Locked On ACC - Daily College Football & Basketball Podcast - Jimbo Fisher Gives Ominous Warning On The ACC's Future | Josh Pate Calls ACC "Cooked"

Starting point is 00:00:00 A former national championship head football coach in the ACC has offered an ominous warning about the league's future. You are Locked on ACC, your daily podcast on the Atlantic Coast Conference. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. Shout out to the everydayers for making Locked on ACC. Your first listen and your first watch on this Monday, we are available free wherever you get your podcast. We're free on YouTube. We are part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team. team every day. I am Alex Dono for Lockdown Caines. He is Kenton Gibbs from Locked on Wolfpack.

Starting point is 00:00:42 Today's episode is brought to you by LinkedIn. These days, every new potential hire can feel like a high stakes wager for your small business. That's why LinkedIn jobs helps you find the right people for your team faster and for free. Post your job for free at LinkedIn.com slash Lockdown College. Terms and conditions apply. On this episode, we will talk about the imminent house versus CAA antitrust settlement, which a lot of the smaller leagues, even smaller than the ACC are not very happy about the taxation that they are incurring from this. We will talk about the factors that have led to the ACC being in jeopardy. And someone who does say the conference is in jeopardy, Kenton, I want to start with this.

Starting point is 00:01:27 Former Texas A&M, but also former Florida state head coach Jimbo Fisher, won a national championship with the Seminoles back in 2013. He talked about the landscape of college football. He was on Sirius XM radio late last week, and he was basically discussing the dominance and the widening gap between the Power 2 or the SEC and the Big 10 and everyone else, including the other schools that we call or the other leagues we call Power 4, which include the ACC and the Big 12. He says, here's what's happening.

Starting point is 00:02:00 All of your mid-majors and a lot of your mid-majors. and a lot of your not mid-majors, I'm going to say some of your ACC, Big 12, old Pac-12, some of those leagues, they're becoming glorified junior colleges, Fisher said. And some of those teams used to battle for playoffs and have great teams. They took that three-star guy or that four-star guy

Starting point is 00:02:18 you missed out on, and they developed him into a heck of a player and became a great player at their school. Now, Kenton, here's one we can dissect, though, because what Jimbo Fisher cited as a specific example and how the landscape is changing. Maybe he didn't pick the best specific player to use as the example, but he's talking about with, you know, the not only, of course, he's not even talking about the revenue gap from TV deals,

Starting point is 00:02:42 but he's talking about the new transfer rules, which are unlimited, the new NIL situation where obviously the golden rule, he who has the gold makes the rules. And Jimbo, he used Patrick Mahomes as an example. He played for Texas Tech for four years. He said, how about Patrick Mahomes at Texas Tech? would he have ever stayed at Texas Tech? Somebody would have come and got him, Fisher said.

Starting point is 00:03:04 You know what I'm saying? And what's happening? Your halves are out there saying, okay, I need a corner and I need a tackle and I need a running back. And they're going to these four-year schools and just selecting. And those guys are really becoming glorified junior colleges, he says. And it's a shame. I mean, great college football programs that have won big in the past and have had

Starting point is 00:03:24 tremendously great players. But that's what's changed, Jimbo Fisher said. Your thoughts. Jimbo, you're so interesting. You're such an interesting guy, but you use one of the worst examples possible for a lot of reasons. Donnell, did you know that Pat Mahomes was somewhat of a celebrity before he went to college? No.

Starting point is 00:03:47 His dad was a pitcher in an MLB, and he was routinely on the field with his dad and, you know, doing things out there. Why is that important, Donno? The money isn't a factor for a guy who's already who comes from a family where he's raised in one of the richest suburbs surrounding Dallas. You get what I'm saying? Like, he's not the one that's like the money now is the most important thing. You know who might be that kind of way, though?

Starting point is 00:04:21 One from a city called, or one from a city that's known as the Steel City in Alabama, that's not Bessemer. A guy like that James kid. And here's another fun fact about, here's another fun fact about the whole Pat Mahomes analogy in this situation.

Starting point is 00:04:40 Pat Mahomes wasn't even seen as that good. He was seen as a product of the air raid offense who just put up ridiculous numbers because in the air raid offense, everybody puts up ridiculous numbers. It's kind of the name of the game. If you can't put up numbers in the air raid offense,

Starting point is 00:04:57 you are not a quarterback son. I don't know what to tell you. You do not deserve that football in your hands at any point in time. So with that in mind, let's talk about the idea that, hey, these schools are just going to post players off and whatever they need. They'll just come to these. Because I don't think he's wrong.

Starting point is 00:05:13 I mean, obviously, you know, you have valid reasons to pick apart the specific example. But I just, I think he could have gone with better examples for that argument. But I don't think he's wrong. Well, here's why I do think he's wrong. I will say this. There are not a ton of players leaving these top tier ACC and Big 12 schools to go to the SEC and big team. There's not a ton of them. Are there going to be one-off examples?

Starting point is 00:05:42 Absolutely. But you're also going to find one-off examples of guys leaving the SEC and going to Big 12 and the ACC. Florida State got a handful of them. And that's what I'm saying. So I don't think that it's fair to say, hey, the pay gap is going to make all these guys leave one place and go to another. Again, I will a thousand percent agree that the additional money is needed to get everybody to the ceiling. But we're still headed towards the ceiling. We're still headed towards the ceiling.

Starting point is 00:06:14 All of, again, football powerhouse guy here, anybody who knows anything about football in the Midwest, cash tech is kind of a big deal. And all of us, when we go to these different universities and see, all the things they got. I'm talking the smaller ones like Toledo and stuff. We're like, wait, what? They got a trainer? They got an ice top.

Starting point is 00:06:32 They got all these things. I am telling you, there's only a, there's a raw, and I'm not saying the most of the ACC is there. I'm absolutely agreeing that a lot of ACC teams, they have a long way to go before they hit that ceiling. However, if we're talking about, hey, 40 million a year, 50 million a year, 60 million a year, that you're going to still top out to where it's,

Starting point is 00:06:54 like, all right, you're not, the facilities don't give you anything more than what you already have. And so I think that this is a lot more complicated nuance than they have the money. They get best player. You all leave left in dust because that's, that's, it's not seeming to be the case. If the most money was the case, then we'd see Vanderbilt whooping the wheels off everybody in the ACC. It's just not happening. Also, also here's the thing. And this is, I think this is the best way to debunk anything that comes out of Jimbo Fisher's mouth. If money was the end-all be-all, why didn't you win in Texas A&M? I mean, you think about it. I mean, Texas A&M was notorious for having some of the biggest NIL pockets. I mean, probably top three in the entire country. And, you know,

Starting point is 00:07:41 being able to sign, you know, virtually any recruit that they wanted, virtually any transfer that they wanted, how come Jimbo didn't do better? But that's, that's my exact point. It is not a one-to-one put in dollar get winning. It's not a one-to-one. I know the people would like to believe that. I know that that's probably how it's going to work on NCAA, when that game comes out in a few months. By the way, waiting on that,

Starting point is 00:08:05 one exciting day. We may not have an episode on the 20th. But here's what we should do for that episode. Let's just stream ourselves playing the game. And you'll probably kick my ass because I'm terrible at video games. So let's just do that. Let's do it. No, no.

Starting point is 00:08:18 We need to have a collab, a dynasty. Okay. We need to rebuild Arkansas. state into a powerhouse like the world has never seen. That's what we need to do. But in all seriousness, you know, the reality is, again, the money matters. I'm not saying that the money is irrelevant. I'm not saying, hey, all the money in the world is, you know, the difference between a billion dollars and zero is nothing in terms of college sports. But what I'm saying is, once you get to a the power four level, it all kind of, and even if you're saying the power two are going to

Starting point is 00:08:49 make a chasm between these schools. Okay, sure. But let's, Last time I checked, who won the Pact 12 last year? It was Washington, correct? Washington. Does Washington have the same type of money in for Silesis, Oregon? No. And yet they beat them not once, but twice. Great point.

Starting point is 00:09:09 New Mexico State went over and beat Auburn. Auburn, for Christ's sake. What are we like, there's, again, it's not a dollar in, win-out type of deal. I know that we would like to believe it works that way. And I understand what the conference realignment and the way that things are shifting behind the money, we like to pretend that that's the case. It's not unfortunately. Or fortunately, rather. Fortunately, that's not the case.

Starting point is 00:09:35 Well, it's not just Jimbo Fisher who's warning about an ACC demise. A very prominent national college football analyst referred to the ACC as, quote unquote, cooked. We'll explain what he means. and why the conference is in the place that it's in right now. You want to keep it locked right here, my friends. We're only getting started. Alex Dono from Locked on Cains, Kenton Gibbs from Lockedon, Wolfpack, right here on this brand new episode of Locked on ACC.

Starting point is 00:10:04 Keep it locked. And if you're a small business owner, I already know you're keeping it locked to LinkedIn jobs because when you're hiring for your small business, you want to find quality professionals that are right for the role. That's why you have to check out LinkedIn jobs. LinkedIn jobs has the tools to help you find the right professional for your team bastard and for free.

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Starting point is 00:11:12 Thank you so much for making this episode of LockdowneACC, your first listen and your first watch today. Hey, Locked On has launched the first ever national sports 24-7 streaming channel on YouTube. and now it's also available on Amazon Fire TV in the free Fire TV channels app. Lockdown Sports Today is here for you 24-7 covering the top sports stories of the day with the local experts of Lockdown Plus our national shows covering every league. Find Locked on Sports Today now available on the free Fire TV channels app. We are available free, by the way, on that app. We are locked on ACCC, Alex Dono and Kenton Gibbs.

Starting point is 00:11:46 Now, you know, Kenton, somebody that I really respect in the National College Football Media, Josh Pate of CBS Sports and 24-7 sports. She just seems like a really even-keeled guy. No biases that I can identify. Very informed. Calls it like he sees it. He referred to the ACC. He said the ACC is cooked.

Starting point is 00:12:07 It just feels cooked, he said. It feels like the stove is on. It feels like everything's in the pan. And you got to slide it in at this point. It's not a good feeling for those of us who really just wish we could leave well enough alone. There's a really good Tracy Lawrence song, he says, when Daddy was a strong man, never got released on the radio, but that's one of the lines in there. I wish change would just leave well enough alone, he said. If you've not paid attention to this stuff and all you do at all, and you think to yourself, I don't really care.

Starting point is 00:12:38 Just tell me when they kick the ball off. I respect you, he says. But, you know, he talks about the lawsuits and everything. Just say, you know, coming out of those spring meetings. that the ACC just feels cooked. And I think he's speaking for the college football fan base at large, Kenton, because that seems to be, we talked about this last Friday, how the public perception of this league has never been lower.

Starting point is 00:13:03 So I'll ask you, does the ACC, do they only have themselves to blame? Or was this just kind of a natural evolution of falling behind the Big Ten in SEC? Yes, the ACC only has themselves to blame for Swofford. The Swafford thing was what led us here. without that domino falling in the way that it did we are not here for those of you who don't know for those of you who are new hey cow stanford smu and friends welcome in let's give you a brief little history this thing right so commissioner john swafford not going to say what university he graduated from but just know their logo is a dirty foot so um he grabbed he was the ad at unccc and then he went

Starting point is 00:13:44 on to become the commissioner of the acc now when he was a commissioner at acc he was a commissioner at a cc His son had a very, very high-ranking position over at Raycom. Now, Raycom was not available or was not as good of a network, as many other networks that they could have went and gotten for the ACC and for the ACC schools. Yeah, it was like a tier three media rights, I think is what those were referred to. Ding, ding, ding. So instead of the ACC ending up tier one or even tier two, they ended up tier three. Now, what happened as a result of the ACC becoming Tier 3?

Starting point is 00:14:20 Because there are just less possible viewers, period, because again, Raycom was not ubiquitously available like a CBS, like an ABC, like an ESPN even, which is behind a paywall and all that. It wasn't as available as those things. So what happens as a result of that? The numbers plummet. They are not good. You do not see an increase in numbers.

Starting point is 00:14:41 Who, by the way, his son also graduated from the same club of dirty footers. shall we say. Now, the numbers plummet. And so what happens? Going into the next deal, they have to negotiate off of those numbers that were not great. And they had to find a new partner, which again ended up being Tier 3 in Bally Sports, which somehow had blacked out games when it was like, hey, I live by Carter Fenley Stadium. Why can I not watch the game on TV? Oh, it's blacked up. So with that in mind, what ultimately ends up happening is the ACC is put the high this terrible eight ball where they have to take whatever deal they can get because we all know that advertisers and companies are not giving you money based off what you could do is based

Starting point is 00:15:26 off what you have done and what they had done with a tier three media rights deal was poop garbage backward it was it was it was horrible so that's what the that's what got the locomotive rolling in the way that we are today and whoopee congratulations this is where we end up at Now, are we cooked? I think this is the same type of doom and gloomerism that surrounded the Big 12 when Texas and Oklahoma left. And I don't think that we're, you know, it's over, it's done for, it's all over but to shout him. But this is not a good way to be. It's legitimately not.

Starting point is 00:16:03 You know, like Jimbo said, although I disagree with the example he used and although I don't think that there's a one-to-one money situation, what I do believe is if you're looking at the bottom schools, then catching up to your, your conference is top schools. That is tough. That's tough to get over, even if those schools still will have a problem getting the best players from different states and whatnot. Because again, they're just not known as good football schools. It's tough. But I think this is a little bit of that 2012 syndrome. The world is ending and I know about it before everybody else type in. You know, you brought up the media dealings between Swofford Senior and Swofford Jr., who was a high-level executive at Raycom and, you know, the potential shadiness behind that deal, because if you are,

Starting point is 00:16:53 if you are entrusted with cutting the media deals on behalf of all the members of your conference, part of that fiduciary responsibility comes in looking for the best possible deal, not doing, you know, a favor for a family member. So I think that, you know, how deep that rabbit hole goes is something that we may find out when the discovery process and these court cases moves forward. that could be one of those potential loopholes that might provide Florida State, Clemson, with a way out of the grant of rights. I don't know for sure if that's enough of a loophole. We'll cross that bridge when we get to it.

Starting point is 00:17:27 But elsewhere, with all these bad sentiments around the ACC Kenton, we were talking about this a little bit off here before the show started. The grant of rights, it's a double-edged sword, okay? Because on the one hand, you know, the ACC had locked in a television, deal through 2036 that probably seemed like a great deal at the time. I don't think they anticipated how how much other TV deals would skyrocket. They thought they were signing a fair market deal. Now all of a sudden, you know, schools like Florida State and Clemson that feel like they

Starting point is 00:18:01 can do so much better are locked into a deal where there's a $40 million revenue gap between these other schools, right? So that that's the bad part of the grant of rights. I guess, and you know, good is a relative term here. this is good for the ACC. The good part of it for the conference is that grant of rights, it's probably the only thing that at least for now is holding the conference together, right? Because schools would have probably found a way out earlier,

Starting point is 00:18:25 if not for that grant of rights. Exactly, exactly. As unfortunate as it is and as I hate to see like a situation that's held together by somebody getting the raw end of a deal here. But the reality is if one side didn't get a very raw end of a deal, But the reality is this thing really would be cooked. It would be over because if while I will say Jimmy Phillips is not very, Jim Phillips is not very vocal.

Starting point is 00:18:54 He's not very like this, this charismatic, this like guy that you're like, oh man, this is a great. One thing that he is is a good business decision maker. He makes the decision that's right for the money. And let me explain to you why this long grant of rights was right for the money for the conference before the existence of the conference. imagine if he only said, oh, the deal is through 2028, 2027, right? And how much do these teams make from every year from the, from the deal here? What is it?

Starting point is 00:19:24 $30 million or so, 35. I think it's, it's in the 35 to 40 range, I believe. Okay, let's say $40 million. $40 million times for $160 million. They would have to pay $160 million as their exit ticket, which is a lot more stomachable, which is a lot more feasible than half a billion. So with that in mind, you're looking at a very different situation where whether or not teams like it, you're, you know, as the old song goes, you got clowns to the left of me, Jokers to the right, here I am, stuck in the middle with you because I can't pay a half a billion to get out. So that's that, from that standpoint, the granted rights did do right by the ACC in terms of keeping everybody together for as long as possible, even if it's not the greatest financial.

Starting point is 00:20:10 benefit to all these universities. Right. I just think that there's this wide perception and I, I tend, you know, nothing's black and white about the situation, but I do tend to agree that ACC leadership, and you know, maybe I shouldn't lump Phillips into this because he came in. So these problems already existed before Jim Phillips. He inherited a burning house. He inherited a burning house. But so, you know, as to who set that house on fire, all these decisions really were made in terms of self-preservation for conference leadership rather than the best for their member institutions. And isn't that the entire point of this, Kent, or at least it should be. Like, it should be your conference, your mission should be providing the best possible competitive

Starting point is 00:20:55 landscape for your member universities, not for Mr. Front Office guy or Mr. ACC commissioner and his secretary and his staff. Like, you know, it feels like self-preservation for conference leadership has taken the front seat versus actually providing the best experience for your members. And I think that is an issue. Oh, absolutely. I'm not going to lie and say, hey, that's the idea of keeping the ACC together, period, is the ACC in existence is inherent good that needs to happen. I'm not going to lie and say that, right? Right. With that being said, as long as the sun rises on the east and sets on the west, you'll have people acting in their own self-interest. Like, that's,

Starting point is 00:21:37 it's just it's the way that this thing the NCAA does it especially in the current economic system that we live under where it's like hey whether you eat or you starve a lot of people are going to do very unscrupulous things to eat which is again what has us in this situation in a lot of regards and what is like you said

Starting point is 00:21:57 that's what to me that's the biggest holdup for the merger that I think should be inevitable but for whatever reason it's just not a thing again, there can only be one commissioner. There can only be one executive assistance of the commissioner. There can only be one chief financial officer. There can only be one compliance officer. And everybody's like, oh, well, I don't want to lose my job because of my job.

Starting point is 00:22:20 And it's like, dude, this is, y'all, both of you are going to end up 40 million behind these other conferences, both of you. That is a fact of, that's just a matter of fact, okay? There are no heavy hitters for one of you. For the other one of you, your heavy hitters are suing. to get out. I am telling you right now, you will never be able, no games that you all produce will be able to keep up with the top games on the other side. How can you kind of close that gap, bridge that gap just a little bit? Because right now, the gap is ever widening. So, you know, it'd be beautiful for both sides to come together and find a way. But again, it's so far from even

Starting point is 00:23:01 the thought and sphere, because again, there's a lot of doom and gloomorism where people are not looking at the objective fact of what he is, and they're focusing on what could be at all. Well, if the ACC falls apart, I love Drake told a debt. That's my brother from another mother, but he keeps claiming all these ACC teams, like, oh, Pitt, this is what you look like in the Big 12?

Starting point is 00:23:19 Come on, though. Come on, it's not happening any time soon. It's not happening any time soon. As much as everybody keeps screaming, that you and I sound like Utah fans last year or whatever the case may be, the reality is the PAC 12 had a TV deal that was done. That year, literally.

Starting point is 00:23:36 That year, everybody knew this TV deal is done. They want to get something new done, but they have nothing done that year. It is 2024. Until 2025 at earliest, at earliest, there's going to be a continuation here. And again, for everybody saying, well, the ESPN just won't, ESPN just won't renew. ESPN is winning the deal. Why would a side that's winning the deal give that deal up? Like, what?

Starting point is 00:24:03 Are we okay? True. Are the neurons neurony? If you had living brain cells, they would die of loneliness. We need to help you out here and explain that again, ESPN is whooping the wheels off the ACC. This isn't a situation where they're like, we got to offload this immediately. We're losing too much money on this deal.

Starting point is 00:24:26 So objectively speaking, again, I think that the ACC needs to go to the Big 12 and say, hey, the ACC's got us wrecked over the coals. Let's get together. Let's work this thing out. But again, like you said, people are acting in their own self-interest, not self-interest to their conference and their players. Well, speaking of which, acting at self-interest, the NCAA is pissing off the non-power-for conferences with the tax bill that's about to come due for this House versus NCAA settlement.

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Starting point is 00:26:00 We're free on YouTube. We are locked on ACC. Shout out to the everydayers out there. Alex Dono of Lockdown Keynes, Kenton Gibbs from Lockdown Wolfpack with you. So this is about to get finalized, Kenton, this House v. NCAA settlement. So the NCAA's national office, this is per ESPN, the NCAA's national office would foot the bill for a $2.7 billion payout for past damages over the course of the next 10 years. Now, you could say, oh, how gracious of the NCAA to foot that bill. Well, here's how they're getting most of that money, Kenton.

Starting point is 00:26:34 the NCAA could split up an expected $1.6 billion that would come from reductions in NCAA distribution. Sources told ESPN, the remaining $1.1 billion is expected to come from NCAA reserves. So they're only out of their war chest, they're only really paying one. That's a lot of money, I know, but they're only paying $1.1.2.7 billion from that. of that 1.6 billion, nearly 60% is expected to come from leagues outside the power conferences that are named in the House lawsuit. The other 40% will come from the power conferences. For example, the cost annually for the Big East is expected at between 5.4 million and 6.6 million over the next decade, according to a source familiar with the memo. And we did have strongly worded comments

Starting point is 00:27:24 from the Big East Commissioner about how unhappy that they are with the NC. basically acting unilaterally and the other non-power conferences are getting screwed. And they're not even going to have like the revenue sharing money to pay out their athletes after this. So the non-power four, I mean, good luck surviving all this. My God. I thought that this was going to be a net game for everybody except the power four. Or I'm sorry, the power four were going to be the only ones to see that that game out of this, but it's even worse than I thought.

Starting point is 00:27:56 Oh, boy. Yeah, yeah, yeah. that bill is that tax bill is going to hurt some pockets it's going to hurt some pockets it's going to hurt some souls because i'll tell you what a lot of these universities were already running in the red in terms of of their athletic departments their athletic departments were being subsidized by the state which they should be because a lot of these are public universities but still this is oh man how do you even make up this chasm for schools that are already in the red how do you make this up and how do you kind of clear this and

Starting point is 00:28:28 And, you know, if you're paying the tax on this thing, you should also get some of the kickbacks on the back end of it. That's unfortunate. But for ACC's purposes in particular, I'm interested to see how this plays out from school to school because every school is in a very different situation. And I'm very intrigued to see how this plays out. My final thought on this is the NCAA has $1.1 billion laying around in their coffers. Apparently. What's going on in Indianapolis? we need to have some conversations because what?

Starting point is 00:29:05 Well, I mean, they, you know, that's probably all the, all the fines and stuff that they've handed out in like past recruiting violation. And the stuff they can no longer enforce, like they can't really enforce recruiting violations anymore. That's probably all that, all that old money that they had laying around. But this is, yeah, this is rough. We'll talk more later this week about how this is specifically. going to affect the ACC. But if you're, you know, if you're one of those non-power conferences, especially the ones that don't have football, because there's a lot of those that don't have football, you're really screwed. But we'll get to do it more throughout the week. He's Kenton Gibbs

Starting point is 00:29:42 from Lockdown Wolfpack. I am Alex Dono from Lockdowne Canes. Thank you so much for making Lockedon ACC your first list. Make sure you smash that like button and subscribe. And we will talk to you guys again next time on another episode of Lockdown ACC, part of the awesome Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day.

Locked On ACC - Daily College Football & Basketball Podcast - Jimbo Fisher Gives Ominous Warning On The ACC's Future | Josh Pate Calls ACC "Cooked"

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