Locked On ACC - Daily College Football & Basketball Podcast - SLEEPER: Duke Football Emerges as ACC Dark Horse | Can Manny Diaz SHOCK the Conference?

Starting point is 00:00:00 Duke football, perhaps one of the bigger sleepers in the ACC in 2025. You are Locked-on ACC, your daily podcast on the Atlantic Coast Conference. Part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Hello, everyone. This is Locked-on ACC. I'm Jackson Holzer, the host of Locked-on Syracuse. Of course, we're always joined by our co-host, Kenton Gibbs, former NC State defensive tackle and co-host of the Locked-on Wolfpack podcast.

Starting point is 00:00:40 And on today's show, we are previewing the Duke Blue Devils. And of course, we have on host J.J. Jackson, the host of Locked-on Duke Blue Devils. We're going to go over their season prediction, talk about their defense. And we're going to start the podcast talking about their offense. All that and more here on today's show. and this episode is brought to you by Monarch Money. Take control of your finances with Monarch Money. Use code locked on college at monarchmoney.com for 50% off your first year.

Starting point is 00:01:16 JJ, thank you so much for taking the time to join us to talk about the Duke. Blue Devils, they are led by second year head coach Mani Diaz, who in his first season had a very, very good year with Duke going nine and four. Let's talk about the offense, though, because they're going to have a new quarterback under center. out goes Malik Murphy, in comes two lane transfer, Dary and Mentsa, who Duke paid a lot for.

Starting point is 00:01:40 So J, J, J, what are your expectations for him this upcoming season? I think they've got to be incredibly high guys. When you look at kind of the price tag that Duke reportedly spent on Dary and Mintsa to come in and be their quarterback. I mean, this is a Duke football team

Starting point is 00:01:56 that under first year head coach for Duke Manny Diaz a year ago, Malik Murphy set the school passing record. record, right? Like he very obviously had by every Duke football standard out there, a successful season as the starting quarterback for the Blue Devils after transferring in from Texas. And yet there were still moments throughout the year where the offensive staff for Duke and Coach Diaz felt like they could get more out of the quarterback position. It wasn't the happiest of marriages there at the end following the year. And so in comes Darian Minza, who took just one visit back in the winter, went to Duke, was able to go to a basketball game and said,

Starting point is 00:02:35 you know what, this is it, this is where I want to be. Duke ponied up. They paid the high price tag. And now when you spend that much money and you're returning a good bit on the offensive side of the ball up front, some skill guys at the whiteout spot, I think you've got to have pretty high expectations for Mintsa. Well, I'm super glad that he went to a basketball game for a visit because he saw exactly how many fans are going to be in Wallace Wade during football season. No, I'm just joking. But in all seriousness, this is the second most successful three-year span in Duke football history. Only once before this has Duke ever won 26 or more games over a three-year span, right?

Starting point is 00:03:21 How does Duke capitalize on this? How does Duke build on this in a very changing? world. You know, what does Duke do as a following act, too? Elko has two great years. He leaves. Manny Diaz comes back. He looks like the coach that everybody thought he would be after leaving Texas originally. How do you build on this as Duke football? Yeah, that's the big question, Kent, because you look at what Duke has done, to your point, over the last three years, keep in mind, there's a coaching change that took place in that timeline, right? It was the first two years of Mike Elko and in the first year of Manny Diaz,

Starting point is 00:03:56 a different conversation to be had could be about the decade plus that Duke was able to get out of David Cutcliffe, and I know that there were some tough years there at the end, but granted, in the scheme of Duke football, I think he deserves a little bit more credit. Here we are three years later that you've been able to bring in two coaches

Starting point is 00:04:15 and be so successful in their first two seasons, or first seasons there. And so for Manny Diaz, now you're hoping to be able to replicate that, going into the year. But yeah, this is just unprecedented, man, the kind of seeing the momentum that Duke football has been able to carry. We're seeing it right now on the recruiting trail for Manny Diaz.

Starting point is 00:04:34 And hopefully, once the fall gets here, he's able to follow that up with more wins as well. We'll get some more of your expectations for Duke in 2025 later on the show as far as win prediction, a bowl game, maybe the college football playoff. We'd love to hear your thoughts on that later on in the show. But back to the offense specifically, JJ, when you look at it, aside from the quarterback room, because we already touched on Darry and Mensa, what's the biggest strength of the unit? Yeah, I think you feel good about the running backs that you've got there with Joaquinsmore and

Starting point is 00:05:06 Peyton Jones going into the season. And so if you're kind of looking at your chart of strengths on the offense, if I could give you maybe Brian Parker on the offensive line, the recognition he's getting going into the season, but again, that's just an individual player. group-wise, I think I would lean running back there. The reason I wouldn't go wide receiver and the reason I think this is a big question for Duke going into the season is because last season they lost Jordan Moore, who did every single thing for this Duke offense. His college career came to a close, started as a quarterback, made so many big-time plays for Duke at wide receiver throughout the year. Eli Pankel graduated.

Starting point is 00:05:44 And so now for Duke, you're looking at Quayshon Brown and Samir Hagan's returning. They bring over Andrew Anthony, a former Oklahoma wide receiver, to join that route as well. So I think there are certainly players out there to take on larger roles in the wide receiver room. They're just a little bit unproven. So Kenton, I don't know if you agree with me there, but certainly when I look at the running backs, at least I'm familiar enough with Joaquin Jones. Because after Jordan Waters left, people are curious who's going to step up. Now we've had a full season of that tandem being in action.

Starting point is 00:06:17 I mean, you talk about the things that are unprecedented for Duke. The winning was one of them, but also this string of running back. I mean, you know, you look at cut clips last couple years. I can't remember that running back. Oh, what is it? Mateo Durant. He kept giving Mattel that damn ball. He's still running today.

Starting point is 00:06:34 Mattel don't even want to see no big skin. He don't need more. That's how much he touched the ball. But in terms of this offense and what groups you're looking at and saying, hey, this is a question mark, potentially a liability. if we are limited offensively, this may be the group that does it. Where would you say that loss? I think you've got to go back to the wide receivers.

Starting point is 00:06:53 Just because of the workload that you had for Jordan Moore and Eli Pankel a season ago. And you did see a little bit of Samir Higgins. You did see a little bit of Quayshod Brown. And as the year progressed, they got better. But I want to see how much Duke can stretch the field. Malik Murphy's known for this big arm that he's got. And obviously he sets the passing record for the program. But it wasn't always accurate.

Starting point is 00:07:15 And there were several games where you're looking at the turnovers and you're figuring out, wait, how did Duke win this game when they were throwing the ball as erratically as they were? And so if I'm taking quarterback out of the equation and I'm wanting to be successful in the passing game, let me see what the wide receivers are able to do. I've always said Malik Murphy is like the poor man's Anthony Richardson because he makes these plays that are like, oh my God, he's going to be a first ride pick one day. and then he tross did a swing pass. You're just like, what, uh, where do we, what are we doing here? The difference is that Anthony Richardson actually went top five. And we're seeing how that's actually working out right now for the Indianapolis Colts. Spoiler alert.

Starting point is 00:08:00 Sorry, Indianapolis Colts fans. Don't know how many of you are actually here watching this episode, but, uh, hasn't gotten very well so far for the Colts. But anyways, we're joined by JJ Jackson, the host of Locked on Duke Blue Devils. We just talked about Duke's. offense for the 2025 season. So you know what that means. Coming up later on here on the show,

Starting point is 00:08:20 we're going to discuss Duke's defense. And at the end, a season prediction for the Duke Blue Devils. Stick with us here on Locked-on ACC. Ever wish managing your money felt easier. With Monarch money, it can. Whether you're growing your savings or planning a big purchase, Monarch puts you in the driver's seat. It's like having your own personal CFO, giving you full visibility,

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Starting point is 00:09:11 And you could take control of your finances today with Monarch Money. Just use promo code locked on college at monarchmoney.com for 50% off your first year. That's monarchmoney.com code locked on college for half off your first year. This is locked on ACC. I'm Jackson Holeser, the host of Locked on Syracuse. Of course, we're always joined by Kenton Gibbs, the host of Lockedon Wolfpack and former NC State defensive tackle. And of course, since we're previewing the Duke Blue Devils here on this show, we are joined by J.J. Jackson, the host of Locked-on Duke Blue Devils. We just went over the offense with new

Starting point is 00:09:53 quarterback, Darian Mensa. We're now switching gears and we're going to the defense now. So, JJ, Duke was seventh in the ACC last year in both total defense. So that's yards allowed per game and scoring defense. So top seven in both is pretty good. What did you like about the defense last year? And how do you think it can improve? for 2025. I think any year or any opportunity that you've got to have another year with the same coordinators on staff and head coach, Jimani Diaz, who is defensive oriented, you can only assume your team's going to be able to take a step forward in that direction.

Starting point is 00:10:33 You mentioned kind of where Duke was at in total defense there within the conference. I thought it was fitting last season when we got to bowl season and Duke is paired up with Ole Miss. Those two teams, Duke and Ole Miss, led the country, and tackles for loss this past year. Getting after the quarterback, putting a lot of pressure in the backfield was certainly a strength of Duka season ago. It just left them more susceptible on the back end of the defense. But when you look at Manny Diaz coming over from Penn State previously,

Starting point is 00:11:03 Jonathan Packy had been with him back at Miami, and then he had stops at Texas State. You look at those two guys combined. You're looking at four or five years in a row here now that they have ranked top five nationally in tax. for loss. So Kenton, you're the former defensive player here in the ACC. I don't know exactly what they're dialing up every single third down or in these kind of run situations. But it's working because my goodness, are they racking up all these TFLs? Well, we can get into the inside

Starting point is 00:11:33 baseball of how Mandy Diaz is a master of disguise some other time. But the two big names on this defense, the two boys in the back end in terms of Chandler Rivers and Terry Moore, we all know they're the stars of this defense. And the more I think about it, the more I start to say, Manny Diaz that do it's kind of a match made in heaven because he wants to trick you. He has to have very cerebral players. And what better place to get those players that think at a high level than Duke? But in terms of the secondary, in terms of more and rivers and all that they bring,

Starting point is 00:12:04 what do you think the ceiling is for that secondary? Because like you said, Menni Dia is going to be aggressive. He's going to bring dogs. You're going to think that he's coming this way and he's coming that way. where you're going to think it's up, it's down, his leftist. You never know what's going on there. But it's going to depend on a secondary that can kind of hold the fort one-on-one or that can disguise these coverages pretty well in their own right.

Starting point is 00:12:26 What do you think the ceiling is for the secondary, which I believe is undoubtedly the strength of this Duke defense? Yeah, certainly. And I mean, I'll give some love to those big dogs up front when we're talking about Vijay Anthony and Wesley Williams, Aaron Hall, to make a big impact on that front for Duke, making the job a whole lot easier for Chandler Rivers, Terry Moore. I mean, we look at the top players going into the conference. I think Chandler

Starting point is 00:12:48 Rivers has got to be there. I'm really excited to see his season this year and then what that can translate to in a possible professional career beyond this year. I know a lot of people in Duke circles on message boards and all those places truly are kind of surprised that Chandler Rivers is even back in Durham in the first place because we're not thinking of Duke football being the destination for so many play people. And there were so many other opportunities and offers for Chandler Rivers to play ball elsewhere. So he's certainly going to leap the charge for this young group.

Starting point is 00:13:21 Duke really likes to Sean Stone and what he's been able to do on the back end as well with larger reps and more opportunities this season. So excited to see him kind of play in the back end alongside Terry Moore. But yeah, I'm fired up, man, because when they're putting so much pressure on the quarterback, go find the football. And hopefully Duke's going to do a better job

Starting point is 00:13:41 doing that this season. JJ, we've talked a lot about already the stars of the Duke defense as well as the offense earlier on in the show. Who's an under the radar guy on Duke's defense? Who's someone that you can see breaking out in a big way in 2025? Yeah, I briefly mentioned him a moment ago, but I love Aaron Hall and what he does on the interior as obviously sacks are amazing. They're an incredible play that you want to watch.

Starting point is 00:14:08 And seeing VJ Anthony come around the edge, Wesley Williams getting to the backfield as often as he does, something to be said about just pluggers on that defensive front that can make things happen in so many ways. There's a reason Duke's been able to be so successful. And I think it starts with somebody like Aaron Hall in that spot for the Blue Devils. And then Deshaun Stone, like I said, stepping up, having a bigger role this season for Duke in the secondary, I think is big.

Starting point is 00:14:36 The one position group we haven't talked about, that I'm really curious to see what it looks like are the linebackers for Duke because there were so many graduations from a season ago and guys off to the NFL starting their professional careers for Duke. So as Duke kind of exits spring ball going through the summer workouts

Starting point is 00:14:55 and getting ready for the season, I can't wait to get the fall camp guys so I could start to kind of learn and see who are going to be these big time playmakers for Duke in the linebacker room because I know that that's what this coaching staff is trying to figure out themselves. Danny Diaz hangs his hat on the defensive end, former defensive coordinator, big time defensive guy.

Starting point is 00:15:16 What do you think he brings to this defense as a coach from an Exxon O standpoint that you then look at and say, you know, even with some of the questions that we have, I think we'll be okay because he's there. Or are you more on the side of he's a hell of a recruiter? He needs to keep that up because his schemes aren't exactly it. Where would you fall in that spectrum of things? You'd know wiser than me, honestly, Kenton. But if I were to kind of throw a guess and just from what I've been able to see with him over the years,

Starting point is 00:15:43 I think he clearly knows what in the world he's doing. I think you look at where he's been, the stops that he's made prior to Duke, right? When you're at Penn State, when you're leading the Miami football program, when you're a player at Florida State, these are all programs that traditionally have done a really fair job of recruiting themselves over the years.

Starting point is 00:16:04 So in that regard, there's not as big of a need to work on the recruiting aspect. And so if he is spending more time in that area, good. Duke's needed it. Obviously, you're not going to be able to compete head to head with some of those other big stomping grounds along the way. And he's been able to rely a little bit more on the likes of Jonathan Pachia's defensive coordinator and some of the other assistant coaches there on the staff

Starting point is 00:16:28 to make sure the scheme is still in a good spot and ready to go. That's J.J. Jackson, Jackson, Jackson, Jackson, Hulzer. of course, we're always joined by Kent and Giz. We've talked about the Duke offense. We've talked about the Duke defense. And coming up, we're going to give our season prediction, of course, starting with JJ for Duke this upcoming season. Stick with us here on Locked on ACC.

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Starting point is 00:18:37 Locked on Syracuse, locked on Duke, of course, and locked on NC State Wolfpack. We are free and available wherever you get your podcasts. We've talked about the Duke offense. We've talked about the Duke defense. So, JJ, I'm just going to turn it over to you. What's your season prediction for the Duke Blue Devils in 2025? You know, I really do think this Duke team is going to be able to continue the upward trend that they've been on over the last few seasons, right?

Starting point is 00:19:05 You look at the schedule that Duke's got in front of them. And in so many ways, like, it's, I think, one of the more favorable kind of schedules that you can have in the ACC. There are a couple of question marks early in non-conference that I think you could have when you look at a team like Illinois that Duke will play in the second week of the year. I think Luke Altmeier coming back, quarterback for them out of the Big Ten, is a tough test for Duke. But at least you're playing that game at home.

Starting point is 00:19:32 Week three, talk about storylines. How did the schedule end up with Duke playing at Tulane where we're taking Darian Mintsa back to his former spot? I mean, everybody in college football should want to watch that. And that is a game, you know, I really want Duke to win that football game, as I'm sure Darian Mintsa does as well. Those are kind of those big games that I've got questions about in the non-conference. And then looking at conference games for Duke, Clemson is obviously a big hold-up that they've got on their schedule. schedule this season. I think a team like Georgia Tech, who is one of the ACC teams that beat Duke a season ago, should feel good about their chances once again in the game against

Starting point is 00:20:14 Duke this year. That would be one that I'd have circled as a big question mark and possibly a loss for the Blue Devils going into the year. Here we are talking about a nine-win head coach for Duke in the ACC in his first year. And you think, wow, that's got to be the best in the league. No, there's the guy way up north there at Syracuse that you know Jackson and Fran Brown, who had the most wins as a first year head coach in the league when he had 10 a season ago. So that Syracuse game creates a bit of a question mark for me. I'm looking at 8 and 4 realistically right now for this Duke team. I'd be a little shocked if they were able to pull off another 9 and 3 season going into this upcoming year,

Starting point is 00:20:55 but I certainly think 8 and 4 is attainable for the bunch. Let's get crazy. Let's get Wally. I absolutely see this team. I see their floor as eight wins, JJ. I really and truly do. I am a person who is a doubter of first year quarterbacks, but I think that MNsat, first year transfer quarterbacks,

Starting point is 00:21:15 but I think that MNsau would be the exception to the rule here. Because if you watch Duke football last year, like J.J. alluded to, Murphy broke the record for most past yards, all that good stuff. He was not asked to be Mr. Everything in that office. I don't think that this office will be, hey, if Mensa can't do it, he can't get us home. Defensively, I love what Mandy Diaz and company are doing. And like JJ already alluded to, the schedule, the schedule, the schedule.

Starting point is 00:21:42 That's the biggest thing for me. I look at this team and I say right now, I'm pretty sure if we went to ESPN and they had all of their FPI predictions up for all these games, I think that Duke would be not favored in three of those games. I'd say Illinois, Clemson, Georgia Tech. That's it. I don't see any other game where you look at it and you say, man, if Duke won that, I'd be surprised. That'd be a little bit of an upset.

Starting point is 00:22:09 So I see their floor as kind of eight wins. You get all of the ones that you should except one maybe. And ceiling much higher than that. I can see a ceiling of you beat everybody except a Clemson next year. But I will say this. I will say this. What I actually believe, will happen. I think that we see our first ever time where Duke breaks out nine wins in three

Starting point is 00:22:33 years, three out of four years. I think this is the first time in Duke football history that will happen. And these coaches have earned it. These players have earned it. I mean, from Elko to Diaz, they have done a spectacular job. And some people say, well, it was Elko's remnant still being around there that kind of allowed that to happen. But I don't know. I really have a feeling that Duke is building something sustainable in Durham, which worries me over here in Raleigh, because we got to share an airport and all that good stuff. I'm worried. I'm worried a little bit.

Starting point is 00:23:04 Thankfully, hopefully somebody comes and calls many Diaz if he wins nine next year and say, hey, come get some of the SEC money. Come on down to Stark bid. We got a lot more money for you, you know. And then we start all over again. The cycle never stops over at Duke. When I look at Duke, there's a reason why I started this podcast by saying they might be one of the big sleepers in the ACC this upcoming season because it's it's it's duke football i mean like

Starting point is 00:23:31 it's duke football i ain't duke basketball is certainly not a sleeper duke football how many people actually realize they won nine games aside from duke fans last year how many people actually realize that like this is one of the better program in the acc over the past few seasons despite there being a coaching change i look at their schedule it's funny because the other big sleeper in the conference is Georgia Tech. They get Georgia Tech at home. That game, it's on the table that that game decides who the second team is in the conference championship game.

Starting point is 00:24:09 Because you got to figure, you got to figure that Clemson's going to get there. They're just going to. They're only likely. Outside of that, I mean, Miami's certainly going to be a good team, right? There'll be some other good teams in there as well. why not Duke? They got a favorable schedule. You got Georgia Tech at home?

Starting point is 00:24:29 I could see Duke having one of those type of, I don't know if it's the right word or one of those excellent seasons. One of those truly excellent seasons that you look back on and you say, man, remember 2025 Duke Blue Devils. It might not happen. It might happen once every 20 years. But that could be the type of year that Duke is headed for, especially with Derry Mentso over at quarterback.

Starting point is 00:24:53 and yeah, I'm looking forward to that game against Tulane. That's going to be fun. JJ, any last thoughts? No, just really excited for football season to be here, man. It's one thing to kind of speculate what the position groups are going to look like and that sort of thing, a whole other thing to be able to line them up and that sort of thing. And we were able to have an entire football conversation in the heart of Tobacco Road when you've got this Duke and North Carolina rivalry and not pay attention at all to those folks in Chapel Hill and Chapel Bill,

Starting point is 00:25:21 whatever the heck is going on over there. So this was lovely, guys. I'm going to tell you something. Y'all need to take the fans from basketball and push them over to football. Because I'm going to take. I love what Duke football is doing. I came to the Duke Clemson game

Starting point is 00:25:40 where y'all got the upset last year. Hell of a game. The environment wasn't there. But by the time that y'all played Notre Dame, y'all are undefeated. They're undefeated, I believe. And I'm like, okay, this one, the fans are going to show up.

Starting point is 00:25:52 And it's still what, and I'm like, listen, Durham has a real team, y'all. They got a squad here. You got to show them some love. So really and truly, if you're a Duke fan listening to this, tell all your Duke friend fans. I mean, Duke friend friends, go to these football games because this team deserve. They're putting together something special right now. And Jackson and I and JJ all agree. This could be a year for the books for Duke.

Starting point is 00:26:19 So they need your support. Show up and show out, folks. They brought college game day to a Duke football game for the first time ever this past year. Exactly. Right? And you mentioned Notre Dame and Clemson and the big wins that Duke has had in recent years. Also last year, I know they were terrible, but again, to kind of put in perspective where Duke football is at, Duke had, Duke never beat Florida State ever in football.

Starting point is 00:26:44 And there were some, you know, down FSU years over the years, and Duke still couldn't beat them until last year. momentum is building and I'm excited to see them carry that, carry that on here in 2025. Well, unfortunately for Duke, they do not have FSU in their schedule this year. But if they did, that would be another free win for them. But anyways, that is JJ Jackson, the host of Locked on Duke Blue Devils, previewing everything you need to know about Duke football for the 2025 college football season. I'm Jackson Holzer, the host of Lockdown, Syracuse. We're always joined by Kenton Gibbs, the host of Lockdown Wolfpack.

Starting point is 00:27:20 former NC State defensive tackle, and we'll be back soon previewing another team in the ACC. So tune in soon.

Locked On ACC - Daily College Football & Basketball Podcast - SLEEPER: Duke Football Emerges as ACC Dark Horse | Can Manny Diaz SHOCK the Conference?

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