Locked On ACC - Daily College Football & Basketball Podcast - EXPOSED: ACC's Unexpected Championship Contenders REVEALED | Will Clemson Face a SURPRISE Opponent?

Starting point is 00:00:00 The ACC coach with the hottest seat entering this season also has a team with higher expectations than you thought. What's going on in Blacksburg? You are Locked on ACC, your daily podcast on the Atlantic Coast Conference. Part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. Shout out to the everydayers and thank you so much for making Locked on ACC your first listen and your first watch. We're available free wherever you get your podcast. We're free on YouTube. We're part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day.

Starting point is 00:00:40 Today's episode is brought to you by Monarch Money. Take control of your finances with Monarch Money. Use code locked on college at monarchmoney.com for 50% off your first year. On this episode, a former ACC coach is not only backing Bill Belichick at North Carolina, he also made a really good point about Carolina's priorities when it comes to football. We'll talk about the most likely conference championship matchup in ACC football this year, why it might not be the one you think. But Kenton, when it comes to best and worst in the ACC, so we talked earlier this week

Starting point is 00:01:19 about the wacky ESPN FPI ratings, which are analytics-based, and yet somehow they bumped their top ACC teams way down Clemson and Miami in favor of SEC teams jumping them despite no new data since June. So once I got over my initial rage of going over these FBI rankings, I saw something else that was interesting. And I don't agree with this. Maybe you do. But the ESPN FBI rankings actually have the Virginia Tech Hokies way higher than you

Starting point is 00:01:57 think. It's the same Virginia Tech whose coach is probably on the hottest of seats in Brent Pry. any other coach in the conference right now. They really underachieved at 6 and 7 last year, despite the hype and the talent level that they have. And so ESPN has them rated behind, you know, Clemson is the top in the ACC, Miami 2nd, SMU 3rd, and then Virginia Tech, which means they are in front of the likes of Louisville, Georgia Tech, and Duke, meaning ESPN gives Virginia Tech a higher probability to win more games and a higher probability. probability to get into the college football playoff than those other teams. What say you? I'm very confused by this because

Starting point is 00:02:39 Virginia Tech has a fairly difficult schedule. They have a fairly difficult schedule. They're not returning a ton of production. And so I'm kind of sitting here scratching my head saying, do they have their own counterstallions that we don't know about or something? Do they have?

Starting point is 00:02:55 Like, what is it that is going on and what's in the water in Blacksburg that has convinced the folks who put together the FBI? Hey, we have a lot of significant data points that bowed very well for Virginia Tech that don't necessarily do so for these other teams. My biggest, biggest, biggest concern is I'm not sure. I like Chiron drones a lot. I think, you know, it's felt like it's felt like Groundhogs Day waiting and every year saying this is his year to breakout.

Starting point is 00:03:25 But here's the thing about it. I think if you give him a good running game and a receiver like Donovan Green, I think he is, prime for a breakout year. The only problem is, quick question, who's the running back? Who's the star? Who's going to be carrying the mail in terms of people carrying that ball? They lost the good one. Yeah, Byshaal Tootin was a hell of a back, you know, so I'm sitting here asking myself, where are we getting this confidence for Virginia Tech from? Now, if there is something, and I very seriously mean this, if they did pick up somebody late in the portal that was like, hey, this is a game changer, let me know. because apparently I've been doing a terrible job

Starting point is 00:04:02 with covering the state of Virginia in terms of the portal. I didn't know Malikow Fields was at Notre Dame now. So I can admit I'm not perfect. I can admit I'm not perfect. I don't know everything. But I would like to know, is there something that I'm missing, Donald? Is there something that you see that tells you? Because when I look at their schedule, I see at least, at least four games

Starting point is 00:04:21 where they're very likely to be underdogs coming into the season. I'd say South Carolina, Vanderbilt, Louisville, in Miami. I'd say right now they probably be underdogs at all four. And so to see a team that they likely wouldn't be favored against be rated behind them in the FBI, a little confusing. All right. So Virginia Tech, they brought in 30 transfers in this cycle. And that's, you know, it can be a good thing, not necessarily when their highest rated of their 30 transfers is a three star. For what that's worth, right? The most impactful guys on paper that, they brought in Interior Offensive Lyman, Jaden Muskrat, who was at Auburn, Oklahoma State

Starting point is 00:05:06 quarterback. So he'll be a backup quarterback, at least this year, Garrett Rangel, Antoine Santiago, who's a linebacker from Texas Tech. But these are, you know, three-star rated transfers on down. So to answer your question, like, I'm not sure if there's like a smoking gun in their transfer class of, oh, yeah, this guy's going to be a game changer in the ACC. Yeah, I think Donovan Green was already a game changer in ACC four. Farris last year, but I think that he's the guy that I look at in that skill position group

Starting point is 00:05:34 that I'd say is going to make the biggest impact. And yet and still, I'm not, I like Donovan Green a lot. I have seen him torch defenders a lot living in the triangle. With that being said, I'm not sure that he reaches the level to where I'm saying, hey, I'm going to look at you and go from four games where you're not favorite to favorite over teams that have patently had success. As much as we talk about retention and what makes it. team successful in this and that. Louisville has very quietly been steadily ascending under

Starting point is 00:06:07 Brom. That is the biggest data point to me. Your head coach's success, despite quarterbacks coming and going. Has there been a single quarterback that started two seasons straight under Brown? I don't believe so. No, not there. So every time he replaces those guys, he gets the team to where they need to be. And this time, we're returning two of the better backs in the country. I'm looking at that thing saying they need this love, not necessarily Virginia Tech in terms of FPI. Is there anybody in the ACC that you think could surprise based on their expectations? I feel that Duke at six and a half wins over under, I think is criminally underrated. Not saying they win the ACC championship.

Starting point is 00:06:56 but it's a team that won nine games last year, and their roster might even be a little bit better this year. So I think they can win eight or nine games and kind of be a dark horse in the ACC. You know, anyone else that stands out to you and don't say Georgia Tech because I think we've beaten that dead horse by now. I think everyone knows we think Georgia Tech is underrated,

Starting point is 00:07:17 but anybody else? Yeah, well, you know, I look at this year's batch of ACC team to see what people are expected for everybody. and honestly, Dono, I don't see any. I know that that's going to hurt our conference perception, but I got to be honest. I got to be,

Starting point is 00:07:33 I don't see teams that I see other than the Duke football team that you mentioned, other than the Georgia Tech team, we've already talked about it, I don't see a ton of other teams. I'm like, oh, man, they're going to blow it out of the water this year. But I will say this. If I had to name one, it is the, you know, the best predictor of future behaviors is the past.

Starting point is 00:07:55 And the team in the past that I came in on and I said, oh, well, you know, they can win a game here, there. They can get an upset or two. And then all of a sudden, boom, we're in the conference championship. SMU Mustangs, you know, the Red Lashlin, what he has done there, he's done a fantastic job. He has created a situation where their expectation, regardless of conference, we need to be in the conference championship. That's the expectation for him. They in the last two years have been two for two.

Starting point is 00:08:22 Every conference we're in, we're going to be in that conference championship. conversation or game. And I believe their underover is what, seven and a half? So with that in mind, I wouldn't be surprised if a team at seven and a half that has these past few years under Red Lashley been a nine plus win team. It's eight and a half actually. Oh, okay, eight and a half. Either way, I think even at eight and a half, I wouldn't be shocked to see them outperform that. Yeah, I'm also hoping for a year when like the teams that are, you know, the alleged bottom feeders, like don't embarrass us. You know, Wake Forest has a new head coach. Jake Dickert, you know, hopefully they can get a little momentum this year.

Starting point is 00:08:59 Their over under is only four and a half wins. You got Stanford out there with their crazy academic standards, lost a ton of players in the portal, and they have a known interim head coach running things this year in Frank Reich. Stanford's over under Kenton is only three and a half wins this year. They open up their season against Hawaii, which from most power four teams, you would say, It's probably a nice winnable non-conference game. We're two and a half point underdogs in Hawaii to open up the season, which is not surprising given how Stanford's team looks.

Starting point is 00:09:31 But can they exceed their expectations? Can Virginia, who's like always a tough out, they just don't get the wins? And Tony Elliott, I think, is on the hot seats. Well, can Virginia exceed expectations this year? I would also like to have a year where we can start to pump our chest, the way the SEC folks do that say, hey, even our bad teams can go out there and beat anybody. Oh, yeah, I'd absolutely love that. And the CEO of the new company I'm working at is a Stanford grad.

Starting point is 00:09:58 So we support the Cardinal on this show. But in all seriousness, I don't expect much from Stanford. But like you said, Donald, just a situation where one or two upsets. That's all we need. Come on now. We don't need y'all to go out there and be world beaters. We don't need Syracuse to run the table necessarily and not send it there bottom feeder because they were fantastic last year.

Starting point is 00:10:20 But I'm saying we don't need that type of thing. We don't need Virginia Tech to win all their games against SEC opponents. We just need a couple. Just look good. Just don't lose to Hawaii. I am sorry to tell you a team that was so off the map. Did you know that they were one of, if not the only FBS team whose stadium was not featured on college football 25? Oh, really?

Starting point is 00:10:46 You cannot lose to that team. I'm sorry to tell you. that is going to be a tough out to explain to your fans interim coach notwithstanding it's it's going to be tough to explain that so like there's there must be some budget cuts happening at EA sports because i guarantee you every year they're like hey when do we get to go out to hawaii to survey that stadium for the new bill sorry buddy we can't afford to send you out there this year their stadium's not in the game exactly exactly so we're we're hoping to see them uh you know do their thing there but again this is this is all a matter of like you said, Donna, we're not expecting these teams. We're not expecting our bottom feeder teams to be eight, nine win teams. That's not realistic. But what we are expecting, just get a couple upsets. Just be competitive.

Starting point is 00:11:32 Just win all your games against a group of six teams or at least be competitive in those. Come December in Charlotte, could the conference championship game be one you're not expecting. You want to keep it locked right here. We're only getting started on this brand new episode of Lockdown ACC. see. Most people can't name all of their financial accounts or even what they're worth, whether it's 401Ks, properties, or investments, and when you don't have the full picture, you can end up leaving money on the table. That's why there's Monarch money. It's an all-in-one personal finance tool that brings your entire financial life together in one, clean, easy-to-use

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Starting point is 00:14:08 For your next listen, make sure you check out our other shows. Kenton Gibbs and Grayson Boone do a fantastic job covering NC State on Lockdown Wolfpack. Of course, the Will Wade excitement and a fork in the road year for Dave Doran coming up. I cover all things Miami on Locked on Cains. All right. So, you know, Kenton, if you go by the way most people handicap the ACC this year, it's pretty much unanimous that Clemson is, you know, being predicted to win the ACC for the second straight year. And then most of the metrics have like Miami coming in second. So theoretically, you get Clemson versus Miami early December and Charlotte for the ACC title game.

Starting point is 00:14:45 but I notice a lot of folks are not picking that matchup. Josh Pate, Vermont three sports for one, is actually taking a flyer on Georgia Tech. Again, the secret is out, right? They're no longer underrated. Georgia Tech is now just rated. He's got Clemson versus Georgia Tech in the ACC championship game. We're going to have coming out tomorrow our ACC preview show

Starting point is 00:15:07 with a bunch of other hosts from the locked on ACC channels. And we were kind of discussing our pre-show thoughts the other day. and I'm expecting the picks to come in heavily for Louisville to face Clemson in the conference championship. So, Kenton, do you see it playing out in a way where it's, you know, somebody else other than Miami facing Clemson? Or maybe you're going to get so bold, you say Clemson doesn't even make it. Oh, no, no, no. Clemson is absolutely making it. Barring a major catastrophe hitting that team, they're going to make the ACCC Championship game.

Starting point is 00:15:41 But the question is, who will. meet them there. And I've got a few different thoughts on this thing. Okay. If I had to say the team that was most likely to meet them there, I would agree that in my personal opinion, it would be Louisville. But if I had to say the most vanilla pick, if I had to put some money down on it, obviously your boys, the Miami Hurricanes, because on paper, every offseason, they're there. They're going to be right there, right? But the spiciest take, I'm going to go with a team. that is from the triangle. My NC St.

Starting point is 00:16:18 No, I'm joking. The Duke Blue Devils are a team that I look at as they could be there. And not just because of a situation where they're that good, it's also how the stars could align for them, okay? I'm going to read off their conference schedule to you, and you tell me how many of these games Duke won't be favored in this year. Against NC State. Against Syracuse.

Starting point is 00:16:41 They'll be favored, yeah. Okay, against Syracuse. Cal, Georgia Tech, Clemson, UVA, UNC, Wake Forest. How many those would it not be a favorite? I counted two. Yeah, I was going to say, for sure, Clemson, that's one, probably Georgia Tech. That's two. Two.

Starting point is 00:17:01 If you lose two conference games, can you make the ACC championship? Absolutely. Absolutely you can. And if things shake out right for them, they absolutely can do it. And again, this is my spiciest take for a reason, because if I'm looking at Georgia Tech, you could ask a very similar question and how many games will they not be favorite in

Starting point is 00:17:21 and you'd only count one, the one against Clemson, but we already know what Georgia Tech is. We already know, we've talked about them and giving them a lot of love. So again, Georgia Tech is a team that's obviously to watch there, but the spicy take has to go to Duke. The most vanilla has to go to Miami, because again, on paper, talent everywhere.

Starting point is 00:17:40 Talent just, you know, it's oozing out of the ears, even though some head coaches would argue that they have not been traditionally talented for some reason. And then you've got, of course, the team that I'm most expecting, Louisville in there as well. But again, I wouldn't be shocked at all to see Georgia Tech in that mix. I will actually have Louisville and Georgia Tech 1A, 1B in terms of what I think will happen the most. Yeah, I mean, Louisville, and this is a story for most ACC teams, Louisville just needs to find the consistency because a season ago, they beat Clemson head to head. That happened a season ago. And again, Louisville might be better this year. Miller Moss could very well be a better quarterback or have a better season this year than Tyler Shuck did last year. That wouldn't surprise any of us.

Starting point is 00:18:28 There are two freshmen running backs who tore it up last year or a year older, a year, you know, more experienced, another year in the wait room for them. So Louisville getting there would not surprise me. You know, Georgia Tech getting there would surprise me a little bit. Wouldn't shock me. Duke getting there would kind of shock me. But again, stranger things have happened. You know, I won't surprise too many people. I will give the nod to Miami is who I expect to get there to face Clems.

Starting point is 00:18:53 And a big reason for that being, I think legitimately, you mentioned like Miami, obviously, on paper, they usually have talent supposedly. But I think that they legitimately have two and a half deep at virtually every position this. year. It's the most talented roster top to bottom that Mario Cristobal has coached at Miami. And, you know, one of the big reasons why I would have hesitated to put Miami in there was, you know, up until a few weeks ago hadn't had a chance to watch Carson Beck throw in person. Looks fantastic. Like, no restrictions coming off the surgery. Really high football IQ. I've been pleasantly surprised. And I think Miami's been pleasantly surprised with him.

Starting point is 00:19:32 So I would lean to Miami. You know, well, one team can't do that I know, people are going to get tempted to put in there again would be SMU. A couple of big reservations that I have about SMU, why I would feel that Louisville, Miami, maybe even Georgia Tech, Duke, because you talked about Duke's schedule, why I would think they could be more likely to get there than SMU getting back there. The conference schedule, A, it's a lot tougher for SMU this year than it was a year ago. They dodged pretty much every bullet of top teams in the ACC last year.

Starting point is 00:20:04 they had a very favorable debut Power Force schedule. They don't have that this year, not to mention, as we all know, the secrets out. They go from the Hunter to the Hunter this year because I'm looking at the SMU schedule. If they can get back to the ACC championship game, Kenton, they're going to have to earn it because they have Clemson on the road. They have Miami at home, and they have Louisville. Now, Miami and Louisville are both at home. So obviously that gives them a little bit better of a chance to win one for both of those games. but they essentially play the top three teams in the conference or top three of four,

Starting point is 00:20:39 if you include SMU as one of those. They didn't have that on the schedule last year. So they're really going to have to be better than they were a year ago just to get back to the same ACC championship game. The reality is when you look at SMU's schedule, if you remove them from the mix, they are playing all of the teams. I know that this is a little misleading, but they're playing all of the teams that have been, in the last two ACC championships. They played Clemson in the last ACC championship.

Starting point is 00:21:08 The year before that, it was Clemson in Louisville. Both of those teams are on their schedule. You are not dodging those teams, not to mention, you've got a ranked team in Miami that you've got to go play as well. You know, they call you Miami West. We're going to see who's the best Miami at this point, Miami East or Miami West, because you're going to have to see those teams. So you're getting all of the good of the conference in essence in terms of the top

Starting point is 00:21:33 four to five teams, with the exception of about Georgia Tech and Duke maybe, that's pretty much all you're missing there. You're getting everybody else, though, so you are absolutely right. And that's why I said Duke could possibly make it, because again, it's not just based off overall schedule. Overall schedule, SMU is out of conference, East Texas A&M, Baylor, Missouri State, TCU. Don't really look at any of those and say, oh, boy, they're cooked. They are done.

Starting point is 00:22:01 you know, those boys are well done. They're overcooked. You're going to be chewing for minutes trying to get through. Not that. Nobody is saying that about their non-conference schedule. However, their conference schedule, now that is tough as nails. That is as close as you could get to a murderer's row in the ACC, again, without just one or two of those top teams.

Starting point is 00:22:20 So, you know, SMU, that conference schedule is what I look at and say, we're looking at at minimum two games that you are not going to be favorite in and a third that you could easily lose and nobody would be shocked to say oh louisville beat this team yeah well when we come back uh you know another team we haven't talked about are the north carolina tar heels who made one of the most compelling off season moves in college football history hiring bill bellichick to be their head coach bill bellichick is getting endorsed by a former acc head coach who also had an interesting angle on the unc situation you want to keep it locked right here we're not done yet on locked on ac c

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Starting point is 00:25:08 For your next listen, make sure you check out the portal. It's one of the new podcasts in the Lockdown family. Our pal Brian Smith talks all things, transfer portal, NIL, recruiting. The portal is available free. Rebbe you get your pods and available free on YouTube. All right, so a former Wake Forest head coach, Dave Clausen, was on the College Game Day podcast, and he had this to say, about North Carolina making, make it a big splash, right? Is it going to be more of a PR move or is it really going to set their football foundation? But he says, I really view this as North Carolina's all in moment in football, Kloss and said of hiring Belichick.

Starting point is 00:25:46 I think they've always been viewed as a basketball school first and the level of investment they have in Bill, his staff, the strength staff and the level of investment they have in the players is a lot different than the support that Mack Brown got. So, and you know what? I think that that's a good quote in terms of the nuances that come with this, Kenton, because we all look at this as North Carolina hired Bill Belichick. Well, they did that. They also invested in a general manager who's got experience as an NFL GM in Mike Lombardi.

Starting point is 00:26:20 They have invested, like he said, in the coaching staff, strength and conditioning. So is this North Carolina's all in moment on football, and will that pay off for them? I think this is. they're all in moment in football, I don't think it'll pay off for them. I think that you went out and you got a coach that with all due respect, everybody can say football is football as football as football. This is a coach that has not ever coached at the college level. No GA experience, no coordinator experience, no experience of any kind at the college level. And we're going to sit here and say, oh, they're prepared to be great right off the back. And then that's the other part of it. Are you getting a guy that's going to say, stick around to build this into greatness. That's the next question up. We all know Bill Belichick wants to be a pro football coach. He does not care for the excuses and mistakes of young guys.

Starting point is 00:27:16 So let alone, we're talking 18 to 22 year olds here. What are we doing here? I do admit they very much so went all in. So if this does not work out, you know, North Carolina fans should not complain, oh, we haven't made the investment into football. We have not tried. So I will give them that. But to me, the play, if you're saying, hey, I'm going all in in last year's coaching search cycle,

Starting point is 00:27:42 you promise all of this support and all of these resources to that coach down there in New Orleans. You go down there and you go talk to summer all that two lane and you say, hey, we're not leaving until you get back on this plane with it or until you sign an agreement to get back on this plane with us. You know why? A young up-incomeer. If he's great there, he'll be great there for the next five to ten years with the type of support you can give him. Bill Belichick, I don't think, has five years left coaching regardless. I don't think he has five left in him.

Starting point is 00:28:13 So you look at that, you look at what was Bill Belichick doing the last time we saw him coaching. It was so bad. He's now arguing with reporters about whether or not he was fired or whether that was a mutual agreement to step down. And you're telling me that the guy that allowed. time we saw him he looked old and worn and not as mentally sharp and as if the game had passed him by and now we're going to throw him in a new lane that he's never been in and so yeah man this you know we know that you you were the greatest f1 race that ever lived so you should be good at NASCAR hold on who said that we know the f1 is a little bit more difficult and there's a little bit

Starting point is 00:28:53 different parts moving it's still a different ball game you still have to get adjusted so an expectation from him to be successful right off the back is a little naive in my opinion. And then you struggle with that part. And then you say, well, he's probably not going to be around there to build. Well, what is this for? In the short term, you know it's not going to be great. In the long term, you know, he's probably not going to be there. So where is the return on this investment?

Starting point is 00:29:16 I do agree. I commend North Carolina for making the investment. I just don't see the return there. Yeah. And I'm skeptical on that as well. But I'm happy to see them going all in on football. and, you know, maybe not to the same financial extent, but I've seen a couple of other programs that are improving in that regard, right?

Starting point is 00:29:37 You know, Duke, I don't necessarily know if Duke is investing as much money into their program as North Carolina is right now. But, you know, when they had Mike Elko there, he started really a lot of momentum for that program, and they're more aggressive now in the transfer portal. Manny Diaz is doing a really good job there so far. I like what Syracuse is doing, you know, with Fran Brown. and with the way they've been recruiting, right? Taking, you know, blue chip players out of the southeast has been impressive. So I think that they're kind of approaching.

Starting point is 00:30:06 They're all in moment. I want to see a program we talked about at the top of the show. I want to see more of this from Virginia Tech. Because you talk about a really rich football history. And I know that all their success came down to it was a different era of college football. And it was a coach who was there for multiple decades with what Frank Beamer was able to do there. But I would like to see them recapture, you know, what was a pretty good history because they were on a good role 90s, early 2000s. I want to see them reach that again.

Starting point is 00:30:39 Not only were they on a good role, they have what it takes to be on a good role again. You are near multiple hotbeds of talent. You can promise kids from the DMV, hey, if mom, grandma, dad, granddad, uncle, cousin, sister, brother, auntie, want to come see you play, guess what? If you come here, they can come see your play. Oh, you know, we are looking at a situation where the top players from that state are always leaving and going elsewhere. And we're wondering, well, wait, why aren't they as good as they should be? At the end of the day, I'm a big believer. And if your state is a hotbed, the first thing you've got to do, close the door to the other schools. Close the door to the Georgia's, the Clemsonsons of the world. Close the door right away to the Michigan's of the world.

Starting point is 00:31:25 close the door. If you are near a major metropolitan or if you are near a major area that is very close to you, you've got to close the door and they just haven't. But like you said, Donald, that investment will lead to that. That investment leads to closing that door. That pushing all the chips to the middle saying, let's hear, pro. I'm going to give you every resource you could ask for. You're going to be armed to the teeth, brother. I'm going to give you more than you could imagine. They're going to say our NIL is almost as scary as into the same man at night. Okay. Now, that's what we're going to do, and we're going to give you two years to figure it out. And if you can't get it done in those two years, when we push all the chips to the middle

Starting point is 00:32:02 of the table, we give you full revenue sharing money, we give you all of this stuff, then you got to go. You got to go because somebody can win here. It's been proven. It's been proven that coaches can win there. And so, you know, if we're looking at a situation where that team goes all in and they can't get it done, I understand. But to kind of be on the fence about it or to kind of be like, yeah,

Starting point is 00:32:24 you know, look at what happened with Florida, raised all that money to fire Billy Napier. And then, you know, DJ Lagway comes in place pretty well. All of a sudden, all that money went to the portal. Now they got one of the best portal classes. Now they're doing well on the recruiting trail as well. How does that work, right? Cause and effect. When you put up all that money, but it went somewhere else, it went somewhere else.

Starting point is 00:32:45 But to put up all that money is the first part. So you've got to put up all the resources. I know it feels strange to say, but college football now putting up the money as part of day. 100% and well said. We appreciate everyone for making Lockdown ACC your first listen. You want to smash that like button if you're watching us on YouTube. Make sure you subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, on YouTube, wherever you get your pods. Make sure you follow Kenton at Lockdown Wolfpack and at TGIF underscore Kenton on X. Follow me at Lockdown Keynes and at Alex Dono on X. We'll talk to you again tomorrow on another episode of Lockdown

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