Locked On ACC - Daily College Football & Basketball Podcast - UPSET: Florida State Aims to DERAIL Miami's Perfect Season | Who Will EMERGE Victorious?

Starting point is 00:00:00 Miami, Florida State could be another classic. Here's each team's path to victory. You are Locked on ACC, your daily podcast on the Atlantic Coast Conference. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. Hello, everyone, and welcome in the Locked on ACC. I'm Jackson Holeser, the host of Locked On Syracuse, and thank you for making Locked on ACC. your first listen of every single day here on the locked on podcast network,

Starting point is 00:00:37 your team. Every day, we are always free and available wherever you get your podcasts. And on today's show, we'll preview the upcoming ACC Slate. But first, and for most of this show, we got to talk about the big game coming up on Saturday night, 7.30 p.m. Eastern Florida State hosting the Miami Hurricanes. each team's three keys to victory. And of course, later on, I will be giving my prediction for this game as well. And hey, what are your thoughts?

Starting point is 00:01:10 Who do you think is going to win? Miami or Florida State? Comment in the comments section below. And before we get to everything, this episode is brought to you by Mazda, like our players. We sweat every detail because when you make every move count, pulling off the unexpected is only the beginning. Stay tuned later for highlights in this week's moving together. game forward. Mazda, move and be moved. Before we break down Miami, Florida State, I will start the show by giving Florida States three keys to victory, three keys to pulling off an upset

Starting point is 00:01:44 here. I just want to say that I will be hosting a solo show here on Locked-on ACC every single Friday for the foreseeable future. And it's a pleasure to be with you all. Thank you all so much. With that being said, let's get into this matchup. First and foremost, okay, let's address this right now. I'm giving Florida State a legitimate shot to win this game. Fandual, if you check the odds over there, Fandu has Florida State currently at home as a four and a half point underdog. So the odds makers are also saying that Florida State has a chance to win this game.

Starting point is 00:02:23 And I understand what happened last week. Florida State fans, I know you probably don't really want to. talk about it. But I still believe in this Florida State team. I still think they are a very good bunch. And this is a great opportunity for Florida State to get back into that ACC title conversation. I mean, they kind of need to win this game to even make Charlotte. And also to potentially make the college football playoff, at least as an at large team, comes Selection Sunday, of course. Big game for Florida State. Can they pull off the upset?

Starting point is 00:02:57 here are three keys to success, three keys to win this one. Number one, they need an efficient passing game. Florida State needs to make Miami at least respect their ability to throw the football. Here's a stat about Florida State quarterback Thomas Tostiano said, yes, I researched, I researched this on Thursday afternoon, and I double checked it, triple checked it, quadruple checked it, whatever. And I understand that Thomas Tostianos was the Boston College quarterback last year. But over the past two seasons, Thomas Tostianos has attempted 20 or more passes in a game five times.

Starting point is 00:03:43 Can you guess the record of his teams when he has to throw the ball 20 or more times? Take a wild guess. All right, times up. the record is oh and five. That's right. Thomas Castellanos led teams are 0 and 5 over the past two years when he attempts 20 or more passes.

Starting point is 00:04:05 And you can say, hey, he was at Boston College last year. They're not very good. Well, he attempted more than 20 passes last week against Virginia for Florida State, of course. So I bring up that stat to you all for this. You have to figure that Miami is going to come out and they're going to key on Florida State's rushing attack. And that includes Thomas Castianos.

Starting point is 00:04:29 We know how good of a runner he is. But if Florida State can't at least be efficient when they are throwing the football, I'm not saying they have to go out and throw the football 25 times in order to win this game. No, but they have to be efficient with it. They have to make Miami respect their ability to throw the football. go asked Florida what happened a couple of weeks ago when Miami was able to key on their rushing attack because Miami realized very quickly in that game. And I understand Florida State is better than Florida, but it's a similar effect here.

Starting point is 00:05:07 Okay. Miami realized very early on they don't trust DJ Lagway to throw the football down the field. They just don't. And so as a result, everyone's crowding the line of scrimmage. good luck running the football against that Miami team. Good luck. It's already hard enough to throw against them, but good luck running against that front.

Starting point is 00:05:29 Florida State needs to have an efficient passing game and make Miami back off just a little bit from the line of scrimmage in order to get their rushing attack going. Of course, Miami, for what it's worth, they have an elite passing defense, but their rushing defense, you ready for this? They allow 76 rushing yards allowed per game. that and also 2.6 yards per carry.

Starting point is 00:05:55 It's not going to be easy to run the football against Miami. That's why they need an efficient passing attack. Number two, I think this is very important for this particular matchup. Florida State has to start fast. It would be very beneficial for Florida State in order to execute their game plan, excuse me, if they can get out to a 10-0-0 lead, a 14-0 lead, a 13-3 lead, something along those lines, get up double digits as quickly as possible. Miami's offense is pretty balanced. They obviously have a very good quarterback in Carson Beck, and they have multiple

Starting point is 00:06:37 running backs over there that can beat you. No disrespect to Carson Beck. But if you're Florida State, pick your poison. How would you like Miami to attack you? Do you want them gashing you with their rushing ability? Because their rushing attack is one of the best in the ACC. Or do you want Carson Beck to throw the ball 40 times potentially in order for Miami to win this game? Florida State, for what it's worth, they have the third best passing defense in the ACC.

Starting point is 00:07:11 If you are Florida State, you want to try to make Miami as unbalanced as. possible. And that starts with getting off to a quick start. So that is key number two. And also for what it's worth, forgot to mention this. Miami has not trailed for a single second this season. Not one. They've been tied. They've played in some close games, but they have not trailed just yet. if you're Florida State, you want to get ahead early, and let's see what happens to Miami when they have to play from behind. So getting off to a fast start, very key for Florida State to pull off this upset. And number three, I got a feeling that this is going to be a lower scoring game.

Starting point is 00:08:01 I don't think either team is going to touch 30. I think odds are one team gets to 20-ish and the other might not get to 20. I'll go over it later on in my prediction. But this is one of those games where I think both teams will have some trouble moving the football because these are two good defenses, at least, I think, because I don't know what happened to Florida State's rushing defense last week against Virginia. But on paper, these are pretty good defenses, right? And oftentimes in these low-storing games,

Starting point is 00:08:34 it comes down to a couple of factors. Turnovers, that's a big one. but I think that's a universal key no matter what. Hey, don't turn the ball over to win the game. The other one is field position. I think Florida State, in order to win this game, they got to consistently win the field position battle. That means they really got to be on point with their special teams,

Starting point is 00:09:00 particularly with punting the football. For example, if Florida State stalls out near midfield, they got to pin Miami deep in their own territory. That's just what they got to do. Force Miami to have to drive the ball down the field 80, 90 yards. Yes, they're capable of doing it. They're absolutely capable of going down the field. But if this is going to be a low-storing type of game,

Starting point is 00:09:24 where it's going to be hard to move the ball, the advantage is with the team that wins the field position battle. So the three keys for Florida State to pull off an upset at home and beat the Miami Hurricanes. Number one, efficient passing game, make Miami respect their ability to throw the football. Number two, start fast. And number three, win the field position battle.

Starting point is 00:09:53 If you're a Florida state fan, what are your keys to beating Miami this weekend? Comment your thoughts in the comments section below. And if you're a Miami fan, tell me why I'm delusional. Tell me why Florida State has zero chance of winning this game. Comment in the comment section below. Now coming up, Miami's path to victory.

Starting point is 00:10:19 Stick with me here on Locked on ACC. This episode is brought to you by Mazda's moving the game forward. For those who believe it's not just about playing the game, it's about redefining it. There are moments that do more than put points on the board. They move crowds, move culture. and keep moving the game forward. And hey, this week's moving the game forward. I mean, how about what Duke did to Syracuse?

Starting point is 00:10:47 As the host of Locked on Syracuse, I was not particularly happy. I mean, Darien Mensa was terrific through for nearly 270 yards and two touchdowns in that dominant victory. When you follow what moves you, the unexpected is only the beginning. And just like there's more to every highlight, there's more to a Mazda vehicle.

Starting point is 00:11:06 Mazda move and be moved. It's almost the weekend. Time to look back and crown this week's MVP on who delivered. Powered by DoorDash, just like you can win every Saturday with DoorDash Streaks, saving more every time you order these players delivered when it mattered most. And let's break it all down. And for the ACC, there's a lot of choices every single week. But I'm going to again go back to that Duke Syracuse matchup because Duke's running back at a breakout performance.

Starting point is 00:11:35 And I am talking about a young guy by the name of. Nate Shepard. 15 carries 168 yards. That's over 11 yards per carry and two touchdowns. He was just gashing the Syracuse defense all afternoon. And just like Nate Shepard delivered for the Duke Blue Devils, DoorDash delivers your Saturdays with DoorDash streaks. You save every Saturday you order. Stack it up all season and you could save up to $250, including $100 in DoorDash credits. Order this Saturday. Keep the streak alive. Fuel your game day only with DoorDash. Terms apply promo period through November 18th. Locked on ACC, Jackson Holeser, the host of Locked on Syracuse, once again, hosting a Friday solo show for the foreseeable future here on Lockedon ACC.

Starting point is 00:12:28 Now, earlier, we gave out our three keys for Florida State to upset Miami. Now, let's talk about how Miami can hold serve as the favorite and beat the Florida. state seminals. Miami comes into this game. They are ranked third in the nation for a reason. They look phenomenal. And really what I've been impressed by with Miami is the fact that they've won in a variety of different ways. They got a couple of blowouts against USF and Bethune Cookman, but also a hard fought gritty victory against the Florida Gators where they were not perfect in that game against Florida. But they found a way to win, relying on their running game. And of course, that outstanding and improve the defense that they have. And of course, in week one, just an

Starting point is 00:13:19 absolute thriller against Notre Dame. So Miami, they're battle tested. They're hungry. And they look like a team that is poised to be playing in Charlotte by the end of the regular season, a team that looks like will be in the 2025 college football playoff, but not so fast. This will not be an easy game in Tallahassee against Florida State. Here's what they need to do to pull off the win. Number one, the most common three words you will hear from every football fan. Run the ball. That's right. That is exactly what Miami needs to do against Florida State. It's not that complicated, run the ball right down their throat, make Florida State stop it. Florida State last week allowed over 200 rushing yards to Virginia.

Starting point is 00:14:18 No disrespect to Virginia, but we know, or at least we think, that Miami is much better than Virginia. They got an elite offensive line. It might be the best offensive line in the entire nation. Fletcher and Brown are two very, very good, very strong. running backs for Miami. And how many times do we see teams in football games, regardless of the level, they fall behind early and they abandon the run?

Starting point is 00:14:49 I'll give you an example right now as a Syracuse fan. Clemson did that very thing against Syracuse, where they abandoned a rushing attack with Adam Randall that was working against Syracuse, even though they really had no business of doing that. Syracuse had not shown throughout the game they could stop the run. But you know what? Clemson decided let's throw the football 60 times with Kay Clubnick. And the reason why I bring that up is because even if Miami does get off to a slow start,

Starting point is 00:15:15 even if Miami trails for the first time all season, let's say they're down to have nothing in the first quarter. There is no reason to stop running the football. Don't abandon it until Florida State has proven that they can actually stop it. So that is key number one for Miami. very basic, very simple, but very effective. Run the ball. Number two, and this is very specific to this game against Florida State, because Florida State has a very unique quarterback in Thomas Castellanos.

Starting point is 00:15:51 Outside contain. That is key number two for Miami. They need their edge guys to be on their A game in this one. They cannot let Thomas Castiano get outside and use his legs because that's what he wants to do. Thomas Costiano is at his best when he is on the move. If you are Miami, you want to contain him. You know he's going to make plays, but limit them as much as possible. Force him to have to go through the middle.

Starting point is 00:16:28 Force Florida State to have to call design runs. for Thomas Castionos, which they will do. And he's going, again, he's going to make plays. That is already built in. But your edge guys have to be on their best behavior. They have to be on their A game. They have to make sure that priority number one is to keep Thomas Costiano's in the pocket. And then once he's in the pocket, you know he can also estate through the middle.

Starting point is 00:16:59 Linebackers, they got to fill in the gaps and make sure that, they can make those tackles. If they can force Thomas Tostiano's to be a pocket passer, I have a hard time believing that Florida State is really going to be able to move the football. And by the way, that's pretty much what Miami did against DJ Lagway of Florida. And Thomas Tostianos is definitely better than DJ Lagway. I'll give, I'll certainly give him that.

Starting point is 00:17:26 But they're sort of similar. I mean, DJ Lagway's got incredible athleticism. He can certainly run. but how many times did he really get outside against Miami? They suffocated him. They forced him to stay in the middle of that pocket and face that pressure. That's what Miami essentially has to do in this one against Thomas Tostiano's, but it's a lot tougher against Thomas Tostianos and what Florida State can do

Starting point is 00:17:51 versus Billy Napier and the Florida Gators. But that's D number two. And number three for the Miami Hurricanes. It kind of goes hand in hand with running the football, but they got to limit the pre-snap penalties as much as possible. They really, really do. It's going to be a tough environment, hostile environment in Tallahassee. I imagine that crowd is going to be loud.

Starting point is 00:18:16 It is going to be hard to communicate. But you know what? Who cares? It doesn't matter about the environment. They have to limit those pre-snap penalties. because if Miami is in a situation where they're in a short down and distance, let's say it's second and one, third and two, second and three, those are great running downs.

Starting point is 00:18:39 We know that. Those are great running downs. And you can pretty much do whatever you want in those down and distances. And Miami's strength is to run the football. However, if they start committing pre-snap penalties, they start getting behind the sticks, all of a sudden a second in three becomes a second. second and eight, a third and one becomes a third and six, those could be killers for Miami. Because all of a sudden, the whole world knows at that point that they're going to have to

Starting point is 00:19:08 throw in those situations. And if you're Miami, what would you prefer? It's like what I asked with Florida State in the very top of the show, very first segment. Would you rather, would you rather as a Miami fan run the football right down Florida State's throat or have Carson Beck throw the ball 40 times? They can maybe win the game with Carson Beck throwing the ball 40 times, but I know for sure if they're able to gash Florida State with their running ability, Florida State's not going to have much of a chance in this one. So with that being said, the three keys for Miami to hold serve and beat Florida State on the road.

Starting point is 00:19:48 Number one, you got to run the ball. That's easy. Number two, outside contain on Thomas Tastiano's. And number three, limit the pre-snap penalties. Miami fans, what are your keys for your team beating Florida State? Comment in the comments section below and Florida State fans. Tell me why I'm nuts. Tell me why I'm stupid.

Starting point is 00:20:09 Tell me, hey, Jackson, this is what you're missing. Florida State is going to do XYZ and Miami's got no chance. Comment in the comment section below. Now for everyone's favorite part, predictions. Prediction, let's go over it. I'd be very surprised if this game turned into. to a shootout. I would be shocked if either team touches 30 points. Actually, I shouldn't say shocked.

Starting point is 00:20:33 If both teams reach 30 points, I'd be very, very surprised. Do I pick an upset? Do I do it? I'm not usually known to pick upsets. But you know what? I had a friend of mine say to me yesterday that Florida State doesn't have a chance to win this game. Just point blank, unprompted.

Starting point is 00:20:55 I wasn't really even talking about the game with him. He just was like, Florida State doesn't have a chance to win. And I said, really? You don't think Florida State has a chance? You're not giving them at least a punch or shot to win? So because my friend said that, I'm going to pick Florida State in an upset here. Yeah, I'm an idiot.

Starting point is 00:21:15 I know. But I'm going to pick Florida State to upset Miami. I'm going to go with 2420. Now, here's where you get to roast me in the comments section below. So feel free to do it. Comment your thoughts in the comments section below. Tell me why I'm an idiot. Tell me why I should be picking the Miami Hurricanes to win this game.

Starting point is 00:21:33 Comment in the comment section below. Now, that's enough for Miami, Florida State, three keys for each team to pull off a win. Coming up, we'll talk about the rest of the ACC slate here on Locked-on ACC. Peloton is shaping the future of fitness with the brand new Peloton Cross Training Tread Plus. Powered by Peloton IQ. it's their most advanced equipment yet designed to give you real-time guidance and endless ways to move, whether you're running, lifting, or cross-training with your favorite instructors. This is Training Reimagined Peloton is built for breakthroughs with tools that help you plan,

Starting point is 00:22:13 stay motivated, and reach peak performance, and the personalized class recommendations, keep you engaged, you get workouts tailored to your vibe and energy level each week. So let yourself run, lift, flex, and push forward, explore the new Peloton cross-training thread, Plus or tread plus today at one peloton.com. Plenty of more intriguing matchups here in the ACC this week. Let's go over them now here on Locked-on ACC. Let's start with Louisville hosting number 24 Virginia at 3.30 p.m. Eastern. I don't know about you all, but this to me feels like an ACC elimination game.

Starting point is 00:22:57 What do I mean by that? both teams are technically undefeated right now in conference play. I say technically because Virginia actually does have a conference loss to NC State, but that does not count towards ACC play. That game counted towards conference play or non-conference play. So shout out to Virginia for losing that one and not the game against Florida State. That being said, I have a hard time believing that even though these teams have been very good, that if whoever loses is going to turn around for the rest of their season and just

Starting point is 00:23:38 win out to the ACC title game. That's why I'm calling this one an ACC elimination game. So as far as who I'm picking, I think Louisville proved last week that they can win even when their running backs get shut down, which I didn't know if they could do prior to this season. I was a little, you know, I like Miller Moss, but not in love with Miller Moss. I do think that Miller Moss is starting to find his stride. He had a good game against Pip. He's getting more comfortable.

Starting point is 00:24:08 And with Virginia, look, great win against Florida State. We'd love to see if they can back it up with another impressive win against Louisville on the road. But for now, I'm going to take Louisville to beat Virginia. Now, another one, Cal hosting Duke at 10.30 p.m. Eastern. That's right, a West Coast game for you all. Okay. Duke should win this game. Can we all acknowledge that Duke should theoretically win this one?

Starting point is 00:24:42 Everything clicked for Duke last week. Everything. They absolutely throttled my beloved Syracuse Orange. They throttled them. Dary Mentsa looked great. The defense really stepped up. Nate Shepard, emerging running back for the Duke. Blue Devils. But why do I feel like this is a trap game maybe for Duke?

Starting point is 00:25:03 Why do I feel like this is a trap? Comment your thoughts in the comment section below. Do you think it was a trap game for the Duke Blue Devils coming off an impressive victory against Syracuse on the road, now having to go to Cal. A lot of people I think are sleeping on Cal this year. Cal has the fifth ranked past defense in the ACC and then got the third rank rush defense in the ACC. So spoiler alert, they're a lot better on defense than Syracuse. We'll get to Syracuse in just a moment here, but they're a lot better than Syracuse on defense. How is at home? Duke is having to fly out west to play a night game. I think I'm going to go with Cal. I'm picking Cal in an upset over Duke. Am I crazy? Probably am I wrong? Definitely comment your thoughts in the comments section below. Another intriguing game, got to bring it up. SMU, they're hosting Syracuse at 3.30 p.m. Eastern. And I've already given my prediction for this one unlocked on Syracuse so you can check it out. But to summarize it for you all here, Syracuse's defense, they're not very good.

Starting point is 00:26:10 They don't do a good job stopping the run and they don't do a good job stopping the pass. Well, spoiler alert, there's only real two aspects of defense there. You can either stop the run or you can stop the pass. If you can't do neither, then you probably don't have a very good defense. defense plus they have a backup quarterback and Ricky Collins who did not have the best debut last week's made his first career collegiate start. And I have a hard time believing that they're going to go on the road and they're going to beat SMU.

Starting point is 00:26:40 So I'm picking SMU to win this one 3524, but as a Syracuse fan, Syracuse alum and the host of Lockdown Syracuse, I really hope to be wrong. All right. Other matchups, I think Pitt is going to bounce back at home. against Boston College, Clemson, don't you dare lose to North Carolina. I mean, if Clemson loses to North Carolina, imagine the laughter that we are all going to have here. It is going to be a field day dunking on Clemson's grave, at least for this season. Who knows what's going to happen in 2026 with the Clemson Tigers,

Starting point is 00:27:15 but if they lose to North Carolina and that crappy team they got over there in Chapel Hill, I guess that means that Clemson is even worse. And that Clemson, I'm not going to actually bring it up. That's not fair to Florida State because they're better this year, Florida State. That's not, you mean, you know what I'm getting at. Virginia Tech and Wake Forest. Is Virginia Tech suddenly a lot better now? Are they?

Starting point is 00:27:39 They just beat NC State. That's a nice win for them. No, I'm going to go Wake Forest. I'm picking Wake Forest in that one. And another game we got here, NC State and K. Campbell, does NC State win by 30? Do they win by 40 or do they win by 50 points? Comment in the comment section below. I believe that is every game of the ACC Slate this week. If I happen to miss a game, I apologize.

Starting point is 00:28:06 Comment your thoughts in the comment section below. Who do you have winning each game here on this slate in the comment section below? Thank you all so much for watching. Thank you all so much for listening. If you like Locked on ACC, be sure to hit that like button. And if you really enjoy Locked on ACC, be sure to hit subscribe. Tell all your friends about this podcast so it can reach everyone in the ACC. And of course, final reminder, Jackson Hulzer, Locked on Syracuse, I will be hosting a solo show here on Locked on ACC every single Friday. Thank you all so much for watching. Thank you all so much for listening. And I will see you all again next week. Thank you.

Locked On ACC - Daily College Football & Basketball Podcast - UPSET: Florida State Aims to DERAIL Miami's Perfect Season | Who Will EMERGE Victorious?

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