Locked On ACC - Daily College Football & Basketball Podcast - Best Bets for The ACC & NCAA Tourneys w/ Mike Randle

Episode Date: March 13, 2024

In this episode, Kenton has on special guest Mike Randle to talk best bets and smart money for the ACC postseason Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

What's up, beautiful people. Be Locked on ACC family. New listeners, how y'all doing? We are getting into March. It is tournament time. It is conference tournament time. It's big dance time. We are going to get into all things,

brackatology and betting. But you know, Candice not. We're good at what we do, but we're not perfect. We know that we need a little bit of help. You know, as the old song goes, I get by with a little help from my friends. And I got my very good friend,

Mike Randall, from the FTT for the Numbers Network in today. to talk all things, Bracketology, Joe Lannardi, and some tournaments and some best bets, because we know sports betting is getting legalized in the new state every day, so we're going to help you all make some money. Mike, you ready to get into it. Kenton, I'm ready. Thanks so much for having me. This is the best time of year. And this week for the next 10 days is the best time, absolutely conference tournaments,

major conference tournaments, and the opening weekend of March madness. Nothing better. Well, absolutely. Let's get into it on today's episode of Locked on ACC. You are locked on ACCC. your daily podcast on the Atlantic Coast Conference, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day.

Before we get in to bring you all this great content, I have to let you know that this episode is bought to you by Nissan. Are you the kind of driver that likes to push things a little further? Ever wonder what adventure could be around the corner? Take the Nissan Road, the Nissan Pathfinder, or the Nissan Armada, and go find your next big adventure. Check them all out at Nissan.usa.com. Now, I got my main man, Mike Randle in the building, and we talked about this a little bit off air.

But Bracketology and all that good stuff is that has long heralded the ACC is one of the favorites. The ACC has long been a darling in college basketball. And it seems that the ACC has lost that status. But the way in which some conferences are being alleged, and let me just say this, I don't give a damn, sue me. The Big 12 is all right gaming the system. right with scheduling a bunch of jv teams in the island of mids fit toys university community college of southeast delta valley state and and so we're in a situation where these teams beat up on a bunch of nobodies and then when they get into the season they play each other so it's like

oh no Kansas lost to oklahoma state what a what a wonderful Oklahoma state team that is and it's like oh no uncc lost to georgia tech what a terrible acc this year ill gross and and you know it's just one of those things that that is very upsetting for me and other ACC fans. But that's why you're here. You're a third part that doesn't have a dog in this fight. You can go to all of the locked-on network and say, hey, I prefer being in a locker on Big 12 show if that is your prerogative. So I want to know, do you think rackatology is still accurate and even worth it?

Or is it one of those things that's more so like, this is talking heads kind of talking themselves into a circle about who they do and don't like just because they're doing don't like some of them. Yeah, I like the big wins. So I have no issue here with putting teams in in any conference, ACC, SEC, SEC, Big 12 that have those big wins. But I agree with you. Losing to West Virginia is no better than worse than losing to Georgia Tech. Every conference has a weak bottom here. And like you said, look at Iowa State. I think Iowa State's really good. But their non-conference schedule was atrocious. Why are they doing that? Because they know the Big 12 is going to rank highly and they know they're going to pick up those points during the regular

season. But Kent, and I'll say this. If you get North Carolina, Duke, and a sleeper that I like into the elite eight, no one's going to say a word because how you judge good conference and how you judge a strength of the conference is arbitrary. Some people say big 12 is the best because they had Baylor and Kansas win the national title recently. So that means we ignore the bottom. I don't know how it gets to fine, but I'll say this. The teams that make it from the ACC are just as dangerous as any other teams in the big conferences. Well, that's a shock because from what I was hearing, the Mountain West is just as if not more dangerous than the ACC, which objectively time after time, and this is the thing

that bothers me so much about bracketology and the net, knowledge and all that about the rankings here. At some point in time, you have to do this fun thing where the ref throws up the ball. Two players go after the tip, and then there are four other players around, both of those players and they got to play some basketball. And time and time again, when that happens, especially in tournament time, you just talked about, hey, you got two in the possible in terms of folks who can make to the lead later deeper. Time and time and time again, the ACC is putting those teams into deep tournament runs

and every time people act surprise. Well, who could have guessed that Miami and Isaiah Wong were this good? But who could have guessed this UNC team? was this who could have guessed that John Shire had come or Coach K's last year or who could and it's like we all could have told you this we all could have told you that the ACC is in fact as good if not better than advertised from the number standpoint because again there's this fun thing called the eye test and it has to matter somewhat to what we're doing here I get it you don't want to get too subjective and too into the weeds but to me it's just if your numbers

keep crunching out an equation that keeps being flipped on its head completely. At some point in time, you have to look at your equation and say, there's something wrong here. The math ain't math and as the new kids like to say. And I compare it to poker all the time. Not because I love playing poker, I do, but there's a combination. You have to know your chance of hitting the flush, but you also have to look at the person across the table from you

and in your gut, know whether they're bluffing or not. math is good, gut, marry it together. That's the perfect combination. Can't go one way or the other completely. So what I like to do is I look at the numbers. I look at big wins. All that stuff matters. But in the end, we are Duke in North Carolina in the final four very recently.

Miami was in there last year. The top teams in the ACC can hold their ground. Sure, there's a couple teams that are disappointing. Same in the SEC. Same in the Big 12. Same wherever. Mount West, a little much with the Mount West where people are going.

A couple teams are dangerous. But by and large, the ACC is going to be heard from. And we have teams in here that have proven it time and time again, you'll see him in March. And that's why everybody will have to be quiet then. Right. And I think the most interesting thing about Joe Lenardi in particular in bracketatology is like, of all the bracket predictors and creators and all that,

he's like very, like slightly below the middle of the pack in terms of the ability to create not only accurate predictions of who's in and who's out, but also in terms of predicting like who's actually going to succeed, who's going to do well in terms of. of conferences and I'm going to just tell you this, okay, I would love to be completely middle of the road in my job and just get promoted to one of the biggest platforms, one of the biggest stages. I love it, you know, I want to know who he has dirt on out there in Bristol or New York or

L.A. or wherever they are, but that's neither here nor there. Let me ask you this. If you were to kind of come up with something different from the net, or if you were to tweak or adjust the net, what would you do to make it a more equitable and sensible? situation, not just to benefit the ACC, but to benefit all of college basketball. Yeah, the thing that bothers me, and look, I have no problem taking a stand. I appreciate you because you have to take a stand. I was all over Virginia up and down. You can check our podcast saying that they were going to win the national title the year

after they were eliminated. Number two, I was on Florida Atlantic last year. From start to finish, you can look that up. I think you have to plant your flag on certain teams and just stay with them, not go middle of the road. What I would do is this. I want to reward success. I don't, I want to see small school teams that play really well get in.

I hope Kenton that Indiana State gets in. Problem is they were buried by Drake 47, 29 midway through the second half, I've had a big comeback and fell short. So I think success should be rewarded and wins should matter. How many times have you seen a team like Syracuse with the ghost of Malachi Richardson make a run to the final four? I want teams that have had success. I don't want to hear if a team in the.

The ACC is 10 and 8. That is a good enough record to get in. I struggle with the major conferences that are like seven and nine, things like that. But I think you have to reward the regular season a little more, specifically with the mid-majors. That's my big beef. You had a team like a Charleston or someone, old Dominion years ago. They go 28 and 5, Ken. And they end up making the finals of their conference that they lose.

I think that team should be in. So that's my major gripe is, like you said, everybody can lose in the non-conference. here and there, but you should reward those teams, particularly those that are playing well at the end of the season. Absolutely. You know what? I, too, would like to see the Sycamores get into the tournament. So we'll see how that goes. And now we're going to get into the men's tournament in terms of the ACC, because we're going to talk about, is there going to be a big stealer in this thing? Or is this thing going to go chalk enough to where we got everything holding stable? We'll talk about all that and more in just a second here. But folks, I have got to talk

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Because I know the locked on ACC fans, they get a little antsy. Y'all like to be teased with it and make them wait. So please tell me this. think that we will see a bid stealer win the tournament or do you think that there's going to be a team that was already in that's already had some success, one of the, the big three of the UNC, Duke, or Virginia that take it home in this one? I don't think they'll be a bid stealer. I have a couple of teams that I think can make a big sleeper run, but I don't think

it's a bid stealer. I do not think it's Virginia. I'm throwing them out. I'm done Kenton with their offense. And listen, Tony Bennett's one of the best coaches of college basketball. Amazing job. They're just not at the same level. If I see Ryan Dunn't shoot another airball from the free throw line,

they just don't have enough offense. However, Duke, North Carolina, Pittsburgh, and I got a couple of the teams, too, that I think can make a run. There's only one that I have in my mind that would be a bid stealer, but I do think there's a chance that it's someone besides the top two. Okay, so who would you, and like I said, we've talked about the fact that, you know, for the numbers network, You all the numbers, including the casholas, the De Niro, the Euros, the yen.

So who would you say has some great value in terms of, hey, this is my horse? I want to ride up for the ACC tournament. The team that I put today in our article that I think is a dark horse is Clemson. Now, if you look at the bracket, Kent, and I want to go for the people who are listening here, we'll go round by round. You look at that first round. You got BC, my alma mater, Miami, Louisville, NC State, Georgia, Tech, Notre Dame.

I don't see any of those teams making a significant run. Miami just doesn't have it. The chemistry is gone. Notre Dame is playing very well. So I could definitely, Michael Shrewsbury does an amazing job. That backcourt is good. They're getting better.

They've pulled a couple upsets. So I could see a situation where they possibly beat Wake Forest and move on to the next round, but that's it. Now let's go to the second round. Virginia Tech, Florida State. I can't see them putting together enough games. Wake Forest, no way. Now let's get to the bottom two.

Number one, don't sleep on Syracuse because I remember Kimball Walker out here. I'm in New Jersey in the tri-state area who put Yukon on his back and went absolutely ballistic with that team took them all the way through a March madness. But hold on now. And that's what surprised me a little bit

because I like Judah men's too. I love me some Judah men. I'm surprised you don't have any faith in Padula and Couture for Virginia Tech to potentially nothing. I'm going to tell you because Kenton, I don't trust Lynn Kidd inside. I think that the side, they're just so. And they have to shoot extremely well. And I think away from home, they don't.

I've waited for them and I've wanted them to get going. Just too many ups and downs down the stretch. That's my issue with Virginia Tech. You look at their schedule, lost to Pittsburgh, lost to Syracuse. Yes, they ended up beating Notre Dame, but that game was too close. Even the game, the Wake Forest game at home, they won. Wake Forest isn't great. I don't think they can beat North Carolina.

line up. Okay. Proceed with your take on Syracuse. Tell me about juda Mitz and why you believe in Sirius. Oh, Judimins can put everybody on their back. He could have that type of, he has that ability. Just an elite score gets the basket. Adrian Archerie figured things out in his first year and I'm an old Syracuse fan from way back in Derek Coleman's days. So there are a possibility. But the team that I think is your long shot that I put in as the one that I want to pick if you're going deep is Clemson at plus 850. They entered the season 27th and D1. experience, Kenton, so they got a lot of experience on the roster. They were 63rd minutes continuity, so a lot of players have come back that have played

and 21st in average height. They shoot 36 from three point range. They got PJ Hall in the interior, Schifflin's the X factor, and they're really good from the free throw line. You add those things up. They beat North Carolina and North Carolina, which they never do. And basically, Kent, let's keep it real. They beat Duke at Duke, but that was a terrible call.

Hey, hey. Which is fine, which is fine. So that's the one as a team. Brad Bromel's not a sexy guy. People don't get it fired up for Clemson basketball, but they got Gerard, they got Hall, they shoot the three, Chase Hunter's playing well.

That's a team, I think, is your sleeping. Okay, all right. So tell me this. Who's your favorite? Who's your safe money? That's like, hey, this bet ain't going to get your house in the Hapton's, but it's going to pay for your lunch next week.

Well, Ken, you're going to give me North Carolina plus 150. I mean, I thought they'd be minus 110. I'll take it. They are not losing a Virginia of Florida State. And I guess Pittsburgh is different. Blake Hinden certainly can go on fire, et cetera, but I don't think they can get through North Carolina. Hubert Davis brought in Cormac Ryan. He brought in so many great players that really put them together and has been fantastic. And you know, they surround Armando Baycott. He's been up and down, but he's a solid figure with a

high floor. Harrison Ingham's been tremendous. And RJ Davis is a first team, All-American. And you can make an argument that RJ Davis is best player in the country. He is that good and has played that well. So you're going to give me plus money with North Carolina, who I think is flying through to the finals. I'll be happy to take it. Okay. All right.

I like it. I like what you're talking there. I like what you're telling me. So long story short, what I'm hearing is one of the orange teams or North Carolina. Clemson, Syracuse, North Carolina. Those are your big three of where you're like. this feels safe. This feels good to me.

And even Kenton, if you want to get, it's the eye test, like you said, and you marry the models. We've run 10,000 simulations at FtN. So we have our model run the simulations. Best number one odds are Duke. We give them plus 246. So a little bit better than what you're seeing out there.

North Carolina right behind them at 276. Who do you think has the third best odds? Clemson at plus 738 and they are the six seed. So that's why I added up. it's one of the orange teams or one of those blue buds. Virginia is not beating Duke. If they'd have to, McNeely have to have nine threes in that game, their offense just isn't at that level.

It really isn't. And that's just saying it's a down year. Tony Bennett can bring it up next year. But it's Duke, North Carolina, Clemson, long, long shot, Syracuse. That's how I see it. All right. Well, y'all heard it here first now. This man, he didn't say they run five models or hundred models.

How many models? 10,000. 10,000. Okay. that's more miles than no girl says she will walk. She said she would walk a thousand miles if she could just see you tonight. Well, we got 10,000 models here. And Mike is telling you where the money is lined, okay?

I'm going to just tell you that the way that these eggs cost an $8 a car right now, I'm trying to be where the money reside. But we, you know, we're going to get into that a little bit later. We're going to finish this thing out talking about who's got the best chance to go deep overall in the big dance. Because the ACC tournament is nice. The NCAA tournament is better. We're going to talk all that and land this thing in just a second. But before we do, I've got to tell you all about one of the best.

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Don't miss out on this great opportunity to make yourself a little extra scrella. And again, we got a betting expert here today to help you out with that. Now, with that being said, let's get into the end of, or let's get into the end of the season altogether. Let's get into the best bets for the big dance, okay? Because you talked about a sleeper. You gave us a little bit of the team. I told you I ain't like a tease, but Mike said, hey, I'm going to do it my way. I'm going to still give y'all just enough, just enough to keep it coming back.

So tell me, who are the teams that you look at out of the ACC that you would say on the men's side, hey, this is a team because we know on the women's side, you've got a plethora of team. Take your choice, throw a rock in the huddle and you're going to hit somebody that's going to make it to the at least sweet 16. But on the men side, tell me who you're looking at. to say this team is prime for a run. Well, assuming we don't see, we haven't seen the brackets yet. So it's bracket dependent, matchup dependent. Last year, Duke had a really nice bracket, but they ended up running in Tennessee.

Veteran team pushes them around, Chires first year, et cetera. So it's all about the matchups. However, North Carolina can certainly make the final four. They're great. They're balanced. They have experience. They've gotten there before. And RJ Davis is just a killer.

He's just that good. People are going to start saying Kenton that he can't play in the NBA because the size, like they said about Jalen Brunson. We saw how that turned out. RJ Davis is a special player. Duke can also make a run. They have balanced. They have depth.

Jared McCain is starting hitting a lot of threes. So they certainly can make a run. They've only lost four times here since, what, December 4th? I mean, they were 19 and three before that last game against North Carolina and no shame in losing to them. I certainly said Clemson can make a run. In fact, I went on the B-Sin Vegas Sports Information Network and I put Clemson in my final four. I just think that the team that has balanced, that has height, they can make their free throws.

They have everything you need to make a run. And again, the last team I'll throw out is someone is going to get hot from the playing game. Every year, except for one, one of those 11 or 12 games. That's the first four games that we have before we start. That team always gets hot. Take a look last year. How about Pittsburgh?

Pittsburgh rolls in that matchup. They beat Mississippi State by one. Then they crush Iowa State by 18. Then they play Xavier almost win that game. So if an ACC team were to find their way in there, Syracuse, et cetera, they can absolutely make a run and get going here. If one of these other teams get on a far run, that is the place that I target because one of those teams, you have the two 16 seeds and then two of the other teams. One of them always gets hot, starting with VCU the first year, took it all the way, the final four. So that's kind of my round up.

One of those ACC teams makes those first four other than that, NC Duke and of course Clemson, who I love. Okay. And you know what? Again, and did y'all also run 10,000 models for the big tournament? I know that y'all don't have the bracket set yet. So it's not yet, but it's coming. Okay. All right. Not yet, but it's coming. Well, listen, y'all know, y'all know the deal here, okay? On Locked on ACC, we love to show our guests in hospitality, and we love to expand your horizons into listening to our guests as well. So, Mike, tell the folks who they can find your work. Come over to FTT fantasy. It's one stop. We have everything you need. FTM bets promo code FtN hoops

Get you 35% off. You can join us. We have the models. We have the Sims, everything you want. FTN Daily as well. Join me here. Talk to me at Randall Randall Rand.

Tell me I'm crazy. Tell me I'm smart. Just tell me something here on X machine. Love to get back to you. Thanks for having me, Ken. I appreciate it. Oh, no problem at all. And I'm going to tell you,

the locked on ACC defense, this is a tough group. They'll tell you if you're crazy. Trust me. They've called me and Candace everything but good Christians on multiple occasions now. So, you know, we need to let you know. that you're asking for something and you go and get it, most likely,

with these wonderful regulars that we got on Locked on ACC. We got the best fans in the world, and I hope that they turned into Mike Randall and FDM fans as well, because you're great at what you do, and you know we've got to have you back. When the actual brackets are set for men's and women, we got to have you back. I need to have you back on so we can talk through this thing, all right?

Anytime, man. Thank you so much for having. I appreciate you. Absolutely. Thank you so very much for being on. Folks, Candace Cooper will be back tomorrow. But signing off for Kittgen Gibbs and Mike Randall. Till next time, folks.