Locked On ACC - Daily College Football & Basketball Podcast - SHOCKER: Are Louisville & Virginia On UPSET ALERT? | Miami's Burning Question

Starting point is 00:00:00 One of the trendiest upset picks in the first round of the NCAA tournament involves this ACC team going down. You are Locked-on ACC, your daily podcast on the Atlantic Coast Conference. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Shout out to the Everydayers and thank you so much for making Locked-on ACC your first listen. We're available free. Wherever you get your podcast, we're free on YouTube. We're part of the number one Locked-on podcast network, your team

Starting point is 00:00:38 every day. He is Kenton Gibbs, former NC State defensive linemen and co-host of Lockdown Wolfpack. I am Alex Dono, host of Locked on Cain's. Today's episode is brought to you by Five Hour Energy. Have your cake and drink it too. Birthday cake flavor is back. No fork needed.

Starting point is 00:00:54 Vanilla, cakey flavor, caffeinated kick, and no sugar. It's party time. Order now at Five Hour Energy.com or Amazon. Yeah, we'll talk to some football on this episode. The biggest questions for each ACC team heading into spring. I know spring ball is underway in most places. As a Miami guy, I'm still waiting about another week for spring ball to get going, but it'll be here eventually. I know people on, on Kenton, on UVA in the

Starting point is 00:01:23 NCAA tournament, there's going to be a lot of hot takes for how much they've struggled since winning a national championship seven years ago, struggling in the tournament. I should say, not as much in the regular season. Is UVA built to win it all? Should we take those biases and that PTSD out of the equation? But in terms of possible first round upsets, now, Kenton, I've been listening to is I prepare to fill out my own bracket? I'm a procrastinator.

Starting point is 00:01:51 I'll have that thing done like before the first round games tip off at like noon or whatever it is. Do you fill out your super early or do you procrastinate like me? I'm a procrastinator just like you. Honestly, honestly. I have to make a confession to all my locked on ACC listeners and Donno and before the big man upstairs. I really don't give a damn about who wins and loses in March. It's too complicated, Dono.

Starting point is 00:02:16 Teams that have been great all year, get in the tournament and piss down their leg, teams that barely scraped in by the hairs on their chinny, chin, all of a sudden become great. It's too much. It's too much to try to predict what matchup is good, what matchup is bad. What I try to do instead is find like two or three matchups where I can look like the smartest guy in the room being like, wait a minute. Nobody's talking about this matchup. I think that one's going to go pretty bad for this team. And so far, I've started my research on that. I'm not locked in on it yet.

Starting point is 00:02:48 Yeah. And also like, you know, I'm always trying to be on the quest of filling out a perfect bracket. Do you know there has never, in the history of March bracketeering, there has never been. a verified perfect bracket. Like people don't understand how statistically improbable it is to get. I mean, I guess if you're including the first four in, which a lot of brackets don't, you would have to pick 67 games correctly. You know, for the tournament proper, you'd have to pick 63 games correctly.

Starting point is 00:03:21 There has never been a verified perfect bracket, but it's not going to stop me from trying. And usually my perfect bracket is usually done by the end of the first day, if not the second day. But I've noticed, Kenton, in listening to media brackets and a lot of the popular picks, I've seen the percentages on some of these, I've noticed that a really trendy, highly popular upset pick for the first round is 11-seed USF, knocking off six-seed Louisville. That's going to be a Thursday game in the East region. You know, people who are picking this upset to happen include Jay Billis of ESPN, Bruce Pearl, John Fanta of Fox and NBC. They have publicly picked USF to advance. I was listening to a CBS Bracketology show today, and the hosts were both picking USF to advance against Louisville.

Starting point is 00:04:20 USF Kenton has won 11 straight games while Louisville is, I guess, like, literally limping into the tournament with Mikel Brown being questionable. So that's led a lot of folks, not only having USF win this opening game, but make a little bit of a run into the Sweet 16 or the Elite 8. How do we stop this from happening? Well, Pat Kelsk, how do you feel about this? They're disrespecting you and your team. Now, I will be honest. If Michael Brown is hurt, if he can't go, that puts you in dicey territory.

Starting point is 00:04:53 Because he is, he is the drinkster over there. He is the problem solver for that offense. But I'm going to tell you something. Pat Kelsey's done a hell of a job over there in Louisville. He took him from the Kenny Payne error to being one of the top teams in the conference in his first two years. And y'all are going to tell me that, oh, if Markell Brown ain't 100%, there's no way they beat USF. USF is just too hot. Quick question, Donald.

Starting point is 00:05:21 How many Quad one wins does USF have in that one extreme? Oh, I know I could tell you in a second. I don't know off the top of my head. I'm going to say. I'm going to assume in however long this winning streak is, I'm willing to bet my bottom dollar that they have less than three. I'm willing to bet, or I'm sorry, three or less, I'm willing to bet any amount of money on that.

Starting point is 00:05:44 And so. So I don't, but before I know when they happened, they have three quad one, that's over the full season, three quad one wins, and they have a three and three record in quad one games. But do you see what I'm saying? I said they had three or less during that winning streak.

Starting point is 00:05:59 So it's impossible to, they had more. Yeah. They're not going through some terrible gauntlet and, and just, like, beating up on the, the,

Starting point is 00:06:08 the, the Miami Heat with LeBron James and beating Duke, uh, with Christian Lainter. They're not doing that. And, and this idea that like, oh,

Starting point is 00:06:17 man, they picked up what, one of their three quad one wins was during the 11 game winning streak. It was against Wichita State, which was at the time a quad one opponent. Yeah. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:06:30 I feel very good about the shockers. I feel very good about this one. You can shock the shockers, but the cards are going to fly high all over them, boys. I'm telling you right now, Donna, USF, again, good team. I'm not denying that. But there's a reason I was so sure that they did not have more than three quad one wins in that span. I didn't look up what quads the teams were in, but I saw their schedule. I saw who they played.

Starting point is 00:06:55 I started looking up those teams. Say, wait, are these good teams? Are these really good teams? I came to the conclusion. No, no, they beat some decent teams. Don't get me wrong. But I don't understand why they're the Trinity Pig. And meanwhile, nobody is like, oh, SMU, look out.

Starting point is 00:07:10 Miami of Ohio, they're playing great basketball. And they had the longest winning street. Nobody had Miami of Ohio's winning street. What are we doing here? Louisville and Packett? Yeah, but isn't this the time of year where people out smart themselves? Because you know there's always, a couple of good upsets that happened.

Starting point is 00:07:31 I mean, this would be an 11 against the 6, but there's always a couple of 12 versus five upsets. So people always outsmart themselves to figure out which ones the upsets are going to be. Now, despite the fact that, you know, a couple of big time national analysts have predicted this to happen. And so people will line up like sheep and they'll start picking USF. Like the smart money is still on Louisville. You know, they're favored by five and a half points.

Starting point is 00:07:58 Louisville is on Fanduel. ESPN Analytics actually gives the Cardinals an 81% win probability, which is pretty darn high. Ken Palm is at 73%. So like I guess like the smart money, I'm not sure about covering like the five and a half I guess is a different conversation we could have, but just in terms of advancing like your smart money in your bracket would be on Louisville. But I think that's like the trendiest out of the possible ACC upset picks. Let me get to another one, because I do want to talk about Virginia on this episode. So UVA, who I think is one of the strongest teams in this tournament, period. This team is built to win a national championship,

Starting point is 00:08:39 but people have a muscle memory, and they remember how is Virginia done in the tournament for the past, what, six years since they won a championship in 2019? They haven't won an NCAA tournament game since that championship. They famously fell victim to the first 16 versus one upset ever. And even though it's a completely different roster and a completely different coach, I think that muscle memory comes into play. And so there are some people out there, Kenton. And this is not, you know, obviously the odds don't favor this.

Starting point is 00:09:15 But people are picking 14 seed right state to upset number three, Virginia, because they remember what Virginia teams of the past have done. This is my question, Donald. Now, last time a Virginia team lost in the first round, first four, whatever the case may be, do you know what seed that team was? No. Ten seed. You go back before that and you say, well, they did get upset by Furman.

Starting point is 00:09:43 You know, you got to remember the Furman upset. Well, last time I checked, is Keyhead Clark walking through those doors? I don't believe he is. What about Tony Bennett? Tony Bennett got to be walking through those doors, right? is not walking through those doors. He's happily retired. He's happily retired. So it seems like a guy that was at the end of his rope anyway, a guy that was, we didn't know it, because Tony Bennett was young and looked healthy, it looked good, it looked good. It looked good when he retired. Some guys

Starting point is 00:10:10 don't retire until they're old and decrepit and they, you know, you can barely like, you look at him like, oh, that's a figurehead end coach. Tony Bennett didn't do that. He stepped out early, but he still showed the signs of that old man fatigue on his way out. With all due respect, he still showed the sign. This is what Virginia was in Tony Bennett's last years after the national championship, okay? We had no tournament because of COVID. First round loss as a four seed. No tournament in 2020, or they didn't make the tournament rather, in 2022.

Starting point is 00:10:45 2020, 23, you lose in the first round. 2024, your first four, and you lose that game. It's just an objective truth. this team seemed to sure, they got it done during a regular season, sure, but when it came time during the postseason, Tony Bennett just seemed to have lost his luster.

Starting point is 00:11:10 It seemed to no longer be there. That fire in his eye to win seemed like it was no longer there. He recognized that fire was no longer there and he stepped aside. He stepped aside. Oldham's got that fire. He's got that fire.

Starting point is 00:11:23 He sure does. He doesn't have it, Manate yet. He doesn't have him all the accolades, all the year, you're going in the basketball hall of the fact. He doesn't have that. So he's got a fire. And he's got some length. He's got some big boys.

Starting point is 00:11:36 He's got some massive dudes. I'm talking about a massive mound of man in the middle. They got multiple of them. Okay? I think they'll be just one. Yeah. What do you say about them? They have the factory of seven footers.

Starting point is 00:11:47 Yeah, they got the seven foot of five. They went in the seven foot store. They said, let me get one of those, one of those. And the store said, well, you know, we got to buy two, get one free special. So if you take those two. We'll give you a third on the way out, and that's what they did. That's what they got seven footers. Came off the bench and got eight blocks against these things.

Starting point is 00:12:02 What is that? How are you hiding him on the bench? That's the type of stuff for the A's doing. Oh, man. Well, there are a couple of other trendy upset picks out there involving ACC teams at the wrong end. Because remember, as we established yesterday, seven out of eight ACC teams in the tournament are favored to win their opening game, whether that be first four or first round profit. So you want to keep it locked right here. We're also going to talk football in this episode.

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Starting point is 00:14:51 The winner in each will get $100 in locked on merch. The rest of us can commiserate in the members-only. chats as our brackets blow up. Remember, I have the perfect bracket cooking, just see the first ever. And as a member of the club, you get an ad-free version of this show. Again, it's all free for a month with code March. Find your favorite shows at locked-onpodcast.com slash everydayer. Thank you for making Lockdown ACC your first listen. I'm Alex Dono from Lockdown-Kane's. We got Kenton Gibbs from Lockdown Wolfpack with us as always. All right, so, you know, this one, obviously this is one.

Starting point is 00:15:29 I'm going to have to stay up very late to watch Miami against Missouri at St. Louis Friday night at 10, 10 p.m. It's the last of the first round games. Now, it's like, I don't think it would surprise anyone if Mazoo wins the game. They're essentially playing at home, but they're only one and a half point underdog. So it's like, I didn't lead with that one because it's like it wouldn't be much of an upset if it happened. But, you know, sometimes Miami's worst enemy Kenton can be their own weaknesses. And like Jay Lucas does a really good job in certain games hiding those weaknesses.

Starting point is 00:16:04 You know, we're not consistent at the free throw line. We are one of the worst shooting teams in the country when it comes to the outside shot. And yet Miami is able to sometimes, most of the time, compensate for that by battling and winning the battles of the boards, by scoring in the paint. So it's like you kind of feel like Miami is able to sometimes, most of the time, could beat almost anybody, but also lose to almost anybody if you run into a really hot three-point shooting team specifically. So it's like it wouldn't be much of an upset, but yeah, I'm sure a lot of people are picking Mizzou to beat Miami in St. Louis. You know, I mean, you talk about the home aspect of it.

Starting point is 00:16:41 You talk about the shooting aspect of it. The reality is this. March is dictated by guard play. We've seen it a million times over. And with all due respect to Miami's guards, if they can't get to the rim, things get really dicey. So I could see a world where Missouri wins that game, but I'm going to tell you something,

Starting point is 00:17:00 Miami's got a miniature version of what UVA has going on because they might not have the same amount of tall guys, but all the Miami's guys can jump off the jump. They may not be the biggest front court, but when they get up in the air, it's like, oh, my God, is he ever coming down? So the reality is I could definitely see Miami pulling this one off. And the fact that they're one and a half point favorites,

Starting point is 00:17:23 despite Missouri being at home. It's a 17. It says a lot. It's a 17. Is that really an upset? You know, that's what I call them the 9c, be the 18th upset. I guess, technically. But in the spirit of an upset, does it feel like an upset?

Starting point is 00:17:39 I don't know. No. No. Well, how about this one, this one I think based on the seeding would certainly feel like an upset. Six seed North Carolina, the old dirty foot club, against 11 seed VCU. So, you know, UVA is going to be without Caleb Wilson. It's out for the season after thumb surgery.

Starting point is 00:18:00 UVA since the Wilson injury has gone five and four overall. VCU has won 16 of its last 17 games. I got to double check the odds for this one. Here it is. UNC is favored by two and a half. So I think the odds makers would reflect. They definitely think VCU has a good shot. Here's the thing.

Starting point is 00:18:21 UNC can be VCU, but this game has to be, and I mean this very genuinely, this has to be the Seth Trimble show. He has to show up in a meaningful way in this tournament. He cannot just be good enough. He can't be all right. Caleb Wilson was the start of show. He was the guy that was like, oh, everything flows through him, defensively, offensively, all of it flowed through him.

Starting point is 00:18:49 he's gone. Vassar, I don't think, has another gear to take his game too. He can prove me wrong. I don't think he does. So with that in mind, who's next in line to step up? It has to be.

Starting point is 00:19:03 Trimble. It has to be Trimble. He has to be a guy that this North Carolina team is winning because of, not winning with. You can't just win with Seth Trouble. Or else, BCU,

Starting point is 00:19:15 that's a team. Their 16 wins look a little bit more legitimate to me. Just a little bit more legitimate. them at the USF. That is a team that I would legitimately be worried about if I were UNC. This is a game that I'm looking at saying, I guarantee you, as sure as the sun rises on the east and sets on the west.

Starting point is 00:19:34 Look at Seth Trumbull and his stat line at the end of the game, and that'll tell you whether not it's a win or loss. You don't need a guy to look at the final score. Look at his stat line. And if he doesn't put up at least something like 24 and 4 or something in that ballpark, they're going to have a real tough time winning this ballgame. Well, this is the time of year when we all have to remind ourselves what channel true TV is, like what number? Because even though, you know, we watch it for a few weeks every year, I can never remember what number it is on the old direct TV.

Starting point is 00:20:07 Let me help me up. Let me help out my millennials. If you're younger than you're watching this, go to your HBO app. That HBO Max. Oh, you get it on. That's right. You know what? You don't got to worry about it.

Starting point is 00:20:18 It takes that problem away. You don't have to be, you don't have to find like channel 96 anymore to figure out where we're true TV. And on true TV tonight, Kenton, first for action. I know, and I imagine are you and Grayson going to do something right after? So you're going to be up late tonight, huh? Hey, listen, don't remind me, okay? Don't remind me.

Starting point is 00:20:38 I got work. I got all these things going on in life, you know. I'm going to be up and I'm a report on whatever I see in that game. hopefully we get the good version of NC State. We already lost to Texas once this year. Yeah. But I will say this. Texas, like LSU, was fictually taking our coach.

Starting point is 00:20:59 Will Wade, get pissed about it. Get pissed about it. Players, get pissed about it. They disrespect me. You all said, oh, you know, Will Wade's too good to be at that school. Oh, yeah. He's too good to be there. Oh, and the way did NC State finish this season,

Starting point is 00:21:14 everybody called y'all frauds. It went from the red reckoning to people calling y'all the red wreck at the end of the season. That's not good. And the worst part about it, Texas was even worse to close up their season. Yeah, they were. Yeah. And people are acting like, oh, you've got no shot. Show them something now.

Starting point is 00:21:34 You are favored by a point in a half. I just want you. I know that doesn't help out your bulletin board material. Vegas. I'm sorry. Vegas believes in you. Vegas believes in you. But the pundits don't.

Starting point is 00:21:44 Nobody else does. Nobody believes in your book, Vegas, okay? And I get it. You know, Dary Williams played at Nevada and all that. Listen, let's not pay attention to that right now. I need you all to lock in, be your best selves, and win this ball game, okay? Make the ACC look good. Come on, huh?

Starting point is 00:22:04 Count up next, the biggest question for every ACC football team in spring ball. Did they get this one right from Miami? You want to keep it locked right here. We're not done yet on this brand new episode of Lockdown ACC. Folks, the biggest stretch of the college basketball season is here this week. Buzzer beaters, bracket busters, those unforgettable moments that everyone's talking about the next day. Being there live for something like that, that's bucketless stuff. But the hard part is always actually getting tickets, long queues, prices jumping around, surprise fees at checkout.

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Starting point is 00:24:41 Thank you for making Locked on ACC your first listen. All right, so Kenton, CBS Sports recently put out their burning question for every ACC football team now with spring football underway. And most of these questions are about quarterbacks, which, you know, the nature of that being the most important position. And there's a lot of new starting quarterbacks in the ACC. They went in a little bit of a different direction for Miami. And I, they're close. I don't think this is really my burning question, though. So their burning question is, can the newcomers maintain production on the defensive line. And I get it asking that question when you lose a generational Rubin Bain into the NFL

Starting point is 00:25:25 draft at like a borderline generational Akeem Mesidor. I feel on the D line though, Kenton, I feel good about what Miami is returning and what they brought in. I think the defensive tackles are actually going to be better than they were last year with Amad Moten back and Justin Scott a year older and more experience. Bringing in Damon Wilson at defensive end, getting Hayden Lowe back healthy, and Marquis Lightfoot, who played a lot last year. For me, my burning question is actually on the flip side,

Starting point is 00:25:55 the offensive line. I agree. Yeah, because like, okay, Miami's losing two defensive end starters. That's significant. They lost four starters on the offensive line, KG. You're breaking in four new starters, and a true freshman in Jackson Cantwell, he's still got to go out there and earn the job,

Starting point is 00:26:12 but he's highly favored to be the right tackle starter this year. So I think they were right on the line of scrimmage, just the wrong side of it. I have thousand percent agree. I have thought just like I agree when you were talking about five-hour energy and how I'm going to need one of those tonight to stay up fancy stage game. I agree just as much for this point here. You talk about breaking in an offensive line. What's the last time Miami's offensive line had to break in more than half of their starters?

Starting point is 00:26:41 What's the last time? I mean, it had to have been like, it was obviously before, before Christabal or maybe the first year he took over. But even, I don't know, it was 20, 21, 22, something like that. That's my point. That's my point. You're looking at a, that's a massive deal. A defensive line doesn't need the same amount of coordination and understanding each other because a defensive line, you work together with each other during certain instances, right? Like you've got to understand how you're a guy like.

Starting point is 00:27:12 to pass rush in certain instances, but sometimes you just react and let things roll and you'll be okay. You can't do that for offense. Offense, your advantage is the coordination. My advantage is I understand that when I need to, that when I need to go ahead and run a, let's say a platform block with Cici, this is how he likes to block it. This is how I block it. We're going to get to the second level like this. And this is when he's going to disengage. This is when I'm going to disengage in that type of deal. You don't have that same type of like, hey, continuity is super important for defensive lines. You're absolutely right.

Starting point is 00:27:45 And to talk about breaking in a true freshman on this offensive line, hey, listen, I'm going to tell you something now. I'll play with some guys that were freaks in nature, okay? Absolute, you know, knock it out of the park. That guy's going to be in the league for a long time or is in the league now still type of guy. Okay. Of all the positions to transition over from high school to college, college, to the NFL, I'd probably say quarterback, it used to be number one.

Starting point is 00:28:18 But it's, it's starting to, the gap is starting to close. Yeah. Because offensive line, you're seeing a different breed of two on that defensive line than what we've seen in the past. All these defensive linemen running for somethings now. It's crazy. It's unlike anything we've ever seen. And then you put them under the bench and they're still banging out 20 plus.

Starting point is 00:28:37 This is looking, this is looking to be an area where. If Miami has success, we will pin it here. And if they do not have success, we will still pin it here. Mario Cristobal coached up offensive line with the best up. He's a former offensive line of itself. His offensive line coach, one of the best in the business. But you cannot tell me that you're not a little leery of like, man, it's a brand new group, basically brand new group out there that we have not seen play a Snapple football.

Starting point is 00:29:07 Yeah, so there you have it for the team that I cover. We agree they were close but not quite there. What about for your NC State Wolfpack? Their burning question is, can Dave Doran get the defense back on track? Is that the burning question? Hey, listen, Tony Gibson, you struggling up there at Marshall. It's tough up there in West Virginia.

Starting point is 00:29:30 It ain't nothing to do. I've been to West Virginia before. I've driven through there. I think everybody's driven. Nobody's stopped, but everyone's driven through. Actually, I did stop. I did stop, which I deeply. I deeply regretted immediately after stopping, and it was during the daytime,

Starting point is 00:29:45 with all due respect to the great state of Westme. You love, but Tony, come on back. NC State wants you, Marshall ain't got no N I.A. Come on back, though. Come on back. Can it, is that the burning question? No, Donno, because I've got a defender of answer. What is?

Starting point is 00:30:01 No. No, it's a defender of answer. It's too easy of an answer to be a burning question. It's too easy of an answer. It's like, did I pay the light bill this month? It's like that type of question. You looked at your bank account and said, wait a minute, Duke Energy did. Wait a minute, DTE took that, da, da, da, da, da.

Starting point is 00:30:17 Yeah, I've got auto pay, so I don't even have to remember. There you go. So do I. So do I. So I don't even think about it. I look at this defense and my biggest concern is obviously the edge rush position. Harvard from Tulane, he's a ball player. He's a dude.

Starting point is 00:30:32 You need more than one. Donno, you know better than anybody. When Miami got a second edge rush with a compliment bane, it took all. It was a whole other level because edge rushers, great edge rushers are not a force. They're force multipliers. When you get one, you got a good thing growing. When you get two, oh my God, you're scaring people now. You can't double team everybody.

Starting point is 00:30:56 Exactly. Hide the women and children. Then brothers are on a mission. So ultimately, I think that NC State needs the guys who can get home. And I'll say that as a former defensive line myself and knowing how important that is. It's going to be vitally important. If they can't do that, everything else falls apart. Everything else is off the table defensive.

Starting point is 00:31:13 Well, I want to get it to in an upcoming episode, more of these burning questions for each ACC team. And again, a lot of them are quarterback-related, which I think comes with the territory when 11 out of the 17 starting quarterbacks in the ACC are expected to be transfers. So we have a lot more to get to this week. And, of course, a lot more NCAA tournament to get to this week. Good luck to the PAC,

Starting point is 00:31:37 night against Texas. Thanks to Kenton Gibbs. You want to check him out at TGIF underscore Kenton. Check him out on Lockedon Wolfpack. You can watch me on Lockedon Cains. Follow me at Alex Dono. And we'll talk to you again next time on another episode of Lockdown ACC. We're part of the number one Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day.

Locked On ACC - Daily College Football & Basketball Podcast - SHOCKER: Are Louisville & Virginia On UPSET ALERT? | Miami's Burning Question

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