Locked On ACC - Daily College Football & Basketball Podcast - FIRESTORM: ACC Deal UNLEASHES Chain Reaction in College Sports | DRAMATIC Restructuring?

Episode Date: March 10, 2025

Could the ACC settlement with Florida State and Clemson signal a seismic shift in college football? As the Miami Hurricanes and other top programs navigate these changes, the potential for a "Super League" looms large. This episode explores the implications of uneven revenue splits and centralized governance, featuring insights from Kenton Gibbs and Alex Donno.Dive into the strategic maneuvers of the ACC, SEC, and Big Ten as they position themselves in this evolving landscape. Discover how powerhouse teams like Georgia and Duke might react to these developments. The discussion also touches on the ACC basketball tournament, with teams like North Carolina and Louisville vying for NCAA berths.Join us for an in-depth analysis of college sports' future and the Miami Hurricanes' role in it. Don't miss out on these game-changing insights! Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Did the ACC just start a chain reaction that is about to tear college football apart? You are Locked on ACC, your daily podcast on the Atlantic Coast Conference. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. Shout out to the everydayers, and thank you so much for making Lockdown ACC. Your first listen and your first watch today, we're available free wherever you get your podcast. We're free on YouTube. We're part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Today's episode is brought to you by Fanduel.

Right now, new customers can get $200 in bonus bets when your first $5 bet wins. We'll talk about the ACC tournament outlook. What's it going to take for a fourth team to get into the NCAA tournament? Bubble Watch hasn't really changed a whole lot. North Carolina had a great opportunity on Saturday. They fell short, unfortunately, for them. But let's talk about how Kent and Gibbs, this ACCC settlement with Florida State and Clemson, might create this ripple effect.

And I'm trying not to be too dramatic here. So when I say tear college football apart, those are actually not my words. I was just reading a column by Dennis Dodd at CBS Sports. The column is titled, ACC Settlement Paradox is one of strength and futility, but college sports will eventually tear itself apart. And a lot of it goes, Kent, into what you brought up.

That uneven revenue split could cause a change. reaction and that was a great point that you brought up throughout last week. I think I think that it is short-sighted to say that the ACC and this distribution is going to kick off a pairing apart of college athletics. No, no, no, no. Think about it this way. We're skipping a rock across a pond, right? And what happens every time that rock hits? You start to see little waves happen. Ripple. We're about the fourth, fifth ripple in. This is not new. You've got the PAC 12 being destroyed. You've got Texas and Oklahoma leaving the big 12. You've got so many different things happening that have made this thing where it is now.

You've got the NIL deal and all of this. And honestly, we can really go back to where it all started before anything else. The first thing that got into this that made college sports head down this avenue was when coaches became celebrities and they started getting paid from shoe deals. and started getting advertisements from Coke or Pepsi and all that. It's been a long time coming, you know, to say, oh, NC State is the problem, or I'm sorry, not NC State. The ACCC is the problem. To say that is akin to saying whoever is currently in office is responsible for all of the debt that America currently has incurred. It's nonsensical.

This has been a longstanding thing, and I think it's a little alarmist and penit. Now, can we say that this accelerated that train moving downhill instead of put the brakes on? Absolutely. Absolutely. That's definitely a thought we had. But to say that this is the moment that's tearing college sports apart, I mean, how anti-ACC can you get for crying out? Well, okay, so I want to explain to folks out there in case you're not up on all this stuff, which has been kind of going around in the background for the past several months on, like, what the Super League is or project.

Rudy and why Dennis Dodd and a few other national columnists think that this could help us get there. Or, you know, a lot of people help is probably not the word to use because Kenton, a lot of people, traditionalists of college sports who remember, you know, amateurism, they love the conference model. They love the fact that, hey, there's 134 FBS teams and everyone gets, you know, a certain guaranteed piece of the pie. I'll be fully honest. As a viewer who loves my entertainment, and I want to see the best. possible matchups every single week. The Super League sounds awesome to me.

And I know it's an unpopular opinion, but it sounds awesome to me. But let me read you some excerpts of Dennis Dodd's column at CBS Sports, who, you know, he already talked about how, you know, the ACC will now have an uneven revenue split because 60% of the revenue is going to be paid out based on how many views you get on TV and how much you win. And that's going to be a lot of the same teams. The same teams that do a lot of the winning are probably. also going to be the teams that do really well on TV.

But he goes on to say, Dodd, you should remember that the Super League and Project Rudy that were largely dismissed by the power commissioners when the proposals came out last year, both of their models would reduce the highest level of college football to 70 to 80 schools with centralized governance. So you'd be cutting basically almost half of the dead weight out of it and you would be eliminating conferences. they would be under the same umbrella. He says that centralized governance and outside investment, talking about private equity, would unlock billions that had been tied up in separate conference media rights deals over the years. Essentially, that would mean less loyalty to the SEC,

Big 10, ACC, and Big 12, and more loyalty to whoever is running that combo of 70 to 80 schools, he says. Now, first of all, Kenton, he's 100% right about this. So we already, I mean, we're, our jaws drop when we see how big, you know, the SEC TV deals and the big 10 TV deals are. But if they were to centralize like the top 70 brands in America and make that one league where they sell one TV deal for that one league, they can squeeze out a lot more money when they're not competing with other conference deals. So that is a thousand percent right.

If the people who are really running things behind the scenes in college sports, especially football, kind of realize, hey, we're getting decent money now, but we can get a lot more if we consolidate this thing. You know they're going to find a way to do it. There is a saying that at the bottom, people compete and at the top, people collaborate. I don't think that people understand how well this collaboration can possibly go for the fact that not only would you have the TV deals to say, we've got all. the folks who have all the major TV deals. We have your Fox Sports folks. We have your ESPN. We got all of them in one room in one bucket. Your biggest TV viewership, your biggest eyeball getters, right? Not only do we have them in one bucket, but we're not going to settle for anything below the price. The price that we want is the price that we want. And you can't even hit us

with antitrust because guess what? Tulane is still out there. Southern Minnesota, want to pay them to play football. They're still in. The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors are still available. We don't have a monopoly on all of college football when in fact you do. You do. Realistically, you do because you've got Florida, Georgia, Texas, you know, all of the teams that, Alabama, all of the teams that get all the eyes, your Florida states of the world, your Miami's of

the world, your Clemsons of the world. You've got all of them in one centralized place to say, hey, we can demand what we demand. and if you're coming short, if you don't want to pay it, too too bad. I think that that is a very interesting proposal. And the most interesting thing about all of this is the timing of everything. Again, this is why I'm so surprised by the fact that, or not the fact that, but the idea that ESPN would step in and say like, hey, we need this resolve, do whatever

you can, keep them in the conference, as opposed to saying, you know what, we're going going to let this happen to let it cook. because if you are saying we want them in the conference at all at all costs but we give you not a 2030, you don't think that timing is a little suspicious for when all the big players, all the big players are due for a payday at the exact same time. And you're letting these two big guns go on the market as well. You could absolutely see this as speeding up. That train, that locomotive that was coming downhill for the, you know, singular conference.

it might have just turned into a high-speed rail because, boy, then this thing is moving. Well, when we come back, I want to discuss the top argument for it, like why these big brands could find, you know, a great solution in the Super League, but also why it's going to get a ton of pushback. In fact, there are a lot of reasons why it's going to get a ton of pushback. You want to keep it locked right here. We're only getting started on this brand new episode of Lockdown ACC. We're only getting started with Supply House.

you can get the supplies you need from the site made for the skilled trade. Supply House, whether you're in plumbing, HVAC, or electrical work, supply house is the reliable way to order products online. They're easy-to-use website is packed with helpful resources and the latest product info to help you get the job done right. Plus, with a complete inventory of over 200,000 parts from 400 plus top brands, you'll find exactly what you need delivered fast from coast to coast. Need help with an order?

Supply House offers expert support and industry leaders. service so you'll always talk to a real person. And for trade pros looking for an extra edge, their free Trade Master program offers exclusive perks like dedicated phone line, free shipping, and discounts on every order. Thousands of skilled professionals are already taking advantage. Now it's your turn. Join the Trademaster program today at Supplyhouse.com slash TM and start ordering plumbing, HVAC, and electrical supplies with just a few clicks. Plus, use promo code SH5 for 5% off your order. That's supplyhouse.com. We're also proudly brought to you by Wayfair.

Your home should reflect your style. And with Wayfair, it's easier than ever to make that happen. Whether you're looking for a simple refresh or you're tackling a big home project, Wayfair has everything you need in one place. Wayfair's huge selection makes it easy to find the perfect piece, no matter your space or budget, from cozy furniture and stylish decor to kitchen essentials and outdoor must-haves. Wayfair has it all.

and at the prices that fit your budget. The site has made it simple to compare styles, and my order arrived fast with free delivery. Guys, more than just furniture, I was surprised to find everything from storage solutions to patio decor, baking it my go-to for all things home. Head over to Wayfair.com and finish something that's just your style today. That's W-A-Y-F-A-I-R-com.

Wayfair, every style, every home. Thank you so much for making Lockdown ACC, your first listen and your first watch today. For your next listen, make sure you check out our other shows. Kenton, Gibbs, and Grace and Boone host Locked on Wolfpack. I host Locked on Cain's and Kenton. You think I forgot about what happened on Saturday on the hardwood. I have not.

Miami. Miami gets the big. The battle of the losers. Miami got the head to head against the pack. Sorry about that, KG. We still finished it probably all in the rankings. It's all right. It's all right.

You know, dead last and second to last. We have the same tip-off time in the ACC tournament, and that is half-past never. Not happening this year. Yeah, we are both. Our seasons ended in Miami that day. Both teams are now looking for new coaches. Or actually, one team is looking for a new coach.

Another team will have, knows who their new coach will be. Maybe two teams know who their new coach would be, but maybe I can't tell you yet. Anywho, lots of fun things happening around the ACC in terms of basketball. Yeah, absolutely. All right. So on this Super League or project, Rudy, you know, the idea of basically taking, let's say, the 70 biggest brands in college football, consolidating them together, selling their TV rights as one entity and theoretically just making better football games. It's not to say we don't already have great games, but I mean, you're going to play less of the fluff opponents. you're going to play tougher schedules, better matchups for TV, not, you know, you're not limited by which conference you're in.

Now, one of the big areas, Kenton, where they're going to get pushback is the conference commissioners, like, are they going to facilitate eliminating their job? I mean, you know, that's what would have to happen here. I mean, we know Petiti, the commissioner of the Big Ten, Sankey and the SEC, they've got a ton of power. You round out the power four with Jim Phillips in the ACC. And what is my dude from the Big 12's name? Your Mark.

Brett Your Mark. Brett Yormark in the Big 12. They would, if they were to, now schools could probably circumvent then if they really want this. But you know the Petitis and the Sankey, the Sankees would fight against eliminating their jobs or giving up any sort of power. So I think that's a big thing that would be working against this. It's not just that. think about the schools that are under Sanky and Petiti if I'm Georgia, why do I want Georgia Tech to be bought up to the same level as

me in terms of revenue? That's right. If I'm one of these schools that, hey, I am the premier brand. I'm for more, for lack of a better term, as the kids say these days, I'm him. Why would I then give up some of that to say, hey, I want you to join in with me to where you can get a rise and we can create a better product out of this thing as opposed to actually, no,

I like having more money than you. I like having advantages over you, and I enjoy that. Now again, there is the argument that at a certain point in time you can only pay for so much in facilities, but again, with players now being paid and with revenue sharing coming,

it is going to create a very, I wouldn't say greater, but it's going to create a situation with that delineation is there. And eliminating conferences would eliminate that delineation. It's no longer a situation where it's like, hey, I make so much more than you, even though we're in the same state, because let's say I'm Maryland and, you know, I know Maryland in Massachusetts are at the same state, but Maryland's in the Big Ten,

Boston College is in the ACC. Well, why would I want you who's my neighbor, basically, not too far away from me, to have an advantage of leg up to say, oh, yeah, we're making the same money now when I used to be on pace to make $20 million more than you. So, you know, I think that while the singularity and all that sounds great on paper, in practice, people are too selfish. And sometimes folks will say, I will take five less million than I could make optimally if it also means that you make 15 less money. Yeah, yeah. Well, and yet to your point, the Big Ten and the SEC seem less open to this idea than all the other conferences do because they already have the prestige.

They already have the better traditional football matchups for the most part. You know, they have the leverage, right? You see what they're doing with the college football playoffs seating. They're basically hogging it all for themselves. So they've got less incentive, like you said, like why? would Georgia want to elevate Georgia Tech onto a level playing field? That's the advantage that the SEC and the Big Ten already have. And it's no coincidence, Kenton, that when this private equity group that's behind Project

Rudy, which is essentially the Super League with another name, when they're pitching this stuff, they've had a couple conversations with university leaders within the ACC and the Big 12. But so far, nobody from the Big Ten of the SEC is even talking to these guys. So there's a lot more convincing to do unless you talk about all the ripples, unless now the power schools in the SEC are saying, hey, like you see what the ACC is doing where Florida State and Clemson and Miami can make more money than the rest of these teams in the ACC, Alabama and Georgia might say, wait,

should Vanderbilt really be making the same share that we're making? So maybe this does start to entice that appetite. And I'm going to warn you, that would be the biggest mistake that Georgia and Alabama ever made. you don't have the leverage to pull what Clemson and Florida State just did. There was an alternative for Clemson and Florida State. There is no alternative for Georgia and Alabama. While there may be a belief, while there may be a belief, our brands are strong and our brands will be strong forever. We are Alabama's professional team.

Sure. And you're good right now. There's no guarantee that you're good forever. As a matter of fact, we are watching in real time you be less good than you used to be. we're watching that in real time. We've seen Georgia be the team that could not get over the hump. And if you push to go independent and you cannot get over the hump and you cannot be a national brand, because let's be very honest about that, Alabama would not be a national brand if they weren't winning national championships.

That's just, there's nothing that appealing about their brand outside of the dominance. And that's not. You think about to your point, I'm old enough to remember when Nebraska, was like a real respected national brand, but guess what? They haven't won anything in almost 40 years, right? So Alabama, if not for the fact that they keep winning, their brand would be Nebraska's brand.

Those husks of corn are striveling on up, aren't they? Aren't they? That's what's going to happen to your school. If you decide to push this, oh, we need a bigger split. We need to get paid by who's viewing who and all that good stuff. And then you look up and every other team around just like, well, no, wait a damn minute. None of us can get what they're getting right now. Even if Vanderbilt was good for a few years, even under James Franklin, they weren't getting

viewership like a Georgia was. And then in Georgia were very comparable at that time. Very comparable. There was still a gap in viewership. So with that in mind, I, again, I would say if I'm any of those teams in the SEC and big 10, you better shut up and take an even split. Because if you try to say, oh, we're going to cut out the bottom eight, nine teams in the conference, the bottom 10 teams in the conference, the money going to get real dicey

for y'all. It's more of us than there are of you. Y'all go on, do your thing elsewhere. But this conference that just got all this, we're going to do what we do. And you can say, oh, all of us are going to go independent and play each other. But how many schools realistic we have that? And again, it relies upon y'all all being good. Y'all all staying good.

Y'all all staying relevant. And while all these schools like the line say, we'll forever be good. We'll forever be relevant. I remember Michigan Post-Loy car. I was a huge Michigan fan. I was one of the biggest Michigan fans of the world. I remember it felt like 40 years in the desert before they got good.

That's what it felt like. So, you know, I would warn those teams that are saying like, oh, we're going to repeat this model. the best thing you can do, sure, stay away from Project Rudy, if that's what you want to do, whatever. You better keep that split even because you don't have anywhere else you can go. Yeah, I think part of what makes the Project Rudy your Super League idea so exciting to me at this moment is, like, we now know that all of the major conference TV deals all run up at the same year. Everybody, I mean, I know the ACC technically till 2036, but we came to find out. it's really 2030, 20, 31.

And that's the same year that the big 12 TV deal is over, Big 10, SEC. So in the back of my mind, I get excited like, hey, is it possible that over the next five years, we get enough of these secret meetings and they organize, you know, Super League deal for the next TV deal for all of them. But it's still, it just feels unlikely to me, Kenton, at this point in time, that there's going to be enough cooperation within those. four major conferences. Like I still, I feel like they're too far apart to get something like that done in five years. I know you could come at me like,

hey, you guys didn't think the ACC lawsuit would be settled this quickly. Look what just happens. Never say never, I guess, but the idea of within the next five years and those negotiations would have to start before that, right?

The negotiation would have to start probably in two or three years, not five years, that you would get enough, enough synergy between, you know, the major schools in these four, conferences that they could actually work something out before 2030. Seems unlikely.

To me, what's more likely to happen is we get another round of realignment come 2030, right? I could definitely see, obviously, we know Florida State and Clemson want to leave the ACC. You could see that happening. You know, you wonder if schools like Miami and UNC would be enticed to also try to go somewhere or if the ACC can keep them around. You may have some movement in and out of the Big 12, certainly. So I think we'll get another round of re-enact of.

But I don't think we're going to see the whole thing getting blown up in five years. No, I highly doubt that, you know, the conferences as we know them cease to exist in five years. It, again, everybody is, everybody's contract is up virtually at the same time. But that does not mean that everybody has colluded to make it happen. It seems much more of a happenstance thing. It's like an eclipse, right? Like the sun and the moon have not made a secret pact in agreement. Hey, we're going to scare the humans really good.

It's the same thing here. I get it. This is the work of men and women who decided, hey, our conferences are going to run out of their TV deal at this time. I would not, I'll tell you this, less likely things have happened. Less likely things than the singularity, the single conference, the project really thing,

have happened. Less likely things have happened. But again, even if you were to get there, how much would you have to work out? Because we're talking about all of these schools would have to agree. And then after all of these schools agree to join it, or actually before all these teams agree to join it, what does the revenue split look like? Is everybody going to go to the ACC model where it's like, hey, the more you get, the more viewers you get, the bigger

or kind of this pie you get. The pie is so big, but everybody gets a percentage based on your viewership. And at which point, would the lower rating schools want to be involved in that? You know, because even if you say, well, we could stand to make 10 million more than we would in the SEC because we're a great eye getter in a Georgia or Alabama or something like that or at Florida State who's like, oh, yeah, we could absolutely, this would be better than going to one of those counties? Sure, sure. But then would the lower schools agree to that? Because they know, hey, not only are we going to be behind from a standpoint of NIH, but like, we're the, let's just be realistic about this. SMU and TCU will never, in a billion years, come anywhere near the viewership of Texas. It just won't happen.

So now, how do you even pay out in revenue sharing in order to get a roster as feasible so that we don't turn it into the MLB where it's the Yankees almost every year just about? Or it's like soccer where, Dono, you know this very well. It's the same teams every single time. Yeah, I mean, Real Madrid has won more than double the amount of Champions League than anyone else in the world. It tends to be, yeah, I mean, we talk about Champions League winners. It tends to be a lot of the same teams reappearing.

So if you see a situation where everybody agrees to one thing, and then it's like, oh, we're going to separate it by how your viewership is. I mean, what do you even do? If you're in some of these places that just naturally have less viewership, like Nebraska used to be a national power because they were to Notre Dame of their time. They had an exclusive TV deal where everybody in America could see them

when that was not the case. If you were from Florida, your granny could not watch you play if you went up to Michigan unless you were at Nebraska where they had a national TV deal. So what kind of helps close that gap? What helps make everybody say,

you know, if you're a smaller school, this makes sense for me. And then, again, what's the balance that you strike between keeping those big teams happy and not letting your smaller teams die on the bottom. Yeah, no, that's well said. All right, we got an ACC basketball tournament that starts tomorrow, an NCAA tournament coming up.

What has to happen for the ACC to get a fourth team in the big dance? You want to keep it locked right here. We're not done yet on this brand new episode of Locked on ACCC. Oh, I'm not done yet with Fandul, my friends. This is our time. March Madness is here. Fanduel is giving you the chance to get in on the action like never before. Right now, new customer.

can get $200 in bonus bets when your first $5 bet wins. That's $200 extra bucks to use on everything, from buzzer beaters to Cinderella stories and even who's cutting down the nets. I've got my eye on a few underdogs this year, and Fandual makes it easy to back them with spreads, totals, and game props. With tournament games happening almost every day, there's always something exciting to bet on. The Fandual app is simple to use,

and when I win, I get paid instantly. No waiting around. So visit Fanduil.com and get in on the college hoops action all tournament long. Thank you for making Locked on ACCC your first listen and your first watch today. Make sure for your next listen, you check out Locked on College basketball. Isaac Shade and Andy Patton, they will have your cheat sheet ready. Want to know who's going to win the ACC tournament? Well, I think we all know that one.

But want to know who's going to win the big dance? You're going to find out when you listen to Andy Patton and Isaac Shade. So, you know, the Duke Blue Devils, Kenton, are now, they were, turn to AP number one, yet there's still likely to be a number two overall seed behind Auburn because of all the metrics of the schedule, the Quad 1 wins and all that stuff. But, you know, Duke, Duke beats North Carolina. You thought early in the second half, UNC might have a chance to beat Duke and get themselves into the NCAA tournament.

But Duke went on a big scoring one as they usually do. Cooper Flag gets going and Duke ends up. And I'm sure that they enjoyed. I know that they could have done some charity. Kenton and given their top rivals an opportunity to sneak into the NCAA tournament, but I'm sure John Shire and company, they have no regrets that they essentially kept North Carolina out because for UNC and everyone else who's on the outside looking in, Kent, did they have to win the ACC tournament to actually get in or can someone maybe make a deep

run and punch their ticket? So here's the deal, right? I think that anybody that gets into the ACC or anybody who wants to get into the NCAA tournament from the ACC. That's not one of the top three seats. Duke, Louisville, Clinton has to do one thing.

They have to beat Duke. Anybody who wants to get in has to do that. And by anybody, I don't just mean anybody. One of the worst things that could possibly happen for the ACC here is if Georgia Tech or Virginia beat Duke immediately in their first game. That would be devastating.

Wake Forest and company, whoever wins between Wake Forest and the winner of whoever wins the North Carolina and either Pitt or Notre Dame game, that team would fall down to their knees, right, wherever they are in Charlotte. Because again, every team in North Carolina that is in the tournament,

don't know by that I have you. You're talking about these things for North Carolina, they're not in, okay? But every team from North Carolina that's in the tournament, has a path by beating Duke. Wake Forest, if they beat them and go to the championship, even if they lose to Louisville or Clemson, they're still in a really good position.

North Carolina, same thing. If they find a way to beat Duke, they also are in a great position. And I'll tell you, a team that is on the other side of the bracket that, I mean, yes, technically, of course, if they beat Duke, they get an automatic qualifier. SMU, the team that has fallen off the radar. that was once there.

They've got to beat Duke, which would mean they win the tournament outright. So, you know, this is a situation where, again, it shows us how the mighty have fallen. Most likely Duke's women's basketball team, congratulations to them for winning the ACC conference championship. It's looking like Duke's men is going to do it as well. Obviously, they're a betting favor by him out.

But anybody who knocks the king off, anybody who's within earshop of the NCAA tournament, that's going to be your. ticket to getting you. That's it. Anybody else here, again, Georgia Tech and Virginia beating them, that seals our fate at three unless somebody else comes out and wins this. So here's how it's going to go down as you can see for those watching the video version, for those listening to the audio, I'll describe it. Duke, Wake Forest, Louisville, and Clemson have the double by. So, you know, Duke and those other three are not even going to have to play until the quarter finals, teams that have

Bies, Georgia Tech, Virginia, UNC, Stanford, and SMU. And the teams that will be going at it Tuesday for the first round are 12-seed Notre Dame against 13-seed pit. The winner's going to take on North Carolina in the second round. You've got 10-seed Virginia Tech against 15-Cal. The winner will take on Stanford in the second round. And 11-seed Florida State against 14-seed Syracuse, the winner is going to take on. on six-seat SMU in the second round. And yeah, like you mentioned, Kenton,

you have the opportunity for the top side of that bracket, potentially if maybe a Wake Forest or a UNC, whoever emerges there. And I think UNC can beat Wake Forest, but they lost to them in the regular season. So Wake Forest has already beaten UNC prior, but whoever wins that matchup, if they beat Duke in the semifinals,

could have a shot, a big shot to make the NCAA turn. tournament and taking a look at North Carolina why, like, you know, they're, they're considered a first four out. And here's the problem with UNC's resume. And this is the case for anybody who's not in that top three in the ACC, because we know Duke is a lock for the NCAA tournament. Louisville, Locke, Clemson, a lock. Duke is going to be a number one seed, probably second overall seed, but a number one seed. Louisville and Clemson probably in the five seed range. But everybody else, even if the records may not look so bad for some of them, the resumes are really bad.

So in the case of North Carolina, I know they're 20 and 12, but 13 of their wins came against Quad 3 and Quad 4 opponents, and only one against UCLA way back in December was against a team that's likely to make the NCAA tournament in Quad 1 games, Kent, in North Carolina, one and 10 in Quad 1 games. So that would be a reason why UNC, despite 20 and 12,

not looking good to make the NCAA tournament unless they beat Duke in the ACC tournament. 20 games in the ACC used to mean something, man. Winning 20 games in the ACC used to mean something stupendous. But, yeah, I absolutely get it. They just don't have the quality of wins. However, their strength of schedule is ridiculously hard. They have had one of the tougher schedules in America. And again, an upset of Duke here,

if you upset Duke lose to Louisville in the championship, I think you're still getting in. If you upset Duke and lose to Clemson in the championship, I think you still get in. Because that means you also had to beat Wake Forest, which I think would be a quad too. So, you know, you're, again,

it's not an easy path at all, right? Because saying if you beat Duke is like, oh yeah, well, of course, if you just so happen to hit the lottery, you can get the house of your dreams. Well, yeah. It's just not very likely to happen. So, you know, I will say there's a path for the four seed and the five seed. And that's just about it in terms of not winning it all and getting in.

Nobody else, to me, has a path or a way where it's like, we can get there and lose and still be in. Outside of, of course, Duke, Louisville, Clems. All three of those teams, even if they lose their first game, they'll be all right. Everybody else, they're going to need some help. They're going to need to win this thing outright to get where they want to go in terms of going to danger. Well, get your popcorn ready for the opening round on Tuesday. You'll have a triple header on ACC Network 2 p.m. Notre Dame against Pitt, 430, Virginia Tech against Cal and 7 p.m.

Florida State against Syracuse. And, of course, the winners of those matchups will advance to take on some well-reveillance. rested teams who get opening round buys. That'll be the second round. It'll be on Wednesday. Huge thank you and shout out, as always, to Kenton Gibbs. You're an awesome job.

You can check him out on X at TGIF underscore Kenton at Lockedon Wolfpack. You can check me out at Lockedon Cains on X and Locked on Cains wherever you get your podcast. And we'll talk to you guys again tomorrow on another episode of Lockdown ACC, part of the awesome Lockdown Podcast Network. Your team every day.