Locked On ACC - Daily College Football & Basketball Podcast - ACC SQUAD - ACC's Biggest RISERS & FALLERS for 2026

Episode Date: February 12, 2026

ACC football contenders face massive shake-ups after Cinderella runs from Virginia and Duke. With Darian Mensah’s dramatic transfer to Miami, Duke’s outlook has plummeted, while Virginia confronts... a potential free fall amid major roster and coaching losses. Can Georgia Tech or Louisville buck the trend, or will chaos reign in a league where over half the teams could finish 6-6 or 7-5? The hosts debate the toughest drop-offs and pinpoint the programs primed for surprise runs, with Miami, SMU, and Cal earning buzz.Basketball takes center stage as ACC bubble teams jockey for NCAA Tournament spots. Can Miami turn close losses into a big dance ticket, or will NC State’s inconsistency sink their chances? Bracketology projections, star quarterback impacts, and coaching changes fuel a heated roundtable on which schools will rise or falter in a season defined by unpredictability. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

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Starting point is 00:00:00 We had a couple Cinderella playing for the ACC championship and football last season with Virginia and Duke. But who's going to take the biggest drop off in 2026? Let's bring in the squad. You're talking ball with the ACC squad. From Florida State to North Carolina, from Syracuse to Miami, and from NC State to California, it's the local experts of the locked on podcast network, bringing you scoops, breakdowns, and the most comprehensive preview of the upcoming ACC. weekend. Hang on. It could get loud. It could get heated and it will definitely be fun.
Starting point is 00:00:36 Squad up. You're part of the ACCC squad. Shout out to the everydayers and welcome into the ACC squad. Thank you for making us your first listen. I am Alex Dono from Locked on Caines. We got Jackson Holeser from Locked on Syracuse, Brian Smith from Locked on Seminoles and the Portal and Kenton Gibbs from Lockdown Wolfpack. This episode is proudly brought to you by five. hour energy. Have your cake and drink it too. Birthday cake flavor is back. No fork needed. Vanillae cake flavor, caffeinated kick and no sugar. It's party time. Order now at five hour energy.com or on Amazon. On this loaded episode, we'll talk about the ACC picture for the March Maddice for the college
Starting point is 00:01:19 basketball playoff coming up. Spoiler alert, it looks like Bracketology has us down to seven getting in, but we have some time to improve that narrative. We'll talk about the 2027 starting quarterbacks in the ACC, because there's a few on this list that had Kent and Gibbs and I stumped earlier this week. But how about who's going to have the biggest drop off this season? Jackson Holzer, I'll let you buy the first round. The ACC was obviously wide open in football this past year with Virginia, who wasn't bowl eligible the year before having a magical double-digit win season, getting all the way to the championship game. And the team that won the ACC championship game lost three out of their four non-conference games and didn't get into the
Starting point is 00:02:03 CFB. Is it Duke? Is it Virginia? Or is it someone else who has the biggest drop-off this year? So I think that the ACC, once again, is going to be pretty wide open. I think there's one team that we can agree is pretty much, I don't know if it's a lot, but they're going to be very good. And that's the Miami Hurricanes, but they have still yet to win the ACC title. It's just a weird thing. but as far as a drop off is concerned, how about Duke? Because they don't have Darien Mensa anymore. He was pretty good when he was there. He was pretty much their entire team last year.
Starting point is 00:02:37 He's the only real reason why they won the ACC last year. And on the very last day of the portal, he enters the portal and there was that whole legal battle and everything, but now he's with the Miami Hurricanes. And so because in the way he left at the very last second, Duke didn't really have much of a plan beyond. him. They just assumed that Derry Mentsa was under contract and he was going to come back. So now they don't have what is probably the favorite to win ACC player of the year next year on their team,
Starting point is 00:03:07 who plays the most important position, who was their biggest reason why they won the ACC last year. So I look at Duke and I say they went from a team who for 2026 with Derry Mensa, yeah, they can compete for an ACC title because they have him. Now they'll be lucky to make a bowl. I wholeheartedly agree with Jackson while also wholeheartedly disagreeing with Jackson, but what's new? I agree with Jackson on the fact that the ACC is in fact wide open. If you think back to last year, we had out in, let's not do revision of history here. Do you feel better about Miami going into next year or Clemson going into this year? Which squad did each and every person with a pulse in the brain feel better about?
Starting point is 00:03:53 Clemson last year. Yeah. Everybody thought Clemson's returning a head coach that's a national champion, multiple-time ACC championship winner. You're returning a Heisman favorite at quarterback. You're returning multiple top 10 guys on your defense. You're returning Sammy Brown, who was prolific in this freshman year. You've got a Terrell brother at corner. All of these things are going your way. And the ACC was wide open. So I do agree that we have a worse Miami team than that on paper, at least, coming in. but we realized what that Clemson team was when they had to put them on the field, you know.
Starting point is 00:04:30 So the ACC is absolutely wide open. But the thing that I would disagree with Jackson on is I don't think that Duke has that far to fall with all due respect. Yes, they were the conference champion. There were a seven-win conference champion with losses to Tulane and an absolute drubbing at home to Illinois. If you got drugs at-UCon. Oh, yeah, they did. They did. That's my point exactly. They ended up finishing nine and five because of the agency title and getting the bowl.
Starting point is 00:05:01 So I'm seeing nine wins on their resume, even if there were seven win regular season team. Right. But that's what I'm saying. I'm not going to count the ACC championship and the bowl game is like this elevates your season to a whole other level. In my opinion, because, well, I'll give the ACC championship bowl game a little bit less. But I think they don't have that far to fall. Virginia, however, has a very long way to tumble. I mean, that team, they have quite some way to tumble. And I'm much lower on Perbula than everybody else. I am much, much lower on him than everybody else. Everybody's like, oh, Boer Brulie, he was a baller, you know.
Starting point is 00:05:37 He was the guy for Mazoo. Coach Drinkwitz makes everybody look like a professional quarterback. I mean, Smitty, if you got some eligibility left, you need to call up our boy and see because he might get you a contract in the NFL. That's how highly I think of Coach Drink. But I'm not sold on him. The defense had liabilities last year. Start running back going as well.
Starting point is 00:05:59 Top two receivers going as well. I am deeply concerned that that team is set up to go from double-digit regular seasons to barely. And when I say barely, I mean just barely bowl eligible. I was going to say Virginia as well. That's not a good situation. Chengel Morris was a graduate student at quarterback that knew everything about the offense. Like Mince is a great player. he's more flashy, but Virginia doesn't get kids that are going to be great
Starting point is 00:06:29 quarterbacks year-in, year-out. I don't even know who their quarterback's going to be. And Kenton already talked about it. Both receivers gone. Is the defense great? No. So, Manny Diaz at Duke, I think he can piece together a better defense would be my guess, but I think Virginia will be even lower down the rung than what a lot of people think.
Starting point is 00:06:50 They'll have the biggest fall. Duke and then might both be 500 teams like this league is going to, there could be over half the week that's six and six and seven and five i got another georgia tech that's another one that could fall down like i i just that was going to be mine actually oh i'm sorry don't know why don't you explain georgia tech explain georgia tech it's your team oh georgia tech i mean they lose buster falkner their offensive coordinator goes to florida they lose their projected starting quarterback erin philo i i know they brought in mendoza but it's Alberto Mendoza, not Fernando Mendoza, to be their next starting quarterback.
Starting point is 00:07:25 Like, they lost so many pieces to the portal and from their coaching staff, because Faulkner took a lot of pieces with him there on the staff and through the portal, that, yeah, it's hard for me to imagine. And Georgia Tech, we forget, like, they ended up falling short of the ACC championship game. But when the calendar turned to November last year, it looked like they were a shoe-in to be the ACC champions at a certain point. They had a fall at the end of the year. I think the fall is going to start earlier this coming season. And I think the counter with some people would be that Brent Key is a really good coach.
Starting point is 00:07:58 And I do think that he is a good coach. However, it's not like Brent Key has some long history of, you know, stacking 9, 10, 11 win seasons to where, you know, we just can't doubt him even when he lose coordinators or you lose quarterbacks. I mean, since he's taken over, they're basically a 500 team every year in the regular season, except for last year. and, of course, at the end of the year, they fall off the cliff at the very, very end. So I look at Georgia Tech and I say, yeah, they had a very good year last year, but it really looked like that was their chance. That was their chance to have a special type season where they could maybe go to the college football playoff.
Starting point is 00:08:34 And now it's, okay, well, they'll probably be decent, but they're going to go back to being about a six, seven win team in the league again. I mean, that was key. This is key's first ever head coaching job. You're going to go through some of these. moments where when you think back to what Key took over, that was not a Georgia Tech team that was middling before he got. That team was atrocious.
Starting point is 00:08:58 That team was God awful. It was so bad. It was like, oh, yeah, if you see Georgia Tech on your schedule, go ahead and check a win unless you're at FCS school. So I do think that Key has earned the benefit of the doubt in that he has objectively propelled some of those coordinators and whatnot in two other jobs. But with that being said, I do, I am worried about the, the worst case scenario of the Smitty game where we're looking at half the lead that's six wins, seven wins maybe. That's, that's tough. That's tough.
Starting point is 00:09:32 It's really fun because we're going to go in every Saturday. We're going to be like, who's winning? I have no clue. So have two teams. You have no idea who's going to win on a weekly basis. So enough of who's going to have the biggest drop. Oh, go ahead. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:09:46 Miami and SM you are the only two that I feel good about. in the whole league. Yeah. Well, for NC State, chaos is a ladder. Come on, C.J. Bailey, NC State and Miami North is going to get it done this year. I feel good about Louisville, but I know that Louisville's ceiling is capped. That's just Louisville.
Starting point is 00:10:06 Louisville's like, all right, they're going to win eight games. That's it. But they got to ACC Championship. They got to ACC championship the snub year for Florida State. They got there. Unfortunately, a man by the name of Jack Clinton. was their quarterback. Yeah.
Starting point is 00:10:21 So, you know, it just kind of works out that way. They just have some sort of ceiling that they just need to somehow break through it. Until they break through it, I'm not going to believe they're breaking through it. Yeah. And like a lot of other teams, they're going to be doing it with a new starting quarterback. There are at least 12 new starting quarterbacks out of 17 for the ACC next year. But I want to talk about the five returning. And I guess like you can kind of say Darien Mensa because he's still in the ACC,
Starting point is 00:10:48 team, he's with a very different team. So maybe you say six if you want to be loose with it. And also, we talked about which teams are going to have a drop off. What about the biggest riser? You want to keep it locked right here. We're only getting started on this brand new episode of the squad. I'm Kahlia Butler, host of Locked-on Women's Basketball. And this is Mazda's Women's Basketball Snapshot, celebrating the work no highlight reel can ever capture. Don Staley and South Carolina remain on top of the SEC standings after handing Tennessee, their worst defeat in program history with a final score of 93 to 40. In the 43 point win, South Carolina shot 69% from the field.
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Starting point is 00:12:23 Thank you so much for making the ACC squad your first listen. By the way, if you consider yourself an everydayer, you're with us every single day on the Lockdown Network, you want to make your status official by joining the Every Dayer Club. You can find the link in the show notes below or go to Lockdownpodcast.com, become an official everydayer of Locked on Syracuse, Locked on Wolfpack, Locked on Seminoles, locked on Cains, locked on ACC. You get exclusive ad-free versions of our... episodes, Discord, chat, access, so many other great perks, becoming every day or today with the
Starting point is 00:13:00 Lockdown Podcast Network. All right, so guys, and Brian, I'll let you buy the first round on this one. In terms of a team that could be a big riser this year, you know, for me, it's the answer everybody's giving because you look at a team that went two and six in the conference last year, underperformed, I think, based on their talent level, got their head coach fired, made a big splash, with James Franklin. To me, the only direction that Virginia Tech can go in after two and six in ACC play last year is up. So while I'm not expecting the Hokies to necessarily contend for an ACC championship, I think they're going to be bowl eligible.
Starting point is 00:13:39 I think they're going to probably improve somewhere between four to six wins this upcoming season. And I think James Franklin is going to make a bit of an immediate impact, especially with a new starting quarterback he brought with him, Gruncombeyer from Penn State. I think Virginia Tech is going to improve more than, let's say, the Boston colleges, and sorry, Jackson, a little bit more than Syracuse this year. I think Virginia Tech is going to have a bounce. Well, it would be very difficult to go any lower than what Syracuse did this last year. But at the same time, I'm going to go with Cal because of JKS, new coaching staff, and they brought over some DeLyman from Oregon.
Starting point is 00:14:20 Those kind of de linemen don't usually hang out in the ACC and Western and DeathVowel. Tallahassee or Coral Gables. They're going to get a few of those guys and a few others. And nobody really takes Cal seriously. I think they'll get kind of a pass. Everybody will have eyes on Franklin at Virginia Tech. Ruckmeyer's a good player, but they still have a lot to prove. But that's another good pick.
Starting point is 00:14:41 I still think that those two teams, like most of the others we talked about, probably in that five to seven win range. I know Jackson's team's hoping to make it to five wins, but they're just, you know, that's probably not going to happen. But there's still a lot to look at in terms of these quarterback. These guys are like, how do we know? Like, J.K.S. is proven. Okay.
Starting point is 00:15:02 Gruncombeyer's least a little bit proven. That's okay. I trust Brahm to figure out quarterback. But like B.C., Virginia, Duke, North Carolina. Like, there's so many that are very difficult. There's only a couple to really pick from. I think Cal and Virginia Tech are the obvious ones to kind of go up. Beyond that, how many do you feel like?
Starting point is 00:15:21 feel good in Stanford? I don't. NC State's got Bailey and I got another year. They got some guys, if you want to say they win one or two more than last year, that's fine. But there just aren't very many options. And I'm going to go Cal. To Brian's point about the lack of options here, even with Brian's pick, which is a good
Starting point is 00:15:39 one with Cal, Cal last year went four and four in the league and seven and six overall. So how much better are they going to be this upcoming season? I'm going to say two wins more possibly. Right. So that's good. But again, like, we're talking about like biggest risers here, like two more wins than your previous years win total. I look at it and I say is that much of a big rise at the same time. I can't really argue that much unless I'm going to just sit here and go with the default of Virginia Tech because they hire James Franklin.
Starting point is 00:16:07 The league is very, very unpredictable this year. Yeah, you know, the question of biggest risers is tough because when you look at all the teams, if you look at the bottom half of the conference, right, who do you actually actually? feel comfortable saying like, oh, I know for a fact they're not going to be here again. A Clemson team that just lost a ton of talent that I don't think they replaced. A Louisville team that, I mean, we know that a lot of the same issues that existed last year where you're talking about, I'm not sure about your quarterback. I'm not sure about this thing and that thing in the wide receiving court, the past
Starting point is 00:16:42 got your score. Not as good as it was last year. What do you say? Wake Forest was a surprisingly good team. They were a riser from last year. That do you expect that team to get to eight wins again? Doubt it, right? Nobody's really expected.
Starting point is 00:16:56 Wake had a soft non-conference schedule. That's how they stacked all those wins. They were mediocre in the league, but they had a really easy non-con schedule. And so their record is inflated. They were not actually that great of a team last year. I agree, but I'm just saying, well, if you're looking for risers, beyond that, we got Stanford, FSU, UNC, Virginia Tech, Boston College in Syracuse.
Starting point is 00:17:21 If you're looking for risers, you kind of are stuck in that group of teams that went four and four in conference. And you're saying like, all right, who actually has the potential to do something out of this? I'm going to be a little controversial here. I feel great about SMU. I think that despite them having nine wins last year,
Starting point is 00:17:39 I think they rise two wins or so this year. I think that that is a team that I'm believing SMU and company are going to the playoffs. here. I think they'll get in. You guys an at-large bid or the conference champion for the ACC. I think the world of Kevin Jennings. I really do. And last year, even though the record was worse, if you watch the film, he was better than year one. He was so much better. Year one, he was a guy to play too much hero ball, too much indecisiveness. And early in the season, he had those same problems. There were multiple plays against Baylor where I'm like, hey, brother,
Starting point is 00:18:13 get rid of the ball. What are we doing here? Throw it away. But towards the end of the season, he got better and better and better. And if his defense could have held up for quite literally 30 seconds against Cal, give him 30 damn seconds at the end of the game. And we could be talking about a potentially totally different outlook in terms of what jobs Red Lashley got offered, in terms of where that team ended the season, in terms of who was the ACC championship, all those things.
Starting point is 00:18:43 So ultimately, I think that I feel good about saying SMU is going to have probably to maybe more, more wins than they did last year. I don't think that's controversial to say that they're a playoff team at all. I mean, if the ACC next year is going to be a two-bid league, and if you give one of those spots to Miami, who would the second team be? It's probably SMU. I mean, they're going to enter the season with the second best odds to win the ACC next year. I'll back you on it.
Starting point is 00:19:13 I mean, I don't know if I'm going to sit here and predict or going to the college football playoff, but out of the ACC, they're the second most likely to go to the college football playoff. Yeah, again, I got that team as a riser for sure. Yeah. Yeah, and a big part of that is Kevin Jennings, like Kenton was talking about. And so, yeah, out of the five returning starting quarterbacks in the ACC, you know, Jennings, because it seems like he's on a team that Jackson mentioned, like, can maybe compete with Miami. They just beat Miami last year. So who knows, who knows what can happen if they meet in the ACC championship game. So you got Jennings back with SMU, C.J. Bailey, back with NC State. J.K.S., back at Cal is a big one. I think Cal's going to be
Starting point is 00:19:53 better, like Brian mentioned, than they were last year. Mason Heinzel back with Pittsburgh after a really fine true freshman season. And I'm assuming Steve Angelli is on track, you know, to recover from the Achilles, Jackson. He's going to be back for Syracuse as a presumed starter. Like, I mean, out of those five, Jackson, like, how are you feeling about that group? Because I think, overall, it's actually a pretty good group of returning starters in the ACC. No, it's definitely a good group. Did you mention Darien Mensa as well? Well, I mean, does he
Starting point is 00:20:24 count? Because he's still in the ACC. Okay. I would ask, he's in the ACC and also, he's a, I know Miami fans might not want to hear. Actually, maybe they do want to hear this. It's better than Carson Beck. Oh, yeah, all right. He's better than Carson Beck. Like,
Starting point is 00:20:39 so we could sit here and call him a returner or not. He's better than what they had last year. So I feel good about it. I mean, I think that at the end of the day, if you want to look in that group of returning quarterbacks, I think two of those teams that are probably going to represent the ACC next year are going to have returning quarterbacks because I think it's going to be Miami and SMU.
Starting point is 00:21:00 Ketton, give me a ruling. Does Darien Mentson count as a returning starter? You know, the referees looked at it. We checked the back line. We will allow it. He was a starter in the conference last year. As much as we don't like it, as much as he is, isn't a new system. He is a returner to the ACC. However,
Starting point is 00:21:18 however, upon further review, we don't want to include him in the conversation of full returners because it is still a new offensive system to him. He's a really good player. Miami has had unprecedented success because no other team virtually in the nation has had as many consecutive hits at the quarterback position for one-year rentals and yet they continue to do it. So he is a returner to the ACC. But for the of our conversation. He's ruled out. Sorry, that's what the official thing.
Starting point is 00:21:47 Let me say this. The biggest thing that I've learned, and I've been doing a lot of shows with Kenton the last two years or so on Locked on ACC, the biggest lesson I've learned is not to listen to Kenton when he talks about how hard it is to break in a new starting quarterback because he tried to tell me before 20, 24, he was like, yeah, listen, Cam Ward's really good, but he might have a slow start, you know, new off. It took him three seconds. Carson Beck didn't even play in the spring, and he shows up in Miami, 13 games. So I no longer listen to Kenton when he warns me about new quarterbacks. He was struck with the Grayson McCall syndrome. Okay. Now hear me out. Hear me out. Hear me out,
Starting point is 00:22:23 right? You got, this is why I said Miami has had unprecedented success. Who else has gotten a bunch of first year quarterbacks and all of them have been hits? Kyle McCord, Angelie, until he got hurt. And Jelly was leading the nation in passing before he got hurt. Ohio State, they won their championship two years ago with Howard, a transfer starting quarterback. Again, if there's more hits than misses. There's absolutely more misses. What are we talking about here? You got to admit like DJ.
Starting point is 00:22:53 Notre Dame has been the exact opposite of what Miami has done. Hartman was not good. Riley Leonard was awful. You look at what we had with McCall. They got to the championship game with Riley Leonard. Are you sick? What do you? They got to the championship in spite of him, not because of him.
Starting point is 00:23:11 or with him. He was there. He was good enough to get there. Oh, my God. What do you think, Brian? Riley Leonard, yeah, or nay. He clearly did something. I don't think he's great, but he's in the national football.
Starting point is 00:23:23 He did something right. He was a tremendous leader and he was really good in third downs. He was really good in third down. He was the best running quarterback in the country. Okay. Ultimately, ultimately, if we look around again at the larger data sample. I should have mentioned Fernando freaking Mendoza.
Starting point is 00:23:40 That was a one-year training. transfer. Oh, my God. I think Kenton's going to leave ACC squad after this. Again, we are looking at the exceptions as if they are the rule. Overwhelmingly, these first year quarterbacks have stunk it up at a high level. Dary and Minson. Okay.
Starting point is 00:24:02 Chandler Morris at UVA. So, okay. So we're, all right, here's the thing. This is getting really funny here. Here's getting ugly. Here's the thing. Y'all are absolutely right in that there have been. But again, the rule by and large is they do not have success.
Starting point is 00:24:17 Yes, you could say, oh, Grayson McCall was an outlaw. For every name you could name, I can name another, which is not in this conference, but I can name another that transferred somewhere and objectively was like, what's going on? And granted, with a higher volume of transfers that we've ever seen, there will be more examples of people being successful, but there will also be a lot more of the failures. The failures are the overwhelming majority right now.
Starting point is 00:24:41 That's just what we're looking at. Even if we look at players who stay places multiple years, their second and third year in that new place, they're oftentimes much better than they were in year one. So why are we pretending like I'm talking crazy here? When again, that is the outlier. That is just objectively the outline. Dylan Gabriel is another one.
Starting point is 00:25:01 Oh, my God. Bo Nix was pretty good. He transferred a bunch of times. Bo Nicks transferred multiple times. Bo Nix not better. I think. Hello? You're going to tell me,
Starting point is 00:25:11 Shuck is in that group as well, despite the fact that he stunked up at multiple schools that he transferred to? Like, what are we doing here? Jordan Travis was a transfer. Jordan Travis was there for multiple years. Compare his year one to year three. One wasn't very good, actually. Thank you. He's right.
Starting point is 00:25:27 He's right. Thank you. He wasn't great. His year two is where he popped. Exactly. That is always how it would not always. That is a majority of times how it works. Again, Miami had unprecedented success.
Starting point is 00:25:38 Chandler Morris was great this year. Even if you look at Duke and Derry and Menta early in the season, as much as people want to deny this, Dary and Mintsa was a large part of reason they were not in some of those football games because he was a turnover machine. He figured it out towards the end of the season, but objectively speaking, he played them out of multiple games early in the season.
Starting point is 00:25:59 So what are we doing here pretending like, oh, yeah, transfer quarterbacks, that's your path to success. I think we brought the receipts. I just made if the guy's good enough, the guy's good enough. Yeah, probably won't matter.
Starting point is 00:26:10 In theory, yes. But you know what adds to if a guy is good enough? You know what adds to guys being good enough overall, having Uber talented teams around them? And a majority of the guys that you name have such talented teams around them. Of course, you're going to look great if you got C.C. Maunaoa blocking for you.
Starting point is 00:26:28 Who looked bad with him as they're starting tackle? Tyler Van Dyke. Who's holding the clipboard? Who's holding a clipboard at S&M? I don't know. I mean, you want to try out Joe Filarty. I mean, he's all yours. Well, you know, Joe Falarni shouldn't be nowhere but on the lacrosse field, but that's neither here nor there.
Starting point is 00:26:45 He actually played in the last lacrosse game, too. Good for him. Good for him. Yeah, good for him. All right, well, I want to talk a little hoops when we come back. How many teams is the ACC going to get into the NCAA tournament? You want to keep it locked right here. I'm Alex Dono from Locked on Caines.
Starting point is 00:27:00 We got Brian Smith from Locked on Seminels. Kenton Gibbs from Locked on Wolfpack, Jackson Holzer from Locked on Syracuse. You want to keep it locked to the squad. Folks, tax season does not have to take over your life. This year, TurboTax is making it easier than ever to just hand things off and move on with your day. With TurboTax full service, you can have your taxes done for you by a trusted local expert start to finish without the stress or guest work. Instead of spending hours trying to figure out forms, I've been there, you can meet with a local TurboTax expert in person or connect online. And they handle everything from W-2s to self-employed forms and work to get you every deduction.
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Starting point is 00:28:19 locked on Seminoles. You can check me, Alex Dono out on Locked on Cains. Miami Hurricanes are, you know, certainly on the bubble. At the time that we're having this conversation, it's right before Miami takes on North Carolina at home, which could either be a quad one win or, you know, another loss, depending on how that one goes. So it's funny, guys, because when I look at the ESPN Bracketology, they have like the number of 10. teams per conference estimated to get in. And they have 10 from the Big 10, 10 from the SEC. Okay, so the ACC back up to nine. Excuse me. I thought they had the ACC at seven. The ACC at nine, which would be a nice bounce back from last year only having four in.
Starting point is 00:29:01 And the Big 12 with seven. And the nine that they currently have in guys are Duke, who, despite losing to UNC over the weekend, already a lock. Louisville, UNC, Cal, NC State, Clemson, Virginia, SMU, and they've got Miami in a play-in. So, I mean, at the end of it, I mean, are you worried, Kenton, about anybody falling out? Do you think there's a team or two on the bubble that could maybe surge? I'm looking at Donnell. I'm looking at your boys, Donno. I'm looking at them because they got a tough out of head.
Starting point is 00:29:35 I mean, I don't even really consider them in at this point. I think they've got to get a quad one win before the season's over. And that's the thing. at the time of recording this, we do not know the results for the game against UNC. And also they've got to travel to Riley to play NC State as well. On Valentine's Day, of all days. What an evil world we live in.
Starting point is 00:29:55 But I guess all those young men and all their girlfriends, they spend an Nile on it ain't got to think about. I'm joking. I'm joking. I'm sure they're being fiscally responsible. But in all seriousness, that is a team that I'm looking at and saying, hey, they got a little bit of a road ahead of them
Starting point is 00:30:09 in terms of the games that they have left on the schedule. Now, the beauty of it is, yes, there is a tough road ahead, but also that provides those opportunities you're talking about, Dono. So while it does feel like, if things go as predicted, y'all are probably out, if you win one of those games, if you still won against UNC, if you still won against Z-State, you can find yourself firmly two feet planted in the tournament in Jay Lucas' first year. And I'm going to tell you something, even if they don't make it, how good do you feel being Miami going from dead last in the comments? conference to just in a year saying we turned this thing around and got back to the tournament. So they've got nothing to be ashamed of. It feels like they're coming back down to earth. But all it takes is one or two of these quad ones down the stretch and you firmly end up in the tournament.
Starting point is 00:30:58 Yeah, I was going to say the same thing about Miami right now. I hope you guys. What was going on? Go ahead. I was going to say the same thing about Miami. I mean, we don't know. We don't know the result about or at the time of this recording about Miami and North Carolina. so maybe Miami already has that big win on their resume.
Starting point is 00:31:18 Right now Miami doesn't really have any big wins. But they have plenty of opportunities. They got the Carolina game, which already happened, obviously. But this weekend you got at NC State. That's going to be quad one. You got at Virginia, which is next Saturday. That's a big one right there. You got at SMU and then Louisville as your last two games of the regular season.
Starting point is 00:31:40 So if you can manage to win two of those games, take care of business against the other teams. You're in. It's that simple. In fact, they might not be like on the bubble come selection Sunday. They might be like, yeah, they're going to get in as like a seven or eight seed. Like that's how much Miami has the opportunity to climb right now because the record is there. The only reason why they're getting kind of penalized right now is you don't have any big wins.
Starting point is 00:32:05 So if you can get some big wins, then they're going to be early in the tournament. It won't even be a conversation. Yeah, yeah. From Miami right now, their two worst losses are better than any of their wins, or worse, I should say. Their two worst losses are worse than any of their wins are good. Home against Florida State. Thank you, Brian, and home against Cal. Brian Smith, I'll give you the last word on ACC Bubble Talk.
Starting point is 00:32:34 NC State, I think, is the team that will be interesting down the stretch. Virginia, I mean, they probably got into that 20-win plateau. NC State's kind of close. Are they really a really good team that'll finish strong or are they just a meddling team? I think they could go either direction. You watch your mouth, right? You watch your mouth, Brian. You don't talk about Will Wade like that, okay?
Starting point is 00:32:58 That's our American gangster. I think NC State's going to get in. I don't worry that much about them. I mean, they have good ones on their resume. They have at Clemson on their resume. So, like, their Louisville loss was bad. The Louisville loss. I was just about to say.
Starting point is 00:33:13 bad, but at least it was on the road to a really good team. So you can just be like, that's a really bad game. You might get dinged one or two points in terms of where you're at in the bracket, but you're still in the bracket. I will say Brian brings up a very good point. If you look at what happened against Louisville and you look at what happened against UVA the first time they played, NC State does have that tendency. It's just the reality of what we're looking at here.
Starting point is 00:33:43 They have that tendency of every time we look up and listen, Wolfpack Nation, please. Y'all know I love you. You know, I'm a member of Wolfpack Nation, you know. But there's a reality of sometimes we just blink and we're like, wait, are we down 15? Wait, are we down 20? What happened? And so the rest of this season, NC State does have to at least be competitive in these games, which I expect.
Starting point is 00:34:04 I expect to win a couple. I expect to be competitive. But Lord forbid, if Smitty ends up right here and there is a couple more of those 20 pointers, I can understand the committee saying, I don't give a damn that you won a month and a half ago. You have stuck it up and you were a first round exit in the tournament, ACC tournament. Kent, what you just described about how, you know, you look at a team and, you know, all of a sudden you're down 15 points in the blink of an eye. I mean, you just described
Starting point is 00:34:29 Syracuse every single game right there. Yeah. Good job. Congratulations. That's us. I think NC State will get in, but they might be the reason that SMU or somebody else does not. You just don't know who they're going to, like, could be the agency tournament. they're the team that, I mean, they just got beat by 40. Like, how do you, how do you predict that? That's what I mean. You don't know what you're going to get with them in any game. You don't.
Starting point is 00:34:52 Hey, listen, it was a one-time thing, okay? We may have gotten beat by 40, but we beat four to stay by 40. We beat Chalborettee by 40. How about that? You beat Syracuse by 20. Why don't you keep dumping your chest? Yeah, yeah, we beat bad teams by a lot. So we got Notre Dame and Stanford left on the schedule.
Starting point is 00:35:08 So we're going to beat up on some more bad teams. You should because they saw. But we do forget that NC State did lose at home to Georgia Tech. Hey, hey, hey, hey. We don't talk about that. The whole 16 win streak is the law. We don't talk about that Georgia Tech loss, okay? It didn't happen, right?
Starting point is 00:35:25 Exactly. If we all pretend like it didn't happen, it just didn't happen. If our collective minds work hard enough, Staddaemeyer's squad did nothing in Raleigh, that didn't happen, okay? Well, maybe it did happen. Maybe it didn't. Huge. Thank you.
Starting point is 00:35:41 and shout out to it's a hoax it's a hoax conducted by big ac c media exactly it was a i that game was a i trying to silence oh it was a i all right divert your eyes from that ai huge thanks to kenton gips from locked on wolf pack jackson holzer from locked on syracuse brian smith from locked on seminals i am alex dono from locked on kane's and we'll talk to you next time on another episode of the acc squad we are part of the number one locked on podcast network, your team every day.

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