Locked On ACC - Daily College Football & Basketball Podcast - SHOWDOWN: Miami Faces NC State With NCAA & ACC Tournament Implications!

Episode Date: February 14, 2026

Jai Lucas' Miami Hurricanes take on Will Wade's NC State Wolfpack with a double bye in the ACC Tournament on the line. The Pack currently sit 4th in the conference with Miami nipping at their heels in fifth. The Hurricanes look to continue their momentum from a Quad 1 win over North Carolina mid-week. The Pack will try to bounce back from a blowout loss in Louisville. Hosts Alex Donno and Kenton Gibbs break down the matchups, the keys to the game, and the stakes. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Miami Hurricanes and North Carolina State Wolfpack are about to go head to head in an important hoops matchup. Miami's trying to follow up on their biggest win of the season, and NC State is trying to bounce back at home from a really tough loss. You are locked on ACC, your daily podcast on the Atlantic Coast Conference. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team, Every Day. Shout out to the Everydayers, and thank you so much for making this Lockdown crossover. first listen. We are on, I don't know if this has ever been done before. We are on a triple simulcast. We're live on Locked on Wolfpack. Of course, our guy, Kenton Gibbs here,

co-host of Locked on Wolfpack and former NC State defensive linemen. We're live on Locked on Cains. I am the host of Locked on Caines, and we're also live on Locked on ACC. So chances are you can't avoid this episode. No matter what site you're on, no matter what channel you're on, you are seeing this simulcast as we get you ready for a four-pe. tip off this afternoon in Raleigh, North Carolina State Wolfpack, Miami Hurricanes. We'll talk about what's at stake, who wins and why. And I believe the statistics that are going to decide this matchup, this episode is sponsored by Fandual.

The Winter Games are on, and there's no better way to follow them than with a bet on Fandual. Fan Duel. Play your game. All right, so first and foremost, Kenton, NC State, they were blown out in Louisville last game. It didn't dramatically affect the Wolfpack's tournament. position and also they're still in position for a double by in the ACC tournament, but they can't lose to Miami today if they want to hold on to that. So what's the mood and the vibes coming off that loss in Louisville and the attitude around Will Wade's team in terms of how you can bounce

back today? Yeah, so Wolfpack Nation is pretty much throwing that game away. I mean, let's be honest, it was a situation where we had the longest winning streak in the ACC to that point. We had, you know, it was a winning street that was historic for NC State, hadn't started off that hot in ACCC play since the 74 team or something like that in terms of role wins in the ACC consecutively. And so ultimately, it was kind of clear those factors plus you're playing the college version of a back-to-back where you play on Saturday night, you get Sunday off to travel, and then you play again on Monday.

That game, you throw it away. and also Will Wave said that he was he said two things as the express explicit stated goals for this team. Top four seed in the ACC and to be in the tournament. Now, Donno, you, excuse me, you and I have been following this thing real close, right? And both of us, both of us can agree the pack are firmly in the tournament right now, right? Oh, yeah, they're firmly in, yeah. Absolutely. So you go beyond that and you say right now,

You're also in position for a top four seed in the ACC. You're where you want to be. This is where Will Wade said he would have you. Will Wade didn't say, coming in year one, we're the new Duke now. Yeah, don't worry about it. There's no more Coach K. There's no more Roy Williams. This is not just our conference.

This is our nation. He said first year, expect top four and tournament. Ultimately, Will Pack Nation is. by and large still believing in the Will Wade and still believing in this team. Yeah, as they should be. And Kenton, you know, mentioned top four seed, NC State's currently the four in the ACC. Miami's currently at five. Now, if Miami can pull it off, and by the way, NC State is favored by five and a half points at home this afternoon.

If Miami can pull off the upset today, Miami would move into the four in the ACC. And also NCAA tournament-wise, you know, Kenton, you mentioned NC State firmly in the tournament at this moment. Miami might also be because the win that they got midweek Tuesday night against UNC, it was a statement dub, it was the biggest win of the season for Miami. They won it convincingly, and it was their first quad one win. And Miami in ESPN Bracketology, prior to beating UNC, they were, you know, Joe LaNardi had Miami as an 11 in the play-in, and now Miami has moved up to a more solid 10 seed right now. in Bracketology. And if Miami were to lose to NC State this afternoon, it's obviously not a bad

loss. So I don't think it would really rattle Miami too much in terms of bracketology, but the opportunities of a victory today are huge. So I mentioned Kenton now Miami considered around a 10 seat at this moment. What's it? And NC State is a little more firm in the tournament because they had better wins to this point overall. But where do they see NC State? Is it around like a seven or an eight seed? Yeah, about seven and nine is where most folks have us. You see, some seven and eight. I think there's one outlet that has NC standard of nine. The reality is this game is massive for both in conference and out of conference stuff, right?

If we talk about the in conference ramifications, top four C does not sound like a big deal until you realize, wait a minute, that means you have to play one less game than everybody else if you are to reach the championship. That's just the reality, at minimum, one less game, let alone the fact that if somebody wants to pull what DJ Burns and DJ Horn and Coach Keats did a couple of years ago, You got to win five and five days. That's reality of what you're looking at there. So ultimately, I look at this thing and I say that the either team getting a top four seed, think about this, two first year coaches. This is not just for now. This is setting up for the future.

NC State's best freshman, Matt Able, Florida guy. He was committed to Miami. He was committed to Miami. That's where he was supposed to go. before things had transpired with Miami. So this is not a game that's just about standings and seating. This is a game that's about recruiting. This is a game that's about, hey, in your one, we did better than what they did.

Hey, in year one, we showed you, oh, yeah, that Will Way guy had all the hype, but look what I did. Oh, yeah, you know, Jay was a Duke guy and everybody thought, oh, those Duke assistants always going to have success. Look what we did. Put the beats on them boys when they came to rally. So either way, you cut it or slice it. This game is about so much more than just one thing. From the most direct way possible where you're talking about ACC and NCAA CD to the indirect things that these guys are going to be recruiting against each other. They're going to be sitting in the same young men's couches saying, hey, you come here.

We're going to make you a better player, a better man, and we'll make sure you get your money before you get to the NDA. So this game has a ton, a ton of ramifications for both of these programs. And I'm going to tell you something. Valentine's Day may be known for love, but there will probably be no love lost between these two teams based on the results of the doctor. Hey, so I was catching up with some of the comments from both coaches. You know, Jay Lucas on the Miami side. One compliment that he gave to NC State that I was actually not expecting because I wouldn't have thought this would be where he went. But he actually referred to playing at NC State as the toughest road environment in the ACC.

And he said that, like, with all due respect to Duke, where he used to coach. Cameron Indoor is probably the most famous college basketball arena are up there, like top two or three. And no disrespect to North Carolina. But he mentioned NC State. You guys have a bigger building. And also, he mentioned the fans are, like, right on top of the action. So Miami's going to have to go into that environment today as a five and a half point underdog.

And you were mentioning something to me off air about Will Wade. What was it that Will Wade said about, Malik Renew, who's been Miami's top scorer and overall best player this year. Yeah, so before we get into what he said about Malik Renew, I need to properly set the scene for you, okay? Yeah. We've had multiple guys go off for career highs against NC State, including Melvin Council who played in like Division 2.

Like, he was playing the directional schools for the differently able every night. That wasn't like a cash game. That was what he did every single night. and never put up as many points as he did against NC State. And he wasn't the only one. There were multiple guys that went off for career highs. So it was asked to Will Wade, like, hey, how do you plan on fixing that defensively coming into this game? And Will Wade's response to that was, when four or five people have career nights on you, that's a trend.

Not all of that can be fixed right now. Some of that is in the offseason. We are aware, and hopefully, we'll have better plans, starting with Malik Renew on Saturday. So ultimately, Will Wade is aware. It's not just the outside chatter. It's the fact that the stats say it. It's not just the stats. It's the fact that your eyeballs saying.

You watch a game and say, now wait a damn minute. Markelle Brown ain't never shot like this before. What is this? So ultimately, Will Wade is making sure that his team is keenly aware of Malik Renew because it's a situation where he's your best score. If you're going to get beat by a team, you should at least say, make the other guys speech.

You should at least say, hey, the guy that everybody knows, he's the guy, should not be able to just go to work. All right. So what I took from that Will Wade quote was that Malik Renew is going to go off for 30 and 15 today. That's what I took from that. Stop it, Donald. You see, you see, and this is why there's no love loss between these teams. First, you'll come over temperate with CJ Bailey during football season,

just to see that reverse. And now you're saying that Malik Renew's going to go off at 30 and 15. I've got – Hold on – let me go off in a sidebar here real quick on Miami-N-C-state players going from one place to another because we've talked on locked-on-ACC before about – you guys – you landed Jojo Trader. Right. And Chance Robinson, former Miami receivers. Now, Chance barely played at Miami because he had injury troubles, but a lot of talent.

Jojo played a lot more. but I came to find out last night, Kenton, who Miami received in that trade. And it wasn't that bad of a deal because Miami baseball catcher Alex Sosa, who's a former NC State catcher, he hit a home run like into the parking garage last night. Like that, that dude looks awesome. So I guess I guess that was the guy Miami received in that Jojo Trader Trade. You know, I will say this. Alex Sosa is an absolutely amazing catcher.

And I hope he does all the great things, except when he's playing. NC State. Sure. Yeah. You know, I was a little hurt when I saw that announcement that he jumped in the transfer portal because hearing loves Sosa. Every time he was up to bat, it made my heart swell with a little pride, you know. And I'm not sure that Miami deserves that.

But, you know, life ain't about what you deserve all the time. Sometimes it's just about what you get in Miami. He told me he grew up a Miami fan Sosa. So let the young man live his dream. Yeah, yeah. But you know what? I think it's interesting how everybody grew up a Miami fan. You know, when the check hits right, it's so interesting how to check turns everybody.

If you pay me, if Lockdoor Packers said, we're replacing Bukowski with you, Ken, then we're going to give you $30,000 per episode. I'm pretty sure I'd say, you know, go, Pat, go. I've always liked cheese. I'm lactose intolerant for crying out loud. But if the money is right. And you're a Lions fan. People don't know that.

Of course, of course. You know, Detroit Westside Border Race, baby. I'd be, oh, I'd rather root for any other team. besides the dirty foot club, then the Packers. But if the check hit right, I'm going to pull out all the stops. I'll pull out all the coach speed. I was a fan for life. God told me to do it.

Hey, hey. Can't argue with that, baby. Can't argue. Hey, so we're going to continue our preview from Miami at NC State in basketball 4 p.m. today in Raleigh. Give you, I think, the most important stats that are going to decide who wins today. And we'll give you our predictions as well. Kent and Gibbs from Lockdown, Wolfpack.

I am Alex Dono from Locked on Cainz. You want to keep it locked right here on this epic crossover event. Folks, you know when we do a crossover, we love to connect with our pals at Fandual. Guys, did you ever want to experience the NBA finals live and in person? Fan Duel is giving you the chance to turn that dream into reality with their NBA sweepstakes. Here's how it works. Use your profit boost on any NBA future, and you'll automatically be entered for a shot to win an NBA final's trip for two. That's right.

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Use your profit boost on an NBA future and get entered for your chance. to win a trip to the NBA finals. Play your game with Fandul, the official sports betting partner of the NBA. I'm Kleea Butler, host of Locked-on Women's Basketball, and this is Mazda's Women's Basketball Snapshot, celebrating the work no highlight reel can ever capture. Don Staley and South Carolina remain on top of the SEC standings

after handing Tennessee their worst defeat in program history with a final score of 93 to 40. In the 43-point win, South Carolina shot 69% from the field. Tessa Johnson had a perfect shooting night, scoring 24 points, shooting four for four from the floor, including two threes, and made all four of her free throws. And UCLA remains undefeated in Big Ten play, topping Michigan 69 to 66. As player of the year contender, Lauren Betts, put up a double-double scoring 16 points, collecting 16 rebounds, and adding five assists and three blocks. These moments are earned.

off the clock. Those long before the lights ever come on. The sweat, the fakes, the doubt, the scrapes, and coming back for more every time. Mazda puts the same drive into every detail. Winds defined the moment. Putting in the work, that defines you. There's more to a Mazda because there's more to you. Thank you for making locked on ACC, locked on canes and locked on Wolfpack. Listen, we're doing a triple simulcast here to get you ready for Miami at NC State Basketball this afternoon 4 p.m. I think it's going to be on TV. ESPN 2, if I'm not mistaken. It's going to be on one of those, one of those ESPN channels today. And folks, if you're an everydayer of any of our great shows, make sure you make your status official by joining the everydayer club.

Go to locked on podcast.com slash everydayer. And if you join the everydayer club for any or all of these shows, locked on Wolfpack, locked on Canes, locked on ACC, you get exclusive benefits like ad-free versions of our shows, Discord chat access, exclusive discounts on the Locked-on merch store, and so much more. Go to Lockdownpodcast.com slash every dayer. All right, so Kenton, I look at this, and there is an NC State component to this, but if I look at it from a Miami point of view, the statistics that I believe will decide this game if Miami's going to have a shot to pull off the upset. Miami's perimeter defense, because NC State, now that Louisville game was an aberration in just about every way whatsoever. But NC State on the season,

they lead the ACC in three-point field goal percentage this year at just under 40%. They're near, they're also pretty good in an opponent field goal percentage from three as well. Miami is not very good at shooting threes, but for Miami perimeter defense against one of the best three-point shooting teams in the country and the best in the ACC. And then for NC State to try to slow Miami down. Miami does most of their damage in the paint, Kenton. And, you know, Malik Renew, Uday with his rebounds, do a lot of that damage up front. Miami, for example, outscored North Carolina in the paint, 46 to 28. That was plus 18 in the paint. Miami gets to the free throw line a ton. But for NC State perimeter defense and doing it without fouling, because Miami leads the

ACC in free throw attempts, not in free throw percentage. So Miami has to cleaner, has to have a cleaner night from the charity stripe. But, you know, they can still put opponents into foul trouble. So Miami will try to do their damage in the paint, and they'll try to stop NC State from going crazy from three. What a former Duke coach likes to attack the rim? Who could have predicted this? Who could have guessed it?

But no, in all seriousness, Miami wants to play bullyball. And when you talk about the statistics that correlate with that, there's one that I think you left off that's going to be vitally important here. I'm one of the best rebounding teams in the ACC. They average 12 offensive rebounds a game. That, to me, is going to be a massive deciding factor. Because do you know what leads to a lot of those files that get Miami to the line? When a team is getting offensive rebounds, more often than not, they're in between the defender and the rim.

They went up, got the rebound. And so on the way back up, a defender's doing all he can scrambling to just say, anything to stop this guy, anything to not give him an easy too. and that's why you get to the line as often as you do. NC State is not very good at Revive. That's just the reality. You know what this roster is. You know what the size of efficiencies bring.

And so with that in mind, a longer and just outright more physical Miami team will want to push you around. But in the words of Darwin Ham, you've got to meet force with force. You've got to do it. I know y'all thought that the other Darwin Ham quote was coming out. Stop it.

Just because it's not a time. They don't mean your mind should go there. So, you know, you've got to meet force for force. You've got to be physical back with them. And if Miami, I think Miami is going to win the rebounding battle. However, Miami cannot dominate the rebounding battle if you're NC State. They cannot have a plus 10, plus 12, plus 15 advantage. Because at that point, they are guaranteeing themselves multiple extra opportunities

and the other part of an offensive rebound, defenses are often left scrambling, often offensive rebound because everybody was just trying to crash the boards or leaking out or whatever the case may be. And now there are open guys on the perimeter, which Miami's not a great three-point shooting team. But they got guys on scholarship too. They got guys getting paid NIL money too. And if you leave guys open long enough, hell, anybody could hit one or two of them. So the reality is I think that the boards are going to be a massive part. But the other part, what you said in terms of NC State's ability to hit from deep.

I mean, NC State is a team that has not lived and died by the three, but I will tell you, when it falls, everything rose smoother. I've noticed that. Everything rose smoother. You think about the tip of the spear, and I know Miami fans don't like to hear about spears and whatnot. I get it. I'm sorry, it was accident.

But you're looking at Quadra Copeland as a big guard who likes to take guards in the paint and try to figure out how he can find those angles and use his size to an event. What stops that? Teams being able to leave guys in the paint. What allows teams to pack the paint, an inability to shoot from deep? So a cold shooting night now makes it worse for everybody offensively for NC State, as opposed to having multiple folks showing up and knocking down free in terms of Paul McNeil, Darien Williams, and Matt Abel and company, you know, when guys are striping, the offense opens up.

So I'm thinking, like, for Miami, an obvious X factor for today. And again, I'm not breaking any ground by bringing this up, but it's worth noting. True Washington is going to be available. And so, like, his reintegration, and it's not like he missed, like, two months or something. But True Washington, starting shooting guard at Miami, was away from the team for two games for personal reasons. He was back with the team for the North Carolina game, but Coach Lucas had mentioned, like, he hadn't been back at practice for very long. So it wasn't really fair to him or the team to try to try to. you know, force him back into the rotation until he had practiced more.

But Jay Lucas did say the true Washington will be available today. So, you know, how he hits the ground running after being away from the team for a bit, how many minutes he plays will he start? All of that stuff is going to be an X factor for Miami. Anything you look at from the NC state side, you say, any one that could be an X factor today. Yeah, so there's a guy that statistically he doesn't jump off the page. You look at him and say, like, why would he be your X factor? But the big fella, the international freshman, Musa Sanya, is going to be vital in this game

because I think you're going to see a lot more of that Twin Towers lineup. The lineup that I'm referring to being Sanyae and Van Allen Lubin on the court at the same time. Van Allen Lubin, steady as she goes. You know what you're getting from Van Allen Luben. He's a very good finisher around the rim, very good touch, pretty good rebounder. Rim defending, not really there. Musa Sanya, on the other hand, he's a little bit more mercurial. sometimes he looks like proma key and elijah ron down there not in terms of the post moves i mean just in terms of

shot blocking and and rebounding and whatnot and then there are other times where it's like this guy looks lost he looks a little timid he looks like guys are moving around furniture and he's the furniture he's the love seat that's being moved so ultimately if musa sanjay shows up in a relevant and meaningful way if he is a net positive and will way can give him let's say 12 to 15 15 minutes and he's a plus in those minutes. I think that this game decidedly shifts to NC State's way, but that's a big if because I've seen him be good. I've seen him be the rim protecting intimidator.

I've seen him be a guy that cleans glass like nobody's business. And I've also seen times where it's like, how do he get a scholarship? Who is this young man? Oh, man. All right. Let's move into our picks. And again, NC State is favored by five and a half points. The over under is 157.5.

And I'm going to go with the game going just over. I'm going to pick Miami to pull off the mild upset. And it's going to count on not only Miami playing their usual stellar defense, but true Washington, assuming he's full go and full fitness and everything, average is just under two steals per game. Miami really excels in that part of their game. Kenton mentioned the rebounding. So it's weird.

So much of this is predicated on defense, but I still have it going slightly over. At 81.79, Miami, I think it's going to be really entertaining, and we're going to see some important final possessions down the stretch. How do you see this one playing out? We both predict Miami scoring 81 points. The only problem is I think that NC State is going to score a little bit more than that. I think it's going to be 88, 81, because two is worth more.

I'm sorry, three is worth more than two. And Miami is not. very good at hitting the thing that gets you three points. So I think that NC State pulls this one off because I look at last game as much more of an aberration for NC State in the negative. And I look at Miami's last game being an aberration to the positive. But the law of averages is always going to bring you all roads lead to wrong. That's what I think is going to happen here.

And I think the law of averages brings NC State back to their average of what they normally are. Miami's average brings them back to what they are, which would ultimately result in the win for NC State. I love it. Well, Kenton Gibbs has it 88, 81. Wulf Pack, I've got it 81.79 hurricanes. We'll find out starting at 4 o'clock today. And again, double by in the ACC is potentially on the line here. NC State is the four seed right now. Miami trying to pull that four seed today. Top four seeds get a double by in the ACC tournament, NCAA tournament seeding also on the line. Thanks everyone to making Locked on Cains, Locked on Wolfpack, and Locked on ACC, your first listen. Always happy we can simulcast on two, three, 30 channels at one time. It's always great.

Make sure you join that every day or club, and we'll talk to you again next time on another episode right here on the number one Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day.