Locked On ACC - Daily College Football & Basketball Podcast - WARNING: ACC NEEDS Duke to Beat Virginia in ACC Championship | Will the Cavaliers PREVAIL?

Starting point is 00:00:00 Ladies and gentlemen, we have made it. Virginia versus Duke for a shot at the ACC title. Who do you got? Let's break it down. You are locked on ACC, your daily podcast on the Atlantic Coast Conference. Part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. Hello, everyone, and welcome in a locked on ACC. I'm Jackson Holeser, the host of Locked on Syracuse. and thank you for making Locked-on, ACC, your first listen of every single day here on the Locked-on podcast network. It's your team every day. And of course, we are always free and available wherever you get your podcast. And on today's show, ACC basketball. Are we back?

Starting point is 00:00:51 I know that Wednesday wasn't exactly a banner day for the ACC, but guess what? The conference looks a whole lot better this time around than it was last year. So we'll break it all day. later on in this show, plus college football playoff scenarios and why this weekend could be the ultimate doomsday scenario for the ACC. But first and foremost, let's break down the ACC championship between Virginia and Duke. All that and more coming up here on today's edition of Locked-on ACC. And before we get to everything, this episode is brought to you by Fanduel. If you want to be right in the middle of the action this season,

Starting point is 00:01:34 visit vandal.com and place your live NFL. That's all season long. Well, Virginia versus Duke, that is exactly what I thought was going to happen in the preseason, ladies and gentlemen. I mean, I said this on the squad yesterday. Go back and rewind the tape. When we were going through all the season previews,

Starting point is 00:01:54 all the prognostications about ACC football, who's going to meet in the conference championship, very clearly said it, was going to be Duke in Virginia. Obviously, I'm kidding, ladies and gentlemen. I don't think many of us really anticipated that this would be the matchup. But nevertheless, we are here. Virginia, number 17 in the country versus Duke.

Starting point is 00:02:15 Fandu currently has Virginia as four and a half point favorites. Last time I checked, which I find curious because these two teams, they played on November 15th, and it was in Duke's building. And Virginia, one by a lot, lot of points. I know the final store says it might have been somewhat competitive, but it was not really competitive. Duke got a couple of garbage time touchdowns late in that game. Virginia kind of stumped right all over Duke. And I thought at the time, and many of us thought at the time, that that was going to be the end for the Duke Blue Devils this season. But not so fast.

Starting point is 00:02:54 Let's go through the matchup. And let's start with Virginia here, a 10 and 2 regular season. 7 and 1 in ACC play. Really 7 and 2 because their game against NC State happened, but it didn't happen. You know what? It didn't count as a conference game. So not Virginia's problem, not NC State's problem. It might be the ACC's problem.

Starting point is 00:03:16 But neither here nor there. Didn't count. 7 and 1 in ACC playing games that actually counted. Virginia, they win games kind of the old-fashioned way. They're not going to wow you with their passing attack by any stretch of the imagination. But what does Virginia do really well? Well, for starters, they can run the football at a pretty high level.

Starting point is 00:03:39 Third in the ACC this season in rushing yards per game, top five in the conference in rushing yards per carry. And Virginia, this is why I call them kind of old school, they play excellent defense, top three in the ACC in total defense, top five in rushing defense, the sixth rated passing defense in the conference. So there's really no real weakness with Virginia's defense at all. But here is the big key about Virginia on defense. This is the stat that I want you to pay attention to.

Starting point is 00:04:10 Virginia is third in the nation an opponent third down percentage. What does that mean? It means when their defense is on the field for third down, guess what? They're getting off the field much more often than not relative to other teams in college football. So that's good for Virginia. This is a team that can run the ball and play excellent defense. You go over the Duke Blue Devils, and they are essentially the opposite of Virginia. In pretty much any way.

Starting point is 00:04:46 We can start with the overall record. I mean, Virginia has a 10-2 record. That is a very strong record for a regular season. Duke is 7 and 5. There's 6 and 2 in the conference. seven and five overall. It's not Duke's fault. Duke did what they did this season,

Starting point is 00:05:04 and it was deemed worthy of playing in the ACC championship based on all the tiebreakers that the ACC has. Again, not Duke's problem, and since they're already here, they might as well spoil the party and spoil the ACC by going out and giving their best effort and trying to win this game. We know that the Duke Blue Devils can store points

Starting point is 00:05:25 In six of their eight conference teams this season, Duke scored 30 or more points. And their quarterback, Darien Mensa, he was paid a lot of money in the offseason. And I would say it has worked out quite well for Duke, second team all ACC named recently. But here's the problem with Duke. And it's a very general problem. So that defense, where is it? Where is the Duke defense? In five of their ACC games this season, they allowed 30 or more points. They also allowed 45 to Illinois, 34 to 2 lane, and 37 to Yukon. So in eight of their 12 games they played in this season, the Duke Blue Devils allowed 30 or more points.

Starting point is 00:06:14 The only reason why Duke's defense doesn't rank worse than what it actually is, is they were one of the many beneficiaries this season in the conference that got to play Syracuse football with Ricky Collins. Don't worry. They did face Ricky Collins. They didn't face the walk-on true freshman lacrosse player. That's another story for another day. But I digress. This is not the locked on Syracuse podcast.

Starting point is 00:06:39 This is the locked on ACC podcast. So who wins this game? Well, I said it pretty clearly on ACC squad yesterday, where I already revealed my prediction. I'm going with Virginia in this game 35.30. I think it will be closer than the game we witnessed on November 15th. I do think that Duke's offense is going to show up in this game. I just don't have a lot of faith in their defense.

Starting point is 00:07:06 I don't know if they can really stop anyone. And Virginia has proven that they can win high-scoring games. I go back to the NC State Georgia Tech game earlier this season, the ACC, and Grayson Boone and Kenton Gibbs, the host of Lockdown Wolfpack. they outlined the upset plan perfectly, which is try to get into a shootout with Georgia Tech, try to outscore them to the point where they simply can't match up. Right.

Starting point is 00:07:34 You win a very high scoring game. Virginia can do that against Duke. They did that against Florida State earlier this season, back when Florida State was a ranked team who we thought could make some noise in the conference, could reach a conference title, could go to the college football playoff, potentially. They had beaten Alabama. I think they were still unbeaten at the time as well. And Virginia won by scoring a lot of points. So if this game were to get into a shootout,

Starting point is 00:08:05 I have faith that Virginia can still put up points and win, especially because Duke's defense simply isn't very good. Comment your thoughts in the comments section below. Who do you have winning this game? Virginia or Duke? Comment in the comment section below. Now coming up, college football playoff scenarios, there is a very realistic chance. the ACC gets nobody in the college football playoff. We'll discuss all that and more next on Locked-on ACC. NFL Sundays move fast. One big play and suddenly everything feels different.

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Starting point is 00:09:39 Now the number one, sports podcasting network. I love the ACC. I'm rooting for the ACC. I'm the host of Locked-on Syracuse, after all. But we all have to admit this. The ACC is in trouble this weekend. very big trouble. We're going to break down all the possible college football

Starting point is 00:10:00 playoffs scenarios. That's the main takeaway of this segment, though. The ACC is in trouble. They are one game away from being what I would consider no longer a power conference. They would officially become a group of six conference. That's what's on the line with this ACC championship game. Here's why.

Starting point is 00:10:23 Let's get to it in any grade. For those that don't know, in the current format of the college football playoff, there are five automatic bids that are given out. They are given out to the five highest rated conference champions. Now, when the rule was written, most assumed that it would include all the power conferences. It would include the SEC, the Big 10, the Big 12, and the ACC, and the final conference. champion would be the highest rated group of five winner. But notice what the actual rule is.

Starting point is 00:11:03 It's the five highest rated conference champions. It's not the power four conference champions plus one. And so that's why the winner of this day between Virginia and Duke, which is tomorrow Saturday night at 8 p.m. Eastern, it's why there is no guarantee that the winner is getting into the college football playoff. Well, for one team, not the other. So let's break down the college football playoff scenarios here.

Starting point is 00:11:31 Virginia, it's very easy. It's very cut and dry. If Virginia wins the ACC championship and they are four and a half point favors to do so at the time of this recording, Virginia will be in the college football playoff by virtue of being one of the five highest rated conference champions. So in that case, the ACC is not completely screwed. Yeah, Virginia is probably going to get their doors blown off in the ACC or in the college football playoff. But at least the ACC would have a team in the college football playoff.

Starting point is 00:12:03 You'd rather have a team in the college football playoff than not, at least have some sort of conference legitimacy. So Virginia, very easy. Just beat Duke and they're in and the ACC is happy. It's also kind of why I think the ACC refs and the officials over at the higher reps at the ACC, They may have something to say about this game. Let's go to Duke. Well, first and foremost, they have to win.

Starting point is 00:12:27 If Duke doesn't win, then we're not having a conversation about Duke in the college football playoff. They have to win. And even if they do win, they need a boatload of help. And even if they get the boatload of help, there's no guarantee that they are in the college football playoff anyway. You're essentially leaving it up to chance. There's only possibilities of how Duke can get in.

Starting point is 00:12:52 There's really no concrete way for how Duke can get into the college football playoff. So let's get to it. How Duke can make the college football playoff, because it is theoretically possible. The following three teams are all rated ahead of Duke in the latest college football playoff standings. You got Tulane at 20, North Texas at 24, and JMU at 25.

Starting point is 00:13:17 Tulane is going to play North Texas in the American Championship at 8 p.m. Eastern, that is tonight. The winner is going to get in the college football playoff. Okay. Cut and dry. The winner of the American is going to the college football playoff. That means there is one more spot up for grabs. One more automatic bid, I should say, up for grabs. JMU is in the Sunbelt Conference.

Starting point is 00:13:44 They're in their conference championship game. they are playing Troy. That's tonight at 7 p.m. Eastern. If JMU beats Troy, they are also in the college football playoff, and that would mean the Duke Blue Devils are out even with a win. But if JMU loses and Troy wins, Troy would be a 9-and-4 Sun Belt Conference champion. Duke may have a stronger case than Troy to be in the college. football playoff. Again, they may have a stronger case. We won't know for sure. That's why I said at

Starting point is 00:14:22 the very top, there's no concrete way for Duke to get in. There's only possibilities of how Duke can get in. Here's the kicker, though, with this matchup between JMU and Troy. JMU is supposed to dominate this game. They're 23 and a half point favorites on Fandole last time I checked. So Troy is going to have to pull off a major upset. Otherwise, Duke has no chance of getting in the college football playoff. Even if Troy does pull off a major upset, there's another conference that Duke needs to have its eye on. And that is the Mountain West.

Starting point is 00:14:59 That is also tonight at 8 p.m. Eastern. Their conference championship is between 10 and 2, UNLV, and 8 and 4 Boise State. Boise State, you would think, being an 8 and 4 team, they would have to win the conference championship in order for Duke to potentially have a stronger case at the college football playoff because if UNLV wins, UNLV would be 11 and 2, UNLV would probably get in over the Duke Blue Devils as a conference champion.

Starting point is 00:15:30 The good news, Boise State, is favored by five and a half points. So let me simplify it for you all, ladies and gentlemen. them. If Virginia wins, if they're in the college football playoff, the ACC will have a representative for the college football playoff. Duke, if they were to win, there is no concrete way, there is no guarantee that they would be in anyway, because they would need the following factors, which still would not guarantee them in the college football playoff. They would need Troy to pull off a major upset against JMU. and they would also likely need Boise State to beat UNLV. And even if those things happen, the committee might take Troy.

Starting point is 00:16:20 The committee might take Boise State over conference champion Duke. So bottom line, Virginia has to win. Otherwise, there is a very realistic possibility. The ACC will have no teams in the college football playoff. But wait, there's more. separate from this matchup. Let's talk about Miami, ladies and gentlemen. Oh, Miami fans, ooh, I'm sorry.

Starting point is 00:16:49 I'm sorry that Miami got screwed. And as I kept saying on ACC squad yesterday, two things can be true. Miami should be ahead of Notre Dame. They played head to head. Miami won. Miami is a better team, or at least was the better team between those two.

Starting point is 00:17:10 And unlike the committee saying, well, it's just one data point head to head. That should matter. That's a pretty big data point committee. Miami should absolutely be ahead of Notre Dame, but you're on the bubble. And when you're on the bubble, you put yourself in position to get screwed. And Miami, yeah, they are getting screwed, but they are on the bubble. And that is their problem for being on the bubble. They could have just beaten Louisville.

Starting point is 00:17:40 They could have just beaten SMU. And if they had done that, they would be in the conference championship right now. And there would be no worry about the college football playoff. They would just be competing maybe for a first round by. That's what it would maybe be. Instead, they're here. Is there any way that Miami can get in anyway? Well, first and foremost, you've got one team that is sandwiched between Notre Dame and Miami,

Starting point is 00:18:05 and that is BYU at 11. If BYU were to upset Texas Tech in the Big 12 title, guess what, folks, Notre Dame would also not be in the college football playoff. BYU would get it. So everyone's out of luck. BYU first and foremost, they need to lose in order for Miami to have a chance at getting in the playoff. Secondly, Notre Dame and BYU are already rated higher than Miami.

Starting point is 00:18:37 Is there any way the committee would do a shake-up where they would have it so Notre Dame and Miami are directly next to each other, in which case they probably would really have to weigh the head-to-head more, and Miami might leap frog Notre Dame. I think the answer is no. I think the precedent was sent last year, which is the conference championship games can only help you. They can't hurt you.

Starting point is 00:19:13 And we were talking about this last year, with SMU on this very show locked on ACC. And I kept on saying, and I was banging the table for the ACC then, saying, I don't care what happens in the ACC title. There should be no conversation between SMU and Alabama. If SMU wins their, if SMU loses the conference championship, I don't care how much they lose it by. They should still get in over Alabama for the college football playoff.

Starting point is 00:19:39 And the reason is very simple. You had them in the college football playoff before the conference title. teams should not be penalized for being forced to play another game while the other team in Bama was sitting on their couch watching the conference championship games. We're rewarding teams for sitting on the couch not playing? No, no, no, no, no. That's not how this works. So in the case of BYU, why should they drop from 11 if they lose?

Starting point is 00:20:07 They shouldn't. BYU should not drop from 11. The precedent was sent last year. they should be stand pat at 11. If they win, yes, it helps them. They go to the college football playoff. If they lose, they're out. Simple as that.

Starting point is 00:20:23 And Notre Dame would be the last team in. So Notre Dame and Miami are already locked up. Notre Dame is already deemed to be better than Miami. So I don't really think Miami has much of a chance. And I'm sorry for Miami, especially their fans. I'm sorry. It's not your fault. Miami fans I'm speaking to. It's not Miami fans fault.

Starting point is 00:20:45 You can blame the committee all you want. Kenton Gibbs can shout it's a committee problem all he wants. Nope. Don't be on the bubble. And yeah, if Syracuse were in this position, yes, I would be saying the very same thing. Syracuse basketball may be on the bubble in March. It could happen. And you know what I will say? If they get in great, if not, that's their problem. Maybe you should have beaten Houston in overtime when you were in Vegas. Don't be on the bubble. That is the key to making the playoff in college sports. So in conclusion, Virginia needs to win the conference championship. It's that simple.

Starting point is 00:21:24 If Virginia wins the conference championship, great. We have a college football playoff representative. I guess we can still consider ourselves a powerful conference. But if Duke wins, no teams in the college football playoff. And what would that mean for the future of the ACC as far as football is concerned? It wouldn't be good. because I think the conference would lose all legitimacy in football. Now, basketball, on the other hand, that's on an upward path.

Starting point is 00:21:55 So let's talk about that next here on Locked-on ACC. The holidays are officially here, which means gift hunting season is on. And if you want something meaningful, personal or guaranteed to get a reaction, ORA frames is the gift that delivers every time. It's not just about something you wrap. It's a way to share memories because ORA isn't your average picture. frame. You can preload the frame with photos before gifting it. So when they plug it in,

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Starting point is 00:23:13 day for ACC basketball. They lost, I believe, six of seven matchups in the ACC SEC Challenge. but the conference in general is a lot better. The ACC didn't went under 500 again against the ACC, or against the SEC, I should say. But you know what? Last year, they went 2 and 14. So a lot better. Latest ESPN Bracketology.

Starting point is 00:23:41 Keep in mind, this was from December 2nd. It had seven teams from the ACC in the field. You had Duke out of one seed, Louisville at a three seed, North Carolina at a five seed, Clemson as an eight, NC State as a nine, that's probably going to change. SMU at a nine and Virginia at a 10, that's definitely going to change for the positive. In addition, Miami was the second team out in the latest bracketology. Now, based on some of those results that happened in the ACC, SEC, SEC challenge, I'd imagine that by the next bracketology, some things are going to shuffle around a little bit.

Starting point is 00:24:18 But regardless, this looks like a good year of ACC basketball. And it's because of how the ACC performed out of conference this time around compared to 2024, 2025. Why does this matter? Why is it important that the ACC performed pretty well outside of the conference? It establishes legitimacy within its own conference. Last year, if you were in the ACC trying to make the NCAA tournament, you couldn't really get any signature wins within the conference.

Starting point is 00:25:01 You had maybe a few opportunities. Duke, Clemson, Louisville, and maybe North Carolina. If you played any other team in the ACC, it really did not matter. it could only hurt you because the conference performed horribly in non-con play. This time around, they are a lot better, meaning there are opportunities for a lot more teams to get in. Because now teams, they don't just have to play Duke or have to play Louisville or have to play Carolina this year in order to get a signature win. no, there's plenty of teams rated right now in the top 75 in the net,

Starting point is 00:25:49 plenty of teams top 50, Ken Palm, you know, latest bracketology, I just mentioned to you seven ACC teams with another one, second team out in Miami, which I think will definitely change. Miami looks really good this year with Jay Lucas as their new head coach, seems like they got their path or got their program going once again in the right direction. So while the football side of the conference, is just in the gutter trying to figure out what to do, basketball has seemingly gotten back on track.

Starting point is 00:26:25 Maybe that gives us hope that since basketball can do this turnaround in one year, next year, ACC football could potentially be a lot better. Comment your thoughts right now. In the comments section below, your thoughts on ACC basketball this season. In future episodes here are locked on ACC on Fridays, We're going to have a lot more bastardball conversations now that football season is pretty much over for the ACC. Speaking of which, the next episode here on Locked-on ACC will be with your normal host, Alex Dono and Kenton Gibbs. And I will be back next Friday to talk all things ACC.

Starting point is 00:27:03 Folks, thank you all so much for watching. Thank you all so much for listening. If you like this podcast, be sure to hit the like button. If you really enjoy the podcast, be sure to hit subscribe. tell all your friends about locked on acc and i will see you all again next friday

Locked On ACC - Daily College Football & Basketball Podcast - WARNING: ACC NEEDS Duke to Beat Virginia in ACC Championship | Will the Cavaliers PREVAIL?

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