Locked On ACC - Daily College Football & Basketball Podcast - CHAOS: Duke's Win Total SHOCKINGLY Undervalued | Dabo Swinney's BOLD Prediction

Starting point is 00:00:00 The sports handicappers are way off on the win total for the Duke Blue Devils this year. That's a team that's going to turn some heads. You are locked on ACC, your daily podcast on the Atlantic Coast Conference. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. Shout out to the everydayers and thank you so much for making Lockdown ACC your first listen and your first watch. We're available free wherever you get your podcast. We're free on YouTube. We're part of the Lockdown Podcast.

Starting point is 00:00:35 network, your team every day. Today's episode is brought to you by Monarch Money. Take control of your finances with Monarch Money. Use code locked on college at monarchmoney.com for 50% off your first year. On this episode, we will examine

Starting point is 00:00:51 Davosweeney's prediction that Clemson, team he coaches, is going to become the first ever 16 and 0 team in the history of college football. We'll talk about the high profile week one matchups involving ACC teams and how the conference is going to fare against some of the elites around the country.

Starting point is 00:01:10 But we have some takes. Our guest today has some takes. You know them. You love him. He's Brian Smith, host of the portal and host of Locked-on Seminoles. And Brian, you were looking through the win totals, the fan dual win totals for ACC football teams this year. And I know the first one that grabs your attention is the Duke Blue Devil.

Starting point is 00:01:30 What's going on there? I saw six and a half. And I thought, okay, they did. just went and spent a bunch of money on a really quality quarterback. They're really good in the trenches. Their head coach has proven that he can get it done. And six and a half, ACC schedule? I'm not so sure that's the right number.

Starting point is 00:01:50 I think they're going to win eight, maybe nine. Like their schedule is not like sitting here looking at it, especially outside of at Clemson. That's the one game I'm not. I don't feel real good about that. There's no game on here that I'm concerned. And Illinois is at home. That's tough.

Starting point is 00:02:06 Tulane's on the road. Of course, they stole their quarterback, but NC State, Syracuse is not the same team they were last year. Cal, I know it's a road trip, but Cal's not that great. This is a team. If they won nine games, it would not shock me. And I know Vegas doesn't miss a lot. Let's be very, very honest.

Starting point is 00:02:25 They're very good at this. But why is it six and a half? Trench is good, good quarterback, good head coach, usually means you have a successful season. any level six and a half i'm not buying that i think that it's over and i'm not a betting guy by by all means i'm not but if i was that would be the first bet i would make in college football this year is the over for duke especially they won nine games last year so i'm with you like what are we missing here i can understand if they had the same team they have right now but they're coming

Starting point is 00:02:57 off a six win season like then i i get it like they need to see it to believe it but we just saw go two and a half wins over six and a half a year ago. So I'm with you on the Blue Devils. You know, I've been looking at these over-unders. I think the one for Miami has actually gone up because I remember seeing it months ago at eight and a half. I'm looking at nine and a half now. Yeah, I think it was at one point.

Starting point is 00:03:25 I think it was at eight and a half, which is interesting. I guess maybe, you know, the betters have heard that Carson Beck is healthy. because I don't know why else they would jump up that much, Brian. I think I guess people maybe had their concerns about Beck's throwing arm, but he's been out there practicing with zero restrictions. Miami's a really interesting team because they've got so much talent, arguably the best right tackle in college football. Obviously the Beck situation coming off the injury last year when he was at UGA.

Starting point is 00:03:54 Is the secondary ready to take a step forward? It can't go any further back. They got a bunch of transfers there and a couple of guys like O.J. Frederick coming back. then they got those young receivers you got a lot of talent and a couple of key transfers lots to talk about with the hurricanes nine and a half i think is about the right number like eight and a half if i again not a gambler if i did i'd went over yeah but a nine and a half it's it's it's it's you're splitting hairs i don't think there's much value in picking one way or the other for miami there you know but if they went 10 and two it still wouldn't surprise me they have as talented a team as there is in the league clemson included top to bottom, it's just a matter of putting it all together. And again, they've got more transfers than it's some other schools and all that. But sometimes that hits. So Miami's really intrigued.

Starting point is 00:04:42 I think if Miami's going to go over nine and a half, which would be 10 wins or more, they're going to have to at least split the Notre Dame, Florida, non-conference games. Possibly. If they lose both of those, then you're talking about needing to run the table and the ACC schedule, something Miami is what, never done before. or running the table in your eight conference games. So, you know, there's probably going to be a banana peel that gets slipped on somewhere. So if the hurricanes do split those Notre Dame and Florida games,

Starting point is 00:05:12 they would be on track for a probable 10-win-plus season. But anything short of that, it would be extremely difficult. Yeah. That game at SMU on November 1st is the one I got Circle from Miami. If you're thinking about the nine and a half, that's the game you've got to figure out. SMU fan base, they're into it. They got a really good coach, ironically. Somebody coached at Miami, Rhett Lashley, good football coach.

Starting point is 00:05:37 They got their quarterback, Kevin Jennings back. That's SMU's a team that I don't know what to think. They got killed at Penn State. I mean, they got murdering. But they still played really competitive with Clemson and the ACC title game. They were pretty good last year, especially down the stretch. That's another interesting team. I don't think I'd want to touch them.

Starting point is 00:05:55 But Miami's got to play there. And they've also got to finish the year at Virginia Tech and at Pittsburgh. the weather in those games for a South Florida team is iffy. You're right. They have to win at least one of the Notre Dame and Florida games to win 10. When you mentioned SMU, a difficult one to handicap, they're at eight and a half wins. Them and Louisville are at eight and a half over under.

Starting point is 00:06:16 With Louisville, I think I feel pretty good about the over for them, but not by much. Like I look at Louisville and I say that team has nine wins written all over it, which doesn't give me a whole lot of room for error if the number is eight and a half, but my gut tells me they're probably going to go over. With SMU, I have no idea. Because Brian, the big thing there is they were able to sneak up on everybody last year being their first year in the power four.

Starting point is 00:06:43 I'm not trying to take away from what they accomplished, but they also had an easier schedule last season than they do on paper this year. I just think it's going to be hard for them to do that again, what they did last year. When you're the hunted instead of the hunter, it's a different animal from in terms of how you prepare what teams think of you, the ability to get coverage, teams circling you on that schedule,

Starting point is 00:07:04 the media hype gets going. That's a different deal. We'll see what Kevin Jennings does at SMU and, like, Louisville is kind of in that year later. Like everybody's at least aware of them because they were in the ACC title game a couple of years ago. So those are a couple of those teams. Georgia Tech, I don't think it's going to sneak up on anybody this year either. They're offensive.

Starting point is 00:07:25 They do a really good job with what they get talent-wise. And Haynes King is back for his 29th year of eligibility. So it seems like he's been in college football forever. He's such a good player and I respect him. But like, my God, is the guy ever going to be out of college? The ACC, beyond Clemson, 2 through 6. Alex, you could convince me that Miami's finishing second or sixth. I wouldn't argue with you either way.

Starting point is 00:07:55 Same with Louisville. Same with S&U. Same with Georgia Tech. Any of that? And then Florida State is the other one. We'll talk about it a little bit. They are a complete conundrum to me to try to figure out. So the ACC is really iffy. The only one, again, that I'm very, very confident they got wrong is Duke. They're over six and a half. Well, yeah. So when we come back, I think two of the most compelling, and we're looking at

Starting point is 00:08:16 the fan duel.com win totals here heading into the season. You guys can, of course, wager on all of these. You probably want to think about wagering on Duke to go over six and a half. but I want to talk about Florida State and North Carolina, which to me, two of the toughest ones to predict. You want to keep it locked right here. We got Brian Smith from the portal with us on this brand new episode of Lockdown ACC. Do you ever wish managing your money felt easier? With Monarch money, it can. Whether you're growing your savings or planning a big purchase, Monarch puts you in the driver's seat.

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Starting point is 00:09:53 recruiting is a busy time a year for that. Check out the portal available free wherever you get your podcast and available free on YouTube. So Brian, a few of the teams you mentioned Georgia Tech is at seven and a half wins over under. Then also at seven and a half Florida State coming off a two and ten season, a lot of work revamping the coaching staff under Mike Norvell and revamping the roster, new starting quarterback in Tommy Castellanos, who is like hosting players for sleepovers, There's a lot of team building going on there.

Starting point is 00:10:23 And then North Carolina, whose roster is almost entirely new. And of course, Bill Belichick now at the helm there. I mean, what do you make of Florida State and UNC both at seven and a half over under? You're muted. A state is a really interesting team because new quarterback, new offense coordinator. Out of their starters on offense, 11 guys get a start on an offense unit, 10 will be transfers. in some capacity. Some last year, some this year, but still, that's a lot. Defense, they get Daryl Jackson back. They got a really good coordinator coming in,

Starting point is 00:11:02 but they've got like six new coaches, totally different defensive scheme. So trying to predict what they're even going to look like, let alone what they're going to do, win-wise, is hard. And then you open with Alabama. So I have two main questions. How quickly does the offense assimilate to the new scheme, which is Gus Malzahn? And number two, if it doesn't go well against Alabama, what does that? that due to your psyche? Alabama is going to bring a whole bunch of NFL players to Tallahassee. I don't anticipate Florida State what in that game.

Starting point is 00:11:32 I think Bama will win by about 10, maybe a little more. But if they open up a can on Florida State, I just wonder how that's going to go psychologically. Because you're still installing scheme and all this. That's rough. They got a lot of young players at receiver. So a couple of games to look at. They've got Virginia on the road. I believe that's right before Miami.

Starting point is 00:11:53 They've got Virginia Tech at home right towards the end before NC State and Florida on the road. Some of these games that should be close. If they lose those, they may not get past six wins. They may not even get to sit. You don't know. They need something to go right in the Alabama game and something else. Maybe somehow upset Miami. I don't see that, but if they could do that, they need something like that to happen to get over seven and a half, in my opinion.

Starting point is 00:12:18 I think it's going to be hard. What about North Carolina? This one is really interesting as well. They lose seven out of their eight defensive linemen from last year, but they do have a ton of starts back on the O-line. Those are the first two things that I look at. When you get like Phil Steele or just doing your own research, where are you in the trenches?

Starting point is 00:12:36 They get Gio Lopez from South Alabama, pretty good quarterback, but he's still a transfer. They lose Hampton to the NFL draft. Do we really think this is going to go well? I'm not so sure. Plus Duke is up right now. They're probably not going to beat Duke. Right.

Starting point is 00:12:55 You know, like, who are they going to be and how's it going to work out for them? A telling sign. They play UCF on the road pretty early in the season. If they lose that game, Alex, it could go off the table, brother, because that UCF's bottom third of the Big 12. Yeah. If you're losing to that team, it's probably not going to go very well for you. I need to see it.

Starting point is 00:13:19 And I understand Belichick as a Hall of Fame coach. Totally get it. This is college. This is emotion. And you're rebuilding rosters yearly. There's no long-term contracts for six years at quarterback like Tom Brady. You don't have those luxuries anymore. No gronk.

Starting point is 00:13:34 What are you going to do when something goes sideways? If I had to go one way or the other, I'd go under on Carolina because I don't trust. Same. I don't trust the situation, especially D-1. Losing seven out of eight of your top production players. Alex, that's rough. Yeah, no, I agree completely. And, you know, going back to

Starting point is 00:13:54 Florida State, because I want to talk about these three marquee games, week one, that ACC teams are involved in. And, you know, the first of those in chronological order will be Florida State hosting Alabama 3.30 p.m. on Saturday, August 30th. Now, you mentioned, you think Florida State can keep that one probably around 10 points,

Starting point is 00:14:13 which I would consider competitive, especially since Alabama is favored by 13, right? now. So they're supposed to win that game by two touchdowns or more. You know, you talked about kind of the way Florida State can keep it close, but what would be your big concerns where, hey, if Alabama maybe end up opening up a blowout here, what could go wrong for Florida State in this matchup? Well, I'll go back to what I said earlier. 10 out of their 11 players on offense are transfers, including four new offensive line transfers and one that's a holdover. How are they going to gel? They've got a ton of.

Starting point is 00:14:48 of experience. But how are they going to gel because Alabama is going to show different fronts? They've got a ton of experience. I've got Watson back at linebacker. He'll be an all-American candidate and a just massive unit. If they are unable to run the ball early, do we really believe Thomas Costananos is going to sit in the pocket and pick them apart? No. Alabama's got conservatively a top five defensive secondary two. If they do not win the battle up front and beating Alabama's front seven is not easy. I know Tommy, run around and make plays, but if they struggle up front, the game could get away from them because they're not going to just play from behind throwing the ball. That's not what Tommy does

Starting point is 00:15:27 best. He's got to be in manageable situations. Then his arm strength and athleticism will shine. But they do have News Robinson. They've got score of white. They've got some really, Javan Boggs has turned heads as a true freshman. They got some talent in Landon Thomas. But do they have time to get it to them? And are they going to be in third and six all day? Because if they are, that that will not go well. So, yeah, the next big matchup on And that Saturday night, you've got another top 10 matchup, a top 10 matchup between Clemson and LSU. Now, Clemson is actually favored, Brian. The only of those three ACC teams actually favored to get it done.

Starting point is 00:16:01 They're three and a half point favorites at home against the LSU Tigers. Tiger on Tiger in this one. Do you think Clemson's going to come out on top or is LSU going to pull off a mild upset? I think this game will be a classic game. I like Clemson because they're at home, but I also like them. because I don't trust LSU's defense. The last two years, they have found a way to shoot themselves in the foot over and over and over again in ways that it's just insane.

Starting point is 00:16:27 They've got to prove it to me now. Like their secondary just has too many buss. I trust Clemson schemes. I don't think they'll make as many mental errors and just being at home. Clubnik's really good. Nussmeyer's really good. We've got two of the better quarterbacks in college football in that game. So that's great.

Starting point is 00:16:43 I'm glad they're playing each other. It makes college football so unique and awesome. but the other thing is Clemson's got a lot of speed at wide receiver. If I'm right about the concerns about the secondary for LSU, there's going to be one or two plays where they get, you know, Westco or one of those guys that's going to score on a 70-yarder

Starting point is 00:17:00 and that'll be the difference in the game. But it ought to be close, and I think it'll be a lot of fun to watch. I think you nailed that, by the way, Clemson's receivers against LSU's defensive secondary. I think that matchup is going to decide this game. And on paper, that plays in a Clemson's favor. one of the reasons why they're favored by three and a half at home.

Starting point is 00:17:18 Miami is going to be hosting Notre Dame the following night, 7.30 p.m. at Hard Rock Stadium. The Irish are two and a half point road favorites, you know, coming off a national final appearance. You know, they lost to Ohio State in the title game last year. You know, I talk about this game almost every day on Locked on Cains, and I still don't know what to make of it, Brian. And a lot of that has to do with there being a lot of new pieces on Miami, a completely revamped defense. There's a lot of questions about Notre Dame's quarterback situation.

Starting point is 00:17:50 Is it for sure going to be CJ Carr? Is it going to be Minci if Carr is making his first career start? Can Miami Rattle him? A line of scrimmage on both sides is probably going to decide this matchup. What do you make of it? I think you mentioned most of the things that I would as well. The only additional thing that I'm curious about Miami's past catchers against Notre Dame secondary. I know which one I like that.

Starting point is 00:18:15 I like Notre Dame's, but the experience factor at quarterback makes you nervous if you're Notre Dame. The quarterback situation for Miami, obviously very experienced. Well, it can't be more battle tested. Is he ready to get rocked and get back up after he got hurt? We have no idea. We will see a gazillion NFL players in this game. It's probably going to come down to one or two plays. I wouldn't touch this game with a 10-foot pole if I was a gambler.

Starting point is 00:18:40 To be honest, I would stay away from it. There's too many question marks in an opening game. But it ought to be a lot of fun. I don't even know who's going to start for Notre Dame at quarterback yet. I'm not sure that I'm not sure Marcus Freeman knows, to be honest with you either. Yeah, no, I think that's well said. Well, hey, going back to Clemson, if they beat LSU Week 1, the asked Davo Sweeney, they're just going to keep on winning one down 15 more to go.

Starting point is 00:19:06 Dabo has made a bullish prediction for the 2025 Clemson Tigers. You want to keep it locked right here. We're not done yet on Locked on ACC. I am Alex Dono from Locked on Cainz. We're joined by Brian Smith from Locked on Seminoles and the portal here on Lockedon ACC. So talk about confidence in his roster, Brian. Davo Sweeney said to ESPN's Chris Lowe this week, quote,

Starting point is 00:19:32 I've had one undefeated team. In 2018, we were the first. 15 and O team in the history of major college football ever. And I think we're going to be the first 16 NO team. It's a race to do that, Dabo said. Now, I'm going to say this on the squad, which is coming out tomorrow. We're going to have a bunch of our hosts together. We're going to talk about these comments.

Starting point is 00:19:55 Now, listen, I have no problem with Dabo saying it. He's trying to speak truth to power with his roster. He believes in his kids. If we're actually going to look at this realistically, though, Brian, even if Clemson, who are understandably the favorites to win the ACC, even if they do that, they run the table, 12 and 0, win the ACC championship 13 and 0, even then I'm not convinced that Clemson is beating the likes of your Georgia's, your Ohio states, your Texases who knocked them off last year in dominant fashion in the college football playoff.

Starting point is 00:20:31 I mean, going 13 and 0 is one thing, winning those next three is a whole number. other thing. That's where I'm more concerned. Would I be shocked if Clemson went 10 and 2 or 11 and 1, ended up with the number 3 seed or number 4s? No. Do they have the depth and the overall talent to win games against teams like the ones you just mentioned? I think there are five or six teams that are a little bit different in terms of how they're built. There's so many new quarterbacks. We'll figure out which ones are best based on that after the season starts. but Clemson's depth in the deep secondary, at running back, they just moved a wide receiver to running back.

Starting point is 00:21:08 That blew my mind. With the success they've had at running back at Clemson, that makes no success or makes no sense with how they would do that. Whatever, they do their own thing. But they are good in the trenches on both sides of the ball. Very good. A lot of experience, guys sticking around. Now can they weather the storm when having some luck with injuries?

Starting point is 00:21:29 Because I don't think they can beat. the Ohio states, Penn State's, Texas is in that kind of situation late in the year when attrition, I hate saying it this way, but the longer the seasons go, the shorter the list of teams that can win it really get because it's about high school recruiting in depth. Does Clemson have that? I think their starters are as good as about anybody, but those last three, four games gets about true depth. And they got a few guys on their depth chart.

Starting point is 00:21:57 I'm like, I don't know if they're going to do real well against like Texas, for instance. So I don't think they're going to win it. But they'll be really good. And I think they'll be in any game. But I don't think they're quite to that tier. Yeah, that's just my question because obviously they return most of their talent from last year, highest percentage in the country, in fact, which is great for continuity. And you expect the players to come back to a lot of them to be a little bit better than they were last year.

Starting point is 00:22:23 But the team is not dramatically different to the point where, you know, we all watch them get blown out against Georgia week one last year. we saw them lose to South Carolina at home, and we saw them get, you know, thoroughly dominated by Texas. So have they actually closed the gap with those teams would be my question. Now, go ahead. The depth, again, those teams have more depth. Like, that's why I don't see it. So I hope I'm right.

Starting point is 00:22:51 It's cool when there's something like this that changes, but in college football, it usually kind of stays the same. Yeah. And on like a bigger picture note outside of the ACC, the coaches pull came out earlier this week, Brian. And they got the top two. Maybe they got the right top two, but did they get the right order? Because the coaches actually ranked Texas ahead of Ohio State,

Starting point is 00:23:12 which would actually is the first time Texas, believe it or not, first time they've ever been ranked the preseason number one in either the coaches or AP pull. Yeah. Jay Jackson from Lockdown Blue Devils dropped that one on my head. I'm like, wow, really? So, but do you think like Texas, are they actually better than Ohio State in your mind preseason?

Starting point is 00:23:34 That is a great question. They've got a little more continuity with their staff. Jeremiah Smith still resides in Columbus, but that's always the X factor. O-line coach changing in Columbus and both coordinators. And Jim Knowles left. Chip Kelly, like, I don't know how you rank Ohio State. That is, the talent is insane. Matter of fact, I think they're the odds-on favorite by most of the sports books.

Starting point is 00:23:59 in Vegas. But I don't know, that continuity would concern me. I don't know how you rank it. Archie hasn't played much. The guy for Ohio State hadn't played much. Like, this is a rare year. Out of the teams you normally think can win it, almost all of them are breaking in a new quarterback, except for Penn State. And do you trust Drew Allard? Some do, some maybe not so much. So it's really hard. Penn State, they've had an unbelievable offseason. And that's kind of after a really good season last year. They got to the national semi-final. I know they tried to bolster their wide receiver core.

Starting point is 00:24:36 They go out and steal Trevor Pena from the ACC. They took him off the Syracuse roster. I mean, and I think Penn State is ranked third, if I'm not mistaken. I mean, are you buying them? Because I can't unsee what I saw from Drew Aller, who really choked away that Notre Dame game last year. Like, I can't unsee that. Like, are you buying Penn State as, you know, a legit, you know, national title

Starting point is 00:24:59 potential winner. I think the only two questions are the one you just mentioned. Can Drew play big in big games? And then can James Franklin make the right call? Him and a guy that you also follow very closely are in the same boat. They got to win a game. They got to win a big game with a coaching decision. Of course, I'm talking about Mario Cristobal.

Starting point is 00:25:21 Sure. Because they do everything else really well. I don't feel warm and fuzzy. Like James Franklin just never wins big games. I think they'll end up in the final four to final eight again, but I'm not betting against them against Texas or Ohio State or Notre Dame. Maybe against Clemson,

Starting point is 00:25:38 I would probably take Penn State. So would I. But like there's three or four schools I still like better because I just like the coach that's on the other side line better. So prove me wrong. But Drew Hauer, he did not complete a pass to a wide receiver last year. That is still one of the most crazy stats that I've ever seen in the Notre Dame game.

Starting point is 00:25:57 Like, that is insane. That is insane. So they've improved that room. You got Kyron Hudson. They got Pena. But they still got to prove it into big games now. They've got to find a way to get that done. That's terrible not to have a receiver with a reception.

Starting point is 00:26:10 Well, tremendous stuff is always here from Brian Smith. You want to check him out on X at FB Scout underscore Florida at LO underscore the portal. That's for the portal podcast that he hosts on the Lockdown Network, which is excellent. Also check him out on Lockdown Seminels. Check me out on Lockdown Keynes and follow me at Alex Dono on X. Kenton's going to be back next time, by the way. Kenton is, I think he's in an airplane right now. So we'll catch up with him at the end of the week.

Starting point is 00:26:35 We'll talk to you next time on another episode of Lockdown ACCC. We are part of the awesome Lockdown Podcast Network. Your team every day.

Locked On ACC - Daily College Football & Basketball Podcast - CHAOS: Duke's Win Total SHOCKINGLY Undervalued | Dabo Swinney's BOLD Prediction

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