Locked On ACC - Daily College Football & Basketball Podcast - SHOWDOWN: Game Picks and Matchups Miami at Florida State, Syracuse vs SMU, Clemson UNC!

Episode Date: October 3, 2025

MIAMI HURRICANES face crucial test against FLORIDA STATE. Can the Canes' offensive line exploit FSU's struggling pass rush?Alex Donno and Kenton Gibbs break down the high-stakes ACC matchups, including MIAMI vs. FSU, SYRACUSE vs. SMU, and CLEMSON vs. UNC. The hosts analyze key player matchups, dissect defensive strategies, and offer bold predictions for each game. Gibbs, a former NC STATE defensive lineman, provides insider perspectives on the importance of blitzing in FSU's 3-3-5 defense and questions LOUISVILLE's offensive capabilities against VIRGINIA.Tune in for expert analysis on how MARIO CRISTOBAL's Hurricanes can secure a victory against their in-state rivals and discover which underdog team might pull off a shocking upset this weekend.Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors!5-Hour ENERGYEnough with boring, flavorless caffeine, it’s time to give your caffeine a flavor upgrade with 5-hour ENERGY®️ shots. Get the favorites you love or be bold and try something new in-store and online at https://www.5hourENERGY.com or Amazon today.  SquareTo learn more, go support your favorite neighborhood spot and see what Square has been up to in your neck of the woods. And then if you have extra time, check out https://square.com/go/lockedoncollegePelotonLet yourself run, lift, flex, and push forward. Explore the new Peloton Cross Training Tread+ today at https://www.onepeloton.com. QuoSee why over 90,000 businesses trust Quo, formerly OpenPhone. Get started free and get 20% off your first 6 months at https://www.Quo.com/LOCKEDONCOLLEGE. DoorDashWith DoorDash Streaks, you save every Saturday you order — stack it up all season and you could save up to $250. Order this Saturday. Keep the streak alive. Fuel your gameday — only with DoorDash. Terms apply. Promo period through 11/18.MazdaIt’s the small details that make the big plays. And just like there’s more to every player, there’s more to a Mazda vehicle. Mazda. Move and Be Moved. GametimeToday's episode is brought to you by Gametime. Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONCOLLEGE for $20 off your first purchase. Terms and conditions apply.Monarch MoneyTake control of your finances with Monarch Money. Use code LOCKEDONCOLLEGE at https://www.monarchmoney.com/lockedoncollege for 50% off your first year.FanDuelToday's episode is brought to you by FanDuel. Football season is around the corner, visit the FanDuel App today and start planning your futures bets now.FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

This Saturday would be a really good time for the Florida State pass rush to finally show up. You are Locked on ACC, your daily podcast on the Atlantic Coast Conference. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. Happy Friday. Shout out to the Everydayers, and thank you so much for making Lockdown ACC your first listen. We're available free wherever you get your podcast. We're free on YouTube. We're part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. He is Kenton Gibbs, former NC State defensive lineman and co-host of Locked on Wolfpack.

I am Alex Dono, host of Lockdown Cains, and today's episode is brought to you by Mazda. Like our players, we sweat every detail because when you make every move count, pulling off the unexpected is only the beginning. Stay tuned later for highlights in this week's moving the game forward, Mazda, move and be moved. We're going to talk about the four biggest games on the ACC slate for this weekend. Virginia has the opportunity to pull off another. it'll be an upset despite the fact that they are the ranked team against an unranked opponent. They'll try to pull off an upset at Louisville. We'll see who's worse or who's not as bad between Clemson and UNC this weekend.

Syracuse at SMU, very interesting because if Steve Angelly was quarterbacking, I'd probably be picking Syracuse without him. Not so sure. But Kenton, let's start with Miami at Florida State. And the reason why I mentioned Florida State's pass rush is, For most of the week, we've really been focusing on Miami defensively against Tommy Castellanos against Gus Malzahn's offense. But there's something for Florida State that I think is worth noting here to start this season is the Florida State Seminoles, according to pro football focus, are the 95th graded pass rush in the country. It's not good.

and Florida State currently has zero defensive linemen with a pass rushing grade over 70, which is like barely a passing grade. If they're 335 defense, they usually only generate pressure when they're blitzing. They don't generate pressure with their front line. That's probably going to have to change this weekend against Miami's offensive line.

Well, not necessarily. And let me tell you why. The 335 is not just like blitzing, is a kind of a you do it here and there. No, blitzing is the norm. Sending somebody is the norm. So they may not need to generate more pressure in and of themselves without help. Because nine times about 10, you know, as an NC state guy,

I covered Tony Gibson and his iteration of the 335 for years at NC State. And one thing I can tell you, it's not the norm to have guys that are superstars that can get it done on that edge. but it does take your defense to a whole other level if you can do that at the 3-3-5. So it's kind of that question of can the dogs get home by hook or by crook, by scheme or by matchup man to man I'm better than you. However you want to do it, they just have to get home. Because if you let Carson Vec sit back there, pat the ball, look around, make a sandwich, oh look, C-C's over there still blocking.

Great job. Oh, look, big hookers over there doing his thing too. let me go ahead and throw the ball down the field now you're going to be in trouble you're going to be in trouble because this florida state receiving I'm sorry, this Miami receiving court has been one of the beautiful surprises of the ACC. Nobody coming into the season, including Donald, could have predicted that they would have played as well as they have. And yet they have shown up and shown out to a ridiculous degree. So I think the biggest task from Florida State is not just defensive linemen show up better.

It's anybody, if your number is called on a dog pattern, get your tail to that 11. You got to get home. No, you're right because no matter who it is, they still have the 95th past restrate in the country out of about 133 teams, which is not very good. So, you know, no matter who it is, they haven't been getting to opposing quarterbacks. But yeah, I mean, in this game, Kenton, I really think, you know, for the Florida state side, they are going to basically try to out scheme to, you know, compensate for Miami's trench play.

because the way that I see it is, you know, I look at football as 11 individual matchups at a time. And you would expect man for man, not to say every single Miami player is better than every single Florida State player. Not what I'm saying, but you would expect Miami to win the better part of the one-on-one matchups, especially in the trenches. Where I think Florida State has the opportunity to win this game is when it comes to their creative offensive play calling, if Miami is not ready for what Tommy Castellanos and Gus Malzahn have to offer. if Florida State wins the turnover battle. I know it's cliche to say it,

but I think if turnovers are equal, if it's zero, zero or one, one, or whatever, I think Miami can win this game without winning the turnover margin. I don't think Florida State can. I think Florida State has to win that to win this game. I thousand percent agree with you there. And I think another place where you talk about scheming and why that's important for Florida State,

I think Florida State has the better head coach in terms of his best against, Mario's best in terms of who I think in head coaching situations, who's better, I would say Norville. The problem is Norville's worst, to Mario's worst, they're about neck and neck. And he's facing a talent deficit. That's just the reality. Miami is the talented team in this football game.

So you need to do things to overcome that. That scheming that you talk about, all of that motion and misdirection that they have going on, it needs to work. It needs to work because if you put Mesdor and Bain in situations, where they can just go Tio, go hunt. If you put C.C. Maunoa in situations where he knows, oh, this guy right in front of me is the only guy I got to worry about blocking. Great. That guy is eliminated.

He's done. They don't have anybody that I would say consistently can stand up to CC and say, oh, yeah, you thought you were that guy. I'm actually that guy. I don't think they have that on their roster, but I think that the goal for Florida State should be, we're going to out scheme this team. We're going to out-prepure this team. And again, if you end up in a tight game, that favors Florida State. That is just the honest to God truth here. Because if you look at who Miami has been all year, other than Notre Dame,

have they been in any tight game situations for the most part this year? Not really. I mean, things were kind of tight in the third quarter against Florida. But, yeah, I mean, Notre Dame was that they were tied 2424 late in the fourth. So that was the one. So with Miami, with Florida State, you could say, a similar thing in terms of they haven't played a ton of tight games either outside of one they lost, but you learn a ton of lessons in that loss and it's so fresh and it's so recent,

it kind of gives you a different feel. If Norville said this is going to be an emotional game, you know what plays into that emotion when it's tight late. That plays into that. And the more emotional team can get a boost that the more business-like team does not have. However, if the more business-like team can withstand the first punch, if they can withstand that first emotional flurry that Florida State is going to come with, Miami will be fine.

But like you said, that turnover battle means a lot. That turnover battle and keeping it close. I would say those are the two keys for Florida State. Because I don't think Florida State has a type of team that can blow them out. But I think if you keep it close, you win the turnover margin, you can find yourself on top of this one. I mean, the game that I envision, you know, does involve Miami making enough defensive stops and forcing enough third downs that Florida State is not going to go off offensively.

I think in a close game, if Miami preferably has a close lead, I say preferably as the host of Locked on Cains as well, I would use that sort of language. I think that Miami can lean on their running game to eat clock and close the game out late. So I'm going to have Miami 31 to 23 in this one. How do you see it finishing? Yeah, Donnell, I got a very, very similar score to you. I think, again, I think Florida State comes out very high energy. very much so riding off that wave of emotion, riding off that wave of anger.

But I think that Miami is able to withstand their first punch, come out, regroup, and win this game handily just by war of attrition, bit by bit, wearing them down, leaning on them, more and more as this game goes on, just going to keep leaning, keep leaning. And I think Florida State loses this one, 3424. Pretty close. You've actually got a bigger score than I do. When we come back, Syracuse has a really, really important game on the road at SMU.

And I would say it's equally important for SMU. I mean, Syracuse had a tough conference loss last week. SMU has done terribly against the Big 12, but this is their conference opener. So the Mustangs are going to try to repeat some of that success that they had last year. And we also have to talk about two teams that have just been absolutely spiraling so far this year. Clemson and UNC. they go head to head in Chapel Hill. You want to keep it locked right here.

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Kenton Gibbs and Grayson Boone host Locked on Wolfpack. I host Locked on Cains. All right, Kenton, so let's take a look. And by the way, just to put a bow on Miami at Florida, state hurricanes are favored by four and a half points. Kenton's got Miami winning by 10. I've got Miami winning by 8. But let's go on now to Syracuse, three and two overall, one and one in the ACC, visiting SMU, two and two overall, Ofer so far in the ACC. This is going to be SMU's conference debut.

I've got the Mustangs winning at home, Kenton, and it has a lot to do with a couple of important matchups. Number one, Syracuse, I know they had another week to kind of regroup and rally, but they didn't look like the same team with Ricky Collins at quarterback. I didn't expect that much of a drop off from Steve Angelly, given how close their quarterback competition allegedly was, but they didn't look like the same offense last week when they got blown out by Duke. And another, you know, important matchup here is SMU is going to want to run the football. They've had success. Syracuse's rushing defense has been. God awful this year. So I think those

are the matchups that are going to decide this one. And on the SMU side, maybe Syracuse can make some plays in the passing game because SMU's defensive backfield has been a little bit problematic. But I trust Kevin Jennings a lot more than I trust Ricky Collins. And I trust SMU's running game to get on track. So I've got the Mustangs getting their first conference win in their first opportunity and getting off the Schneid. Yeah, they surely will. And,

I know that you and a lot of other people think the QB competition was very close, so therefore they must be closest quarterbacks. They left the spring. Because if I'm correct here, when does Stephen Jelly transfer over there? It was after spring. It was after spring. They left the spring and said, we still need to go get a quarterback. They lost Trevor Pena, one of the best slot guys and really best receivers on

overall in the nation and said, hmm, you know where we need help, quarterback. Why is that? Why is that? So even if it was a close competition, to me, a guy that you think is good enough to play and be effective, you're not going out and spending time and effort and money in the portal for a quarterback if you feel comfortable with what you already have in that room.

It was clear they were not comfortable regardless of how close. the battle ultimately ended up being. I'm not super shocked by the lack of performance by Ricky Collins in game one. He may be able to bounce back. I doubt it. I think SMU wins handily. I think they get their get right game. And, you know, as much as I like Fran Brown and Company, this is just the scheduling alone

was tough. But then you add in your starting quarterback being out for the year. And this feels like a very bad, no good, terrible year. Do they win by more than 17 points? the spread is 17 and a half. That's a very, very big number. I think they win. I'm not sure they cover.

I would actually, if I'm betting the spread, I'm betting the spread, I'm betting Syracuse plus 17 and a half. If I was betting spread, I would take Q's. If I'm taking money line, give me SMU. I think SMU wins straight up. I don't think they cover 17. This feels like a bad beats game. This feels like the one.

This feels like the one where it's like they lead by 19 for most of the game and then Syracuse is driving. They get stopped and they take a, field goal because they know like oh the game's over anyway and we'd have to score three touchdowns if we went for it let's just take our field goal get right church and let's go home and they end up losing by 16 despite trailing by 19 for a majority of them. Yeah so we have SMU winning not necessarily covering. Let's move on to Louisville, Kentucky, Kenton.

We got UVA on the road at Louisville. This one, I'm having a hard time with this one because I don't feel great about what Louisville's put on tape so far. Their offensive line has struggled. You know, their running backs have both been banged up. Isaac Brown and Duke Watson, I think maybe they've been elevated from questionable to probable, but they're still not completely healthy. Now, UVA obviously is coming off, you know, a season defining win so far, but they head into Louisville as underdogs for this one.

I think the difference in this game, Kenton, could be Louisville's defensive line in their pass rush, led by Cleve Lubin and A.J. Green. I think those might be the players who can make the difference against UVA, and maybe if we do get just a couple of big carries, because sometimes it only takes Isaac Brown one opening and one opportunity to get off and make a big play like he did against James Madison. So I think I do understand why Louisville is favored at home,

but after what UVA did last year, Friday night, nothing would shock me. Donnell, let me ask you a question, okay? I mean this from a very sincere standpoint. Miller Moss and company on this offense have played the likes of Eastern Kentucky, James Madison, Bowling Green, and Pitt. How many interceptions do you think he has on the year so far? I know how many he has.

He's got five in four games. Well, the stats on ESPN are saying three, but either way you, You cut it or slice it, you threw two interceptions against Easter Kentucky. The running game is struggling for a multitude of reasons. Either way you cut it or slice of Donald. Oh, I'm sorry. You are right. Three interceptions.

That's my bad. But Donnell, either way you cut it or slice it, I'm not trusting that Miller Moss goes out and plays six straight halves of amazing football. That second half against Pitt, chef's kiss, no notes. Great ball, brother. Great ball. I'm not trusting him to put together more of that with a running game that is not looking like what it should be. Wrong team favored.

Give me the whoos. Oh, man. And that number, by the way, let me pull that up so we know. So Louisville is favored by six and a half. So you got the who's winning and covering. Who's win, whose cover, roll, who's roll. joking. I don't know if they do anything like that. But I got the hooves in this one. I think that Virginia goes ahead and gets themselves a win here because, again, Louisville

always has that one or two games a year where they forget how to play football. This is proud to be that game. Well, let's talk when we come back about the historic coaching matchup. First time since 1993 that we've had a multiple time college national championship head coach against a multiple time Super Bowl winning head coach. It was Joe Paterno and Bill Walsh the last time this happened back in the 90s. And by the way, Walsh won that meeting. We'll see if Belichick can pull it off this time around. You want to keep it locked right here.

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Thank you for making LockdowneACC, your first listeners. We headed to a big weekend of games. Of course, headline by Miami at Florida State, but there are other interesting ones. I feel like there's going to be a lot of people either like hate watching or spite watching, Clemson at UNC for a number of different reasons, either people who don't like Dabo or people who are rooting for Belichick to fail. I mean, someone is going to get off the Schneide this weekend, Kenton. And so, all right, I look at these two teams and two situations. Both teams have underperformed. Clemson's offense is unrecognizable compared to last season.

The defensive line, which almost everyone graded number one in the country, has not shown up to nearly that level to this point. North Carolina has been an absolute mess on both sides of the football, especially offensive to keep going with Gio Lopez. But Kenton, the reason I am strongly leaning to Clemson this time around is at least this core of players. They have 80% of their roster return from last season and their core of coaches, which is, you know, not completely the same from last year, but maybe on paper even an upgraded defensive coordinator with Tom Allen there, that at least we have seen Clemson in this form. I'll let you make your point because he made a weird face at me.

at least we've seen Clemson with this group, 80% of this roster, performing last season and prior seasons. Whereas North Carolina, all we have seen is the chaos that they put on film so far this year. Clemson's coming off a by week. I would imagine we're going to get a better showing from Clemson than the last time we saw them a couple of weeks ago against Syracuse. So I'm going to think the Tigers are going to win and probably win big in Chapel Hill. Yeah, all that returning talent, throw it out.

All of that continuity on the coaching staff, throw it out. Really? Really? Here's why I say throw it out, Donno. Because have they played like a team that returned 84% of their roster from Larryson? No, but at least I know, at least I've seen it happen with this core before. That's the only thing. Here's where I'm going with this, Donald.

All that you can throw out, okay? And Donnell, you're a Miami guy, meaning you went to Miami. You're from the Miami area, correct? Yes. Okay. So you've seen some football teams that are extremely poorly coached, but they have wonderful athletes. Super athletes, they're just super poorly coached, right?

Now, if two teams are playing each other, both of which seem to have similar struggles in terms of their coaching, getting together to cohesion, but one of them has a bunch of D1 guys, and the other one has like, yeah, they got some talent, but maybe one guy goes on to play for FIU, everybody else, get ready to go work at the four plan. Like, if that's the case, which team would you pick to me?

The first one, the one with the talent. Same, same. That's the answer here. It's the one with the talent. While they have struggled against almost everybody so far this season, so has UNC. Anybody other than Charlotte, who, with all due respect to Biff Fogie, he left that, the coverage very, very barren. I mean, oh, what a mess.

And Richmond, the mighty Richmond spiders, which if I was the same, tell you, Richmond, where is Richmond? Most people would not be able to guess it off the back of their head because there are multiple Richmond, is it Richmond, California? It's not Virginia. It is Virginia. It is Virginia. Okay. But a lot of people would say, which one is?

Is it Richmond, California, Richmond, Virginia. So I say all that to say, I believe the dabble on company getting done just because the talent difference is overwhelming. This is a talent difference like, you know, like it was with Troy to the point where you're even if you see unc jump out and and you know punch him in the mouth early the talent will always prevail at some point in time and i think that's what's going to happen to this one all right so the follow-up question here because again this one's got a big spread clemson is favored by 14 and a half points on the road now again a lot more talent like you say but do you trust clemson

who has struggled against everyone on their schedule including troy who they had to come back from 16-0 to beat. Do you trust Clemson to win this game by more than two touchdowns? In the words of the Levert family at a Brueger's bagel, not enough spread. Clemson covers that handily. They have no problem at all covering that one. I think they get it done easily. Oh, man, I love it. All right. So it's some good action coming up this weekend. We'll talk about all of it when we come out of the weekend. We're also going to be keeping our eyes on Duke on the road at Cal. Okay, so real quick, Duke at Cal, because I know we got the Duke fans listening. We got the Calgarythum listening.

You know, we talked about this game the other day. I, you know, I have my reservations just about JKS against a Mani Diaz defense. That's the reason I'm picking Duke to cover. It's just a two and a half point spread. So I think Duke is going to win and cover. But do you think we're in for a magical late night in Cal, 10.30 p.m. Eastern Time game. You know, Donno, Duke fans don't deserve a team. good. They don't deserve it. They don't show up. They don't care. They're not investing up.

And yeah, Duke fans, I'm talking to you. I don't care if you come in these comments upset or whatever. Your football team may not be as stored as your basketball team, but show the hell up for these boys. They're balling. They're objectively balling. One of the greatest runs Duke has ever

been on and y'all can't be bothered to show up. What an embarrassment. Calgary the other hand. Best fans, some of the best fans of the ACC. definitely best fans in the Bay Area in ACC. Sorry, Stanford. And I'm sorry to my CEO, who also is a Stanford grad. Love you, brother.

But Cal has by far some of the best fans in the conference and in the nation. With that being said, the fans are not going to be on the field playing this game. They're not going to be on the field playing this game. I would love to say, I believe it, Jake has to do it. But I really look at that San Diego State game as a game where I ask, okay, three games of film is generally the standard. for understanding somebody's tendencies, their habits, what they want to do.

And they were absolutely shellacked by San Diego State. Now, granted, they bounced back against BC. Whose coaching tree is Bill O'Brien from again? From that rotten Belichick coaching tree? They didn't produce nothing but bad fruit. But the reality is, I think the JKS company, I think they keep this one extremely close. I just think they lose on the last second field goal

or something along those. Again, this would no upset would make me happier. Even if Virginia had to lose to Louisville in order to make this one happy, I'm fine with that exchange. I really am because I want to see Cal pull off this upset. Well, we'll leave it at that. We appreciate everyone for making Locked on ACC your first listen. Make sure you smash that like button, subscribe on Apple Podcast, Spotify, wherever you get your pods on YouTube. We'll talk to you next time on another episode of Lockdown ACC.

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