Locked On ACC - Daily College Football & Basketball Podcast - How Penn State Nittany Lions Can Tackle SMU Mustangs' Cinderella Story

Starting point is 00:00:00 The SMU Mustangs have been one of the top Cinderella stories in the country, but is the other shoe about to drop this weekend when they take on Penn State on the road? You are Locked on ACC, your daily podcast on the Atlantic Coast Conference. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team, every day. Shout out to the Everydayers and thank you so much for making Lockdown ACC, your first listen and your first watch today. We're available free wherever you get your podcast. We're free on YouTube.

Starting point is 00:00:36 part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. Today's episode is brought to you by the college football playoff. The CFP is here and you don't want to miss a moment of the action. The college football playoff presented by Allstate begins with four first round games, December 20th and 21st on ESPN, ABC, TNT, and Max. And talking more about that college football playoff, I am Alex Dono from Lockdown Keynes, joined as always by Kenton Gibbs from Lockdown Wolfpack. And we had to chop it up.

Starting point is 00:01:02 Talk a little more Penn State. Zach Seiko does such a great job on Locked on Nittany Lions. And Zach, we're going to be talking about this with you on Locked on Nittney Lions as well. So we appreciate you returning the favor. This is, of course, Penn State's long-awaited CFP debut. I kind of like the format now. We're not only do we have 12 teams in, but you get to host a game to open things up. And for SMU having to go on the road to Penn State, that could be a great advantage in the Nittney Lions favor.

Starting point is 00:01:33 it's certainly going to be one as I think about this game more and more. From Penn State's point of view, it is, whether it's luck or just good fortune, Penn State certainly had to earn it, right? They went 11 and 1 in the regular season and then they lost a close one. I mean, that's why SMU's here. If SMU gets blown out by Clemson, I don't know that they get into the college football playoff. The way that that was trending 24 to 7, if that margin of victory or that margin of score

Starting point is 00:01:59 stayed that way, I don't think the committee puts SMU in. Same thing if Penn State loses to Oregon by a boatload, then maybe they don't retain that six seed. But the way that the bracket sets up, it is good fortune. Penn State still had to win the games they had to to get to that point and have the margin of outcome whatsoever. But home field, Beaver Stadium, noon Eastern time kickoff. For SMU playing most of its games around 70 degrees in Dallas, Texas leading up to this week, it was 60 or 70 degrees. The real feel on Saturday in Happy Valley is going to be. 15. It's going to be a high of 29, but it's going to be a real feel of 15 degrees.

Starting point is 00:02:37 SMU has not experienced anything like that. And I think about this matchup, SMU is a good team. I don't look at them as a group of five holdover, if you will, but I think about what they haven't seen and the close games that they have played. Penn State's going to be the best opponent. They played all season long. And now they have to deal with the atrocities of the environment here. I don't know that this sets up well for SMU when you talk about the overarching environment, the atmosphere, etc. You know, there are so many things you said there that I want to, I want to, you know, pull out my scalpel and kind of dig into a little bit. But I'll work with the last thing in terms of Penn State being the best team that SMU has played all year.

Starting point is 00:03:20 Sure, I'll concede that. Would SMU not be the best team that Penn State has beaten all year, not played beaten? I think that's fair. That's fair to say. If we're talking about wins and losses, Illinois would probably be the closest, closest team. And honestly, I think Illinois had a better case for the playoff than an Ole Miss did. I think that's a legitimate. Based, if you compare them schedules and wins, they actually had a better resume than Ole Miss, but we're not talking about that. So Illinois is the closest comparable opponent, if you will. But Penn State has played a top 10 Ohio State and was the, I think at the time, the number two team in the country. And they were on the doorstep. knocking they should have won that game. I get it. What ifs don't matter in college football. Moral and any sport moral victories don't matter. But Penn State was on the doorstep to winning that game. They should have punched it in twice from inside the five. They didn't. That was an Oregon game where they were down by 18 and they made that a one score game. I know they went for two and everything. So it was an eight point loss, but that was still a one score game against the number one team in the

Starting point is 00:04:21 country. My argument is that Penn State is better battle tested than an SMU. And SMU has not faced a team like Penn State, and now they're going into an environment that they have not seen all season. So the deck isn't exactly stacked in SMU's favor. Zach Saco is with us from Lockdown Nittany Lions. So SMU is a team that Kenton and I were somewhat bullish on them heading into the season, but I think we thought they'd maybe finish somewhere in the fifth to seventh range in the ACC. We did not imagine they would have the immediate success that they've had jumping up to the power four level. A big part of that has been making the quarterback change earlier in the season from Preston Stone to Kevin Jennings. They were treading water a little bit with Preston Stone, who was

Starting point is 00:05:07 more or less the unquestioned starter heading in. I know Jennings did provide some competition, but they felt very confident heading into the season with Stone. But since making the change to Jennings, he's had some ups and downs. They did have a rough turnover game against Duke that somehow SMU did manage to win despite losing the turnover margin at a minus six. But overall, he's been efficient. Jennings is a dual threat guy. If you allow him to get comfortable, I know Penn State will try to make sure that doesn't happen. He can really pick a part of defense. But how do you look at that matchup, Zach, heading into this one, the Penn State D matching up with an SMU offense that's been truly explosive running game with Breschard Smith and company and also through the air with Kevin

Starting point is 00:05:51 Jennings as the conductor? It starts with the chess match, the X's a nose battle between a Rhett Lashley, who, you know, has a lot of influence over the, the offense there. And Casey Woods, the actual offensive coordinator himself versus Tom Allen. And everybody's going to say, well, the advantage goes to Lashley and Woods because Tom Allen is an awful defensive coordinator. And that's just not true. Giving up to 45 points to a top five offense objectively is not, when I, when I look at that Big Ten championship game, I don't think about how, well, yes, they lost because the defense was

Starting point is 00:06:27 was absent in a sense, but that's because Oregon does not make mistakes. Dylan Gabriel's a six-year quarterback. You can't confuse him. You can't trick him. With a first-year starter and someone who did not win the job outright in Kevin Jennings, yes, you can. And you can do that in this kind of environment at Beaver Stadium where now the noise is against you.

Starting point is 00:06:47 The weather is against you. You're not acclimated. I like this SMU team a lot. They impress me. I think in a team that plays up-tempo the way they do. right? All those things just kind of factor against them. The noise. You're easier for miscommunication, right? This is, and I know that the ACC championship itself was favorable to Clemson there, but not to the extent of a Beaver Stadium. So all those things factor in. And I feel like you can confuse a Kevin Jennings. I think he's a one to two reed quarterback, but that's the way that the offense is, even if it was Preston Stone. This would be an offense that still get the football. You're making a decision because we want to go, go, go. The play, the, the, the, The play execution to the next snap of that following play is as quick. And so is the decision making by whomever the quarterback is, whether it would have been Stone or a Jennings.

Starting point is 00:07:38 So I think the same thing applies here in the fact of if you're Tom Allen and you know how to take away that first one, you can fluster Kevin Jennings to a point where he's going to make those mistakes. And I know it's not in the form of interceptions, but when he starts dancing around and he can add lib, which helps this SMU team, but it also hurts them too. So in terms of the quarterback battle in general, right? We have talked a lot about how, you know, Drew Allen is a guy. He's got a lot of experience, played a lot of football and all that good stuff. But we've also talked about the weather at high level two.

Starting point is 00:08:13 And I think that the weather in a similar way to how it will have an impact on, hey, these guys are cold. They're not going to be used to that. I think cold plus 15 mile per hour gusts also don't bowl well. for a traditional drop-back passer. So what do you make of a potential passing game event with, you know, the best player on the field, the guy who probably will have the biggest NFL career, we know both of those guys play for Penn State in that dual Carter and title war.

Starting point is 00:08:40 We know nobody's really arguing that. But when it comes down to it in terms of the passing game of both teams, do you not see this as potentially more so impacting Penn State than SMU? because like you said, SMU is right out, make a decision right now, slightly in a different vein at Penn State. I would say it's up to the, it's not so much about yes, yes, the wins, definitely, but can those guys get open? I look at SMU's cornerbacks and I say, okay, if Trey Wallace is wide open,

Starting point is 00:09:09 you don't have to be pinpoint accurate to get the football. If Tyler Warren is going to have another monster day, he just needs, he just needs a wide, if he has a wide open window, what are we, what are we talking about with the 15 mile an hour wins. I look at the secondary for Penn State, and I say they can cover longer than any SMU's cornerbacks can. And I know that's coming off of the Oregon game,

Starting point is 00:09:31 but it's not just specific to the entire secondary. It was a couple of players that were covering Tess Johnson. AJ Harris, whoever he was covering, did not have a catch. So if there's no Tess Johnson on this, on this SMU team. And when I look at SMU's cornerbacks, I think the safeties are, I mean, they lead the team in interceptions across the board, right?

Starting point is 00:09:55 That back end of the defense is really good. And that's why I look at that key match at between Tyler Warren and how they attack him from SMU's defense. But the cornerbacks, you apply all that attention to Warren. I think Trey Wallace has an advantage. I think Amari Evans has an advantage. And yes, even Julian Fleming. Those cornerbacks for SMU are the same slightly below those Penn Statewide receivers. But all the attention is going to be on Tyler Warren.

Starting point is 00:10:20 and you give them that extra half second to get open, they'll get open. It's a huge playoff matchup coming up between the Penn State Nittney Lions, who are hosting the SMU Mustangs. I want to talk about the battle in the trenches when we come back because SMU's defensive line, they are going to need to eat if they're going to have a chance to win this football game on the road.

Starting point is 00:10:38 So we'll break some of that stuff down. You're watching an epic crossover and listening. We got locked on ACC, Alex Dono and Kenton Gibbs, alongside Zach Seiko from Locked on Nittany Lions. You guys want to keep it locked. We're only getting started right here. here on the Lockdown Podcast Network. And folks, you can find all the action on this game and on the CFP at Fandul.

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Starting point is 00:12:55 Download the app today and use code locked on college to get $50 instantly after you play your first $5 lineup. Prize picks run your game. Thank you so much for making this locked on crossover. Your first listen and your first watch today. Alex Dono and Kenton Gibbs from locked on ACC, Zach Seiko from locked on nitty lions. Zach, something I'm curious about.

Starting point is 00:13:20 I know you did an episode on it this week with Bo Perbula, backup quarterback, who does have some packages in the offense. He's hitting the transfer portal. He's out. Obviously, there's a long term and a short-term conversation to be had there. But how much could he be missed in this game? He can definitely be missed from that insurance policy, if you will. Drew Aller is healthy.

Starting point is 00:13:43 He's 100%. But if you're following Penn State this season, you knew that Aller missed the second half of that Wisconsin game. Who came in? Bo Probula, who has, yes, a portion of the offense. devoted just to him, Bo Probula. Now SMU doesn't have to game plan for that or even think about it because Penn State doesn't have another quarterback. Well, and I can say they do have another player. You have to factor in for Heisman contender, Tyler Warren, to be that quarterback in that. So he's

Starting point is 00:14:10 not quarterback two in a sense, but in that wildcat package he is. And Penn State will look to that and use that just as a change up, change of pace type of formation. But Bo Perbula gives you more of an ability to throw because Tyler Warren is most likely either going to throw a quick a quick dump off pass if you will or he's going to run it and try to charge at the line of scrimmage whereas Bo Prabula if you come in that wild if he's in that wildcat package he might throw the ball deep he might throw the ball in a 15 yard in it it opens up the variety it's also I think about the emotional aspect of it there was not a single player on that team that had anything negative to say about Bo everybody basically gave him his flowers on his way out and

Starting point is 00:14:51 this wasn't a force out. Bo Probula wanted to be with the team. But James Franklin, without alluding to it directly, he alluded to it, without speaking to it directly, this was a decision that was best for Bo Probula, whether he wanted to make it or not. Go into the portal because you have two years of college football left. We'll see what your pro prospects are like, but you can start at a powerful school. You just have to go into the portal right now. It is not worth you sacrificing your future to be on this team for the playoff run as much as we want you here. James Franklin selflessly allowed Bo Probula to go into the portal. So in terms of what we're looking at for this Penn State team, and, you know, you talk about

Starting point is 00:15:34 the aspects of Tyler Warren and all that he can do. For any ACC fans who are not familiar with him, and the only thing they've heard about him is, hey, Phannon should have worn a Mackey, should have won the Mackey instead of him, which I do agree with, but I think he's a wonderful player in his own right because I watch a good amount of pit state ball this year what would you warn them about in terms of hey this is what you're going to see against SMU this is how tyler warren's going to show up i mean Tyler warren is as versatile as it gets which is why he kind of like a Travis hunter has transcended that tight end position and that's why i think yes i mean you were talking about a tight end in the top 10 for the heisman voting he had a first place vote but he finished

Starting point is 00:16:14 seventh. Harold Fanon wasn't doing that. No other tight end was getting anywhere close, which is why I don't get the, oh, well, he's the second best tight end in the All-America. No, Tyler Warren can do anything you ask him to. He can catch the football as a tight end. As a wide receiver, you don't have to line them up in the formation. You can line them up in the slot. You can line them up out wide. He's a matchup nightmare for safeties, cornerbacks, linebackers. You can't just bring him down by going low. He can hurdle you. He can snap the football for crying out loud. He can line up. up as a center in a misaligned formation and disguise it that way. So it gives Andy Codle-Nicki

Starting point is 00:16:49 all these different scenarios that he can work with and get creative because Tyler Warren is so versatile to an extent that you can just develop unorthodox plays to get the offense going to get him open, but he also can win one-on-one. You can't just cover him. And even the best of the best safeties are still going to need to bracket them defensively. Yeah. And on that note, if Drew Aller has time to throw, Penn State can pick a part. part SMU's back end. We, you know, we've seen it throughout the year. SMU stacks up a lot better at the line of scrimmage statistics-wise this season. Their defensive line has played some excellent ball. Their top five in the country in both sacks and top five in the country in

Starting point is 00:17:29 rushing defense. So, Zach, it seems like Penn State's offensive line has been trending up as of late. How do you see that matchup against SMU's defensive front? I like this one a lot, but I definitely have my concerns. So it's nice to see Penn State put together its best line of work among the offensive line and the ground game because those were my biggest question marks. I don't look at Penn State surrendering 45 points to Oregon and saying, well, now I have all these concerns about the defense. No, Oregon's just that good. And SMU offensively is not that is not the same as an Oregon. And you're playing at home.

Starting point is 00:18:04 I said my opinion would be a lot different if this was a neutral site game because that's where SMU is a quality football. team. They did not get here by accident. They did enough to be the 11th seed. But when looking at this offensive line versus defensive line matchup, SMU might have a better defensive front than Oregon. Just honestly, they have so many different players that can wreak havoc. I look at Elijah Roberts, for example, as an equivalent to Abdul Carter. And Drew Shelton versus Elijah Roberts, it's almost, if Abdul Carter has a much better day than Sabian Bird, you have to look at, okay, how much ground can Elijah Roberts cover against a Drew Shelton. Drew Shelton is okay, has been above average at times,

Starting point is 00:18:46 but he's not this elite blind side left tackle for Drew Allen in this Penn State offense. Elijah Roberts will win those battles more often than not, and that is a big concern because you do need, because that's where SMU secondary is helped out or masked in a sense. It's almost a masquerade because they don't give up a lot of big plays. This SMU defense is really good, but it's because that front six, front seven, because they alternate different.

Starting point is 00:19:12 Those guys up front, the front half of the defense, carry and create so much of the work that allows the secondary of SMU to get away with things. So if you do give Drew Aller that second, that second and a half to make the play, make the reads and a wide receiver or Tyler Warren to get open, then it is going to be an issue. So I wonder how Penn State's going to approach that because I don't know that I trust Drew Shelton versus Elijah Roberts every single time. you might need to chip. Maybe you don't do it with Tyler Warren,

Starting point is 00:19:40 but maybe a Ketron Allen or a Nicholas Singleton stays in for extra protection. You know, we're about to do our official predictions here. But before we get there, I want you to give me two scenarios. SMU wins if Penn State wins if. Let's hear it. SMU, I mean, the biggest things that hold this SMU team back are the fact that they commit a bunch of turnovers.

Starting point is 00:20:03 They average 1.7. Because, and we've seen games where they'll turn the ball over six times like they did against Duke. And I know that's condensed to a couple of games there. But they are prone to the turnover. And against a team like Penn State, you're going to, even though Penn State hasn't forced the most turnovers this season. And that's not a go figure, you know, Duke, Manny Diaz, even though Manny Diaz, even though Manny Diaz isn't there anymore, Penn State against this SMU offense can manufacture two, maybe even three turnovers, maybe even more. We'll see.

Starting point is 00:20:32 And then you have the weather element. So if Kevin Jennings can not give up a fumble, not throwing a costly interception, saw in that Clemson game that, yes, they were some lucky, lucky turnovers there, but it set Clemson up with such an easy short field to work with. And then the turnovers. If SMU can somehow just play a little more disciplined football, not give up 80, 90, 100 yards in terms of penalties, then you're already giving Penn State seven points right there, maybe even more. and then I would give Penn State an additional seven points, hypothetically, because of that home field advantage. So those are the two things for SMU because they do a lot of things well. Getting pressure on Drew Aller, kind of maybe matching the turnovers too because where SMU gives the ball away, they get those turnovers back.

Starting point is 00:21:17 So they kind of offset each other. For Penn State, you just kind of need to capitalize on those mistakes. I feel like SMU can beat themselves to an extent. For Penn State, being able to run the football, being able to play keep away from this SMU offense, because I have said they are persistent. They do not go away. Just because if Penn State were going into the fourth quarter with a two-score lead does not mean squat. It does not mean anything against this SMU team because of how fast they play.

Starting point is 00:21:43 And if they get into rhythm, they will keep up and possibly pull ahead if you're not careful. So if Penn State can establish the ground game and at least sustain a couple of those 12, maybe even a 15 play drive, that's how you keep SMU from getting into rhythm. We'll get into our official predictions on the other side. And I have a feeling Kenton thinks the eight and a half point spread is a little bit too wide in Penn State's favor. We'll talk about it. You guys want to keep it locked right here. Crossover event, we got locked on ACCC and locked on Nittany Lions joining forces right here on the Lockdown Podcast Network.

Starting point is 00:22:18 We'll be right back. And all this to say, you can watch SMU Penn State, all the other playoff matchups, Clemson against Texas and the ACCC, well, not in the ACC. but the other ACC team in action. You can watch all of this with the college football playoff because it is back, my friends, with the new expanded 12-team format. It's guaranteed to be bigger and better than ever,

Starting point is 00:22:42 bringing you all the hard-hitting and high-flying excitement you love. TNT's coverage of the college football playoff begins December 21st, starting with a college football playoff show presented by AT&T at 11 a.m. Eastern, leading into our first matchup, Southern Methodist University Mustangs, battling the Penn State Nittney Lions at noon. Then the Clemson Tigers looked to upset the Texas Longhorns and a show down at 4 p.m.

Starting point is 00:23:03 Don't miss a moment of the action. Watch the college football playoff presented by Allstate Live on TNT, True TV, TBS, and Max. Thank you for making this Lockdown crossover, your first listen and your first watch. And by the way, make sure you're checking out all of our other shows.

Starting point is 00:23:23 Kenton and I, of course, we co-host Lockdown ACC, but Kenton and Grayson do an awesome job on Lockdown Wolfpack. I host Lockdown, Kniton, Kain. Zach hosts Lockdown, Nittney, Lion. So much great info across all of these shows. Kenton, I'll start with you on the prediction because I know you see this one as being closer than the odds makers are saying with Penn State favored by eight and a half at home. How do you see this one playing out and will SMU pull off the upset? I got this.

Starting point is 00:23:50 You know, I look at this game and I say to myself, James Franklin is who he is. He will always, I'm going to tell you something, every Penn State fan is going to ask for James Franklin to be there. buried their funeral so he could let him down one last time while they're exiting life. That's who he is in big games. That's who he's shown himself to be. And even still, with that being said, it is extremely hard for me to pick against a cast that guy in Kobe King. You know, I think that their lineback and core over there is phenomenal.

Starting point is 00:24:22 I think they'll give for Sharks Smith some problems. But I think this game comes down to one very simple thing that many people are bringing up as like a big deal and people like to act like it isn't, but it really is. The weather. The weather will be a big factor because I think that, I think SMU gets in position to tie this game up and take it to overtime late, but they miss a field goal. Give me Penn State 24, 21. What about you, Zach? What's your prediction? I have Penn State winning comfortably from the fact of there will be an extra uncharacteristic fumble, an extra uncharacteristic interception, even though Kenning Jennings hasn't turned the ball over through the air that much, it's that he can get reckless and careless

Starting point is 00:25:08 with the football. Look, I think it's those hard hits that I didn't play football long enough to know, okay, how much the weather has an impact. But I got to assume when it's the real feel of 15 degrees and then those wind gusts, as Kenton has mentioned, a 15 miles an hour on average. So they're going to get heavier throughout the day. My point being is that Rashard Smith taking a hit from whether it's Kobe King or a Tony Rojas, so I'm glad you showed some respect to Penn State's linebackers there. That's going to show up in ways that are going to affect the outcome of the game. And the same thing with Kevin Jennings.

Starting point is 00:25:42 If Abdul Carter gets a free hit on the quarterback, I look at that matchup between Carter and Savion Bird, that first hit to Kevin Jennings is going to be a real wake-up call And it might change the way that he approaches the game. And it's, okay, I can't be as elusive and ad lib. The cold impacts SMU above all out. Certainly it's going, you know, Penn State's not going to be able to do everything that it wants. But playing in Dallas, Texas, playing in fairly warmer weather throughout the season,

Starting point is 00:26:12 and then Penn State's been practicing outside for as long because they can get used to the environment and the elements. They don't even have to play in games necessarily. It's the practice and the buildup and being outside for three, four hours on any given day that they have that advantage. So I go Penn State 35 SMU 21. I don't think SMU is out of it. But in the instance where they were able to come back and score with ease against Clemson, I don't think that's going to be the case here against Penn State. They'll be in position to possibly cover.

Starting point is 00:26:42 I just don't think they do. I think they're going to come close to covering. And the weather and the road environment are the primary reasons why I think SMU is going to fall just short of that. I'm going Penn State 30 SMU 21. I also, I feel like the weather is going to cause a few less possessions because I think both teams are going to establish the running game. One of the reasons why I see the game is being a little bit lower scoring. The over under is set at 53 and a half, so I've got a total of 51, so I've got it close but no cigar. I think SMU is going to play a respectable game and show that they belong on the big stage.

Starting point is 00:27:19 And my pick might be different if this was a neutral site game as we're usually accustomed to in postseason play. I actually like that this has more of an NFL playoff style feel to it, that you have teams hosting games throughout this first round. So that's the primary reason why I give Penn State the edge. But I think SMU is going to be able to leave Beaver Stadium with their heads held high. We appreciate everyone for taking time in this locked on crossover event. Make sure you're following everybody. Zach Seiko does an awesome job on Locked on Nittany Lions. Kenton Gibbs and I not only co-hosts locked on ACC, but I host Locked on Caines.

Starting point is 00:27:55 he co-hosts Lockdown Wolfpack. And let's have a great weekend of playoffs coming up. Hope everyone enjoys the games. And we'll talk to you again next time on another episode of Lockdown ACC right here on the Lockdown Podcast Network. Your team every day.

Locked On ACC - Daily College Football & Basketball Podcast - How Penn State Nittany Lions Can Tackle SMU Mustangs' Cinderella Story

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