Locked On ACC - Daily College Football & Basketball Podcast - BELIEVE: Can Miami Hurricanes' Offense OVERRUN Indiana’s Top Defense? Experts Debate Path to Win

Episode Date: January 15, 2026

Miami Hurricanes eye a sixth national championship as they prepare to battle the undefeated Indiana Hoosiers in a high-stakes college football showdown. Can Mark Fletcher and Marty Brown power Miami��s offense past Indiana’s vaunted run defense, which allows just 75 yards per game? Hosts Alex Donno and Kenton Gibbs break down Miami’s keys to victory, emphasizing ball security, time of possession, and running behind their massive offensive line. Are Rueben Bane and Akheem Mesidor the defensive difference-makers Miami needs to pressure Heisman winner Fernando Mendoza?With Indiana favored by 8.5 points and a potential title celebration in their home stadium, the Hurricanes face their biggest test yet. The analysis covers simulated pressures, RPO usage, tactics to attack Indiana’s zone coverage, and whether Miami’s defense can force Mendoza into costly mistakes. Will the “U” announce its return to college football glory, or is Indiana’s magical run destined to finish unbeaten?Everydayer Club  If you never miss an episode, it’s time to make it official. Join the Locked On Everydayer Club and get ad-free audio, access to our members-only Discord, and more — all built for our most loyal fans. Click here to learn more and join your team’s community: https://lockedonpodcasts.com/everydayerclub  Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors! GametimeToday's episode is brought to you by Gametime. Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONCOLLEGE for $20 off your first purchase. Terms and conditions apply.WayfairGet last-minute hosting essentials, gifts for all your loved ones, and decor to celebrate the holidays for WAY less.Head to https://Wayfair.com right now to shop all things home. Wayfair. Every style. Every home.  FanDuelToday's episode is brought to you by FanDuel. Football season is around the corner, visit the FanDuel App today and start planning your futures bets now.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

If Miami does this on Monday night, they're winning a national championship. You are Locked on ACC, your daily podcast on the Atlantic Coast Conference. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. Five days away from the Natty in Miami, I am Alex Dono, host of Lockdown Cains. He is Kenton Gibbs, former NC State defensive linemen and co-host of Lockdown Wolfpack. And thank you so much to the everydayers for making Lockdown ACs. see your first listen. We're available free wherever you get your podcast. We're free on YouTube. We're part of the number one locked on podcast network, your team every day. Today's episode is

brought to you by Fandual. The college football playoff is here and Fanduel is the best place to get into the action all playoff long. So visit Fandual.com to get your college football playoff, profit boosts every game day. Well, we have one more huge game day coming up on this loaded episode. We'll give you our predictions for the 10 seed Miami. hurricanes against the one-seed Indiana Hoosiers, Miami, an eight and a half point underdog in this one. We'll talk about the matchups. But Kent and Gibbs, I'd like to pick your brain first. If Miami is going to try and hoist National Championship No. 6, what do they have to do against Indiana?

Let's start offense first. What does Miami have to do against that vaunted IU defense? protect the ball means protect the brand. Okay. What Indiana does better than almost any other team in the nation is take the ball away, which they've done so at such a high clip. It's fed into the cheating narratives because people are like, there's no way that their DBs are always this well prepared.

I'm sorry to tell you guys, when you get paid a lot of money to do a thing and you focus on doing that thing really well, results could be interesting. But even beyond that, you have to protect the ball because when you look at all of the closest games that Indiana has played in past two years, you look at the turnover difference in all of those games that have been close. The opposing team has either been within one turnover of them or won the turnover battle out right or they're reading. You do not see teams be negative two, negative three and have a close game against this team. And this is why I look at that Oregon game when everybody's like, oh, you know, there's. no way they got this much better to beat that Oregon team. What the hell cheating could they have done to make Dante Moore push the ball into his running back show?

What did see it do? Is he paying them? So ultimately, looking care of the ball is what you have to do if you are Miami. To me, there's a second sneaky thing that they also need to do that everybody's going to say it, but nobody wants to really acknowledge the power of it. it's also time of possession. And people say that because Miami's been so good at it. They're like, well, Miami could dominate time of possession and still lose.

B.S. if they take care of the ball and they dominate time of possession, this game will be very close at minimum, at minimum, because that's the style of game that not only Miami wants to play, that's what Indiana doesn't want. Who wants their Heisman winner on the sideline for eight minutes of gameplay, 12 to 13 minutes of real time, every single time that the opposing team gets the ball.

Who wants that? So ultimately, those are the two things I see this game coming down to for mine. Well, time of possession plays very much into mind because it's a symptom of this. Miami's got to be able to run the football. And, okay, so Indiana comes into this game 15 and O. And Kenton, a huge part of that is they only give up an average of 75 rushing yards per game. That's good for second in the nation. Like teams by and large have run into brick walls trying to run into Indiana.

And another part of that is to be fair to the statistics because they don't tell the full story, a lot of teams have been down big against Indiana and have abandoned the run because of that. So that plays into it. So I think Miami needs to commit to the running game in this one, Kenton. It's something, you know, Miami has run the football better in the playoffs than they did during the regular season. and that has come again, this is another great rushing defense, but I heard a lot of the same things about Ohio State had a top rushing defense. Miami had success over 100 rushing yards.

Texas A&M had an excellent rushing defense. Miami had over 170 yards against Texas A&M. I'm not saying Indiana will be easy, but like ironically enough, when I go through the closer games that Indiana played this year, Kenton, a lot of people will try to look at, you know, what Ohio State did against them in that 13. to 10 big 10 championship game.

I also think about back on November 8th, Penn State without a head coach, nearly pulled off an upset against Indiana, and they had some success running the football to the tune of 117 team rushing yards, and they had some success against the run as well. So I think for Miami, you know, the big blocking up front, and I mentioned earlier this week that Miami has 331 pounds on average on their O line compared to 278 on Indiana's D line. So you need to try to lean on them as much as possible. And Mark Fletcher at 225 pounds, Marty Brown at 230 pounds. Miami's going to try, and again, no guarantees this happens,

but they're going to try to wear down Indiana's defense the way that they've done to some others. And then the other thing, Kenton, that I look at from Indiana's defense, I had a long conversation today with Alfredo Artiaga, who's been analyzing this game. And, you know, they've obviously been so successful. And you talk about the takeaways and, you know, a lot of their five-man rushes. They do gamble a lot on defense. Now, these are educated gambles, right? But a lot of times they guess and they guess right.

So maybe if Miami can get a little bit lucky and they have a five-man rush and Malachi Tony is open, you know, in the slot. Like, if Miami can get a little lucky or kind of counter Indiana's guesses, maybe they can hit a couple big plays. Let's do some inside baseball, Dono, because I always aim to increase the knowledge base of our viewers here. Not only does Indiana specialize in five-man rushes, there's another thing that they are very elite in,

that very few teams can do at the same clip. Everybody has in their playbook. Very few executed the way they do. It's called simulated pressure. What does that mean? Simulated pressure means you're bringing a nickel or a linebacker, but you're dropping a edge rusher most likely in that type of package. Now, here's why they do that so well.

Number one, teams have not had very good slot-wide receivers that can make a small little nothing into a big play if they're left in the situation where a defensive end is dropping out and rallying. And by the way, there's another thing that helps our idea. They have a lot of position versatility. All that lack of size. they have. Those guys can move. They can move at a high clip. They can do things in coverage that most bigger guys, a 280-pound edge, probably could not. So they have very good ability to drop

and immediately get to their spots at where they're supposed to be. But anybody who knows football at a high level knows, the way you beat the blitz is throw where the blitzer was. Now, where is the blitzer coming from in a simulated pressure? Nine times out of 10, it's either very close to, or in the box. I think that Mario is going to have to lean on some RPO's that are getting Tony involved and getting a ball in his hands while he has a running start very early

because that could very easily kind of scare Indiana out of what they're good at doing. Now, with that being said, it's always easy to talk about this stuff. It's always easy to say, oh, yeah, while I'm drawing it up on the chalkboard, this guy comes from here and this guy drops here, and all you got to do is sneak in the alley.

You know, it's always easy to do that. But if this offense, if Dawson and this offense can create some easy looks where you're saying, okay, we've done a good job of getting away from wherever the pressure is going and we've done a good job of whenever they are bringing pressure that we cannot beat with the run, we beat it with RPO's or we beat it with the quick passing game, that can put you in a very good position. Indiana plays more zone than almost any team in the nation. And that, to me, if you're playing a lot of zone and teams are hitting you with the quick game and they're getting blockers, out in front of very good athletes, that could be problematic. That could be very problematic. So Indiana is a jugger. They are a team that does a million and one things well.

You have to look very hard to find the areas where they are weak. However, there are areas that are exploitable if you know them. There are areas that, I mean, obviously, Dawson and Company get paid a lot more than you and me to do this game. Cristoballing Company get paid a lot more than you and me. to do this. A few more dollars, yeah. Just a couple.

Just a couple. Just a couple hundreds here and there. What's the difference? But this is a game where Miami will have to tactically excel at a high level. Because to me, this is not just about bludgeoning Indiana to death. This is about working and doing your game plan to an extremely high level. And defensively, Fernando Mendoza has shown if you can pressure him, if you can pressure him, he'll get those feet get a little bit happy.

And I ain't talk about the movie with the dancing penguins. He starts to look around and all of a sudden he gets a little jittery. So ultimately, I think that the key to this game for Miami is just be Miami. Be who you have been all season long, especially in the playoffs. I mean, we cannot talk about how much it feels like Miami's taking the Super Soldier's serum because they didn't turn into a different team, but everything that they were during the regular season is just enhanced, just bought out. to the end of degree.

Yeah. Well, I want to talk a little bit more about what Miami's defense has to do. And you previewed it a little bit. Like you're going up against the Heisman Trophy winner. He's very good, but he's not perfect. The question is, can Miami exploit? You want to keep it locked right here. Kenton Gibbs from Lockdown Wolfpack.

I am Alex Dono from Locked on Cains. And we're only getting started on this brand new episode of Lockdowne ACC. And yeah, folks, we have a big game coming up. The college football playoff championship game is here on Monday. and Fandul is giving all customers even more ways to get in on the action every single game day throughout these playoffs. Because right now, on this college football playoff game day, Fandual users get a profit boost waiting for them in the app. Here's what I love about it.

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So visit Fanduel.com to get your college football playoff boosts every game day. Thank you for making Locked on ACC your first listen. And folks, if you're an everydayer, make sure you check out the Everydayer Club. Click the link in the show notes below or go to locked on acc.com and you can get

ad-free versions of these episodes. You get exclusive Discord access, more benefits like a discount on the locked-on merchandise store. Check out locked on acc.com. You know, Kenton, I thought you hit on something that for Miami's defense, it must happen and it's something Miami's done to virtually every other team that they've faced. year, and that's affect the opposing quarterback, make him uncomfortable at the very least, or put them on the ground.

Miami would not be at this point without the heroics of Akeem Mesedor and Rubin Bain. Like they have in many ways been big drivers that pass rush to get Miami where they are today, and they're going to need to see this one out. Like Miami's not going to win this game if they're not affecting Fernando Mendoza. Like you talked about the happy feat, which is I know something that Indiana has really worked on with him. It was more prevalent when he was at Cal is like one of his, you know, Achilles heels or whatever. It's obviously something that they have worked on. He's had his better protection at IU than he had at Cal. But, you know, a lot of teams have had really good statistical pass protection until they have faced Miami.

So something about Mendoza, he holds on to the football for over three seconds on average. So that either has to change for this game or that offensive line has to play the game of their life, Kenton, because something's got to give there. If Mendoza's holding it for three seconds, and Bain and Mezedore are doing what they do, he's not going to be in rhythm. Let me tell you something, okay? Queen and David Bowie in 1981 came up with a song called Under Pressure,

and that's what Fernando Mendoza needs to be all night long. If one alum of, what is it, Columbus High School down there in Florida, is it Columbus, Miami Columbus? If one Miami Columbus alum and Cristobal wants to be, be a fellow alum in Fernando Mendoza. The reality is this, right? This thing is all about can you generate pressure? Can you generate pressure? There's a reason that their offensive line one player at a game a few games back in terms of Indiana. Those guys, again, undersized, but they move and groove, okay? They do what they're supposed to do. They're technically sound. And here's the thing,

if you're going to beat Indiana's offensive line, you have to beat their offensive line. What do I mean by that. They're very cohesive. They pick up pressure extremely well in terms of blitzes, and there's really a missed assignment. And football, a majority of it, is alignment and assignment. Indiana has that mastered at a level that I have not seen. And as much of people say, well, what makes them different? If you watch most offensive lines, you see a play or two where you're like, oh, that guy just missed an assignment. Perfect example. Watching Ole Miss and Miami, I believe the play that number one from old miss got a sack. Former Florida defensive end.

Prince Humanely. He got a sack because there was a missed assignment on a switch on a stunt that they ran in which nobody went with Humanely. It wasn't that he worked some fantastic move or he just glitched like a Miles Garrett or something to where it's like, hey, if a guy's that quick, you throw up your hands and let it go. It was a situation where two guys who were supposed to be communicating and switching did not do so effectively. you very, very, very rarely see that from Indiana.

Now, here's the other part of this. You know what Indiana has not seen a Rubin Bain? You know what Indiana has not seen an Akeem Mesedor? They have not seen the likes of that type of pass rush all year. But when I talk about Indiana and what they do, you have to, one for one, man for man, you got to win those one-on-one battles. You have to win those one-on-one battles. To me, that is the biggest defensive key for Miami because here's the deal.

If you can get home with four, you can leave seven in coverage. If you can leave seven in coverage, you can create those natural brackets for Sarat and company where it's like, hey, if Mendoza's going to do this, he's going to have to make tight windows, tight throws into tight windows under duress. And I don't care who you are, right? There's speculation on whether or not who thinks Mendoza's what or whatever, case may be, is he the best, eyes, the worst side? I don't care about none of that. I don't care if you got the best quarterback there ever was to live.

If you ask me which one of these as a defensive coordinator would I want him throwing up a clean pocket with plenty of time or under duress, which one? It's easy. It's easy. I want to see multiple guys getting home winning those one-on-one battles because ultimately if you combine that with not turning the ball over, not putting their offense in great positions. That's what will get you a national championship. That's what will have everybody saying, because I'm going to tell you something, to me, that you ain't back, that you ain't back.

And that's a sign of respect for Miami. The same way I tell people, Texas ain't back till they win a national championship. That's a sign of respect. If you're winning 10 games a year, if Virginia Tech had the type of season Miami's have right now, Virginia Tech is back. This is what we saw. from the best Virginia Tech team we ever saw. The best Miami team we ever saw,

if you threw a rock in their huddle, statistically speaking, you were more likely to hit a future all pro than you were to hit a guy that was not going to start in the league for multiple years. That is the quality of the youth and that manifests itself through national championship.

So ultimately, if Bain and Mezidore get it done, they prove in this game that the U is officially back. And you see the stats in the playoffs on Bain and Mezedor, Ruben Bain has put on 21 quarterback pressures in three games, 19 from Mezador. Mezzador's pass rushing grade is slightly even higher than Baines at 86.2 on pro football focus. Bain with an 85.3, and Mesaador's pass rush win rate is 27 percent to Baines 24.

So that's the group that is going to try to provide that duress onto Fernando Mendoza. And, you know, Kenton, when you, and by the way, I agree with you. you. People have tried to make me waiver on this, but I've said that I'll say the U is I'll say the B word when they win their six national championship, whether that's five days from now or 50 years from now. That's when the U is going to be back for me. And you talk about perhaps, and there have been some really good ones, but 2001 Miami team is possibly Miami's best championship team ever. Kenton, they scored so many points just on defense and special teams that if their offense didn't score a single point that year, they would have been

eight and four, just based on the points scored by their defense and special teams that year. That's how good that team was. My God, on today, that's what we love. That's what I'm talking about in terms of U is back. And that's why I say they can't be back without a championship, in my opinion, because there's a level of reverence and respect that you have to pay to what the U actually is, to what that brand actually is. And saying that a team is back prematurely, if I say you're back because you win nine

games, that means nine games is your peak. If I say you're back because you went to a national championship, that means going to a national championship is your peak. If I say you're back because you won the big enchilada, now we're talking about, hey, no team can say, I've won something over that. Not in college. They don't play for Super Bowls in college, baby. This is it. This is all you're going to win at the FBS level. So on late Monday night, is Miami going to announce to the world that they are back? We'll have predictions for you right here on the this brand new episode of Locked on ACC. Thank you for making Lockdown ACC your first list.

And for your next list, and make sure you check out our other shows. Kent and Gibbs and Grayson Boone host Lockedon Wolfpack covering all things NC State. I cover all things Miami on Locked on Cains. All right, KG, mentioned it a few times throughout the week. The betting line has grown a little bit. Indiana is now favored by eight and a half points on fan duel.

So Miami is a very big underdog in the week. their home stadium. I know there's going to be a lot of Indiana fans in that stadium. They have shown us throughout these playoffs. They travel exceptionally well, but it's still from Miami. They get to practice on their own practice field. They get to sleep in their own beds. So they get to treat it like a regular game week, if that's even possible, where Indiana gets all the razzle dazzle that comes with it. But what say you, Kenton? What's your ultimate prediction for how this game is going to play out on Monday night. You know, I said this and I stand on this. There has not been, in my opinion, a pair of edge rushers in recent history in college football doing what these two are doing

at this level for Miami for this sustained of a time, especially in terms of big games, playoff games, games with these types of implications. We have not seen that. We have not seen a running back elevate his level over regular season. The way that we have, with Mark Fletcher and what he's done in these playoffs in quite some time. We have not seen a defense as a whole because let's be honest. Yes, the pass rush has been immaculate, but even the second and third levels, I mean, my God, it is just a bowling ball of budget. It's a house and knives.

And Miami, this is a home game. Let's be honest. It doesn't matter how well Indiana travels because at some point in time, you got to leave the confines of that hotel. And you got to look around and say, huh. I guess everything is Miami themed around here. Huh. I guess Miami football is the only team that's worth a darn around here right now,

except the Florida Panthers. We know. We love hockey here, too. That only team is worth a darn right now. But with all that said, I knew there was a butt coming. I think that this Indiana team, they're just a buzz saw, man.

And I think that I hope that Miami pulls off one of the greatest upsets of all time. I really do. I really do. but I really see a Heisman winning, Heisman winning starting quarterback, a potential future Hall of Famer and a head coach, who is leading a resurgence of a team that was dead in the water. And I know people are talking about Christopher Ball bought Miami back.

I don't, y'all don't understand. Miami being back is unlike Indiana ever being. Okay. It's a different, whole different ball. game there. I think that this is Indiana's time. I think this is Indiana's year. I think that they get it done. I think this game is a decently scoring game. I think that there's going to be a lot of scoring in this one, but I think that Indiana wins and covers because I think that they just, I think that ultimately they're able to stop the run well enough to force Carson Beck to have to

throw the ball a lot, which I don't think Miami wants to do. And so I see Indiana winning this one, 31 21. That buzzsaw is about to meet titanium. They are about to meet their match. I'm going Miami. And obviously, and listen, when I say this, Miami has to play their best football. I think it's also true for Indiana. I mean, people act like Indiana can walk in there and make mistakes and win this game.

Now, Indiana has not made mistakes throughout the season. They've only turned the football over eight times all year long. But to me, they've not seen a defensive front as disresolved. as Miami's. Nobody has until you've gone head to head with these guys. And I appreciate how efficient Carson Beck has been in the playoffs. It has past seven games all wins. He's thrown 15 touchdowns to two interceptions. I think Miami is going to do what's necessary. And when they play national championship games in their home stadium, it tends to go Miami's way. They've won three of their five national titles have been clinched at home. I think the magical run for Indiana comes to an end.

and the Cinderella run for Miami, a team that a lot of people thought shouldn't even be in the playoff is going to continue. I've got Miami 23 to 20, and I predict the only thing I'm really confident in Kenton is I'm going to be breathing into a paper bag during the fourth quarter as I've been for most of these playoffs. I can tell you that.

I think it's going to be a close one. I've got Miami edging it out. I'm going to tell you this. I don't want people to take my prediction as what I hope happens. If Kent got his wish out of this thing, Miami rolls, okay? And everybody sits up here. Well, now, what the hell is Miami got going on?

Well, maybe Indiana was cheating and Mario put everything on paper and not the cloud. Maybe something happened here because Miami is dominating in a way. You know, like I said, my only wish for Miami at the start of playoffs was to do something that would let Rubin Bay fall into the lights. That dream is gone. It's over. It's done. It's not happening.

So at this point in time, I want Miami to win by 50. but I just see this is an Indiana team that they have holes, but those holes are so small. It just feels like you got to hit a perfect trick shot like your bals are or something while you're leaning out the web. It's a little tough. It's a little tough for me. But ultimately I do think this would be a really good game.

I think even though I have Indiana winning by 10, I don't think it's a 10 where it's like they dominate all the way throughout and Miami score is late to bring it close. I think it's more so it was a three-point game or something. something like that until late there's a turnover that turns the tie of this thing and they go ahead and seal it with a late touchdown. But I think this will be a great game on Monday. It's going down Monday night, 7.30 p.m., which probably means around 750.

You're going to see the Miami Hurricanes in Indiana Hoosiers. He is Kenton Gibbs from Lockdown Wolfpack. Make sure you follow him at TGIF underscore Kenton. Follow me at Alex Dono and on Lockdown Keynes. And we'll talk to you next time on another episode of Lockdown ACC. part of the awesome number one locked on podcast network, your team every day.