Locked On ACC - Daily College Football & Basketball Podcast - SHOCK: ACC College Football Playoff FATE Hangs by a THREAD—Will Miami Hurricanes and ACC Champ Be OUT?

Starting point is 00:00:00 Well, based on the new CFP committee's rankings, the ACC could end up anywhere between two to zero teams in the college football playoff. Here's the situation. You are locked on ACC, your daily podcast on the Atlantic Coast Conference. Part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. Shout out to the everydayers and thank you so much for making Locked on ACC your first listen. We're available free wherever you get your podcast. We're free on YouTube. We're part of the Lockdown Podcast Network.

Starting point is 00:00:40 Now the number one sports podcast network, your team every day. He is Kenton Gibbs, former NC State defensive linemen and co-host of Lockdown Wolfpack. I am Alex Dono, host of Lockdown Keynes, and today's episode is brought to you by Fanduel. Right now, new customers can bet just $5. And if your bet wins, you'll get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. Download FanDuel today. We'll talk about the matchups. for that ACC championship game coming up on Saturday between UVA and Duke.

Starting point is 00:01:08 It is a rematch from just a few weeks ago. We will break it down. We do have ACC players of the year have been crowned. We'll talk about that. But Kenton, let's talk about these ACC realities in the college football playoff. Are you bracing yourself for the possibility that this entire Power 4 conference could very well be left without any representation in the C. I'm absolutely preparing myself for that for two reasons. Number one, because the committee is trash, it's their reasoning is without reason. It is quite literally the prime example of I start

Starting point is 00:01:49 with a conclusion and then I work to create data that supports that conclusion instead of I look at the data and then reach my conclusion based on that data, number one. And number two, and the smaller reason, but it's still a personal gripe of mine anyway. ACC fans can't see the forest from the trees. ACC ADs and athletic programs cannot see the forest from the trees, which is why everybody was not banging the table screaming. Florida State was robbed. There were certain fan bases who are now on the table to be robbed,

Starting point is 00:02:21 saying, ha ha, look at you guys, you losers. And a very simple concept from a movie called Planet of the Apes could have helped us all up. Ape together, strong. You know, ACC together, strong. ACC when Miami laugh at Florida State. And ACC when Florida State laugh at Miami, weak. Because we cannot all get on the same page for, hey, guys, you cannot leave this team out.

Starting point is 00:02:48 So, again, it's ingranted. What are ADs and what are administrators and what Phillips isn't doing? I'd say that's about 20% of it, 15 to 20% of it. but the lion's share of the doomsday scenario is due to the committee actively working to rob us by saying SMU doesn't deserve to be right. They were bad out of conference. Oh, you know, Notre Dame's got a hell of a resume. Notre Dame has four teams on their schedule that won three or less games. Three or less.

Starting point is 00:03:22 I'll give you another one. Notre Dame, eight of the six of the last eight teams that Notre Dame beat had defenses ranked between 104, 5th to 127. That was the type of competition they were going up against. So, yeah. Their losses are great. Losses are fantastic. Their best win was against a 9 and 3 USC who will not be a playoff teams.

Starting point is 00:03:48 They didn't beat a playoff team this year, but their losses are fantastic, Kenyon. But that's my point exactly, right? We were told, oh, we're not going to judge off the losses. We're going to judge off the totality of the picture. to me, the totality of the picture, head-to-head matters most. That matters first and foremost in my mind. If there are two teams with similar resumes, when you lined it up, what happened? And if you don't want to play, I keep hearing this, well, Miami was at home,

Starting point is 00:04:18 and it was the last second field goal, and home field gives you three points and all that. Well, why don't y'all do the season opening game in Jerry World? Why don't you all do the seasoning open game and the Chick-fil-A kickoff, the Duke Mayo, kickoff. Why don't you do one of the other kickoff moments? Because Notre Dame knows they have the cachet to ask for what they want in terms of football, even if this thing is typically between the team from this conference and the team from this conference. If Notre Dame was to knock on some doors and say, I want to play in that, I doubt that they turn them down. So to me, this is ultimately a scenario where we're talking about computers, we're talking about rankings, we're talking about

Starting point is 00:04:56 what ifs. And ifs were fifths, me and Donald would be stone cold drunk. And here. we are, as sober as can be, not blacked out at all, because when we look at the real world, what has actually happened matters. And for some reason, college football seems to be the only sport where very similar resumes to where these two are bumping up against each other, but a head-to-head does not get one team in over another. And it's quite shameful in my opinion. Yeah, all right, so the scenario that could see the ACC, which is possible with zero teams in the college football playoff, it plays out like this. And we'll talk about why we don't expect this to happen, but if Duke beats Virginia this weekend and Duke is crowned ACC champion, they're going to be eight and five, and they're going to be ranked behind, very likely will be ranked behind two group of five conference winners. So there is no auto bid for the ACC.

Starting point is 00:05:56 auto bids go to the five highest ranked conference champions. If Duke wins the ACC, they will likely be behind a couple of G5 champs, so Duke wouldn't be in. Now, Miami is the highest ranked team in the ACC, with the CFP rankings on Tuesday night, kept Miami at number 12. So unless Miami gets a lot of help and like a come-to-Jesus meeting from the committee, Miami will likely be on the outside looking in because you have to be top 10. If you're at large, you can't be number 12. you have to be top 10.

Starting point is 00:06:27 So that scenario. Duke wins the ACC championship. The committee doesn't move Miami up. The ACC is left with zero representation. Now on the flip side, Kenton, if Virginia, as they should do, wins the ACC championship game this Saturday. UVA at 11 and 2 obviously gets the ACC's conference or the one of those five conference champ auto bids. So they're in. And then there is a possibility.

Starting point is 00:06:53 And the committee chair, Hunter Eurecheck, you know, it's hard to take anything he says seriously because he contradicts himself every 30 seconds. But he did leave the door open to if Miami were to find themselves ranked directly next to one spot behind Notre Dame, then they might actually honor the head to head because his logic to this point, there's always been teams between them. Right. So it's not just Miami versus Notre Dame. It's Miami versus BYU versus Alabama versus Notre Dame, so they haven't honored the head-to-head. So the scenario from Miami, a lot is writing on Texas Tech this weekend. If Texas Tech beats BYU for the second time this year in the Big 12 championship game,

Starting point is 00:07:40 BYU likely obviously drops out of the playoff field. And then maybe Miami and Notre Dame are ranked back to back, and perhaps the committee decides, hey, And I don't know why they would just realize it this Sunday when they didn't realize it this past Tuesday. So I don't think that this necessarily happens, but the committee did leave it open to. Well, maybe if they're right next to each other, Miami jumps over Notre Dame. Now, there's also the Alabama issue. Alabama's ranked in front of them both.

Starting point is 00:08:11 So if Alabama loses to Georgia in the SEC championship game, they probably drop at least one spot. but did they keep them maybe between Miami and Notre Dame, so they still have a buffer? Does Alabama fall out of the field completely? I find that hard to believe because it's BMA, it's the SEC. But, you know, definitely a BYU loss would help Miami's case and maybe the ACC gets two in. Donnell, that doesn't make sense.

Starting point is 00:08:40 And I have to say this out loud. And I need everybody to understand this. Whether BYU wins or loses, they will not stay in that exact. same spot. Even if BYU beats Texas Tech, you can't leave them right where they are because they just beat. What is Texas Tech now? The number five team in the nation

Starting point is 00:08:59 is something on a number four, I think. Number four, they've got to jump up. That space between Notre Dame and Miami, unless this committee is just really bad at doing writing for a drama show, right? Unless this is days of our lives,

Starting point is 00:09:15 college football edition, and we can see from a mile away, hey, wait, that's his twin brother. That's not really him. He's left-handed. That guy keeps grabbing stuff with his right, very intentionally and very loudly. There's no way that BYU stays in that exact spot. Either they will have a loss that drops them.

Starting point is 00:09:34 But I think the point is, I think if BYU wins, there's a chance both Miami and Notre Dame fall out, actually. Okay. So see, now that makes more sense. That makes more sense to me. I just, I kept hearing like, oh, BYU, if they. move from being right there. And I'm like, don't they have a game? Yeah, they're going to move one way or the other. For sure. But if they move down, it gives Miami a chance. If BYU moves up, then might, then Notre Dame and Miami might be ranked 11 and 12, and they both say

Starting point is 00:10:03 goodbye playoff. Ah, okay, okay. Well, knowing your mark in the show me that he is trying to get his teams in, watch those referees. Watch those referees. Go check their fan doles. Go check their fan do's. But in all seriousness, this is a moment where I sit here and I say at the end of the day, we should not be having to have a come to Jesus moment or a last second realization to say, hey, Miami is better than the team that they beat. Miami's better than the team that has the exact same record as them that they have beaten head to head. In my mind, you being a team head to head is the ultimate tie break for me. If there's ever a moment where I'm saying, I can understand if Miami is a three-loss team,

Starting point is 00:10:48 and we're having this conversation after they got shocked by NC State or something like that. Then I'm like, oh, okay, I get it. Notre Dame needs to be in. Yeah, they won head-to-head, but dissimilar schedules or dissimilar records, and you've got three losses to there too. Great, I understand. We're talking about teams with the same record. And you're telling me it's more important to lose to good teams than to beat good teams.

Starting point is 00:11:12 Because between the two, who has the better best win? Miami. Between the two, between the two, I still don't understand the strength of schedule and strength of record and how that's worked out for Notre Dame because it must be that the teams that beat them are pushing it up. Because if we're talking about what actually happened on the field, of the wins that you had in this massive winning street, some of them have come against teams that did not have a post.

Starting point is 00:11:43 I don't think people understand. Syracuse just signed a rapper by the name of Tusi. The young man is 25 and hasn't played football in seven years and he's under six feet tall. That's a real thing that happened. Yeah. As much as everybody loves Fred Brown, we got to be honest. That's the thing that any other Power 4 school, everybody will be looking at what the hell is going on here? Well, can I get, hold on, let's take a pause.

Starting point is 00:12:10 I'll give you Notre Dame's, Notre Dame's actual resume when we come back. And it's the reason why we say their best wins or their losses. So we'll talk about that. We have to talk about the UVA versus Duke matchup this weekend because, again, there's a lot riding on Virginia winning this game. You want to keep it locked right here? We're only getting started on this brand new episode of Locked on ACC. The holidays are officially here, which means gift hunting season is on.

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Starting point is 00:14:12 All right. So again, like Kenton, you know, I guess I would maybe better understand the situation if Notre Dame had a bunch of like incredible victories, right? Like, oh, they, they lost to Miami and they lost to Texas A&M. Like, those are both really good losses. So surely for them to be ranked in front of a team that has the same record and beat them, they must be going out there like beating top five teams day. and day out. Here's Notre Dame's resume this year. They beat two and ten Purdue powerhouse of the Big Ten. Two and ten. They beat them 56 to 30. So they allowed 30 points against the boiler makers. They beat two and ten Arkansas, 56 to 13. All right, so they got some style points against a two and ten team. They beat eight and four G5, Boise State, 28 to seven. A side note on that. Miami

Starting point is 00:15:05 dominated USF, who dominated Boise State this season. Notre Dame beat NC State. Sorry, Kenton, 36 to 7, the team that Miami beat 41 to 7. NC State, well, what did they finish, Kenton? 7 and 5. 75, yes, sir. 7 and 5 NC State. Their best win, Notre Dame was against a non-playoff team, 9 and 3 U.S.C., 34 to 24.

Starting point is 00:15:30 So their best win came against a team that will not be in the playoffs. They beat Navy, 49 to 10. They did not respect our troops. They beat a service academy. They beat Pitt, 37 to 15, who Miami beat 38 to 7. Now, they really flex because they beat Syracuse 70 to 7, kind of disregarding the fact that it like, you know, Miami beat Syracuse 38 to 10. So, you know, more style points for Notre Dame, but Miami at least faced a scholarship quarterback, right?

Starting point is 00:15:59 Syracuse, sorry, Notre Dame faced a scholarship lacrosse player when they played against Syracuse. So it's not exactly the same. And they beat Stanford, 49 to 20, who Miami beat 40. 22 to 7. So like, does that, does that resume look so much better for Notre Dame where he say, you know what, not only are the loss is great, but the wins are fantastic. So we have to rank them in front of a team that beat them. I absolutely not. Absolutely not. And here's my whole thing about it, right? If we're looking at this situation and saying, well, let's look at the difference between

Starting point is 00:16:34 Miami and Notre Dame's records and all that good stuff, right? What is, Notre Dame's record against P4 teams with a winning record. Okay, so you got 0-1, 0-2, 1 and 2, 2, and that's it. Oh, I'm sorry, 3-2 because of pit. 3-2 because of pit. So that's where they're at with this. Is that impressive of a resume? 3-2?

Starting point is 00:17:01 Is that impressive to where, again, you're going to exclude a Miami team that, I mean, if you look at what they had done, it's a very, very similar picture. If you look at what Miami has done against power four teams only. So I'm taking away one of their best wins in South Florida, taken out of way, wiping it off the table and saying only power four teams with winning records. You've got one and all after playing Notre Dame. You've got one in one after playing Louisville. You've got one and two after playing SMU. You've got two and two and after NC State, three and two after Pitt.

Starting point is 00:17:38 So last time I checked, is that not the exact same? Is that not the exact same? Only difference being we lined it up and I beat you? That's, that's, so you're getting the benefit of, and this is why I refuse to hear Texas is whining. Oh, we're going to stop playing those big weanies in Columbus. Everybody cancel your hard game. Because Notre Dame right now is getting love.

Starting point is 00:18:08 for strength of schedule and strength of record on the backs of what it can't be on the backs of solely the teams that they've beaten it's on the backs of the fact that their two losses are two playoff teams that's what they're getting off of so if i was texas give me all a tough team don't put sam houston then go play ohio state then play michigan then go ahead and play u sc then go ahead and play Miami. You know why? Because the committee is saying, oh, well, if you lose to those big strong guys, oh, we'll give

Starting point is 00:18:41 you the benefit because them beating you isn't as good as you losing to the right teams, which is complete in total Milwaukee. Yeah, that's very well said. All right, so this Saturday at 8 p.m. in Charlotte, we're going to get a

Starting point is 00:18:57 rematch between the Virginia Cavaliers, 10 and 2 against the Duke Blue Devils, we finished their season seven and five somehow get into the ACC championship game. We already went over that earlier this week. I don't want to make myself feel like an idiot again talking about that a second time.

Starting point is 00:19:13 Now, here's the Kent, these teams played each other on November 15th. So not what, third to last game of the season for both of them. Just a couple of weeks ago they matched up. And UVA in Durham and Duke's home stadium beat him out 34 to 17. Game wasn't even that close.

Starting point is 00:19:33 UVA was up 34 to 3 in the fourth quarter. And Duke put up, they outscored him 14 to 3 in the final frame. They did not have an answer for Jamari Taylor, the star running back from Virginia. They did pick off Chandler Morris a couple of times. He threw for over 300 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions. But this matchup was not close the first time they squared off. Now UVA is only favorite, I think, by four, four and a half points the second time around. But what am I missing here?

Starting point is 00:20:07 Like what would lead people to believe that the Duke Blue Devils, after losing to this team at home, three weeks later can beat them on a neutral site? It's because people don't watch the games. Folks are lazy and are not actually watching the games to see what happened. A lot of people say, well, you know, that fumble, you know, Duke was on a hell of a drive before that fumble completely derailed the game for him in the third. quarter well let's let's go ahead and look at this shall we dono let's let's do the drive charts here okay i'm going to read you duke's drive chart up until that fumble okay and we'll even count that fumble as a touchdown we'll say they don't fumble near the end zone and then the 78 yard run doesn't happen punt punt punt punt field goal punt punt touchdown that's it that's it that's all their

Starting point is 00:20:57 first half drives up until the third quarter second drive of the of the third quarter that's it that's that's what we got there that's what we got we got one field goal in the entire first half and then even starting off the second half you got an immediate punt yeah i mean what are we really doing here what are we this i'm telling you right now i think that this virginia duke game is one where you're easily going to see not only and again i'm telling you all that responsibly i am not a betting degenerate that That is Alex Donnell, my wonderful, beautiful co-host over there. Do not bet on this irresponsibly, but I'm telling you,

Starting point is 00:21:38 I would take not only the money line on this one. I take the spread as well. I think that Virginia wins this game handily and comfortably because Duke ain't stopped nobody all year long. And their defense has not gotten particularly better at any point in time in the season. I do not look at them as saying from the first game forward, oh man what a great team this is 17 points allowed against Elon where they finally worn down in the second half and took over that game 45 against Illinois 34 against Tulane 33 against NC State it wasn't until they played a Syracuse team that had guys that couldn't throw the ball as well as Dono's son at quarterback to where they finally their defense finally started to look legit so ultimately I see this as a situation where Virginia is going to win this game handily.

Starting point is 00:22:33 And again, they have allowed teams to do things offensively that they have not repeated in virtually any other game. I mean, how many games did Clemson score 40 plus this year despite having Mr. Heisman's frontrunner at quarterback this year? They did so one other time and that was against Boston College. If your defense is on par with either one of the bills this year, you're stinking. You're stinking.

Starting point is 00:22:59 So I think Chairman Morris, Jamar Taylor and company, get this one done by mom. Yeah, I just think for Duke, the X factor would be get a couple of extra takeaways, and Darien Mensa just has to play out of his mind. Ballistic. One of the best players in the ACC, but he's got to play out of his mind. And you mentioned, like, Duke having that fumble in the Red Zone, but Red Zone turnovers have been an issue for them all year. Like, that was not like a fluky thing that happened in that one game.

Starting point is 00:23:27 So that's, they got to avoid that stuff as well. So I think we are both in agreement of Virginia winning the game and covering that spread. When we come back, big honors for Haynes King. We forgot about Georgia Tech a little bit because they faded at the end of the year. But Haynes King gets honored. Ruben Bain gets honored. You want to keep it locked right here. We're not done yet on locked on ACC.

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Starting point is 00:24:43 So if you want to be right in the middle of the action this season, visit fenduel.com and place your NFL live bets all season long. Fan duel. The game moves fast, and so can you. Thank you so much for making locked on ACC your first listen. You know, Kent and Gibbs earlier this week, we kind of predicted who the ACC players of the year were going to be. And I don't think either of us mentioned Haynes King, who ends up winning overall

Starting point is 00:25:10 player of the year and offensive player of the year in the ACC. Like, did we just kind of, and it's not to say, like you and I are not habitual Haynes King overlookers. Like we've, we've been tout. We've been singing his praise. for the last several years. Feels like he's been in college forever. But I guess maybe we just kind of downplayed Georgia Tech

Starting point is 00:25:30 for the fact that they've struggled at the end of the year. But that was all defensively. Like the struggles were not offensively. That was not on Haynes King. They couldn't stop a nosebleed on defense. So I don't know. Do you have any argument here to Haynes King being named Player of the Year?

Starting point is 00:25:46 Here's my only thing against that. When teams wanted to beat Miami was the strategy, we're going to run at Ruben Bain. We're going to make Ruben Bain defend the run. No. Okay. No, no, I get it, Donald. He's a really good player against the run.

Starting point is 00:26:02 They said, you know what? He's not that good of a pass rusher. So we'll leave him 101 all night long. And that's the strategy. Double Mezador, get those big fellas in the middle, double them, but leave Ruben Bay one-on-one. Was that the strategy, Donald? No, it was not. Strategy was go away as far away from Ruebbaugh.

Starting point is 00:26:22 Ruben Bain is possible. And that brings me to my point. With all due respect to Haynes King, I think offensive player a year, I wouldn't have a problem with that one at all. Here's my problem with him winning overall player year. Team strategy for Georgia Tech was make Georgia Tech throw the ball.

Starting point is 00:26:39 That was what people said. If you make them throw the ball, they will struggle. Grayson Boone and I noted that the NC State game, and that's not to say that he had no success through the air, but in pivotal moments, it was very clear that their passing game was out of scene.

Starting point is 00:26:55 Now, I understand that there are different ways to play the quarterback position, and he happens to play it like a batterer in rap. He happens to play it where running the ball is pivotal to what he does. I'm not denying that. I'm not saying that's not valuable. What I am saying is I struggle to look at that and say, I can give you the same props and love that I would if, I'll give you the same props and love,

Starting point is 00:27:20 even though teams specifically say, the strategy for slowing down their offense because you couldn't contain them. And again, that's much with all due respect to Hayneskin, you couldn't stop them to where it's like, oh, we'll give up 14 points of these guys. But it's difficult for me to say you're the guy when the entire other strategy, the entire strategy of the other team is not to quote unquote make you one dimensional. It's to simply say if they have to throw the ball, I'm not sure the passing game is quite there. So again, I'm not mad at this choice.

Starting point is 00:27:51 I'm not mad at it. You know, these awards, a player of the year and all that, more often than not, their quarterback awards, I'm just saying there were other guys in this conference and I'm like, there was nothing you could do with this young man. And if he had the ability to where you could put the ball in his hands every play and let him decide to get, come on now, come on. There's no way that we would be looking at the same type of situation.

Starting point is 00:28:16 Yeah, so as Kenton alluded to there, so Ruben Bain did win ACC. defensive player of the year. You know, Haynes King has mentioned wins, offensive player of the year and overall player of the year. But Kenton, I did a little research on who has won overall ACC player of the year over the years. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:28:36 I don't think any defensive player has ever won it. So it's like, what, what's the point of that award? Like, why don't you just do an offensive player of the year and a defensive player of the year if you're just going to give overall player of the year to the, to the same guy that you give offensive player of the year to. What's the point? Because I've got this in front of me. The winners in order here, most recent to least recent.

Starting point is 00:29:01 Tell me if you hear a defensive player in this list, I don't. Cam Ward, Jordan Travis, Drake May, Kenny Pickett, Trevor Lawrence, Travis ETN, Travis ETN, Lamar Jackson, Deshawn Watson, James Connor, James Winston, Taj Boyd, David Wilson, who is a Virginia Tech running back, Tyrod Taylor, C.J. Spiller, Jonathan Dwyer, Matt Ryan, Calvin Johnson. Like that's going back to 2006. I could go back even further. I don't see a single defensive player who's ever won ACC player of the year.

Starting point is 00:29:39 So I think that right there explains why Ruben Bain did not win it. Donnell, you and I are both college guys. And this reminds me of when certain sororities would be like, we have a very diverse group and it's all blondes with like one or two brunettes in there. It's like, it's all it's all blondes with blue eyes, but we got two blondes with brown eyes. There you go. There you go.

Starting point is 00:30:02 Their blonde may have come out of a can, I know. But they, the eyes are different. The eyes are different. And they didn't put in contact. So, I mean, that's what this is. And trust me, I'm not saying, oh, you need to give it to other positions just to spice it out. But we all know when it comes to player at a year and all that, now I'm talking about 10 is going to go to a quarterback. That's just the nature of the game. There's only two guys

Starting point is 00:30:24 that are guaranteed to touch the ball every single play, the center and the quarterback. Okay. And the center, his job ain't sexy enough. And they are big fat slabs, not necessarily aesthetically sexy enough to win this award. So when you get that, there's only one person left that touches the ball every play. It's like when we talk about media, we say, if your quarterback ain't here, what's wrong? What's going on? That's your quarterback ain't here. Maybe your quarterback

Starting point is 00:30:52 is a really good player, but he's not the most media trained. He's not the guy that you want in front of cameras. But if you know sports and you know how this thing works, he's going to have to answer a lot of questions because people are going to go up to your left tackle. Hello, Jonathan Arden. How did you do? Da-da-da-da. Yes, please

Starting point is 00:31:08 explain to me, C.C. Banoa. How did you do? do-da-da-da-da-da. It's not going to happen. Carson Beck's going to be the one at the public. Right. I know you're 100% right. Well, congratulations to Haynes King, Rubin Bain. By the way, Malachi Tony, one offensive rookie of the year and overall rookie of the year. So huge shout-out and thank you to Kenton, Gives, doing an awesome job. You can check him out with Grayson Boone on Locked on Wolfpack. Also follow Kenton on X at TGIF underscore Kenton. You can check me out on Locked on Cains and follow me at Alex Donno, and we'll talk to everybody next time on the number one locked on podcast network,

Starting point is 00:31:46 your team every day. We're number one.

Locked On ACC - Daily College Football & Basketball Podcast - SHOCK: ACC College Football Playoff FATE Hangs by a THREAD—Will Miami Hurricanes and ACC Champ Be OUT?

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