Locked On ACC - Daily College Football & Basketball Podcast - Rumors Of An ACC COLLAPSE By June 30th?? Coach K Praises NC State, Wolfpack Lucky?

Episode Date: April 3, 2024

There are rumors circulating that the ACC could collapse by June 30th of this year. Could Florida State and Clemson really create a chain reaction so quickly? Youtuber College Football addiction recently discussed the possibility of the ACC losing two members in time to trigger a clause in the ACC’s television deal that would allow ESPN to renegotiate or even blow it up. Hosts Alex Donno and Kenton Gibbs explain why this scenario is unlikely to materialize within the next three months. Kenton wonders if the courts would allow Florida State and Clemson to break the ACC’s Grant of Rights. An eventual exit settlement seems more likely. As NC State prepares to face Purdue in the Final Four, Coach K praised the Wolfpack for “finding religion” just in time to peak in March. Meanwhile, analytics gurus argue that the Wolfpack are lucky to get this far and the other shoe is likely to drop. Is their Cinderella run about to come to an end?  Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Could the ACC literally cease to exist by June 30th, 2024? You are Locked on ACC, your daily podcast on the Atlantic Coast Conference, part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. I am Alex Dono from Locked on Cains. He's Kenton Gibbs from Locked on Wolfpack. We are Locked on ACC. Thank you for making us your first listen and your first watch today. We're available free wherever you get your podcast.

We're free on YouTube. We're part of the Locked on podcast. network, your team every day. So Kenton, this morning, I was reading a YouTube comment I got from a locked on Keynes viewer who was very upset that I was discussing the ins and outs of today's spring football practice. He said, none of that matters. You need to talk about the imminent collapse of the ACC and how Miami's going to get completely screwed over. So I started doing some digging on this, Kenton. And there are definitely some interesting theories that go into this idea being thrown out there that the ACC could, and I emphasize the word could collapse by June 30th of this year,

less than three months away. So, and I like a good conspiracy. So I started to do some digging on this. And so the first part of it, and some of this is based on facts, some of it is based on assumption, because I do think you need a lot of assumption to go this far down the rabbit hole. But I do give credit to college football addiction. And even our guy, Drake Toll at Locked on Big 12, was talking about this today. So ESPN, with their TV deal with the ACC, they have something called the ACC composition clause, which means if the ACC, which is currently at 15 members, were to dip below 14. So if two teams were to leave, ESPN has the rights to, without any input from the ACC unilaterally, renegotiate and redo the television deal, which obviously wouldn't be good, theory.

theoretically for the ACC and their member institutions. So, and here's the other part of it, right? So this only happens if the ACC dips below 14 members. They're currently at 15. So if, let's say, Florida State and Clemson, who are the two schools that are suing the ACC, find out of the conference before June 30th, that would make the TV deal and thus the grant of rights invalid because the grant of rights only covers the current, reportedly, the current TV deal with ESPN.

Now, the ACC is adding new members, right? They're about to add SMU, Cal, and Stanford, but they don't officially join the conference until July 1st. So if two teams find a way out by June 30th, this is where the doomsday scenario comes in. If a bunch of things break a certain way, the ACC could be broken by midsummer. And did you realize, Donald,

that if the dinosaurs had not going extinct, humans and dinosaurs may live at the same time? You know, since we're just throwing things out there, regardless of probability, regardless of likelihood, did you know that the sky, if it were red instead of blue, it would be red? Are you aware of that, no, no? I need to say that because I need people to understand just how foolish and nonsensical this is. And I know people love to say, oh, can you talk to folks with this tone where you think you know everything? And I've been wrong in the past. And I'll admit, I am going to be wrong in the future.

We give takes all day. But this is one that I am as confident in as I've ever been as confident in anything. Wow. So you all believe, and let me get this straight, okay, because the story here that we're supposed to believe is that these court cases, which were expected to take years up, not a year, years up with an S, are going to be wrapped up by June. 30th when neither was filed in 2023, if I'm correct, right? Both were filed in 24, right? Yeah, I think that's right. Early, early this year, the Clemson one being

more recent, the Florida State one, I think it was after January 1st or sometime around that. Okay. And so, with that in mind, they now reduced these from years to months. And oh, oh, I'm sorry. Because again, everybody, you know, I don't talk politics on any of my shows, but whoever came up with no child left behind, there's a special place for you. There's a special place for you, and it's not the good place. Okay. Eleanor Seltrup and Cheedy went to the same place that you're going.

If you do know anything about the show, the good place, you'll know exactly what I'm talking about. With that means... It's really over my head, by the way. Oh, long story short, they thought they were in a good place. They were in the bad place. They were in hell. That's where they're going, because this conspiratorial thinking is foolish. So these court cases that were supposed to take years are now going to take months.

right Donald? And not only are they going to take months, not only are they going to take months. If they do run the course of year, Clemson and Florida State are just going to sit out. They're going to take their ball and go home and trigger the collapse of ACC, right, Dono? Well, here's where it gets a little bit more, a little bit more nuanced and layered. Now, I don't think this is completely nonsensical. I just think it's very unlikely, okay? And while we're using analogies here, you know, I just, I've seen the movie a couple times, but I was on a flight and I was watching, I enjoy this movie, Oppenheimer, okay?

And so Robert Oppenheimer, when he's heading up the Manhattan Project to develop, and it was a successful development of the first atomic bomb, we all know the history behind that. One of the physicists on his team came up with this equation that determined that there was a probability above zero that setting off an atomic bomb would create a chain reaction that would ignite the entire Earth's atmosphere and completely destroy the planet. Now, that obviously didn't happen, thankfully, right? I mean, the atomic bombs terribly destructive and awful, but they did not ignite the entire atmosphere. So I think for this idea of an ACC implosion by June 30th would basically be that Oppenheimer equation of igniting the entire atmosphere when you set that thing off.

So the way that this, yeah. Let me just ask this, okay, because I know the chances higher at zero, but I want to ask this. Let's say that Florida State and Clemson said, forget letting this play out in the courts. We're going to sit down and not play. Does that not then trigger an entirely new lawsuit for, hey, ESPN just ransacked our deal as a direct result of these two teams deciding not to play while we already have a case going on in court, which in essence guarantees you're losing the case. Right, right. That's a great point. It's so, this is like, I don't, and I don't want to talk about a lot of things that are going on in today's world because that gets in a different territory.

But the conspiratorial thinking that has developed in the psyche of fans in like a year or two years is like, it's unlike anything I've ever seen. I don't, again, the series of events that would have to happen and the way that it would have to happen, the way that it would have to happen, the way they would have to go and who would be hurt by it, a lot of people are seeing this like one track mind of like my team as the hero and therefore they're going to have plot armor and everything they do, everything's going to work out perfectly. Well, guess what? Guess what? Even in documentaries or, or, you know, docu dramas like of miracles and men, the U.S. hockey team beat the USSR and all that. You know, even in that, there were other things that were going on. There were different things. things that trickled out of that.

If the U.S. doesn't win that game, Detroit may never get the Russian six that lead to them getting a Stanley Cup. Like, these are the things that people need to think about. And I know that y'all are thinking, well, that sounds like a good consequence. But think about that in the negative sense. Think about what happens if your school decides to sit out, and they're then liable to have to pay out every ACC school for the ACC's destruction. Are y'all okay with that?

Like, y'all think that that's something Clemson and Ford State, even if they did win the original lawsuit. Are y'all not seeing that that's a possibility of triggering a new lawsuit to say, oh, by the way, y'all not have to, sure, you won this first one. So you can go to the SEC and get those huge TV deals. You go to Big Ten and get those huge TV deals. But you have to pay out each and every team for this amount, for this period of time, based on your access to sit out.

Like, what are we? Y'all starting to piss me off. Y'all starting to piss me off. And it's, I'm going back to you, Dono, but I just don't get it, that we have to go through this chain of every domino has to fall just perfectly. Everything has to work exactly perfectly. You can't hit the middle of the next domino. You got to hit the exact upper left hand corner where the six dot is or else everything goes

wrong. And people are like, yeah, that makes sense. This sequence of events is very likely. What? Now, there are other possibilities being thrown out. I'm going to really piss you off on the other side that would require a ton of cooperation from conference members. So we're going to talk about NC State getting praise from one of the most unlikely people out there,

but also getting criticism from a major national publication as their run into the final four is going to be this Saturday night, 6.09 p.m. against Purdue to try to reach that final game. You want to keep it locked right here to Locked on ACC. Locked on ACC is proudly brought to you by Amazon Fire TV. I don't know what I would do without my fire TV stick. Live sports, in demand sports, keeping me informed on all the things we need to be informed on, because fire TV is your destination for sports from live games to highlights to in-depth analysis. Fire TV offers amazing viewing experiences with smart TVs, as well as that fire TV stick, which you can plug into your existing TV, providing you access to millions of movies and TV episodes,

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your first listen and your first watch today. We're free wherever you get your podcast. We're free on YouTube. We're part of the Lockdown podcast network, your team every day. And hey, if you guys are watching Fox Sports and ESPN on your TV all day, do you ever have to mute the volume

to deal with all that shouting? Make the switch to lockdowns. Today, a free 24-7 sports streaming channel program for you every day to bring you the biggest stories without all the screaming. Locked on sports today brings you can't miss analysis, opinions and news, streaming 24-7 on YouTube or the free Amazon Fire TV channels app, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. All right. So the other part of this implosion scenario, Kenton, because there are multiple ways where

this collapse or implosion could supposedly happen by June 30. If there is a realization that whether it happens by June 30th or if it happens at some point within the next couple of years that Clemson and Florida State are definitely going to get out, which by the way, I could see that happening, right? I don't know how long it's going to take, but I don't know if reconciliation with Florida State could ever happen with the ACC. I think sooner or later they're going to get out. Clemson. Yeah, Clemson may be the same thing, but I don't think the relationship is as beyond repair there. but at some point Florida State and Clemson are probably going to find a way out. Okay.

So the other part of this scenario is other ACC schools realize, hey, Clemson and Florida State, they're about to get out ESPN supposedly, I don't know if this is true or not. Reportedly, ESPN has already decided not to extend the ACC's TV deal beyond 2027. They have a clause reportedly where they can choose to extend or not extend. supposedly they've already decided not to do that. Other ACC schools may realize, hey, if we're about to lose Clemson and Florida State, we're not going to have much leverage with what's left. So why don't we get a majority of eight together to vote for the dissolution of the conference?

And then the crazy part of this scenario is that then every ACC team would become independent, but they would keep the same TV schedule just independent for next season, while they all have a year to find their soft landing spot. Again, it seems incredibly improbable. And listen, in this era, you know, people are just assuming Big Ten SEC are going to be welcoming in new members or the Big 12. You know, I know our guy Drake has been all over this and doing a fantastic job that the Big 12 could, you know, bring in teams like Miami and whoever else, right? But, you know, for the record, Big Ten and SEC publicly, you know, for whatever that's worth, don't seem interested in expanding in the immediate future.

I'm not sure where the Big 12, who did just add a bunch of teams stand on that. But the idea that a majority would vote to disband the ACC within the next three months, again, seems incredibly unlikely. Where do these teams go? Which eight make that decision? And where do those eight go? because again, you know, it's, this isn't like a relationship where you're like, hey, I'm going to leave because I think I can do better by myself than I can with you, right? This isn't like an interpersonal relationship between two people.

This is very different. There are millions of dollars tied up into this thing, millions for everybody on the lot. And so all of these teams, listen, everybody keeps saying that all of these teams are, you know, know that the doomsday clock keeps speeding up the doomsday clock keeps being and i just i have yet to hear answers for very basic questions that i ask people down on and that's when i know that i'm hearing malarkey when you can answer the basics then i know okay there's some legitimacy to what's going on here right and mind you for the people who feel like oh can you just such an acc believer that you think that i said florida state and clemson are the two schools that have the the foothole before any

lawsuits were filed. I said, those were two schools. They got the foothole to go elsewhere. Everybody else, where are you going to go, Bighead? Yeah. Where are you going? And I'm not going to call out any schools, but where are the eight teams, eight, so eight different teams have to come to an agreement together. Hey, our contract's going to be up in 2027, so let's just go ahead and get on out of Dodge while the getting is good. What eight teams know that there's a soft landing spot for them? and they won't end up like the pack two or two pack, whatever you want to call it,

out there with Washington State and Oregon State. Well, and it's something that I need more clarity on. Like, for example, people can look right now and say, hey, like the Big 12 TV deal,

pretty comparable to the ACC's TV deal. But then if you're talking about the Big 12, essentially like bringing in four or five ACC castoffs, hold on, doesn't that mean you've got more teams to distribute the same amount of money to? Are you actually then making comparable TV revenue? That's the part I don't get. Is there just an assumption of a quick renegotiation for more money?

Because I haven't heard that assumption being the case. Again, I love me a Marvel movie. Love me a superhero movie. Love the Batman trilogy, you know, with Christian Bailey and all that. Love it. Oh, great movies. Our schools don't have plot armor. None of them.

None of them. Miami doesn't have it. NC State doesn't have it. The Dirty Foot Club doesn't have it. Duke doesn't have it. Nobody has it. Nobody has plot armor. We are in the real world where you must deal with real life ramifications. I get it. We all like to believe that our team is the protagonist. I get it. We all like to think that our team is the white hat. We're the good guy. We're going to do whatever we want to do. And somehow the writers are going to protect us through it all. You're living in the real world, buddy. I will tell you, though, because I love a good comic book movie. when June 30th rolls around for as unlikely as I think this chain reaction is, right? It's like the Oppenheimer chain reaction is unlikely as I think it is. It's like I remember, do you remember around the 10, 15 years ago when a bunch of people claimed,

hey, the rapture is definitely happening on such and such date and time? You better believe I was like checking my phone. Like, is anybody disappearing? Let me refresh my Twitter notifications. I will be doing that on June 30. if just to keep up with what's going on, if anything. But if June 30 comes and passes, then you and me both, but I think it'll come and pass like Y2K,

like the day in 2012, like the day in 2012 that was supposed to be, that was it, that was all. It's going to be very equivalent to those things, because again, we are in the real world. This is playing out in the courts. This will take years to play out. Now, if we're talking about a dissolution around the 2027 mark, that's a very different.

story. That's what I'm saying. That's a different story because now the money that I'm talking about that's holding everybody together, once that money is off the table, you can see anything happen. But right now, there is no way to unilaterally pull that money. These two schools, even if they decided, we're going to sit down and not play. Okay, good for you. Just make sure that you pay everybody for our time and for the agreement that you signed and you can go a bunch away. You can go a bunch of way. Now you got a second lawsuit on your hands that, again, regardless of where that one sign, now you're talking about the right to boycott work.

And I don't know about you, but are South Carolina and Florida known as very pro-labor states? Are they known as very like labor friendly, you know, like, hey, you can just stop. I can't speak for South Carolina, but I can speak for Florida. No.

Historically, both are very much so not that. Okay. That's just the facts. So if you're want to sit down and say, we're going to file another suit in our states, Well, good luck. Good luck. Because then, again, you open up another can of worms outside of sports with that one. That, again, people don't think about how, you know, I talk a lot about the blacksmith makes the horse shoe so the horse can ride.

The horse can deliver the message. The horse delivers the message. It says, fortify the east. You win the war. People are at the horseshoe stage of this, not realizing you are having an amazing effect on what happens here. This is going to be a moment that goes down in the history of sports and the American psyche. And I know people are going to say, well, the ACC is that important. Sure.

But the laws and what happens in terms of, you know what, we're no longer doing exploitive contracts. If you sign a contract that doesn't work out for you or if whoever you sign your contract with doesn't work in your best interest, oh, you can void it. That opens something so different for so many layers. everybody keeps imagining, well, no, sports is different. Sports is just sports. And sports will stick to sports. How many times has sports changed the world outright? How many times has a ruling been made in sports that then went to everything and permeated to every part of society? That's what we're not realizing here because everybody's so obsessed with the idea that my team is a special good boy and we're going to go and get 50 million a year from the SEC

and Big Ten because that's what we deserve all 16 of us. I'm sorry to tell you, most of the brands are not that. Most of them are not. And even the brands that are, you signed the contract. That is an objective truth. Whether or not you like the contract, you signed it. Here it is. You got to live with it.

Coming up next, NC State is on such a magical run into this final four. They're even getting praised by Mike Shishvsky. You want to keep it locked right here to locked on AC. guys, I know you are keeping it locked to Fanduel. And this has been our time to shine, guys. I know the tournament's winding down to it closed. You still have the women's final four. We got NHL action.

There's so much going on in the world of sports. There's always soccer going on. UFC fights. I'm having the time of my life with Fandul. The sports calendar is loaded, and Fanduels make it even more exciting to get in on the action. Because right now, new customers get $200 in bonus bets with any winning $5 bet.

That's $200 you can use to best. the tournament, MLB, NBA, NHL, and so much more. Just visit fanduel.com slash locked on and make your first bet a big win. Fan duel, America's number one sports book. Thank you so much for making Locked on ACC, your first listen and your first watch today. Alex Dono from Locked on Cain's, Kenton Gibbs, from Lockedon Wolfpack. And Kenton, I know you're probably a little bit shocked to see Mike Shoshiewski, of all people, praising NC states run into the final.

I mean, how can you not? And even Coach K is jumping on board. Here's what Coach K had to say this morning on Sirius XM radio. Kevin Keats is on remarkable job with this team. And they had a lot of newness, a lot of newness. And, you know, when a team believes in each other, their coach, they find that belief, their offense, defense, everything goes better, the belief. It's not X's and O's, it's belief.

And I call it like finding religion. And NC State found religion in the ACC tournament. And part of it, sometimes people find religion after seeing a miracle. And they had a miracle against Virginia. Right. They're down by three with 5.4 seconds. And Virginia's best free throw shooters shooting a one-on-one. So I'm going to stop it right there.

And we can unpack what Coach Kay had to say because I do want to contrast this with a more analytical side of NC states run. But first and foremost, Kenton, I know that as an NC state guy, you're probably not. too interested in getting praised by Coach K, but I definitely got a kick out of seeing this. You know, he's one of the greatest of all time, regardless of sport, regardless of level. He's one of the greatest of all time. So I'm going to smile and not begrudgingly. I'm smiling when I say this. I will say, thank you, Coach K. It is so greatly appreciated here in Rowley. We appreciate you, you know, telling us that we found religion and, you know, explaining this run through that belief because you're absolutely right. The belief is definitely there.

By the way, NC State long-term injury specialist, Luke Buffum, has a very interesting story about Coach K and going to the monitors to get a call reversed before that was even a thing. But we won't talk about that right now. We won't talk about that right now. We will thank Coach K graciously and we will move on here. And I think talking about, you know, quote-unquote finding religion, I think it's a good, good way to explain what can happen to teams like NC State in March. And like I experienced it with Miami last year. Now, their run came to an end in that semi-final game. Maybe NC State can do better than Miami did last year. Miami ran into the buzzsaw that's known as Yukon in the semifinals last season. But I think we've seen this happen a number of times that sometimes things can happen

late in season. For NC State, they've won nine straight games. And that included five wins and five days in the ACC tournament, which was exceptional. We see runs like this happen from time to time through March Maddis, through conference tournaments and NCAA tournaments where I don't think you can just quantify that with stats and analytics. It's why I appreciate what Coach Kay had to say about it. Because I was reading something Kenton this afternoon or yesterday afternoon of the Washington Post, which basically just says, hey, NC State is lucky beyond, and luck

does come into this, obviously. It's not taking anything away from NC State. but they do try to take something away from NC State. They say put simply, the Wolfpack has benefited greatly from its tournament opponents, missing shots and unusually high rates. According to Bart Torvick's data, North Carolina State allowed 101.2 points per 100 possessions during the regular season, but during the ACC tournament, that dropped to just 98.5 per 100 possessions. And in the NCAA tournament, that has improved again to only 89.5 points per 100 possessions.

So hold on. How can you say that, yeah, because in the regular season, that's how many points they gave up. Why do you automatically jump to? It's a statistical anomaly that you've gotten better in the month of March. Can it just be NC states playing better? Because Kenton, when I read the wording there, benefited greatly from its tournament opponents missing shots at unusually high rates. Are you not giving NC State any credit for forcing those missed shots? somebody said to Marquette, according to shot quality, should have won the game by 14 points. And then somebody put up a video of all of Marquette's missed threes because somebody talked about how miserable their three-point shooting wasn't that game. Marquette had a total of, I want to say, four or five wide open threes that they missed. Every other three was contested.

There was a close out. There was a hand up. There was somebody right there. And I'm going to tell you this, and I mean this from the bottom of my heart. if you have watched NC State play for a good sample size during this regular season, yes, this is surprising, but not the most surprising thing in the world. Because there were multiple things that happened this year. You want to talk about statistical anomalies?

Casey Morsell improved his three-point shooting every year of his career to become a 40% three-point shooter last year. You want to know what he did this regular season? About 29%. Yeah. Well, why does nobody factor in that in and saying, and Casey finding his shot is not like a tournament anomaly that's like, oh my God, Casey is doing things that we never could have imagined. He was a 40% guy last year. DJ Burns, America's sweetheart, America's darling right now.

If you watched him last year during the tournament run, if you watched him last year during the regular season, you know just how special he is. And yet, this season, he looked out of shape at times. look like he was going through battling some illnesses and throwing up in the hallway in some games and all that. And he, you know, credit to him. He's gotten it right in the postseason. But again, if you watched him last year,

you would know from looking at this year, well, maybe this year's stats are the statistical anomaly. But for whatever reason, we look at, well, what you did during this regular season is all that matters. And I'm going to say this. Get these nerds out of my sports. Get them out. Good amount.

If Moneyball was so good, the Oakland A's would have multiple, multiple rings. I mean, they made a movie about them without even winning a ring. It's crazy. Do they have one? Do they have one to your knowledge, Donald Stano? Did they ever get one? No, they got a movie, but no rings. Okay.

All that juice Jose Casaco was taken. All these amazing thoughts about he gets on base, he just gets on base, he just gets on base, he gets on base, he gets guys out, he just get guys out. For whatever reason, those nerds over there in Oakland couldn't put together a World Series team. Huh. Interesting. You know, there's a funny thing that I say when I do believe that the analytics should be used in certain ways to kind of measure off and taper up, hey, man, this is your worst shot. It's a piece of the pie is what I do. Exactly. Exactly. To me, it's like, it's like a bathroom in your house, right? Like, you don't obviously own your home for the bathroom or own your apartment for the bathroom. But if you came home one day and there was nowhere for you to shop. or remove the waste from your body, there would be a problem, right? It's the same thing. It's useful.

It's not everything. It's important. It's not everything because the analytics cannot measure certain things. The analytics cannot measure that NC State had the can't get rightitis. They can't measure the fact that if you watch them play this year, there were games where they were locked down defensively against some of the best offensively. And there were also games where they lit up some of the best defenses in the ACC. But there were also games where, for whatever reason, the two just couldn't come together.

They played great defense, and their offense just, they played great offense, and their defense was a bunch of traffic calls. You're right. They have bought in, and they have believed, but you know what? There's no horseshoe up this team's behind. This is a bunch of players that are playing into the scheme, that are buying into the scheme, that are doing things the right way, hitting their shots. Okay? Is there some luck involved? I'll say this.

My coach Dennis Parker, I love him at death. He's one of the best defensive coordinators in America for my money. He always said, can or actually everybody in my high school called me Gibbs, but he said gives, luck is when preparation meets opportunity. The wolf pack were prepared when the opportunity presented itself. And in the words of a very, very, very great man who is no longer with us, their bags were packed when time came to go to the final. they were ready. They believed that they could do this. Their bags were packed, and now they're

going to feelings. Well said. Now, something else we had in the rundown we can get to tomorrow tease this, because it's going to be a topic for the next few days. Our keys for NC State against Zach Eadie, because he is an exceptional player. He also gets officiated in interesting ways, which can make it even tougher. So we will talk more about that on tomorrow's episode of Locked-on-ACC. He is Kenton Gibbs, who is a former NC State Wolfpack defensive tackle. So when he's screaming at the nerds, he has a good soapbox to do that from, have it actually played the game at a high level. I am Alex Dono from Lockdown Caines, and we will talk to you guys again next time on another episode of Lockdown ACC, part of the awesome Lockdown Podcast Network. Your team every day.