But I'm going to say Josh Allen for my position to succeed as my cop out. But I'm going to get my real one.

Last week I talked about Travis E.TN. I'm going to go back to the running back playing against the bill as well. And I'm just going to go RJ Harvey. since the week 11 game versus the chiefs we saw his touches tick up like week by week and now he's like maintaining which I think was the concern like is this real or is this not and like sample size is by far big enough for me to now be like yeah Sean Peyton wants to use him he wants to just get him involved as much as possible and I think we see a lot of opportunities for Harvey who scares you in this one honestly a lot of players by the way love the Harvey pick I completely agree I think he's a really good play this week but Beyond the players we've already talked about, I'm kind of like lukewarm on everyone in this game. I'm not super excited about anyone. I think similar to what we were talking about with the bills receivers outside of Shakir. I just don't trust any of these Denver receivers.

Sure, it's possible one of them breaks off a 40-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter or something. I don't want to take that bet on any of them, really. If you do go for one of them, I mean, Cortland Sutton had nine targets in that playoff game last year between these two, teams. Like, if you're going to take the shot, he's their best receiver. He's the best bet for volume. Go for it. But even that, I don't love.

So I'm kind of just not trusting any Denver receiver this weekend. Yeah, I feel you. So I wrote down James Cook. I don't trust any Bill's receiver either, but I also just don't care enough about them to be like, I'm scared about it. But I think this one's going to stay low scoring. Cook struggled this week. I was waiting for him to break that 50-yard touchdown.

never happened. But I think this is going to be an even tougher matchup for him. And I'm just, what you're going to have to pay in DFS to get James Cook is probably not going to be worth it. Yeah, I'm in on that as well.

We saw him last week struggle a lot against Jacksonville's good run defense. Denver's also got the good run defense. I'm not super excited about him either. Who do you got winning this one? We talked about it last week. It's just hard to bet against Josh Allen. I'm going to say the bills win in a really close game,

which is I'm characteristic of the Broncos to lose those close games, but I'll take Josh Allen and the bills on this one. I'm going to take Josh Allen too. I'm not doing it again. It's a combination of getting burned last week, and I wanted to bet against Bo Nicks anyway. So it's kind of a win-win. My bold prediction for this one,

I'm going to steal yours from last week and tweak it a little bit. It's not going to be James Cook. It's going to be Josh Allen, and he's going to break off a 30-plus-yard rushing touchdown in the second half when they need it most. That is something you can just like visualize and like he's done it before and it just feels like something he would do. So yeah, I don't I don't blame me for that pick at all. I'll say similar to your pick of a quarterback rushing the ball. I'll say Bo Nix goes for over 40 yards

rushing. Bill's run defense hasn't been very good. I can see some scripted run plays from Bo Nix this weekend and maybe he breaks a big one as well. I agree with this pick. I think we're going to see the quarterback's taken off a lot. I think both of us are very out on the receiving rooms of both of these teams. Let's move on to another game

where there's at least a few receivers we can hopefully talk about and that is the San Francisco 49ers going down to Seattle, going up to Seattle, excuse me, and give me your thoughts on this one, divisional matchup. Third time this year,

these teams are playing. I think it'll be a great, game, if Sam Darnold loses this game, and especially if he plays poorly and loses this game, he will never beat the fraudulent pumpkin allegations. Like, he needs this one.

Like, for his own ego, for his own reputation, he really needs this one. And the Seahawks really should win. We've been saying it for so long now, it's actually kind of getting exhausting. But like, the Niners don't have any business being here with all of their injuries. Like, it's crazy they're still here. The Seahawks have been so

good on both sides of the ball. It really seems like they should win at home, but it would be classic Shanahan to go in Seattle and win this game against a divisional opponent to get to the NFC title game. So I can't fully count out the Niners yet. 100%. I'm on the same page that I want so badly. I mean, I'm going to be rooting for the Niners. I just like this team. I like Shanahan. I love McCaffrey. I think Brock Purdy's been so disrespectful for a while now. I love Joanne. There's so much about this team that I like. And there's guys on Seattle I like too, but I'm just not. not as invested in that team.

But I was so high on the Niners going into the week 18 matchup. I got burned there. We're losing Kittle. I know Jake Tondjus is the Kittle replacement, and he seems to come in and score touchdown every time. But it's a lot harder for me to visualize this win. I think that the Niners are getting, like you said, counted out way too quickly here.

But it is a little bit hard to imagine them winning this one. In my position to succeed, I'm going to talk a little bit about two guys on Seattle, one more obvious than the other. JSN should cook here. If you want to go in like the run game, like you can, I just, I think they're going to be up. So I think you can sprinkle like a Charbonnet or a Kenneth Walker. But there's not going to be that much opportunity to go around when you're perfectly split between two guys, which they tend to like to do. And I think a lot of people are going to look at Sequon's 100 yards last week and be like 100 yard rusher,

like maybe a chance to attack that San Francisco defense. but Sequam wasn't all that affected. I think he had 4.1 yards per carry, so I'm staying away and in the wide receiver room, I'm probably just running with JSN. But if you want a sneakier option in that passing game, look at the tight ends and look at AJ Barner, third on the team in total touchdowns,

second in receiving touchdowns, and San Francisco just let Dallas Goddard eat in the red zone. Their defense has been pretty stingy this year, but they actually allowed the 10th most points to the tight end position on the year. Yeah, I agree. agree with all of that. I am completely out on the Seattle run game. I think you're right though. I think a lot of people are going to look at what Seekwon did last week and think maybe the game strip will be good too and the running

bass will get involved. I just, the Seahawks, despite how good they've been, have not run the ball well all year. And I just don't trust them. So I agree. Yeah, there's been flashes, but it's not consistent. No. And it's like Ken Walker's probably been, I guess, the better of the two, but he's not getting the meaningful touches. is the third down receptions. He's definitely not getting the goal line work. So I just, I'm staying away from both of them regardless of the matchup. I do agree with you, though. Absolutely love JSN in this spot. I think he could have a nuclear kind of performance like we saw from Puka last week. He's definitely had multiple of those this year. In general, though, like a lot of the games this weekend, unfortunately, I'm not thrilled with a lot of the options. Obviously, the stars like

JSN, who we just mentioned, are going to be incredible, and I don't have doubts about that. And then another star I do want to just call out Christian McCaffrey. It actually is a tough matchup. Seattle's run defense has been very good. I just think he could get 30 plus touches. Like, they always run the offensive to him. They might need to double down on that, no kiddle again, and just so beat up, I could see him touching the ball a ton.

So tough matchup, but we'll get a lot of volume, I would assume. We have been far too agreeable this episode, so it's finally time for me to say no, I disagree. I actually had Christian McCaffrey as the player that scares me the most. Let's look at it from a DFS perspective. He's an $8,800 price tag on DK, most expensive behind only Puka Nakua. Christian McCaffrey averaged 25.3 points per game this season, only 17.45 against Seattle. So we talk about JSN being a great play and Christian McCaffrey, not being a great play, I feel like it seems silly because it's like, these are two stars and both are incredible.

But the way we want to look at it in the playoffs is on this one game slate, how are they going to do relative to a very small sample of players and at the price tag that we're being asked to pay for them? And for me, if you're looking at Christian McCavry at 8,800 and he gets anywhere near like a 17-point game, you're going to be seeing a snowflake next to his score and you're going to be pissed off about it. Those games against Seattle, it's no coincidence. They were the number one team against fantasy running backs.

And so I wouldn't say that you can't play CMC anywhere. Like, that's a losing recipe too. Maybe sprinkle him in a tournament lineup here or there. But I am going in with almost zero confidence in there being a strong floor for him this weekend. Yeah, I guess the only thing I'll disagree with you there is I do think the floor is good because of the volume. I'm concerned more so with the explosive plays,

with him finding the end zone if the Niders aren't able to move the ball. I think he is going to touch the ball a lot. But what I do absolutely agree with you is the Seattle defense is very good. We've seen it twice this year against McAvary specifically. So at like his price tag in DFS, like you mentioned, that does scare me as well. I think how they use him in the passing game will be very, very critical to this. Because I think you're going to need those PPR points if you're going to have a cash in. Then obviously touchdowns just play a huge role every week with this stuff.

Yeah. Who were you out on this week? Like I mentioned, I'm kind of scared of a lot of players in this game. One I want to call out because it's a guy we talked about last week, a guy we both liked a lot last week. Juan Jennings, I feel much worse about this week. Seattle's secondary has just been incredible. Josh Job is probably the weakness of it.

And I could see maybe Shanahan trying to move Jennings around, get that matchup. But regardless, I just don't love the matchup in general. I think that he probably won't get Job exclusively or anything like that. And I think it's possible Seattle treats Jennings as the clear cut number one of this offense for at least this weekend, especially with Kiddle out. We've seen how great Joanne Jennings has been down the stretch. And I could see Seattle's game plan just to be like, do not let him get the ball.

At least obviously you still got to worry about McCaffrey. But on the outside, I could see them really treating him as the clear number one. Don't sleep on the best Niner since Jerry Rice to Marcus Robinson. If I'm Seattle, I'm watching him this week. Who do you got to win this one? I think that

this will be another good game, but I'll take Seattle by a touchdown. Yeah, I'm going to go Seattle. I'll go a little less. I think Seattle's going to maybe win by like three, four points. I think it'll be closer, but I think they're going to fall just short.

Give me your bold prediction for this one. Yeah, I thought about this one. I tried to come up with something new. And then I said, you know what? Give me the same thing as last week. McCaffrey, 10 plus targets in the passing game. He had eight last week, came up just short, but they're going to need him even more this week.

So I'll take 10 plus targets for McCaprey. I love it. I'm going to go, AJ Barner touchdown. I'll say JSN also gets in. And I'm going to say the 49ers get held to about 17 points or fewer. I think this is going to overall be a lower scoring game than people expect. I would 100% agree with that. All right, let's jump into the Sunday games, starting in Foxborough, Houston Texans traveling

to New England. Give me your initial thoughts on this one. I obviously as a Patriots fan and very excited for this game. I think if you are an NFL fan or a fan of points and fantasy, maybe a little bit less excited, I think this will be a super similar game to the Patriot Chargers game last weekend, largely because the Texans remind me of the Chargers in a lot of ways. They both have great defenses. Texans definitely with a better defense.

I think they have the best defense in the NFL, so they get the edge there. But similar to the Chargers, they've really struggled to run the ball consistently. They have an awful offensive line, which has really been hurting them throughout the season. I think if there's one thing that gives the Patriots an advantage in this game compared to the Chargers game was the Chargers' offense couldn't move the ball. but when they were finding success, it was often with Herbert improvising and making plays with his feet. That's something that Stroud doesn't really have

in his arsenal. He's not very mobile. So I think that maybe gives a little bit more of an advantage to the Patriots. But just in general, I respect both these defenses a lot and I'm not expecting a lot of points in this one. Yeah, I think I watched the other net.

Like the Texans defense is just, I mean, they're so good that they can make anybody in the building turn the ball over, including C.J. Stroud like 15 times. Every time you watch them, you just get reminded how good this team is. I heard an argument that like, if they had had a nickname like The Legion of Boom,

like would they be getting talked about even more? Like, they don't have like that whole like culture around it the way like Seattle did. But like when you think about being this scared of a defense, I can't think of the last time that I've been like, man, this is like one of those like absolutely game-changing defenses. against Pittsburgh and, you know, we just saw Mike Tomlin step down today, but they were, the offense could do nothing.

They had seven points, and it was all because Christian Kirk had a legacy game, him and Demarcus Robinson weekend of their lives, the Cokeheads, Demarcus Robinson, Christian Kirk, but outside of that, they had absolutely nothing going, and it took the Texans defense scoring two touchdowns on their own to secure the win. And that's why this defense is so scary. They can do that. They can not only shut down in opposing offense. They can take the ball away and they can go score themselves.

So I agree. I think Legion of Boom is, I know that's a really high bar, but I think it kind of is a fair comparison, especially given how good they played this season. It's a Marvin Harrison Jr. If this Texan's defense was called the Legion of Boom and the Legion of Boom was called Malik Neighbors, who's in a position to succeed for you?

I keep saying it. it hurts my heart as somebody who loves points and loves fantasy football, but this is just another game. I don't feel good. It's kind of a total stayaway game for me. I don't really like anyone. If you want kind of a fun like DFS sleeper who's probably pretty affordable, Dalton Schultz could get involved. Like I said, I don't really like the Texans offense very much in this game, but the Patriots linebackers have struggled in man coverage this year, at least compared to their corners who have been very good. So that's a matchup that this offense might try to exploit a little bit. Also, Nico Collins, we'll see what happens with him,

but he had a pretty scary looking hit to the head on Monday night. So he might be out with a concussion, and if that's the case, a ton of targets will open up. I could definitely see those going to Dalton Schultz. Not a super sexy, like exciting, explosive tight end, but definitely a capable one who could see a decent amount of volume in this game. I want to give us a shout out. Speaking of DFS last week,

we called out the Houston Texans defense at 3,300, and that was an absolute screaming value that smashed. I mean, I didn't think we were going to get two touchdowns, but I'll take it. And like, that was amazing. I cashed in a few tournaments because of them. I'm also going to say nobody. I will say I'm not going to play any of it. I can't as a homer.

Like, I will not play the Texans defense, but they're probably a value again. I think honestly, both of these defenses are if you want to construct different lineups, like this is a great spot to hit, which usually means there's no great guys on offense. if you do want to take a chance. Houston's defense is incredible. We've been talking about it for five minutes straight. The one hole that they do have, and they are still a top 10 defense

in both fantasy points per game and PFF grade, but their defense against the run. We've seen a few running backs gashed them this year. Ashton Gentie, Jonathan Taylor, James Cook, a few examples. Obviously extremely talented guys. There's not like Joe Schmo getting in there and running for 150, but if you wanted to sprinkle

some Trayvion and Ramon Andre Stevenson, I think that might be like generationally low ownership on both of those guys. It's another situation we talked about with Seattle guys where, yeah, it's a little hard to predict. And this is probably an even smaller pie than that game. But if you want to get really, really weird, there is a little bit of a leverage angle with those two. And then for who scares me, I'm going to go with every single receiver that's going to touch a blade of grass. With Nico Collins down, he's probably the only guy that I would have had even a remote amount of confidence in. I like Diggs too, but these guys, like, at their prices, there's better options

this weekend. Yeah, I, 100% agree with that. I'm pretty much out on every receiver. And I'm also out on the running backs. I know you mentioned the Patriots running backs. Sure, I guess there's some upside there. I think I like trivia on a little bit more just because of the home run hitting abilities, which we have seen. Yeah. Yeah. And like, that's what it's going to take. I don't think either of those running backs are going to be able to consistently and efficiently run through this defense. But all it takes is one big play. We saw it with Gentile earlier this year. But I'm definitely out on Woody Marks. He is coming off his first 100-yard game of the season. And he actually did look good. We joke Woody Marks would be so good if he actually was good. But he did look good the other night. I'll give him that. But I still don't trust him. I still don't trust this Texan's offensive line or this run game as a whole.

we talked about last week the Patriots getting so many guys back healthy it showed against the Chargers they might get Chiris Tonga back as well this week who's their best space seating interior defender so I have very very low hopes for Woody Marks this week this week this piss me off the other night I kept hearing that because I know CJ Stroud was a disaster but everyone was being like just give the ball to Woody Marks more and I'm like have any of you watched Woody Marks this year am I the only one that's watched I feel like my red zone is the Woody Marks zone and every time it's him like picking up two yards on a draw. I think people who enjoyed watching Woody Marks played football, watched Nick Chubb play football first this year. Oh my God. If Nick Chub wasn't in that backfield,

like, it's like bringing like an ugly friend around with you so that you look better. Yeah. Oh, that's the perfect comparison. That's what they did for Woody Marks. And it's like, oh, he looks pretty good. Nick Chub has been abysmal this year. Very sad, obviously after the injuries, but I don't think Woody Marks has even been that much better. No, I don't think so. In fact, usually a lot of the time, it's like I can't even tell who's running the ball. They both look slow to me. Yeah. Who are you taking to win this one and give me your bold prediction?

I, of course, am going to be a homer and I'm going to take my New England Patriots, but I think it'll be a really low scoring battle just like we saw last week. And with that said, I actually, as my bold prediction, I'm going to have each team turning the ball over multiple times. We saw the Patriots actually do that last week and the Texas defense is incredible. I could see them doing it again. And guess what? We saw the Texans do it this past week as well with Stroud.

really being loose with the football. So I think we see it again and both teams have multiple turnovers. I think C.J. Stroud needs to stop dribbling a basketball before the game because now he's just starting to dribble a football too. Yeah, he's like afraid he's going to carry it. Like an NBA terms, yeah. Yeah.

I'll also go with the Patriots in a slug fest. I'm going to give a score prediction, which is rare here. I'm going to say this game finishes 1713 Patriots in a defensive battle. And I think Ramondre Stevenson puts one in the end zone. 1713 just sounds right. Like that just seems like what the score is going to be.

All right. Let's move on to the final game of the NFL divisional round. The Los Angeles Rams traveling to the Iceman's home turf, the Chicago Bears. I'm going to give a quick stat to kick us off here. This is from John Breach on Twitter. The Rams facing the Bears in the divisional round, Sean McVeigh will somehow be facing his 15th different team in 15 career playoff games. Stats that cannot possibly be true. That's impossible. Like, it's, it truly is

almost mathematically impossible, especially when you consider only two of those games have been against AFC opponents. That means he's had 13 NFC opponents and all 13 have been different teams. There's only 15 other teams in the conference. I really feel like it's like the Harry Potter meme. Like, why is it when something happens, it's always you three? Why is it when there's a ridiculous stats, always you Sean McVeigh? Why are you always behind this? And why does Sean McVeigh memorize it? know, like before anyone else even knows. He's probably planned this. That's probably why he had his starters in week 18.

He's like, I can't risk not being seated in a way that lets me play my 15th and 14th, different team. He might lose this week just so he doesn't have to play a team the next week that he had played in playoffs. Yeah, that's 80 chess. I'll say this, the bears have some real magic to them. Last week was phenomenal, unbelievable. We couldn't have asked for a better Saturday night game.

I think the clock strikes midnight here. I'm hoping for the Rams sake they learned their lesson last week put the fucking team away it is the Iceman it's the Ice Man in a cold weather game in Chicago the Rams are not a cold weather team

Stafford's got a hurt hand that might impact him the Bears have had so much magic this year they're playing at home it feels like a Chicago victory is written in the stars but there's still that voice in my head that's like it's the Rams

it's Sean McVeigh it's Matt Stafford who's potentially going to be the MVP, and we talk about how we should walk back our expectations from them because we're treating them like they're the best team in the NFL and they're a wildcard team and they look beatable. And that's all true, but I still refuse to quit on this team. Like, I still feel like they, like, just intuitively,

I feel like they're so much better than the Bears. And I don't actually think that's true. I just feel that way. So I think it's going to be a good game. I think it'll be close and I think we could see some fireworks at the end of this weekend. I fully, fully agree. I think this is a phenomenal game to finish off on. This is the exact opposite of Patriots Texans,

because when we're talking about who's in a position to succeed, I had like a list that just kept on going. But I'm going to condense it down to one name. I'm done getting cute. I'm done talking Devante Adams. Let's talk Pooka Nakua. This is my Pooka Nakuwa week. I think in DFS, if you want to just pay up for a receiver,

it should be Pooka Nakua. If you want some leverage, lower ownership, you drop down a JSN, that's fine. The Bears are allowing the second most fantasy points per game to wide receivers this season, though. Devante got going in the second half. I do think they looked to him a little bit more to get his motor going a little bit in the first half. But this is Pukunakua. I'm done trying to get cute.

It's him. They're going to go to him every chance they get. Even if I disagree with you, I would never speak poorly about Pooka Nakua. But I do agree with you luckily. Like, Omi saw it last week. Like Matthew Golden looked like he was. the offensive rookie of the year in that game against this bear secondary. Jaden Reed played well. Romeo Dobbs had a huge game. This bear secondary is a problem, and they are now going against

what is debatably the best passing offense in the NFL with Sean McVeigh and Matt Stafford at the helm. So all over Puka, could not agree more. He mentioned Devante Adams as well. Sure, he's a super talented receiver in a great matchup. Love Devante Adams as well. Those two seem like, such obvious smashes this week. I want to get a little tricky. If you're feeling a little frisky, a little dangerous, and you're an absolute sicko,

which I know I am, Xavier Smith for the Rams played a season high, 43% of snaps last week. Obviously, that's not a ton, and the Rams run a ton of two tight-end sets. But Xavier Smith has weirdly kind of seemed like he's emerging

in this postseason run is the wide receiver three. Jordan Whittington, if he plays, that could change it. I think he's questionable right now. He won't get a ton of volume even if he does play, but he might see the field at least a bit more than Xavier Smith. But if you're looking for like a super under the radar cheap, cheap DFS play and a smash matchup, why not Xavier Smith?

I mean, I think Pooka and Devante will have great days. But if the bears get so fixated on Devonte Adams and Puka Nakuwa, all it takes is one deep shot to Xavier Smith. And for that matter, like any of these other Rans receivers, you want to take the shot on Mump Field or 2-2, like, go for it. But Xavier Smith is the one who played the most last week, so he's the one I'm most interested in. I would love to see a build here with Matthew Stafford double-stacked, take a puka or a Devante, and throw Xavier Smith in there. Just takes one play. It just takes one. Who scares you from a fancy perspective in this one.

I think because I love the Rams passing attack so much, I don't love Kyron as much and it's not necessarily like a ding on Kyron

or anything. It's just the Bears' run defense has been pretty good. We saw last week like Josh Jacobs wasn't particularly great and the Packers leaned much more on the air attack.

I think the Rams are going to do the same. I think they're going to target the matchup through the air and Kyron and this Rams backfield it's kind of become a committee anyways so if they're not running the ball a lot and Coran is getting some of the touches I just don't know that Kyron will be

involved enough to really have a big fantasy day so I'm not super excited about him this week yeah I'm in the same boat I think we see a modest game nothing special I'm gonna go to the opposite side of the ball same thing Swift I think Ben Johnson's gonna look to establish the run again but like the Rams run defense is no joke

third in the league on PFF's run defense grade. And this is like very vibes-based, but don't you just feel like Kyle Minungai is like waiting to vulture a touchdown? I feel like it's been a minute for him. And he's just always lingering in the back of my head. Yeah, another committee. And yeah, I could absolutely see Manungai

bolchering that touchdown. Who do you got to win and what's your bold prediction? Hurt hand in all. Give me Matthew Stafford to throw for 400 plus yards and a win. I think it'll be a great game. I hope it'll be a great game. It'll come down to the end, but I am going to take the Rams. I will take the Rams as well.

I think Caleb's going to have a little fourth quarter magic, but I don't think he's going to finish the job. And my bold prediction, I'm going to go Puka and Devante combined for three plus touchdowns in this one. That would be fun. I think this is our fireworks game. If you're looking for the offensive, I mean, you can look at the totals for every game, it's going to tell you that anyways, but

everything on paper is saying this one should be a whole lot of fun. Let's jump into our final segment of the week. We are going to be taking a look at our set the line from last week and then giving our three picks for this week. All right. So if you didn't watch last week, Mello and I are each bringing three guys to the table and giving us a line to bet over or under on PPR fantasy points.

I'll start things off. Last week, each of us went two and one. I'm going to go with a receiver that we talked about earlier. Somebody I'm very high on. So I had to set the line a little bit high. I'm going to go with JSN at 20 and a half points. It's a damn good line, Mitch. JSN has been incredible all year.

I do really like him this week. We've talked about it before. The stars come out in the playoffs. Give me the over. I think he's going to be super involved. I think he catches a touchdown. It's a lot of points that he needs, but I will take the over.

I'd probably take the over too. Yeah, I feel good about it. Adam. Let me give you another receiver that I don't think either of us feel quite as good about. Stefan Diggs. We haven't really talked about him much. We thought he'd have a good week last week. He did not. I'm going to set his line at 12.8 points. This pains me, but I'm just going to go with my gut here. I think that's an under. I think we just spent all that time talking about stay away from these receivers. And like, I can't say stay away from Stefan Diggs if I have any confidence in my heart that he's going to go over 12.8. So

I'll take the under. I probably would have it as well. Yeah. I'm going to go with a quarterback before I returned a wide receiver for my last pick. I'm going to go with Bo Nix. This was actually a very hard line to set because I think his rushing in my brain

is so all over the place. I can see so many different scenarios with that. But I settled at 16.2 points for Bo Nix. That feels right. The Beals' defense hasn't been great this year, but they've weirdly actually been good about, good against quarterbacks

from like a fantasy perspective. I think they're one of the top 10 defenses in terms of fantasy points allowed to the quarterback position. And I also agree with you. It probably will come down to the rushing. I did predict him to have 40 plus rushing yards and be involved in that rushing game.

So for that reason, I will take the over. Reluctantly so, though. Two overs to start it out. All right, hit me with your next one. Let's see if that trend continues. this is a polarizing player on today's episode. So this is actually a good one to bring up.

I'm going to say Christian McCaffrey. I know you're worried about him this week. I'm going to put him at 20.2, which is a lot of points, but definitely lower than what we're used to seeing from him. Yeah, that's what's interesting about this. I don't feel like I'm a hypocrite if I say over because I don't think like,

I don't think 20.2 is like an explosively great performance for Christian McCaffrey. Definitely. I will take the under, though. Let me stick to my guns. I'm going two unders to start this off. I'm a whole bunch of fun in this week, set the line. Yeah, you're lame, taking two unders.

I'm a lot of fun of parties. All right, let me give the last one. He was a guy that I'm so high on. One more wide receiver. Puka Nakua 23.5 points. Oh. I can't possibly take three overs, but it is Puka-fricking Nakua.

and he is playing the bear's trash secondary. And I do love him with all my heart. So of course I'm going to take Pooka Nakuwa over. Life's too short to bet the under, especially when it's Puka Nakua. Give me three straight overs. That's kind of funny. I was talking about how I don't feel good

about a lot of players in fantasy this week. And I took three straight overs. But I like these lines. I like the overs. Yeah. I'm looking at it again. I'm like 23 and a half. I just talked about him getting,

I mean, in the Devante Puka 3 plus touchdowns, like two of those are probably Pooka. I'm like, maybe I did set that a little. It's crazy, 23 and a half points. And we're like, that's a low line for him. Just a testament to the season he's having. Just unbelievable. All right, let me give you one more. I got kind of an icky one here.

A player who hasn't really even played a lot recently due to injury. And then last week when he did was almost invisible. I'm going to go with Roma Dunesay. he has been underwhelming but what could be a shootout maybe he gets involved I'm gonna set it pretty low though

I'm gonna put him at 9.7 points I suck but I'm gonna go a third under we got three overs three unders I was so against Roma Dunezay last week and like of course in the fourth quarter he just like shows up

and he gets the 27-yard reception and I just don't see it I don't think it's gonna happen I do think there's a lot of fireworks in this game, which is where I hesitated. Because like, I feel like we're just going to catch a stray Roma Dunzee, like 30-yard reception. Not going to be pissed. But I'm going to go under.

I just, I can't in good faith say that I think he's worth more than 9.7 points this week. I think it comes down to a touchdown. I think that that'll make or break that line. Well, that was our Set the Line segment for this week and our NFL Divisional Round Preview episode. Thank you guys for watching. Make sure to drop in the comments. anything about any of the divisional round games, hit the like button and subscribe, then hit the bell to be notified every time we drop a brand new episode.

Mello, you got anything left? Bet the over. That's all I got to say. Bet the yonder. All right, we will catch you guys on Sunday night this week for an instant reaction to all these games. See ya.