LINUX Unplugged - 596: Perilously Pontificated Predictions

Starting point is 00:00:00 Hello friends and welcome back to your weekly Linux talk show. My name is Chris. My name is Wes. My name is Brent. Hello gentlemen and joining us for our 2025 predictions. Michael Tennell from Tux Digital is here back to be our ref. Hello, everybody.

Starting point is 00:00:28 Hey, ref. Hey, welcome back, sir. I predicted I would be back. Very good. Yes, today, we will own up to our 2024 predictions, see how we did, rate ourselves, and then we'll make our bold and powerful predictions for 2025. Like, you could just listen to this episode and skip the rest of,

Starting point is 00:00:46 okay, no, not really, don't do that. Then we're gonna round it out with some great boosts, really cool pick and a lot more. So before we go any further, let's say time appropriate greetings to our virtual log. Hello, mumble room. Hello. Hello, hello. We have a tight crew because we're recording a little early.

Starting point is 00:01:03 So it'll be interesting to see if that room kind of expands as we get closer to our regular lifetime. People just show up, oh, there's a show going on? Yeah, you know, if you're listening live, we're streaming all day, so join us. That's right. And we were marked pending in your podcasting 2.0 app a choice, if that's how you roll.

Starting point is 00:01:20 I also want to say a big good morning to our friends at Tailscale. Tailscale.com slash unplugged. They are the easiest way to say a big good morning to our friends at tailscale tailscale.com slash unplugged They are the easiest way to connect a device or a service to each other wherever they are and you can get it for free for 100 devices and three users when you go to tailscale.com slash unplugged my personal plan That's what I'm on now I'm still using that and then as I went on like this is actually pretty great for the business to I'm still using that and then as I went on this is actually pretty great for the business to

Starting point is 00:01:49 tailscale is super fast and it is very secure because it's built on top of Wild-gold. Yeah, it's really nice and it's easy to deploy. It's a zero config No fuss mesh VPN that you can get up and running in just seconds The personal plan will always be free and if you're an enterprise that ties in with your existing authentication infrastructure, it's intuitive, it's easy to set up access controls, it's zero trust that any organization can use. Try it out. Support the show. Go to tailscale.com slash unplugged. Well, we don't have much time left to mention this, so I want to get it in now why we can.

Starting point is 00:02:24 You have five days to get your paper in for Linux Fest Northwest. If you'd like to present at one of the best Linux conferences celebrating 25 years, you got a couple of days. The deadline is January 10th. Now don't stress out. I happen to know a few folks, but I think you should try to get it in. We'd love to have you get something in there and share it with the community. Speaking of, we better figure out what we're doing, huh, boys? What are we doing? We should do something on Nix. Come on.

Starting point is 00:02:54 I don't know. I've always thought I should do a Home Assistant one, too. You should. You know, the nice thing about that is I could pull in my production, Joop's Home Assistant, and just kind of go through it, really. It could just be like a, here's a good thing. It was right there in the parking lot, you may as well. Class field trip.

Starting point is 00:03:08 I wonder if people would like that. Anyway, so we'll have a link in the show notes, and then Linux Fest Northwest itself runs on April 25th through the 27th in the beautiful Bellingham, Washington, in the peak of it finally turning around and things blooming at the end of April. And we'd love to see you there. Also Planet Nix, their call for papers,

Starting point is 00:03:28 ends on January 6th. Yeah, as of right now that's like 37 hours left to get it in, probably fewer by the time you listen to this. We're gonna be there as well, more details on that coming up soon. And while we're just talking about stuff, remember LUP600 is just around the corner. And if you are feeling like having a party

Starting point is 00:03:46 and celebrating with us on Sunday, February 2nd, just go to colonyevents.com. There's a Gatheo instance there. You can set up your own meetup. We'll have one here in our location too. I'm not quite sure where yet. I'm thinking like there's a couple of places, like right, like walkable distance from the studio

Starting point is 00:04:01 that we could have a meetup at. Oh, that's great. We do the show and then we just show up and have a party. I'm just looking now, we've got seven events listed so far, community events listed all over the world. There's some in UK, some, yeah, all over the place. So if you wanna throw a meetup for some people in your hometown,

Starting point is 00:04:20 please put it there and then we can keep track and try to make some cool things happen. And one last thing before we own up to our 2024 predictions, I just wanted to say a tremendous thank you and a conveyance of immense of gratitude. Just really, no real words can convey how thankful we are.

Starting point is 00:04:39 Fountain FM put out their 2024 rewind and Linux Unplugged was the number two top show for Fountain FM. Our humble little Linux podcast, beat out by a rabbit hole recap. We had the lead until about October. And then they kind of edged us out, but it was a close one.

Starting point is 00:04:58 It was really close. It must have had some killer episodes. Number two, Linux Unplugged on Fountain FM out of all podcasts. Coda Radio had the honor of position five out of all podcasts. And this week in Bitcoin, number six, and the self-hosted podcast number 12 of all podcasts. Wow, that's amazing.

Starting point is 00:05:18 The most supported episode out of all shows published from all podcasts on Fountain FM was Linux Unplugged episode 545, 3062 days later. You remember what that was? The people want Bcache FS. That's what it was about. But I pulled that up. Yeah, that was our interview with Ken Overstreet. That, out of all the podcasts published, out of tens of thousands, got the most boosts. I guess people do like the BcashFS. We should figure out a way to kick some of those sets over the pit.

Starting point is 00:05:52 Yeah, I know, put them in the splits next time. Next time he comes on, we'll do that. We should try to talk him into it. So as we go along today, boost in your 2025 predictions. Maybe we can get to number one for 2025. Also, I'd like your opinion on the tuxes. Please let us know. Touch base on that. Should we keep it going, but retool it a bit? Or are we good with letting it be done? I figure some time has passed since

Starting point is 00:06:15 the tuxes came out. Did you like it? Should we do it again? If we did again, I think we'd retool it. Maybe have the community run it. Somehow. Or maybe we let it be. Boost in, let us know. Yeah. Okay, so let's get into 2024. Ah, this is the worst part. You know, making the predictions is fun. Being honest about it later, less fun.

Starting point is 00:06:39 Now, Ref, since you're our guest, I'm going to play your predictions last. Sounds good to me. So, unless you prefer to go first. You're the guest, so you get to pick. Well, I think the home team should be going first. Okay. All right. I heard some nervousness there.

Starting point is 00:06:53 I mean, I know one of them, but I'm not looking forward to that one. All right. Okay. Well, then let's start with Brownlee, because that was where we went last year. His first prediction for 2024 was... I believe in 2024, we will see a Linux distribution whose main purpose is to enable AI integrated into the desktop environment.

Starting point is 00:07:17 All right, AI in the desktop environment. I think we've seen a lot of tools of various shapes and sizes, but is there a distribution whose main purpose is? All right, Bradley, make your case. Did this happen? Okay. I was very cautious about the wording here.

Starting point is 00:07:35 I figured no main distribution would do this. Like, we wouldn't see Ubuntu do this right away. We might in the next few years. But I think I did pretty well because on January 4th of last year, there was kind of a preview of Deepin integrating AI into their OS. Sure enough, yeah, they did. They even, let's see here, they did a ton of stuff. So I just browse their website quickly and pulled out a few things. The latest one, here's a quote, on December 10th, 2024, that was just recently, they put on the China operating

Starting point is 00:08:11 system conference themed innovation and truth seeking in case you were interested. Anyways, that was held in Beijing and at the event they released their UOS AI 2.0. It was an official release which brings their system level interactive capabilities, an AI efficient office suite, and other AI stuff. So they totally did it. But just in case, because I figured maybe you wouldn't accept that, I found two more. So there's something called MagiOS, which was released in the last few months. It says MagiOS, their little tagline, machine augmented GTK interface.

Starting point is 00:08:52 It's an AI native Linux distribution with deep LLM integration. Okay, all right. I mean, I see you got a couple more in here, but I don't know, how do you feel, Raph? This feels... So I guess we have to clarify something. Is when you said main purpose,

Starting point is 00:09:08 is it like the focal point? Or, fair enough, fair enough. Yeah, okay, this Raph's gonna be tough this year, geez. All right. The worst part is we do it to ourselves. We know the rules. Yeah, that is tricky. I don't know.

Starting point is 00:09:26 Main purpose is like, well, it's main purpose is to be a Linux distro. The main operation, sure. That's hard. So it's kind of a confusing way of saying it. Who let me say it that way? Could we accept like the main focus of the marketing push and the feature set for a release?

Starting point is 00:09:42 Is then like it's the main feature of a release? We could go with that. Yeah. Like the main distinguishing. Yeah, I won't object. Yeah, I think so. And also I think that there's even, there's more examples,

Starting point is 00:09:53 because I can think of one that just did it the end of December. And their main focus, they did like an hour and a half long video demonstrating all their new features. And an hour of that video was just AI stuff. And that was Maculu.

Starting point is 00:10:09 So then and then beyond just them, of course, beyond just desktop Linux, we've seen next cloud do deep integration with AI and other things. So it kind of feels like this one's a winner, don't you think? I would say and also Red Hat announced a bunch of AI stuff. So I'm pretty sure you can definitely give give a credit to Brent. All right. Poof. Magic. Oh, that's a Brent magic.

Starting point is 00:10:28 We got a winner right off the top, boys. Let's see if his second prediction will be so fortunate. In 2024, Rocky Linux will find itself in legal troubles with Red Hat. Ooh, spicy. Ooh, I like the spiciness of that one. I was kind of sure this would happen. And I don't think it did. They kind of made some partnerships and turned their focus a little tiny bit, you know, steered

Starting point is 00:10:54 the ship gently in a different direction. But I could not find any even suggestions that were there was some legal battles or considerations between the two. So I think I deeply failed this one. But I'm curious, did anyone else see anything that might rescue me here? Yeah, I don't think it was a crazy prediction to make. I wouldn't be surprised if books were written about this time in a few years to find out that Red Hat Legal seriously considered it at a couple of points

Starting point is 00:11:27 There might have been some backdoor conversations that we don't know about or red hat just decided it wasn't worth the brand damage Mmm, it probably yeah, I would say that right It wouldn't be worth red hat doing especially like the the way that they're both kind of working is with loopholes and the The way that they're both kind of working is with loopholes in the legal aspects of loopholes. Yeah. So I feel like it would be just kind of a mess. If you reveal my loophole, I'll reveal yours. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:11:53 Exactly. Yeah, let's just both keep making. Yeah, I think Ref is probably an easy call. That one didn't happen. Yeah, that one did not happen. ["Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, Ref, It's all right. It's all right. It's okay. Didn't tell us he was playing the piano. Most of the time I don't get any of mine right. Honestly, getting one is not so bad. Okay, let's see how you go for number three, our last one from Brent. In 2024, the Ubuntu Core desktop will be found as either a download on ubuntu.com slash download

Starting point is 00:12:22 or an Ubuntu flavor. I don't think so. I really, for some reason really wanted this one to happen and I still do. I, I think I'm ex this is the most excited I've been about Ubuntu stuff in a little bit. I searched and searched and searched for even just a keyword on any of these websites that mentioned the core desktop core was mentioned a lot, but not the Core desktop. And so I could not find a single example of me even being close to right on this one.

Starting point is 00:12:53 Yeah, it seemed possible too, because there was those blog posts talking about Core and the improvements to snaps. We did see some updates throughout the year, some blog posts that suggested how it works, and a little more details about it, but we did not see this milestone that I suggested to here. So unfortunately, I think I might get the horns again.

Starting point is 00:13:14 You agree ref? Yeah, I agree. That's all right. Your first one was a winner. That was a good one and you got it. Uh, you know what? That's probably, that's probably better than I'm going to do. But we'll see. OK, Mr. Payne, are you ready for yours? Wes, this was your first prediction for 2024. I predict that in 2024, BcashFS will announce a data corruption bug.

Starting point is 00:13:41 Oh, that was a spicy one. Yeah. Did we get that? I don't think so. I mean, I've been running it on route for at least some of this year and I've been following decently closely. There were certainly lots of bugs fixed, but like there was a kernel corruption bug because of BKESH. Rimshot. People have data. Yeah, true. I don't think it was to win. But you were thinking file system data corruption, right? Like it's a bug that was actually eating people's data, not just a bug where you couldn't mount, you know, like other problems.

Starting point is 00:14:07 Couldn't build. Yeah. Not that I could find. I did do some searching in Pharaonics and, you know, other news sources. Yeah, so a data corruption bug. Yeah, you said data corruption. Yeah. Plenty of bugs, but I don't think anything that serious.

Starting point is 00:14:21 There was some data corruption issues with OpenZFS' native encryption, but that's a totally different kind of system. Ah, you just named the wrong project, Wes. Oh, we should have thought of ZFS. I think, yeah, Raph would probably agree, it sounds like maybe a miss then. Yeah, it's a miss. All right. Thankfully, it's one I'm happy about.

Starting point is 00:14:40 Yeah, yeah, maybe because you put it out there, Pete, they were determined to prevent it from happening, you know? So it's probably thanks to you it didn't happen. Must prove Wes wrong. If you would have predicted they would have had no data corruption bug, we would have had a problem. You would have had a problem in particular. And that would be a much bolder suggestion, especially for a quote unquote experimental.

Starting point is 00:15:00 It could almost make it now though, maybe. Really? Well, let's see what Wes comes up with later. Yeah, I think the prediction this year is does it make it to the kernel. Fair enough. Okay, Wes, this was your second prediction for 2024. I predict that in 2024,

Starting point is 00:15:16 the Debian project will announce it is dropping official support for the 32-bit x86 architecture. Oh, Wes, Debian doesn't do anything fast. No, it doesn't, and this didn't happen. Although I think we're getting a little bit closer just recently, it does sound like they're dropping an i386 from the installation media, but the archive support remains.

Starting point is 00:15:38 Yeah, and we're also seeing RISC-V get more and more support from Debian. So you're trading that for another, I suppose. Which is kind of what we observed when we did our challenge, right? Like 32-bit was suddenly becoming a third class and other systems like ARM and eventually RISC-V will be better support than it. Well I'm a bit curious about this one. I think by the time that Debian gets rid of 32-bit will people forget that 32-bit existed. Maybe. That would be the timeline I would expect. Yeah, but Wes, I'm curious about this one

Starting point is 00:16:05 because if you go by the wording, it could be interpreted that they're dropping it from the installer could fit. You didn't specifically say that, but it depends on the interpretation. There's some unintentional vagueness there. I think we leave it to the ref. What do you say, fail or a winner, Wes?

Starting point is 00:16:22 Interesting point, Brent. So as long as the outcome is technically correct, as Futurama's proved that is all you need to be, I think that it's okay to give it a win. Wow, a surprise win! So I'm arguing against myself? Incredible, all right. Technically correct is the best kind of correct.

Starting point is 00:16:46 There we go. Well done, Wes Payne. Poof, magic. All right, Wes, you got number two right. It's interesting too because, you know, we just talked about CDs and burning CDs and that feels like that's fading too. It's kind of at that same point.

Starting point is 00:17:01 I used the 32-bit machine to accomplish that task. All right, here was your third prediction for 2024. I predict that in 2024, ingenuity, our dear Linux copter, will suffer some kind of fault or will lose contact in such a way that the ingenuity missions come to a halt. So sad. Man, I hate that you made that prediction and I hate that you got that one

Starting point is 00:17:26 I know is right just in my heart. Uh huh. Yeah. Yeah. I'm curious Wes, what made you come up with this prediction? Because I don't know, it kind of goes against everything we believe. Well, last year Wes made a bunch of predictions he hoped didn't come true. I don't really know what struck me to do that, but that's where I ended up. And we'd had such a good year of reporting on them. You know, unexpected. Yeah, just look at how incredible it did, right? It performed 72 flights.

Starting point is 00:17:55 It flew more than 14 times further than planned. While logging more than two hours of total flight time, I'm reading this from the NASA news site. After proven we could even fly on another world at all. Yeah. So yeah, I think it was a fair one to make just because it exceeded expectations by two miles. I wonder though, would you make a similar prediction

Starting point is 00:18:18 this year about the actual rover itself or is that? Hmm. Oh, okay. Not yet. Ref, I think it's a winner, what do you think? Yes, I give it a winner. Yeah, good job Wes, that? Hmm. Oh, okay. Not yet. Ref, I think it's a winner. What do you think? Yes, I give it a winner. Yeah, good job, Wes. That's two.

Starting point is 00:18:28 The hesitation was my sadness. Sorry, everyone. I apologize. Ah. Okay. All right, so that's Wes's three predictions. Now we'll get to mine. We'll see how I did.

Starting point is 00:18:43 I have not heard these yet, so I'm gonna hit play now on my first prediction for 2024. In 2024, the Cosmic Desktop will ship in some form alpha, beta, 1.0 for general desktop users to try. Wait, is that correct? Alpha shipped, but then I said 1.0 in there. Those are two different things. You don't have an alpha 1.0.

Starting point is 00:19:02 I think that's when you were enumerating possible forms. Technically, yeah, I felt like you were saying all of those things. You don't have an alpha 1.0. I think that's you were enumerating possible forms. Technically, yeah, I felt like you were saying all of those things. It's insurance. It was like a potential. You were saying that it was going to be alpha or beta or a 1.0 or something. I'm going to try not to be that broad this year, but I think that then is technically correct. Right? Do you agree? Yeah. Well, because I think you also put at the end for users to try. Yeah. And they very much intentionally put out releases for users to try. Yeah. And they very much intentionally put out releases

Starting point is 00:19:25 for users to try. Yeah, okay. All right, then I'm taking that as a win. Yep. Yeah. Yeah, I think that was maybe a little too broad though. Throwing in the one data was ridiculous. Yeah, yeah, yeah.

Starting point is 00:19:40 That would have been a bold prediction. Yeah. If the one point had happened, it would have been just insane to. If the one point had happened, it would have been just insane. Yeah. I mean, maybe, maybe this year. But even, I would, even that, I would, I don't know, 0.5, 0.8, 0.9, you know, I could see that more likely.

Starting point is 00:19:55 Yeah, but they do have the incentive to ship it ASAP. Yeah. They have a roadmap. Yeah. As soon as they want to make that announcement, they're going to 1.0 it, even if maybe it's not quite right. True. Well, that's what 1.5 is for. Right.

Starting point is 00:20:09 1.2. You can't leave those two zeros hanging around the release forever. 1.2.3.4 and, you know. Plasma 6 style, OK? Yeah. OK, we ready for my second prediction of 2024? Here we go.

Starting point is 00:20:22 In 2024, a NixOS-based desktop will be recognized by Distrowatch. I don't think this one was true because I was expecting Snowflake and things like that. What I did see GUIX is listed. Not NixOS-based, in spirit, I suppose. Yes, things like that, but NixOS itself is on DistrowWatch, but nothing else based on NixOS remains on DistroWatch. A DHH almost had you here, but not quite.

Starting point is 00:20:52 Yeah. NixOS is 17 on DistroWatch. It's interesting. Higher than I might have thought. Yeah, really. No kidding. I think that's a fail on my part. I don't know why Snowflake's not on there. It's a good little distro.

Starting point is 00:21:04 It's been around for a minute now. It probably deserves to be on Distro Watch, but they're not gonna listen to me. So, Raph, I think you probably agree. I botch this one. Yeah, this one is a no. Yeah. Yeah, yeah.

Starting point is 00:21:16 Why did I make any predictions based on what distro watch? I don't know. I guess maybe just because it is very easy to verify. Yeah, yes, and it just felt the inevitability of it felt, well, inevitable, but apparently it was not as inevitable as I thought it was. I'm surprised you didn't go and like submit it yourself. I think my IP's banned, I don't know.

Starting point is 00:21:35 Okay, let's see how I did for my third prediction for Twanhawnafa. In 2024, we'll see the open source Nvidia driver replacement NVK shipped by one of the big distros, such as Fedora, Ubuntu, or one of the primary rolling distributions. Not a sub-distro, but one of the primary distros, and they'll make it easy and approachable

Starting point is 00:21:56 for everyday NVIDIA users that have compatible hardware to use NVK. Okay, so this one is a little hard to actually totally measure, because the way this ended up shipping was a new version of Mesa. So if a distribution shipped Mesa 24.0 and the appropriate kernel stack, then they shipped NVK this year. And so I looked into this. Of course, it's available in Arch, it's available in Nix, but it is also available in Ubuntu 2410 and in Fedora 41. Really? Yes.

Starting point is 00:22:32 So I think it's, even though I don't have any Nvidia hardware to verify it, I believe it is technically correct. And this was also the year it became possible to run Wayland on that driver. It is, yeah. And so there are, yeah, there are Fedora GNOME workstation desktops out there going full Maniac style with like an Nvidia card in it.

Starting point is 00:22:52 Now it's only compatible with like the Turing and Later cards. Right. So it's a limited set. You know, you got to basically be willing to mortgage your house, but if you do, you can then, you know, pay, you can make a payment on an Nvidia card that'll run natively on Linux with NVK and Wayland, but you have to be, as of today, on one of the absolute latest distributions. And Fedora is also the ones who, like,

Starting point is 00:23:14 decided to stop using X and going Wayland only because of these kinds of things with Nvidia. Yeah. So I think that's a win, right? So based on our previous... We've already established that technically correct is a way to win. You just, you get a win on this one. I think it's the best way to be correct.

Starting point is 00:23:32 All right, I'll take it. Two out of three. I think we're doing better than normal. Poof. That's true. That spells bad things for next year. If there's a version to convene. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:23:42 Okay, Ref, you made two predictions yourself. Here is your first prediction for 2024. My prediction for 2024 is that Valve will not release SteamOS as a public release distro. You got it. Yeah. You got that one. That's an easy one. Nice.

Starting point is 00:24:01 I forgot about that one entirely, so I got one. That's nice. Why did you know? why did you know? How did you know? It seems like it- There's so many people were saying that this was gonna happen. And based on the track record of the fact

Starting point is 00:24:12 that they have issued zero, even ISOs to be able to use it on anything other than the Steam Deck. They only have like the recovery image and nothing else. And people were talking about how this is going to be something that they wanted to use and all that. And I just felt like after a few years of it not being out, they're not, they don't have an intention to release it out like this at all.

Starting point is 00:24:33 I don't think that they will ever probably ever release it as a general desktop thing. They might like this. Is that this year's prediction? My, I do have a little bit of a prediction. Or just a recurring prediction. Yeah. No, that's just my opinion. But I do have a prediction now for this one because I'm going to follow

Starting point is 00:24:50 up. Okay. Yeah, interesting, right? It was a good call. Just as a little reminder for folks, the Steam Deck shipped February 28th, 2022. And before it even shipped, Valve engineers were teasing the idea of releasing SteamOS for general PCs. So I thought it maybe would happen, but Michael was correct. So I think that right there is a winner.

Starting point is 00:25:13 Congratulations, Raph. Your first win is a winner. OK. Number two. Number two for 2024. The Linux market share for Steam on the Steam platform will be going to 5% market share for 2024. The Linux market share for Steam on the Steam platform will be going to 5% market share in 2024. Woo! You were bullish.

Starting point is 00:25:32 I was. I like where you're coming from. I was really close. What'd we get, like 4.8, was it? I think it was something like, I think it was 4.7, I think. 4.7, okay. I think it was, like, I think it was 4.7, I think. 4.7? Okay. I think it was, I don't remember,

Starting point is 00:25:47 but I remember when I, I covered it on the show, talking about it and then like the four or five. And then when I was saying four or five, the visual said something higher. Yeah. I mean, it was a good year. I have no complaints, right? You know, four, seven-ish, whatever it is, whatever stat counter you look at.

Starting point is 00:26:06 Does half a point count because no one expected even four? Sure, yeah. You know, here, have the, well, the eagle will fly one in. There you go, there's your half. But you have to save up the half point till you can redeem it in units of full points. Yeah, right. Okay, all right, so let's see then.

Starting point is 00:26:21 That is all of our predictions for 2024. That means it's time. All that's left is our 2025 boys. I think that's what comes up next. OnePassword.com slash unplugged. Yeah, that's the number one password.com slash unplugged. So to your end users always, and I mean always without any exception, work on the devices you've approved

Starting point is 00:26:46 Use the applications you've approved and the services that you've reviewed and approved and made sure they meet all your guidelines I doubt it. I think if we're being real with ourselves, it's just not really possible in today's world users are spoiled in a good way lots of great devices lots of great services and Employees want to get more done. And they also have to do things remotely more than they ever had to do. You know, there's all kinds of devices coming along. I was just looking at a E Ink display. Connects into the company calendar.

Starting point is 00:27:15 Put it on your fridge, put it on your wall. It actually looks really cool. But how do you keep your company's data safe when it's sitting on all these unmanaged apps and devices? That's a real chore. And OnePassword finally has the answer to this question. It's extended access management by OnePassword. Yeah, it's OnePassword's extended access management. It helps you secure every sign-in for every app on every device.

Starting point is 00:27:41 It solves the problems that IAMs and MDMs just weren't built to touch back in the day. It's security for the way we actually work today. It makes things easier on the end user, easier on IT. It also makes reporting and accounting a lot easier as well. And the great news is it's generally available for companies with Okta and Microsoft Entra, and also it's in beta for Google Workspace customers as well. This is a really powerful tool. Go check it out. Support the show. Just go to onepassword.com slash unplugged. That is the number one password.com slash unplugged.

Starting point is 00:28:14 It's really simple. Great way to support the show. Onepassword.com slash unplugged. Well, considering it is 2025, we need to make predictions for this year. And given how last year went, well, you boys did all right. I'm falling to the bottom of the pack here, so I got to catch up. And I think I might have some predictions for you. Ooh, all right. Let's hear it. Okay. I don't know about these. Number here, number one, okay, I'm gonna explain what I think and why I think. Lean into it, man, lean into it.

Starting point is 00:28:49 All right, from, now I'm reconsidering, but I think perhaps from three major vendors we're going to see a RISC-V production quality machine of some sort, laptop, server, something like that. So I, it's a little risky, but, um, I think I'm going to go with it. So it could be either a laptop, a server, or like some kind of production machine there they have actually for sale. So the question becomes, does developer edition type of stuff count? Oh yeah.

Starting point is 00:29:27 Oh, oh yeah. If you can buy it on the website accounts. And if two vendors do it, but a third doesn't. No, I see. This is where my wording is going to be very specific. Yeah. So here, let me, let me practice my wording so we can, and then real quick too. Do we consider like framework and system 76 as one of these vendors or is it a.

Starting point is 00:29:44 They like framework already has one out right so that yes they did really what so the ones that already do like the the other one they have I forgot the name of the company but the other one that already has one yeah I was gonna say one of del Lenovo or HP that's a strong that's a strong one because I think they're the slowest to adopt these kinds of things. Yeah. But we can let them hang and- That sounds like you guys- It's very specific, it's easy to verify.

Starting point is 00:30:10 Walk me off the edge here, guys. Should I include another vendor then to make this a little more real? Or maybe just make it two. What about just two vendors? Well, I said one of those. So the more I include, the better. Oh.

Starting point is 00:30:22 One of them. You could also say a major vendor and then we could define what major means later. Well. Sounds risky. I don't know, I feel like. He's saying one of these major vendors, one of them. That seems possible, possible.

Starting point is 00:30:39 If you don't specify the major vendor, those being those three, I think there's more chance to it being right. Because they're- You have a ref trying to do your job here by narrowing it. Oh, I'm trying, see, I'm just trying to help. I'm more of the guidance now. I'm the coach.

Starting point is 00:30:55 So I'm the ref when we do the predictions of the stuff, but I'm the coach when it- Yeah, you gotta help us narrow it down, make sure it's a good, solid prediction. Okay, but in a year from now, how will you measure this? Well, in rough mode turns back on and then I'll tell you. Well, if any of them release, if Dell, Lenovo, HP, or I would say like maybe Asus and Acer,

Starting point is 00:31:18 these types of vendors. Yeah, Acer, any of the ones that are technically like absolute major brands that people have heard of that are not just like esoteric things, I think that would be okay. Would your mom buy it without you having to tell her what it was or tell her the website? If you can find it in Best Buy, that counts as major. All right. That's interesting.

Starting point is 00:31:35 So I think as long as we're all in agreement on the language around major laptop vendor, then I think the prediction language works, right? I think we could lock that in, you know? Unless Brent really wants to be that, take that leap of faith and say only that one of those three. I mean, you guys seem to think it's a real bad idea. I just want you to have a W, buddy. Oh, thanks. Okay, let me workshop this single liner

Starting point is 00:32:03 that we can use here, so tell me if I get this. Okay. So I believe in 2025, we will see a RISC-V machine available for purchase. So that's a laptop, desktop, server from a major vendor. I like it. The only thing I would tweak is I wouldn't, I wouldn't define laptop, desktop, server, just machine, because it could be, you know, maybe, maybe, how about somebody puts out an SPC that counts. It needs to be consumer oriented though. Well, a server is not consumer

Starting point is 00:32:37 oriented. Right. That's what I'm saying. I'm saying like, because you're, you originally you were talking about laptop and desktop, and then a server would not be Like that would not be the thing actually category it may happen on the server before it happens on those two other ones I think that's true true. Yeah, yeah So a commercially available machine about that you can say that that seems good, right? All right, okay Brent lock it in I believe in 2025 we will see a commercially available machine it in. I believe in 2025 we will see a commercially available machine be released using risk five from major vendors. Okay, prediction one from Brent is locked in. Do you have another prediction for us lined up, Bradley? I do. You guys tell me if this is a cop out or not, but I really want

Starting point is 00:33:24 this Ubuntu core desktop thing to happen. And think this year is the year so I might just Throw that one back in the bucket if I'm allowed to do that. Yeah, I think I think they're the best Yeah, I think it's valid. I think it's I think it's probable this year I I would have I would have bet last year on with you too. So thank you. Thank you If it doesn't happen this year is not happening Maybe oh interesting. Oh lock it in. Let's see. All right. In 2025, the Ubuntu core desktop will be found as either a download on Ubuntu dot com slash download or as an Ubuntu flavor. All right. And you have a third and final prediction for 2025.

Starting point is 00:34:05 I do. How to word this one. So we've seen a little bit of an influx of people switching to Linux recently, more than typical. I think this year we're going to see a major influx of that happening from specifically YouTube creators who aren't Linux based. So I think this is where I'm not so sure about this one, but I'm going to go bold. I want to say we're going to see something like an I switched video.

Starting point is 00:34:38 So someone says I switched to Linux, but the timeframe might be like for a week, for a day, for a month, uh, from a major YouTuber such as, or tech YouTuber for such as MKBHD, which is like the most probably not going to happen, but maybe, or LTT will do another Linux based challenge. It's been what three years since the last one, or I'm going to throw in Mr. Who's the boss for fun. Hmm. Okay. It's been what three years since the last one or I'm gonna throw in mr. Who's the boss for fun? Hmm Okay, so a couple thoughts I have here First is we probably need to define major like do we want to set like a subscriber count like hundred thousand more or more?

Starting point is 00:35:15 Oh interesting Yeah, and also are we saying that they're switching or they're doing a challenge type of thing just a challenge Yeah, I don't think any of them will switch full time. If they do, I mean, that'd be sweet. But I think it's going to be more like an experiment based. Like, hey, I tried this for, but actually try it as their main operating system for a period of time. That's more than a couple hours. All right.

Starting point is 00:35:39 OK. Hmm, sounds frustrating. Ha ha. Ha ha. Ha ha. What are you making us in for this? We're gonna be making clips again. All right, lock it in, Brian.

Starting point is 00:35:51 I like it. Yeah, I don't know how to quite lock this one in. There's a lot to go to it. So maybe key components here. Do I want to be specific again? I did do the three specific YouTubers this time, but you guys seem to think I should do subscriber-shed. You know three specific youtubers this time you guys seem to think I should do Subscribers I think I think if you put the three specific you're almost guaranteed not gonna get it

Starting point is 00:36:16 Yeah, but I think that if you had like a subscriber count there's a possibility. Yeah. Yeah, I agree Okay, well then help me figure out what a reasonable subscriber count is over a million Maybe go pull up those three that you're looking at. I would say like I don't know I mean, it's a the tech space isn't you know huge huge so I don't maybe 100k. I don't I don't know I think 100k is doable to for a lot I've seen a lot of tech people that are 100k that are generic tech and I still would say that that's not necessarily major in the tech space because if you look at like I still would say that that's not necessarily major in the tech space because if you look at like

Starting point is 00:36:52 LTT with like 15 million or something like that, right? Right. I'm going bold. I'm saying over a million. All right Okay, buddy. Okay is not enough. All right walker in in 2025 we will see a tech youtuber of over a million subscribers We will see a tech youtuber of over a million subscribers Do a I switched style video for Linux using it as their main desktop OS for a period of time. I Hope I mean I hope to see that and I hope to see it go well You know because it always I'm not predicting how it'll go I wonder you know what's gonna be funny is the next year when we do this thing and we we do the ref and I

Starting point is 00:37:25 Have a feeling that at some point This is gonna come up and the answer will have been because he put tech youtuber in there the tech part makes it not correct But like I like it like creatives and The coach was having a drink. Ah. Can I read that? It's locked in, Britt. No, it's locked in. It's locked in, buddy.

Starting point is 00:37:46 It's locked in. Oh, what have I done? What have I done? Ah. All right, Wes, you got some predictions for 2025? I do. Okay, so number one, I think you, Mr. Chris Fisher, are gonna pick up a RISC-V device,

Starting point is 00:37:59 by which I mean like RISC-V as primary CPU, not like a hard drive with a RISC-V processor or whatever, of some kind in 2025. From a main vendor, right? Maybe a laptop, but more likely a Pi equivalent. No, I think it's just going to be, it's a Risk 5 device. It's not a review unit, but an own? Yeah, you're going to buy it.

Starting point is 00:38:14 Okay. Chris buys a Risk 5 device. Is it a safe prediction to do when the other person is having control of whether or not you get it right? It's very surprising how much we've failed these, even though we have some influence. Well, it's just because in two days we will forget. I think there's enough incentive for him to do it, but I think that will overcome the spite of him wanting me to lose.

Starting point is 00:38:37 I mean, let's be fair, I'll forget that you made this prediction. And so that won't really be a factor, but I'm wondering why I would want to risk five device. Well, that's what you'll find out this year. Because you gotta RISC it to get the biscuit. That's right. Okay, you know, I do love the biscuit. Okay, all right, you wanna lock that in? I do.

Starting point is 00:38:55 I predict that in 2025, Chris Fisher purchases a RISC-V device that is a RISC-V device that has a RISC-V processor as its primary cbu Interesting interesting, you know what I would love to see is way back in the day I'm if you guys remember I there's a few of these in the school that I went to these Macs that had x86 like 486 processor Daughter cards that plugged into like what was the equivalent of like an ISA or PCI slot.

Starting point is 00:39:26 But it was an entire Intel PC with storage and RAM. And it was all on this expansion card that you would put into in the Mac. And then you would run software in Mac OS. What? That could talk to the card. And you were running a physical hardware version of Windows inside that.

Starting point is 00:39:47 It was really cool. I'd love to recreate that one day. And I was just thinking with RISC-V. That would be a nice way to try it. It really would. Without having to invest in a whole separate machine. And I'd pay a little bit extra to have like basically an embedded, you know, Odroid style N100

Starting point is 00:40:02 or whatever it is. See? Yeah, there you go, there you go. I'm starting to is. See, it didn't even take two days. Took like two seconds. Okay. All right, Wes, you got one. Uh, you got another one for old 20, 25 for us. I do.

Starting point is 00:40:18 I think you'll like this one. All right. I, I predict that a distribution or spin or addition will feature BcacheFS as default files. And here's what I really mean. I can go to a website, download an ISO, click through the installation defaults and get BcacheFS. Right? So it could be a spin or an addition. It doesn't need to be like the whole distribution. What about an installer type of thing, like a distro that's based in Arch, like Endeavor, that has a bunch of stuff, but it it has a default of that are you saying that would count too. Yeah, that's the basic thing

Starting point is 00:40:49 It's like you by default. There's a way to download an ISO where it is the default. Yeah. Oh Okay, I don't think that exists it no not be cash. It's rare to even see butter FS is the default right now So that's pretty quantifiable because I think we would be all over that if that happened. We would probably. We would at least talk about it if we try it. Yeah. I think. That seems like a pretty easy one to lock ref, I think.

Starting point is 00:41:11 You have any suggestions for tweaks? I think that it's pretty solid. All right, Wes. I predict that in 2025, the distribution or spin or addition will feature BcacheFS as default file system. By which I mean, you can go to the website, download an ISO, click through the defaults of the installer without having to change anything.

Starting point is 00:41:31 And you will get BcacheFS as your main file system. I hope so. I really do, because, you know, we just need more eyes on that. I don't need to go in a whole file system, right? I've saved it. OK, I got a couple options here for the third, if we want. I don't know if any of those I did system rant. I've saved it. Okay. I got a couple options here for the third if we want I don't know if any of those I did the same yeah conflict with yours, or we like better, but okay I default I'll just do number three that I have but if you like any other I like them all and I guess five I already yeah. Yeah, so okay. Okay. Yeah, all right. I predict that in 2025 actually let me rephrase that.

Starting point is 00:42:05 I predict that at the end of 2025, all three of us will still be using NixOS as our primary workstation desktop operating system. Well, I mean, once you go NixOS, you don't go back. That's the theory. I feel like this is the most easy one of all the ones. It seems too easy. I was thinking that was the easiest one. Is it disqualified because it's too predictable? I mean, stranger things have happened.

Starting point is 00:42:34 And I can control what I do, obviously, but I can't control what you two do. And I mean, if it's really frustrating to use, then maybe I'll switch. I think the question that has to be answered is would a spin or a derivative, like we're gonna talk about a distribution next week, that if there was a Nix-based version of that,

Starting point is 00:42:51 I'd probably be running it daily. Ooh, yeah, maybe. So sort of like a snowflake, but like something that's, if another, like- The way he phrased it implies that it's going to be NixOS itself. Yeah, upstream NixOS. You also said still using does that mean we don't

Starting point is 00:43:08 Drop off of NYXOS throughout the year or we're back on I think I would remove the still I think I would just still using it is correct though If because you said by the end of the year you would still use it because you're using it now At the beginning and at the end if you leave it and then come back you're still using it at that point Okay. Yeah, that's what I'm intending. Yeah That's what I'm thinking is it does leave room for us to wander and then come back But I think we have to answer to the derivatives count like if I'm using you know snowflake or if I'm using something else that's like

Starting point is 00:43:38 You know, I would argue that if it's you know, you still editing a configuration that makes that's using the NICs OS tooling to build itself. Yes, but I'm OK either way. I feel like your language is like, but I'm fine with just sticking with. I'll predict just Doc NICs. So that's fine, too. Yeah, let's do it. I think it gives a little bit more spice because that's where the variability is. All right. You want to lock it in?

Starting point is 00:43:57 I do. OK. I predict that at the end of twenty twenty five, all three of us, Chris, Wes and Brent are using NICs OS stock, you three of us, Chris, Wes, and Brent, are using NixOS stock, you know, regular NixOS, not a derivative, as our primary workstation desktop operating system. Now you got a boner prediction in there that it's one of these spicy Wes ones. I think we could have a couple unofficial ones. We don't have to lock them in or anything.

Starting point is 00:44:24 We could just kind of toss them out there for the audience to chew on. You want to toss this one out there? Yeah, I'm going to predict that more kernel maintainers are removed due to international conflicts or sanctions. Bummer Wes is back. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:44:38 Oh man. I think, you know, that could very likely happen. There is a possibility for sure. Took a long time for the Russian stuff to just kind of come to head after years. So hmm. Okay. I hope not but we'll see I see you have cosmic One dot oh shit. Yeah, I just realized none of us had that. Yeah, but it came up so naturally. It's all mine list actually Okay, okay. Great. I also have some hidden Predictions, right? I didn't there's an encrypted one here Oh, you're right. I didn't. There's an encrypted one here.

Starting point is 00:45:03 Yeah, I have some encrypted. What's going on? I encrypted mine. All right, okay. So are you ready boys for mine? I'll pick my top three and I'll give you some of my boner ones in here. So my number one prediction,

Starting point is 00:45:16 and I could probably tweak the language on this a little bit, but in 2025, a major Linux distribution is gonna begin experimenting with declarative configuration systems for a reproducible system state and potentially revolutionizing that distribution's package management approach. And we'll refer to it as NICS inspired, you know, that's not I'm adding this, but I think a couple I think I don't know if it's going to be SUS.

Starting point is 00:45:40 I don't know if it's going to be like an Ubuntu spin. Here's what I do know is that there is a solid chunk of people inside Canonical today using NixOS. And I just wonder where that leads in the future. And does at some point a distribution like it's like, you know, you kind of like how we have UBLUE, which is Fedora adjacent. Something comes along that's like Fedora adjacent or SUSE adjacent or Ubuntu adjacent or maybe Debian adjacent.

Starting point is 00:46:10 And it allows you to stand up a system like you do with a configuration file in Nix. What do you think? You're thinking over there? Do you have a, what would you say as your proto lock-in? That's what I wanna hear. A major Linux distribution will begin experimenting with declarative configurations for reproducible system

Starting point is 00:46:28 states. So a distribution that doesn't do it today, that has, you know. OK, how do we define major? Because you said major, right? I would say, hmm, yeah, good point. Top five? We could always go back to the top 10 list of DistroWatch. Because here's how I think it'll manifest,

Starting point is 00:46:44 is I don't think it'll be like, Ubuntu is now switching from apt to, it will be like, here's a flavor of Ubuntu where we're managing apt and snaps using declarative configuration. And it's like this version you can go get, or maybe it's a version of fedora. Would you want it to be a flavor or a derivative,

Starting point is 00:47:01 like a mantorn elementary type? I think it could even be pre flavor Okay, you know it's it's like a community spun up thing based on one of these distributions some kind of remakes. Yeah Yeah, and so we're sure this doesn't exist yet Well, I mean you could install nix on any of these distributions But what I'm saying is like they're gonna engineer their own not invented here solution Yeah, out of using app that there's like a comp a yaml file and Etsy Yeah, I want to you that I can use to install package, right? Oh, you're saying as in building their own

Starting point is 00:47:32 That's like that's inspired by nix, but doesn't use nix of any kind. I love this. This is great That's what I'm saying is because they'll see oh, there's a market need here But people don't quite get it and so we can make something for our existing users, and that'll kind of be the idea. What idea is major could be top 10 on Distro 1? Yeah, although I think that's really desktop-focused. True. Yeah. That's my only- You could say-

Starting point is 00:47:56 So would you be willing to list a set of acceptable distros? Well, it's like, I feel, hmm. You could say mainstream type of distros. I think even stream would count in this context. You know, like, wouldn't a reproducible version of sent off stream that you just have a declarative configuration would actually be kind of badass.

Starting point is 00:48:13 And yeah, you can do with Ansible and you can do it with install answer scripts. But I'm talking about like something that's more of like. Out of the box. But vanilla OS wouldn't count? I mean, if they just had been introduced in 2025. It needs to be something, yeah, that doesn't exist today. But just, I mean, is that would that be major?

Starting point is 00:48:30 That's the part I'm... I would say that that's major, necessarily. Like, how about a major base? You know, like it's not... Yeah, yes, it's based on a major distribution. That's the wording. That's it right there. Yeah, that's it. OK. All right, I'm going to try locking this in.

Starting point is 00:48:42 Here, I'll give you my test verbage and you tell me how it sounds. All right. In 2025, a distribution based on a major Linux distribution will ship that is experimenting with declarative configuration for a reproducible system. That all right. Should I lock that in? That's pretty good. Sounds good. Okay. In 2025, a flavor, a spin or a remix based on a major Linux distribution will experiment

Starting point is 00:49:09 with declarative configuration to create a reproducible system. I don't know. I think you need to redo that. I liked the shipping. You said, we'll ship. But experimenting is pretty broad. I could redo it. Okay.

Starting point is 00:49:23 I could do it. What does the ref think? I would agree that the experimenting, you could just, because if they're not actually shipping anything to use, they could just be playing with something. Yeah, okay. All right, I'll clarify. In 2025, inspired by NixOS, but not based on NixOS,

Starting point is 00:49:40 a major distribution-based flavor spin or remix will ship a declarative configuration system for a reproducible system state. I think it will be hilarious the same thing happens to you that would happen to Brent where you said it's not based on NixOS and someone does do something. That's why I said it because I don't think it counts, although it would be neat to see. I don't think it counts if they use Nix. They should. Be clear. They should, to be clear.

Starting point is 00:50:05 They should. It's like an anti-prediction. It'll be very frustrating for us. Yes, yeah, yeah, yeah. Okay, this one I feel like I have a pretty good shot at, but I predict in 2025, Debian 13 will finally make the complete Wayland default switch.

Starting point is 00:50:20 So right now it's only Gnome. But in Debian 13 Trixie, it's Wayland across the board or nothing. Wow. For anything? So they won't even like, if XFCE hasn't been made still ready, they won't. They'll ship it on XDE.

Starting point is 00:50:37 Well, you'll be able to install X, right? It's just the default is going to be Wayland. Like it's going to be available. And if you installed XFCE, you would pull down the dependencies. But I'm thinking Trixie, which I think is latter half of 2025 comes out and they make the cut because you know,

Starting point is 00:50:50 I mean, I know you Michael, you saw the news that X has gotten, it's getting like no contribution. It finally got the most contribution since 2014 and that's because essentially one person was making a few security patches and CI improvements. Yeah, it's getting the X very soon. It's also gotten no contributions for like the last five years. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:51:09 It's been in maintenance mode on purpose for a very long time and that is it is going to be gone fairly soon. Red Hat announced already that they're going to, I think 2026 is when it's supposed to be. And I just feel like for good hygiene, for good security practices, for pushing users in the right direction over time, Trixie's the place to make this because you've got, you know, the great thing about Debian

Starting point is 00:51:32 is you've got time to switch over, they take time, they'll start signaling this, I would imagine, you know, well before the, this could be, I would think they would already be signaling this, to be honest with you, so it's a bit of a long shot, but I'm making it a prediction because it should happen. And they did it with Gnome and it really wasn't a big deal.

Starting point is 00:51:49 We really haven't, the last release of Debian did it with Gnome and we really haven't heard many complaints. You're saying Wayland support across the board or Wayland by default across the board? Wayland by default doesn't mean X11 isn't available as like a dependency, but by default when you install Debian, it's

Starting point is 00:52:06 installing desktops that use Wayland. So to be fair to you, I don't want to, I'm not trying to say you should change your prediction, but I just wanted to, I don't know what all the DEs that Debian offers in the installer. I don't remember what they are. Oh, I know. Oh, for sure. Some of them don't support Wayland for sure. Right.

Starting point is 00:52:22 So how would that work? I think, I don't know. That's a good question. In my mind. I have two minds. One mind is they're just not in like the GUI installer, right? They're still available depending on a, you know, a more manual route or like the net installer, but they're not in the GUI installer would be one option. That's one route or option two would be the defaults, like all of them made in the list, like your plasmas, your genomes, whatever else,

Starting point is 00:52:49 cosmic, whatever you can. Right. That's Wayland, but then if you do choose XFCE or LXDE, then they do the dependency install of X11. So I do think it's possible that LXDE, because of all the Raspberry Pi work, dependency install of X11. So I do think it's possible that LXDE, because of all the Raspberry Pi work, that that might be a Wayland based desktop at some point. And XDE just announced too. So I think it's possible. I guess I would have to say that if the desktop is not currently planning towards a Wayland support, that one can be an exception to the prediction.

Starting point is 00:53:20 If they're ones that are not currently planning towards a Wayland support, that one can be an exception to the prediction. If they're ones that are planning it, like XTC and Cinnamon. Yeah, so maybe the language is all of the Wayland capable desktops will be Wayland default. Okay, yeah, that's good. All right. All right, I'm going to try to lock this in. Here we go.

Starting point is 00:53:41 Wait, wait. Are they also going to ship declarative configurations? I wish. Two in one? Here we go. Wait, wait, are they also gonna ship declarative configurations? I wish. Two in one? In 2025, Debian 13 Trixie will ship and every desktop that is capable of supporting Wayland will have Wayland support turned on by default.

Starting point is 00:54:02 All right, I hope that happens. I really should happen. Fingers crossed for you. Okay, so I got a couple of other crazy ones in here. I feel like, so my prediction that I punted for a couple of years, and it's probably likely going to happen this year finally, is paid apps on FlatHub. Right? I mean, by the end of 2025, we're probably going to see...

Starting point is 00:54:24 Seems possible. Yeah. I hope so. I hope so, and it better happen. I feel like that would be a wiener, and I've picked that one before, and in a way, I'd like to pick it again because it's been a loser for me for two years, but I also thought I could go kind of spicy and say that, you know, LibreOffice announces some big collaboration web-based real-time feature, similar to Google Docs. That could be interesting.

Starting point is 00:54:51 Didn't they kind of already do that with Calabra? Yeah, I'm thinking this is more like, I don't know, so that could be, I'm thinking this is, I looked at it and I thought, I'm thinking this is more like you're in Rider, you go to the file menu, you go collaborative session or whatever, like it'll be a menu, might not be in the file menu, right? You go to a menu in Rider, you go to the file menu, you go collaborative session or whatever, like it'll be a menu, might not be in the file menu, but you go to a menu in Rider,

Starting point is 00:55:09 and it takes that doc and it moves it to a web session and boom, now you're editing with somebody. And it's like a similar UI, I don't know, maybe not. Okay, that's one of my options. And then the other one I have is Proton 10 comes out. And you know, a bunch more compatibility. know, it's very much more compatible. Yeah, right. A bunch more compatibility valve might even like tout some

Starting point is 00:55:28 of the specific percentage compatibility now has been achieved. So those are my choices. I don't really know. I think, you know, I could I could go with any of those. I think you put yourself in a situation where you have very specific predictions that are hard to, like you have a very low, you don't have a 50% chance of getting some of these. You have less than that. Is that a prediction?

Starting point is 00:55:53 So I think it's okay to take a win. I, okay. Yeah. All right. Yeah. I was trying to go for, yeah. I hope this one happens. This is out of this list. This is what I hope happens. I think in 2025 Proton 10 is going to be released. Valve will tout better compatibility than ever, and it'll be out before the end of 2025. Does that do a book?

Starting point is 00:56:14 Unlock that in? Sounds good to me. In 2025, Valve will release Proton 10.0. They will tout brand new types of compatibility with Windows games, and it will be released before the end of 2025. Okay. I had a couple of other extra ones that I just wanted before we get to the refs, and

Starting point is 00:56:35 I don't want to step on any of yours, but I wondered if you guys as a group expect that we'll see another XZ-like back door announced this year. Do you think that's probable? Could happen. I think it's gonna happen. I don't want it to, but. I think there's gonna be a possibility, but I don't think it's gonna happen to that level.

Starting point is 00:56:52 I think people are already checking stuff. So I don't think it's gonna be as severe as that could have been. I would say probably within the next three to five years, you would get closer to like 100%. Oh yeah. About one year. Three to five years, I would, yeah, 100%.

Starting point is 00:57:06 Yeah, I agree, okay. All right, then here's the other one that I thought was a little dark, but I think it's something we should acknowledge. Over the last few years, specifically around PipeWire and video support in PipeWire and the Bluetooth stack and in real time. We have seen a lot of contributions made by Red Hat

Starting point is 00:57:28 because they are working with major car vendors for automotive Linux. And so some of the more interesting things that have happened, even in Wayland, not all of them, but some of them, are because Red Hat has car vendors that are using Linux to drive the infotainment systems. And they needed better audio and video handling. They needed better routing of all that.

Starting point is 00:57:49 They needed an API to write to. And they had to solve some of these solutions. And we have all immensely benefited from that work in just the last few years. However, 2025 is shaping up to be a very bad year for the major automakers. And I could see a slowdown in projects driven by these vendors and thus a slowdown in automotive Linux. And I just wonder what you guys think about that as a potential impact vector for innovation

Starting point is 00:58:21 on the Linux desktop. And Wes, I know you and I personally saw some of the impact of automotive Linux, and we've talked about this off air quite a bit. And if you just look at like, you know, Honda and Nissan are talking about potentially merging and you've got a lot of vendors in bad shape. I was reading too that like CES,

Starting point is 00:58:41 some of the previews are like, they're gonna announce these like kind of demo prototype infotainment systems, like Honda is gonna be one of the vendors at CES that some of the previews are like, they're going to announce these like kind of demo prototype infotainment systems. Like Honda is going to be one of the vendors at CES that's happening this week. And they're going to announce these infotainment systems that are very likely Linux based. But the reality is they're like two or three years from being finished and they're not sure if they actually have the funding to get it across the finish line. And what are your thoughts? Yeah, I mean, I think I'm glad that P wire is as far along as it is already, you know

Starting point is 00:59:06 I mean, it's not perfect. There's lots of stuff Maybe especially on like the video side where we would like improvements But it's proven to be pretty remarkable and I do think to your point that maybe there will be a you know A slowdown but it seems like even across brands at this point Linux is getting to barely entrenched in one way or another in some of these Devices, so I doubt it'll be a total waste Linux is getting to be fairly entrenched in one way or another in some of these devices. So I doubt it'll be a total waste. That's my hope. Yeah, maybe. And maybe the momentum's there now. Some of these things can too.

Starting point is 00:59:33 So maybe it's just like a hunker down here. I'm surprised that Bummer Chris was not met by Bummer Wes on this particular conversation. Yeah, that's nice. It's a good balance. I don't know if either of you gentlemen have thoughts on automotive Linux. It just feels like it's kind of been the low-key One of the nice impacts on the desktop. Yeah, and I don't know when the car manufacturers have problems I kind of worry about that. I think it's a massive It's an interesting conversation that you're bringing up because it's a massive benefit to the Linux ecosystem overall from just the pipe wire alone is a huge plus on

Starting point is 01:00:08 just the pipe wire alone is a huge plus on multiple factors, video, audio, just even multimedia in general, being able to pipe all that stuff in a way that doesn't require you to be an engineer is a wonderful thing. But I think that there's another way of looking at it and that these are more so valuable than not just infotainment because the infotainment stuff is very limiting in its value and I think that it's more or less going to transition if it does slow down in the infotainment part it's going to transition to more of like an EV driving the whole thing type of situation where automotive Linux becomes like the main brain behind like these new EV vehicles from various companies. I'd feel a little bit better if it was.

Starting point is 01:00:49 I have some like counter news that we saw recently, maybe that might give some hope. So I remember back in November, we saw a little bit of news suggesting that automotive grade of Grade Linux launched a new expert group that was led by Toyota that basically touted open source to executives like Volvo, Honda, Panasonic, Bosch. They all participated in like a panel discussion about this. So I think there's a little bit of push forward. Good. I hope so. I'm not making an official prediction, but it's one of my things to watch. It's a trend, I think, to watch for 2025. Okay, Raph, you got a couple of predictions for 2025? I do have quite a few, actually.

Starting point is 01:01:33 I have seven. We could probably not do all of them. Oh, please. He came prepared a little bit. So a couple of them I came up with while we were having conversations, but the first one is that the Cosmic Desktop will ship a stable release.

Starting point is 01:01:49 1.0, whatever. They may not call it 1.0. That's why I'm not specifying 1.0. But it will be like a stable, we're ready to use it, not just an alpha or a beta sometime this year. All right. So something beyond beta, huh? Yes.

Starting point is 01:02:04 Like an RC? I expect it to happen for sure and RC I would say an RC could count because you could technically use it in production at that point Okay, you should probably but you probably you maybe could so how do you how do you make that specific in your prediction like it's a It's a like I'll just say at least an RC. Yeah, okay. Yeah, I think that would work. Yeah, all right That's on the path of stability seems pretty easy to check too Now I'm now I'm questioning myself, I think you should log it in we'll just call up Carl and the team and Can you punt that release? Just make it January 2nd of

Starting point is 01:02:40 I Predict at the cosmic desktop from system 76 will make at least a release candidate version available in 2025. I think you're right. I think they've got good momentum. And like you said, they could they could also do multiple RCs. You know, you could have you could have exactly no, I feel like they are definitely going to get past the alpha easily there.

Starting point is 01:03:04 And I think they're definitely gonna get past the Beta by the end of the year. And I'm being hopeful in saying that the RCs will come in the summer. That's my hopefulness. My actual prediction is that at some point this year. Sort of like a long engagement thing. So there'll be RC for the next three years. But the prediction will hit. I feel like the reason is because the System 76 people talked about having it to be in tandem with Papa West and Papa West at this point has it feels very old it's like the stable version is very old and they just want to get it as fast as possible so they're just going to drive as you know aggressively. I think it's

Starting point is 01:03:40 a good bet actually yeah all right give us another one. OK, so I kind of want to be cheap on this one and say that do the 5% one again. Because I feel like that at this point, it probably will happen. Yeah, I was thinking about doing that too. Yeah, it seems like it's a good one. So just an easy 5% Linux market desktop share. Yes. All right, lock it in.

Starting point is 01:04:02 I predict that the Linux desktop market share will become 5% some point this year. All right, let's hope so. I hope so. I'm so curious how we're going to measure this because you said desktop specifically. And does this... Well, I mean, that's because everything, like Linux is already dominant in everything else. So it's like the only thing that... Stat counter is basically how everybody uses

Starting point is 01:04:25 Yeah, stat counter right now puts desktop Linux at four point one three percent So it fluctuates so it could go up it was four point zero three in November, so it went up again Chrome OS at one point nine percent sneaky almost two percent there for Chrome OS Yeah, and also I'm not gonna we we don't need to change the prediction, but I'm gonna just go on record in saying I do not count Chrome OS as a part of that prediction. All right, fair. Okay, you got a third one for us?

Starting point is 01:04:52 All right, now I have to decide which one I wanna do because I have a bunch of them. Yeah. And can we just give like a, like which one do y'all think is like the, I don't wanna be like, I already have one that I, the 5% I'm pretty confident. Oh, I hope so. So that one's actually no one that I the 5% I'm pretty confident. I hope so so

Starting point is 01:05:06 That was actually no because I think that these in the next so this one I'm gonna tell you what it was but it's not gonna count because I feel like it's it's too close to the 5% that the end of Windows 10 will result in a massive benefit to Linux and Linux will finally be ready for that opportunity. Oh, I hope so Yeah, that's that was my prediction. But I feel like that's also going to be going in with the 5%. Yeah, if that's true, then the 5% is probably going to be true. Yeah.

Starting point is 01:05:33 The other one is SteamOS will be on more devices that are not owned by Valve. Ooh, I think that's a good bet. But also still not general usage. They're already on one other device, right? I don't think it's a good bet. Yeah, but also still not general usage. They're already on one other device, right? I don't think it's on anything else. Is it? Oh really?

Starting point is 01:05:50 I thought I heard something, but I'm not sure if it's that. I think there might be, because there's predictions because of the branding guidelines change. So there are predictions that it's happening. Yeah, I noticed that. I'm thinking that's a good bet, I think. Yeah, that might be too cheap.

Starting point is 01:06:03 Or it's easy money, I don't don't know either one if there's money involved Is there are we changing the rules yeah, let's do that This one I think it probably will be my my wreck my prediction is that KDE Linux will release this year oh Dang it. Oh, yeah, but it's uh yeah, what if it's called Banana Linux, then are you wrong? Okay, a Linux distro from KDE, despite its name. Dang it, I wish I would have thought of that one. That's a good one. You know, I thought of that one this morning

Starting point is 01:06:36 and I just thought, yeah, that's definitely gonna happen. That's not a prediction, but. Well, it also, it's depending on like what, because they're saying that it's gonna happen, they don't saying when. Well, and making a distribution, or making it in a way. It should take a while. It's harder than like what because they're saying that it's gonna happen. They don't saying when well and making a distribution Or maybe you know I should take a while. It's harder than I think people assume So, you know you could say one thing and it doesn't happen, you know

Starting point is 01:06:52 And it would any release count like a beta like a early build like with any release at all count in this I'm gonna go with the General usage general testing so So like not an alpha necessarily if it's not intended to be used. And if it's just testing, if it's intended to, like a beta could be played with and it not necessarily like guarantee for problems.

Starting point is 01:07:17 Cause a beta is like, I think there's gonna be problems and alpha is like, you're definitely gonna have a problem. So I feel like I would say more of a beta is the baseline. Yeah. Okay. I think we should have that one on the record. I think that's a good one. So I said, lock that in. I predict that in 2025, KDE will release a specific desktop

Starting point is 01:07:40 operating system of their own, regardless of what it's named, KDE Linux or not, and it will be at least at a beta release level. That's going to be really interesting to watch. I hope that happens. And of course, the other side is GNOME OS as well may have theirs. I hope they don't do it. No, because of that, I think that KDE has reasons to do it and Gnome really doesn't have a reason to do it. They got Fedora. Yeah, they already have Fedora. I mean, they have Red Hat, Fedora, Ubuntu, like everything basically is Gnome by default.

Starting point is 01:08:14 Even SUSE is known by default. So I don't think they even need it. I tend to agree. And I'd be interested to see where it goes. You know, I'm running Neon on this machine here and it's starting to kind of get a little rickety on the updates. I'm having a hard time getting it over to 2410. After a while, Neon shows some cruft.

Starting point is 01:08:30 Yeah. Yep. It's pretty cool. It's pretty cool thing to be able to run, but at the same time, it does get in the way sometimes. I have two more that are like potentials. I think I installed, I think I installed this Neon machine in 1804 and the fact that it's finally giving me a guff at 2410 is not too bad. OK, yeah, give us a couple more potentials, then we'll wrap up. One of my other ones would be that a major distribution

Starting point is 01:08:50 would implement a main edition, not necessarily, not like a derivative, but an actual flavor-specific main edition as an immutable version. Oh, I had that on my potential list. Yeah, or it could even be, mine I was going to say, even a server OS. Oh, yeah. Oh, yeah, that'd be good. I could see or it could even be I in mine. I was gonna say even a server OS Oh, yeah, I can see it. I could see it happening for a server OS. That's a good one All right

Starting point is 01:09:10 What was your other one that the games on Linux whether it's steam or otherwise would reach? 25,000 supported games. What are we at now? Mm-hmm team. Oh That's pretty good Hmm Yeah, you'd still that's quite a bit of games, but I could see it happening Especially with proton 10.0 coming out It's too likely if I put it to the 50,000 that would be much harder to get to yeah. Oh Those are good. I think though. I feel like the KD Linux's the best just because that I feel like I should have thought of that.

Starting point is 01:09:45 Be interesting to see how these turn out. Of course, if you're listening, boost in or go to linuxownplug.com slash contact and send us your predictions for 2025. We are pre-recording next week's episode, so we will then probably be catching those in episode 598. So we'll still be talking this will be in January though. So we'll still be talking, this will be in January though. So we'll still be talking predictions. And I'd love to hear if you have any out there that we missed. We'll get them on the record. Well, we have no boost this week because we are pre-recording, but we will have all of them next week.

Starting point is 01:10:19 And we'll make sure to run down all of them for you. But I do have a killer pick for you. If privacy is your bag. This is a minimalistic web application designed for sending end to end encrypted notes and files via the web. It's called enclosed and it uses all of the goods for encrypting. It supports file attachments. It uses zero knowledge on the server side, so the server isn't keeping any metadata or records. Very, very nice configuration options, but it has just slick defaults. It supports optional authentication with different modes

Starting point is 01:10:55 if you wanna do that, or it can just be password protected. Notes, of course, it is self-hostable as well. And it's clean, Wes. I don't know if you've seen any of the screenshots yet. Yeah, it's very clean. Nice, right? It's simple, it's easy to get started,

Starting point is 01:11:10 it's Apache licensed, they've got a donker compose, if that's how you roll, and it is 12 lines. It's a really simple one, really, really simple. So you could try it, and if you get one running and you wanna send it into the show I'd like to look at it, but I was playing around with my machine at home, and I liked it a lot It's called enclosed. It's just a little web app and it allows you to send encrypted private secure notes I like that it spits out a QR code too. Yeah nice for minimal like phone capture

Starting point is 01:11:41 Go things like that, and you just type in the password there and sometimes you really do have a need to just Be able to quickly exchange things, you know Maybe you haven't already on boarded some other and ending platform yet and where you just have a one-off I that's what I was thinking is Like we have a paste bin that we use that is public But this could be an alternative to that where it's still a public URL that anybody can reach It's a one-off and you use your password or whatever authentication mechanism you want to use.

Starting point is 01:12:09 Enclosed. And it's like 10 seconds to get running, which is really, really handy. So we'll find a link to that in the show notes over at linuxownplug.com slash 596. Well, Michael, thank you for playing Ref once again this year. Where should we send folks to find you? You can just go to tuxdigital.com and you can find all my stuff there. And I will be doing live streams of This Week in Linux for the foreseeable future. So I'll be live in 25.

Starting point is 01:12:39 Oh, I like that. Great. Coming in hot with the slogan, live in 25. So thisweekinlinux.com as well. There you go. Thisweekinlinux.com and streaming on YouTube, too. You can search for This Week in Linux on the tubes. Thank you, sir.

Starting point is 01:12:57 Thanks for having me. It's always fun to be the ref and also now apparently the coach, too. I think there is some definitely coach needs, so we appreciate it. Stepping up. We will not be live next week So I am off. It is the anniversary with the wife skis. This is a big month I got the daughter's birthday this month, the middle daughter. I've got the anniversary with the wife We're coming up on ten years. Six years of being married

Starting point is 01:13:23 But yeah, ten years being together. And then it's my birthday at the end of the month too. So it's like January is a busy, busy, busy month for the Fisher household. So we will not be live on the 12th. But then we're back into the flow of things. We already have something pre-recorded for you. So don't worry. While we won't be live on the same bat channel.

Starting point is 01:13:41 See you next week. Same bat time. Same bad spot. No, you got it wrong, but he doesn't know. I think he's from like 1960. How would he know? But just check out jupiterbroadcasting.com slash calendar and you'll get all straight. Don't forget we'd love to hear your predictions for 2025 and your take on the tuxes. Should we keep it going or let it be done? Boost in and let us know. Thanks so much for tuning this week's episode of the Unplugged program. It's nice to be back. We have a big 2025 ahead of us with some big Linux events just around the corner. There's so much coming up on the show this year. So thank you so much for listening. We'll see you right back as in Sunday. Thank you. you

LINUX Unplugged - 596: Perilously Pontificated Predictions

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