Locked On ACC - Daily College Football & Basketball Podcast - PHYSICALITY WINS: Miami Hurricanes & Mark Fletcher OUTLAST Ole Miss—Key Insights & PREDICTIONS

Starting point is 00:00:00 It's a college football playoff showdown between the Miami Hurricanes and Ole Miss Rebels. Here's what Miami has to do to take home that dub. You are Locked on ACC, your daily podcast on the Atlantic Coast Conference. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. And when I say take home that dub, I literally mean take it home because the championship game, if Miami can get there, is in Miami. Thank you so much to the everydayers for making. Locked on ACC, your first listen.

Starting point is 00:00:37 We're available free wherever you get your podcast. We're on YouTube. We're part of the number one Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. He is Kenton Gibbs, former NC State Defensive linemen and co-host of Lockedon Wolfpack. I am Alex Dono, host of Lockedon Cain's. And this episode of Lockedon ACC is brought to you by Rougiet. If you've been thinking about taking the next step, now is the time. Head to Rougiette.com slash Lockedon College to get 15% off your order for a limited time.

Starting point is 00:01:04 Ruggiette ready, feel present, feel confident, feel ready. We'll talk ACCC Transfer Portal. Transfer Portal in general because we're going to be joined by Brian Smith from the Portal podcast in just a second. And there's like thousands of players in the portal right now. We've had some, you know, important exits from the ACC, hopefully some important incoming players. And we'll talk Miami versus Old Miss.

Starting point is 00:01:26 And, you know, Kenton, we got exactly the matchup we thought we would get, right? with Ole Miss beating Georgia, Miami beating Ohio State. We went full chalk on this one. Well, you know, this is just another symptom of something that I've talked about for quite some time and that the statistics bear out. The by weeks hurt these teams because you're talking about 18 to 22 year olds. You don't need rest for 18 to 22. You accumulate rust for that group of people because they're not pros yet.

Starting point is 00:01:58 Yes, I know that these contracts are flying and guys are making hundreds of thousand, millions of dollars, but they're still not quite at that level of the NFL where, you know, you've got a 35-year-old left tackle with three kids and he needs that rest. He needs to sit down somewhere for a few weeks before his next game. You don't have that in college to that same extent. So objectively speaking, since we've expanded and given buys, the first round by teams are one and seven. And guess what? Both Georgia and Ohio State had coming into their games against Ole Miss and my

Starting point is 00:02:32 Miami by week. So, you know, very long layoffs between their last time playing football in these games. And I believe that it objectively showed. And I warned everybody of this before the game, even though I did pick Ohio State, not going to lie and say I didn't, but I said. How dare you? I said it was going to be a three-point game, which was much closer than the spread indicated. And I said it was going to be a close game because in Miami was going to have a shot to win

Starting point is 00:02:59 because they're extremely physical and Ohio State was going to be rusty. Both of those things panned out in major ways. Yeah, well, let's bring on Brian Smith, who is the host of the portal podcast and host of Locked-on Seminels. I know he's been very invested in these college football playoffs. So, Brian, in this matchup, obviously, you know, teams that are, they're engaged. They just played last week. Miami got the win over Ohio State. Ole Miss got the big win over Georgia.

Starting point is 00:03:30 Let's start. I mean, is it as simple to say that, you know, Miami needs to make this game a physical one and control the time of possession and Ole Miss needs to turn this into a track meet? I think that would be Ole Miss's really, really best shot. I don't think they're going to win a slug fest, especially when you got Trinidad Chambliss. But at the same time, the run game, one Lacey is legit. now can they run the ball against Miami's front seven? That's probably the biggest question of the game, because you're not going to just throw for $4.50 and win,

Starting point is 00:04:04 because when you get down in the red zone and everything condenses, that's rough, they have to be able to run the ball at least somewhat in a traditional fashion. But they want to play tempo, even if they're running the ball, and they want to wear out Rubin and Akeem on the edges. So I'm curious to see if they come out throwing or running or if it's balanced. I'm not sure what they'll do, but they need to go with tempo. Well, I think that when you look at this game and say, is it as simple as rock fight versus track meet? I'd say yes.

Starting point is 00:04:35 I'd say yes. Objectively speaking, if you get into a track meet, what you're trusting at that point of your old miss is that Carson Beck's going to throw you some back balls. You know what that is. In a big game, if you make him throw the ball 40 times, he's going to throw up a couple to just leave you like, well, now who was the intended receiver? Who in the green jersey were you targeting with that football? However, if you play a rock fight, now you're trusting that Trinidad Chambliss can be a guy that just takes what the defense gives him time and time over again. And we've seen one of the biggest problems, one of the things that's gotten Ole Miss to trouble multiple times this year, is when you force them into that rock fight, Trinidad Chamblis is going to make some hero ball plays where he imagines, I can get away from 12 guys and, you know,

Starting point is 00:05:26 deep guys downfield. And reality doesn't work that way. You're putting yourself, not only exposing yourself to injury, but you're exposing yourself to a great chance for a turnover, both through the air, or by getting sacked and you're holding a ball like a loaf of bread trying to elude people. So ultimately, I would say that this game is about who can impose their style. Who can impose their style? The other thing that comes out of that, if you have a track meet, you know, Brian just alluded to it, wearing down Bain and Mezidore is easy. If you, if you, you're not, you. You know, you're just alluded to it. You got those big fellas running, running, running. Every play, they're just, okay, I held my got.

Starting point is 00:06:01 Now I got to run to the line five yards down. Okay, we did our job. We got up field. We forced the incompletion, but we're right back on the line. Okay, they completed a third and six. So now we got to do this all over again for three more plays. You're going to have a problem. But if you can create that rock fight, if you can create that, hey, you've got to be precise

Starting point is 00:06:17 with everything you do, brother. You got to make every possession count. That's when guys like Bain and Mezedor and their impact. It goes through the roof as opposed to. to a quick, hey, everything we do, go, go, go. We want to get in 60 plays this game. We want to get in 80 plays this game. That's a different story.

Starting point is 00:06:33 Yeah, Ole Miss averages over 74 plays per game. So they try to gas out the opposing defensive lines. And that's why, you know, Brian, I think for Miami on the offensive side of the football, it's especially important for, you know, Miami who does not run the type of tempo that Ole Miss runs. In fact, they like to control the time of possession. They're averaging about 66 plays per game, which is ranked in the 90s.

Starting point is 00:06:57 Ole Miss is top 11 in plays run per game. Miami's going to want to control the clock with Mark Fletcher. I think to be able to run the football, which statistically you would think Miami should be able to do that. Ole Miss has the 65th rated rushing defense in the country, although I'm sure they brought that average up a little bit during the playoffs. They had some good moments defending the run against Georgia late. So they're going to try to replicate that against Miami.

Starting point is 00:07:25 but I think if Miami can get their running game going, Brian, it's going to be hard to stop them. If Miami averages over four yards of tote from traditional runs from Mark or anybody else that goes out there, Brown, or anybody else, that's when Carson Beck is going to be at his best. He's really accurate on play action. And I saw somebody talk about this the other day.

Starting point is 00:07:47 He's one of the best quarterbacks in the country when you blitz. In Ole Miss, first half the season was a drop 18. Now they blitz more. So if they're blitzing on our, on first down and they don't get home and get marked for tackles for loss, et cetera. And you get that quarterback back there is 60 years senior. I mean, look, that could be really long day. They have to stop Mark Fletcher in a sense of like if he averages three yards of carry.

Starting point is 00:08:12 You can live with it. If he gets into that four and above, Miami's probably going to control the lot of scrimmage and probably, I mean, Carson Becker control the game. He's too accurate to give him easy opportunities. You want to keep it locked right here when we, come back. We'll talk a little bit more about Miami's defense. Can Rubin Bain and Akeem Mezzador get home against Trinidad, Chambliss? Can they contain him? You want to keep it locked right here. We got Kenton Gibbs. We got Brian Smith. I'm Alex Dono, and we're only getting

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Starting point is 00:09:45 Check it out at LockedonacC.com or click that link in the show notes below. I am Alex Dono from Lockdown Cains. We got Kenton Gibbs from Locked on Wolfpack, Brian Smith from Lockdown, the portal, and Locked on Seminoles. All right, so fellas, I think the big factor, and Brian, you talked a little bit about what makes Trinidad Chambliss so dangerous. I think Miami's obviously the defensive line holds a lot of keys here, but you can't over commit to trying to sack him because he can get outside and extend plays and he's always looking downfield Chambliss and he's super accurate. I think Miami needs to be disciplined and I think they need to keep him contained. If they can just pressuring with four is the key, but you use the key word and that's contained.

Starting point is 00:10:33 They're going to roll pocket. They'll run some design runs with him and RPO's. It's going to come down to a stat that I heard on another podcast. I didn't believe. I want Dono's opinion on this. Miami is like 110th in the nation in tackling rate. I have a hard time believing that. But I don't know where that came from.

Starting point is 00:10:51 It doesn't sound right to me. Yeah, it doesn't to me either. but I, you know, whatever the case may be, I figured they were top 40. But if they don't tackle him in space, not just for sacks when they contain, but if they don't push him away from the pocket and make his eyes drop, Georgia's got a talented defense. What's beyond? Like, it's loaded.

Starting point is 00:11:10 He had 13 in a row against him. So contain is a really good word, but nobody's been able to do it. So the question now becomes, can you at least get him to throw one up, and it goes the other direction? Because Miami's been very good at that. they've got dbs that make plays on the ball and i think their young corners are making enough plays so they may not contain him on every play that's probably not realistic but just a few home run plays if you will strip sack an interception or something like that that could be the key to the game

Starting point is 00:11:40 and i absolutely agree with you that the idea that you're going to stop old miss's offense outright the idea that you're going to hold trinidad chamblis to uh you know precious little i think that that's something that you're really likely not going to get. I mean, their only loss of the season against Georgia earlier, they put up 35 points on them the first time they played. They had that game in control and should have won the first time that they played Georgia. Georgia escaped by the hairs of their chinny, chin, by some very questionable decisions down the stretch by a man who's now in Baton Rouge.

Starting point is 00:12:16 So, you know, ultimately, this is a very high-powered Ole Miss offense. And the idea here, if you're expecting to see more performances like what you saw against Texas A&M and Ohio State, I wouldn't say that you're going to get that level because this is the most explosive offense that they've seen. The big thing here is can Miami's offensive line lean on them? I think that that is going to be more important than the defensive line, because if you talk about one feeding the other, even if Bain and Mezedor have the games of their, lives if they cannot if you cannot hold a decided advantage in time of possession if you cannot keep those guys fresh you're going to have a problem if bane and mesidor are ripping shambliss a

Starting point is 00:13:06 new one right how does that help the offensive line like objectively speaking it it doesn't keep them fresher or better or anything like that the other way will so echoes and company they're a heck of a defensive line however we've seen old miss has some problems with gap discipline they've got some problems with tackling themselves that if you have an efficient and effective run game i mean kudos to them for what they did to georgia that was probably the best run defense i've seen from old miss maybe all season but other than that by and large teams have had a lot of success i believe uh florida averaged six or seven yards per carry in their last few games against power five teams if you take out what they did against georgia they're averaging smitty said they need four per carry, that's about what teams are averaging, if not more, against Ole Miss. So ultimately for me, I know that Mezzador and Bain are the stars of the show, but Big C, C, brother, this is about you and your boys. If y'all can lean on them and, you know, as Chris the ball and Sabin said,

Starting point is 00:14:10 Mazz kicks, you know what, if that can be the case here, Miami's got a shot. But if Miami cannot run the ball and you're depending on, all right, Beck, you got to throw it 40 times. I'm not saying that they have no shot. That winning that style of game would shock me from Miami. And at that point, crown them the national champion. I know IU is amazing. I know IU is good.

Starting point is 00:14:31 But if they can win a shootout with Ole Miss, there's nothing this team can. Yeah, you're right about that. So with that said, Kenton, I'll go to you first. What's your prediction? How's this play out who wins? Yeah. So I think that Ole Miss has done so fantastic in terms of being an ambassador for the SEC. think that they've done a heck of a job with all the turmoil and this coach is leaving,

Starting point is 00:14:54 that coach is leaving, who's staying, who's going, who's in the portal, who's not, all that type of stuff and everything that's going on behind the scene. I think Golden has done a fantastic job of keeping that team together. However, to me, this feels like you've got five fingers versus a fist. I think that that Ole Miss team is seeing a little bit too much separation and too many things that are coming out from behind the scenes. And I think that that cohesion is going to affect them because right now, my Miami is playing with an us versus the world mentality.

Starting point is 00:15:22 They've been underdogs for almost every game. And I believe even in these, in this game, I don't believe that they're favored. If they are, Miami is actually favored. Miami's actually favored by three and a half, but they've got everybody hating them because everyone wants, because you can make a,

Starting point is 00:15:37 you can make a Disney movie out of Ole Miss if they win this championship. Everybody's rooting for them. That's my point. Exactly. Miami has an us versus the world mentality, and it's actually rightfully earned here. Nobody believed in them, and now that people do believe.

Starting point is 00:15:50 and they're like, oh, we want Ole Miss to win. I think that this is going to be one of those power of friendship games, but more important than the power of friendship, we're going to see the power of an offensive line that just leans on guys, play in and play out. And I think that Miami wins a close one in a mix between the two, but a little bit closer to the rock fight. I think we get another 27-17 win from Miami here.

Starting point is 00:16:17 I'm pretty close to what Kenton says. I'm going to echo a lot of what he's bringing up. Again, we both discussed the run game for the canes. I'm curious to see if Ole Miss brings a guy down in the box early. Like, what do they do? Do they worry about number 10 if that happens? Like, you know, there's a lot of fact. And like Miami's receiver group, but in general is quality.

Starting point is 00:16:36 So how will they handle that? I think that Miami will be able to run the ball a little bit better. And I think Trinidad will be as good or better than any player on the field. But I also think he'll be under a heck of a lot more duress. I'm just being honest. I just think that Miami's offensive line is a gear ahead of Ole Misses in the past protection game. I got Miami winning 3121, and I think they'll have a big turnover that will cement the game. Yeah, I'm pretty close with you, Brian.

Starting point is 00:17:04 I'm going 31-24 Miami. I think it's going to be hard to keep Ole Miss from scoring a few touchdowns. But at the same time, I think Miami's going to have more space because these last couple games, I mean, going up against Ohio State's defense and Texas A&Ms, you know, Malachi Tony was being. blanketed for those two games. I think he'll have a little bit more space to make some plays in this one. But as I mentioned, I think winning this game is contingent on being able to run the football with Mark Fletcher, Marty Brown, and Gerard Pringle. I think Miami will be able to do that. And they'll be able to keep enough pressure on Chambliss. So I'm going to 31, 24, Miami. And it scares

Starting point is 00:17:40 me that we have a clean sweep here on the panel from Miami. I feel like I need to dial up Stephen Willis from locked on Ole Miss and get him in here to pick the rebels. Well, listen, the clean sweep of doom and despair never bids well for a team. However, I highly doubt that when we get to the big time national shows, all of them are going to agree with us that Miami's going to win this game. You know, the way people talk about Batman and IU, you would have assumed that Nick Saving and Derek Henry were walking through that door because they were, oh, yeah, this IU team.

Starting point is 00:18:11 They played nobody. They've got no shot and all that. So I highly doubt we'll see a bunch of clean sweeps for mine. Yeah, this has been a fun playoff, that's for sure. We only have, you know, three games total left to go. But when we come back, the transfer portal is always fun. Well, it's either fun or you hate it like poison because, you know, all these are thousands of players in the portal.

Starting point is 00:18:32 We got to get Brian Smith's take. And also, you know, is the Big Ten going to be able to keep DeMond Williams from leaving Washington? They're fighting this tooth and nail. You want to keep it locked right here. We're not done yet on this brand new episode of LockdowneACC. Let's talk about something most men don't bring up, but absolutely should. Stress from work, money, life.

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Starting point is 00:19:59 Thank you for making Lockdowne ACC, your first listen. And for your next list, make sure you check out our other shows. I also host Lockdowne Canes. It's pretty obvious what I've been talking about for the past several days. Miami versus Ole Miss, Kenton Gibbs and Grayson Boone co-hosts Locked on Wolfpack and Brian Smith hosts Lockdown Seminels and the Portal. I guess, let me have your worlds collide here, Brian, because it seems like Florida State has been losing.

Starting point is 00:20:22 They've been losing more players in the portal than they've been gaining. What's, I mean, is, is it just hard to sell Mike Norvell as a lame duck coach right now? I think the last count that I saw this morning was 33 out the door and seven in. Now, most people, they're behind because more players are leaving and catches up at the end. But that's a lot. And the DeSere twins, Amari Williams, like, that happened a day or so ago. and I'm like, uh-oh, this, this is about to go because they lose big Daryl in the middle. Like their D-line is shredded.

Starting point is 00:20:58 Their linebacker room was shredded before last season started because it just wasn't any good. And then the secondary is losing a couple key pieces. Offense might be okay. But like, Kenton, if you've got any eligibility, they might call you because they may need, they may need you to, like, it's bad up front. So the portal hasn't been kind. And while you're bringing up a good. point don't know about the coaching situation i don't think it's just that i think it's nil because a

Starting point is 00:21:28 couple guys have come back i don't think their offers have been where it's supposed to be did you do you hear about the anthony colandria thing it's hilarious yeah that was received pretty well by florist state fans they left immediately what does that tell you about how the offers me So I get it. I knew the lagway thing wasn't going to work because they were going to want way more than his value. So I didn't even count that. And I'm cool with Ashton Daniels.

Starting point is 00:21:55 He's actually a good player, a great kid. But like, they're trying to give low numbers for guys that have got starting reps. And it's not going to go. Especially DeLyman? Kenner, D. Lyman coveted. Do you think they're coveted recruiting in the transfer four away thing, man? Brother, the outside of quarterback,

Starting point is 00:22:16 the positions I've been hearing that demand the most are your tackles, your edge rushers, your defensive tackles. Those are the three positions that I've been hearing, hey, these are getting the most. And I'm not going, you know, I don't want to burn any of my sources here, but I've got some pretty good information from all conferences throughout America. And it's unanimous. When you are talking about the big guys, that's who's getting the real money if you're not a quarterback. Receivers getting paid sure, corners, safety. Linebackers are getting dirt compared to everybody else.

Starting point is 00:22:51 But those big fellas, oh, they, if Florida State want to call me, hey, let's have a talk. You know, they bring in the players that play it in the league up in basketball. So give me a call, Norville. We're committed. You know, it's how we respond, right? And I'm going to respond to your call, brother. But no, it's a, the Calendrian situation was just, that to me was one of the biggest black eyes that I have heard about in recent recruiting history.

Starting point is 00:23:21 And I'm not joking. I mean, to have a guy hear your number and not just leave the room, leave the visit. All right. That's it, boy, pull the plug. I'm actually good here. I could not believe it. I could not believe it until I saw multiple sources all confirmed that it happened. I was just like, man, this portal cycle, we've got more kids in the portal than there are FBS scholarships

Starting point is 00:23:49 available. There are more former FBS players than are scholarships available. This is going to get insane. And when you're looking at the ACC level, there are so many unique situations because Florida State is obviously in a terrible situation in terms of the players they want to bat for, where their coach is, where their NIL is. but even for schools like Miami, I mean, you all have some freshmen

Starting point is 00:24:15 that have played decent amount of ball that are in the portal at this point. Dante Simpson, that was the only one that surprised me, the defensive tackle, because it looked like he was going to play a lot next year. That was the shocker to me. And we're all sitting here saying,

Starting point is 00:24:29 what's going on? What are you leaving for? You're not going to get a better winner, more opportunity, more money at a next stop. What's going on? So this portal is very, interesting. I believe in my school that Hollywood Smothers was going to the NFL. Turns out he's going to Bamma where they ain't had a running back that could piss a drop since

Starting point is 00:24:48 Jamir Gibbs left. So, you know, it's a very, very interesting time in terms of what's going on with this transfer portal. But thank God we got Brian Smith to sort it all out because there's a lot of smoking mirrors, but we need a little bit of clarity in here. Well, yeah, and I would say, Brian, the most fascinating story in the portal right now is Washington quarterback Demand Williams. So, I mean, this is controversy. Lawsuits are probably going to come out of this. So DeMond Williams, four days before he, you know, announced he was trying to hit the portal, four days before that, he just signed a new NIL deal to remain with Washington.

Starting point is 00:25:28 Now, I, you know, I've had to research these contracts because it was the same sort of thing with Xavier Lucas before he ended up at Miami. So the Big Ten schools used these contracts. where they try to bind players to revenue sharing agreements, and they're supposedly not allowed to hit the transfer portal. It's in the language of the agreement, but it's so complicated, Brian, because they are not employees of these schools, and these are not contracts to play football.

Starting point is 00:25:57 These are marketing deals. So how binding these deals actually are has not really been decided because a judge hasn't ruled on these one way or another yet, right? So DeMond Williams decided to hit the portal, You know, there's a lot of smoke that LSU may be the school that, you know, kind of enticed him to hit that transfer portal. But then Washington, they're saying they're not going to let him leave. Like they're going to force him to play for them next year. How do you think this resolves?

Starting point is 00:26:24 I don't know if resolve is the best word. How about implodes? I don't think either party will end very well. Washington's in the worst spot because while they wait for all this, the portal will come to an end. They need to know who their quarterback is like every other school. Demand's got demand everywhere. I mean, he's going to be fine wherever he lands. Miami.

Starting point is 00:26:43 You call him Demand Williams. He should change his name to. Well done. Well done. But like I could see him enrolling somewhere. And like you said, he's not contractually obligated to play for the Huskies. But he wouldn't be able to do the deals, NIL or whatever for whoever they're. He'd have to pay that out.

Starting point is 00:27:02 And some booster from some other school would pay it. That's my guess. But I mean, they can't force him to go to school at Washington. So I don't think it, and I'm not a lawyer. I'm not trying to, and I don't want to be one. I doubt that you can tell a kid that he can't get in the poor. I just don't think that's enforceable. That's my guess.

Starting point is 00:27:21 But in one state, they may have a judge. It says yes and another. And that's why law is so complex. It's subjective. So this, this will not end well. I just hope it ends soon. That's all I ask. The worst part about the DeMond Williams story,

Starting point is 00:27:36 and there are many layers of this that are terrible, right? There's the fact that the announcement came while the team was at the celebration of life for a soccer player who passed. That's obviously terrible optics and all that. But even then, I don't think that that's a thing that he planned out or that like he could avoid because there's only one window this year and it's extremely short. The biggest thing that I would say is the most damning part of this is LSU was allegedly the school that enticed him in. when he entered his name, Brandon Sorsby was sitting next to Lane Kiffin at a basketball game at LSU.

Starting point is 00:28:14 No, it was Sam Levitt. Oh, Sam Levitt. I'm sorry, wrong quarterback. Either way, you cut or slice it, there's another top guy sitting next to the coach that allegedly lured you into the portal. This is what the college sports world has become in 2026. And I'll tell you this, as much as people are upset about all these different clauses and things that are going into these contracts, I'm going to keep saying this until the players understand this and hear me very loudly.

Starting point is 00:28:44 You can beg individually or you can bargain collectively. And to me, it seems like it would be in all parties' best interest to sit down and collectively bargain, hey, this is what these deals should look like. This is what this portal window should look like. This is what these things look. The NCAA ain't going to stop you. It's clear because we got to. guys that have played in the NBA coming back to play in college basketball. So his is going to allow it.

Starting point is 00:29:08 Just sit down, iron out some terms, and do it that way. So, yeah, fans are going to complain when players leave either way. But you have safeguards and you don't have this situation of very clear tampering happening. And now all of a sudden, this young man who, by all accounts, we don't know anything about him as a person that indicates that he's a terrible human being. but the optics and everything about this just screams. You don't have that well of discernment because you led a coach that had another top portal guy at your position. And mind you, you're not a defensive end, so it's not two of you on the field at once.

Starting point is 00:29:44 There's one of you. There's just one. He can't take five. There's just one. And then on top of that, you do this at a specific timing when a very sensitive thing was happening. It's just a mess. Yeah. It's an absolute mess.

Starting point is 00:29:59 And I appreciate Brian and Kenton helping me sort out this mess. Make sure you follow Kenton Gibbs at TGIF underscore Kenton and on Locked on Wolfpack. Follow Brian Smith at FB Scout underscore Florida. Check out his other shows, the portal and Locked on Seminels. Follow me at Alex Dono and on Locked on Cains. And everyone enjoy the game on Thursday night. We'll talk to you again on another episode of Lockdown ACC. We are part of the number one Locked on podcast network.

Starting point is 00:30:28 your team every day

Locked On ACC - Daily College Football & Basketball Podcast - PHYSICALITY WINS: Miami Hurricanes & Mark Fletcher OUTLAST Ole Miss—Key Insights & PREDICTIONS

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