Why the Bengals roster might be UNDERRATED | A simple "return to average" would be a big boost
00:00Do the Cincinnati Bengals suddenly have a bottom half of the NFL roster?I'm not quite buying it.Let's break it down.You are locked on Bengals, your daily Cincinnati Bengals podcast.Part of the Locked On Podcast Network, your team every day.What up Bengals fans and welcome to another episode of the Lockdown Bengals podcast on theLockdown Podcast Network, your team every day.I'm Jake Liscoe.
00:31He's James Rapine.We've been covering the Cincinnati Bengals here on Lockdown Bengals since 26.So if you're looking for the place for all of the latest news and analysis on the Cincinnati Bengals,you are in the right place.So everydayers who make Lockdown Bengals part of their routine already know that.We appreciate those great listening habits.You can join those everydayers by hitting the subscribe button on YouTube or wherever you get your podcast and make sure you don't miss an episode of Lockdown Bengals.You can even go so far as to take the stuff to be one of those that makes Lockdown Bengals their first listen and join those folks.
01:06with another great listening habit.Today we dive into the claim from Pro Football Focus Jamesthat the Cincinnati Bengals have a bottom half of the NFL roster.PFF sees it as the Bengals roster has fallen off precipitously from 2024when they had the Bengals ranked as the seventh best roster in the league.Now they see it as 18th best.And in addition to that conversation, we get into what the quote-unquote long-term future looks like.for the Cincinnati Bengals.
01:37And in my opinion, the NFL long term is about one year.So we're talking 2026 when we talk long term.We'll get there a little bit later.Let's start with this idea that the Bengals have a bottom half of the league roster,18th, according to PFF.Yeah, and behind teams like the Falcons, like the Bears, like the Cowboys,all teams that I think Bengals fans, certainly most listening and watching,would have ahead of.
02:06those teams would have the Bengals ahead of those teams. I'm not buying it either. And the reason why I thinkwhen you look at the Bengals, and it's a top heavy roster, and I think we'll agree there,but the top is awesome. Best receiver on the planet. One of the best number two, certainly numbertwo wide receivers in the league, maybe the best number two wide receiver in the league. I buriedthe lead with the quarterback who you could argue, and depending on where you look,or what you look, that he's as good as anyone at quarterback on the planet,ahead of Patrick Mahomes, right there with any of these guys from Lamar Jackson to JoshIsland to whoever you think is the best quarterback in the league.
02:47The point is, is they have one of those dudes.And so when you're talking about that trio and the NFL sack leader, which PFF did thatwith Trey Hendrickson on the roster, and he is on the roster, so we're going to count him.It's a heck of a place to start.and I'm not putting the Falcons ahead of them.I'm not putting the teams that have serious questions, put it at quarterback,unless they're so complete that they can overcome it.And I don't feel like the Cowboys are that or the Falcons are that or the Bears are that.
03:26And so, yeah, they're too low.It's just they are too low.And I get it.I know why PFF did it.They're going to say all of these ifs.questions and there are Ips and questions and I've both of us I think have been very clear aboutour frustration with what the Bengals haven't done this offseason to address specific areas and evenwith that said they're still have a chance to be really really really good because of those
03:52top top players that they have on their roster yeah I don't think anyone's writing off the seasonor saying you know the Bengals are going to be on the outside of the playoffs looking in at least noton this podcast there's obviously a possibility that happens there's aa possibility that what they've done to try to fix the defense, the Al Golden higher, the defensiveadditions in the draft, there's a possibility those things just don't hit. They don't work out,but what's interesting about this is take, for example, the Pittsburgh Steelers. The PittsburghSteelers are below the Bengals in these rankings at 22, 21, and that is with a pretty stackdefense. And I know they lost a wide receiver. They add D.K. Metcalfe, so they have some questions of
04:34wide receiver. Pat Firemouth is a good tight end. Zach Frazier was great as a rookie. IsaacSay Malo is still good at left guard. Troy Fatanu, solid PFF score for his rookie year.And for the most part, they really like the defense at PFF, especially the front. And soif Pittsburgh is behind Cincinnati and they have a roster that on defense especially, youwould say is better than Cincinnati's, then I guess I'm just confused about.the methodology here because the Bengals do have those bona fides they have JoeBurrow Jamar Chase T. Higgins and you add to that on the defensive side,Trey Hendrickson for your stars your collection of stars right and then you have solid players
05:19to above solid players good players in Chase Brown in Mike Kisicki in Logan Wilsonin BJ Hill and then I get that there are questions but the roster islargely the same.Like Mike Hilton's gone.Sheldon Rankin is no longer with the Bengals,and there's a new right guard.For now, they're still penciling in Cordell-Vos and the left guard.So there's a new right guard.
05:45Alex Kappa is no longer with the Bengals.But we've complained that the Bengals didn't turn over their roster enough, right?That it was largely the same team.And largely the same team last year for PFF was 7th.And this year it's 18th,even though Joe Burrough is coming off his best year,and Jamar Chase is coming off a triple crown.And like the stars were the stars.
06:11And so like you dig into it a little bit,and you look at the grades and you can start to piece together,okay, maybe this is why PFF puts them thereis because there's not a single offensive linemanbesides Ted Karras, who cracks a 60.Joe Brown playing hurt last year comes in at a 58,Amarius Mims going through some rookie growing painsat a 57.8.
06:35Cordell-Wulson grading higher than both of them at 59.3.I don't think anyone that watched the Bengalsthinks Cordell-Vosom was better than those guys last year.Daxhill, Geno Stone, Cam Taylor, Britt,DJ Turner, all those guys in the secondaries in the 50s and 60swhere fair, a lot of questions with all of those guys.But I feel like 18 is assuming that all of them hit the low endof their range of outcomes, right?
06:59There's no, like, Dax Hill takes a step,is healthy for a year.DJ Turner is healthy for the whole yearand he's a solid corner.Cam Taylor Britt bounces back to,you know,closer to a 70 than a 60.And so like,
07:12if you take the middle path somewhere in there,there's still questions.For sure,there's still questions.But I have a hard time seeing howlargely the same rosterwith a few changesis 11 spots worse
07:28than a year.And especially,I mean,did the Bengals beat the Broncos at Paycor like five times in one game did they they did rightyes yeah okay they did I was wait the Broncos are nine thought it was rhetorical sorry it wasbut I the Broncos are nice and I I look you could say oh well and I'm sure by the way if you wantBroncos breakdown check out locked on Broncos but the point is I don't think that they're ninespots ahead of the Bengals and someone's got to be 18th and fine
08:02You described it pretty well.Low range of outcomes.This is one of the lowest range of outcomes for this Bengals roster.This isn't overall outlook for the next five years.This isn't what does it mean if Trey Hendrickson isn't on the team or if the Bengals don't keep this guy or if no, it's what their roster is.I look at their roster and yeah, it's top heavy.Yeah, I wish they would have added multiple veterans.But they're better in certain areas.
08:31they are better in certain areas.They're deeper in some areas.And the coaching, I'm not sure the coaching part of it can get worse.I think there's a lot of pressure on these coaches, but I think we're seeing very clearlyhow Zach Taylor and the rest of the organization thought about some of the coaches thatwere on the staff by the end of last year.So this path where Healthy Joe and Jamar and T and Trey and Al Golden,and where these guys are 18th in the league from a roster talent standpoint,
09:07I just, I don't see it.I think it's, it would take a lot, a lot of things to go wrong for that to be the case.Now, they're not top seven, but I certainly don't think that they're 18th.And that element of it is pretty off.I would expect them to be top 12.If they do this in December, I would expect the Bengals to be top 12.in the roster ranking for sure.I would, well, let's circle back to this in just a second
09:37and talk about where we think would be fairbecause it's not like we thought the Cincinnati Bengalsgot much better in spots.When we just talked about that,it was what, two weeks ago, three weeks ago,we talked about where the Bengals got actually betterand where there are all these questions.And we've talked about with Joe Goodberry,
09:54a couple of episodes again, two, three weeks agoabout how the Bengals can get better.but let's talk about a little bit more where we think they should be in these rankingsbefore we dive into a bit of a longer term view coming up next ever check your bank accountand wonder where did all my money go i've done that and whether it's dining out online shoppingentertainment it's easy to lose track right now we are in the thick of like birthday monthslash holiday month because we had mother-in-law's birthday my mom's birthday uh father-in-law'sbirthday, my dad's birthday, father's day, Mother's Day, all these things. My wife's birthday,
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11:08to get 50% off your first year.That's monarchmoney.com co-locked on NFL for half off your first year.I can already hear people in the YouTube comments, James, telling us about how we've beencomplaining about this roster, complaining about the moves they didn't make.And what do you mean it's the top 12 roster?You guys are gassing up this team and they didn't do enough.I didn't.That is true.
11:35And it's just, it might be, might even be a nitpick.Like maybe they're really close.And it probably is.Maybe it's really close for PFF between teams like 13 to 20.Maybe it's just really, really close.And the Bengals maybe should be closer to, you know, 14.You said 12 if they do this in a while.Maybe that's where this ends up.
11:59But I do think that just, I don't know,something about bottom half of the league for this teamwith the talent that's on the teamreally feels like there's like an overcorrection here.There's an overcorrection for last year thinking like,ah, yeah, the defense, Luana Rumo,we like what they've done in the past.They should be able to put that together again,
12:22even if we have some questions there.There's a bit of an overcorrection that says like,Orlando Brown's like he's regressing.Look at how he played last year,which maybe ignores that he was hurt.Maybe they don't think, you know,he was good last year until he got her.Yeah, but that's what I mean.
12:37Like if they're just ignoring that he was hurtand just looking at his grade, right,which wouldn't surprise me if that's the way this came together.It's hard to cover all 32 NFL teams.And PFF leans heavily on their grades to do that.Looking at a Mario Smith,looking at Cody Ford,looking at, you know, penciling in Cordell-Volson as a starter right now,
12:56And maybe they don't get better than those guys last year.Maybe they're the same offensive line that has all those issues.But again, to me, it feels a bit like an overcorrection.And when you still have the performance they had last year that included a really strong conclusion to the season.And some regression to the mean regression to average that you might expect on defense,that should at least get into the top half of the league in my mind.Like, I don't think that the Bengals are looking at, like, bottom, yeah, I don't know.Bottom half of the league just feels wrong.
13:35Way wrong.And it feels wrong because in December, like in December, realistically, you could say best quarterback in the league, best receiver in the league, one of the best past rushers in the league.Now, that's the high range.And if those things happen, they're going to be in the top 10.And you could argue they had that last year.And they were still not great.You can't argue that, though.Joe wasn't the best quarterback in the league last year.
13:59Like, I get it, but he wasn't.Like, Josh Allen won MVP.Lamar, they beat the Bengals head-to-head twice.Again, I get it.There's going to be a penalty here, this, or that.It wasn't Joe's fault.Fine, but it matters.So, like, there's a scenario where that is.
14:17And I agree, maybe numbers-wise, it's similar.But it could be tweaked enough where you're saying Joe is,the numbers are similar and he's the front runner for mbp like that stuff happens all the timebecause of the the perception you know when you're you're four and eight after the the firstgame of december and and you get crushed uh defensively and you just can't beatpittsburgh at home well that's that's rough but did anyone want to play them in the playoffsthe answer was no like that was a real thing that that was discussed in nfl circles and not justspeculated on here. Flaws in all, they're still scary. You still don't want to deal with
15:01them. And so that's, that's where it comes. Like head to head against the Falcons,there's not many times when you're going to say a healthy Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase and T. Higginsaren't going to go beat the Falcons. Sorry. It's just, it's, it's realistic. And that's why tophalf, that's fine. If you want to put them 12th, 14th, whatever, but 18th is low.And if, by the way, if in December we're talking about them being the 18th best roster in the league,then we're going to be pointing to everything that we've said about how they needed to add.And Joe can't take the hits that he's been taking and that they're going to have to find a way to be much better on the interior of both lines,to one, be better against the run and get pressure on the passer in the other way, be a more efficient, more capable running team,
15:54especially in short yardage situations.Like all these things, all of these flaws,it's because they'll be magnifiedand there'll be so, such big issuesthat Joe Burrow, Jamar Chase T. Higgins,T. Hedrickson, that these guys can't overcome him.And maybe it's as simple as Tray's contract stuffgets in the way, messes with him all season long.
16:14You never know.But if those guys, if you're throwing out the ballare going up to Clevelandand going out for the coin toss,and it's Joe Jammar and T and T.and T. And T. And T. And Tray Hendrickson's dialed in. You feel pretty good, even with Miles Garrett and Mason Graham and all those guys on the other side. And that's going to feel that way for all the games. If you start with, if that's your starting point. And that would be what the Bengals, I think internally, when they hear us and they hear all these people criticizing them, that's probably what they are saying. I don't love it. But it still is true. And so when you rank them, I think they're a bit low here.Yeah, they could have done more. That is true.This still feels a bit low because of all the things we've just mentioned.
17:00I would say the other big thing that if we look at this in a few months, the end of the year, I guess six months,and we're saying, yeah, this Bengals roster is exactly what everyone said it was going to be.It's the 18th best or worse, maybe.You know, who knows?We'll be talking a lot about the failure to develop because there are talented players on the team that they haven't gotten thatlevel of play from. And Amariousman taking a big step is a part of that. Not that he was badas a rookie, but he taking a big step on offense would be a big part of that. We just talkedabout Andre Yosevaush. We talked about Jermaine Burton, those guys taking a third and second
17:38year step and staying on the field in Jermaine Burton's case. Those things matter. And thenour defense, this whole thing is around we think we have more talented players than we've seenthem produce. Yep. And we're going to change a coaching staff.So if Dax Hill and DJ Turner and Cam Taylor Britt and these rookie linebackers and Shamar Stewart and Joseph Osai and Miles Murphy are the same players and Chris Jenkins and McKinley Jackson and those guys, none of them get better and a lot of young players in that list, then, yeah, the Bengals don't have a good roster.And that's possible.It's possible that they're just not as talented as we think they are and that they were all overdrafted and that or and or, you know, that the.development so far has set them back and has set them up for failure at this point.But if we're talking about this roster being that bad, then that means that you're probably
18:35talking about a coaching staff overhaul too because all of your coaching changes didn't workand all of these things.So there's a lot at stake, obviously, on this season.And, you know, that's just not when you're talking about if we're talking about them being 18thlater that's the things that come to mind for me is there's there's a lot of failure thishappened to get to that point yeah oh no doubt look in the mirror firings changes all of theabove that that that's what that would be you cannot miss the playoffs for a third consecutive yearand you have joe burrow let's just say joe's playing at the level that he played out last year
19:16or maybe even a little less can't do it he can't do it i mean he saidfranchise records last year as I knocked my water over set franchise records last year it's you justcan't do it so and by the way I would bet that that doesn't happen I think last year was kind of thethe worst case scenario with those guys playing at that level when I talk about range of outcomesand I think the Bengals are banking on that too we'll see if they're right they could have takenother steps to build contingencies and that's where you can see both sides of this rightas we've said, they could have done more.They could have done things that would force BFF to put them higher,
19:58but also this feels like it's once again betting on a repeat of the low end of the range of outcomes.Let's finish the show by talking about the quote,long-term future.This was a question from a mailbag a few weeks ago that we wanted to circle back to.We'll do that coming up next.Long-term outlook says what, five straight Super Bowls,four wins, one narrow loss.What do you think, Jake?
20:25I mean, it sounds good to me.That sounds like it's good for business, you know?Let's do it.Why not?It would be good for a lot of things.Yeah.Great, great for the Bengals.Great for a bunch of Hall of Fame cases.
20:41You'd have a surge of Hall of Famers from the Cincinnati Bengals in 20 years or howeverlong it takes, 15 years.20.Well, because they're going to keep playing too, right?And so like if they go to five straight Super Bowls,they better retire Joe's number mid-game.While he's still playing, Joe, sorry, you can't wear your number anymore.We got to retire.
21:03No, we retire it.They're like, hey, we are retiring it.Yeah.But Joe, you could still wear it for the first time in NFL history.Look at that.So the question that came in was a listener wanted to know what we see is a long-termoutlook for the team.To find by this person is four to five seasons, which you can't actually do in the
21:24NFL. No. So that's, that's like three heiress. This listener thinks it doesn't look very good today.A couple guys on offense are locked up, a bunch of unproving guys on defense with a future still in the air.Is there a soft rebuild coming? And I think the way I think about this question is I think at most you canthink about two years into the future in the NFL. But practically, you're mostly thinking about one yearinto the future. You talk four or five years into the future there's like Joe Burrow,Jamar Chase under contract. I guess C. Higgins too. And that's it. The guys just aren't undercontract that far into the future. You're talking about especially five seasons, you're going to haveyour first round pick maybe on an option. Well, five seasons from now, nobody's under contract
22:12anymore. So when you think about the long term outlook, the first thing that comes to mindto me, James, is a question that we were asking last year around this time, like, who aregoing to pay? But we were asking, why aren't they paying T. Higgins? Why are they just gettingthe deal done with Jammar Chase? Why aren't they spending money? Because the question was,when we looked into the future, who are they going to pay? And that's where I start. Because lastyear when we looked forward, it was not obvious at all that there were extensions coming. And I wouldsay that right now, it's pretty similar. When you look at your route, and you think about who arethe guys that are going to be the next building blocks, the next extension guys on this team,
22:50I think the question is right that there are a lot of unproven guysthat would need to earn that extension this year.Yeah, I think, I mean, a ton of guys.You know, if you want to start, let's start on offense.I think Orlando Brown Jr. this year, let's say he stays healthy.He has two years left on his deal.He's someone that is going to be looking at an extension.Amarius Mims is two years away, so you're not thinking about that.
23:20I've mentioned a few times just Ted Karris say, well, one more year, or do they go the other way?And do they see what Matt Lee can do and what some of these other guys can do long term?On defense, though, the one guy that really stands out to me is Dax Hill.The front office clearly, clearly, clearly holds him in high regard.They picked up his fifth year option.He's going to be on the roster next year.Do you just cross that bridge now?or do you cross that bridge next off season?
23:51Maybe that's what they do.But I do think that he's probably more likely now than last year, and that's the one.But there aren't many.Tyson Anderson, I could see as a special teamer.I wonder if they do try to do something with him at some point as he goes into the finalyear of his deal.But there's just not many that jump out at you.Cam Taylor Brits in the final year of his deal, you're going to make him play that out.
24:17And so there's just there aren't many.You're right.And I think that that's, that's scary.And what you hope is that Miles Murphy is in that discussion eight months from now, that guys like that.But as of now, Joseph Osai, obviously, who signed a one year deal.But as of now, there just aren't many guys like that that you could say, that's why I led with Orlando and Ted.Because there's just not many guys.You're like, yeah, will they get ahead of it?
24:47Yeah, maybe with Tyson Anderson as a special teamer.But I don't think that there are a lot of guys that fit that bill today.There's one that I think you're forgetting that I think as soon as I say it,you're going to be like, oh, yeah, of course.But it's actually not super clear cut, but it's Chase Brown.Chase Brown will be extension eligible after 2025.That'll be his third year.We'll see.
25:09And he's just had a lot of work.Like, do they, do they know that?That's why it's complicated.But he will be extension eligible, as well, Andre Yosevash, or those guys.that they would like to get ahead of it on and get deals on early.Some guys that they've paid running backs, they just paid Joe Mixing.If Chase Brown goes out there and plays at a high level again,and Andre Yoseva shows that he's a reliable wide receiver three or those deals that they want to get ahead of.
25:34Those are some young guys.When you look out to guys that would be free agents in 2027, Dax Hill also will be a free agent in 2027.Also DJ Turner, if he has another good year.So like if Dax has a good year, DJ Turner has a good year, heck, even Jordan Battle, Chase Brown, Miles Murphy, Andre Yosovash, like all of those young guys, those are players that would be extension eligible.I'm not saying they're going to sign all of those guys as soon as they're eligible for extensions after their third year.That's something that we've asked the Bengals to do more of.We might be talking about those guys.But those are the guys that I think when you think about long-term future, those are the guys in the conversation right now in my head.
26:15In addition to, obviously, Cam Taylor Britt, to some extent, Cam Sample, if he has a good bounceback year from that injury, that's another one that I'd throw out.But those are the guys that are youngish that could see new contracts.Do you think that they would pay Andre with T and Jemar making what they're making?Depends on what he's looking for, right?Like if he's looking for mid-receiver money, 10, 12, they probably don't, right?they probably say we'll replace that in the draft.We can't afford to put more money at that position.But I do think that would depend significantly on what kind of number he thinks he
26:54goes out and has, yeah, if he goes out and has like 700 yards this year and eight touchdowns,let's just say.Like whole one double digit millions.Yeah, that gets to what is that, eight digits.That gets to eight digits on the open market for sure.Now, if he's six million, well, then, yeah, I don't.Andre's great to have a rent. So I agree. I think it's interesting. The Chase Brown one is he's 25. He's super reliable. Has had a couple injuries, but super reliable, played a ton last year. Do they go that route or not? Because they haven't, they haven't valued running back. You've seen that. But I think this year, there were scenarios where they would have taken running back earlier, ended up getting Tash Brooks. And they've seen what it's like when you can have guys that fit and you know Chase fits.So maybe, maybe you could see that.
27:46Hopefully he has a big year.I think there are a lot of people excited about Chase Brown.And that's what this year really is about is by mid-year, going back to the PFF conversation,if Chase Brown is a top 10 running back in the league,or Andre Yosevash is one of the best number three receivers in the NFL,and some of these defensive players step up.And you're talking about them being extension, like true extension,not just candidates, but contenders.
28:11worthy of extensions.Guys,and we're going to sit here and saythe Bengals should prioritizeextending these guysas early as possible,i.e. next offseason.Can't let Miles Murphy go.
28:23Dax Hill,there's no way they should let him playon the fifth year option.Cam Taylor, Britt,the juice is back, baby.He's awesome and better than ever.Like, DJ Turner has put it all together.We'll see.
28:35You need some of those statements to be true.And it's a big year for that.And that's whyI think they felt like they needed to make the moves they did coaching-wise.I think that's the most interesting thing when you talk about the Bengals' long-term futureis we're looking at all of these guys we just mentioned,all of these highly invested draft picks,especially on the defensive side of the ball.
28:59I know Andreosovac is a late-rounder that we're talking about here,Chase Brown, late-rider.But on the defensive side of the ball,we're talking about high-end draft picksthat the Bengals brought in for Luena Rumoto keep that deep.defense going. And they didn't keep that defense going with Luena Rima. So we're talking about AlGolden restoring that defense, getting enough out of these guys with his various position coaches,
29:21with the players themselves, and it's not just the coaches. If these guys don't work out, it's notjust on the coaches. It will never be just on the coaches. It's never that simple. Butobviously, there's a big part in what the Bengals are telling us is that they think that thecoaching staff needs to do a better job of developing. And so write all those.names down and in six months we'll go back through a list on the Bengals buy week which I was justlooking at and say okay which of these guys are we saying yep extend extend it didn't work outnot worthy of an extension and that is what dictates the long-term future those questions andobviously the younger guys than that too because those guys are under team control but when you're
30:06talking about the decisions that they have to make are these guys second contract guys forthis team with our projected $60 million in salary cap space for 2026 and $120 millionin salary cap space, which will be more, I think, than both of those numbers in 2027.Those are the questions that need to be answered.Will Drew Sample plays by end up another contract?All questions that we need to answer, Jake.All questions we need to answer.Look, man, I want to talk about Cam Grandi, but we're out of time.
30:36That's a-and-y's what you're going to say, Dandy Grandi?of the Lockdown Bengals podcast.We've got mandatory minicamp this week.We'll hear from various Bengals coaches.We'll hear from Joe Burrow.At least that is the plan.So until next time, that's going to do it for this episode of the Lockdown Bengals podcast.Ho day.
30:57And have a good one.
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