LINUX Unplugged - 281: 2019 Predictions

Episode Date: December 27, 2018

We get serious and bring in a special referee to help us lock in our Linux predictions for 2019. Special Guest: Alan Pope. ...

Transcript
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Starting point is 00:00:00 This is Linux Unplugged, episode 281 for December 26, 2018, our predictions episode. Welcome to Linux Unplugged, your weekly Linux talk show that's going off the unscript today. I don't know. My name is Chris. My name is Wes. And my name is Joe. Hello, gentlemen. Joe, it's great to have you on a special episode. I'll talk a little bit more about what Joe's doing here and what we'll be accomplishing. This is our opportunity to get out our crystal balls and make a prediction about 2019, where things are going in Linux.
Starting point is 00:00:46 a prediction about 2019, where things are going in Linux, and maybe, maybe my chance to finally dominate, finally dominate the predictions, because we're getting really serious this year. Don't you do this as a living? You should be able to get these things right. That's right. This year, I've watched the news closely, followed the trends and the signals, and I think I've narrowed it down to a bunch of solid wins. And Joe is here to be our ref,
Starting point is 00:01:05 to really be the bastard that says, no, no, no, you need to be clear about what you're predicting. This needs to be measurable, and Joe's going to hold us accountable this episode to make sure that the predictions that Wes, myself, and the Mumble Room make are easily understandable and easily measurable. So that way, at the end of next year, when we play this back, we can have easy yes or no wins.
Starting point is 00:01:30 Yeah, you even need acceptance criteria tests to evaluate so that you can actually say, yes, did this production happen? Exactly. And it's got nothing to do with me not being able to do any predictions because I've wasted them all on LAN and late-night Linux. Yeah, I suppose. I mean, it might have something to do with that. We do have a predictions episode of Linux Action News about to come out.
Starting point is 00:01:48 I just thought that since you correct Chris's grammar so often, you would just be a natural referee. That's true. Well, if anyone was going to call us on our BS, it would be Joe, right? So I felt like that was sort of perfect. But we will have a predictions episode of Linux Action News with a totally different set of predictions. I was really on my game this year.
Starting point is 00:02:07 With it being a full year of Linux Action News, like I've been deep in the news now. You're plugged in. You could say I'm unplugged too. And so I've been kind of carefully keeping track all year long. So I really brought my game face. But it's not just us. Also here with their predictions is
Starting point is 00:02:25 our virtual lug time appropriate greetings mumble room. Hello, everybody. Good morning. Happy holidays, everybody. So we've got Brandon in there. We got Mr. Nate in there bitten and M. Manson and Popey's in there and Sean and see
Starting point is 00:02:41 me and the drifter is also in there as well. And we got a is also in there as well. And we've got a few folks in the quiet listening. There is one stream, if you could tune into, that's like the most real-time, high-quality streaming. That's our mumble room. So you can actually, we have a room in there if you just want to hang out in the quiet listening, if you've got nothing to say. It's a direct-to-the-studio connection. Yeah, yeah.
Starting point is 00:03:07 Well, you know, before we start with the show, normally we would have like a pre-show and all that kind of stuff, but we dispensed with all of that because this is a, this is, we're not following any formats. And I thought I'd ask, I'd start with you, Wes, because I'm pretty sure I know the answer for Joe. But did you end up getting roped into any tech support this year? Oh, yeah, just a little bit. But I will say I was very willing. My younger brother has a, like, just a couple generations old was very willing. My younger brother has just a couple generations old HP laptop. It runs Linux pretty darn well, except it's got one of those Broadcom Wi-Fi chips. Wait, wait, wait, wait, wait,
Starting point is 00:03:33 wait, wait, wait, wait, wait. It already runs Linux? Yeah, it's already running Linux. How did this happen? So I'm doing Linux tech support. Isn't that great? That is really great. Like, for me, the family tech support is always really bad Android devices and super old Windows computers. See, my trick is I just install Linux anyway. Like, they just get it there.
Starting point is 00:03:51 And then I say, you know, it'll be a lot easier for me to help you if you just use Linux. I believe that's called the Chalaya maneuver. It very much is. Anyway, we were just able to pop it open. It was a little bit troublesome. There were some unfortunate screw decisions that HP made, but all in all, I bought an Intel chip that works way better with open source, plugged it in, rebooted it into
Starting point is 00:04:10 Ubuntu. I think he's got 1804 on there right now. Recognized it instantly, and now he's got solid Wi-Fi. So the process wasn't too bad, aside from the screws. Did you Amazon that part? Did you buy it in person? Did you come with it? What was your process for getting the card?
Starting point is 00:04:25 Well, you know, actually, I was able to look it up, and they sold, they had a Broadcom and an Intel OEM model for chips that they put in that model. So I was able to just go find one on eBay, and I shipped it to him, kind of saying, like, you could learn something. Try to install this yourself. I ended up being roped in to help, but I was more than happy. Nice. That is a ninja move.
Starting point is 00:04:41 I mean, here's hoping that, like, most of the time, I've never had to do that before. I mean, I've always known you could, of course, but laptops these days are just good enough, and that makes me hopeful for 2019. Hopefully that's the first and last time I do it. Joe, I'm pretty sure I know the answer. Do you get roped into any kind of family tech support scenarios
Starting point is 00:05:00 in the holidays, or have you successfully avoided all that? Well, I almost managed to successfully avoid my entire family so that was a win bravo but i did go and see my parents and my mom was struggling to find her bookmarks on her iphone on chrome on ios and she'd followed some guide and created like a folder within a folder within a folder oh no so she was kind of stuck in there so i had to go back, back, back, delete that, and then I showed her how to do it. So we'll see next time I see her, probably in the new year, go and see if she's fixed that.
Starting point is 00:05:33 But, yeah, I can't believe the only tech support I did was iOS-based, and I don't know anything about iOS. That's pretty great. Okay, well, you're not going to believe my family tech support story. So first of all, my Christmas day, after we got done with the kids early morning, we dropped them off with their mom and the plan was
Starting point is 00:05:49 to do nothing except for just slowly cook and watch Deep Space Nine. Oh, that sounds like the best day in the world. It was really good. First of all, the season finale
Starting point is 00:05:58 for season five of Deep Space Nine is really good. It's really, really good. Oh, you're just making me drool here. I'm on my way there. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:06:04 Plus we, you know, slow cook some meat, you know, and that was really good. It's really, really good. Oh, you're just making me drool here. I'm on my way there. Yeah. Plus, we, you know, slow cook some meat, you know, and that was really good too. But my mom talked me into coming down to visit. And she was, gosh, she really,
Starting point is 00:06:14 she next level manipulated me too. First, she got me to proudly describe my plans for having a super chill day. And then she comes in with the, but my car just broke down sob story.
Starting point is 00:06:26 Oh, no. And then comes in with, well hey, since you got nothing going on anyways, why don't you just come visit me real quick? And what do I say at that point? I put all my cards on the table. I can't say, sorry mom, I'm busy. There's no lies left. Yeah, I just, and she played me. She played me. I think she knows you pretty darn well. She does, and she knows she played me too.
Starting point is 00:06:42 So I end up down there at mom's house, and she's like, before you come down, I just want you to know I'm having this problem with my computer. I want to get access to my old data. I'm like, your old data? What do you mean your old data? Well, I got this older computer. And about five years ago, my mom, she got a new machine. And I'm like, oh, okay, all right. Well, what's the problem?
Starting point is 00:07:00 Well, I'm plugging the drive in, and I can't get to my data. I'm like, okay, all the drive in, and I can't get to my data. Okay. All right. Well, let's – so I get down there, and what I discover is that she has an old power PC Macintosh. Okay. That she is trying to plug into her son's, my half-brother's, Windows 10 PC. Plug in how? Well, she's got the power connector plugged in. Oh, no.
Starting point is 00:07:25 But there's no IDE connector in the entire case, right? It's all SATA. His thing is all SATA, right? And it's an old IDE cable. So she's plugging it in and it's spinning up. And she knows enough to know, like, the drive's spinning and it's powered up. Oh, wow. And she knows enough.
Starting point is 00:07:39 She's looking at the other ones like, the connectors are small, but it's not showing up. I don't see a D drive, and I want to get to my files. But she doesn't know that's HFS. She doesn't know that's a total different connection interface, right? So I brought down with me one of these old toasters. Do you remember these, like a USB toaster?
Starting point is 00:07:56 Oh, yeah, you just dump a drive in, and then Yeah, and it's an old IDE toaster with a USB B to USB A. So I take the old ThinkPad down there that has a handy USB-A port, you know, one of those quote-unquote legacy ports that nobody uses, and I plug it in,
Starting point is 00:08:09 and of course, you know, GNU slash Linux, and I got the HFS drive. I mount her new computer over the network, and I copy the data over for her. Beautiful. Yeah, it was, but just to go in there, and like not quite knowing what to expect,
Starting point is 00:08:22 and to walk in on this Windows 10 PC, which my mom has attempted to essentially take apart, and like the, you know, the case is still open and the drive's just hanging there by the power adapter. And it like, it's slowly dawning on me what she's attempting to pull off. And my thought was like, you know, mom, it just would have been easier to power up the old Mac, put it on the network, just copy the files over and put it on an external hard drive or Yeah, any of that, right? But, you know, she just thought, to her, like, it's a disk. It's a computer. It's the same kind of connector for the power. It's the level of knowledge that's, like, just enough to be very dangerous.
Starting point is 00:08:54 Yeah. That just about describes it. So that was my holiday tech support experience. And I didn't plan to have any because I kept it pretty minimal. This is my most minimal family thing. I only went to two official family events,
Starting point is 00:09:10 different family events. And I thought I had, I had gotten out just completely with unscathed and then this came in at the last minute as a,
Starting point is 00:09:18 as a little twist. Well, you're a good son. It was pretty funny. These old, these old power Macs, like they have these reflective mirrored drives. Oh, yeah.
Starting point is 00:09:27 They call them the mirrored doors. And then it's got like these air intake vents, like a Cadillac, to like take in air to like cool the G4 processor. It's a ridiculous contraption. And it makes a lot of noise. It was a very loud Mac. It was a different era. But all right. That's not what
Starting point is 00:09:45 we're here to talk about today. This episode is really about our predictions for 2019. We wanted to get it in, in 2018, firmly while still inside the boundary of 2018. So that way, these are clean predictions. Fair and fair. Made before the year arrives. Now to some of us, these predictions will seem a little obvious. To others, they're going to seem like long shots. What we decided to do this year was set some ground rules that we all have to play by. We're taking it serious this year. And I'm going to warn you, I apologize ahead of time. After much deliberation, we have decided to introduce a process. None of us like it, but it had to happen. First of all, we need a ref. That's Joe's role.
Starting point is 00:10:29 Joe will be playing the role of the referee, keeping us on the straight and narrow, making sure that all predictions are measurable, making sure that the predictions are clear and specific. And Joe will be asking us at the end, after we debate them if needed, or need any clarification. Right, a refinement process of the proposed to the group. Which is a friendly space. No judgment. At the end of that process, Joe will ask us to restate the prediction one more time. So that way it's clear and concise. And once the prediction is made final, it will be signaled with the final ding.
Starting point is 00:11:04 That means prediction locked. And we'll move on to the next one. final, it will be signaled with the final ding. That means prediction locked. And we'll move on to the next one. No changing it. It is in the official show record. Now, I'm very excited about this. Do you have predictions? Because they're not in the dock yet. No, no. Yeah, I got them right here. I know, you sneaky jerk.
Starting point is 00:11:19 I thought about keeping mine, too. So, Mumbaroom, you are welcome. I just have to ask, is anyone going to make the year of the Linux desktop prediction? Because if you are, we can just get that
Starting point is 00:11:31 out of the way right now because let's be honest. Hands up. Everybody wants that one. Does anybody in the Mumble Room want to make a prediction that is actually legitimately the year of the Linux desktop?
Starting point is 00:11:41 Every year is the year of the Linux desktop. All right. Very fair. I mean, I think that's the answer we've all decided to go with that makes us comfortable at this point. We keep telling ourselves that.
Starting point is 00:11:52 Joe, I think you can be the decider there. Do you think, it's your call, is that a prediction on Bittens or, I mean, every year is the year of Linux desktop? Doesn't feel like a prediction to me. No, anything to do with year of Linux desktop just gets instantly taken out of the equation, I'm afraid.
Starting point is 00:12:07 We're not having it. We had to have that conversation. People listening, they want to know. We had to have that conversation. I do think there could be room for a Chrome OS prediction in this space, but that's not one of mine. So I think maybe I'll start, and then maybe you can give one. But I thought I'd start with one to help us just warm up
Starting point is 00:12:27 because this is my most vague prediction, and I think we need to kick it around a little bit. But I think this is going to happen, and I don't think you're going to be surprised when I say this. One of my first predictions for 2019 is that dark mode for the web becomes a design trend and websites start going dark. Is this something universal or is it a toggle?
Starting point is 00:12:49 Is this some sort of universal cookie that gets set and shared? What's my experience in the dark mode? Do I have to define that? Maybe not. I don't feel like I have to define that because I think each site could implement it differently. But you just think a lot of sites will have a dark mode or will be just a dark design.
Starting point is 00:13:05 Yeah. I mean, there's several factors at play here. So you've got the fact that dark mode has been an option on Linux forever. You've got commercial desktops that are offering more dark modes now. You've got the fact that OLED screens on mobile devices have significant battery savings when you use dark mode. So there's a lot of pressure mechanisms. The other one that I've noticed is a general user pressure. And you saw me talking to one of the users at System76. When I've been, as I travel around, Wes, and talk
Starting point is 00:13:32 to people, when I travel around and talk to the people, Wes, they tell me about the dark mode for the browser. And I've gotten, this really is true though. I say it like I'm joking, but it is true. I've had different people tell me different types of dark mode extensions for the web browser to make it look good, and I've gone all in. I'm using dark mode on Chrome and Firefox for everything. I have Dark Reader on Chrome, which is great. It's great. It does a great job of making sites that aren't designed for dark mode at least readable.
Starting point is 00:14:01 And I think when you combine the fact that users are manually changing the site design, so they're going dark. Yes, right. I mean, dark mode CSS hacks are pretty common. And dark mode is much better if you design for it than if you force it. So websites are going to have that pressure, plus the OLED screens like I mentioned, plus the fact that commercial desktops are going dark,
Starting point is 00:14:20 and a lot of the user applications are going dark to complement the change of the desktop. I just think this is going to be a thing. I don't have a definition of how it's going to be implemented, Joe. I defer to your judgment. Well, the referee has to step in here. The first rule is predictions must be measurable. How are we going to measure this? Okay. All right. Fair. That's fair. That's a good question.
Starting point is 00:14:41 I think you start seeing major websites go dark. That's still. That's a good question. I think you start seeing major websites go dark. That's still pretty vague. What are you going to say? Google.com? Is that going to go dark? Facebook? Oh, okay. Okay.
Starting point is 00:14:53 All right. So it's either Google.com or New York Times. One of those goes dark. Okay. How's that? All right. Yeah, that's measurable. All right.
Starting point is 00:14:59 One of those. All right. All right. Now I'll summarize it up. 2019 will be the year of the web going dark mode, and a major property like Google.com or the New York Times will roll out to fanfare a dark mode. Prediction locked. That felt really good.
Starting point is 00:15:16 Nicely done, sir. Thank you. I really hope that happens also because I also love dark mode. Yeah, I mean, I just think it's great. That's my, that's, by the way, that was my vaguest, most non-Linux prediction. The rest are all on topic. What do you got? Okay, so I think in 2019,
Starting point is 00:15:32 GNOME will have improved enough that you are using it on at least one system by year's end or used it on a system for like a couple of months. You bastard. Oh, man. Okay. I mean.
Starting point is 00:15:53 That's fairly measurable. That means that Chris just has to have used it for at least 60 days on one machine in 2019. Yeah. Yeah. I agree. I agree. I hate that. I hate what that says about me, and I hate. I agree. I agree. I hate that.
Starting point is 00:16:05 I hate what that says about me, and I hate that I think you're right. I can't really argue with that. I'm trying to think if I can poke any holes in it. Well, my hole that I've got to poke in it is, what if it's just a machine that's tucked off in the corner that hardly ever gets used? Surely it has to be either your ThinkPad or your main workstation or the RBS machine or something like that. And it can't just be like for a couple of weeks, even if it's like three weeks for a review, either your ThinkPad or your main workstation or the RBS machine or something like that.
Starting point is 00:16:27 And it can't just be like for a couple of weeks, even if like three weeks for a review, and then I switch off of it. No, it's got to be you using it personally to get work done. Yeah, okay. All right. So I think, okay. All right.
Starting point is 00:16:39 I don't think I can poke any holes in that. Do you want to restate it in a final summary? I predict that in 2019, Chris is using the GNOME desktop on at least one production machine for 60 days or longer. All right, prediction locked in there. And I think that has a high chance of success. That's funny. All right, Mumble Room, if anybody wants to jump in with a prediction, go ahead.
Starting point is 00:17:02 I have one. All right, Popey, go ahead. If anybody wants to jump in with a prediction, go ahead. I have one. All right, Popey, go ahead. In 2019, Apple will announce and ship a non-X86-based MacBook line of computers. All right. Okay.
Starting point is 00:17:18 Meaning, specifically, ARM. Yeah. Their own ARM sauce. Wait, not RISC-V? Come on. I was going to leave the door open for RISC-V, but then I thought, no, that's just ludicrous. So you think so, huh?
Starting point is 00:17:31 And how would you see that? Would you see that as more like the bottom of the consumer line, or do you see that as like the Mac Pro that's supposedly going to ship? I see it. I see it. The new MacBook Air that has amazing battery life, and we've taken everything we've learned from making amazing ARM processors in phones and tablets over all the years.
Starting point is 00:17:49 And we've baked that into this device that is lightweight, silent, and long battery life. All those kind of things that people ask for from a MacBook Air. And it will have all the usual display and the connectivity and all that kind of stuff. It's still running OSX. Yes, it'll run OSX,
Starting point is 00:18:06 but the key thing that relates it to Linux is it will make it much harder for us to run Linux on that device. Sorry, if I'm being the referee here, I have to correct you, it's macOS, not OSX. Yes, you're right, you're right. Thank you. Thank you, referee, you're right. You're very, very right.
Starting point is 00:18:18 Yeah, that's what I was wondering, is how compatible will these be with Linux? And I'll tell you, we already have some insights and it is not very. Because the T2 chip, everybody's been talking about with the Mac Mini and the other devices, the drives simply do not show up for Linux because Linux has no software support in any regards for that SATA controller. The T2 chip that controls Touch ID or the touch bar if your Mac has one, The T2 chip that controls Touch ID or the Touch Bar if your Mac has one is also the SATA controller for those MVME drives that are in the MacBook Pro. And Linux has no drivers.
Starting point is 00:18:55 And Apple will not be writing any drivers for Linux. Why would they? And if Popey's prediction is to come true, it is the expansion of this T2 platform, perhaps they'll call it the T3 platform or something like that, that will consume and replace the Intel chip. They'll just grow the existing ARM board that's already based on one of their A-series processors running an isolated version of iOS with a secure enclave. They'll just grow that out to be a larger motherboard or a logic board, as they call it. And it could even ship with a low-end Intel mobile processor
Starting point is 00:19:26 that could be spun up on demand to run applications in compatibility mode. I mean, I don't think it's ideological. They have their own design goals and they're going to use whatever tech they can to meet them. I don't think the board even needs to be that much bigger to go in a laptop. I mean, if you look at the size of MacBook Air logic boards,
Starting point is 00:19:42 they're pretty tiny. And there's the associated circuitry for charging and the IO and stuff like that. But there's not actually a lot different between an iPhone and iPad and a laptop in Apple's eyes internally, other than a giant battery and a massive screen. Yeah, I don't really mean in size, I mean in functionality. And I think you could achieve it with something that is comparable to what the iPad Pro does today. Yeah, I don't really mean in size. I mean in functionality. And I think you could achieve it with something that is comparable to what the iPad Pro does today. Yeah, exactly.
Starting point is 00:20:09 I think we need a bonus point here for what it's going to be called. So let's all speculate on what this new product is going to be called. I'm going to predict the MacBook Helium. I think to make it normalized, they'll just call it the new MacBook Air. Yeah, I think it will just be a continuation of the MacBook Air line. Yeah. Okay, well, this is all pretty specific, but the ambiguity there is whether or not it's going to have an x86 chip as well that will be secondary, like the ARM chip secondary now. Popey, are you saying it's going to be pure ARM with no x86?
Starting point is 00:20:41 Yes, pure ARM, no x86. It will be a non-x86 laptop. laptop right so you need to lock that in then let's have it in a nice editable chunk very succinct in 2019 apple will announce and launch a line of laptops called macbook air which will feature arm based processors and no x86 processors prediction locked there we go we're doing great guys excellent thank you for your contribution feature ARM-based processors and no x86 processors. Prediction locked. There we go. We're doing great, guys. Excellent.
Starting point is 00:21:08 Thank you for your contributions. That was a good one. Yeah, because I could totally see that happening. Before the iPad Pro with lightning, maybe not. But now with the iPad Pro that has USB-C, I feel like I could see that. All right, are you ready for my next prediction? All right. My next one that I'm not as confident, I kind of go up in confidence as I go,
Starting point is 00:21:26 but my next one is Clear Linux has a great 2019 by just about anyone's measure. It will see specifically more press coverage and more coverage of using Clear Linux as a desktop operating system. Now obviously you covering
Starting point is 00:21:42 it on one of your shows doesn't count. Really? Okay, fair. All right. Excluding Jupyter Broadcasting's coverage. Can we exclude Pharonix's coverage as well? Oh, that's... Here's the thing. It's really kind of a bet on the fact that IKI's back in there
Starting point is 00:21:58 and they're starting to talk about it more and they're sort of solidifying their open source software group and getting them out there talking more. I feel like Intel is trying to make a play to keep relevance in the data center while they're still relevant. And Clear Linux is a key part of that strategy.
Starting point is 00:22:18 Right, so referee time again. Although I do agree with you that it is going to be a great year, we're going to be talking about Clear Linux a lot more. But that's not measurable. We need some quantifiable thing. I don't know how you could come up with it. Is it a number of articles or is it being featured on a certain website?
Starting point is 00:22:35 How high it is on DistroWatch? No, no. There's a good random chance it'll just happen. Yeah, that's never going to be it. I was thinking articles, but I don't know, again, how to exactly measure that other than we have a sense of how much things get covered because we watch it on a day-to-day basis. But I don't really, I don't have like a spreadsheet
Starting point is 00:23:00 where every time I see a clear Linux story, I tick another number in the column. So I'm not quite sure how to measure that one. Well, don't make me throw this out then. I mean, it could be throwable. It could be. Wes, can you think of a way we could measure it? What about like an article? See, the thing is, anything I say could influence that blogger not to do it.
Starting point is 00:23:23 You know, like if I say so-and-so will write a post about setting up Clear Linux as the ultimate desktop, they may not do it just out of spite because I said it on this show. Because they're bastards like that. I mean, you could just set like a certain number of articles from a, you know, we can blacklist some sources,
Starting point is 00:23:40 Pharonix or whatever, you know, past Pharonix. I think the very, the specificness of Pharonix needs to be mentioned just because they're a very pro intel um uh mouthpiece if you like and we'll post about clear linux at the drop of a hat okay how about this five articles about clear linux in the server space and the desktop space that are not ph Onyx and not on this show. Good? Are we good with that? What do you say, Ref?
Starting point is 00:24:07 That seems to me a little bit too low, really, because if you looked at how many articles there were over the last year, it's got to be more than five. You think so? Okay. Now, you could say something of a certain caliber, right? Like if it was like an Ars or something of a, you know, like a mainstream article more so than a Linux world. Yeah, like five on Ars Technica, that would do.
Starting point is 00:24:27 That's not going to happen, though. That's not going to happen. Ubuntu doesn't even get five on Ars Technica. They might get five. Barely, they might get five. I mean, okay, how about 50 across the industry that's not for Onyx and not Linux unplugged? Yeah, that's going to be pretty hard to try
Starting point is 00:24:45 and count up though, isn't it? It's going to be easier if you just say three on ours or something. Yeah, I know. What can I say?
Starting point is 00:24:51 I'm bullish. I'm bullish on Intel. I'm bullish on Clear Linux. I think a lot of people on Linux are looking for specific types of optimized
Starting point is 00:25:00 performance and they have workloads where they need to eke every bit of performance out of a machine that's sitting in their rack. And when you've got the manufacturer of a CPU that's making a Linux distribution
Starting point is 00:25:10 where they say they're building every bit of software in the entire stack optimized for their processors, that might sell. We could make a little Slack channel or something. Every article we see about it, we just post it in there and go back next year. I'm going to have to start keeping track after this. This is one of those predictions that's going to make a year's worth of work for yourself. Damn it. We just post it in there and go back next year. I'm going to have to start keeping track after this. This is one of those predictions that's going to make a year
Starting point is 00:25:26 worth of work for yourself. Damn it. Yeah, I'm not counting this up, so it's on you. Alright, I'll keep track. So, are we good with 50? Are we good with 50? What do you say? Yeah. Alright. And I'm going for articles that are talking about using
Starting point is 00:25:41 Clear Linux or talking about using it for the desktop or talking about why it's great for containers or great for machine learning, like articles that are very, you know, like, hey, check out this up-and-coming distro that you don't know about that we've all been talking about for years now. Do they count if it's a huge vulnerability in it?
Starting point is 00:25:56 Yes. Yeah, because if it gets coverage, that means it's of an industry importance that it gets mentioned. Yeah. All right. I think you better look it in then. All right.
Starting point is 00:26:05 So, in summary, 2019, we'll see 50 publications about Clear Linux. The Clear Linux hype will grow, excluding articles from Foronix and coverage from Linux Unplugged. Prediction locked. Nicely done. You guys made me work for that one. That's what the rules are about. All right, Wes. All right, Wes.
Starting point is 00:26:29 So we'll go to the mumble room after you, but I want to get one more of yours on the record. Wes Payne. Okay, so this one we'll need some help cleaning up as well. In 2019, Red Hat drops either just explicitly or by key people leaving support for one major component of the free desktop. Wow. I think we need
Starting point is 00:26:50 some examples of the components here. And that's where, yeah, that's where we need some help cleaning it up. Okay, so specifically you're thinking of major components like Pulse Audio or Bolt or Network Manager or something in the GNOME stack. Something that we would be like, oh.
Starting point is 00:27:08 Boy, I got to tell you, that makes me very uncomfortable when you say that. Yeah, I'm not happy saying that. I don't know. I'm just, if it happens, I want to be on credit. Oh, okay. All right. So what do you think, Ref? How specific does Wes need to get in this?
Starting point is 00:27:23 Because this is one of those where there's a lot of room, even for a project just to be end of life because it's the end of the project. Yeah, I think this is a little bit too vague. I think you're going to have to lock it down to, I don't know, maybe pick five or six actual examples of it and say that one of those is going to go away because there's just too many aspects here. Oh, like a range of five projects. Yeah, okay.
Starting point is 00:27:45 So, I mean, oh, that's tough because like you could say system D, but then there's so many things like underneath system D that could technically qualify. There's also aspects of Wayland to consider. Yeah. And what happens if they drop Pulse in favor of Pipewire, for example? Well, and this, you know, really when you zoom out, this is why the IBM purchasing Red Hat news was so big specifically for us and our audience because there's so many projects that Red Hat does manage as part of a comprehensive desktop support
Starting point is 00:28:19 that we don't really talk about very often. There's a lot of free desktop components that are just maintained by Red Hat for years now that we just all rely upon and don't really think about. And so when you start talking about some of those going away, what you're talking about is one of the pillars of the Linux desktop going away or transitioning away. And that makes me really uncomfortable.
Starting point is 00:28:41 You're squirming over there. I am. I just want my stuff to work. Okay, so, yeah, network manager. Let's do pipewire, sure, okay. Stratus? Yeah, Stratus. We could say that. That's three. What else? Bolt, you said?
Starting point is 00:28:54 Yeah. That's kind of small. You also, yeah, it feels like Bolt and FWFD and the LVFS stuff has, like, no chance of going away. Like, that stuff's more important than ever right now. That's relevant on the server. Yeah, really desktop-focused things is really what I'm thinking. Okay, ref.
Starting point is 00:29:12 Okay, I got a suggestion, but it's not exactly what he's going for. What about punting GTK4 for another year? Does that qualify? Possibly, yeah. Possibly. That seems reasonable. So that could yeah. Possibly. That seems reasonable. So that could be your last one.
Starting point is 00:29:28 Yeah, okay. Nothing happens in that department for another year. What about tying in with your other one, kind of hedging your bets and saying that they completely dropped GNOME and called for plasma? I feel like that has a momentum on GNOME is better than ever right now. Nice to come back to that. So I feel like it's got a better shot than ever right now. I don't know, Wes. All right, you've got to come up with a five.
Starting point is 00:29:48 You've got to come up with all five. So we've got, what do we have so far? We've got Network Manager. We've got Pipewire. We've got Stratus. We've got, I don't know about Bolt, but that's the fourth one. And then the fifth one is GTK4 doesn't ship. Okay, so you ready to lock it in then, Wes?
Starting point is 00:30:04 All right, I predict in 2019, Red Hat drops support either just explicitly or key people leave for one of these projects. Network Manager, Pipewire, Stratus, Bolt, or they just sort of delay any work on GTK4. It just doesn't ship. In 2019. In 2019. I'm going to lock it.
Starting point is 00:30:23 One of those things. I'm not happy to say it. Okay. It's locked in. That was rough. That was rough. Mumble Room, you got one that we can shift gears to? Anybody else have a prediction?
Starting point is 00:30:33 Something happier. I've got one. I predict sometime in 2019, a major piece of enterprise software will be ported to Ubuntu 1804, such as SAP or Active Directory. Ooh. Active Directory for Linux. That would be massive. Microsoft SQL Server is available on Linux now,
Starting point is 00:30:57 so if it is ported to 18.04, there is a 50-50 chance it will be distributed as a snap. Whoa. Oh! Going for a bonus point there. What do you say, Ref? Is this allowed? Yeah, well, I was going to say the snap thing.
Starting point is 00:31:15 Piper, you can probably tell us whether this is going to come true or not already. But I guess your lips are sealed on this one. Yeah, that would have to be in the works. Keep it clean. Suddenly Mumble's not working for him. Oh, weird. Strange. He's having connection issues. He can't comment on it. Yeah, that would have to be in the works. Keep it clean. Suddenly Mumble's not working for him. Oh, weird. Strange. He's having connection issues.
Starting point is 00:31:28 He can't comment on it. Oh, no. No, you're fine. You're fine. We're just kidding. It's fine. But yeah, that's a pretty good one, I got to say. All right.
Starting point is 00:31:35 As someone who used to work on SAP, that's a super interesting one to pick. I mean, if you're going to explicitly put that in your prediction, that's an interesting one to pick. I mean, if you're going to explicitly put that in your prediction, that's an interesting one to pick. But you're not, and you're just talking about something of the size or the order of magnitude. I'm just using SAP as an example, because that's a really big piece of enterprise software I'm using as an
Starting point is 00:31:55 example, because that's the kind of scale that I'm talking about, of large enterprise applications. I don't know, I think maybe you ought to name a couple. I think you should go on the record. What do you think, Ref? Yeah, I think so. I think we're going to have to have
Starting point is 00:32:09 some names of applications here. I think SAP is a good one. I think SAP, Active Directory, I think those are good ones. I think a great, well, not necessarily SAP. SAP is pretty vague because there's multiple applications. I think a good benchmark would be SAP HANA.
Starting point is 00:32:26 All right. So what do you say, Sean? Can you summarize that up to lock it in? I predict at some point in 2019, a major piece of enterprise software such as SAP for HANA or Active Directory will be reported to Ubuntu 18.04. will be reported to Ubuntu 18.04. And if such a thing is done, I predict a 50% chance that it will be distributed as a snap.
Starting point is 00:32:55 I like that. That is locked in. That's a good one. I'm surprised. You know, I was trying to think of some enterprise ones specifically because a lot of times on this show we focus on the desktop, but no one's joking. We all understand the enterprise is way, way, way bigger for Linux, and we should be talking more about it than we do, but it's more fun to talk about this stuff. That's right.
Starting point is 00:33:13 I predict that in 2019, all virtualized guests will be utilizing encrypted memory. Oh, that'd be nice to see, but quite the performance hit. Do you think people would really want to do that at scale? I think so. Oh, absolutely. And I think that what they're going to do is integrate hardware solutions as part of that encryption. Hmm. What do you think, Wes?
Starting point is 00:33:34 Could you see that? Could be a feature for sure. Like the premier cloud providers roll it out first? I mean, yeah. I guess it's the percentage, right? That's the question. I could definitely see it increasing and would like to. Yeah, yeah, that's a good point.
Starting point is 00:33:47 How much of a market domination are you talking about here? That's a good question. I'm going to say at least a 15% to 20% adoption. I would go more, but I want to be conservative. What do you think, Ref? Is that enough to really say it's a clear win or not? Well, I think that if you're going to put a percentage on it, then that's something we can measure, so that's fair enough. Okay, all right, all right. Ref says it's a clear win or not? Well, I think that if you're going to put a percentage on it, then that's something we can measure, so that's
Starting point is 00:34:06 fair enough. Okay, alright, alright. Ref says it's good. Alright, alright. I guess we lock it in. Alright, alright. Go ahead. Sum it up, Drifter, and lock it in. I predict that in 2019 that 15 to 20% of enterprise virtualization will utilize
Starting point is 00:34:21 encrypted memory. That's a good one. That's a really, really good one. A couple of good enterprise ones there. Nice one. I hope that one does come true. I think out of all the ones we've done, the one that I hope for the most is that. All right.
Starting point is 00:34:34 I think it's my turn. I think it is. This one I get a little nervous about, and I'm almost positive it's going to happen. Fuchsia app development will begin in 2019, taking advantage of existing Android tools such as Android Studio and the Android Emulator to build software for Fuchsia
Starting point is 00:34:51 that runs on Android and Fuchsia at the same time. Isn't that already happening? Is it? I don't know if it is. I know that I follow the news very closely and there's indications that it may be in the works and that certain components are showing up in repositories, but I don't know that it's be in the works and that certain components are showing up in repositories, but I don't know that it's actually going to happen.
Starting point is 00:35:08 Those repositories, as we record right now, are empty. So are you talking about internal to Google or are you going to go out and say external app developers? I don't know if it's like a Google I.O. level announcement or if it's a smaller soft launch style thing, but I'm saying if you have Android Studio, by the end of 2019, you can start building Fuchsia applications. Well, yeah, people will be able to do that.
Starting point is 00:35:32 But are you predicting that people will be doing it or just that the ability will be there? Oh, absolutely both. Absolutely both. Yeah, I mean, you just take it as a given. But there's really nothing locked in at this point that any of this happens in 2019. Google could take another year to soft build this thing and experiment with more devices,
Starting point is 00:35:51 and they could, you know, maybe announce it in 2020, for all we know. Like, there's really no... I mean, so this is one of these things about these predictions. When we sit at this point in the year, we have a recency bias, and we think things are a bigger deal than, like, the things at the beginning of the year, we have a recency bias and we think things are a bigger deal than like the things at the beginning of the year. And I point to how excited we all got, me specifically,
Starting point is 00:36:10 about Bitcoin last year, right? Because Bitcoin just seemed like a foregone conclusion at the end of last year that it was going to be huge. And now, as we record, it's at $3,806.93, not that I'm keeping track. And it really was a huge flop. But we would have taken it as a given at the end of last year. So I'm not so sure fuchsia is necessarily a given when you take the whole year in context. But I'm going out on a limb and I'm saying, a limb, a lin, what is it, a ledge? Out on a limb.
Starting point is 00:36:37 Limb, thank you. I'm going out on the limb. What? No. Limb is a lunar module. Never mind. I'm going out on the limb, not the ledge. IIM is a lunar module. Never mind. I'm going in on the LIM. LIM, not the ledge.
Starting point is 00:36:47 I'm taking a risk here. And I'm going to say that developers will be creating Fuchsia applications and running them in emulators and getting ready to ship them on Fuchsia devices. How do we measure that? Well, we'll start seeing fuchsia applications show up. We'll start seeing... How many? Well, so first of all,
Starting point is 00:37:07 Google will have to make an announcement that it's go time. So that'll be a clear indicator, I think. Do you think this will show up in a beta of Android Studio in 2019 or a final release in 2019? Maybe just the next release. Yeah, just really soon. Yeah, like really soon. Like maybe not the next release,
Starting point is 00:37:25 but the release after that. I think the first way it'll show up is you'll have the Fuchsia emulator, which will be like a generic Google device that runs Fuchsia that you can run
Starting point is 00:37:34 your application on to make sure that if you're writing an Android application that's going to run on Fuchsia that everything's solid. That'll be how it first rolls out. And that'll be,
Starting point is 00:37:42 I would think, around Google I.O., but who knows. Okay, so we need to be specific here. Are you going to say a third-party developer will release an app for Fuchsia? And if so, are you going to go as far as to say what that might be or who it might be? Are you going to say like Facebook Messenger or something like that, maybe? Oh, here's the problem. I'm not saying Fuchsia devices are shipping in 2019. I'm not saying that.
Starting point is 00:38:07 So there may be zero reason, really. There'd be no reason for a developer to ship this Fuchsia application because there's no device. But what you'll be able to start doing is making sure that the Android applications you're building run okay on Fuchsia. Just like you can run Android applications
Starting point is 00:38:22 on some Chromebooks right now, you'll be able to run Android applications on Fuchsia. Just like you can run Android applications on some Chromebooks right now, you'll be able to run Android applications on Fuchsia devices. And that's what developers will be testing. Now, how do I lock that in? Because you know the first application is going to be a fart app. I hope so. That would be such a great bonus prediction. Somebody in the audience, please make that happen. That would be be so great um okay here's what i'm thinking i could lock in is google will announce that you can start testing android devices in the fuchsia emulator yeah is that is that fair that seems like definitely going to happen and that is testable and measurable so yeah i think you could lock that in if you wanted to
Starting point is 00:39:03 but you're definitely going to win. Really? You think so? See, I feel like that's recency bias. See, again, I go back to the Bitcoin thing. Like, it seems like a definite now, but a lot can happen in a year. And this could never really come to fruition. Like, it just might not happen.
Starting point is 00:39:20 You seem skeptical. I mean, it seems like they're kind of bullish on it. But you're right, there is a recency bias. It's ready, it's here, I guess lock it in. All're kind of bullish on it. But you're right. There is a recency bias. It's ready. It's here. I guess lock it in. All right. Okay, here we go. To lock it in, in 2019, Google will announce that you can start testing your Android applications
Starting point is 00:39:35 on Fuchsia using their handy generic emulator. And I don't know what that means for Android and then eventually Google's long-term commitments and contributions to the Linux kernel. I don't know what that means. We and then eventually Google's long-term commitments and contributions to the Linux kernel. I don't know what that means. We'll see. I guess we just wait and see. All right, Mr. Payne. How are you feeling about your next one?
Starting point is 00:39:52 Are you ready? Yeah. All right, let's go. I'm going to say that in 2019, BcacheFS is mainlined. Ooh, that's a good one. That's easily measurable, too, don't you think, Raph? That's pretty clear.
Starting point is 00:40:05 Well, mainlined in a kernel that we can actually use, or is it going to be in an RC, or what? And will it ship in a distro? I'm going to say it's going to be in Linus' tree. Okay, Linus' tree, but will it be, like, in Ubuntu, or in, like, a Fedora? Is it going to be in a distro, or are you just saying... I don't know, but I think it'll be, yeah,
Starting point is 00:40:24 I think it'll be in Linus' tree. I don't know about the distro part. Will you just saying... I don't know. I think it'll be in Linus' tree. I don't know about the distro part. Will it at least be in Arch? Yeah. Yeah, it'll be in Arch. Okay, sure. It already is. That's pretty good.
Starting point is 00:40:33 I really can't argue with pretty much any of that. I think you could... I think you could sum it up and lock it in. Ref, it's your call. I think that's pretty good, though. Yeah, I think that... Yeah. Okay.
Starting point is 00:40:42 In 2019, BcashFS will enter the mainline kernel and be shipped in a distribution like Arch. I really hope that comes to fruition. I have no idea if it will, but hey, we'll see. I am a big fan of that file system. Watch it, and I am a patron of, is it Ken, right? Ken to Overstreet. Yeah, Ken.
Starting point is 00:41:02 Yes, Ken. I have a last one. All right, Mr. Drifter, take it away. Okay. In 2019, at the end, Microsoft will begin discussions with TPG in purchasing SUSE. Huh. Interesting. Again?
Starting point is 00:41:17 They're going to get acquired? You know, I was listening to Late Night Linux, the one that came out this week, and I was thinking to myself, is SUSE going to get bought again this year? And I rolled it around in my head, and I didn't really think of a buyer, because they're really focused on a market outside the U.S. And so Microsoft didn't land on that for me, Drifter. What makes you think Microsoft over, say, maybe making a significant investment in, say, Canonical? So the reason that I think that is because SUSE and windows have kind
Starting point is 00:41:46 of been a thing like back when it was novel they kind of had an agreement with different things okay i was talking with stitch in the chat room about active directory services and i happen to know a guy who happens to be working on an active directory integration with yast so it would make sense i think that uh that windows will buy it because, like he was mentioning, it makes sense in the long term for Microsoft to basically make Windows a skin for a Linux distribution. Yeah, I've seen that prediction float around on the internet a couple of times this year, that Microsoft will ship a desktop environment on Linux.
Starting point is 00:42:19 I think your prediction's pretty solid. I'll let the ref make the final call, but what do you think? Do you think we're ready to go with Microsoft buys SUSE, ref? Yep. All right. Lock it in, Drifter. I think that in 2019, SUSE and TPG in specific will begin discussion with Microsoft and the purchase of SUSE. All right.
Starting point is 00:42:39 So they won't necessarily finish the acquisition or won't be finalized. But like a purchase is announced. Yeah. Right. And the reason I say that is because, I mean, like it's been discussed, it's kind of already been purchased by TPG. They might have to wait a bit to see if it's worth it, you know? Yeah. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:42:54 They're probably still working the books out on that. All right. So we'll go to Brandon next and then Popey after Brandon. So Brandon, you have a prediction that involves Dell. Yeah. after Brandon. So Brandon, you have a prediction that involves Dell. Yeah. So in 2019, I predict that Dell Technologies or one of its subsidiaries like VMware will purchase SUSE. Okay. All right. You could have just hit the lock-in sound straight away on that. Almost, right? Like I was just trying to think like anything I can poke on that.
Starting point is 00:43:23 And I don't think so. And I think that makes more sense than Microsoft, too, if you think about it. I have a few reasonings for that. SUSE has some overlapping products with VMware that are actually, specifically with Pivotal, I think are superior. Like the way they handle cloud. SUSE handles cloud foundries a little bit better than the way Pivotal handles cloud foundry, and they created it. And also, operating systems become the most relevant thing, and VMware doesn't have an operating system. And there was a lot of rumors that years ago that VMware was going to acquire Novell.
Starting point is 00:44:03 And I think this, it just, it just makes sense that they'll buy it. That's pretty solid. That is a pretty solid. Plenty of enterprise play there. Yeah. And SUSE has been making a lot of noise about their Kubernetes offering. And any company that gets involved in that usually helps the stock price. So, Brandon, I think that's pretty great.
Starting point is 00:44:21 I think, yeah, I think I agree with Joe. Go ahead and lock that in. So, Brandon, I think that's pretty great. I think, yeah, I think I agree with Joe. Go ahead and lock that in. In 2019, SUSE will be acquired by Dell Technologies or one of the subsidiaries like VMware. That's pretty solid. That would be also one of the best news stories of the year
Starting point is 00:44:37 because it would be so much fun to talk about SUSE getting sold again. We could just have a party about it, like a SUSE sale party. You know, if that happens, we're having a barbecue. I say it right now. All right, Mr. Popey, I'd love to hear your next prediction for 2019. Okay. In 2019, I predict three AAA titles will withdraw plans for having a native Linux port of games, and they will instead support Proton.
Starting point is 00:45:02 Hmm. Just a new story out today about Proton getting even more support for more titles. So does this mean titles that have already announced that they're going to be on Linux or what? It'll be ones that are either in early access or beta or almost out, or planned to go out in 2019. So that was their launch window was 2019. And they're not going to do Linux. They were planning to do Linux in the future somewhere,
Starting point is 00:45:32 but whatever plans they had for Linux will be shelved and they'll use Proton instead. And how exactly are we defining AAA? Large, big-budget companies that you've heard of. So not a Kickstarter? No, no. These are like reputable companies. You know, as an example,
Starting point is 00:45:49 like EA and Bethesda and those kind of names that you've heard of rather than some guy in his bedroom. And I have to say, Proton is shockingly good. I've been playing the hell out of No Man's Sky again. Such a fun game for me. And it's, you know,
Starting point is 00:46:04 just don't even notice it. I wouldn't even know it's not a native port. That's pretty good for me, and it's, you know, just, don't even notice it. I wouldn't even know it's not a native port. That's pretty good. Yeah, I was trying to come up with a Proton Steam prediction, and this is better. Yeah, you got a number, you got a specific action that happens, and the logic for why that action happens, I think I
Starting point is 00:46:20 agree with. Alright, Mr. Popey, I think it's safe to lock that one in. Okay, in 2019 I predict three triple a titles from when well-known publishers will either push back their linux port or withdraw their linux port but instead use proton to support their linux users now i had a outlandish proton based prediction which is going to be in the next linux action news but i'm not going to spoil it. I look forward to that. Okay, Bitten, I'd love to hear your next prediction.
Starting point is 00:46:48 My prediction is Canonical will get IPO'd in 2019. Ah, there's our first solid Canonical prediction. It's nice and concise. Ref, what do you think? Yeah, I think you can lock that straight in. So my prediction for 2019 is that Canonical will get IPO'd. I'm surprised nobody else has made that prediction yet. I think we would have all shunned away from it. Yeah, you know what? It's not on my list either.
Starting point is 00:47:11 I just, but you almost kind of hope it happens because like, damn, they're working hard. If not, maybe some interesting investment news or something like that. Well, I'll jump in with my last prediction now. And that is that Linux sees big market gains in virtual desktops. It's the year of the Linux virtual desktop as major cloud providers go mainstream with their virtual desktop cloud offerings. So you mean like a cloud desktop, it's in a browser?
Starting point is 00:47:38 Browser, some sort of Citrix session, any kind of thin client, but it's you remote in, you get a full Linux desktop, and it becomes a mainstream workflow. And I know this has been brewing under the scenes for years now. I know a few listeners that use a virtual desktop. I've experimented with a couple of different options. But in 2019, every major cloud provider is going to roll out their virtual desktop, even Microsoft, roll out their virtual desktop, and it will be predominantly, maybe with the exception of Microsoft, Linux desktops. Now, although, again, I agree with you on this, it's not measurable.
Starting point is 00:48:16 We need some specific details to measure this by. Okay. You knew this was coming. These are your rules. You know what would be really fun is if DigitalOcean rolled out a... A virtual desktop. Wouldn't that be awesome? Yeah, you can do it with X2Go at the moment.
Starting point is 00:48:32 Yeah, we're all rolling our own anyway. Oh, you can roll your own for sure, yeah. So Citrix today already supports Linux virtual desktops, and so does VMware, and so does Red Hat, with Red Hat virtualization using Spice. So if you're saying a cloud provider, so maybe a better prediction would be a major cloud provider such as AWS
Starting point is 00:48:56 will be supporting Linux virtual desktops. Well, they already have something now, and I've used it. But what I'm talking about is it becomes a mainstream option. So you're a business that's rolling out desktops. Well, they already have something now, and I've used it. But what I'm talking about is it becomes a mainstream option. So you're a business that's rolling out desktops. The more I talk about it, the more I realize it's not that measurable. I feel like I need to go specific. I need to name a
Starting point is 00:49:15 specific provider. And I'm tempted to either say an Azure Linux desktop or a DigitalOcean Linux desktop. And I don't know which one I should go with. You can do both, I guess. You can hedge your bets as long as you say them both in your rocking. I mean, all right. I mean, I was really confident.
Starting point is 00:49:32 I'm confident about the virtual desktop market because I read some white papers. But they convinced me that the market for virtual desktops is going to be good in 2019. And then like in 2020 and 2022, it's going to be really good. So that was what I was trying to base the prediction on, is based on just reading those white papers. But what I will say is, just to make it spicy and to get the approval of the referee,
Starting point is 00:49:58 this is why we've got to have a referee, really, right? Yes, it is. I would have tried to squeak this one in, and nobody would have called me on it. But to be specific, I'm going to say DigitalOcean and Azure. Are you good with that? If I say DigitalOcean or Azure launches a virtual desktop that runs Linux? Yeah, you can say and or or. It's up to you.
Starting point is 00:50:15 I'd say or to hedge your bets. All right, all right, okay. All right, thank you. All right, okay, here we go. I will say this then. My prediction is in 2019, Microsoft Azure or DigitalOcean launches a Linux-based virtual desktop. That's the one I'm probably the least confident about now. And that was like that general trend is the one I'm the most confident about.
Starting point is 00:50:40 So that's kind of funny. That's difficult, right? All right, Mr. Payne. I think you have one more, don't you? I do. Okay. Payne. I think you have one more, don't you? I, uh, I do, okay. Alright. I predict that in 2019, a compiled ZFS module is shipped by another distro
Starting point is 00:50:54 outside of Ubuntu. Ooh! Especially with them rebasing a lot of the stuff on ZFS for Linux now, so it's like the, it's the mainstream version of ZFS. Seems like there's some steam. I don't know if it's gonna happen. It would, I would love it. Damn! I can't believe I didn't version of ZFS. Seems like there's some steam. I don't know if it's going to happen. I would love it. Damn. I can't believe I didn't think of that one. That's good.
Starting point is 00:51:10 So like, Debian would count, or SUSE. Well, SUSE isn't going to do it. That's ridiculous. Yeah, you can't just say a destroyer because that could be anything. That could be just some random respin of Ubuntu or whatever. We need some specifics. I think you need a short list of destroyers that count. Or what about
Starting point is 00:51:26 just saying Ubuntu and Ubuntu derivatives don't count? Would that be fair? Maybe. Or like a minimum user size or something? Again, I'm not trying to count a tiny bespoke distro, but something that exists now, that's an established distribution. But Clear Linux is a bespoke distribution
Starting point is 00:51:42 and if it shipped it, I think that would be considered a win. Okay, it's kind of bespoke, but I mean bespoke like some person on the internet who's not worried about lawsuits. You know what I mean? Like, if you just put some binaries on a DigitalOcean server somewhere, that's not what I'm saying. Okay. Intel, you know, Intel's behind Clear Linux. Right, okay, okay, all right. Are you saying a distro that has corporate backing then?
Starting point is 00:51:59 Not necessarily, but just like an established mainstream distribution. Yeah, so Arch would count, for example. Arch, Debian, whatever. Again, I don't think those two will do it, but those are examples of... Boy, it would be a hell of a thing if Debian did it. It would be, wouldn't it? It would really be a hell of a thing.
Starting point is 00:52:12 I'd love to see that. I think that we need a list of distro's words, I'm afraid. Okay. I think you're going to have to come up with four or five. Yeah, SUSE is not going to do it. They're all in on ButterFS with that thing. True. That's not going to happen.
Starting point is 00:52:24 Ubuntu's already doing it. Red Hat's not going to do it, are they? No, Red Hat's not going to do it. No, all in on ButterFS with that thing. True. That's not going to happen. Ubuntu's already doing it. Red Hat's not going to do it, are they? No, Red Hat's not going to do it. No. Damn, Wes. Okay. So, should we... I mean, how do you... I'm just thinking about this. I don't know what you've got left after that, really. Well, let's look at DistroWatch right now. So, we need to be clear.
Starting point is 00:52:40 Would Manjaro Linux count? Yeah, that would count for me. Okay. What about Solus? Yeah. Really? As I say on the Ubuntu podcast, hashtag awkward. Yeah, I don't know if that one, I mean...
Starting point is 00:52:52 What about Void? What about Anagross? Yeah. I feel like Anagross and Void do count. I feel like Anagross, Mangia, even though it's, you know, I think that would count. Hmm, boy.
Starting point is 00:53:04 What about something like Kali, which is more of a live environment? But what if they decided to use CFS for like a boot environment or something? Could you not specify a distro that's been around for more than N years? So that gives it a heritage and it's established rather than one of these fly-by-night distros. It's just a wallpaper change. Will you accept that, referee? Yeah, what do you think? Yeah, I'll accept that.
Starting point is 00:53:24 Okay. So like a three'll accept that. Okay. So like a three-year window. Sure. That's interesting. All right. What do you say? Yeah, so older than three years. So a distribution older than three years
Starting point is 00:53:34 ships a pre-compiled ZFS kernel. All right, lock it in, Wes. In 2019, a Linux distribution older than three years will ship a pre-compiled ZFS Linux kernel module. I like that. Now, older than three years in 2019 or older than three years now? Oh, damn it. Oh, don't complicate it.
Starting point is 00:53:56 Oh, dang it. As of the start of the year. I only realized that after you started saying it. No, no, the clarifications are good. That was a thought-provoking one, though. I like that. I like that. I like that as a thought exercise. Like, who else would be left to do it?
Starting point is 00:54:08 And it does seem like it's a long shot, but them rebasing on ZFS on Linux is the best indicator of, like, once that becomes, like, the mainline version that the project considers upstream, you're more likely to start deploying that. Someone small enough kind of bets that if someone's going to get sued,
Starting point is 00:54:24 it'll be canonical. Hmm. Well, now we're all on the record. We've locked it in. And my intention is to review this next year and see how we did. I felt going into it a lot better than I did on the other end of it. I have a sneaking suspicion that about this time next year, we're going to look like fools. Maybe.
Starting point is 00:54:43 Maybe. Definitely. But that will be fun, and we're going to look like fools. Maybe. Maybe. Definitely. But that will be fun, and we're going to get to review it, and maybe if we keep doing it, we'll get better. It's been a pretty awesome 2018. You know, I always debate every single year if I should set a New Year's resolution or not. And the one thing that really stops me every time is around this time,
Starting point is 00:55:03 I look back at the year and I go, holy shit. I would not have expected that we would all be working now for Linux Academy. I'd have a day job. You guys would be part of the team. Are you kidding me? That's amazing. We have a world-class editor slash referee known as Joe Resington now on our team. I had no idea that I'd be getting swole this year either. Right.
Starting point is 00:55:23 Yeah, Joe's even inspired me to go to the gym a couple of times a month. Yeah, I know. That is amazing. What a positive influence on the shows and on you. He's going to be ripped for LinuxFest Northwest. It's going to be a hell of a thing. You know what I mean? Joe and all of us
Starting point is 00:55:39 at LinuxFest Northwest, with me going to the gym a couple of more times before then and Joe going all the time, it's going to be great. We can enjoy it all over some hard cider. Also, we just have a few things in the works. I'll just say for 2019, we're going to be upgrading and improving the live stream with multi-bitrate options and getting our stupid audio stream working again.
Starting point is 00:56:02 That's right. Finally. It's very, very close. And we have one more holiday-ish episode. That'll be next week on the 2nd. We're doing our hopes and reviews. So we'll look back at 2018 and, like, when you look back at the year, what major stories really jump out at you? And try to look back at the whole year
Starting point is 00:56:20 and what really kind of is the things now with some perspective that really stand out. And I'd love to have you join us in the Mumble room or in the IRC room. We do it at 2 p.m. Pacific, but jupiterbroadcasting.com slash calendar
Starting point is 00:56:33 gets it converted to your time zone. You can join us in the IRC or you can join us in the Mumble and I'd love to have you in the Mumble because then you can get it
Starting point is 00:56:40 in the show. You can join our virtual lug and you can hopecast for what will happen next year in the open source world. This is the time to kind of get excited about all the great things that happened this year
Starting point is 00:56:49 and the things we hope can happen in the future. Absolutely. And talk about the major things that bent the universe in 2018. So I love those episodes. We get to do them once a year and that will be the day after New Year's.
Starting point is 00:57:02 We'll be doing it live and we'd love to have you at jupiterbroadcasting.com slash calendar to get it in, get it on the record. We won't be locking it in per se. It'll be more just reminiscing and chatting about it. But that wraps up this special holiday episode
Starting point is 00:57:15 of the Unplugged program. Thank you so much for joining us. Linuxunplugged.com slash 281 for show notes and links to the things we talked about. See you back here next week. Next Tuesday. Wait, is it Tuesday?
Starting point is 00:57:30 No, is it Wednesday? I don't know. We should know this. Oh, God. Thank you. Thank you.

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