Locked On ACC - Daily College Football & Basketball Podcast - How WRONG was the media about ACC Football this season? | Clemson & Miami's roads to championship

Starting point is 00:00:00 There's a reason you play the games, right? How wrong did we in the media get our preseason ACC football selections? You are Locked on ACC, your daily podcast on the Atlantic Coast Conference. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. Shout out to the Everydayers and thank you so much for making Locked on ACC your first listen and your first watch today. We're available free wherever you get your podcast. We're free on YouTube. We're part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day.

Starting point is 00:00:39 Today's episode is brought to you by Fandul. You can start the season with a big return on Fandual. New customers can place a $5 bet, and you'll get started with $150 in bonus bets if you win your first $5 bet. Visit Fandual.com to get started. On this episode of Lockdown, ACC, we'll talk about the top week 10 matchups coming up in ACC football this weekend. A couple of pivotal games are going to be played.

Starting point is 00:01:02 You've got four teams that are still unbeaten. in conference. Only two of them can play for the ACC championship game in December. So between Miami, Clemson, SMU, and Pitt, who's got the easiest road to cement their spot? And what happens if three of them finish undefeated in the conference? But first, by the way, I'm Alex Dono from Lockdown Canes, flying solo for this episode. Our guy Kenton Gibbs from Lockdown Wolfpack will be back with us next time around. Kenton and I were both among the roughly 200 media members who attended the ACC kickoff media conference preseason in Charlotte in late July. And we had the opportunity to vote one through 17, make our picks on who's going to finish where in the Atlantic Coast Conference.

Starting point is 00:01:51 And since we're now about two-thirds through the season, most teams have played eight out of their 12 regular season games. I wanted to revisit what we got right and what we got wrong. And again, I was one of about 200 votes. Kenton was one of about 200 votes. Neither of us actually had the team that was picked preseason number one in that number one spot, but I had them second place. I think Kenton had them second or third. You go back and look at what was predicted preseason.

Starting point is 00:02:27 The Florida State Seminoles received 81 first place votes, almost a runaway. Clemson was 55 first place votes, so they were 26 votes behind. But the Florida State Seminoles were practically a consensus to repeat as ACC champs. And instead of being in that first place spot, Florida State with a 1-6 conference record is in reality.

Starting point is 00:02:52 16th out of 17th right now, only ahead of the Cal Golden Bears. So how did we get this one so wrong? First and foremost, I don't think anyone really imagine that this Murphy's law would play out with Florida State's offense the way that it has. You know, I mean, nobody had any illusions that DJ O'Yung Lale was going to be top quarterback in the country or anything like that.

Starting point is 00:03:20 You know, Cam Ward was picked as the preseason favorite for player of the year in the ACC. So far, it's seemingly playing out that way for Cam Ward, who's right in the Heisman conversation. But I mean, everyone thought, hey, even if DJ O'Yungaleli is not great, very experienced, had a pretty good year at Oregon State last year. He's familiar with the conference having played at Clemson. It wasn't great at Clemson. There's a reason why they, you know, essentially picked a young Cade Club Nick Young at the time over him.

Starting point is 00:03:48 And he, you know, went out to play at a different conference for a different team. But everyone thought DJ, DJ would be able to execute Florida State's offense. good offensive line, we thought, a really good running game, we thought, hasn't played out that way. You knew that Florida State had a lot of youth and unproven commodities at wide receiver. They lost their top two guys last year, Johnny Wilson and Keon Coleman, but I don't think anyone imagine that they wouldn't be able to hold on to footballs. It's been a really rough time for Florida State's receiving court. And early on in the season, the defense has picked things up in recent weeks, but the offense,

Starting point is 00:04:30 completely toothless, and a lot of times the defenses looked lost. So many negative plays. You know, Florida's say, I say their defenses played better. They've only managed three takeaways all season long, dead last in America, 133rd in FBS, it turnover is forced. And so it really was Murphy's Law, you know, for a team that had good vibes with their 13 and 0 start last year, a lot of, I would say, sympathy for not being selected for one of those four playoff spots, a very tumultuous off season with all the stuff going on off the field,

Starting point is 00:05:03 like suing the ACC, haven't had a real substantial update on how that's going in a while. But one of the biggest falls from Grace that I've witnessed for a team that not only won the conference last year, but was pretty substantially chosen to repeat as champions, safe to say the media got that one dead wrong. And even though I didn't vote for Florida State first, I had them second. I think Kenton had them either second or third. I did not imagine things we go this poorly for them. So after Florida State who was picked to win the conference, Clemson, Clemson came in second. And that one's looking about right. Clemson's either going to be, I think, first or second in the ACC. Although, again, it is a little muddy because you've got, you know, four unbeaten teams in conference right now.

Starting point is 00:05:51 But I think Clemson's going to end up making it to that ACC championship game, if not winning it. So if anything, Kenton and I were probably the ones who underestimated Clemson. I picked Clemson to finish third, so I wasn't far off on, you know, where they sit right now. But I didn't give enough credit to their offense, right? We knew their defense was going to be good. And it's outside of that opening. And their defense actually was good, even in the opening game against Georgia. The offense was a hot mess in that opening game.

Starting point is 00:06:19 But Clemson's offense ever since then has exceeded my expectation. So I think we got that one right, you know, whereabouts picking Clemson. Second, Miami picked third. I mean, I think Miami for the most, although, you know, there's been some controversial finishes and all that. I think Miami has either lived up to or exceeded most expectations with their eight-no start. They're currently, you know, tied atop the ACC standings right now. Technically, Clemson is in first in the ACC because they've played more conference games than most anyone else. But Miami is right up there.

Starting point is 00:06:51 The next one that we all got very wrong was NC State. They came in fourth in this prediction. This was another Murphy's Law type of situation. Now, at least NC State, they come off a by week, but prior to that, they have had problems with their offense, their original starting quarterback, Grayson McCall, had a rough start to the season, suffered a concussion. He's actually medically retired since then.

Starting point is 00:07:19 NC State's been breaking in a new quarterback who's a true freshman. There's a lot of positivity about C.J. Bailey, but he's just, he's not ready to lead that team right now. They've had more issues in the defense than we expected. So NC State was picked to finish fourth. In reality, NC State is 13th right now with a one and three conference record, same conference record as Boston College and North Carolina. So that is unfortunately a team that has fallen short. Louisville picked to finish fifth kind of got that one right

Starting point is 00:07:52 I mean that's basically the way that it's been playing out for Louisville so far I was actually really really pleased to see that big comeback that they put on Boston College last week because in certain situations Louisville has just underperformed they've made a couple too many mistakes I mean you know they played very well

Starting point is 00:08:10 against Miami in a shootout they put up a lot of yardage against Notre Dame They just made too many mistakes in that game. They had a chance to win that game against the Fighting Irish. So that's a team that in some of their losses have kind of played below their talent level. So picking them fifth seems about right. In the reality of the standings, Louisville is sixth. So they're right near that spot at the moment they were picked to finish.

Starting point is 00:08:38 Virginia Tech was picked to finish six. Pretty much dead on with that as well. The preseason poll has them at six. right now they're in fifth in reality. Virginia Tech, by the way, I'm not completely ruling them out. Now, any team with one loss in conference, in their case, they got one ACC loss, any team with one loss or two losses very much behind the eight ball right now. But if you start to get some cannibalization near the top, because, you know, Clemson still has to play Pitt, Pitt still has to play SMU. That's happening this weekend. If some of the results of those games are a little bit, top

Starting point is 00:09:15 Turvey, Virginia Tech still has a puncher's chance in this thing. And that's another team that Virginia Tech is outside of that Boston college game where Bayshalt Tutin ran for like 600 yards. It was 288 in reality. There was a lot of yards he ran for. Outside of that, you feel like Virginia Tech hasn't quite played up to their talent level. So maybe the best is still to come for them.

Starting point is 00:09:36 Other preseason picks, SMU was picked to finish seven. They have outperformed that expectation, no question about it. SMU. I know that they probably should have played better against Duke this past weekend, but good teams find a way to win. That's what SMU did in that one. So I think they were a little bit underrated preseason. North Carolina picked to finish eighth, you know, average. They've had obviously a lot of issues, but they're off to just a one and three start in conference. I don't think we imagine that their quarterback situation would start off as poorly or would their defense be as bad as it is. In fact, the defense has been the issue. They've actually

Starting point is 00:10:14 been, you know, playing much better offensively this year. Georgia Tech was picked to finish ninth. They're outperforming that a little bit, although they need to get Haynes King back healthy. Cal was picked to finish 10th. Now, Cal is dead last in the ACC right now with an 0 and 4 conference record, but they've been so close in every conference game that they've played, that's a team that I, you know, based on the talent level, the way they've actually played, they've kind of underperform.

Starting point is 00:10:42 I don't feel like Cal is the worst team in the conference, although they did lose to Florida State, so maybe that's case in point right there. So Cal was maybe slightly overrated preseason. Duke picked to finish 11th. They've outperformed that Syracuse pick to finish 12th. I know that their last game was an absolute horror show against Pitt, but Syracuse is better than the 12th team in the conference. And Pitt, Pitt was picked to finish 13th.

Starting point is 00:11:09 They're undefeated right now. coming off a big conference victory against Syracuse. So Pitt may be the most under, it is the most underrated team on this list. Boston College picked to finish 14th, Wake Forest pick to finish 15th, Virginia 16th, Stanford 17th. So the ones that we really got wrong, Pitt was grossly underrated, Florida State grossly overrated, NC State grossly overrated. And when we come back, got to talk about these four teams that are still unbeaten in

Starting point is 00:11:40 conference. When it comes to Miami, Clemson, SMU, and Pitt, how is this going to shake out? And what happens if three of them who don't play each other all end up finishing with a perfect eight and no ACC record? You guys want to keep it locked right here. We're only getting started on this brand new episode of Lockdowne ACC. Guys, I'm so happy that we have Roy on board with us to give ourselves and each other an opportunity to make a difference in the NIL space. It's time to recognize the Roy player of the week. So far this season, we've pooled over $20,000 to support players on Roy. Micro deposits lead to massive change. With the Roy app, you can direct your support to the athletes you love, ensuring that all funds go to the specific player you choose. Unlike collectives,

Starting point is 00:12:29 you know exactly where your support is going. And you even receive exclusive content like personal videos and updates after the season. The best part, it's risk-free. If the athlete transfers or doesn't deliver the content, you get your money back. This week, we're proud to support Miami running back Mark Fletcher. 71 rushing yards and a touchdown last week. And by the way, Fletcher, Kenton and I talked about this on our last episode. He lost his father, Mark Fletcher, senior, late last week. So the absolute courage that Fletcher showed even playing in that game.

Starting point is 00:13:04 And he talked afterwards about how that's exactly what his dad would have wanted him to do. I was just so moved by it and I'm so sad and I've been praying for the Fletcher family. And so, yeah, we're supporting Mark Fletcher Jr. This week. We just pitched in $100. We love for you to join us. Even $10 makes a difference. Let's show Mark Fletcher the love and keep him connected to Miami.

Starting point is 00:13:26 Remember, pay today, celebrate tomorrow. Your support sets your team up for success. Plus, don't miss out on Roy's exciting giveaway. Win two tickets to a game in November. Just download Roy, create an account, and enter referral code, lock, on and you're entered. Already on Roy, any contribution to an athlete's campaign also gets you entered automatically. No purchase necessary. Void were prohibited. Download Roy now and join the NIL game with no subscriptions and no fees. And be sure to check us out on Instagram, Facebook and

Starting point is 00:13:56 X at Roy underscore. Return on you for more info. Thank you so much for making this episode of Lockdown ACC, your first listen and your first watch today. We're available free wherever you get your podcast. We're free on YouTube. We're part of the on podcast network. Your team every day. All right. So you have right now at the top of the ACC standings. You got Clemson, who's 5 and 0 in conference. Now remember, for just the strictly ACC standings to decide who plays in the conference championship game, the overall record is disregarded. Only the conference record starts. So it is possible that even if, you know, Miami and, you know, if Miami were to finish undefeated, they could potentially,

Starting point is 00:14:44 get left out of the ACC championship game because of the tiebreakers that come in with the conference play. So the overall records do not count. Only the conference record does, I should say. But you've got Clemson at 5 and O in conference. Miami and SMU are both 4 and O in ACC play. Pitt is 3 and O. So you want to take a look at the schedules that are remaining for these teams and where they could trip up the rest of the way. Okay, let's start with Clemson. So Clemson left this year. They're home against Louisville on November 2nd this weekend. That's going to be a tough game.

Starting point is 00:15:22 Clemson favored to win that one at home. They're favored by. Let me take a look at that line. So I don't, 10.5 points. So Clemson is favored to get it done at home. They probably will, but that's not an easy game. Louisville has not been an easy out for anyone so far this season. Things get even tougher, I would argue,

Starting point is 00:15:40 after that Louisville game. So Clemson plays at Virginia Tech on November 9th. The time is still to be determined. Whether that's a day or a night game is going to make a big difference, folks, because anyone who's ever been out to Blacksburg for a night game, especially a Thursday night, that will not be a Thursday game. It's a Saturday game. But if you've ever been to Blacksburg for a night game,

Starting point is 00:16:01 you know it's completely different environment. The ante is up like a thousand percent there, but still a tough road environment. win regardless. So that could be a tricky game for Clemson. But the one that I think we all have circled now based on how good they just looked, especially defensively, with their three-pick-six performance in dismantling Syracuse, you have to wonder if Pitt can Pitt play spoiler potentially for Clemson? Because Clemson on November 16th is going to have to go on the road to number 18 pit. That's Clemson's final conference game of the year. Again,

Starting point is 00:16:40 I think Clemson will be at least a slight favorite in that game. I see Clemson favored in every game remaining on their schedule, but there are some landmines there. There are some potential landmines there. Clemson's final two games of the season, both non-conference. They host the Citadel and they host South Carolina at the end of the season. So the three conference games left for them, home against Louisville at Virginia Tech, at Pitt.

Starting point is 00:17:02 That's maybe the toughest or the co-tuffest of the schedules remaining for the teams that are unbeaten right now in the ACC. I think Miami, Miami probably has the easiest road left. And again, I'm not saying they can't lose. Believe me, as someone who's covered Miami football for decades, anything can happen to the hurricanes and ACC play, anything can happen in college football. But I would argue Miami has, on paper, the easiest road left.

Starting point is 00:17:30 They're home against Duke this Saturday, a 12 noon game. Now, you know, Duke, their defense is very tricky. The Manny Diaz connection, he used to coach at Miami. So there's going to be some weird vibes there with Diaz, you know, returning to Hard Rock Stadium for the first time. I don't know if Duke's offense is good enough to hang with Miami, but their defense has been very good. Will Miami's offense be able to kind of amp up the passing game again?

Starting point is 00:17:56 Or will they beat Duke on the ground? Could be a tricky game. The odds makers don't think so, though, because the hurricanes are actually, and I think this line is probably too big. 21.5 point favorites now. It's a big number for Miami. But, you know, Duke could be tricky, but it's probably a win for Miami. Miami at Georgia Tech on November 9th.

Starting point is 00:18:17 The health of Haynes King is going to be pivotal there for Georgia Tech. I'm sure revenge is going to be on Miami's mind after we all remember what happened last year when they hosted Georgia Tech. Miami hosts Wake Forest on November 23rd. And Miami plays at Syracuse on November 30th. So, again, except maybe for Wake Forest. any of those games could be tricky. I expect Syracuse will probably play better offensively than they played this last week against Pitt.

Starting point is 00:18:45 But I would argue Miami probably has the most favorable schedule left out of the remaining unbeatens in conference. Let's take a look at SMU. So for SMU, this weekend, it's going to be massive. They host the 18th ranked Pitt Panthers. Pitt, you know, we already talked about Pitt earlier. Pitt not only has a chance to play spoiler against Clemson, Pitt has a chance to play spoiler this weekend against the Mustangs.

Starting point is 00:19:09 That is going to be a massive game. If I take a look at the number there, remember, SMU is at home. They're favored by seven and a half. Now, for, you know, I think folks are still not completely buying in on PID, but they're lineback in court. They call them the sharks for a reason. You know, Eli Holstein, the numbers have taken a little bit of a dip, but he's played with so much poise.

Starting point is 00:19:31 A quarterback this year as a redshirt freshman, Des Reed is such a weapon for their offense. Pitt definitely has an opportunity. I understand why SMU is favored in that game, though. Then SMU is at home against Boston College. Should be a win, but Boston College has been kind of a Jekyll and Hyde team this year. They're capable of beating just about anybody in the conference or they could lose just about anybody. SMU then plays at Virginia, which is probably a win, but could be tricky. Then they play home against Cal to wrap up the season. And Cal, obviously Cal is 0 and 4 in the ACC. Cal historically, you know, tends to play up and down to the level of competition,

Starting point is 00:20:12 but that's a game that SMU should win. And that's a matchup between, you know, two of the newcomers in the conference. But the Pitt game is going to be really tough for them. Let's take a look at Pitt's remaining schedule. Now, again, Pitt right now, undefeated overall, undefeated in conference. It's going to be really tough for them to stay that way, okay? Pitt still has left, of course, at number 20 SMU this Saturday, 8 p.m. Primetime game on ACC network.

Starting point is 00:20:41 That's going to be very difficult. Home against Virginia. Home against Clemson, who's number 11 right now. They're going to be underdogs in that game at Louisville and at Boston College. That's a gauntlet the rest of the way for Pitt. You know what? If Pitt, if Pitt finds a way to finish 12 and 0 with that remaining schedule, they deserve all the praise and they deserve all of us to eat crow.

Starting point is 00:21:05 You know, they were picked 13th preseason in the ACC. They can make all of us eat crow there. So I think Miami has, relatively speaking, the easiest road with their remaining games. Now, folks ask what would happen? And obviously not all four of these teams can stay unbeaten because, you know, a couple of them play each other. Pitt plays against both SMU and Clemson. But what would happen if Miami, SMU, and Clemson all go undebted? beaten because none of those three play each other. The tiebreaker for which two get into the

Starting point is 00:21:36 conference championship game would depend on the ACC winning percentage of their opponents. And as of right now, Clemson's opponents have the highest winning percentage, Miami's second and SMU's third. So obviously it's all going to depend on who the opponents win and lose to for the next four weeks. But if you were going to, if you were going to pick the two right now to be in Charlotte. It would be Miami and Clemson or Clemson in Miami. And I got like, it would be cool if the ACC has three unbeaten teams in conference, but at the same time, it would be bad optics, because if at the end of the year, because obviously bad optics last year when the ACC had an undefeated conference champion who didn't get into the CFP, somehow that made the ACC look

Starting point is 00:22:25 bad when it really should have made the committee look bad in my opinion. But now if the ACC has to leave out somebody just because they lost some tiebreaker that they had no control over, especially if it were Miami, because Miami has a chance to go not only undefeated in the conference, but undefeated overall. Can you imagine if a 12 and O Miami has to sit out the conference championship games so that an 11 and 1 Clemson and an 11 and 1 SMU play one another? And actually, Clemson could be 10 and 2 because they have non-conference games left. So it would be weird if an undefeated Miami, if they go undefeated, of course, no guarantees there. If that were to happen, that would be pretty bizarre. But with all that said, it would be bad optics for the ACC. So maybe you'd prefer if only two teams go on beating a conference.

Starting point is 00:23:13 But I want to talk about the big games coming up this weekend. There are seven football games involving ACC teams. We're not done yet. Alex Dono here. Keep it locked on this new episode of Locked on ACC. I know you keep it at locked at the fan duel. Guys, it would be football season, college season, two-thirds through the way, NFL season, reaching that halfway point soon. Get ready to tackle the NFL action with America's number one sports book.

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Starting point is 00:24:10 Never waste a hunch and make every moment more with Fanduel, official sportsbook partner of the NFL. Thank you for making Locked on ACC, your first listen and your first watch today. Make sure for your next listen, you check out Locked on college football. Spencer McLaughlin does an awesome job taking you through all the big games, all the big storylines. whether it be conference realignment rumors, the Heisman trophy race, conference championship primer, college football playoff predictions.

Starting point is 00:24:42 I was on with Spencer earlier this week talking about Miami. So make sure you check out Locked on College Football Free, wherever you get your podcast and free on YouTube. So, all right, games this weekend in the ACC that could be pivotal towards the ACC championship, 12 noon on Saturday. You've got six and two Duke. at 8 and O Miami. This is a game Miami should win.

Starting point is 00:25:09 We mentioned 21 and a half point favorites, potential landmine game. Big thing you're going to watch out for is Miami's offensive line. They gave up several sacks against Florida State last week. Duke, very aggressive at the line of scrimmage. Manny Diaz loves to blitz. They love to bring pressure. They're very aggressive.

Starting point is 00:25:28 So Miami's offensive line, which has overall been one of the better units in the country. They were a little bit off last week. They have to protect Cam Ward better. And then you have to wonder for Duke's offense, can Duke score enough to keep up with the hurricanes? Because that's the area. Duke's defense has been stellar, great at,

Starting point is 00:25:48 great at sacking quarterbacks, great at forcing negative plays, turnovers, but their offense has been hit or miss. Now, they managed to beat Florida State a couple of weeks ago with only about 180 yards of total. offense because their defense was so disruptive. At the same time, you look at what happened to Duke against SMU last week. They became the first team in, I think, 15 years or so to lose a game despite being plus

Starting point is 00:26:14 six in the turnover margin. Six takeaways to none, and they still lost to SMU. Part of that special teams issues, they missed or had a blocked kick on three different occasions last week. So, you know, the odds are against Duke, but that's. going to be a huge game because Duke, you know, they got two losses in conference. So it'd be difficult for the Blue Devils to get into the ACC championship picture. They would need a lot of luck.

Starting point is 00:26:39 But if they were to beat Miami, they would throw chaos into the top of the ACC. Stanford at NC State, no impact on the ACC standings there. Virginia Tech at Syracuse, Syracuse, two losses in the ACC, Virginia Tech with one. The Hokies have a puncher's chance, okay? The Hokies with one conference loss. They have an opportunity there at Syracuse. They are four-point favorites on the road. Kyron Drones, I don't believe, has played his best game of the season yet.

Starting point is 00:27:09 I really have faith that he's going to put it together at some point. They've got a dynamic running game, as we know. So that game can impact the ACC championship game because Virginia Tech. Syracuse might be out of it at two and two. Virginia Tech at 3 and 1 in conference, they still have a puncher's chance there. North Carolina at Florida State, no real impact on the ACC standings. Number 11, Clemson, hosting Louisville, huge impact. I mean, Louisville, they're probably out of it at three and two in the ACC,

Starting point is 00:27:41 but they can play spoiler against Clemson. And I would say the biggest overall game of the weekend, you know, even bigger than Duke at Miami, because this one has two teams that have an opportunity to play for the ACC Championship, of 18th ranked Pitt at 20th ranked SMU. SMU, I think we all know they probably have to play better than they did last week against Duke if they want to keep winning. So we'll see if they are up for the challenge. But yeah, that game is going to have a massive impact. And you feel like if Pittsburgh can pull off the upset and they're seven and a half point underdogs,

Starting point is 00:28:17 if they can pull off the upset, again, you feel like everything we thought about the ACC preseason gets turned upside down. and then heck, if Pitt can pull off this upset, you really circle Pitt against Clemson later in the season because they, again, can play spoiler and get themselves right in that ACC championship race as well. So it's going to be an exciting weekend. It's going to be exciting a remainder of the week of shows for us. We're going to have the ACC squad coming up later on this week. My guy Jackson Holzer, he's going to have to answer for Kyle McCord's performance last week. We'll talk to you guys next time on an other. episode of Lockdown ACC. We are part of the awesome lockdown podcast network. Your team every day.

Locked On ACC - Daily College Football & Basketball Podcast - How WRONG was the media about ACC Football this season? | Clemson & Miami's roads to championship

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