Locked On Bengals - Daily Podcast On The Cincinnati Bengals - Can the Cincinnati Bengals make changes coming out of their bye week to run the table and keep their playoff aspirations alive?

Starting point is 00:00:00 Are there changes the Cincinnati Bengals could make coming out of their by week to bolster their slim playoff chances? Let's break it down. You are Locked on Bengals, your daily Cincinnati Bengals podcast. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. What up Bengals fans and welcome to another episode of the Locked on Bengals podcast. I'm your host, Jake Liscoe. Returning today is James Rupin as the Bengals come out of the by week, your host of the Lockdown Bengals. podcast back together to get you ready for another NFL game.

Starting point is 00:00:40 The Bengals have to play again this weekend, and it's a division game. Pittsburgh Steelers. We will get to that a little bit later in the week. I mean, it's a big game. We'll talk about it. It's already one of the most important games for them the rest of the way, and they're all important, but you can't lose this one. You can't start it with the loss.

Starting point is 00:01:00 Anyway, we'll get into that when we talk about the Bengals remaining path to the playoffs a little bit later in this show. We're going to start with the changes we think the Bengals should make coming out of the bye week. Are there changes they even could make? Welcome back to the everydayers. Shout out to all of you who make us your first listen. Appreciate all of you who make us part of your regular routine. Today's episode is sponsored by Fandul where you can get $150 in bonus bets when you win your first $5 bet.

Starting point is 00:01:27 Check it out at fandul.com to get started. We're, of course, on YouTube and everywhere you get your podcast. So if you are new to the show, you can see. subscribe and then you won't miss any locked on bengals episodes as we covered the rest of the bengal season and what has been a disappointing one so far and then we'll get to offseason topics we just spent a whole lot of time if you just came back after the by week talking about the things that the bengals could change what's going wrong on offense what's going wrong on defense trying to figure out where the blame should go all those fun things a couple good episodes

Starting point is 00:02:00 with Mike Santagana, a regular guest on this show. But James, we are going to discuss today what the Bengals can do coming out of their biweek to bolster those, like I said, slim playoff chances. If you believe the New York Times playoff odds calculated right now, they're 11% to make the playoffs. And again, we'll get into that much more in a few minutes here. But what do you think the Bengals should be doing to get out of this biweek and write the ship? Yeah, it's tough because a couple of things. And the first one is the most simple thing.

Starting point is 00:02:37 And hopefully the buy was able to help reset some of these veterans. And it really is simple. And we're going to get into actual things that they could change from a personnel standpoint. I have a couple of ideas. But their veterans just need to be better. like Sheldon Rankins you paid him a lot of money and he was supposed to give you some pass rush

Starting point is 00:03:03 and he hasn't Geno Stone has one interception and two pass breakups he had seven picks and nine passes defense last year Alex Kappa is moving like he's 80 like all of these things

Starting point is 00:03:17 Cordell Wilson and I it stinks because you're being I'm being critical of guys I like all four of them but they're playing poorly Cordell Wilson steps on someone every single week. And I don't need them to be elite run blockers, but they better be able to protect Joe.

Starting point is 00:03:34 And they haven't been able to do that. And last I checked, KM Hayward exists. Jeffrey Simmons exists. There's some elite defensive tackles on that schedule. So there are a lot of things there where can the veterans just play a little bit better? Like I think Gino Stone and Sheldon Rankin's like hopefully Kappa and Volson, maybe not, right?

Starting point is 00:03:54 I think that there's, but even if you got. half of the guys that have underperformed, and there are a lot of guys that have underperformed on this roster, to just play a little bit better down the stretch. I think it would go a long way. And at the same time, defensively, I do wonder about 21

Starting point is 00:04:10 in finding a way to get Mike Hilton on the field for some of these third downs. If Gino, especially if Gino Stone continues to struggle, if they continue to give up big plays, if he continues to take poor angles, at least I know Mike Hilton can tackle. At least I know Mike Hilton is going to put himself in position to make a play. And so balancing that, especially with the injuries and the secondary,

Starting point is 00:04:33 is something that I look for them to do this stretch over the next six weeks. Yeah, let's just stay on the topic of the defense here because I think that that is where rightly a lot of the focus is. This has been a very inconsistent unit. The offense at least is near the top of the league in most categories, right? Well, not rushing, obviously. But in terms of output, overall output, scoring, efficiency, those things, the passing offense is really good. is a reason the Bengals have won the games they've won, given against bad teams, and have been right there in games against good teams. And they haven't been able to finish these games.

Starting point is 00:05:06 Obviously, there's a lot that's been said about clutch moments this year, but there's a reason we're focusing on the defense. And trying to figure out the personnel combinations is a weekly issue at this point. And injuries they've had certainly don't help, especially at Corner, where Daxville and DJ Turner would probably be your starters this week if they were healthy. and they're not healthy. So you're going to get Josh Newton and Camp Taylor-Briton. That is not a change that I think the Bengals want to make,

Starting point is 00:05:32 but because of injuries, that is the direction the Bengals will have to go coming out of the bi-week. They add Marco Wilson there. He will be depth. We haven't talked about that edition yet, a waiver claim. We'll get to that at some point. I don't think that's a huge topic for something that will bolster their playoff chances in the starting lineup perspective of things, at least right away. But you're talking about getting more out of the players.

Starting point is 00:05:57 that the Bengals have. And there's one obvious one that is a snap count management topic, which is getting Sam Hubbard off the field more, getting Joseph Osai and Miles Murphy on the field. Sorry, Sam Hubbard less, Murphy and Osai on the field more. Did I say Hubbard on the field more? Met off the field more. Regardless, getting...

Starting point is 00:06:20 You're a big Sam Hubbard guy. You're a big Sam Hubbard guy. Getting the youth there in the edge rotation. Yeah, big Sam Hubbard guy noted. big Sam Hover guy, Jake Lisco. And there are other reasons to get Miles Murphy on the field more obviously, development-related reasons and those sorts of things. But that's one that's very obvious.

Starting point is 00:06:40 Another is, like, are there things they can do to put Sheldon-Rankans in a better position to have more success? Outside of just asking him to play better, which, yes, is there anything they can do to help him play better? Is there anything they can do to get more out of Chris Jenkins McKinley Jackson in that defensive tackle rotation? I don't know the answer there. I do think that part of the answer could be, and we saw them make this adjustment in-game in their most recent game against the Chargers, is the 3-4 thing that you want to do, the 5-2, 3-4, whatever you want to call it, thing that you want to do isn't working with this group of personnel. You kind of got to go away from it.

Starting point is 00:07:20 So when you want to go to your base package, put four defensive linemen on the field. find the best combination of four and that probably means more King Davis-Gaith. And this is maybe something that we weren't expecting to talk about a lot today, Keen Davis-Ga-thor. But when he's been on the field, I think the defense largely has been a little bit better this year. And so that is something that we've seen from them when they put three linebackers on the field instead of five defensive linemen on the field. They've had some success with it.

Starting point is 00:07:51 And it was successful against the Chargers in that second half. well i i like it because you're getting another high-end athlete a guy who's disciplined a guy who's a literally a pro's like i think a keem davis gaither if he doesn't resign here is going to get a lot of money somewhere considering where he was free agency wise last year i think he's going to get an increased role and so yeah if you're not getting anything from your defensive line room well then maybe you get another athlete that can run, tackle, move, cover, do all of the things that you need to do in the league today. And I do think he can do that, even though he's a little undersized. I trust him to make plays in open space.

Starting point is 00:08:33 And he's one of those guys that does the right things, I think, on and off the field. And that, rewarding that alone matters, I think. And he has been productive on the field, obviously, this year when he's got his chances. I like that idea for sure. Akeem Davis-Kather, give him some more snaps. And can that keep you from bringing a safety down a little bit more, keeping two safeties high? I don't think that they have the personnel right now at that safety position

Starting point is 00:09:01 to be playing as much single high as they're playing. You're going to have to do it sometimes. You can't be exclusively a too high team, but can you tilt the balance a little bit and keep two safeties back a little bit more? And it's going to be matchup dependent. It's going to be gameplay independent, all those things. But it's just another thing that I think, isolating those safeties deep.

Starting point is 00:09:17 has not been great for them. And I think finding ways to get some juice pass rush-wise, whether maybe it is Akeem Davis-Kather blitzing because he's on the field more. Mike Hilton. It's been a lot of Logan Wilson. Yeah. And so doing that, I mean, you need to create whatever the Bengals defensively, their identity over the final six weeks, create some havoc.

Starting point is 00:09:42 No one's expecting them to give up seven points a game. but can you force turnovers, be opportunistic and find ways to get off the field in key moments? Like, I would take that, even if they give up 24 points a game down the stretch, because that's much better than we saw during the first 11 weeks. Yeah. And important for them finding a path to the playoffs, which starts, as I noted, with the Pittsburgh Steelers this week.

Starting point is 00:10:10 Let's talk about the Bengals path to the playoffs here, slim as it may be, coming out of the by week, coming up next. Are you missing someone this holiday season? Maybe you want them to be part of your Thanksgiving festivities from afar. Do your loved ones live far away but wish they could be close to you? Well, that's where you got to get a skylight frame because skylight frame is the touchscreen digital photo frame. Your whole family will love.

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Starting point is 00:12:22 Again, $150 in bonus bets if you win that first $5 bet at bandul.com, an official sportsbook partner of the NFL. Jake, you mentioned the playoff simulator. And I think a lot of people are going to hear playoffs and Bengals and just kind of dismiss it. And I totally get it. They didn't get a ton of help over the weekend either. outside of the Colts losing.

Starting point is 00:12:44 But there's still a chance, especially if they can find a way to beat Pittsburgh Sunday. You hinted at that. It's fair to call this a must win because if they lose this week, I think our, what should they do moving forward might sound a little different, by the way, from a personnel standpoint. It might lean more towards the youth. But I'm not there yet. I don't think the Bengals are there yet because they still have a shot to make the postseason. Well, it's crazy is a couple of weeks ago when we were.

Starting point is 00:13:12 we were looking at this. We were talking about their competition being the Indianapolis Colts and the Denver Broncos. And heck, now even the Baltimore Ravens are not falling into the mix competing for the seventh seed, but have fallen back to the pack. They're currently at the sixth seed in the AFC with the way things have gone for them this year. But the competition remains primarily the Denver Broncos, the Indianapolis Colts. And the Miami Dolphins have jumped in there from winning two games in a row. They're now, what, five and six? They're ahead of the Bengals in the standings and have obviously won another game, have lost one fewer games.

Starting point is 00:13:49 And for that reason, now you have to worry about the Miami Dolphins going forward. But like you said, it is of primary importance that the Bengals don't drop another game. And if they have to drop another game, it cannot be against an AFC opponent. They're two and five against the AFC. We talked about this last year, too. This is two years in a row where they've struggled against the AFC outside of the outside of the conference, obviously two and two. But that matters way less for playoff tiebreakers and those sorts of things.

Starting point is 00:14:23 And if they're going to make a push for that seventh seed, tiebreakers, sure as heck, could come into play when you're talking about how many teams are now competing for that seven seed. But if you look at the New York Times interactive page, the ability to, to, to, check off which games of Bengals win, which games of Bengals lose, you can look at what other games around the NFL have the biggest impact on the Bengals hopes. And it's pretty simple.

Starting point is 00:14:50 If the Bengals win out, they go from 11%, which they are today, to about a 95% chance to make the playoffs, according to the New York Times simulator. If the Bengals drop one game, and it's that game to the Cowboys, they are like a weighted coin flip

Starting point is 00:15:06 to make the playoffs, right around 60%, between 58% and 60% to make the playoffs yeah yeah if they drop one of those aFC games it's it's like a 30% chance if it's a steelers just a 30% chance if it's a broncos well it's even lower because that's a direct competition down to 20 so there's some games that are more important than others for sure but winning those aFC games is the starting point when you start to think about is there a path and You're asking a team that's four and seven to win out, essentially. That's a tall task and a big ask in the first place.

Starting point is 00:15:49 It is. It is no doubt. And they have to sweet Pittsburgh and they have to beat Denver. That has to happen. I think if that does happen, the Steelers will be in that mix. We're recording this ahead of Monday night football, chargers and Ravens. For my money, the Ravens are the best team in the division.

Starting point is 00:16:07 I expect the Ravens to win the North. And so if that does happen near the Bengals, okay, well, the Steelers can be your wildcard competition if you beat them twice. That changes things a bit. So that has to happen. You have to beat Denver. And then your other three games are against Tennessee, Cleveland. So two teams in the AFC with losing records and the Cowboys. But do you feel great about those matchups?

Starting point is 00:16:34 Those teams, the remaining opponents went four and one over the weekend. the Titans beat the Texans and you could talk about the Texans struggling but still the Titans won that game the Broncos obviously won the Browns beat the Steelers like I don't really feel great about any of their games

Starting point is 00:16:52 it doesn't mean they can't win out but my point is is like the gimmies or the easy wins it doesn't feel that easy going to Tennessee playing the Browns has never been easy for this group so winning out it yeah of course

Starting point is 00:17:07 winning out would be great, and I think they would get in the playoffs. I think five out of six may get it done, but I don't have a ton of confidence right now that they can do it. And it's not just because of what they've done or not done at four and seven. It's because the remaining opponents feel a bit tougher than they did, say, in May when the schedule came out. Well, yeah, I mean, if their defense was in the middle of the league and they were four wins better or something, you wouldn't be so worried.

Starting point is 00:17:37 about those games, right? It would be okay. The Bengals need to take care of business again this week. We're not talking about the Bengals taking care of business at any point for the rest of the season. I don't think. Maybe there will be a single game where it may be words that come out of our mouths. I doubt it. Doesn't feel great. Every game for this team right now is something of a struggle. And then you get outside of things of Bengals control and you look at some of the other. teams in this race that the Bengals are competing with, you're asking the Browns to beat

Starting point is 00:18:13 the Broncos in Week 13. You're asking the Patriots to beat the Colts. Then you're asking the Jets to beat the Dolphins, the Browns to give you some help against the Steelers, maybe, and then, you know, you need the, I was just looking at this, and now I've lost it. It's essentially like the Titans to beat the Colts, like these other teams that are in the race with the Bengals also face. some teams of the Bengals face that are down in the standings. And you need some help from those teams. Yeah. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:18:46 It's Zach won't be able to say they control their own destiny because technically they don't. I do think, and obviously you can only control what you can control, I think if they win five of six, and I know the math, if they win five of six and they drop the Dallas game, I think they'll get it. But think about that mountain, beating the Steelers. twice with that pass rush beating on the road beating jeffrey simmons a guy who just wrecked you last year and that was a bad titans team then too it's not like there's a big difference there from a

Starting point is 00:19:19 roster standpoint uh talent it's it's just a tall ask doesn't mean they can't do it i'm not going to completely dismiss joe burrow and jimar chase with the way they're playing but man oh man Do they need some of these other guys to just play better or find a diamond in the rough? I mean, they're in a bad way, Jake, let's go. There's no doubt about it. And did they get help or did they get hurt when the NFL flexed their Thursday night home game against the Cleveland Browns to Sunday? The Bengals balance of home and road primetime games this year. Not very favorable, certainly.

Starting point is 00:20:00 But let's discuss that we haven't been around. together, James, since the Bengals reflects out of Thursday night football, we'll finish the show there coming up next. Today's show is brought to you by Hillsdale College. Time is our most precious commodity. So don't waste it scrolling through the same mind-numbing content for hours and hours.

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Starting point is 00:21:03 in week 16. And in their place is the Denver Broncos making a trip to play the Los Angeles Chargers. There are a lot of dimensions to this. James, there was some debate, I suppose, on social media about whether this is a good or bad thing for the Cincinnati Bengals. And lost in that, and I'm guilty of this too, or primarily, I don't know about you. I shouldn't lump you in. But Lost in the football analysis is the impact on fans. And so first and foremost, for those out-of-town fans or for fans that were planning to host family that week and have plans to go to the game on Thursday night, your travel plans have been butchered by the NFL and maybe you blame the Bengals for being bad or whatever it is, some sympathy there.

Starting point is 00:21:53 That truly does suck for fans that had plans in place and had the plans ruined or need to change the plans because the game was going to want to express some, sympathy there for sure from a football perspective um go ahead hold on hold on it sucks it's annoying it's annoying because there are probably fans that prepared for the stripe the jungle that oh there were schedule wise to your point like so you buy a fly black outfit or the the right uh the right orange whatever it is or no was this the white was this the white and black no this was the orange pants can't do that at 1 p.m. So it's annoying and I feel bad for the fans and that's that just adds to the insult to injury because to me I get why the NFL did it. It's two bad teams. Right. And that's what you are when you're four and seven. You're a bad football team. Doesn't mean they're going to finish

Starting point is 00:22:52 that way, but damn it, they're a bad football team right now. And if the Bengals were seven and four instead of four and seven, they're not getting flexed at a prime time. They're just not. Not with Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase and this team with this star power. And so that's what stinks is now the losing has impacted fans, not just from a fandom standpoint, but from a, oh, man, that's an easy game to go to. I'm going to go to that and then spend the weekend with my family. Like, that makes a ton of sense. A game on Sunday, well, then you work the next day. Thursday night, you take Friday off and you have the whole weekend in Cincinnati if you're from Cincinnati.

Starting point is 00:23:26 It's real easy to do. So that part really stinks. I agree. Well, and in this case, maybe you're thinking about. spending a long weekend. It's the Christmas weekend, right? And so it's instead of getting to do the, do the football thing on Thursday and then have the weekend to focus on your family,

Starting point is 00:23:45 whatever you want to do from a holiday tradition perspective, anyway, I certainly feel for the fans there. Now, from a football perspective, there's a lot going on here too. On the upside, you don't have Thursday night football for the second time this season. Thursday Night Football always seems like a nightmare from an injury perspective, from a preparation perspective. It asks a lot of the players to play on short weeks. And it eliminates a three-stretch game, a three-stretch of games stretch on December 9th, December 15th, and December 19th. Instead, they'll go December 9th, December 15th, and now December 22nd with the rest of the NFL playing on Sunday.

Starting point is 00:24:28 So they lose that short rest stretch. They also lose on the negative side, a home Thursday night, AFC North game where the home team hasn't lost since 2015 and has only lost twice ever since the AFC North existed in Thursday night games. There's a massive home team win rate on Thursday night football on the AFC North. 90% of the time, the home team wins. We just saw the Browns beat the Steelers in a snowy Thursday night football game at home. It wrecks the Bengals balance of home and road primetime games this year because of flexes. They will end up having played four road primetime games against just one home primetime game. So again, not just for the Bengals, but also for the fans, the fans, maybe we're looking forward to more primetime games this year.

Starting point is 00:25:23 Instead, they only get one. and the last thing here is on the negative side anyway Denver gains a big rest advantage for week 17 where the Bengals previously had a rest advantage against one of their most important opponents the rest of the way. It directly goes to the Broncos instead. The Broncos now have to deal with a road Thursday night football game

Starting point is 00:25:42 in division, which you can imagine is going to be a tough game for them. But the Bengals had that head-to-head rest advantage and now the Broncos have it instead. So a lot going on there, James. What do you think? Yeah, I default to the Browns have had the Bengals number. It's still Miles Garrett, Denzo Ward, a good secondary, a solid defensive line around Miles Garrett. Having a few extra days to prepare for that, figure that out, and hopefully figure out this magic elixir to sweep the Browns is, I mean, it would be the first time they swept the Browns and Joe Burroughs career.

Starting point is 00:26:20 So I don't think that's a huge, huge issue. would it be nice to have that mini buy? Of course, especially that late in the year, especially if you've rattled off a few wins and you're in it and you can mentally reset again. At the same time, I don't know, quite frankly, if they deserve another mental reset. You have six games and having a few extra days to prepare

Starting point is 00:26:44 for what is going to be another must win. Beating the Browns at home is something you should do if you're a playoff team. I don't think it's that big of a deal. Now, when you say those, the Thursday, day night, AFC North home game. And no one's lost since 2015 when you're at home. Like I get that.

Starting point is 00:27:02 And it's like, oh, that's painful. But I also think about it. And I'm like, man, a lot of people could be confident going into that game and say that stat and lean on that stat. And then the Browns become the first team to win in nine years. And they do it at pay corps. So I think the extra few days is beneficial overall. And I'm not worried about missing out on that.

Starting point is 00:27:25 by the bengals are one of those teams one of one of the two teams that lost uh an a fc north home thursday night football game ever that you go back further yeah was the a fc central there's a couple of other examples but well they they lost at home to the browns on thursday night football brian hoyer sliced and diced them in 2014 14 13 it was one of those two years it was one of those two years. But yeah, he just look at it and I can't remember the year now. Oh, he lit him up. I was at that guy.

Starting point is 00:28:00 I was like, oh, let's get the hell out of here. Let's get out of here. It was rough. I wonder about the rest advantage for Denver. We'll see if that matters, if that doesn't matter if Denver is able to get a guy healthy that they otherwise wouldn't have been able to get healthy. They also deal with the short week trip to L.A., so that probably cancels it out a little bit, right? Any rest

Starting point is 00:28:25 advantage just because they're coming off Thursday night football. We know that the incidence of injury on Thursday night football can and I guess I shouldn't say we know. It feels like the incidence of injury on Thursday night football is higher because players are playing when they haven't

Starting point is 00:28:41 fully recovered from the previous game. I don't know if that is statistically true, but any advantage for Denver is offset, I think, by the fact that they have to play that Thursday night road game there. And then the Bengals just get a regular week of rest and have to take care of business,

Starting point is 00:29:02 something I said we wouldn't say, which isn't really what they have to do. They have to exceed expectations. Yeah. Their business is going 6 and 0 now. They need to be in the 6 and 0 business. Anything less than that is, it means that this year is probably over, right? 5 and 1 maybe, but you got to have that 6 and 0 mindset. We've talked a lot about must win games this year.

Starting point is 00:29:24 And then they've lost those games. And then games remain must win because they have no cushion. And that's obviously what happens when you lose a bunch of one score, one point games. You lose to New England in week one. You can't find the game winning play and all these games where they're in position to make game winning plays. I mean, there's only, there's still, to this day, there's only one game. They've clearly lost where they had no real shot in the fourth quarter to win that game. Yeah.

Starting point is 00:29:50 That was failing. Eagles who look like maybe the best team in the NFL right now. They're playing at a really high level. I mean, the lions still exist. I think, I think that's the other one that would be in the mix, right? Sure, but maybe, right? I mean, Philly's hot is the point. They have two losses all year.

Starting point is 00:30:10 They haven't lost since pre-playing Bengals. The last time Orlando Brown Jr. played. And, and like a, they're hot. They're on that, that Bengals kind of run right now from a few years ago where, They just started rattling them off, and Sequin Barclay's going crazy. Anyway, let's wrap up there, James. We've got a potential for a little bit more coming out of the bi-week content here coming up later this week. But we're getting ready to shift our attention back to the Bengals upcoming football games.

Starting point is 00:30:39 They are getting ready to play the Pittsburgh Steelers here this week. That means we're back on a game week schedule here on lockdown Bengals. And until next time, we appreciate you listening to this episode of the Lockdown Bengals podcast. Hootay and have a good one.

Locked On Bengals - Daily Podcast On The Cincinnati Bengals - Can the Cincinnati Bengals make changes coming out of their bye week to run the table and keep their playoff aspirations alive?

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