Locked On ACC - Daily College Football & Basketball Podcast - CONFRONTATION: Missouri and Miami COLLIDE – Will Mark Mitchell vs Malik Reneau Decide the Outcome?

Starting point is 00:00:00 Two wildly similar teams, but they say styles make fights. So what's this Missouri Miami basketball game going to look like? Let's talk Mark Mitchell, Malik Renaud, the whole matchup. Right now in this crossover edition of Locked on Mizzou and Locked on Cains. You are Locked on College crossover. Part of the Locked on podcast network. Your team every day. Hey, all you true sons and daughters and all you Miami Hurricanes fans as well.

Starting point is 00:00:37 It's nice to change up the music sometimes, isn't it? I am John Miller from Locked on Mizzou. That's Alex Dono from Locked on Cain's. And we got a ton to talk to on today's program, including some football, by the way as well. Damon Wilson going one way, Dante Simpson, going the other. But of course we got to start talking about basketball, Alex. And safe to say Jay Lucas blew away expectations in his first year in Coral Gables, huh? Yeah, in my wildest imagination, I didn't think Miami could get the three seed in the ACC tournament, finish third in that conference. You know, Miami was predicted by the so-called experts. I think I had one of the votes on this, but to finish eighth in the ACC this year,

Starting point is 00:01:22 and it's understandable, you know, the team was awful last year as, you know, Jim Laronega, who had some, of course, incredible teams at Miami, had a final four run a few years ago. But last year was really tough from Miami and Coach L. retired early in the year. Miami played most of the season with an interim head coach and Bill Courtney. They won seven games in 2025. They went seven and 24. And then you flipped the record in the first year of Jay Lucas. They went 24 and seven regular season. And they got an ACC tournament win after a double by. And of course, I had some reservations about Jay Lucas, just with the understanding that he was a first time head coach, had some prominent.

Starting point is 00:02:07 assistant coaching roles was the top assistant for John Shire at Duke, you know, the previous couple of years, which is obviously a great person to learn from and from a coaching family from his father, John Lucas. So the coaching chops were there, but when you're doing the head job for the first time, I think I expected a few more growing pains. And then, of course, he had to completely rebuild the roster. There were zero holdovers, which may have been a good thing from last year's team, but there were zero holdovers from last year. So all expectations were exceeded in the regular season. And, you know, I think most hurricane fans are just, they don't necessarily have final four

Starting point is 00:02:44 expectations this year. But I think Miami fans are kind of going into this tournament with an open mind, hoping they can get a win or two. And then this first one is going to be really tough matchup with the similarity of these teams. And then also, you know, some hurricane fans are a little concerned about, you know, playing so close to Missou in that game being played against. St. Louis. So there's a lot of storylines heading into this one, but I'm excited to break it all down.

Starting point is 00:03:13 Yeah, I could understand if I were a Miami fan, I'd probably be a little myth that Missouri is so much closer, but sometimes this just happens, especially, unfortunately, if you're a seven seed, you're not really the priority. There's got to be some logic there, but certainly if I were a Miami fan, I'd be going, gee, thanks for that matchup. We really appreciate it. But to your point, I think the similarities of these teams, I think it's sort of most obvious when you watch Mark Mitchell and Malique Renaud play. And because of how these teams are so similar, I think they're going to have to guard each other too. So it's sort of my previous episode, we were talking off air how I did the pointing Spider-Man meme. Well, these two guys almost remind me another meme I've seen

Starting point is 00:03:56 lately, kind of a viral video where there's this guy who's trying to like back down like a, like a you know like a like a like a like a buick that type of thing like that's got how mark mitchell and malique rano like to play especially mitchell in the post so how do you see this matchup playing i think they're very similar players i think mitchell is a little bit maybe more athletic but reno maybe a little bit more of a refined player he's certainly a better free throw shooter how do you see this playing out yeah you know i see it as a situation where if they both play their best, they almost cancel each other out. Right?

Starting point is 00:04:33 But you never know who's going to have their moment. And Renault, and obviously you could say the same thing about Mitchell. They've been so clutch, you know, for both of their teams this year. So it honestly may come down to who can get the big and one down the stretch in a close game. You know, who makes that maybe one extra offensive rebound that can spark an important point down the stretch. I think this is a sensational matchup. And if you even go down the statistics, like Renault averages 18.8 per game,

Starting point is 00:05:05 Mitchell averages 18.3 per game. Like they're almost identical as you go through the stat sheet. So I think really this is one of those where both coaches probably look at it strategically like, all right, these guys are probably like you said, going to guard each other. And hopefully if they both play their best, it kind of cancels out. And then on the Miami side, if Renault and Mitchell cancel each other out a little bit, Miami hopes their other big man, Ernest Uday,

Starting point is 00:05:30 who's not nearly as much of an offensive threat, but a great defensive player, shot blocker, and offensive rebounder doesn't finish at the basket nearly as well as Malik or Mitchell does, but maybe a guy like Uday might have an opening to sort of take over the game in big spots. But I could definitely see this being a scenario where the two of them, Mitchell and Renault, they either cancel each other out or whoever has the more impactful.

Starting point is 00:05:53 game, their team ends up winning. Yeah, I'll just say from a Missouri perspective, I don't hate the matchup on the Mitchell side simply because the teams and the matchups that can bother him or guys who can move their feet who are a little bit taller. I like that they're basically the same size. They're basically both 6-9, 2.30, 240, somewhere in there. And since you brought up Ernest U. Day, you know, I think I disagreed.

Starting point is 00:06:20 I think with one of my previous guests this week, our colleague locked on Ben, that's Lee Sterling. I think Uday knows exactly who he is and is a pretty effective player, but Lee thinks he's basically terrible. Who do you think's right? I think it's funny. Lee is a really good friend of mine, and I know he's a big Miami guy as well.

Starting point is 00:06:41 He lives in South Florida, but I'm with you. I disagree. Like I think Ernest Uday really knows his role and has leaned into it throughout the season. Like if you were to talk about the. the earnest Uday of, you know, November or December, I could have agreed with that take that, you know, very inconsistent. But I thought since ACC play started for Miami, I think he's carved out a really important role for himself as a rim protector and as a rebounder. So, listen, he's obviously got a ceiling, a lower ceiling when it comes to being a scorer and everything like that.

Starting point is 00:07:20 But no, I agree with you. I think Uday knows his role, and I think Jay Lucas has really helped him lean into it. So that's the thing. If Mark Mitchell and Renault, if they do happen to cancel each other out, like you've suggested, is certainly possible. That's the thing. Uday, I think I know what I'm going to get from him, whereas his counterpart, Sean Phillips, is a guy who's probably a more high upside player. Yeah. But he's also got a lower floor, too.

Starting point is 00:07:46 He's a very emotional guy. He has a tendency to flail his arms around every other. I need him to foul out, by the way. John, just so you know, I'm going to need him to foul out as early as possible. Well, to your point, in Missouri's previous loss against Kentucky in the SEC tournament, the Tigers lost that game. But in Phillips 19 minutes, he fouls out in the game. When Phillips was on the floor, Missouri actually won that ball game by about 10 points when he was in there.

Starting point is 00:08:12 So to your point, I think that's a really good one. I will say Trent Burns, I think U. Day is a good matchup for him, the big 7 foot 3, 7. foot four freshman, redshirt freshman center for Missouri. I do kind of like that matchup at least, because he can get hurt if you can take him away from the basket. And it doesn't really seem like Miami necessarily has that player. But of course, Miami has a lot of good players, including Trey Donaldson and Shelton Henderson. So I want to get more into this ball game coming up here in just a little bit. Of course, those football players I was talking about as well. But first,

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Starting point is 00:10:33 Fandual play your game. And I was watching Alex Miami's most recent game against Louisville in the tournament. I did notice Shelton Henderson turned his ankle a little bit in that game. Stayed in. It seems like he's okay, right? Yeah, he's, he's had a couple moments in the regular season and then in the ACC tournament where he's he's tweaked an ankle. But he's like he's like got Wolverine healing powers. He really does. He had an injury near the end of the regular season where he was like down on the court and we thought, oh my God, is this a season ender?

Starting point is 00:11:10 And then he's back in the game like five minutes later. So I think physically he's about as good as you can be health-wise, you know, heading into the tournament. but just on Shelton Henderson in general, and this is obviously the highest upside freshman Miami has, former McDonald's All-American. You know, it was a big recruiting win from Miami. He was committed to Duke before Jay Lucas, you know, made the switch and was able to bring Shelton with him to Miami.

Starting point is 00:11:36 I honestly think John Henderson from the Miami side, I think is the biggest X factor for this game because he's really the only one of Miami's most important players and scorers who doesn't have. NCAA tournament experience. Like, you know, for a guy like Trey Donaldson, who's been to the tournament the last three years most recently with Michigan, Malik Ranoe having been to the tournament with Indiana, like you have guys who kind of understand what the bright lights of March mean.

Starting point is 00:12:06 But Henderson, and he's, you know, compared to both rosters because Mizzou's got a lot of experience. Miami has other experienced players. I think with him being, you know, so green when it comes to collegiate postseason play, is he going to be able to perform? his regular season standards. I think if he is able to do that and score, you know, 17 to 20 points in this game, Miami's got a really good shot. Or if he has his like welcome to March Madness type of game and is less of a factor, it's going to be tougher because Miami doesn't have a whole lot of depth.

Starting point is 00:12:37 Like my, you're talking about like basically a seven man rotation. Yeah, which is which is, you know, sorry is like that. Yeah, I think that's a big advantage of Missouri is going to have is just having more capable bodies. Yeah, I'll say with Henderson, I think that's funny you said. He's just almost indestructible because I saw that ankle turn. It was almost like going the opposite way to like normally your ankle turns inside. It kind of turned outside. I was like, oh, that looked bad. And then he just gets up. He's like, do to do to do. I was like, okay, I guess he's fine. It's nice to be, nice to be 18 years old, I guess. That's all I can say. But a little more on Henderson and his matchup specifically with Missouri's Trent Pierce, because this is where I do think there's a little bit of a

Starting point is 00:13:19 contrast. Maybe the biggest contrast of all the matchups, because Henderson at 6'5-6 and is a little bit more of a bruiser, I would say, whereas Pierce at 610 is more of like your lanky shooter type. And Pierce definitely has more experience as a junior, been by far his most consistent season this year. I agree. This isn't a really hugely important matchup. If Missouri, can get the best version of Trent Pierce. If Miami can get the best version of Shelton Henderson, that's going to be a huge factor

Starting point is 00:13:51 either way. And I am really curious to see how those guys guard each other for sure. Yeah, especially Henderson's case having to go up against somebody who's 610. I mean, that's just diabolical length. I mean, that's, you know, Henderson's going to try to counteract that with his explosiveness and aggressiveness.

Starting point is 00:14:08 But that, it's never easy for a guy who's in the 6-6 range to be guarded by somebody 6-10. So I'm definitely looking out for that matchup. Now back to the similarities here. We got a couple of Atalahassee point guards, one in Trey Donaldson, one in Anthony Robinson on the other side. Now Robinson was expected to be maybe an all SEC type of player for you Cain's fans out there, but was eventually supplanted in the starting lineup by T.O. Barrett of Missouri.

Starting point is 00:14:38 So a couple of pretty big point guards there, both about six three guys. I think Donaldson 6-3 as well. Again, a pretty good physical matchup there. I think even Donaldson and Robinson were at least briefly high school teammates in Tallahassee. So the competitive fire could be flowing there for sure. What is it about Trey Donaldson? I know he's an effective veteran player. What makes him so effective?

Starting point is 00:15:01 Yeah, he's the engine of Miami. And I'm glad we got to this to the guards because obviously we spent a lot of time on the front court, which both teams have great strengths there. But I think we both know, John, that the teams that make the deep March Madness runs are usually teams that get exceptional guard play when it comes to the tournament. Trey Donaldson, I best describe him as a pit bull. You know, I didn't watch him a whole lot when he was at Michigan. I kind of learned a lot about him during the offseason when he transferred to Miami.

Starting point is 00:15:31 And then when I actually started watching him play this season, he's just delightful to watch with the way he's able to attack the basketball. He definitely has that clutch gene. He's someone who tends to do a really good job when you're talking about trying to put opponents into foul trouble. He's someone who can do that. He's been hit or miss sometimes at the free throw line, which Miami's entire team has been shooting about 67% from the charity strike. But if you're counting on someone to get you to that free throw line late and hopefully hit clutch free throws, he's one of the candidates to do that. I just think Donaldson to me is he's the type of guard that's just built for March when he starts driving to the basket at a high clip.

Starting point is 00:16:15 So I think really Miami in this tournament is going to go as far as Trey Donaldson takes them because I can't see Miami winning any games this week or this month without Donaldson being a protagonist and being a guy who can really propel them there. So since you have such a solid veteran point guard there, I have to say when I was watching the end, to that Miami Louisville game. I was surprised that the canes kind of collapsed a little bit. They had a lead for most of that second half or even up five with about 58 seconds to go. What happened there? Sloppiness is the number one word on both ends of the floor. You know, Miami tends to occasionally be overly turnover prone.

Starting point is 00:16:58 You know, they sometimes make up for that at the other end and one of the better forcing teams in college basketball. But yeah, in that Louisville game, which Miami did hold on to win, but at one point, within the final couple of minutes, Miami turned a nine-point lead into a one-point lead and then had to kind of turn it on for the final, you know, two possessions to really close that one out. It was offensive sloppiness, bad shot selection and turnovers on the offensive end. And then on the defensive end, the thing that can drive me crazy about Miami is their technique when it comes to contest. shots when it comes to really going up and slapping the hands and creating fouls. I just feel like there can be times where they can defend more effectively without fouling. So it can be a little frustrating. They can get a little sloppy.

Starting point is 00:17:48 And I don't know if that's the hallmark of one of the few weaknesses of a first year head coach and Jay Lucas. I think they can be a little sharper on the defensive end of the floor and not forcing as many fouls as they do. And we've seen it, you know, we've seen it go both ways. I mean, Miami had a big time clutch. win against NC State in February in the regular season where NC State kind of self-destructed in that same way that Miami did. So Miami can take advantage of it. If you give them any openings,

Starting point is 00:18:15 they can come back from a big deficit in a very short amount of time. But sometimes there can be that sloppiness when the shot selection is bad and the defense is sloppy. So that's going to be something hopefully they can learn from that. And then of course, they won the Louisville game. The following game was just a baptism against a very good Virginia team just blew Miami out. Nothing really went Miami's way in that one. So we're all hoping there can be lessons learned from these losses and from these close calls at the end of games. Yeah, well, they say styles make fights, like I said, at the top of the show. And right now there's not much of a contrast between these two teams.

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Starting point is 00:21:17 you give Miami a little bit of the advantage. I'm fine with that, even in St. Louis. But the 147 and a half, the total in this game, I got to say this game feels like it's going under to me because I think it's going to be a bit of a grind because these teams are so similar. Like I said, the cliche is styles make fights. I don't think this is going to make a fight, if you will. It's going to be a fight kind of literally in the pain, I'm sure, but I just mean a high scoring back and forth visually pleasing basketball game. Probably not. So give me the under, Alex. How are you thinking about that thought? I lean in your direction. And that's despite certain metrics. But I think, like you said, the fact that both of these teams play very physical, they have size in the paint, and it's the opening NCAA tournament game.

Starting point is 00:22:06 That's why I expect the feel-out process. And I would also consider taking the first half under especially, because I think these teams are probably going to exchange some, you know, to use like a boxing analogy, the heavyweight fight where they're, you know, maybe a little bit cagey and feeling each other out for the first half. So I think overall under and first half under is probably a good way to go. And listen to that there are certain things that maybe try to pull somebody towards the over, mainly in Miami being near the top of the nation and points in the paint and field goal percentage. And then Miami's perimeter defense being statistically poor, maybe Mizzou starts pouring on threes, so to speak. But I agree with you.

Starting point is 00:22:48 I think stylistically this one leans to the under. So I would go that way. And then I think a couple of other just, you know, rudimentary things to consider with the line being as close as it is at one and a half, I think for any, especially the locked on Missou listeners, if you want to bet Missouri in this game, you should go money line, not spread. You're going to get better value there. And then for Miami, you would probably do the opposite, right? There's going to be, you know, more juice on the money line. So you would take Miami, you know, minus one and a half. You got to try to maximize every dollar there on the fan dual app.

Starting point is 00:23:25 So I would go that way. I think that's a great thought. And I also agree with your thought on the first half, too. And I'll just say, I know that we'll see if this holds true in March Madness. But certainly in the SEC this season, the pattern has usually been a much tighter whistle in the second half, which leads to a lot more free throw attempts. That would be the biggest thing I would worry about going under in this game is, obviously this could turn into a foul fest, both Mark Mitchell,

Starting point is 00:23:51 and Malique Brnoe draw a lot of fouls, try to get to the free throw line a lot. But anyway, I guess prediction-wise, how are you feeling about the team? I'll be honest from the Missouri side. I'm going to pick Missouri to win. And if you're going to give me the one and a half, I'll take it. I'm not feeling real confident right now. The Tigers losers of three in a row here. And I have to admit, I'm feeling a little bit stung still going to last season.

Starting point is 00:24:15 Missouri had a poor finish to the season as well. I hope that's not the case here, but I'm a little worried. How are you feeling, Alex? It feels like a coin flip game for a lot of reasons. I'm going to lean to Miami just because I am going to trust Trey Donaldson in the final minutes to be able to kind of squeeze what he can out of a clutch game because I do think it's going to be close. I'm going to go Miami by two, but that's going to be contingent on Uday and Renault staying out of foul trouble. And it's also going to be contingent on, you know, Miami just.

Starting point is 00:24:51 playing some of their better perimeter defense of the season, turning that on in the tournament, because if Mizzou gets hot from three against a team that doesn't historically defend those, that would give me concern. But at the same time, I do think Miami has maybe enough advantages with their shorter rotation of seven, eight guys that they're going to be able to get it done. So I'm going to take Miami, but I think it's going to be a slug vest. Yeah, I agree. It may not be a visually pleasing fight, but it's going to look like a fight.

Starting point is 00:25:21 a lot of ways, I think. That's my prediction. But we'll get out of here with a little bit of football talk because there has been some Missouri to Miami and vice versa, that type of deal. I'll just say, first of all, for Miami fans, you're getting a good one in Damon Wilson. There's no doubt you've gotten one of the best pass rushers, I would say, in the entire portal. Damon was a very good player for Missouri last year. I'm frankly surprised that he left. I just assumed that it would either be the NFL or Mizzou for Damon, because, you know, because when Missouri, much like Miami these days, when they want somebody back, they typically get them back. So Miami must have given him an offer that was incredibly difficult to turn down.

Starting point is 00:26:01 That's all I can say. You've got a good one in Damon Wilson. Yeah, and I think on that note, I think Miami knowing that they were, of course, losing Rubin Bain and Akeem Mesidor in the same offseason, that makes you really aggressively turn to a proven past rusher like Wilson. because Miami's got other dudes at defensive end, but just not anyone with Wilson's experience level. So I think that really became a priority. And also, you know, in addition to the NIL stuff, also, you know, the selling point of, you know, we need our next Rubin Bain, I'm sure is something that they used in that pitch. And then, you know, on the flip side, and we were talking a little off air about this player,

Starting point is 00:26:42 who I'm super bullish on, you know, much different career so far to Damon Wilson. but Dante Simpson, who just finished his true freshman year at Miami, and he transfers over to Missouri, which, yeah, from our point of view, John, that was a little surprising. Like, I still, I haven't inquired on, like, from the Miami side, what the backstory was on Dante Simpson. But, you know, someone who obviously didn't play a whole lot last year because he was a true freshman.

Starting point is 00:27:08 But Dante Simpson, John, I can tell you, he's a South Florida kid, came out of Shamanad Madonna High School. So I did watch him play a little bit going back. to his high school days. He really was like one of the young standouts in practice at Miami last year. And for the minimal game time that he got, did pretty well with it. But I can remember going back to some of the shows that I did during fall camp last year. And Dante Simpson was always a guy that, like, we had on our list of, hey, don't sleep on

Starting point is 00:27:36 Simpson. He's really excelling as a true freshman. And I had just kind of assumed that, you know, heading into his second year, had he stayed at Miami would have really been on the short list when it came to rotational guys at defensive tackle this year. And like you mentioned, Miami and Missouri don't typically lose guys to the transfer portal that are part of the plan. Right? I mean, most of the players Miami's lost into the portal, the majority of them, not all of them

Starting point is 00:28:04 necessarily, but have been players who like are talented, but they didn't necessarily see a path to a whole lot of playing time so you go somewhere you can get it, right? I didn't think that was going to be the case for Dante Simpson. I expected him to play quite a bit this year. So you're getting a dog over there, and he's also got a good family. I remember meeting Dante's dad at like parents day at one of Miami's practices last year. If you ever see him around there to tell him, I say hello, because he's a really, just a really sweet, like animated, entertaining guy. Seems like a great dad. So I'm sorry to see Dante go, but I think he's going to do big things over there.

Starting point is 00:28:44 Well, it's very encouraging to hear. Missouri definitely could use that. I called him this offseason. I said, hey, if he turns out to be a dude, I think he could be one of the most, one of the biggest difference makers in the portal. You know, what I think may have happened here is I think Missouri does a pretty good job of identifying defensive line talent. And I feel like they just, they have a whole bunch of things they need to replace on defense. I feel like, I feel like they just decide we're going to spend more on the secondary and bet on the guys that we have coming back on defensive line. We'll see if that pays off. But to your point, sort of like Dante Simpson, you know, I think everybody found Damon Wilson to be a very affable guy.

Starting point is 00:29:24 Maybe he's a bit of a mercenary, but hey, an affable mercenary at the very least. He's going to be a good player down in Miami. I can promise you that. And by the way, hey, thanks for joining me and Alex today on the, on the program. by the way. And if you want to join the Every Day or Club, this is your last chance to use the promo code March to get your first month free

Starting point is 00:29:47 and get in before the NCAA tournament tips off on Thursday. You can compete with both of us in our men's and women's bracket pools on Discord. The winner of each, we'll get a hundred bucks in locked on merch. And as a member of a club, of course, you get

Starting point is 00:30:03 an ad-free version of our programs as well. Again, it's all for free for a month. with the code March at locked on missu.com or locked on canes. dot supercast.com. So Alex, it's been a lot of fun, man. Thanks for joining me on this program.

Starting point is 00:30:21 Until next time, I'm John Miller. This is Alex Dono. And this has been Locked on Missou and Locked on Cains.

Locked On ACC - Daily College Football & Basketball Podcast - CONFRONTATION: Missouri and Miami COLLIDE – Will Mark Mitchell vs Malik Reneau Decide the Outcome?

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