Locked On Bengals - Daily Podcast On The Cincinnati Bengals - Does the Bengals' season hinge on X-Factors stepping up in 2025?

Starting point is 00:00:01 The Cincinnati Bengals have a long list of unknowns heading into 2025. Let's talk about the X factors that could make or break the Cincinnati season. You are locked on Bengals, your daily Cincinnati Bengals podcast. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. What on, Bengals fans, and welcome to another episode of the Lockdown Bengals podcast. Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, your team every day. I'm Jake Liscoe. He's James Rapine, and we are your host of the Lockdowneysville.

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Starting point is 00:00:55 You can even go so far as to make your great listening habits and clue making Lockdown Bengals your first listen every day. James Today, we dive into a long. And I mean long list of X-Factor players and we'll try to figure out who the most important X-Factor players are perhaps in an episode that is going to have to cover a lot of names here, James. And obviously, Joe Burrow, Jamar Chase, T. Higgins

Starting point is 00:01:26 make this team go. Those are your superstars. Trey Hendrickson, hopefully in that mix as well by the time we get to training camp. but when we think about X factors, that includes players that we don't talk about as much. It could include Jermaine Burton. There's been a lot of discussion around Remain Burton this year,

Starting point is 00:01:48 but maybe it's some names that we haven't discussed to quite that level of depth. Obviously, we've talked a lot about variance that could happen on the defensive side of the ball, but when you think X factors and you think Cincinnati Bengals 2025, who comes to top of mind? And this has part, well, I'll just say that. Dax Hill.

Starting point is 00:02:10 Daxhill comes to mind. And part of that has to do with his ceiling and his athletic gifts. And what I think he could mean to this defense if they can maximize him. And if they can get the most out of him. Because I don't think he needs to be just an outside corner or a nickel corner. Or obviously he played safety in the past. Like I think he can be this defensive weapon for them. that they use in a bunch of different ways.

Starting point is 00:02:37 Now, primarily corner, but can he recover? Can he be healthy? And give them, not even a blue chipper, but like a borderline pro bowler on defense, not named Trey Hendrickson. That's why I went with backs,

Starting point is 00:02:52 is it's like, all right, who's the most likely guy that can be a borderline pro bowler on defense? And, you know, you could name a bunch of defensive linemen. I'm sure we'll talk about him. at Cam Taylor Britt a year ago.

Starting point is 00:03:06 People were on the cam train. I think it's probably Dax. I think he's got the highest upside there. And so when you talk about X factor, what a weapon he would be if not only is he healthy to start the year, but by mid-year, you're like, oh, my God, they have a playmaker that can blitz and cover and help guard tight ends. And if you need him to play outside, he can do that.

Starting point is 00:03:29 But if you kick him inside to play against the tight end, he's got the size and the speed and the athleticism to do that. and to stick with some of the top wide receivers. Like, that to me is the guy when you mix in the upside, the fact that he's coming back from an injury and the unknown, he's leading the way for me as far as X factors are concerned. And when we talk about X factors, obviously we're talking about guys that could exceed expectations to a degree so significantly that they change the course of the season. And I think Dax Hill could fit that category. There's a great degree of uncertainty around what he will be coming off the injury and what his role will be.

Starting point is 00:04:13 But I want to stick on the Dax Hill topic and dive into it a little bit more deeply. I also want to mention some other players in the secondary that also could, you mentioned Camp Taylor-Brent, fit this criteria of being X-Factor players. I think DJ Turner probably hasn't been discussed enough this offseason as a player who was also. also ascending last year, going into now his third year, a player that seems to have figured out some of those limitations around his length and is playing pretty dang good football the last we've seen. DJ Turner also could go into this bucket. I think Cam Taylor Britt, like you said, also could go into this bucket, which makes that three quarters. I mean, you could even make an argument for Josh Newton, who people are talking about with Captain hype on this defense and his second.

Starting point is 00:05:04 second year, you can even throw Josh Newton into that conversation and go four corners deep on defense and say, hey, these corners are all X factors. And I think you would be right to say that the corners are all X factors. But let's focus on Dax Hill. Because if Dax Hill can approximate Leon Hall's role in Leon Hall's prime in Cincinnati, you're talking about a player that is a perfect fit, I think, for Al Gorenton's defense. What have you seen when you see various clips come up or you've been at the practices obviously but we're seeing guys like camp taylor britt end up at safety on some place or travel in a lot with tight ends across the field or whatever it is we're seeing corners end up in less defined pre-snap anyway positions you're seeing the kind of

Starting point is 00:05:55 disguise that bengals want to use this year involve players sometimes rotating into different roles And we'll see what sticks. We'll see what we see in the preseason and early in the regular season. And we start to get a real feel for what those differences will be with Al Golden's defense that we think is going to want to run a lot more man. But if the key to disguise in Al Golden's world is that when the offense moves, the role of the defender changes and you're just going to disguise that way and you're going to end up with an outside corner rolling to safety. frequently or as part of your core defensive design, then Dax Hill sounds like a great fit for that kind of system, right? And his ability to play man on any kind of offensive weapon,

Starting point is 00:06:48 be it tight end, outside receiver, slot receiver, having the movement ability, the size, the technical prowess to deal with those things. And we'll see how that comes along this year coming off the ACL. Ellen in his fourth year. That's why he's an X factor, right? But that sounds like a great fit for the direction we think the Bengals defense is going. Yeah. And it's a need.

Starting point is 00:07:13 They need it. They desperately need. Like there's a reason I saw yesterday, what, no, two days ago, the, the Falcons put out, and I was like four or five days late on the tweet, but it was like year three for Jesse Bates loading. And I was like, man, all of our viewers and listeners would hate saying this. Because it's literally like Jesse Bates in a Falcon's uniform. And he's, and Jesse Bates wasn't just a safety.

Starting point is 00:07:39 He helped bring stability to your defense in high level play. And you just need more of that. You need someone to be a high level player. And so the moment you said Leon Hall, I was like, oh, my God, if he can be 95% of Leon Hall. Like, who, baby. Like, sign me up, please. And I know how Golden feels that way. Cornerbacks coach Chuck Berks feels that way. And they believe in Dax. And so I'm really excited to hopefully see the unleashed Dax Hill where by midyear, we're not talking about him being an X factor. We're talking about him being a staple of the Bengals defense in 2025 and many, many years after it.

Starting point is 00:08:22 And that's a lofty comparison, to be fair. No doubt. Asking Dax Hill to go out there and be Leon Hall right away, isn't the fairest thing I've ever done to Dax Hill? And this is a guy that's dealt with some pretty difficult situations throughout his career as far as position changes, coaching changes, trying to figure out what his role would be and a clear gap between the front office and the coaching staff on Dax Hill that hopefully is remedied with the,

Starting point is 00:08:56 changes to the coaching staff. We just talked about that quite a bit in our most recent episode about whether Zach Taylor is in fact on the hot seat. But the way Dax played last year, forcing his way into an outside corner starting role and doing that at a high level, the reason I think about Leon Hall is because in the Bengals defense, he played outside and then would go into the slot when they would go into nickel. And that to me is what I keep coming back to for an ideal outcome for for dachs hill and and he just had a season where he was a great blitzer in a limited sample size so you give him those opportunities when he can play in the slot but he also held up on the outside and leon hall was also like elite elite tackling and in the

Starting point is 00:09:44 run game so if he can get back to that level dax is a tackler that he showed in 2023 where again limited sample only 262 snaps last year we we we can get back to that level dax is a tackler that he showed in 2023 we didn't see him tackling at quite that level. He had five missed tackles in his four games and 14 snaps last year. Then you're talking about something that can approximately unhaul. We have more X factors to get to here. There are more X factors than just Dax Hill on this team. We'll continue that conversation coming up next.

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Starting point is 00:11:17 James, when you think X factors for the Cincinnati Bengals 2025 season, Dax Hill is top of mind. What's your next thought? defensive line defensive line and maybe it should be offensive line I think that one's interesting too but I would put the defensive line in a bucket and say all right

Starting point is 00:11:37 Joseph Osai Miles Murphy Chris Jenkins McKinley Jackson I need two of you guys to be starter or better level players that get consistent pass rush you know like that that's it like can two of those guys emerge

Starting point is 00:11:52 and Shamar Stewart's in there too I just don't think rookies are necessarily X-Factors, but if he emerges, it would be pretty much the same. So I would say that whole bucket is Jerry Montgomery, the X-Factor room, is how I would put that. It gets to a point where the entire defense is an X-Factor. And then is it just like Al Golden? Is Al-Goldan actually the X-Factor here?

Starting point is 00:12:17 Can he figure out how to put these guys into the right position, to play to their strengths and actually get something out of players that underachieved, especially these young guys underachieved compared to expectation with Luena Ruma, or it took them too long to figure out how to use some of these guys. I think it's fair to put Chris Jenkins and McKinley Jackson into this bucket. I think it's fair to put Joseph Osai and Miles Murphy into this bucket as well. Because those are young guys that we really don't know exactly who they're going to be in the NFL yet. I mean, Joseph Osai, we've seen for long enough that we should know.

Starting point is 00:12:50 But even there, there's still question. which version of Joseph Osai are you going to get? And it sounds like how Golden is pretty bullish there. Then there's a front office X factor in this conversation of getting the deal done with Trey Hendrickson, which is a little bit tongue in cheek, right? But you get the point, some uncertainty there. Overall point is you can talk about all these corners that we just talked about, all these defensive linemen we just talked about.

Starting point is 00:13:18 I think you could put the rookie first two picks to meet your site, to get to Marce Stewart into that conversation as well. If they get a guy that can hit the ground running there, great. I think you can put Logan Wilson into that conversation to some degree as well. You can put Genel Stone and Jordan Battle into that conversation as well. And when you're at the point where you can put every single defensive player into that conversation to some degree, I think we know who B.J. Hill is. I think we know who Trey Hendrickson is.

Starting point is 00:13:49 But outside of that, you're talking about like 50. 15 guys on this defense that are like, which end of the coin are we going to get? Or what level of variance are you going to be better than we think? Worse than we think? That's what we're talking about. We talk about high variance. Then do we shift that conversation to the coaches at that point on that side of the ball to some degree? And to what degree, I think is really the question.

Starting point is 00:14:14 Yeah, I think Logan is a big one. Because, yeah, the coaches, especially for all the young guys, clearly the Bengals are banking on the coaches to get the most out of them. Logan's Logan. It's not like suddenly Al Golden's in town. Logan needs to be healthy. He needs to be active. He needs to be super around the ball.

Starting point is 00:14:38 And I know that's not a great way to describe it. But when I think of Logan Wilson, like peak Logan Wilson, that's it. He's always around. He's disruptive. He's making plays in the middle of the field. He's obviously a good tackler. And then he's somehow, some way coming up with. interceptions and just being a guy that's all over. And so can he get back to that? It's going to be a

Starting point is 00:15:01 huge factor and what this defense is because Demetrius Knight is going to have some ups and downs. Like even if today physically he can do everything that Jermaine Pratt can do and more, it's just going to take a little time. It just is with rookies. It does. It doesn't mean he won't have highlight plays. He could. And hopefully he does and hits the ground running. But yeah Logan Wilson is a really interesting one and yet you're right you can make a case for a lot of these guys

Starting point is 00:15:30 to be X factors and that's what the Bengals are saying there's unknowns with all of them all these question marks that they hope end up being quality X factors Al Golden's the guy to fix it and to maximize it and put these guys in position and

Starting point is 00:15:47 get the most out of what they have And so, yeah, you want to talk about X factors. Like, are we talking about Al Golden in December? Like, he was being talked about last December when he was arguably the best defensive coordinator in the country for Notre Dame. Like, does he vault himself into that conversation? I mean, a couple of years ago, people thought Lou Anirumo was one of the best defensive coordinators in the league.

Starting point is 00:16:12 And things quickly changed. And he still held in high regard. He was scooped up very, very, very quickly, I would say, by the the Colts a couple of weeks. So can Al Golden vault himself into that? That's a big X factor for sure. Because if he's just a guy at defensive coordinator, they might be okay on defense, but they're not going to be,

Starting point is 00:16:34 they're not going to blow the water out of, blow us out of the water from an expectation standpoint, unless these guys are just far more talented than we realize. Or maybe he ends up being a top five defensive coordinator and one of the best defensive minds in all the football. I can't rule that out. And if that happens, then he would be able to get a lot out of this defense,

Starting point is 00:16:58 even with all the question marks. And that's where it comes down to the golden X factor, to me, in a big way. Because when we're talking about all of these players, if they all just hit it up the middle and they're like kind of average, because that's where it likely shakes out, is you probably don't skew negative,

Starting point is 00:17:16 you probably don't skew positive, you probably end up somewhere in the middle. in terms of the level of, let's say, let's put this in mad in terms. Let's say the defense could be anywhere from a 70 to an 85. The likely outcome is somewhere around 77, right? Somewhere right in the middle. And that's going to involve some players going high. Some players are going to be 84s instead of 80s.

Starting point is 00:17:42 Some players are going to be 72s instead of 76s, to put it all in math in terms, right? and so you could go player by player but then like ultimately if the players are who they've been which again it is fair to expect like they've shown us to some degree who they are and you should expect them to continue to be that way outside of maybe second year players where you should expect you know that that's sophomore step but there's also such a thing as a sophomore slump so when you're talking about all of this the entire unit this way that really speaks to the uncertainty and the onus that has been placed on the defensive coaching staff to make this thing work because the smart money, I think, is for this thing to end up somewhere in the middle, right, of this range of outcomes.

Starting point is 00:18:39 That's generally the way it works. Generally, things don't change. Generally, players are who they've shown you to be. But maybe this is an off-season fiction we're selling ourselves, or maybe there is really a ton of variance on this defense. And the entire unit is essentially seen as an X-Factor. Yeah, I think it can be. It can be where, again, you're making the case.

Starting point is 00:19:03 And when I'm leading with defense, you know that it's real. Because it's been all defense. It's not just defense. I think there are some X factors on offense. You hinted at one of them. I think there are more than one and not just players, coaches as well. So let's get to that. Let's talk offense.

Starting point is 00:19:22 You know me. I want to talk offense. We're 20 minutes into the show. And we haven't talked about the offense. We'll do that coming up next. James, when I talk about X factors for the 2025 Cincinnati Bengals, yeah. Dax Till was top of mind.

Starting point is 00:19:38 The defensive line was second. And then we went into a long tangent about the defense. in its entirety. Yep. Let's eliminate the defense. What comes to mind? Well, I wish it was Tate Ratledge or someone. Oh, come on.

Starting point is 00:19:58 But, uh, what are you doing? But, but no, but I'm just, I'm just thinking about it. Like, it's like, it's like both rookie linemen, like Dylan Fairchild and Jalen Rivers, I think are X factors. Scott Peters, a huge X factor. You can go with skill players. and I think there are multiple skill guys that you could talk about. Germain Burton is a huge one, but there are others.

Starting point is 00:20:23 And so, yeah, I can't help but think trenches again, though, because of what they did or didn't do at guard, it's up to Scott Peters to either get more and like significantly more out of Cordell-Wilson or for him to maximize what Dylan Fairchild can be as a rookie and get at least the league average guard play and better than that pass blocking from a rookie third rounder. And then on the other side,

Starting point is 00:20:53 Lucas Patrick, Cody Ford, or Jalen Rivers, I'll still throw him in even though the Bengals only worked him really at tackle from what I've seen to this point. Huge, huge pressure there because I'm sick of the pressure on number nine. Everybody is. And the whole world knows they're going to throw it 50 times. So you have to find a way to keep him upright.

Starting point is 00:21:12 And that's a huge, huge question mark for this offense, specifically the interior. I cannot in good faith call the interior offensive line an X factor because I don't think that there's really a world where they hit the high end outcome. Maybe Dylan Fairchild. You can sell me on that possibility. But he's a rookie. And so I don't think that's really fair to say, yeah, this third round pick who the Bengals felt compelled to take because they desperately needed an offensive lineman at that point.

Starting point is 00:21:41 They liked Dylan Fairchild the best out of all the options. Like, that's a lot of pressure for a rookie. And at right car, Lucas Patrick, Cody Ford, you're not selling me on those guys being X factors. You're hoping you can- I said Jaila Rivers. Jaila Rivers, X-Factor.

Starting point is 00:21:56 I mean, have we seen him in that competition at all? We'll see in training camp, I guess. Yeah, I was going to say it was May and June. Yeah. If we're talking trenches, to me, it's just a Marius Mims. And we kind of hinted it. at the end of our most recent show where we're talking about the coaching staff and Zach Taylor's hot seat. One of the ways this offense can level up is by becoming more consistent in the run game.

Starting point is 00:22:22 And that is especially germane latent games when you need to run to kill some clock to make it easier to finish games. So you're not dropping back, risking incomplete. And Joe Burroughs great at keeping the clock moving in the passing game when he needs to. But if you could run the ball in those situations better, we've seen how the Bengals can close games when they can run the ball to close games. We've seen that in the Joe Burrow era. Marius Mims is the rarest of physical specimens on the offensive line from an athletic gift's perspective, size, strength.

Starting point is 00:23:04 Orlando Brown's in that conversation, too, obviously from a size and strength perspective, but Amarius can move in a way that Orlando can't. And where you would like to see that translate in year two for Amarius is in the run game. And take that step that you can see his athletic tools providing him a pathway to as a run blocker. Where I think the game was still fast for him and maybe the scheme wasn't working for him or whatever the issue was where you just didn't see him using his athletic tools to just blow guys up. the way you would expect to see him just absolutely demolishing guys in the run game. And so to me, I really liked what we saw from Amarius vans as a pass protector as a rookie,

Starting point is 00:23:48 like the direction there and the marriage there was Scott Peters. But the direction for Amarius in the run game, I think, is specifically a big X factor for the ceiling of this offense and the consistency of the run game in this offense. Because if he's a weapon, right, look at what? what the lions can do with Penae Soule. And I know they have an entirely cohesive and good offensive line, at least they did last year in 2024. But if you can get something approaching,

Starting point is 00:24:18 and I'm not expecting him to be Penae Soule, but if you can get something approaching that level of consistency and violence in the run game, that's a big step up. Well, he's the offensive line version of like, of Dax. it's where oh man what if you suddenly have an all-pro offensive lineman or future all-pro and he's a pro-bowler this year

Starting point is 00:24:41 like he could be a pro-bowler this year like Orlando Brown Jr. has been a pro-bler I think there was a point last year where he's playing like an all-pro and so if Orlando just stays healthy and is playing at Pro Bowl for him and then suddenly you have on the other side Amarius just being a nightmare

Starting point is 00:25:00 for opposing defensive lineman it is going to make life easier on Joe, easier on on Zach and Dan as they scheme up things. And having a weapon in the run game, I think is really interesting, pointing it out that way. Like, can you imagine having a dude that's like that in the run game where you can lean in on his athletic traits, but also his strength and power and all of those things? That would be, it would be huge, especially in a division where you have Miles Garrett. and T.J. Watt, and you're dealing with all these dudes every week. If your ends can be, and I expect Orlando Brown Jr. to be a Pro Bowl level.

Starting point is 00:25:42 But if you have another guy that's playing at a Pro Bowl level at right tackle, when's the last time they had a Pro Bowl right tackle? I mean, I assume it's Willie. It's got to be Willie, right? I'm trying to think. I think it's Willie. Did Andre Smith ever make a Pro Bowl? No, no. Come on. He had a couple years where he's okay. Yes.

Starting point is 00:26:02 you know. Are you looking? Anyway. No, he did not. I didn't need to look. He did not. Okay. I don't know where else you go on offense.

Starting point is 00:26:12 I think there is a case to be made for Jermaine Burton. And that's one that has certainly been a hot topic throughout the offseason program. I think we will see when the rubber meets the road for Jermain. We'll see how consistent he can be. I did mention in an episode, I think recently, that I can start to buy Jermaine. Burton stock as wide receiver four and if he if he's your fourth guy you're not asking him to go be a future starter necessarily in the near future anyway then then I can start to buy germain Burton there a little bit but where I would conclude James and you might not like this

Starting point is 00:26:53 very much you might push back is Evan McPherson in the kicking game and maybe it's not just Evan. The Bengals bring in William Wagner, college-free agent to compete with Calitamitis at Long Snapper. And we don't need to dig too deep into the whole specialist operation here. But the kicking game in general was a letdown in 2024. I would say in some way, shape, or form contributed to some of their issues, some of their losses. And when you have the leg strength that Evan McPherson has, that we've seen and the clutch that we've seen from him throughout his career, getting back to that point is pretty important when we're talking about some of the margins that the Bengals can't afford to lose on in 2025.

Starting point is 00:27:42 No doubt. Oh, no doubt. I mean, that's huge. You know, he's an X factor. There's no doubt about it. I was critical of Evan last year. The Bengals, they just believed that a lot of the issues were snapping too. It wasn't just Evan.

Starting point is 00:27:57 and that it was a mixture. But that has to be better. You paid Evan because you think he's going to be a top five kicker in the league. That's it. And so you need him to be a top five kicker in the league this year. You know what really helps put points on the board, knowing that that operation is going to work. And it being automatic. And it being, by the way, I think it can get there.

Starting point is 00:28:19 I think he's that talented. In that long snapper battle, that's a real thing. And it does matter. And it's something we're going to have to come. in training camp because that could be the difference between winning, especially winning in September and not winning in September, getting off to a fast start, not getting off to a fast start, closing games, not closing out games. And we saw it last year throughout, has to be so much better. They know it. And what they did is they evaluated everything after the season. And they said long

Starting point is 00:28:50 snapper. That's the area where Cal has to be better. We're going to bring someone in. They did that. So that's an interesting competition, but Evan knows. I know Evan knows, and obviously they're banking on Ryan Rico to be even better in year two. When you have a career low, I mean, he threw out his first three seasons, 85%, 83%, 84%, pretty consistent. Kick and field goals was pretty good, especially early. He started his career 14 for 16 on 50-plus yard field goals. I'm just looking at regular season stats. Obviously, his kicking in the Bengals Super Bowl run was fantastic.

Starting point is 00:29:25 And then in the last two seasons, just 10 of 19 on 50 plus yard field goals, which is a significant drop-off. Had some issues with extra points early in his career, largely has cleaned those up. One of the areas I was critical of that said he needed to get better at after his first two years was kicking in the 40 to 49-yard range in 20-23, a perfect 8 of 8 in that area in 2024, back to 3 or 5. and he didn't finish the season as he dealt with an injury. So you see all that, and then you drop to 73%. A 10% drop off and made kicks. Getting him back to that 84% or better number and making those critical kicks,

Starting point is 00:30:08 you look at his game log. I mean, Baltimore lost, missing his only field goal attempt, and that was a 50-plus yarder in that game. Washington game. Bengals lose by 5. Evan misses a field goal in that game as well. it's not all on Evan but it's part of the margins we're talking about here when we're talking about make or break factors for the Bengals in 2025 and it's somewhere they can be elite it's another

Starting point is 00:30:34 spot it's a really good call by you like in the perfect world you have this elite defensive playmaker in Daxhill an elite right tackle and an elite kicker to go along with your your elite pass rusher to Trey Hendrickson and elite receivers and elite quarterback. Now suddenly it feels much different if you're elite at all these spots, right? And that would work out well, Jake. That would be, that would be big. So yeah, no, they need Evan. They need Evan.

Starting point is 00:31:04 There's no doubt. And hopefully he can not just get back to like Super Bowl form during the Super Bowl run, but like better than that. But like 90% on kick. and wait like just as consistent as he's been on 50 yards. I think he's capable of doing that, of being more consistent and also being able to kick the long ones. I mean, if he's just as kicking like he did in those two, I mean,

Starting point is 00:31:31 in the playoffs, he's perfect. Playoffs, he's great. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Except for one missed extra point in 2022. He's 19 of 19 on playoff field goals. Insane. Now, a lot of those are shorter, but in 2021, that included two for two from 40 to 49 and three for 30 from 50 plus.

Starting point is 00:31:47 And I had no doubt, I had no doubt in Super Bowl 56. We were both there. Yeah. Had they gotten 25 more yards or whatever they needed? Evan's making that and tying the game. I don't think anyone in the building doubted that. There's a lot of confidence. And Evan McPherson then getting back to that level seems important to me to the Bengals in 2025,

Starting point is 00:32:09 where you're going to have tight games. And like you said, if they can find these other players, a big key to this season is not just the results of this season, but finding these other pieces that can be part of your future outside of the guys that we know are in the core. And that's hopefully some of the guys we talked about today and the entire defensive side of the ball. We'll see what happens there. That's going to do it for this episode of the Lockdown Bengals podcast.

Starting point is 00:32:35 Until next time, thanks for listening. Ho-Day and have a good.

Locked On Bengals - Daily Podcast On The Cincinnati Bengals - Does the Bengals' season hinge on X-Factors stepping up in 2025?

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