LINUX Unplugged - 543: Profoundly Prophetic Prognostications

Episode Date: December 31, 2023

We make our big Linux predictions for 2024, but first, we score how we did for 2023. Special Guest: Michael Tunnell.

This is Linux Unplugged, Episode 543, for December 31st, 2023. Hello, friends, and welcome back to your weekly Linux talk show. My name is Chris. My name is Chris. My name is Wes. And my name is Brent. Hey gentlemen. Hey. Happy holidays.

Happy holidays. And happy New Year's. Indeed. You got any big plans, Brent? No, I can hardly plan a week in advance. Right, I suppose so. Since we're pre-recording, I have no idea. But I'm open.

Just say moose hunting. Just moose hunting. Actually, no, I think that's against the law. Moose riding? It still sounds cool and I wouldn't know. Okay. Moose riding. Yes. Holiday moose hunting. Actually, no, I think that's against the law. Moose riding? It still sounds cool and I wouldn't know. Okay. Moose riding. Yes.

Holiday moose riding. Well, coming up on the show today, we'll tell you what's going to happen in 2024 before it happens. But first, we'll look back at how we did in 2023. A special guest will be joining us to referee it all. And then we'll round it out with some picks and more. So before we go any further, I want to say good morning to Tailscale. Tailscale is a programmable networking software that is private and secure by default.

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tailscale.com slash Linux unplugged. Ladies and gentlemen, boys and girls, please welcome in special referee this week. It is Michael from Tux Digital. Michael, welcome back to the show. Thank you for having me back. I'm excited to be a referee. Thank you for coming in on the holidays. Yes. Now, when you call on somebody, we do have a special buzzer that will play where you can put a flag up and we have to address it. You'll keep us on the straight and narrow as we get into our predictions. Yes. We do have a couple of things to take care of.

On the straight and narrow as we get into our predictions. Yes. We do have a couple of things to take care of. I just wanted to update everybody on the initiative to get us to NixCon North America and scale, which all is happening very soon, March 14th through the 15th. We're doing really well. We're trying to raise 8 million sats to get the whole crew down there as much of us as we can. And we are at 58% of our goal as of right now. Wow. That is impressive. Yeah. We're getting can, and we are at 58% of our goal as of right now. Wow. That's surprisingly high.

Yeah. We're getting there, and we are getting there. We're not 100%, obviously, but I feel like the trend is our friend. We'd love your support. We'll have boosts coming up in the new year, so please do keep boosting in to help us get to scale. I think at this point, 58% we're going through most of Oregon, right? Yeah. Okay.

Hey, we're at least getting close. Can we make it over the mountains? Hmm. I feel like we could at least make it to Grants Pass. I like the idea we run out of gas and then we just hold an impromptu Linux meetup right there. You know, around Grants Pass, there's a really great rest stop. We could do a show at that rest stop. Hey, I'm in.

It's got a dog park. Perfect. Yeah, it's pretty nice. So, yeah, thank you everybody who does help us get there. We'll have Boost coming up in the new year. But, you know, with that, it's pretty nice. Yeah, thank you everybody who does help us get there. We'll have boosts coming up in the new year. But, you know, with that, it's time to get into our predictions.

Now, every year we sit down and we hold ourselves accountable to see how we did last year when we made our predictions. I hate this part. Yeah, this really does hurt sometimes. It's embarrassing. And it is time to check in to see what we thought would happen throughout the year. And Mr. Brentley, we're going to start with you.

You said, in particular, that I would be using a tiling manager. You made a prediction about me. Chris will find a tiling desktop manager that does per monitor or his favorite per virtual desktop tiling and have it installed at the time of next year's predictions episode. Okay. Now we already have to get into the woods and nuance on this one. So make your case. Okay. Well, I think you did try out a few per desktop tiling managers, did you not,

throughout the year? Sure, yeah. So, you know, theme was on point here. I'm not convinced, though, that you're still currently using this. And, you know, we have to go on your word. So what are you using these days? I think this is maybe the ref has to make a call right off the top here, because I do have Plasma 527 in front of me and to the left of me.

And occasionally, every now and then, used tiling capabilities on the second desktop. But I do not consistently use it. I wonder, is the spirit here that you have that like you found this because it meets those this desire you've had for so long that you would be using it upstairs on your main workstation like where it would really count if gnome had it i would be using it but like you didn't find something that you could replace or slot in that is doing it well technically you didn't require this to be a specific computer that is installed on and so as long as he has it installed then it's okay true that's kind of how i read it too yeah i mean if you have multiple we all have multiple computers so it's just gonna have that's gonna happen so as long as you have it installed i also don't think that the prediction even said that you would use it just that you would have it and you would find

it and then install it and have it installed when you're doing this prediction episode. And I would have to say that that does sound the case because KDE Plasma 5.27 has it. And even if you use it or not, it's still there. So I think we got to give a point to Brent. Well done, Brent Lee. You know, this is the case where I was going to argue against my winning this one because I don't think it's in the spirit of... No, I think it is a win. I agree with the ref, too. I read it as, it's installed, I can use it.

You take your win. To Brent's point, I think we need to do a better job, maybe, of refining what we lock in this year, so that we're a little more specific. There was enough vagueness in that prediction that you could get away with it. But if you were to say he had to also use it at the time, then that would, yeah. Yeah.

Who reffed last year? Can we blame Drew on that one? Okay, you got another one here, Brent. Are you ready for another hot Brent prediction? I am. I predict that in 2023, code related to a new System76 laptop will be released on their public GitHub. 76 laptop will be released on their public GitHub.

Now, we do have a System76 Virgo laptop PCB design that has been open sourced and put on GitHub. But not code. Yeah, and it's not a full design. What do you think, Raph? Well, I mean, he said specifically code. So if it's not code, it's just a design for some part of it because they also showed some photos and stuff about that too i'm gonna have to say that this is not gonna get a point if it if it's specifically requesting code and this one does not have code then it is what it is you know it's so funny i uh won that first one on the tiling managers because I was vague.

And this one specifically. You lost because you were vague. Well, no. What I mean is. You shouldn't have said code. Well, code was not that specific, really. Well, but it's not even what I meant. What I meant was like CAD designs or something around the design of their new laptop hopes.

If you just said some source materials. I know. Oh, that's the challenge here is wording matters. Very much it seems so. That's why in the next segment when we make our new predictions, we always kind of get, you know. But you got one out of two. Pretty good. That's more than I usually ever get.

Exactly. We're going to give a shot at three predictions this year if we can we'll see how that goes all right wes are you ready for uh let's do it okay wes your first prediction for 2023 when we were sitting together at this same time in 2022 was i predict that bcash fs will be merged into mainline Linux sometime during 2023. Oh, there's really no debate here. You know, you're so damn close. Yes. 6.7 is supposed to debut probably right now as this episode comes out.

It may actually hit on New Year's Eve, but we just don't know. And I think I'm helped right by having said merged and not like prediction doesn't require that the kernel that was merged into is released unless we think it should. But I think I said merged. Raph, what do you think? Well,

if you said merged, yeah, I think that is long because he's, his prediction is that it would be merged into the kernel. It doesn't have to be released as long as it's there. Nice. I mean, wow.

Well done. Sneaking in there. using pedantic language properly i like it well done all right wes you get a win under your belt let's see what you said would also happen in 2023 next i predict that a vulnerability related to ebpf or iOU ring will be announced sometime in 2023, and it will have a CVSS score of seven or higher. I really thought it was a mistake to specify the score. Yeah. I really thought you had overplayed your hand there. Why did you get it really hard for myself?

Why did you pick seven? I just wanted something that was like felt severe, you know, not like a vulnerability that was really specific so that you could, you know, you would brush off something that if you were using EPPF and this was announced, it would matter to you or you'd be concerned. Well, you got multiple. You got, there was a 7.8 CVE and there was also an 8.2. There was a difference. Yeah, CVE-2023-39191 came out in October.

Base score of 8.2, which is high. An improper input validation flaw was found. This may allow an attacker with the BPF capability to escalate privileges and execute arbitrary code in the context of the kernel. That's never good. No. That's a clear win. That's a clear win. Is that the latest information about it?

Did you check the CVE today to see if it has been downgraded from 8 to like a 6? That's a good question. I did just freshly copy this in this morning. That can't happen. the CVE today to see if it has been downgraded from an 8 to like a 6? That's a good question. I did just freshly copy this in this morning. That can't happen. Totally. Good question. Alright. You did it, Wes. Damn, that's two for two, Wes Payne. Well done.

I did have one extra one. Oh, you did have a bonus. Let's play it. Let's see. I predict that over the course of 2023, the Linux Foundation will announce at least 20 new foundations. 20? Yeah, I think I lost this one. I did a little bit of research. You're close.

Yeah, they had a few. The Open Wallet Foundation, the Open Metaverse Foundation, the High Performance Software Foundation. That sounds a little more regular. The TLA Plus Foundation, which is for like formal methods and stuff. That one's neat as well. There's probably a couple more I missed, but probably not 15 plus. Open Tofu stuff.

Yeah, there's probably some vagueness around like, I think I said foundation. There's like a lot of new projects. Oh, I see. Okay, gotcha. Fewer foundations. Yeah, yeah. Okay, so not quite a win then, I guess.

All right. You're off by just a few. Although I love that you went for a third. And, you know, your score is still the two. You still won the two of my primary ones. That's really what matters. Close, though. We could have seen it happening.

We could have. All right. My next one's pretty painful. Here we go. I predict in 2023, Valve will make their Archbase SteamOS monster available for general download. It's because you really wanted this one. That is clearly, clearly not happened. At least it's easy to check, right?

We'd all be aware of it. Yeah. Shout out to HoloISL or whatever it is. Are we seeing any new information or trending or mentioning of any sort in this regard? No. No, nothing? No. Valve has been very just kind of close to the chest with it.

I actually don't think that they're going to be releasing it outside of maybe like opening the source code, but not actually publishing it. Hmm. Hmm. Yeah, I could maybe see it if they wanted to get a lot of public testing before the next Steam Deck. One way to do that could be to publicly release it, but I don't think they need to. I think they've decided they don't need to and they've got other things to focus on. So I'll take the L on that one. It's pretty obvious.

This next one, though, I think looking back was kind of obvious. I did check around and thought, OK, this is going to be a huge, huge deal. It wasn't as big as I thought it would be, but I feel like this was my most obvious prediction. I predicted 2023, an open AI search engine will be available to the general public. I mean, what does that mean exactly? Chat GPT? I feel like the Bing integration,

because they sort of specifically launched it as a search assistant probably counts. This was before chat GPpt and the bing integration right so i guess maybe what do you think ref so i think that it's it's it's on the line but i think that that it is because it was before the integration i think it's i think i'll give it a go i'll give it a a good all right all right i'll it. I'll take one win. I also had a bonus prediction in there that we'd have chat based

CLI and Butterfish came out this year which is a shell with what they call AI superpowers but it's essentially like you can you know browse through your

shell history with conversational interface. That's cool and all but with that name I wish it was sort of like a ButterFS specific shell. Yeah.

That would be pretty great. But what would it do? Just give you the actual accurate file space use? Exactly. It's true. It's true. Because you know what? The reality is it's still a problem.

But I'll take the win. All right. So that is our review of our 2023 predictions. That is how we did. I mean, at least all of us got at least one win. Wes, you did great. That feels like an outlier. Definitely for me, maybe for the group. I don't know.

Yeah. All right. Well, there you have it. Somehow I don't think we're going to carry this momentum into 2024, but I'm hoping. Linode.com slash unplug. Go over there and get $100 in 60-day credit and see why we've been using Linode

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This year is hard because it feels like everything's up in the air. I mean, economically, we've got all sorts of, I don't know, massive unknowns. The tech field has been lazy this year. Constricted, yeah, constricted is a much better word. Right. AI is basically the only thing making money. Well, and will that continue? Because, you know, VC and stuff, all that funding is starting to constrict. So I found it hard to come up with predictions this year, which is interesting. But I did find some.

Now we mentioned AI. So I think, and I need your help refining the wording on this one, but I think we will see an AI-based desktop distribution come out. What I mean by that is a Linux distribution whose sole purpose is to enable users to use AI features of some sort. So not a distro based on AI, it's a distro that is focused on providing AI tools. Like an AI enablement. Okay.

So maybe it has large language models. Like backtrack is for security or... Your launcher talks to an AI fan? Sure, yeah. Or it has large language models like built-in or something like that. What if it just has maybe stable diffusion or something like that that's pre-installed? I think that works. Ollama pre-installed, that kind of thing.

Like a spin of what Microsoft's doing with their Windows AI stuff they just announced, but like a Linux native version. Okay. Could be a community project. Or like an Ubuntu Studio is for studio stuff. Okay. Could be a spin. So how do an Ubuntu studio is for studio stuff. Okay. Could be a spin. So how do we –

Ubuntu AI Studio, right. We need to kind of get that into something that's kind of – Soundbiteable? Well, one challenge I thought of here, and I did do a little research, is, well, does this already exist? And I did find a project called Macalulu. Macalulu. Macalulu. That's probably –

You do know that if it does exist, you don't get points for it. Well, that's where I think we need to refine the wording a little bit. So I'm thinking we just constrict it slightly because none of us have heard of this Macalulu Linux. I think I'll probably give it a try. I've heard of it.

I've used it. Maculu. Oh, great. Macalulu Linux. Yeah, there you go. That's how you say it. Macalulu, right? It's been around for a long time.

So I wouldn't think this was related to your prediction because you're saying that it's something made for the purpose of having AI stuff. And this is something that maybe added it in later. Right, right, right. Because this has been around for at least 10 years. Okay. Okay, so that's an interesting way. So it comes out, it has to come out in 2024. So be announced this year.

Or at least a distribution that is announcing that they're adding a suite of AI stuff. The functionality. Yeah. Okay. Do you think you could put that into a statement that the ref is? Well, let me try before. Is there like a limit on what you know like is this too niche to count like are we i think maybe you had some notes about

something in the big five like is it ubuntu or fedora or someone announces that they're doing these tools or is it i think it's i think it's not that likely to happen overall that's okay he can sell himself down the river strategy over here here. Good job. I like it. Wes, I thought we were friends. Okay, well, here's a try at it, and you guys can tell me and we can workshop this a little bit. All right. So in 2024,

I believe a Linux distribution will be announced that specifically offers AI features as one of its main feature sets. I think AI features is too vague. That is vague. What do you think, Ref? Is that too vague? AI features as one of its main feature sets. I think AI features is too vague. That is vague. What do you think, Ref? Is that too vague?

AI features? It is too vague, but I would say that it doesn't need to be that specific. You don't need to specify a particular language model or just something that is more specific to a functionality, like maybe a voice assistant AI or chat-based AI, just something that's built in. Or simple access to AI tools, even, AI, just something that's built in. Or simple access to AI tools even, I think. That's fine, yeah. Like an interface for the user to use?

I'd say pre-installed AI tools. Yeah, there you go. If you're going to get this thing, that seems like your best shot. It's more interesting if it's AI integrated into the desktop environment, I think, but it's probably less likely. Still trying to get those points. Uh-huh. I think predictions should be made with the entertainment value. Yeah, I like that.

That's some gusto. Go for the fences there, Brent. Isn't that what they say? Is that what they say? Swing for the... I think it's a baseball reference. Yeah. I believe in 2024, we will see a Linux distribution whose main purpose is to enable AI integrated into the desktop environment.

All right, it's locked in. All right, you got another one for us for 2024? Yeah, I do. This one's maybe a bit controversial, and I think Wes feels the same way as I do about this one. It's around the Rocky Linux stuff. You know, we've got some questions about where some of their source material is coming from. I think that might get them into some trouble. So I think it will either cause them some legal issues, maybe financial issues, and maybe they will then be sold or something. Whoa, that's two different predictions.

Legal issues and sold are two different things. So we got to refine this a little bit and I need your help because. I think you need to refine it a lot because both the first, the first part of your prediction is already happened. Legal issues? Legal issues. Yeah. Oh, yeah.

But I guess these would have to be new legal issues. I suppose in 2024. I can make it. Well, Wes, you. What about making it more specific? What about making it. What? What about making it... Like what kind of legal issues? Legal issues with Red Hat.

Let's put it there. Sure. Bring it on. What do you think of that, Raph, if we make it specific? If you make it that specific, yes, absolutely. All right. You want to try locking that in? All right.

You also don't need to talk about the buying out at that point, because I think that's plenty specific. Yeah, yeah, yeah. That's two different predictions. In 2024, Rocky Linux will find itself in legal troubles with Red Hat. I like that one. I don't want it to happen, but I think that's a spicy one. All right.

One last one. We're doing three this time. I struggle a little bit with this third one, but I also secretly hope it's going to happen. I'm not too sure why. I have the excitement around this project. So I believe in 2024, the Ubuntu core desktop will appear as a standard download on either Ubuntu.com slash download or Ubuntu.com slash desktop slash flavors. Do we know what their current plan timeline is? I couldn't find it actually. I did a

little research and I couldn't quite find it. All right. Do you have any qualms there, Ref, with that? No, I've talked with some people about it, so I have a rough idea, but it's not been confirmed and it's an interesting prediction. Okay. Especially with the flavor part, because I think that is probably the more likely to happen than anything else. All right. Lock it in, Brent. I think it sounds like it's a winner then. Possibly.

In 2024, the Ubuntu Core desktop will be found as either a download on Ubuntu.com slash download or an Ubuntu flavor. I should have thought of it. Now I regret not having a core prediction. Same. Mm-hmm. All right, Wes. Okay, these ones, I hope you're wrong on all of these. I don't know how to feel.

Okay, so. Yeah, okay, up first, I'm going to predict that my beloved BcacheFS has a data corruption bug in 2024. I can't even believe you're putting that out there in the universe. I hope it doesn't happen. I'm planning to install it on more systems after, you know, 6.7. The irony of this prediction is if it comes true, it's probably going to bite you. Right. Yeah.

But also, like, we've seen bugs in almost all the file systems. It's a pretty safe bet. So I think this is super likely. It's a nascent file system. I don't know. You have any qualms with the wording there, Raph? I don't really have any qualms with it, but I think he's keeping the momentum going with this one.

Yeah. All right, Wes. Go ahead and lock it in. I predict that in 2024, BcashFS will announce a data corruption bug. Well, we'll see. We'll just, you know, the worst part is, is not only does it mean we're going to lose data, but it also, at the same time, we're going to know,

oh, Wes was right. You said announce a data corruption bug. How do we measure that? I think, well, I think it just means if there's one out there. Any time, if someone finds a data corruption bug, whether it's announced by Bcash or not, it's just being promoted as like, this is a thing that has to be fixed sort of thing.

My intention would be to find something at Pharonix or a mailing list. It has to be confirmed somewhere. Not just like a... You can't go to the GitHub and then say I found a data corruption bug to make yourself right, for example. Yeah. I mean, a commit

from Kent or someone on the project might work. That would be fine. Right. But is that an announcement? Oh, that's fair. You're right. I said,

I said announcement. You said announcement. Yeah. Well, great. I'm going to win it. That works. Yeah,

we'll see. All right. You got one more for us? I got two more. Oh yeah. Right. Oh God. Oh God,

Wes. Yeah. Let's, I'm going to swap the order here. I predict that in 2024, Debian will announce its dropping support for the 32-bit x86 architecture. Is it because they will have listened to our episode about our 32-bit challenge? Isn't this kind of already in the works, though? This is pretty much already in the works, yeah.

They haven't done it. They haven't done it specifically yet, but they have talked about that it might happen. Right. But it also is Debian, so it might happen in 2042. That's true. That's kind of the play here. That's a good point. Is it fast enough, or is there going to be a significant pushback?

They could make the decision next year, but it might not actually happen until like 2026 or something. Okay. Because it's also possible that they'll wait until Debian 13 to actually do it. All right. Okay, then. All right. Lock it in, Wes. I predict that in 2024, the Debian project will announce it is dropping official support

for the 32-bit x86 architecture. And your last one. Yeah, this is a dark one. I think that Ingenuity's luck runs out in 2024. So I think, you know, JPL loses contact or acknowledges that it's broken in some way, broken enough that the missions stop. No more Linux copter?

No more Linux copter. It got close once this year. Yeah. I mean, it's had, yeah. And the batteries are not doing as good as they used to. And it's had an this year. Yeah. I mean, it's had, yeah. And the batteries are not doing as good as they used to. And it's had an incredible run. Yeah. It was only supposed to do a handful of flights.

Right. They haven't exactly had luck with Voyager either this year. Mm-hmm. That's going to be a rough one if that comes true. I'm going to be mad at you if that comes true, you know, because you put that out there now. Yeah. Any qualms, specific things I should say? I have a ref.

I'm okay with your prediction in terms of, like, the way it's worded, but you put that out there now. Any qualms, specific things I should say? I have a ref. I'm okay with your prediction in terms of the way it's worded, but also you're a bummer. I am a bummer. Alright, lock this bummer in. I predict that in 2024, Ingenuity, our dear Linux copter,

will suffer some kind of fault or will lose contact in such a way that the Ingenuity missions come to a halt. It hurts. Yeah. I'm going to pick it up with mine. I think mine are a little more positive. Yeah, you got some hope for 2024.

This first one feels a little obvious, but it's not necessarily a lock because I went and looked at some of their most recent project reports and some of it was a little more elementary sorry but a little bit more like getting the basics working than i expected but i think in 2024 some version of the cosmic desktop will ship that we can use either an alpha or beta i'm not sure if it'll be one out of you know what it'll, but it'll be something that we can download, maybe an ISO of Pop! OS that has Cosmic as the default desktop. Not exactly sure if it's going to be tied to Pop! OS

or if it's just something you can be able to download on. Probably can be Pop! OS. But sort of like a cohesive Cosmic desktop. Yeah. But it might not be the final version. So where do you think

this can be downloaded? Like, are you talking about... System76, yeah, they're going to... Is it on their page or is this like a GitHub link on the repo uh probably initially but then i would imagine they'll probably you know hey come try out cosmic just not sure i i think no matter where it downloads from it doesn't really matter that much because that's a that's a strong statement to say that this is going to come out and i i think that is i think that it's possible that you're right

with the specification of it it could be an alpha. So I think that this is definitely a possibility. And I think you're being specific enough, so I'd say lock it in. My main question was, is this Jeremy is a link to the GitHub on Twitter,

or is the system is 76 on a blog post saying as a company. So is the company announcing it, or someone in part of the project announcing it? Or is it like the project? I'm not thinking so much. I don't care. I mean, either way. I don't, I'm not predicting so much about how it gets announced, just that a downloadable

usable version gets released. Hmm. Okay. That's more of my prediction. Okay. So you do have to specify when you say usable that it has to be like, you know, because An alpha or a beta. Yeah.

Because otherwise people would say the usable is like production ready yeah yeah or you could go get so you could go build it off github eventually and that doesn't count it says yeah they're currently in pre-alpha and you can do some testing yourself so that's you know when you say downloadable i don't think that counts okay that wouldn't count i would say that in order for this to be functional your prediction has to say that anyone can go download it, not someone who's a technical user. Right, it's like maybe an ISO or it's like

a PPA. Yeah, you'd be able to download it and run it as a VM or something like that, where it's someone who's just not necessarily a beginner but like an intermediate user or like a novice. Okay, so how about this for wording? Like in 2024, the Cosmic Desktop gets released in some form for just about anyone

for just about any desktop linux user to try i like it okay all right here we go ladies and gentlemen in 2024 the cosmic desktop will ship in some form alpha beta 1.0 for general desktop users to try i'm hoping it's like that would be fun like here's pop os latest version of pop os like the new version pop os comes out and it's standard gnome with cosmic on top and then like a couple of months later that same version comes out but it's got a cosmic spin or something yeah and then they run both for a little bit and then transition over i think that's possible i i think the the fact that possible possible yep if they don't release it with this in this year this next year then they're probably going to wait for 2026 yeah unless they change to that six month release cycle again but i doubt

they're gonna be i think they're happy with the you know the lts style now i think you'll wait too long if people will just settle into their workflows. Oh, yeah. If they wait until 2026, I would have forgotten about it by then. Yeah. Yeah. I think that's a concern. Is it still working on that?

Okay. So this one is a little vague, but tell me what you guys think. And I don't think this exists today. A NixOS-based distro is born in the style of like Endeavor OS to Arch. base distro is born in the style of like Endeavor OS to Arch. So you get sort of opinionated, but not super opinionated, Nix OS

desktop that's kind of pre-packaged and ready to go. I don't really know why you would need this instead of just downloading the Nix ISO, but I think, you know, just like you see people that base distros on Arch, I think you're going to see people start doing that with Nix. So this is basically like, because right now with the graphical installer, you get an installer that sets things up and then you

get like a very default config so would this functionally be something that's just like a more opinionated default nix config or are there other pieces i don't know exactly what that looks like but i think maybe it looks like some theming maybe a little bit spicier config so you're using maybe the most newest latest kernel instead of i don't know what it looks like but i think they're like non-Nix packages stuff? Like does it have extra packages from its own stuff elsewhere? I just found Snowflake OS. What? Really?

It's a Nix OS-based Linux distribution focused on beginner friendliness and ease of use. Okay. Is it actively developed? Well, I could also refine – this looks good though. I could also refine mine to say it gets released. It's something that comes out next year. So it can't be discounting. Not existing. Yeah. This is an alpha. Looks good, though. I could also refine mine to say it gets released. It's something that comes out next year. So it can't be discounting. Not existing.

Yeah. This is an alpha. I'm going to have to give this a try, though. I don't really know what the advantage would be here because there isn't a plethora of graphical Nix configuration tools, but there are some. I've never tried them, but I've seen they're out there. And you could prepackage those. Also, I will say, from what I can tell, this project is somewhat dormant, especially in NixOS land. The last, I think the last commit here was in March.

How about a slight tweak? Okay. Well, this might be too difficult. I was going to say maybe if you can get DistroWatch recognizes something based on NixOS because there's not one on their website right now. That's a long shot, but a fun one. It'd also be very difficult

to do considering the rules about getting onto the DistroWatch. That would make it almost impossible. I wouldn't say it's impossible, but it's almost impossible. How strongly do you want to go with this? I'm going to do it. I'm going to lean into it. Wow. Atta boy.

Why not? I'm going to do it. Okay, so. This also means that the Snowflake OS could count still as long as it gets recognized. Exactly. In 2024, a NixOS-based desktop will be recognized by DistroWatch. I hope that happens because they deserve it. I'm going to keep an eye, though, on Snowflake.

If they're listening, keep going, guys. Keep going. And also submit to DistroWatch. Yeah. Very much. Good point. And come on the show. Yeah, totally.

All right. Here's my last one. Then we're going to get to the rest prediction. I think in 2024, we're going to see the open source NVIDIA driver replacement, MVK, start to get packaged and made easily available in some modern distributions. I'm thinking your Fedoras, your Arches, your Tumbleweeds, Nix, Gen 2, obviously. In fact, I could see Fedora 41, maybe MVK by default even. I mean, I'm not going to make that my prediction, but that's where I'm going with this.

Like that kind of easy. Do we need a big five or similar sort of restriction to say it's packaged in the repos or easy to install in Fedora or Ubuntu or Debian? I could limit it to the big five. Yeah, I could do that. I could say the prediction is something like, in 2024, one of the big five

distros will make it approachable to use the MVK driver. Does that sound... Are we clear on who the five are well you got your buntus your debians your fedoras your seusses and then you know you can throw nicks in there arch in there you know any other all right cutting edge ones i'm really thinking it's going to be one of the more leading edge distros just because it's at minimum it's going to require uh linux six seven we also have to define which one is what like the question brent had about what the big

five is is a good question because first of all you had more than five in your list and and the fourth one was kind of wishy-washy well i feel like it's all of the leading edge one the first two are basically the same thing debian based so oh that's fair yeah although i think ubuntu could do it before oh yeah almost Almost everything is done in Ubuntu before Dev. I feel like what we should do is it should be like NIC slash Arch slash Gentoo. Like all of those that are essentially... Yeah, I would say it's fair to put the hardcore type distributions in their own little group. Yeah. And then have SUSE as one, Fedora as another one, Ubuntu as another one.

Yeah. You could say, Debbie, I think Ubuntu is more likely to do it. And that's four. I don't know if there is a five. I'm pulling for Fedora. I'm pulling for Fedora. I think Fedora is the most likely because they're the most,

like, they're most willing to do innovative stuff. You're just going to take Neil out for dinner. Yeah. That's a good idea. And then they also, you know,

they ship modern kernels. Also, your prediction has to say that Neil did not do it. Yeah. No way. No. The chances of Neil, he gets involved in everything. The chances are high he's involved.

So maybe instead of saying the big five, would you just say the mainstream distros and rolling distros? Is that okay? Or is that too vague? Mainstream distros and rolling. Rolling's fine. Well, there's a lot of esoteric rolling ones yeah yeah i mean i feel like arch i mean it's not mainstream but everyone talks about arch in a

mainstream sort of way i'm okay with thinking about that you could say you could also kind of cheat in a way and say not really cheat but say like the top 10 distro watch people during distros which are usually those i really think it's gonna i i mean i could really i could narrow it down i really think it's gonna be fedora or ubuntu or arch or any of the rollings do it i think it could just be arch fedora well any rolling and fedora and ubuntu how about i just lean into that how about uh a independent rolling not something based on another rolling like for example yeah okay there are some stuff that's based on Arch that do their own little thing on top of it. They could maybe do something like that, but that wouldn't count as the main distro.

Okay. In 2024, we'll see the open-source NVIDIA driver replacement, NVK, shipped by one of the big distros, such as Fedora, Ubuntu, or one of the primary rolling distributions. Not a sub-distro, but one of the primary distros, and they'll make it easy and approachable for everyday NVIDIA users

that have compatible hardware to use NVK. All right. Yeah. I hope that's true. I hope we start to see that. I think this has been, you know, there's been a lot of work, so we'll see. All right.

Ref, it's time for your prediction in 2024. All right. So I have one prediction that is genuine that I came up with before, and I have another prediction that I have based on your prediction from last year, Chris. Oh, no. So I have a prediction. We'll start with that one. So in 2024, Valve will not release SteamOS as a public distribution.

Anti-prediction. I think that's pretty straightforward. There's nothing really to nuance there. And it doesn't count if they partner with another hardware provider and they get the OS because it's still not released. So yeah, okay, lock it in. I don't have any issues. My prediction for 2024 is that Valve will

not release SteamOS as a public release distro hurts so i have another one that actually is legitimate and this is a this is a strong one that it's also the so this my one actually was valve steam related first and it just happens to now that i have two of those but the linux market share on steam will reach five percent at some point in 2024 oh you know five percent two years ago i made a prediction similar to this and i lost miserably so i feel like four percent is actually doable because of the the rate of speed that steam os through uh steam deck is getting into the market that it is it is doable now that it could get to four but i don't think that it's going to get to five but i think that if it did that would be a bigger milestone no kidding

be huge that'd be huge so that's that's why i'm making the prediction a little bit stronger okay it seems like what would help that is if they have a really good holiday season with the deck. That could help that. How are we measuring this? Do we have a specific measurement website we're going to use? The Steam's hardware survey? Yeah, Steam's hardware survey.

Alright, lock it in. I think we're in agreement. That'll work. The Linux market share for Steam on the Steam platform will be going to 5% market share in 2024. All right. I hope that happens. Me too. I mean, I feel like that would be a milestone that developers would have to recognize.

And maybe, maybe, maybe anti-cheat developers would have to start considering. Exactly. That's a real number. You know, that's like, that could be like, I don't know what the switch numbers are, but that's got to be, you start looking at that user base, it's worth their time.

I mean, the 4%, I think it's probably worth it, but the 5% would basically like make them stop and actually pivot. You can't ignore us. Collide.com slash unplugged. If you're in IT, if you manage security, you have to hear this. We all know that user devices, albeit great that they're more powerful and more functional,

are also a bigger and bigger vector for assaults on your network and for compromises. Sometimes it's just phishing credentials. It's not device-specific. Sometimes it is. It's things are out of date. Maybe they don't have the right software to be compliant with your requirements. These types of things, like they just plague IT and they have now for a decade or more and it could be better. Why not catch that stuff before the devices get on the network? Why not just do a double check of everything? Make sure it's all copacetic and in-compliant with your policies before they're allowed to log into your cloud apps. And why not have all that behind one

dashboard for Mac, Linux, and Windows? Well, friends, let me introduce you to Collide. It is the solution to this challenge. For those of you that work in IT, if you deal with Okta and, man, is it integrate suite if you do, Collide ensures that only secure devices can access your cloud apps. So you don't have to worry about phish credentials or them not having all their softwares up to dates if they're on a Mac or if they're on Windows. And then the other brilliant thing that it does is Collide empowers employees directly through your messaging platform of choice to help them sort this out following your policies, procedures, and guides. So that way they can just take care of it, you know, get the antivirus installed before they try to connect to the cloud app. That way they don't have to ping support for help.

So that saves on IT. And that just makes everybody happy. So you've got to go experience the solution firsthand. If you're in IT, maybe you could recommend this to your company. Have them go to collide.com slash unplug. They've got a demo up there so you can see how seamless all this is. This is what really IT has needed forever. If they had this 10 years ago, more plus whatever it's been now, I'd probably still be in IT. Looks like it's just like, I don't know, like a nice

glass of ice water in a desert to me. That's how I look at this. You know, if you've been there, you know what I'm talking about. Go try it out. Maybe recommend it up the ladder in your company. Go to KOLIDE, that's K-O-L-I-D-E dot com slash unplugged. Get the demo, support the show. KOLIDE dot com slash unplugged. Now, we have a pick this week. Chris, you found a pick that got me all tingling and excited about it. It's called Box Buddy.

Yeah, I think we've all been using DistroBox a little bit more these days. I found a pick that got me all tingling and excited about it. It's called BoxBuddy. Yeah, I think we've all been using DistroBox a little bit more these days. You know, if you're not familiar with it, it's just a really quick way to, in your terminal window, have a full environment for another distribution. And so this is great on, say, an XOS. You can have Ubuntu and Arch on there and just your window. And maybe you're screwing around with AI tools that are kind of pre-packaged for a Debian-based system and you're on Fedora, you could run DistroBox and essentially have a fake Ubuntu environment. But wouldn't it be great if there's a way you could visually manage all of that? Well, friends, that's where BoxBuddy comes in. A little GTK app, nice modern looking GTK app

that is a straightforward graphical user interface for DistroBox. Yeah, pretty minimal, but looks nice. Gives you the basic commands that you might need. You know, open up a terminal, create, delete. It's got a nice little drop-down of some of the available options that you have for DistroBox. You should be aware, though, it looks like BoxBuddy does not actually package DistroBox itself. So it's not sort of like all contained in one like that.

You do need to separately install DistroBox. But it looks like that's packaged in Nix. That would be nice. That would be nice. It is super quick to install DistroBox in just about any distro. But it would be kind of slick if you could have it all in the flat pack.

That'd be kind of nice. Especially if you dream for it. The older distros out there. But it's very handy. I've already been using it and I love it. Maybe they have it separate for performance issues. Yeah. So I think there would be much more performance if you have Distrobox separate. Right. Maybe that, you know, what it's trying to do needs to be on the local host more too. It's a very good idea, by the way, that having this as a pick. I mean, I'm going to try

this immediately. The Distrobox stuff is cool, but it always a little bit of a pain. But just real quick example of people who are not familiar with what you can do in it. Imagine having something you found that works great on a particular distribution, but not your distribution, and you still want to use the application. For example, if you are like me and like to use the video editor DaVinci Resolve, it doesn't work on most things. But if you put it inside of a distro box, you can then have it in a specific distro it does work in and still use whatever you want. Yes. Yeah. It's like a little hack for distro compatibility.

You're not stuck to one distro anymore. One thing I'm impressed by in this flat pack is the install size. So it looks like install size 682 kilobytes. I suppose that's the other advantage, having the distro box bit separate. You will take up more eventually, though, because it's going to start downloading images. Right, of course. Yeah, you'll fill it up. You'll fill it up.

Michael, thank you so much for joining us and playing Ref. It was a lot of fun. Appreciate it. Yeah, it was a lot of fun. I appreciate you having me here because this was a thing that I haven't done in a while. We didn't do the predictions in the past couple of years for my shows. And we even realized that a couple episodes ago. And we're like, when did we not – why did we not do predictions?

Just completely forgot. It can be very embarrassing as well. Oh, yeah. I mean, my predictions are usually terrible. Well, tell people where they can find what you do. So I do podcasting as well. I do Destination Linux and This Week in Linux. Destination Linux is a conversational podcast. And This Week in Linux is a news show where we talk about all the things that are happening in Linux and open source every week. It's where you can get your source for Linux good news. So you can check those out. We also have a YouTube channel, that sort of stuff.

So if you want to see my face a lot, you can check out my content. We'll put links in the notes for that. Happy holidays to you and the crew over there too at Tux Digital and DLN. Say hello to everybody for us. I will tell them Merry Easter for sure. Thank you. Thank you. Also, thank you to our members who support us directly at unpluggedcore.com.

Thank you to you through these holidays and thank you to everybody who boosted in and supports the show with a boost directly. We'll have those in

our first episode of 2024. Oh, yeah. We'll see you back live for the 32-bit challenge review. Yep. We're back on

January 7th. It's Sunday at noon Pacific, 3 p.m. Eastern over at jblive.tv. And I've got my big old 32-bit rig out there. Brent got to see it for the first time. I did.

I was carrying my framework laptop in my arm when I first spotted the thing. Well, you clunked it down, so I couldn't help but notice it. And I thought, oh, maybe I'll just stack these together and see how they compare. And literally, Chris, that thing is three times the thickness of my framework. It is a chonker. Doubles as a self-defense item. That's true. That's true.

You throw that at somebody and you're definitely taking them down. Yep, so we'll be back. We'll be live. You can get that at jupiterbroadcasting.com slash calendar. Don't forget our Mumble Room will be going as well. We'd love to have you report back on how your 32-bit challenge went either through a boost or Mumble Room or that 32-bit challenge chat room. We want to feel the pain.

Experience it with you. It's how it is. Thanks so much for joining us on this week's episode, and we'll see you right back here next Sunday. By the way, I did the 32-bit challenge myself, but not in the same thing. I did it like six months ago because I found a super old laptop in my closet. And it was like from 2005 or something like that. And out of curiosity, I was wondering, can this run Hannah Montana Linux? Everyone has that. And the answer is yes, it can. Oh, good, can this run Hanna-Montana Linux? Everyone has that.

And the answer is yes, it can. Oh, good, good, good. Well done.