Locked On ACC - Daily College Football & Basketball Podcast - SHOCKER: Virginia and SMU ONE Win Away from ACC Glory but Can They Survive the Final Test?

Starting point is 00:00:00 Virginia just needs to beat an inferior opponent and they're in the conference championship game. SMU, same thing. Beat an inferior opponent. You're in the conference championship game. So simple, right? This is the ACC. You are locked on ACC, your daily podcast on the Atlantic Coast Conference. Part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day.

Starting point is 00:00:30 Not only is it rivalry week in college football, but there are six. teams in the ACC horse still alive to possibly get to the conference championship game. This is going to be an awesome weekend. Thank you so much to the everydayers for making Locked on ACC your first listen. We're available wherever you get your podcast. We're on YouTube. We're part of now the number one sports podcasting network, the Lockdown Network, your team every day. He is Kenton Gibbs, former NC State defensive linemen and co-host of Lockdown Wolfpack. I am Alex Dono, host of Lockdown Cainz, and today's episode is proudly brought to you by Fanduel. Right now, new customers can bet just $5.

Starting point is 00:01:10 And if your bet wins, you'll get $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. Download FanDuel today. On this loaded episode, we'll take a look at all the week 14 ACC football matchups. We'll talk about ACC championship game scenarios. It is incredibly complicated. But here, Kenton, the part that is not complicated are, There are two teams that control their own destiny heading into this weekend. The Virginia Cavaliers, if they win, they're in.

Starting point is 00:01:41 The SMU Mustangs, if they win this weekend, they are in. If those two teams win, they will face each other the following weekend in Charlotte. Now, let's talk about these games, Kenton, because for UVA at 9 and 2 on the season, they are taking on lowly 3 and 8 Virginia Tech and UVA is favored by 9.5. point, but I will remind people, this is one of those topsy-turvy college football rivalries, where despite UVA being the much better team right now, Virginia Tech has won 19 of the past 20 matchups? Yes. And, and, you know, you talk about this game and Cal and SMU being games. We're like, oh, all you got to do is be the lowly team. It goes a step beyond that, Donald.

Starting point is 00:02:27 These two teams not only have to be, quote, unquote, lesser or lowly teams, you have to beat two teams. You have to be two teams that do not have a head coach on that side line. Neither team. Virginia Tech, they've hired James Franklin. Is James Franklin coaching this game? Nope. No. Cal, just fire Wilcox.

Starting point is 00:02:43 So you talk about this game in particular, the Commonwealth game here where you're looking at, you know, Virginia Tech and Virginia. This is a game where if anything is right with the ACC, Virginia will do what needs to be done. they will finish out what needs to happen and go forward from there. But there is a world. There is most certainly a world where Virginia Tech finds a way, despite being not bowl eligible,

Starting point is 00:03:14 despite not having anything really going for themselves. In terms of this season, there's a world where they find a way to say, you know what, if we can't get invited to the party, we'll throw something in that punchbow to make sure nobody wants to drink out of it. And that's what they want to be. They want to be the foil to Virginia's amazing, outstanding, out of nowhere season, which is very possible because they have the talent to do so.

Starting point is 00:03:40 Yeah, and also Virginia Tech, obviously, like, I wouldn't say that their players ever quit on the season. I guess it was kind of looking that way before they fired Brent Pry. But, you know, you mentioned they've hired James Franklin, you know, for next season. And they, if anything, these players, I think we saw a little bit of against Miami. There was a lot of effort for Virginia Tech and that loss of the hurricanes. These guys are auditioning either for James Franklin or the ones that probably know they're not going to still be in Blacksburg are auditioning for their next job somewhere else. So the effort is going to be there from the Hokies. You know, the Hokies have, they've got a talented defensive line.

Starting point is 00:04:19 So that could, you know, disrupt, you know, Virginia, Virginia's high flying offense. you know, Virginia Tech also, they've got a quarterback who's extremely erratic. I mean, not only from game to game, from play to play, you don't know what you're getting from Kyron Drones, but Drones is capable, Kenton, of making like NFL caliber plays on one down. And then on the next down, he looks like, you know, like an FCS quarterback. It kind of very, but he's got the talent. So if Virginia Tech has themselves one of those games, they could absolutely come away victorious and what are they called this the Commonwealth Cup.

Starting point is 00:04:56 Yeah, yeah. He's, it. Cairn drones is going to make plays where you're like, oh, he should be up for the Heisman. Yeah. He can also make plays where you like, are you high, man. Both are available. Both are in stock for him.

Starting point is 00:05:09 But in all seriousness, he's a fantastic player and they're running game this year. When they have been rolling at their highest clip, it's been dangerous. That offensive line has shown the ability to move folks around from time to time. So I'm not saying that Virginia doesn't stand a chance. I'm not saying that at all. Virginia is favored and rightfully so. This is very much so a team. Everything is on the line.

Starting point is 00:05:34 This will objectively be one of the best at minimum five to, I probably say top five seasons in Virginia football history. History. You beat Florida State. That was a top 10 win when they came in. Because, you know, by the CFP, if you are, well, never mind, we're in the Royal Conference. That win doesn't count anymore.

Starting point is 00:05:54 But, you know, you've got a top 10 win on the season in Charlottesville. You are going to go to an ACC championship if you can beat Virginia Tech. This is setting up to be one of the best seasons in program history. History with a real Legion of Whom type of squad here. The guys who thought that they could do something special and go to the league last year, all of them are gone. They all left to go to other programs and do special things there. And so this is a moment where all you have to do is take care of business, Virginia.

Starting point is 00:06:30 Just take care of business. Just one more time. Can you give me one more, Virginia? We don't need you to play 20 great games of football. We need one. We need one. Or else we're going to get into the top C-turvy land. Whereas, well, if this team wins and this team losing, if this team wins with this team

Starting point is 00:06:48 losing and grandma sally crosses the street while this team wins and if donno is hopping on one leg while this team loses miami's in all of a sudden it's just a very very strange world but i am hoping so that we don't have to do any more math than we need that two of the top teams in the conference can beat two teams that are not bowl eligible at the moment i don't believe cal is bowl eligible i could be wrong there uh i think they're six and five okay all right yeah yeah they're six and five Okay, so beat two teams that do not have head coaches that do not have aspirations for conference championship because it doesn't matter. If Virginia Tech wins, is there a scenario where Virginia Tech gets in?

Starting point is 00:07:30 No. If Kyle wins, is there a scenario where Cal goes to Charlotte? Nope. Unless we're talking about for the belt bowl, no. Kyle is not in it. Now, you don't be, yeah, as a Miami guy, I'm hoping for the chaos. Like, I know you're not rooting to have to do the extra math. I'm rooting for Virginia to lose and for SMU to lose.

Starting point is 00:07:51 And on that note, obviously the timing for SMU to go into Cal and they're not playing super late. It's 8 o'clock Eastern time. So it's not like the super late kickoff or anything. So the time shouldn't be a factor in this one. SMU has been playing their best ball since their victory over Miami. They looked pretty shaky before that. They have, you know, one conference loss to Wake Forest.

Starting point is 00:08:13 That's their only conference loss. They had two non-con losses. but SMU's been rolling. You know, they blew out a battered Louisville team last week. Louisville didn't have Miller Moss or Isaac Brown, but it was still a good win for SMU. And SMU is favored against Cal by 13 and a half points. So they're two touchdown favorites on the road.

Starting point is 00:08:36 But things could get wacky, right? And you could probably speak on this, Kenton. You know, Cal, they just fired their head coach, Justin Wilcox, a couple days ago. And that, it does something to the psyche of that team, right? I mean, if anything, they may have an extra chip on their shoulder that could lend to that chaos. And they've got a super talented young quarterback who's capable of playing out of his mind in JKS. The same way that you said, hey, there are going to be guys putting on an audition for their next coach at Virginia Tech.

Starting point is 00:09:06 Do you not think the same thing is happening at Cal? Do you not think there are multiple guys that are like, hey, I would love to be here. but I need to, you know, prepare myself just in case the coach runs a system that's contrary to new coach, runs a system that's contrary to my skill set. I need to put good tape out there just in case something is, you know, a foot where this coach is bringing in his guys and his staff and all of his stuff. And I'm not a member of his group. Am I ready to go elsewhere and make the best out of this thing for myself?

Starting point is 00:09:38 College football, now more, never its job. And so these young men are obviously going to be looking at what puts me and my family in the best position. I will simply say getting a coach fired at this point in time of the season can serve as a boost. It can serve to put your team in the state of disarray. What I will warn both Virginia and SMU about, if you put those teams down early, you will not have to worry about it. If you let them hang around, you let them meander in the practice. proximity and oh, there's hope. They go from a team who's downtrodden, who's coachless, who's, you know, for Virginia,

Starting point is 00:10:19 for Virginia Tech rather not playing in a bowl game, this is going to be a lot of those guys last time playing football ever in life. This would be a lot of those guys last time ever lacing them up, ever. You can you can let them be in the area of meander or you can put them down early, give them time to snail the roses, go look. in the crowd and see all the people there and all that, you know, look at the scenic stuff. Don't worry about what's happening in the fifth. We'll take care of that.

Starting point is 00:10:47 You just soak in your last time playing ball, you know. So, again, if I was Cal, I'm sorry, yes, if I'm Cal and Virginia Tech, I'm saying, keep it close. Keep it in striking distance. If I'm their coaches, I'm saying, if we keep it a striking distance, that other team starts getting tight because they got stuff to play for. And my boys at Virginia Tech, we know this is going to be our last time together, gentlemen. It's been an honor playing with you. That's it.

Starting point is 00:11:11 You know, if we talk about Cal, hey, you got one more bowl game left. You got one more game left. Go play in a good bowl. You don't want to end up at the Fenway Bowl. Who wants to be in the Finway Bowl? They're giving out Franks at the bowl for bowl gifts. You want that? You want the ballpark Frank as a bowl gift?

Starting point is 00:11:27 I don't want that as a bold gift. I'm joking to the respective people who put together the Fenway Bowl. I'm sure it's a great time. But go get yourself a nicer bowl game. You know what I mean? Just keep it close. Keep it close. They'll get tight.

Starting point is 00:11:40 You all have your opportunity to mix a play. All right, so we covered the simple scenario. The simple scenario would be Virginia wins, SMU wins. They face each other. They control their own destinies. What about if one or both of them lose? Because there are four other teams that are still in the mix. They need help.

Starting point is 00:11:56 You want to keep it locked right here. We're only getting started on this brand new episode of Locked on ACC. And folks, if you want the action on those games, if you think SMU is going to win and cover and Virginia or if you think they're going to get upset, Fanduel is the spot. And by the way, the NBA is back and there's no better place to get in on that action than Fanduel, the official sports betting partner of the NBA. Even if you miss the start of the game or you want to ride the hot hand,

Starting point is 00:12:23 Fanduel has live bets on everything from who will score next to fourth quarter comebacks. Plus, you can even combine your live bets into a same game parlay for a shot at a bigger payout. It keeps every game exciting, especially when your team's making that late push. Right now, Fandual is giving new customers. $300 in bonus bets when your first $5 bet wins. So head to fenduel.com to sign up and play your game with Fandul, the official sports betting partner of the NBA. Thank you for making Lockdown ACC your first listen.

Starting point is 00:12:54 And thank you to the Everydayers for making the Lockdown Network, the number one sports podcast network. Like it's, you know, all the hosts here, we work really, really hard. But it's about you guys. It's about the everydayers who click on our shows and comment on our posts and interact with us. us. We can't thank you guys enough because you make this network possible.

Starting point is 00:13:13 And I know Kent and all the everydayers want to know what needs to happen for the other teams that are in the mix, right? Pit. Pit has a shot. As of course, Pat Narduzzi was fully aware of that before he faced Notre Dame that Pitt has a shot of getting into the ACC championship game. Georgia Tech, Miami, Duke all have a shot if other things happen. They need help to still get in. So Kenton, would you like to go over these scenarios and get your tinfoil hat out, get your calculator out? Do you want to go over how Pitt, Georgia Tech, Miami, or Duke can get in? You know, Don, I'm from the old school. I got my avocus ready. My abacus is right here sitting waiting to calculate and tab up all of these, all of these scenarios. Fire away. Yeah, so this comes

Starting point is 00:14:04 courtesy of PFF College for making this so simple. So, all right, for Pitt. to get into the ACC championship game. They need their two scenarios. They need to beat Miami and Virginia needs to lose. Or they need to beat Miami and SMU loses. So that's somewhat straightforward. Georgia Tech, who controlled their own destiny last week. That didn't go so well for them against Pitt.

Starting point is 00:14:31 Georgia Tech, who they have no conference games left, but they still have a shot. Georgia Tech faces Georgia this weekend, but they can still get to the ACC championship. game if Virginia and SMU both lose. So they're rooting for that chaos scenario. We get really complicated when we get to the team that I cover, and that's Miami. It's nothing simple with Miami ever. So Miami obviously needs to beat Pitt this weekend for any of this to work.

Starting point is 00:14:58 But if Miami beats Pitt plus SMU loses, or sorry, plus SMU wins, excuse me, Duke loses and Virginia loses Miami's in. or Virginia wins, Duke loses, SMU loses, NC State wins, please help me, Kenton, and Syracuse win. They play against Boston College, then Miami's in. Third scenario, Duke wins, Virginia loses, SMU loses, and NC State wins. So I'm counting on you, Kenton. And then the final scenario, SMU loses, Duke loses, Virginia loses, Syracuse and NC State both win. that's for Miami. And then you get to Duke.

Starting point is 00:15:39 And it would be, you know, Mani Diaz can still find his way in despite a five lost regular season. They can still get to the ACC championship game. If Duke has to win against Wake Forest, Pitt needs to lose and SMU needs to lose, or they need to win. Plus, Pitt loses, Virginia loses, and NC State loses. So, I mean, I guess, I mean, if it's not SMU or Virginia, who do you think is? getting to this ACC championship game getting. I mean, if it's not SMU or Virginia, I don't think that Pitt can beat Miami. I really don't think that they can do it.

Starting point is 00:16:19 So I'd have to venture, if it's not one of those two, it's going to be Georgia Tech. I think that we'll see if both of those teams go down, I think we'll definitely see Georgia Tech, you know, pop on, pop their little heads on in there. and make something happen there. Because if we look at a situation where, all right, who gets in, how do they get in? At the end of the day, if Georgia Tech is completely out of this,

Starting point is 00:16:48 they could do the Narduzi method and lose by 100, and it don't matter, right? What we're looking at then is, okay, well, who next? Who is next in in terms of, you know, we got Virginia losing or and or SMU losing. if both of those teams lose, then Georgia Tech is the fact that we win. So they're going to be the next team in. And I'd be shocked if both teams lost, but I mean, hey, it's possible.

Starting point is 00:17:16 There's a world where it happens. Yeah. I think at least one of Virginia or SMU is going to get in. I probably lean to SMU being more likely to beat Cal than Virginia beating Virginia Tech, as weird as that sounds. and what a story that would be for Rhett Lashley and company, especially with the way they started this season. Like, everybody had written them off after they lost to Wake Forest.

Starting point is 00:17:42 They're season's over. But they bounce back. They've hung around all year. Like, can you imagine? And who would you, go ahead, go ahead. I was just going to say, and the consistency for SMU at that point. That would be four straight conference championship appearances. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:18:02 Four straight. Wow. That level of consistency and winning cannot be undermined, even if you want to say, well, two, we're in a lower level. Okay, well, look around in the other power four conferences. Who in the Big 12 is going back to back in conference championships these days? Who in the SEC is going back to back in conference championship appearances these days? Look at the Big Ten.

Starting point is 00:18:25 Who's going back to back? Which, by the way, last year's national champion did not go to the Big Ten championship. and they de facto will be there this year. They're already there. Even if they lose to Michigan, they're going to be there. I'm sorry, not Illinois. Indiana is probably going to be the second team in. So they're not getting teams who are repeaters there.

Starting point is 00:18:46 So this is a reality of Rent Lashley deserves his credit and love because if SMU does get in, that is a level of consistency despite a bump up in competition that is unheard of. And if it's SMU versus Virginia in the, the ACC championship game. SMU's favored in that game, right? I would guess probably around five and a half to seven points. I think SMU would be favored by around a touchdown against UVA.

Starting point is 00:19:16 I agree. I agree that. They probably be favorites. Yeah, I would think that if SMU were to get in against, say, Georgia Tech, I think Georgia Tech would probably be favored, but I don't know. We're going to talk about them in a little bit because the last month, I don't think Georgia Tech has made a tackle. Like in like five weeks, like their defense has just completely gone MIA.

Starting point is 00:19:40 It's like, you know, Haynes King, he does a lot, but he doesn't play both ways. They might need him to suit up and play some linebacker as well with the way that that thing has been going. And let's talk about the week 14 matchups because you obviously have some rivalry games and other games that are maybe decisive for the ACC championship. You want to keep it locked right here. Kenton Gibbs from Lockdown Wolfpack, Alex Dono from Lockdown-Kaines. We continue on Lockdowne. Thank you so much for making locked on ACC your first listen. All right.

Starting point is 00:20:09 So one game, Kenton, that definitely has ACC championship game implications because both teams are still in it. Number 13, Miami is on the road at Pitt. Now, the more, and I know covering Miami and being a Miami guy, my entire life, I know how Jekyll and Hyde Miami can be. So there is always the concern, self-inflicted wounds. Also, it's going to be 34, 35 degrees. Miami's not used to playing in that weather.

Starting point is 00:20:36 So these are X factors that could potentially work in Pitt's favor. McKenton, when I study the actual matchups in the game, Miami has the edge almost everywhere. Like I understand why the hurricanes are favored by six and a half points at Pitt. You know, Pitt does have, even though he's played pretty well, a true freshman starting quarterback in Mason Heinzschel, who's going to be going up against arguably the best pass rush that he's faced all season, even including, you know, Notre Dame, who they faced a few weeks ago. so Miami's going to try to keep him on his back foot. Pitt, they've been somewhat one-dimensional with the passing game.

Starting point is 00:21:11 I know that they ran really, really well last week, but everyone lately has run well against Georgia Tech. I'm not sure what the status of Des Reed is, Kenton, for this week. I think he's going to give it a go, but it seems like Reed, over the last few weeks, every time he does step on the field, he's had trouble. I think it's an ankle that he's had an issue with. He didn't play last week.

Starting point is 00:21:31 you know i pit is really good against the run but miami's passing game has found life in recent weeks so like this is a game again all signs point to miami should win uh unless miami does some of that self-inflicted stuff that they've done from time to time absolutely and this is a situation where both teams have a lot to play for both teams are still in play for not only in a c championship but also the playoff if miami wins this ball game and wins it convincingly, you're going to have a hard time trying to sell, oh, this Miami team doesn't belong in the playoff conversation. They're going to have a hard time trying to sell that because at that point in time,

Starting point is 00:22:12 you're going to be looking at a 10-win team with multiple wins over top 25 teams, regardless of if the committee wants to use the metric of, well, were they ranked at the time that you played them? Or are they ranked right now? By both metrics, there will be multiple teams that are ranked. that Miami very likely has wins over. And you're going to be saying this is a team that in their past few appearances has not been good, has not won, has dominated, has done the game control, has done the, oh, even if we break down who had the most negative and positive plays. And, you know, we take away the impact of it.

Starting point is 00:22:54 We just measure whether or not it was negative or positive. Miami wins that metric as well. So at this point, Miami has a ton to play for in terms of that at-large bid and making the committee say, fine, we don't want to let you in, but I guess. And Pitt, on the other hand, obviously you've got the all these scenarios and you need some help. You need some help. But you know what helps you when you need help? Helping yourself.

Starting point is 00:23:21 Helping yourself is the first thing you can do. That's the only part of that equation you're in control of. All the rest of it, you're hoping, praying, wishing. doing your little rain dance that somebody else loses that you need, but the part you can control, this is the game. So I think this would be a fantastic game. But I do think that Miami has the upper hand in a lot of places. I'm just going to say, in the Battle of the Minds,

Starting point is 00:23:43 I like Kay Bell a lot. I love me some Kay Bell as a play caller because he is prime time. And I would be surprised if he's not leading his own program two to three years from now. That's a great call. Yeah, so that's a 12 noon on Saturday. Miami favored by six and a half. I know that this is not a conference game, but 16th ranked Georgia Tech is taken on number four UGA.

Starting point is 00:24:06 If you'd ask me about this one a month ago, I would say, you know, Georgia Tech, again, has good shot to keep it close, maybe pull off the upset. You know, they went to eight overtimes last year. That's not nothing. I just, I, Georgia Tech's defense has been so ghastly, Kenton for the past. I mean, not that they were ever great, but they were serviceable until they've completely gone down the tank.

Starting point is 00:24:30 So I fully understand why UGA is favored by 14 and a half in this rivalry game. I struggle to think Georgia Tech can keep it close based on their recent form. You're not wrong, but two things play in Georgia Tech's favor here. Number one, this is a rivalry game. Though the record books out, throw what you've been seeing lately out. This is a, and this robbery is clean, old-fashioned hate. That is the name of this robbery, folks. Clean, old-fashioned.

Starting point is 00:25:00 Hey, that's my type of carrying on right there. But the other part of this is a lot of people aren't saying this because everybody's giving Georgia Tech no shot. But we know how crazy rivalry games get. This, I believe, in my heart of hearts, you cannot tell me that Georgia Tech does not get an at-large bid if you win this game. You can't tell me they.

Starting point is 00:25:21 Oh, yes, you're a thousand percent right. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Yeah. You go in as the 16th ranked team in America. You beat number four. How do they keep that team substantially ahead of you? How? True.

Starting point is 00:25:38 How do they say, hey, that team belongs in over you? When, you know, the Miami and Notre Dame thinking, well, it was head to head early. And if they played now, it'd be a different team. Now everybody gets paid with mine. Whatever. But you know what this game? You couldn't say?

Starting point is 00:25:54 Well, George is a different team. They're a different team from Saturday at 4 p.m. They're a different team already? Hold on. What's going on? So I think that this game really does have a lot more on the line for Georgia Tech that people realize. Because even if you don't get into the ACC championship, if you win this game, you're getting, in essence, a bye week.

Starting point is 00:26:17 You're going to be in. And you don't got to play in the conference championship. Hey, keep your conference championship. We're going for a natty, baby. You know, so this game is a very big one for Georgia Tech, despite the fact that they are double-digit dogs that most people would agree with. No, it's funny because you're so right. And I didn't even really entertain that scenario just because it's hard for me to envision Georgia Tech winning. But if they do, then suddenly you have their resume as a two-loss team.

Starting point is 00:26:44 And they would have out of the two lost teams, all the two lost teams, they have the best win if they beat Georgia. So, you know, again, like their losses would look worse than some of the other two lost teams. So it kind of depends on which argument you want to go with. Is it about the wins or about the losses? But they would have the best win of any two lost team in the country. So they would be right in the thick of that. Give me, I got to get your take because I certainly cannot let this episode expire without talking about NC State against UNC. I need Dave Doran and the boys to just give Belichick the business.

Starting point is 00:27:21 this Saturday, Kenton. You know, everybody in the game was eligibility. In the States are secure the ball. North Carolina is already to play the ball game. Tear is, I think this is the Texas last game ever as head coach in UNC, which a lot of people have not paying attention to the prize. If he comes back here, the UNC recruiting has slowed down from what it was earlier. going, I'm

Starting point is 00:27:58 this. This is a game here. It may matter outside. This may not be a national robbery like the game. This may not be a robbery with a lot of that clean old this year.

Starting point is 00:28:13 It's not be that. In other cases like Texas and them in Texas. But this year, as in this year, as bragging rights as anybody, since these two schools are basically on top of each other.

Starting point is 00:28:26 by a 30-minute drive. So I want to tell you this one here is you see look like they were and then again, NC State has been up and down in all season. You don't know what you're going to close up and pulls off an upset against Georgia. The tag or lays an absolute egg down coral gables. One of the day, I was back from that. It's their rival in Florida.

Starting point is 00:28:55 So you don't know which. You don't know which UNC team you're going to get, but I do know you're going to get two versions of fans that absolutely despise you. Amen to that. Well, I want to thank everyone for making Locked on ACC, your first listen and your first watch. Make sure to hit that thumbs up. Subscribe on Apple Podcast, Spotify, on YouTube,

Starting point is 00:29:18 wherever you get your podcasts. We'll be back later this week before the chaos begins to unfold from Friday night into Saturday. You want to keep it right here. We'll talk to you again next time on another episode of Lockdown ACCC right here on the number one Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day.

Locked On ACC - Daily College Football & Basketball Podcast - SHOCKER: Virginia and SMU ONE Win Away from ACC Glory but Can They Survive the Final Test?

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