Locked On Bengals - Daily Podcast On The Cincinnati Bengals - What If... There's a Bengals’ PATH to Picking an Offensive Star in a Defense-Heavy Draft

Starting point is 00:00:00 Jeremiah Love is visiting the Cincinnati Bengals before the draft. And that means it's time for us to take a look at when it could make sense for the Bengals to draft offense early. Let's get into it. You are locked on Bengals, your daily Cincinnati Bengals podcast. Part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. What up, Bengals fans, and welcome to another episode of the Lockdown Bengals podcast. He's James Rapien. I'm Jake. Let's go. And today we are talking offense.

Starting point is 00:00:34 And look, we've constrained ourselves here. Yeah, baby. On the other side of this podcast, trench fan James Rapine, we haven't talked a whole lot about significant premium draft picks on the offensive side of the ball. And that's for good reason, right? The Bengals are desperate to improve their defense. Their offense is pretty good, really good, one might say.

Starting point is 00:01:01 And the defense has some pretty glaring issues. We've talked a lot about those issues this offseason. We've talked a lot about the guys they brought in, the moves they haven't made, and there are plenty of episodes out there if you're interested in us beating that dead horse some more. You can listen to those. But today, what if the Bengals get to the clock at pick 10 and all these defensive guys were talking about are got? What if they get to the clock in the second round at pick 41? and all of their preferred options on the defensive side of the ball aren't available.

Starting point is 00:01:36 And same could be said for the third round where I think it becomes more reasonable. Once you get to the third, fourth round, it's more reasonable to talk about offensive targets. But there's a reason, James, that in our six planned episodes for targets for each position by round, we're focusing on five defensive positions. And that's not to say that they're not going to draft offense, right? That's what we're going to talk about today, but we're not going as deep on the offensive side of the ball in our draft prep because that's what expectations are in most scenarios, but not all scenarios. And that's what we're discussing today. It's exactly right.

Starting point is 00:02:11 It's exactly right because we don't know if the Bengals big five or big six on defense is their top five or six players on their board. Right. And the dream scenario of Arvel Reese or David Bailey falling is pretty unrealistic. And what if there's a real medical concern with one of these guys? What if that guy goes anyway? What if McCoy is off their board and they don't believe that Delane is a true shutdown corner worthy of the 10th overall pick, which I think they're going to be NFL teams that certainly don't feel that way? And he probably will go on the top 10 or 15 picks.

Starting point is 00:02:46 But regardless, we can't assume that the Bengals board is identical to, within, five or six players of consensus, of expectation of any of those things when it comes to just defense. And I think that that's what's interesting. Like, what if they, they don't feel as high is good about the lane and McCoy's gone. And McCoy's the first corner taken and Downs isn't there. And Bain, they're just like, we're either not in or he goes eighth overall, ninth overall, whatever the case is.

Starting point is 00:03:21 There are plenty of mocks where these top defenders. if you don't consider both corners defenders, are top players, where it's not out of the realm to look at it and say, all right, well, if Love makes it, he's far and away the best player available.

Starting point is 00:03:41 And I think that's what this visit is, is, yeah, I think the Bengals are in on Caleb Downs, by the way. And if he's there at 10, I think he'll be in serious consideration. Nothing last week changed. is that. But what if he goes eight? What if he goes seven? What if everything that we say about

Starting point is 00:04:01 running back and value and all of those things, these teams feel as well? And they're like, I'm good on Jeremiah Love. He's really talented, but I'm good. When I think about Justin Hill talking with Jeremiah Love at Notre Dame's Pro Day, I think about the fact that now they are bringing him in for a visit. The Bengals are at least preparing themselves. for the scenario that Jeremiah Love is there at 10. Will they take him? Do they think he's that star piece? Because if he is a star, you know me.

Starting point is 00:04:35 I'm in the star business. I'm in the talent business. I want the talent. And the moment you look at it and you say, I'm going to skip this top talent for insert XYZ position, that's when you can get burned in the draft. And the Bengals certainly shouldn't be considering that possibility. They need to add a star.

Starting point is 00:04:55 If it's Caleb Downs, great. If it's a defender, even better. But Jeremiah Love is certainly possible to be on the board and be a possible candidate at 10. This is a scenario where the top 10 includes R.V.L. Reese, David Bailey, Ruben Bain, Caleb Downs, Sunny Stiles, and throw one of the quarters in, too. Like, the scenario where you have six, seven defenders go in the top nine. And really, this is picks two through nine, because we experienced.

Starting point is 00:05:23 expect number one to be Mendoza. Maybe Arizona doesn't go Maui Noah, who they've been strongly linked to, I think, at pick number three. And maybe the Titans don't go Jeremiah Love and go with the defensive player at that spot.

Starting point is 00:05:40 You might see one wide receiver, say as Cardinal Tate is the only offensive player picked in the top nine along with Francisco Mendoza. And that's it. And then the Bengals get to the clock, and all these guys that they're like, we love any of these defensive players.

Starting point is 00:05:56 Say it's any of them. And it's not even that they're out on one of them. There's not even medicals. They're not all of them. And maybe they're all picked. Then what do you do if you're the Bengals? You probably look to trade back as one option. It's probably something that they're exploring.

Starting point is 00:06:09 Does somebody want to come up for Jeremiah Love? But do they want to just stick and pick if they think Jeremiah love is that guy? I mean, that's some level of an if. Like we don't know for sure. But Tom McShay said on. Monday as the news came out that the Bengals were having the visit with Love, that he hasn't talked to a single team that had Love lower than three on their board. I don't know how big that size was for McShay,

Starting point is 00:06:34 but this guy that is seen by many as the best or second best, depending on who you ask, overall prospect in the draft regardless of position. And then it's just running back stuff. That's it. It's a weird draft at the top that are not as many blue-chip players as normal. But Love is one of them, he just so happens to play a position that isn't valued very highly by most NFL teams.

Starting point is 00:06:58 And so if you're the Bengals and you're considering picking Jeremiah, I love, you're doing your due diligence with this top 30 visit. And then you're considering how exactly does that fit work, right? You're thinking, how much can we get to who is the guy you use as the example? The greatest show on turf, Marshall Falk, was who you invoked when we talked about this a couple of weeks ago. or Jemir Gibbs or Christian McCaffrey, the guys with the significant receiving role

Starting point is 00:07:25 that are home run threats every time they touch the ball. How can you leverage that if you're the Bengals' offense? You have to have a very clear idea of like, how can we maximize this player that we're adding to rediscover, say, explosive place because this hasn't been an explosive offense for years. And that's a really good argument to make, I think,

Starting point is 00:07:41 in favor of Jeremiah Love where it says, well, now we can break off a home run when we hand the ball off. How are you going to defend T. Higgins and Jemar when we have that threat in the backfield as well, especially if they continue the progress they made in the run game as a year of an on last year. And so that's how you can see that happening.

Starting point is 00:08:00 I think it's a really narrow path, James. I do. But you do your due diligence because sometimes weird stuff happens in the draft and that's how it plays out. Yeah, it shouldn't be a narrow path. It shouldn't. All right. It just shouldn't because you just said second or third or whatever,

Starting point is 00:08:16 I guarantee you he's going to be high on the Bengals board. I don't need to call Duke or Mike or the other Mike or Katie or it doesn't matter because I sometimes you just know. And without looking, I can tell you, Jeremiah, I love is going to be really high on their board. Now, if David Bailey is there, you take David Bailey. Farvel Reese is there. You take Garvel Reese. And you hope someone's overthinking it. Is he an edge?

Starting point is 00:08:41 Is he linebacker? He's a playmaker. You get him. I think that's the scenario where. Jeremiah Love is there. Most of those defenders are gone. But maybe not all of them. And I think that's where it gets really interesting.

Starting point is 00:08:58 And when it comes to maximizing the position and having a plan, sort of sounds like we're talking about Caleb Downs a little bit as well. So let's continue the conversation. We're going to get to the other rounds in where offense could make sense. But let's talk a little bit more about Jeremiah Love coming up next. Today's show is brought to by Better Help. Financial stress is something a lot of people are carrying right now. And it's not just about the numbers.

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Starting point is 00:10:21 What if the Bengals are completely out on Rubin Bain because of his arm length, whether or not that's smart or not. He's 12th on their board because of that. Keldrick Falk is 10th on their board because of that. And Jeremiah Love is third on their board. David Bailey, fourth, Arvel Reese first. By the way, wouldn't be shocked one bit if Arvel Reese is first on their board. Sunny Stiles sixth. And what they say is, let's say Bain and Love are there.

Starting point is 00:10:51 And I get it. I understand that 99.9 of our everydayers are going to say, man, if they don't pick Ruben Bain over Jeremiah Love, I'm going to lose my mind. Fine. But if their board is the 12th player and the third player and whether it's the first player, the second player, the fourth player, the fifth, sixth, all these defenders that they were hoping to get are gone. I wonder what they would do in that scenario,

Starting point is 00:11:18 because everyone would praise them for taking Ruben Bain. Everybody. I would. You would. Everybody would. Would they go against their board enough? And I think that's the one guy that could be on the outside of their top 10 if I'm just predicting and thinking about their board because of the size concerns. Is he a is he a this? Is he a that? Where's he going to play? All of those things. Whether or not that's fair. Speculating, I don't know. But like, could there be that scenario where they're like, yeah, love is nine spots higher. Why wouldn't we take him? Like that that's the other element. here without the medicals, of course, where I could see the Bengals seriously considering a Jeremiah love. And that would obviously upset a lot of people if Ruben Bain was there and they passed on it. Yeah, it depends how close they are. Because your second guy and your ninth guy, sometimes that's the difference of, to use our grading scale. Our second guy this year is currently an 88 and a half. And the ninth guy is in 85. And the difference there is one of those players is approaching like a is in the top 10 and the other one is in the back of the top 10.

Starting point is 00:12:24 It's kind of how our grading scale works. So maybe it's, you know, if they're both, because the Bengals, they have their one A is, one B's, one C's, right? That's how we believe they've organized our draft board over the years. I'm sure they have tiers or like they stack things within each of those tiers as well. I would assume they'll have a couple of 1A guys in this scenario. So then the question is just which 1A defenders? are they passing to pick Jeremiah Love, if there are any guys in that same tier?

Starting point is 00:12:57 Say that technically, like you said, like Ruben Bain is a little bit behind Jeremiah Love on their board, but they're both 1A players. Is that a spot where they go Jeremiah Love because he's higher? Or they just stick to their 1A's and they say, okay, our tiebreaker is defensive playmaker versus offensive playmaker? Because we don't know exactly how close these guys are going to be. This is where it's just so speculative. but I think the question then becomes is which defensive players is a reasonable to say,

Starting point is 00:13:29 I'm not going to take Sonny Stiles because I want to draft Jeremiah Love. Is that reasonable? Is it reasonable to say I'm not going to draft Caleb Downs because I'm going to draft Jeremiah Love? It's a reasonable to say, I'm not going to drop Rubin Bain because I'm going to draft Jeremiah Love. Those are the big questions, I think, when you talk about, what if one of these defensive players is there? Or even two, what if it's Love, Bain, and. and downs? Or what if it's love,

Starting point is 00:13:54 Bain Downs and Stiles? And that's one of the scenarios that could play out unlikely. But like I think, yeah. Those scenarios are you taking love? No, I think they would take styles. Right.

Starting point is 00:14:09 And so I, that's what's interesting. And again, maybe not. Maybe it's Downs. Maybe Downs is fifth on their board. Maybe. Or maybe he's ninth. And he's in that one B to one C tier.

Starting point is 00:14:20 and you mentioned it. This draft doesn't have as many blue chippers. That's another argument in favor of Jeremiah I love. And that's what I think is interesting. And the irony for me is how everyone is so focused on the damn defense. And we'd spent 99% of our pre-draft season talking about the defense. And we will continue to for a good reason. And yet we just saw why you can't force a position or a side of the ball last year,

Starting point is 00:14:50 regardless of how I feel about Shamar Stewart and whether or not he'll be good. Most of our everydayers hated the pick, still hate the pick. And there's very, I'm not sure there's a safer player than Jeremiah Love. Like, he's going to be awesome. So that's what's really interesting to me. He might not be what you want from an exact position standpoint, but why wouldn't we think he's going to be awesome? Like he's going to be offensive rookie of the year.

Starting point is 00:15:19 Sorry, Fernando. you're going to be backing up Kirk Cous Cousinacrooky's in the dorkiest quarterback room in the league. But you get my point. It's like he's going to be awesome unless he goes to Tennessee and faces heavy boxes and just has no chance. Here, he, I mean, it's going to be offensive rookie of the urge of March A style, I would say.

Starting point is 00:15:38 Yeah, the other candidate would be like a receiver that lands in Kansas City if Pat Mahomes gets back healthy or whatever. Like, let's take this one mock that I just ran, Bobiever, to just to, just to, look at scenarios, right? Cardinal Tate goes nine to the Chiefs and then you have some competition, probably. But you got a good shot, you got a real good shot at offensive rookie of the year if you are Caleb Downs. They're not Caleb Downs, Jeremiah, Love.

Starting point is 00:16:04 Caleb Duns has no shot for offensive rookie of the year. No, it reminds me real quick, and then we'll move on. The plan for Caleb Downs is really interesting to me. Just like with love, like you're going to have to have a plan. hey, this is what he's going to do. This is how he's going to transform our defense. Because he's still a safety. There's still the same positional discussion.

Starting point is 00:16:27 And that also applies to Sunny Seiles as well. It does. By the way. Like these three guys that like, if positional value drives the top 10 and it styles, downs, love at 10, you have positional value issues with all those guys. Yeah. Yeah. And so that's why we pointed out.

Starting point is 00:16:46 I think they are high on styles. I'd be pretty surprised if he somehow made it to 10 if he wasn't the pick to be honest. I agree. I'm just saying like if you're talking about those three positions and you're and you're strictly objective about it, linebacker has the same positional value questions as running back. No doubt. And I would love love. I would throw a damn parade.

Starting point is 00:17:06 We'll have a mini parade on the day after the draft if that happens for sure. I will. The interesting bits, because we have talked about love. a lot because he's really the only offensive player that we talked about. Like I've talked about Mackay Lemon a little bit. And I think that there is an argument you can make for like Mackay Lemon or Carnell Tate or one of those

Starting point is 00:17:27 receivers. But it's just really hard to convince yourself that the Bengals with the investment they have a receiver would actually pick another one there. I made the argument for Mackay Lemon invoked the Tyler Boyd comparison. Was that this week? Was it last week? It was recently.

Starting point is 00:17:44 So if you want to hear us talk more about Lemon, and what we'll talk about him if they draft them. If they draft him, we'll talk about him in that episode a couple of weeks ago. You get to the second round, they too. Is there an offensive player that could make sense in the second round? If they go with one of these defensive guys in the first round. The way that the draft falls in most scenarios, I think,

Starting point is 00:18:10 is still pointing toward a defensive player in the second round, James. And let's talk about what the exceptions might be. B to that playing out on draft night to finish the show. Second, third rounds, day three of the draft coming up next. Who are you thinking about, James, when it comes to the second round? Because Jeremy, I love it's such a blatantly obvious one because he's a running back and all those things. But when you get to the second round,

Starting point is 00:18:43 is there somebody who is blatantly obvious to you? Like, yeah, if that guy falls, that probably trumps defensive positions. there's nothing that stands out and is super obvious that is jumping out the same way Jeremiah Love would jump out if you were available at 10. Like for me, it's no secret. If Love falls to 10, I'm probably dancing to the podium. What scenario is there where I'm dancing to the podium at 41? Like, there are players that I really like and that I could be excited about if they did take him. Casey Concepcion's an interesting receiver, but I don't know if I'm dancing. to the podium if he falls to 41, right? And so I think that's it.

Starting point is 00:19:26 As of today, it's tough. I'm open to offense always, but it's tough to see the scenario if it plays out any way close to all these scenarios that we've done so far, or that I could foresee where offense is really high, and there's a bunch of targets that they're going to end up having it, pick 41. Yeah, I think, let me just read some names here, right?

Starting point is 00:19:47 That went toward the end of the first round or early in the second round in this ESPN mock that I just ran, just for fun. I mentioned it earlier. Denzo Boston, wide receiver that goes toward the end of the first round. I don't know if that's a slam dunk even in the second round for the Bengals. I think that some of the offensive linemen are interesting. Max Ahina Shor, I've mentioned a few times as a potentially really exciting second round pick if he makes it all the way to 41. He went 33 in this mock that I ran.

Starting point is 00:20:19 and Blake Miller, the offensive tackle from Clemson, in the same conversation of Kaden Proctor gets all the way to 41. I think he gets interesting. Like all these off, like these actual offensive tackles that are projected to go in the one-two range, those three guys. Outside of that, like,

Starting point is 00:20:37 are any of these receivers that exciting in the second round that you're like, yeah, got to take him in the second round. You mentioned Concepcion. There could also be like a Jeremy Bernard from Alabama argument of Zach Byer Branch, from Georgia argument. that you can make if you wanted to make it, but there's not really a tight end that I'm terribly excited about taking the second round.

Starting point is 00:20:56 Eli Stowers is probably the consensus guy for that range, but not a guy that I'm interested in for the Bengals personally. And on the other side, it's like, well, what if a defensive tackle falls? What if there's a defensive tackle that doesn't fall? We just like there. What if there's a linebacker you really like there? And there's so many guys that could fit that categorization for lineback. at that point in time. What if there's a corner? We talked about DeAngelo Pons. We've talked about

Starting point is 00:21:23 Chris Johnson, who apparently has had some meetings with the Bengals, as he told, I think, Justin Mello in an article that we saw on Monday. What about an edge rusher if they don't get one in the first round? The Armason Thomas gave Akes, Cassius Howell grouping of guys, like what if one of those guys is there at 41 or even Zion Young, Christian Miller, Lee Hunter? There's so many guys on the defense side of the ball that second round doesn't feel like a sweet spot. Not to me. I think there's some tight ends in the third round that you could start to say maybe tight ends and wide receivers in the third round and maybe some interior offensive line.

Starting point is 00:22:00 I think it opens up in the third round for sure. I think considerably. Like there's way more scenarios that make it both realistic and something that I think would be less controversial at that point. And the Bengals don't care about, they won't care about that for sure. I'm not saying that because I think they care about it. I'm just saying that for the sake of no doubt. Everyone is paying attention.

Starting point is 00:22:23 But like some of those guys you mentioned like what if branch does fall to round three? Like yeah, like that would be a lot of fun. And you know, I agree with you on some of the tight ends. If Price felled around three, loves teammate, like maybe, but I don't, I think he's going to be a top 50 pick. There's a ton of running backs in this class. I think he'll go. And so, yeah.

Starting point is 00:22:45 Yeah, it is, there are very few scenarios, especially, by the way, if you did take Jeremiah Love. And I think that this is another thing the Bengals should talk about and think about. If you took love, it's not like you won't address your defense on day two. There's very few scenarios, if any, where you're not adding one, easily two defenders. If you take love, you could easily find yourself adding two defenders on day two and feel good about that. So pick 41 feels like defense and pick 72. I think it's closer to 6040, but I still lean defense that way as well.

Starting point is 00:23:23 I think that one really does open up, though, just because of the number of receivers that could be there. And that's where you are getting in the range for these. Do it all high upside tight ends. Eli Raritan is a guy that we've talked about a little bit. He has a range. ESPN has him at 66th in their simulator right now. Yeah, I think round three makes sense.

Starting point is 00:23:44 Like, I think that's where it'd be. But I've seen it anywhere from three to five or six for Verdon. And there's similar ranges for a bunch of tight ends. We've talked about Max Claire. I think there's one other Oscar Delph we talked about in the fourth round recently. So like third, fourth round, tight end, certainly interesting. But at the same time, and also interior offensive line, like Logan Jones is there in that range. There's a couple of other interior offensive linemen, I think, in that range a lot of the time.

Starting point is 00:24:17 But there's also like a lot of corners in the third round. If they do feel like they want to go defense, defense in the second and third round, depending on what they do in the first, a lot of corners, slot corner, Chandler Rivers will be there in the second round or in the third round. Most likely, that's probably the range for some of these slot defenders like Tritton and Stukes from Arizona as well. Could be a spot for a safety as well if they wanted to go safety at that point, like a, a Jalen Kilgore safety slot type. So it opens up quite a bit in round three, round four for the potential for offensive guys

Starting point is 00:24:52 to make more sense to me than the second round. Like in the first round, I think it's love in that scenario where they don't feel like the defender is worth it. And the second round, I think, is probably defense in most scenarios. Watch them surprise us now. And the third round, fourth round, I think it's pretty wide open.

Starting point is 00:25:09 Yeah. So if we play it out, what, 10%, 5% at 10, 5%. Yeah, pretty low. Right? Because love isn't going to fall. Exactly. Like the biggest part of this is you would expect love to be picked. If he's third on so many, third or higher on so many NFL teams boards.

Starting point is 00:25:31 And maybe these teams ever think it, right? It's why I haven't ruled out the scenario of styles as well, because I think he'll be high on a lot of teams boards. And then round two, it opens up a little, but it can't open up that one. Maybe it's 15%. Then round three, it's like 60, 40. And then round four, I think now you're coin flip, coin flip central, the rest of the way where it just opens wide out. And part of it is where the talent is.

Starting point is 00:25:58 Like, it just fits. Like, there's not a receiver. Like, you could sell me on Carnal State. You could, but it's not like jumping off at me where like it's, there's no Brock Bowers. There's no Tyler Warren. Like there's no Colson Loveland. There's no guy like that. Obviously those are all tight ends.

Starting point is 00:26:14 But guy where I'm like, oh, well, if he's there. Like there's no Devante Smith to me where it would be like, oh, well, that would make sense. Or Jalen Waddle, for example, where I could sell you on, man, look at that speedster and what he would do alongside Jammar and T. I just don't, I don't really see that. Not early. Not the first round. I almost think that it's more likely that, I mean, I think I agree with you, but you could sell me on. the idea that offense is almost more likely in the first run than the second round,

Starting point is 00:26:42 just because of where the talent falls. And that's what's tough is how does the board. But I think I agree because there's going to be a corner there. There's going to be multiple pass rushers. There's so many positions. Yeah. Yeah. Like literally any position on defense of Bengals could watch a draft.

Starting point is 00:26:57 They will probably have the choice of several of those guys in the second round. Like they could realistically have Caleb Banks, Jake Golda, Jacob Rodriguez, and Chris Johnson, all there at 41. I'm just going on. And your second round safety of choice as well. Sure. And so it's like, all right, whoever. Do you want your defensive tackle?

Starting point is 00:27:19 Is it worth the risk there? Do you want the linebacker? Do you want this or that? Like, it's tough. So I agree with you. And to end this, let's go, Jeremiah, love, brother. I hope you like those stripes. I hope you like those stripes.

Starting point is 00:27:34 I hope you like Skyline and Grady. I just, I mean, it's not, it's obviously not Jeremiah Love or bust, but it's not like I'm upset if they pick Jeremiah Love, depending on who they pass on. What is that music? Jeremiah Love. That's not his music. I don't think that's true. That's just the parade music.

Starting point is 00:28:01 Jeremiah. James is going to break into song, and I don't think that's good for. anyone we'll wrap up there for this episode of the lockdown bengals podcast we've got mike runner for our next episode going to ask mike who he thinks is available at 10 where does he ask him about jeremiah love will go that's next on locked on bengals until then thanks for listening whoday and have a good one

Locked On Bengals - Daily Podcast On The Cincinnati Bengals - What If... There's a Bengals’ PATH to Picking an Offensive Star in a Defense-Heavy Draft

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