Lineup Fantasy Football Show - NFL Wildcard Weekend Best Bets

Episode Date: January 9, 2026

NFL Wildcard Weekend is right around the corner! Mitch and Jack break down every game from this weekend's NFL Wildcard slate and give their favorite spreads, totals, and players props. Then we wrap up... by putting our reputations on the line for our favorite plays of the week, and give our Super Bowl picks. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Transcript
Discussion (0)
Starting point is 00:00:04 All right, welcome into the lineup betting show. I'm Mitch Anderson. I'm Jack McCarthy. What's up, Mitch? And it is finally time for the NFL playoffs. If you missed yesterday's episode, I addressed for a little bit about how this used to be the TGTV channel. We're officially becoming two brand new NFL shows, the lineup fantasy football show and now the lineup betting show with my good friend and now new co-host, Jack McCarthy, also co-host of the very popular Games of Names podcast with Julian Edelman. How you doing, Jack? I'm glad to be here, bro. I thought we were running some two-kies. dog. Yeah, we're switching things up a little bit. I love it. Let's make some money this weekend, dog. Let's do it. Without further ado, let's jump into things. But first, make sure to drop a like,
Starting point is 00:00:44 comment, subscribe, and hit that bell notification, be notified every time we drop a brand new episode on Spotify, Apple, or YouTube. All right, Jack, let's take a look at some of the best bets on the board. We've got Rams at Panthers. We've got a nine and a half point spread for the Rams, 46 and a half point total. What are your first thoughts on this one? Bro, anytime during the playoffs and you see double digits, it's like, sheesh, and the team hosting is getting 10 and a half? Do they not remember week 13? That was not that long ago. I know. That wasn't that long ago. But I mean, I don't know if I feel comfortable laying the 10 and a half. That game back in Charlotte back in week 13 was a nasty, rainy, ugly game.
Starting point is 00:01:31 Matthew Stafford didn't look like Mr. MVP Matthews. So I'm like, I'm hesitant to take the 10 and a half, but I do think the Rams will come out of there with a dub. Maybe, maybe if I'm feeling down bad, include it in the teaser, get that thing down to 3.5. But I don't know. I'm kind of thinking, I don't feel comfortable enough to take the Panthers plus 10. And I'm not seeing the Rams covering that fat spray.
Starting point is 00:01:55 What do you think, Mitchie? I think that line is perfect. I hate when Vegas does this because I think that I like 9.5. I think that's the perfect spread. I would probably go in favor of the Rams. But like you said, if you can tease this thing down, I like taking an alt line at six and a half.
Starting point is 00:02:11 Ooh, okay. To me, this is a spot, though, where I just, I don't see a way that the Rams don't take care of business and take care of business fast. I'm with you. We've gone over the spread a little bit.
Starting point is 00:02:21 Give me some of your favorite player props to watch. Puka's getting his numbers, man. He's getting his catches. I know we got Devante back this week. So the red zone threat will be, will be there for Adams. and my play, I love Devante in this spot. I think he's got a guy coming in fresh.
Starting point is 00:02:37 I think that him and Stafford have such a good rapport in the red area. We saw so many of those inside the five targets. And for me, I'm going over four and a half receptions. I'm sprinkling touchdown. I don't know if I'm going to be throwing it in some lotos, if I'm going to be taking it straight. But I am going to have some exposure to him to score a touchdown. I dig that.
Starting point is 00:02:59 What do you like for the total this week, 46 and a half? half. I don't know. I mean, I'm looking right here, by the way, Mitch, I know we're past this, but like, Puka over 92 and a half yards. Like, I would hammer that thing, bro. Oh, up to 92 and a half, okay. I mean, I think it's going to be Puck all day, baby. I'm a homer here, but like, I just see it. In the total, ah, man, I think there's some of these games where the Panthers just kind of struggle to score. If Bryce is not looking like the Bryce from week 13, I mean, that was a 31, 28 game.
Starting point is 00:03:32 I don't know, man. I'm kind of leaning under here. What do you think? I'm going to go under, too. I had the exact same thought. I think that the Panthers have a lot more difficult of a time getting things going this time around. Agreed.
Starting point is 00:03:43 So I think I'm hammering that under. I'm just looking back here. 16, 14 last week in Tampa, 27-10 against Seattle. I'm seeing 23-20 against the bucks that other week. 20 to 17. Yeah, I'm going under all day here, bro. Any parlays you like out of this one?
Starting point is 00:03:59 you convince me on Rams, bro. Rams in the under, maybe. Is that too much of a square play? No, I don't think that's crazy at all. If you said Rams in the over, I might have called you out for a big square play all day. That's the squares guy of all square. That's L7 Weenie Square, bro.
Starting point is 00:04:14 No chance. No, no, no. But I mean, I don't hate parling. I also don't hate parling the under and that Devante Adams prop you were throwing at me. Total. The under with Devante Adams over. Yes.
Starting point is 00:04:25 Which sounds weird, I know. But I don't hate it. I think he's going to be back and ready to rock, dude. I am going to go with my parlay. I'm going to go with the Devante Adams touchdown. I'm going to go with Rico Dowdell under 15 and a half receiving yards. Run Rico, run. Yeah, I'm not, I'm not buying that either. I 100% think if he's going to get going to go and it's going to be on the ground. I don't see them looking at him in the past game. And then I'm actually going to take Bryce Young under 18 and a half rushing yards.
Starting point is 00:04:50 I don't think he's going to have the opportunity to run around the way he's going to want to. I think they're going to keep him in the pocket and the Rams just take over this game. I think you got guys like, was it, Quentin Lates back this game, didn't he? I believe so, yeah. Yeah, which is huge. You got Devonte back, like, they're getting their guys back there already.
Starting point is 00:05:06 Sean McFay, he's not going to go down there and lose to Stinking Dave Canales. You kidding me? He's not losing two games to him. Not in the same season. No, dude. I don't care if they got to go back to Carolina. It doesn't matter.
Starting point is 00:05:16 All right, let's move on to the next game. We got Rams and we got the under and that one. We're on the same page. I like that. Let's see if we stay that way for the night game, primetime, Saturday night.
Starting point is 00:05:26 Green Bay Packers. at Chicago Bears. I talked about this yesterday as probably in my top three most exciting games. This is awesome. I think the Bears are getting disrespected with an opening line of Green Bay minus one and a half. Couldn't have very similar total in this one of 45 and a half. Did you know Green Bay hasn't won since they beat them back in week 14? That's insane. Five straight losses. That's insane. Excuse me. Oh my God. I mean, I'm, yeah. If you would said that off The rip, I probably wouldn't have, would not have believed you, but I'm looking here at the schedule, and it's just kind of like, you do the, like, the Alonzo morning gift where it's like,
Starting point is 00:06:05 mm, yep, yep, actually, yep. You even think back, I think it was Week 16 that they had that OT game between Chicago and Green Bay, and I know it was a Malik Willis game, but, like, it didn't, I mean, you know, you're not running the same offense with Malik Willis, but he didn't look necessarily bad. No, dude. And Chicago still looked like the stronger overall team. So if we want to jump straight into spreading over, I'm going to take Chicago Money Line straight up.
Starting point is 00:06:30 All day, bro. Ben Johnson has slayed the dragon. He can do it again. Oh, man, yes. And I do like that he ripped him a new one last week. You too. That Detroit game, I think there's going to be a little fire under their butts coming in this thing.
Starting point is 00:06:42 A little fire. I love that narrative because you can look at it both ways. You can say, did they get a little bit disappointed by that and a little bit of a bus kill after that in San Francisco? But I think Ben Johnson's a good enough coach that I agree. I think he's going to light a little fire under him. Agreed. And they get it out of their system in a quasi-meaningless Week 18 game.
Starting point is 00:07:01 I'm going to go over on this one. I thought this was a pretty tough total line. I'm with you. I was wavering back and forth there, Nagee. So you're in on Chicago, too? Yeah, I hate to be a full consensus guy here, but I'm Chicago and I'm leaning over. No, this is exactly how it goes.
Starting point is 00:07:19 Then we're going to hit one of these games or we're all over the place. I will say I'm much more confident in bears straight up. Yeah. I think so too. I think I feel a lot more confident in bears straight up than I do in Rams minus 9 and a half just because those backdoor covers and like playoff games like you don't see them get out of hand that often. We got to go to the weather corner here real quick, Mitchie. Snow is expected, bro.
Starting point is 00:07:46 Snow is expected. I wouldn't have it any other way in an AFC north matchup. Wouldn't have it. Or an FC, sorry. Wouldn't have it in a way. It's so interesting. because that is factored into the total already. Right. But we as better as I think, you know, like double count it. And where I get scared of snow games. But I do just, I, even you saying that, I still see both these teams trying to keep pace with each other.
Starting point is 00:08:11 No, I'm with you. And it's another one of those things where I think we get it way too much in our head that like, oh, snow game under, under, under. It's like, it's no stuff around about defense, bro. Absolutely. Yeah. So like, I think we got a. We got to watch out there a little bit.
Starting point is 00:08:25 My player props to watch. I'll jump in. I'm all over the Josh Jacobs unders. I think this goes a little bit into the fact that I think Chicago is going to control the game. But frankly, I just don't think Josh Jacobs is healthy. We've seen them go into Emmanuel Wilson a lot more in the past few weeks.
Starting point is 00:08:41 And Josh Jacobs carries is at 17 and a half for this game. Wow. I have to check if that's moved since I started taking my notes. But for me, that is like an absolute mortal lock hammer the under. Yeah, I'm with you on that. I just don't see like, especially if they're playing from behind two. I just, yeah, I'm not seeing it. My other pick, I love Colston Loveland to go over 40 and a half yards.
Starting point is 00:09:05 He's gone over 40 and a half, six of his last 10, and he's gone 90 plus of his last two games. We talk so much about rookie wide receivers coming on late in the year after their buy week. I think it's similar for tight ends. We didn't used to see rookie tight ends produce at this level, but now because of the position is starting to get so muddied with being receivers that I think we see a similar trend with them and to me like Colson Loveland is such an obvious breakout here. I love that. I'm with you. And to that point, I think if we're staying in Chicago, Mitch, I know this is again a little bit of a square one, but I like Caleb over 210 passing yards.
Starting point is 00:09:44 I like it. Very interesting. He put up 250 last time on 19 to 34, not even that efficient. Like, I can see it. That's going to be an interesting one because, it's all going to depend on how they play this. Are they going to have Caleb taking shots down the field or are they going to try to play it conservative? I tend to lean that they're going to play it conservative, but at the same time, if they are trying to keep pace with each other, eventually Caleb's going to have to try to sling it.
Starting point is 00:10:09 That's what I'm thinking. I just, it's a playoffs, man. You've got to open it up a little bit. Again, with that fire lit under him a little bit. I think last week, I mean, a pretty whatever ugly game, 1916, Caleb went out there and had a pedestrian 212, like, I gotta believe we'll sling it a little bit. It has been Johnson,
Starting point is 00:10:27 come on. Yeah. I'm gonna go for my parley for this one, take my two picks, Josh Jacobs under 17 and a half carries, Loveland over 40 and a half yards, and tack on DeAndre Swift touchdown. Ooh, ATTD, let's go, Mitch. I'm gonna lose my mind when those legs are looking great, and I see Menonga get in the end zone. I'm gonna, like,
Starting point is 00:10:46 throw my TV out the window. I wanted to do something here with my man, Luther Burden, but I don't feel as confident. I know he's a young buck in these games, but he's been coming on hot. I like his over-receiving yards at 40-plus, minus 1.2. There's something about betting Luther Burton that's like a drug. It's like getting Jameson Williams.
Starting point is 00:11:05 It really is. You're like, I know this is bad for me, but this is so fun. It really is. He's just electric, man. He's stolen my heart this year. I don't love any parleyes on this one, Mitch. I like this game, but I just think it's, I can see it being a gritty grinder of a, yeah,
Starting point is 00:11:19 I have seen North game, so 100%. No parles for the boy. No parley's for the boy. But I will say, I'm not doing this ever again. I've been falling into the DJ Moore trample last couple weeks. Oh, terrible.
Starting point is 00:11:31 Terrible. Why? I don't think I don't think I could possibly bring myself to put my hard-earned money on DJ Moore. And I do whatever. I'm like, this is going to be the week. Should we head down to Jacksonville? Let's head down to Jacksonville where the 13 and 4 Jacksonville Jaguars
Starting point is 00:11:47 hosts the 12 and 5 Buffalo Bills. I'll give my thoughts on this quickly. I think this was an outrageous spread to open as minus one and a half of the bills going down to Jacksonville. I think that they've looked like such a complete team to me, the Jaguars, that is. I think Trevor Lawrence is playing out of his mind right now, and I know you have a superhero on the other side of the ball and Josh Allen, but I think that I called it this yesterday a lifetime achievement award for the bills. I think we're rewarding them for five years of success when I don't necessarily think that this team has any business. being like, to me, I would have thought this game opened as minus two and a half Jacksonville. Dude, 100%, as it should have in my mind.
Starting point is 00:12:28 This is ridiculous, bro. I mean, I'm, I'm, maybe I'm drinking the Duval Kool-Aid a little too much here, but like, I'm all over Jacksonville here. I am all over them. This might be my pick of the weekend, bro. Pick of the week. Do you buy Buffalo going on the road? No, I don't.
Starting point is 00:12:43 I don't. I just don't, and I think Josh is more banged up than they're letting on. I just haven't loved anything out of the bills. I don't frankly love Sean McDermott this year. I don't leave me that. And the Jags got the Jews, baby. We're moving and grooving here. I think if Buffalo wins this game,
Starting point is 00:12:59 you're going to see, like, at least three touchdowns combined from Josh Allen and James Cook. Like, I don't see... That's it. I don't see Gabe Davis or Keon Coleman or Brandon Cook scoring or, like, the tight end duo that you can't figure out who it is. Yeah, so... All right, give me your...
Starting point is 00:13:18 player props to watch for this one. Oh, baby. You know who I'm liking in this one, Mitch. You know I'm loving Jacoby at 50 or more receiving yards. Give me that. Maybe the biggest outside of my guy up there in Seattle, the most impactful midseason edition of the season. By far. Wow. By far, bro. Who's your guy up there in Seattle, Rashid, Jeh. Yeah. Me and Mr. Electric over there. Returning puns every which way. Talk about a guy that's like a drug to bet on. When you hit a Rashid jehijit, bet you're like on cloud-on. Anytime he has a bonus hands, I'm in love. bro. He's a beast. Ladia out of New Orleans where there's nothing popping. Now he's up there making a run to the Super Bowl. But Jacoby all day. I just think this offense has really taken a step forward ever since he joined. It's just seamless.
Starting point is 00:14:00 He's right on there. He got the new contract already. Like, Jacoby over 50 yards. Book it, baby. I love this pet. I love this game, by the way. I'm going to go on the same side of the ball, same receiver room. I'm going to go Parker Washington over four and a half receptions. I like where your head's at, brother.
Starting point is 00:14:16 And I'll also tease that one of my reputation plays at the end of this episode is going to come from this game on the other side of the ball. Uh-oh. But give me your spreading over picks. I think we're going to have to go with Jags
Starting point is 00:14:30 covering that spread. I'm going to go Jacksonville as well. Over, I think, feels good too. I think so too. I had the under originally written down, but the more I've looked at this game, I think that Liam Cohen is going to put
Starting point is 00:14:46 his foot through the pedal. I don't think they're going to let up at all. 100%. We know Buffalo, even if it is just Josh Allen, they're going to find a way to put points on the board. Yeah, I think there might be like some frenetic paste kind of like, now I don't want to say garbage time points, but I do think there are going to be some points coming in bunches
Starting point is 00:15:03 at some point in this game. Doesn't it just feel that way? It feels that way. It feels like Josh Allen in the playoffs. Like, am I really going to take an under? No, I just don't, I just can't bring myself to do it. And I mean, since week nine, they've been averaging, Buffalo alone has been averaging 32.8.
Starting point is 00:15:18 points a game. It's like good stuff out of that offense. Liam Cohen's got it firing all cylinders. Trevor's not turning the ball over very much. I know he broke the streak a couple weeks ago, but really smart with the ball. I think Jackson was going to do a lot of heavy lifting on that over too. My parlay, I'm going to go with a fully correlated Jack's parlay. I like the money line.
Starting point is 00:15:34 I like Parker Washington over four and a half. And then give me Trevor Lawrence over 19 to half completions. I like that, dude. He's been efficient, dude. He's been very efficient, which hopefully for 19 and a half completions, you don't want him to be too efficient. No, I was going to say. And I think once that people keep forgetting and everyone that's leaning bills,
Starting point is 00:15:53 bills haven't been one and done in five straight years, but they also haven't gone on the road in the first game in those five years. That's a great point. Keep that in mind all you bills lovers out there. All right, let's move on to one of my least favorite games. I'm going to watch this, but I absolutely
Starting point is 00:16:08 hate watching the Philadelphia Eagles as they'll be hosting the San Francisco 49 years. This is, I'm with you, bro. Opening at Philadelphia minus three and a half total of 46 and a half what are your thoughts dude i've had such trouble betting both of these teams all year and now that it's like uh like a full like convergence of of the two teams i've sort of like gladly stayed away from i don't love a lot in this game and the offense for the philadelphia's i don't sound like a broken record here scares me
Starting point is 00:16:42 to the to the endth degree i don't have much faith in the at all in this bland high school run out and turn around, AJ Brown can't run the ball. But save for a hand, I don't have a stinking linebacker to save. They don't have any one, bro. So I think if there is a week. That defense has been Swiss cheese.
Starting point is 00:16:59 I know. And I know Robert Sal has been doing a bang-up job holding that thing together and keeping them in the playoff hunt and getting in the playoffs. But like, I think if there is a week for that Philly defense to come or offense to find its form, you'd think it's against this defense. but I don't know, man. I'm kind of staying away from this room, Mitch.
Starting point is 00:17:19 I don't love it. To me, three and a half feels like a rat line. It does. It is cheese. I know. I'm eating that thing right up. I'm trying to keep my biases out of this, but I do think that this Philadelphia team
Starting point is 00:17:36 is just not the one that we saw win the Super Bowl last year. No, I don't think so many issues, I think from a coaching side and from a play calling side here that I think a lot of, people like, I haven't loved watching Jalen Hertz this year, but I don't put all of the blame here on Jalen Hertz. I think this is a broken system and they need an offseason to kind of figure it out.
Starting point is 00:17:55 That being said, we've talked about it. The 49ers are not healthy. I think this is going to be kind of a tough game to watch, if we're being honest. I hope it's exciting. But my lean on this one, I am going to go San Francisco plus three and a half. I like it. I'm not going to give it as an official play. I like the value on them to win, but I'm going to leave it at three and I think I like 44 and a half. I think it's going to be one of the least exciting 44 and a half point total or like overs that you've ever seen, but I think they get over that. And just a guy I want to shout out as we look at player props to watch. I love Joanne Jennings. I think this is such a good spot for him in the red zone. He leads the team in receiving touchdowns. I don't think
Starting point is 00:18:38 George Kittles all the way healthy. I actually love his under 60 and a half yards. I do too. But what do you got for me? song and dance with Kittle every year and like, injured, comes back, injured. Well, but he's not fully back, but he's out there. It's like, I don't have enough faith in him to take any sort of over on any kind of player or prop. But I'm with you, Mitch. I mean, we're freaking lockstep boys again.
Starting point is 00:18:59 I'm looking at Joanne Jennings' anytime touchdown number plus 240. Yeah. There's some good value there, dude. Plus 240 is really good value for a guy that's just, he's the go-to guy for Purdy. I mean, of course, Christian McCaffrey. Right. When Brock Purdy drops back, he's looking at Joanne Jennings. Agreed. A nice big body in the end zone. I mean, the greedy guy, and he wants to sprinkle a little on Ricky Pearsall at plus 380, but I just don't know there. And I do, I have a premonition in my mind. The visualization, Mitch, the power of visualization. A.J. Brown pulling up in the Honda Civic, find in the end zone at plus 150. I just see it. I like that. This is a I see it pick. I have no, I have nothing but a vision behind that. All right. So what could go wrong? We're going with two anytime touchdown picks of just.
Starting point is 00:19:45 Juan Jennings and A.J. Brown. I'm going to stay away from a parlay. Okay. Yeah, I'm with you. I'm not touching that thing. Nothing I love here. Let's move on down to the Sunday night football game between the 14 and 3 New England Patriots and the 11 and 6 Los Angeles Chargers. I'll let you jump into things first. Oh, baby. I'm going full homer mode here.
Starting point is 00:20:04 The people know we're Pat's guys, right, deep down. We can let them know. I just, I am worried from a fan perspective on this one. I just, just the, the, the skeptic in me, but I think if we can manufacture a little bit of pressure and we can get to Justin Herbert in that line, sacked 54 times this year, I think we'll be all right. I think we'll be all right. I'm Marion Hampton, out of practice on Wednesday, I'm sure he'll go, but that's something to keep an eye on. Mine is three and a half, I'm feeling good on it.
Starting point is 00:20:36 The total, I think I'm ambivalent and I'm staying away, 46 and a half, right? right now is what I'm seeing. I don't know. I could see this being a little bit of a grinder because I do think this is Drake May's first playoff experience. He's been awesome all year, though. I'm not going to let that thing impact me. But there's no-name defense has been pretty solid,
Starting point is 00:20:56 and they've been finding ways to win and keep them in games and I think they can win a little bit ugly. And, you know, R ball likes to pound the ball and eat clock. So not going to touch the overrunner, but I feel pretty good about Patriots minus three and a half. Yeah, I'm with you. I'm all in on minus three and a half. That's another one that I would maybe sneak
Starting point is 00:21:12 down to an alt line of two and a half. The Patriots play this conservative and just make sure that they're, you know, taking control of this game. I'm also going to stay away from the total. If you put a gun to my head, I'm probably betting the under. But I think I'm most likely just staying away from it.
Starting point is 00:21:30 From a player prop perspective, these are two teams that I actually find it very difficult on a weekend, week-in, week-out basis to find value just because they spread the ball around so much. That's a good call. Because I get him at that that that zone like Force Diggs or Force Henry. Like, but you're right, there is a, there is a lot of everybody eats on either of these offenses. I'll go if, I like Quentin Johnson over on his receptions.
Starting point is 00:21:57 I think that regardless of the game script, like we are going to be seeing Justin Herbert dropping back a lot. I just, I don't think we're going to see a lot of success from Amari and Hampton running the ball against the Patriots. No, I'm with you. And so I like QJ over. three and a half receptions, and I think I'm leaving all of my player props at that. I think there's a little bit of a little bit of revenge to be had. You remember when the Chargers came in there and just whooped up on the paths last year, bro, and Ladd-McConkie.
Starting point is 00:22:24 Remember that? I do. My Godi is like full-on welcome to the NFL game. I don't think we're going to see anything quite that dramatic as we did last year with, with Ladd-McConkie just like absolutely tearing them up. And, you know, I like Spalane being back. I like Milton Williams being back in the middle. So hopefully we don't see a repeat of some of these.
Starting point is 00:22:42 games where we've gotten run over a little bit here in the last couple of weeks. But kind of the bend don't break necessarily. I do think we can see some value in a, speaking of revenge, a little Hunter Henry any time TD at plus 170. I like that. He's been Drake's guy, a little bit of a security blanket. Even when the ball is getting spread out, he still gets his. I know Diggs has been awesome this year, man.
Starting point is 00:23:05 He's a comeback player in my book. I'm a homer. Plus 165 anytime touchdown. Hadn't found the end zone a ton this year. but could see a little value there. I do love Ramandre getting in there and pounding it plus 140. Don't, it's another trap I fall into
Starting point is 00:23:20 because the number is often set at such a low and even like a reasonable number. I'll fall in the Demerior Douglas trap. I know it hasn't been a huge, huge beast of the offense lately, but at like, you know, an over under of 25 yards. It's, you know, plus...
Starting point is 00:23:36 It takes one. That's what's fun about the Pop Douglas lines. It takes one. Kind of like that for a small, sprinkle. I think old man River Keenan Allen, he's at 40. Don't hate that is some possession look there and an old guy that'll just kind of find
Starting point is 00:23:49 ways to box out and get some catches, even if it is playing from behind a little bit and them having to throw. But I really like the Hunter Henry and the Romandre anytime touchdowns Mitch. I just do. And we might be having a little more Remandre talk later.
Starting point is 00:24:06 Little teaser. But let's get into the last game before we talk about any of that. We are going down to Pittsburgh, where they're taking on the Houston Texans, the winners of nine straight games, the NFL's longest streak, opening at Houston minus three and a half and a total of 39.5.
Starting point is 00:24:26 This one's a... This is another game that just feels gross to me. I just think it's going to be a slog. What do you think? I think so, too. I mean, I'm all over Houston here. I think that this is just... I think this could be a massacre.
Starting point is 00:24:41 I do, too. I almost was a little bit surprised by three and a half, but then I thought about it. And, you know, I understand you've got Aaron Rogers. You're playing at home. You're going to have Renegade. It has all the makings of a Pittsburgh falls short at the last minute type of game.
Starting point is 00:24:57 Aaron Rogers throws together a little magic in the fourth, but they just don't pull it off. And so I will be playing this down at two and a half. I just, I like my key numbers. Going up there, I don't think scares them too much. as the old adage goes, Mitch defense travels. I don't,
Starting point is 00:25:16 does D.K. being back, do much for you? No. Not from a betting perspective. I find D.K. Talk about a guy if you want to, if you want to take the drug and have fun, go bet DK, longest reception or touchdown.
Starting point is 00:25:29 For me, it's just too volatile. Two-10 for the T-Ds is kind of tempting now that you say, let's do some drugs. It does. It does make sense. I mean, it's an under 40-point total. They're not expecting a lot of scoring.
Starting point is 00:25:44 I mean, I feel like there's like, of those 40 points, like I feel like Kimee Fairbairn's going to kick in like nine field goals. Honestly. So there's 27 points. Let's hope it in his hard to kick field goals there as it was last week, but you never know. I like Nico Collins over four and a half. That does jump out at me.
Starting point is 00:26:01 I like Dalton Schultz under four and a half. And then I like Ken Gainwell under 30 and a half rushing yards. Okay. I see this team falling behind early, abandoning the running. game. And Ken Daniel is going to be out there a lot, but I think whatever damage he does is going be done through the air. Yeah, I mean, I can see that. And what about your boy? Your boy, your boy, your boy, I know you're riding the Woody Marks train for a little bit.
Starting point is 00:26:24 I could not be more out on Woody Marks. The thing that infuriates me is we're going to hop on here at the same time next week. Go off. The Texans are going to have one and I have to talk about Woody Marks again. Dude, I know. He's been the bane of your existence here recently. All right. Can you your final thoughts on this game? I kind of, I, I wasn't going to go to the player prop well too deep in this one, but I do see this being a decently big Friar Mooth game. I can just see when it's football, whether it's gritty, it's the playoffs. Aaron Rogers needs a guy.
Starting point is 00:26:54 I see Pat doing a little something, something. So plus 128, 40 or more you're receiving yards? Not mad at it. I don't hate that at all. And I think his lines are going pushed down with DK back when in reality, I'm wondering how much volume DK is actually going to get. Dude, 100%. I'm not even, are you getting anything?
Starting point is 00:27:10 on your books. I'm not seeing anything on an Adam Thielen line yet. No, I'm not. I like the old man getting a catcher to. Because I got to imagine they're going to be low as fuck too. Well, we will keep everyone updated on our Twitter at the lineup cast on Twitter. If we see any Adam Thielen lines going into the weekend. The Adam Thielen lines. I know everyone on Twitter is going to be scouring for the Adam Thielen lines and I want to be first of the party. Is this a, is that the ultimate scraping the bottom of the barrel? It has to be. It has to be. Dude, we are leaving no stone unturned. I'm finding diamonds and the rough here. I can't wait. I can't wait to put like a mega nuclear whale bet
Starting point is 00:27:44 on Adam Thiel and like over a half of reception. Dude, he had the quietest three for 43 last week. Like it's kind of decent. That alt line on Adam Thiel in 40 yards has to be crazy. It's got to be, bro. It's got to be insane. This is totally off topic. Another guy that was not showing up in draft kings nor should he. But how often
Starting point is 00:28:02 you think Aaron will force it to MVS? I actually played MVS in a draft king's lineup last Did you really? On DFS. And man, he's looking to him a lot. I would not be shocked if you see some lines pop up. I'm staying away for the most part from any Pittsburgh pass catchers.
Starting point is 00:28:21 But you wanted to play an MVS line, man, I'm not going to hate on it. For all you real sickos out there looking for some Scotty Miller lines. Yeah, yeah. Okay, that one I'll hate on you. I'll hate on you for that. I'll hate on you for that. And that was every bet on the board. We're now moving on to our final segment, Reputation Plays of the Week.
Starting point is 00:28:40 We are jumping into our second to last segment of the week, Reputation plays where Jack and I both give our top two plays of the week. We are staking our reputation on these plays. I don't have my reputation. What do I have, brother? Exactly. For these reputation plays? I'm throwing on the ball cap. You know what this one is, Mitchie.
Starting point is 00:28:59 I know exactly what it is. This comes out for the reputation plays because I mean business right now. This is these other picks I was confident about, and I wouldn't steer you wrong by this one, Mitch, this is reputations on the line. On your gravestone, they're going to be talking about your wild card weekend picks from 2025. For this one I am going with a guy who's well I went to earlier in the show, Romandre Stevenson. We talked about his anytime touchdown.
Starting point is 00:29:25 I'm going with over 15 receiving yards in this one. Ramandre, great pass catching back. We saw it last week, touchdown. We saw it against the Jets a couple weeks ago. Five catches, 55 yards. Last week, great touchdown in the end zone to really ice that Miami game. I think we'll see him out of the backfield some in this one. The Chargers, not letting up a lot of yards to receiving backs,
Starting point is 00:29:47 but haven't faced a lot of great receiving backs down the stretch here. I think we can see Ramandre with, it's, again, in the Demer-Douglas one category, it only takes one or two. Just takes one. Just takes one. I think Remandre will be out of the back foot. I think Josh will scheme it up. We've seen it down the stretch.
Starting point is 00:30:02 I really feel confident about this one. I'm shocked to say this, but I'm actually a big fan of that pick. In our doc, all you had written was Ramondre. And so, yeah, in yesterday's episode, I talked about this. He was one of my fades this week in fantasy. Fades, oh, fades or faves? Fades. Oh, okay.
Starting point is 00:30:19 Well, D. Because that Chargers defense, I don't want to play anybody against them. You've got a backfield here. I'm worried there. Yeah. You've got a backfield here that is crowded. You've got him. You've got Trayvion. You don't know exactly where the looks are going to.
Starting point is 00:30:34 That being said, the receiving yards angle is one I can get behind. 15 is a very doable number in my. my book. I'm going to do another running back from the AFC and another receiving prop. I've got one boring one today and I went a little crazy for my second reputation play because I want them to put something nice on my gravestone. My first one I'm going with is Ty Johnson over one and a half receptions. I've been hammering this pretty much every single week and it's hit nine of the last 10 games. Wow. In a game script that I think the bills were behind behind. You've been hiding this one. You've been gatekeeping. I don't, I know the feeling. I know the feeling. I don't want the people knowing.
Starting point is 00:31:10 and the price moves. It's minus 154, so you're paying a little juice on it, but this thing's hitting like clockwork. And I foresee the bills playing from behind. I see Josh Allen having to drop back a lot, and he seems to love throwing the ball of Ty Johnson. So give me Ty Johnson over one and a half receptions. I love that pick.
Starting point is 00:31:28 We talk about Demer & Douglas, it just takes one for Ty Johnson. It just takes two. It just takes two, baby. Kind of contradicted myself if you were listening to the previous segment when we went through this Steelers game. I said I wouldn't get to touch much, but I'm seeing this team total at 17.5, and I'm leaning in the under big time here.
Starting point is 00:31:48 That Texan's defense scares the living crap out of me. First in so many metrics, first against the pass, top 15 against the run. I just think I can see this being a little bit of an Aaron Rogers seen ghost-type game. I can see him flying around out there, struggling to put up points in some of these games. And I know last week we had a run-on points during the second half,
Starting point is 00:32:11 but I just think Pittsburgh against top 10 defenses this year, they've been averaging like 15 and a half points a game, can kind of see this happening again on Monday night. I think that's a fantastic pick, and I think a lot of people are going to look at last week and see that stretch where, what was they scored, what, 14 points in the last four minutes? Yeah, it was insane. And I think a lot of people are going to have more confidence
Starting point is 00:32:33 than they should in the Steelers' offense, and people don't like to play unders in the postseason. I don't either. I usually don't. But I think this is a really, really strong pick. So Jack's official reputation plays of the week are Ramondre Stevenson over 15.5 yards receiving, as well as the Pittsburgh Steelers team total under 17.5. I have got a plus 390 play for my second reputation play. When I saw the number, it was so outrageous that I almost didn't want to do it.
Starting point is 00:33:01 But then I realized it was so outrageous I had to do it. Mitch I'm dying over here. Give me this play. Give me this thing. Jaden Higgins, anytime touchdown. If you listened yesterday, I love watching Jaden Higgins play. I think if he wasn't on that offense with Nico Collins, he would be emerging as a genuine wide receiver one right now. We're seeing the target share tick up a lot in the back half of the year, including the fact that he's second on the team in end zone targets.
Starting point is 00:33:29 He's got nine on the year. This third highest, of course, Nico Collins is the most of 14. The third highest is Dalton Schultz with five. So to me, and most of these have come in the back half of the year. So this is not an imposing secondary. And I'm personally not going anywhere near the Woody Marks experience or any of the Houston rushing attack. So in my brain, where are we getting these touchdowns? I mentioned yesterday that I like to see Houston get a touchdown on defense.
Starting point is 00:33:57 I could see that happening. That was a bold prediction. I think we see one go to Jaden Higgins. I think he gets one shot. I think we see one target go to him in the first. end zone. He might get it. He might not. But at plus 390, I really like this. And he's building that rapport with C.J. Stroud. We talked about Colson Loveland with this earlier in the episode. Guys coming on in the back half of the year, receivers, we always say it. But I think we're
Starting point is 00:34:23 always looking at the big name guys. We're always looking at the Emeka Abukas. We're always looking at the Tet McMillans. How about the guys like Jaden Higgins that weren't the hugest names going into the year? But he has really come on. And I think that this chemistry that he's God with C.J. Stroud is undeniable. Dude, I was going to say, you just look at the way you closed out of the season. Touchdown against the Chargers, touchdown against the Colts. It's going for three in a row. Going for a three in a row, baby. I like this.
Starting point is 00:34:46 All right. So my official reputation... Plus three-90 seems like a bargain. Plus three-nine feels like a bargain right now. My official plays end with Ty Johnson over one and a half receptions and Jaden Higgins anytime touchdown plus 390. Now, we're going to add a little bit of a reputation play segment here. It's not its own segment, but we're going to give our Super Bowl. Bowl picks before the end of the episode. Jack, give me your
Starting point is 00:35:08 AFC and NFC champions. And then I'll give mine and then we'll give our Super Bowl winner. I'm thinking we got a rematch here, Mitch, of a Super Bowl not that long ago. We might have a same pick. We're going to Rams, Patriots. Are we in the same boat? We're in the same boat. Oh, God. We're the same guy all episode. I love it. I think that the Patriots at Plus 420 are fantastic value.
Starting point is 00:35:30 I actually don't even, my personal pick is that we don't see Denver in the AFC championship. I really like Houston there. I don't need it. I don't have a lick of faith in that Denver offense. I just don't. And then for the Rams plus 240, I know we just saw this matchup between LA and Seattle just what
Starting point is 00:35:50 two weeks ago, three weeks ago. Seattle came out on top, but another weird fluky game. And if you're going to make me bet on Sam Darnold or Matt Stafford and Sean McVeigh when the lights are brightest, I'm going to go with the Rams at plus 240. And people got to remember in that game
Starting point is 00:36:05 like that game where Seattle ended up a couple weeks ago in OT. The Rams had like 500-something yards of total office. Yeah. Putting up on 600 yards and losing, that's not going to happen again. Who do I have winning this thing? I'm going to go full humor.
Starting point is 00:36:22 I got the Pats, maybe. Come on now. We both got the Pats. We got a scene of destiny, the heck of a year. I just don't. Yeah, I think it's Pats, maybe. We each have the Pats at plus 1,000. That being said, if you're not from New England, if you don't have an ethical obligation to say the Patriots.
Starting point is 00:36:40 I do think the Rams are also a fantastic value. I think they're the best team in the NFC right now. I think it's... I've felt strongly about San Francisco, but I can't get it out of my head what I saw last week against Seattle, and I don't think it would go any better against L.A. in the postseason, so...
Starting point is 00:36:57 No, dude. I'm with you. I'll stake my rep on a Rams Patriots Super Bowl, and we'll go to the Patriots winning their seventh ring. I don't feel... God, I love that. I don't feel... Once you go through the bracket here too much, like, I just don't feel as homerish
Starting point is 00:37:12 or as crazy picking the Rams, like just doing game by game and team by team. You know what I mean? I don't want to go full recap mode here, but like, the path is not nuts. It's not nuts at all. That was our reputation picks. Thank you everyone for watching.
Starting point is 00:37:26 We've got a brand new episode on Monday with me and Justin Mello reacting to the weekend slate, and then Jack and I will be back for our divisional round picks on Friday. As always, thank you for watching. Like, comment, subscribe. Hit the bell to be notified every time we drop a brand new episode. Jack, any last thoughts?
Starting point is 00:37:41 Dude, I'm excited for some playoff football. Hey, think about this. We got Thursday night, college football playoffs. Friday night, college football playoffs. Saturday, Sunday, Monday, five straight days of playoff football. It's a great week to be a ballhead. Sure is.
Starting point is 00:37:56 I'm excited. Let's go ahead. We'll catch you guys next week. Oh, see ya.

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