Locked On Bengals - Daily Podcast On The Cincinnati Bengals - Playoffs?! Breaking down the Cincinnati Bengals' narrow path and help they need to sneak in

Starting point is 00:00:00 Playoffs. You want to talk playoffs? Yes, we're talking playoffs today on Locked on Bengals. You are Locked on Bengals, your daily Cincinnati Bengals podcast. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. Well on, Bengals fans, and welcome to another episode of the Locked on Bengals podcast. I'm Jake Liskow, he's James Rapids. Together, we are Locked on Bengals on the Lockdown podcast that we're covering your team every day on YouTube. and everywhere you get your podcast. Shout out to the everyday or those of you who don't miss an episode of locked off.

Starting point is 00:00:41 Bengals, we appreciate you so very much in addition to all of you who make us your first listen. And if you're new to the show, maybe you're curious about those Bengals' playoffs scenarios and that slim path that they face to make it into the playoffs. Well, we're going to break it all down today. In addition to getting to what we think you can buy down the stretch here, the Bengals are getting that bounce against some bad teams down the stretch. At the same time, we're actually talking. about that slim path to the playoffs.

Starting point is 00:01:08 So what are we buying from this team down the stretch? But James, we start with the playoff situation today in an episode brought to you by game time where you can buy tickets and save $20 on your first ticket in the app with promo code locked on in NFL. And if you're talking about playoff tickets, well, the Bengals have a lot of work to do. Playoffs. To get to that point. Yeah, they do.

Starting point is 00:01:34 they do. Sorry, I'll stop going. Playoffs starting now. They have a lot of work to do. And it starts with winning three straight. And they've already won two straight. And they haven't won three straight all season long. They've only won back-to-back games twice. So even though they've won back-to-back, Jake, if it just starts right now, they have to do something over the next three weeks that they haven't done all year. And so that alone is a big ask, right? Now, you could say, oh, well, Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase. And so you could sell your on that, that they beat the Browns and then they handle business against the Broncos, and then who knows what Pittsburgh's playing for? All right, fine. So let's just say you get that done. Then there's three, four different teams are paying attention to. To me, it's really three. You need the dolphins to lose one. You need the Colts to lose one. And then I'm paying attention to the Denver Broncos who play Thursday night. They play the Chargers. And you either need the Broncos to lose out or the Chargers to lose out. and go 0 and 3 down the stretch.

Starting point is 00:02:36 The reason why I would be focused on the Broncos and on Thursday night rooting for the Chargers is if you're the Bengals, you play the Broncos. You can control that element. And so if the Broncos lose Thursday night, you beat the Browns on Sunday, well then at least for one more week, your playoff hopes will be alive

Starting point is 00:02:54 and you play the team that is in your way. So a lot needs to happen. You're asking good teams, well-coached teams, to lose out, teams like the Dolphins to lose to a game that they probably should lose in the 49ers, but this coming week. And then you need the Titans to potentially step up and knock off the Colts. There's just a lot of things that have to go the Bengals way. Yeah, when you look at the opponents for these teams, that's where things get dice here. I mean, and in the first place, we're talking about, okay, the Bengals need to win out. And you mentioned their difficulties

Starting point is 00:03:30 in winning consecutive games this year. We've obviously, watched all the games this season. Everyone listening to this show has probably seen, or watching the show is probably seen all the games this season. And you know that it's been hard for the Bengals to win this year. They've got a bunch of one-score losses in the AFC in particular that came down to the wire, or we're excruciating losses,

Starting point is 00:03:51 and we've covered all of them. We've been through all of those. So not only do the Bengals need to win out, but you also need one of the Broncos or chargers to lose out, like those two opposite outcomes, that the Bengals need, not to mention needing the dolphins or Colts to lose one. So you look at the opponents of these teams that they have to deal with down the stretch and where those losses could come from and try to talk yourself into the possibility.

Starting point is 00:04:17 Because you've seen this happen before. If the Bengals do end up making it, it's unlikely, but not unheard of in NFL history. But the Dolphins having to play San Francisco at Cleveland at New York, so they got one division game there with the Jets. The Cleveland Browns are in disarray. They're spiraling. The Bengals also have to beat the Browns. But the dolphins have to go to Cleveland where it's a little bit harder to play, generally,

Starting point is 00:04:43 historically. I don't know about this year. And then the San Francisco 49ers who, similar to the Bengals, had all these expectations this season and are also six and eight. The Colts need the Colts to lose one. They lost to the Broncos on Sunday, so that helps a little bit. There's obviously some give and take there with the Broncos, but the Colts play the Tennessee Titans at home.

Starting point is 00:05:07 They go to the New York Giants, and they play the Jacksonville Jaguars at home. It doesn't get much softer than that. So even with all these other things we're talking about, you need the Colts to lose one of those games that, I mean, the Colts are an erratic team as well, but you probably wouldn't expect them to lose. So Broncos play the Chargers, the Bengals,

Starting point is 00:05:29 which Bengals can control to some degree. Cincinnati and the Kansas City Chiefs who may or may not have anything to play for in that final game of the season as well. And Patrick Mahomes dealing with an injury, who knows how they handle that. You look at the Chargers, again, there's some easy games down the stretch here for the Chargers. This is why James isn't really watching the Chargers as closely. They play Denver, which is a divisional game that certainly matters for both teams. Then they play the New England Patriots and the Las Vegas Raiders. Yeah, I mean, you don't think Jim Harbaugh is winning one of those games.

Starting point is 00:06:01 maybe with you at quarterback. You know, I just, I think that that's honestly, probably with you at quarterback, with the Raiders quarterback situation. It's, it's tough. And so you need the Chargers this week. Chargers this week and win over. Here's how I look at it, because there's so many things that need to happen and it's overwhelming. So from a Bengals fan standpoint,

Starting point is 00:06:26 route for the Chargers Thursday night, and root forever you want, but I think that this is the logical approach. Root for the Chargers Thursday night and hope the Bengals handle business on Sunday. And then maybe the Colts stub their toe or the dolphins. And I think the dolphins this week is the toughest because the 49ers really have to need a miracle if they're going to do anything. But the 49ers have been bad this year. So on paper, that's a tough one, but not so much. Not that I think the dolphins are good.

Starting point is 00:06:56 But I don't think people around the league think the Bengals are necessarily a good team either. So you're going to need help from some of these bad teams. And the other element here is you really need, and it's weird with Patrick Mahomes's injury, but if the chiefs go one in one over the next two, you need that week 18 game to matter for the Kansas City Chiefs. If the Broncos lose Thursday and then you beat them somehow next week and you beat the Browns, you need the Chiefs to be playing for the one seat in week 18. Because if they are, well, yeah, there's reason to believe. they can beat the Broncos, of course.

Starting point is 00:07:32 Is Carson Wentz doing it? Is a bunch of chiefs backups doing it? If they know that they can rest Mahomes because they have the number one seed locked up, that's the dynamic here where it's like, all right, you need the chiefs to go one and one over the next two at best. And the bills to win and keep pressure on the chiefs,

Starting point is 00:07:51 they have that tiebreaker so that week 18 chiefs game matters. So there's a lot of things. There's a lot of things. And that's why I simplify it to. Thursday night, root for the, chargers and then obviously the Bengals need to handle business against the Browns on Sunday. And in case you're curious about the chief schedule for their last three games, Houston Texans at home, at Pittsburgh, and then at Denver to finish. So you need the Pittsburgh Steelers and

Starting point is 00:08:16 Houston Texans to win one of those two games. The Steelers could win? The Texans could win too. I mean, Carson wins? Carson, you know, you've seen Andy Reid do it with some backup Oh, no doubt. So we'll see what happens there. Like you're talking about Carson Wentz and some Broncos. And I'm like, yeah, I can see that. Sure. And they haven't been winning the, yeah, you're right.

Starting point is 00:08:43 That's true. And so there's a scenario. But they haven't been winning with Mahomes going off, obviously. They've been winning with defense and running the ball and all of the things you do with the backup anyways. So it's tough. It's tough. Anytime I break this down, Jake, I think. of week one.

Starting point is 00:09:02 And in the moment, we said week one would cost them. And it would really hurt this time of year. And guess what it does? I think about the Chargers game. Like you wouldn't need, we wouldn't be mentioning the Chargers the same way. Had they handled business there. Obviously, you mentioned all the other guys. I mean, there's so many.

Starting point is 00:09:16 They're two and seven and one score games. But those are the two. It's like, oh, I'm like, if you had just beat the Chargers and beat Jacoby Brissette, just different. So much different. And instead, you need about 800 things to happen. and they need to do something that they haven't done. I mean, entering this stretch, they had four wins.

Starting point is 00:09:35 We're asking them to win five in a row to have a chance. It's just a lot to ask when we kind of know what this team is. And even if they were to win all those games, what level of belief would there be in the playoffs, given the way the season has gone? That's the other element that's interesting to me. In addition to a quick update on where the Bengals will be picking, On the other side of things, if you're not interested in the playoffs,

Starting point is 00:10:02 if you're interested in draft order, we'll make sure we cover those couple topics to wrap this conversation up coming up next. Today's show is brought to by Game Time. Game Time is the app you need right now because game time, what's going to make life easier on you? Whether you want to watch Bengals Browns on Sunday, maybe you're thinking, all right, that Broncos game is really going to matter.

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Starting point is 00:11:59 to join today to get started. Those $150 in bonus bets are there for you if you win your first $5 bet. That's at Fandul.com, official sportsbook partner of the NFL. Draft position, Jake. Draft position. And the Bengals, there was some talk a few weeks ago, like, oh, well, if they lose out, and I think you and I both knew, they were just too good to do that,

Starting point is 00:12:25 especially with the teams on their schedule, like a Dallas team or like the Titans who are, I mean, they're just awful. by the way. I mean, over 24 hours removed from the game now. I'm like, man, that is a bad football team. But you win a couple of games and now draft position-wise, they're moving down and getting a worst draft pick as their playoff chances have went up by like half a percentage. They're like 2.1% right now to make the postseason, by the way, for those wonder. Oh, interesting. I'd seen that number as high as like 5% maybe from different models. There are a bunch of different models out there. that have different percentages. The ESPN model, the PFF model, the New York Times model.

Starting point is 00:13:06 Yeah, I think it's under 6% everywhere that I've seen, but I've seen like 2.1, I've seen like 3. You mentioned 5. Maybe I'm maybe that's errant recall on my part to come up with the 5. No, I think you're right. I thought that was the ESPN, ESPN model that I saw this morning. Anyway, two things left on this conversation. One of those is a draft order. One of those is, even if they make the playoffs. And that'll be a bit of a quicker conversation that ties into what are we buying

Starting point is 00:13:37 or maybe not a quicker conversation. Maybe that's just a lead into the transition to what are we buying down the stretch here. But when we look at the draft order on our handy... I'm buying Christmas presents. That's what I'm buying. Tankathon is getting charged. Got our handy tankathon.com slash NFL here

Starting point is 00:13:54 as James is looking at his Christmas buying list. I'm looking at the NFL draft order here. Oh, my God. I'm going to ask Joe for some money. The very bad teams in the NFL continue to lose. And that doesn't help at all. All the bad teams, like the top nine or ten teams, the Bengals aren't getting to the top ten.

Starting point is 00:14:16 That's like the Carolinas of the world, the Giants of the world, the Cleveland Browns of the world, the New York Jets of the world. I don't think the Bengals are getting into that conversation. I don't think those teams are going on a big run. I think that we know those teams are very bad. The Bengals currently would be picking 13th if the season were to end today. With Miami and Indianapolis losing, those two teams jump the Bengals in the draft order to 11 and 12 respectively.

Starting point is 00:14:42 Dallas winning this week keeps Dallas one pick behind the Bengals. And we talked to us San Francisco a little bit earlier. Also at 6 and 8 would be picking 15th right now, two picks behind the Bengals with a comparatively extremely strong strength of schedule. Atlanta on a four-game losing streak hasn't played their goal. game yet this week at six and seven. So we don't know how that will impact things yet, but that's the idea of where the Bengals are right now. They drop from 11 to 13 with that win in Tennessee if the season were to end today. Yeah. And we knew this was going. Again, I expected it. Now, do I expect them to go three and over the next three? No. But even if they had lost these last two,

Starting point is 00:15:25 they weren't going to jump into this top five range. There's just too many bad teams to your point. And so it is what it is. Now, what I said two weeks ago is what I stand by, either go all in one way or I'll go all in the other. Don't half-ass it now. And half-assing, it would be like finishing eight and nine. If you're going to flirt with this with being a playoff team,

Starting point is 00:15:49 get the nine and eight, get a winning record for a fourth straight year, and let's put the pressure on these other teams to handle. business and try to get into the playoffs. Don't go seven and ten or eight and nine and pick 16th and never have a real chance at the playoffs and still have a middle of the pack draft pick. I'd rather pick 19th and handle business and put yourself in position to possibly make the playoffs, if that makes sense. So we'll see, but now they've already cost themselves, as you said, a top 10 pick, fine. Now finish the job here is kind of my mindset,

Starting point is 00:16:28 whether it's realistic or not as different. But, you know, and I, of course, want the higher pick and you know how heavy will be on the draft. Our every dares know that. But as of right now, it's like, all right, well, at least give yourself a chance. That's certainly what the team is thinking. When Joe Burrow is playing,

Starting point is 00:16:45 there's a 0% chance that they're thinking about the draft position. After last year, we saw them not really thinking about their draft position without Joe Burrow playing. December football, where it becomes a topic for me is if they do drop one of their last two games, they're eliminated from the playoffs mathematically. Then the decision, you have to make these hard decisions around, well, our offensive line is really beat up. We don't know what's going on with Alex Capo. We saw him go to the blue 10 a couple times in that game against Tennessee.

Starting point is 00:17:15 Cody Ford missed a game with an illness. Hopefully he's not dealing with a severe illness and he gets back because there was a step down there. but you've got an increasingly injured offensive line. You've got Joe Burrow dealing with a knee injury this week, and he's out there playing anyway, looking mostly mobile enough, probably affected him a little bit in that game. Agreed.

Starting point is 00:17:37 So then you have to make a hard choice potentially at some point. But then you have these competing goals, like Joe Burroughs having an awesome season. He's going to want to complete his season. He's going to want to put all that on tape. He's talked about that numerous times. Jamar Chase chasing the Triple Crown. they're going to want to keep that goal going down the stretch as well.

Starting point is 00:17:54 And so while from a high level, from a big picture perspective, this season, if they're mathematically eliminated, you'd want to preserve those guys, make sure that they get to next season as healthy as possible, the Bengals probably aren't going to have that approach anyway. So you might as well try to win all the games because that's what they're going to do. Now, easier said than done, you don't just get to pick, you know, lose three, win three. We don't get to just make that choice today, and then that magically happens. And they don't get to do that either.

Starting point is 00:18:25 They still have to play the games. But you can see where these points of friction come up when you're talking about draft position, individual player goals. And then everything around this team that we've been talking about for the last few weeks, about decisions around the coaching staff and trying to figure out what players are part of the team's future are all pieces that they need to figure out too. And after that Pittsburgh game, we talked about this bounce, this late season bounce. And we started to see it against backup quarterbacks two weeks in a row where the defense has done enough or has been opportunistic enough. And the offense is still doing enough. And then the question comes up of, well, what are you buying?

Starting point is 00:19:10 Even if this team were to make it to the playoffs, I think these topics do tie together. How much confidence would they even? be with the way they've been playing. And given the answer to that question, whatever your answer to that question is, probably informs what the Bengals should do with some of these questions we've been talking about on the coaching staff and for players that may or may not be part of the team's future. We'll get into those questions to finish the show coming up next.

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Starting point is 00:20:14 at 4 p.m. Eastern. Don't miss a moment of the action. Watch the college football playoff presented by Allstate live on TNT, True TV, TBS, and Max. Jake, as far as their chances, if they got into the playoffs, I would default to, and of all these teams we talked about, so Miami, the Chargers, the Broncos, and the Coles. The scariest team for any of of these playoff teams. And I get it. People are like, oh, well, Buffalo will roll the, they will drop 1,000 points on that Bengals defense. If I'm Buffalo, if I'm Kansas City,

Starting point is 00:20:59 if I'm insert whatever playoff team that would get that, I don't want to deal with Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase and T. Higgins. I just don't. Because I do think that of all of them in a one-and-done scenario, not worried about Bo Nix. Not worried about that. Yeah, they're a good defense in Denver, but it's not, I think the Chargers,

Starting point is 00:21:18 lacking weapons, even though they got some good players and good pieces. It's to me that the Bengals would be the scariest team, but would I be confident? Would I be looking at the New Orleans flight schedule from CVG for the Super Bowl? No, I would not, to your point. I also think that the Bengals would be the scariest of the group because in a one-and-done scenario, you know, they could go hang 21 on you in the first quarter and it could just be a weird game. So I wouldn't I would never want to see Joe Burrow in a one-and-done situation. At the same time, I wouldn't be bullish on this team to make a legitimate run because we know they're flawed. And those flaws aren't going to completely change regardless of what happens over the final three weeks.

Starting point is 00:22:03 Yeah. That's the underlying point is we have seen this team win the games were crucially important. We've seen them lose a bunch of games that we called must-win games and a bunch of, like I said earlier in this show, excruciating and heartbreaking, ways. They would have some somewhat impressive wins down the stretch if they were to make the playoffs. Denver is a team that has been much better than expected this year. Pittsburgh on the road if they're playing their starters would be a win against the team that's been really good this year, especially on the defensive side of the ball. But then you get to the playoffs and while I agree that the Bengals would probably be the scariest team for any of these potential opponents in the

Starting point is 00:22:45 first round, whether that's Buffalo or Kansas City or whoever it might end up being in that hypothetical, because of Joe Burrow, because of the offense, I think those teams would also look at the Bengals and say, hey, they haven't beaten the team with a winning record until the last two games in this scenario all year. And maybe Pittsburgh's resting their starters to get there. Maybe they've only beaten the Denver Broncos and Bo Nicks for a team with a winning record, a team that succeeding expectations. And you look at the defense and the results they've had on that side of the ball that aren't really getting better, despite all the turnovers they had yesterday on Sunday.

Starting point is 00:23:19 You know, yes, you don't want to deal with Joe Burrow in the playoffs. I agree with that. But you're also probably looking at the matchup and feeling like we can handle that defense. We can do enough. Joe is going to have to be perfect.

Starting point is 00:23:32 That's how it's been for them all year. And that's how they've lost some of these really close games because he's been, you know, 98% good instead of 100% good, you know? And so, it still feels like such an uphill battle for the Bengals that, you know, we're back to talking about the playoffs this week,

Starting point is 00:23:51 but it almost feels to me like we still shouldn't be back to talking about the playoffs this week because there's still so much the same team, despite all of the good things that are happening on the offensive side of the ball with Joe Burrow and those stars. Yeah, to me it's get it to next week, like a week from now if we're saying, man, if you beat Denver, then I'll start to think about it, like actually think about the playoffs. Like, we went through the scenarios, and I just said that wouldn't be scared.

Starting point is 00:24:22 It's a flawed football team, and they're six and eight. They haven't won three straight games this year. They have to do that. And if they do that, and they get a little help on Thursday night, then maybe I can open up that door. Right now, the playoff door is still shut and beating the Cowboys and the Titans. aren't isn't changing that next week could they change that a little bit where like if that Denver game means something well then okay and and by mean something it's like all right well if you hand Denver it's second loss in a row and they need to lose three straight and you win

Starting point is 00:25:01 your fourth straight game well now now we're we're talking and so we'll see if it gets to that point until it gets there I really can't sell myself on oh well Gino Stone this, this defense making plays. You got to show me a bit more. Go force three or four turnovers against the bad Browns offense on Sunday. Go do that and earn a little, build a little equity. One big equity guy. And equity was long gone.

Starting point is 00:25:30 So we'll see if they can earn a bit of it and sweep Cleveland for the first time since 2017. That's kind of where I'm at. It's like, all right, well, beat the Browns and see maybe if the charges can help you out on Thursday. And then we might be talking about a meaningful football game in December. Meaningful, is stretching a little bit there, but it would be meaningful. That that's like a legitimately meaningful game. It's not that much of a stretch. Yes, the Bengals will need more help, but there's potentially a meaningful game there.

Starting point is 00:25:59 And there's all the other stuff we talked about, too, all the other help that they need. But then the question becomes like, are we buying anything down the stretch? And the final three games will tell us a little bit more. but I go back to that conversation we had when people were ready to get rid of Lou Anarumo and the defensive staff in that losing streak that they had before the Dallas Cowboys game and the conversation we have where I said

Starting point is 00:26:22 the only reason that I could see to do this move now is so that they don't get swept up in the late season bounce because it's coming or has a chance to arrive. And they've played some bad teams and they get another bad team this week. They still gave up 20 to the Cowboys, 27 to the Titans. I know there were some turnovers involved,

Starting point is 00:26:43 especially against the Titans, a garbage time touchdown there, but better performances against bad quarterbacks. And we've seen that from this Bengals defense all year. The question is how much do we buy? And what's going on with the Bengals offensive line is the other question for me? Like, can they get some guys back or not? Alex Kappa wasn't good in that game,

Starting point is 00:27:04 but his replacement was Andrew Stuber for the four snaps that he did not play toward the end of that game. Stuber. There's a lot of talk about Matt Lee, obviously, getting into the lineup, but the Bengals went with Andrew Stuber in that spot, probably because they see Matt Lee as a center only, plus an extra lineman in certain run sets.

Starting point is 00:27:25 But Gino Stone had a really good game, especially for those of you to look at PFF grades, and McKinley Jackson had an awesome play to force that fumble. And Miles Murphy, their pass rush win rates going around for him, had the highest pass rush rate on the team according to PFF in that game. So then we've got these questions about some of these players.

Starting point is 00:27:45 Camp Taylor Britt with the late season bounce, where he's put together a few solid games in a row. And all of these questions around players on the defensive side of the ball that will or will not be part of the future, and Louana Rumo's future, are any of these things changing with these games out of the stretch? The answer as of now is probably no, right? like Gino Stone's future is really dependent on who replaces Lou, assuming it goes to that route.

Starting point is 00:28:13 But, and here's the butt, defense plays well over the final three weeks. You look up in your 9 and 8 winning record for a fourth straight year. Maybe you sneak into the play. Like, if I'm Lou, that's my mindset. If I'm this defense, that's my mindset. Because if whether you're in a contract year, like Mike Hilton, who played well on Sunday, or your Gino Stone trying to earn year two of his contract

Starting point is 00:28:38 or your Jordan Battle or your Miles Murphy or McKinley you're either you're playing well obviously helps the team now but it's an audition for the next coach or it's going to help keep loop here like either way

Starting point is 00:28:53 you need to play well because they've been so bad or they're so young that they haven't shown what we need to see and so we'll see if these guys can continue to do it because they're still, they were charted for nine mistackles from PFF. They, you know, just basic stuff against a bad team that they didn't necessarily do.

Starting point is 00:29:15 And you're going to have to do that over the next three weeks. Cleveland is just not a fun game for them ever. Like, I don't think they just roll Cleveland this week. We'll see. Maybe they do. But they couldn't roll Tennessee and they had six turnovers. Right. So we'll see.

Starting point is 00:29:29 And the Browns apparently are reluctant right now to name. name is starting quarterback so we might be seeing another quarterback change man that that quarterback jersey just gets longer and longer has dorian thompson robinson started for them ever before he might already be on do they put the names back on if they start and then get benched and then start again he has not started this year i don't believe did he started one last year when when watson was suspended? Check it. No, he did.

Starting point is 00:30:04 Yeah, he did start last year. You're right. He started three games last year. He was one and two completed 53% of his passes. Yeah. Who was 11 for 24 against the Bengals when he, for 82 yards and two picks. But Kevin's the fan. I would much rather see DTR than James Winston, to be honest.

Starting point is 00:30:24 A lot of variance to James Winston, but a lot of turnover proclivity as well, which is where the Bengals have showed up. at least this week. So it'll be interesting. Nonetheless, we will continue to cover these topics. We didn't get very deep into the how much are we buying

Starting point is 00:30:44 about the late season performances. I wonder if Lou can do enough. I wonder. Just with the way the season went, I wonder how recency bias, as we discussed, will impact decision making down the stretch the way things

Starting point is 00:31:01 are continuing. Maybe we can discuss that on tomorrow show. Yeah, there's more time to talk about it. And I think that it becomes more relevant after some of the games down the stretch. Like I don't think the full picture exists until obviously the end of the season. But that's going to do it for this episode of the Lockdown Bengals podcast. Thanks for listening, Ho-Day, and have a good one.

Locked On Bengals - Daily Podcast On The Cincinnati Bengals - Playoffs?! Breaking down the Cincinnati Bengals' narrow path and help they need to sneak in

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