Locked On Cardinals - Daily Podcast On The St. Louis Cardinals - Arenado Says No To A Deal With Houston

Starting point is 00:00:00 Nolan Aronado says no to the Houston Astros and did the Cody Bellinger trade give us any insight into what the Cardinals might be getting in return in a Nolan Aronado deal. This is Locked on Cardinals. You are Locked on Cardinals, your daily St. Louis Cardinals podcast, part of the Locked on Podcasts network, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. Hey there, Cardinals. I'm Jady Haffern and I'm your host for Locked on Cardinals, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network covering your team every day. You can follow me on Twitter X at JD Sports Radio. You can also follow the podcast at L.O underscore Cardinals. I want to thank those of you who make Locktown Cardinals first listen every day. We're free and available wherever you get your podcast.

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Starting point is 00:01:17 So the trade wins continue to blow and none of them have involved the St. Louis Cardinals. Yet, yet. We did find out today that Nolan Aronado has decided that he will not waive his no trade clause for a deal to the Houston Astros. This was news that just broke just a little bit ago. John Denton, Mark Feinstand, and there was another writer with MLB.com, but you know, all kind of putting it together as a group. According to sources, the Cardinals were willing to send $15 to $20 million to the Astros as part of the deal to help pay down Aronado salary. The money the Cardinals were willing to include would have brought the Astros commitment down to roughly $40 to $45 million

Starting point is 00:02:01 dollars over three years. A source said that there will still, there was still ongoing talks between the clubs, though another source indicates that the Astros aren't holding out much hope that a deal will get done. And I've said on numerous occasions, we've talked about it a lot recently, about different places that Aronado could end up,

Starting point is 00:02:20 which places seem like good fits. And it was strange to me that Nolan Arnado did not have the Houston Astros on the reported trade list, the teams that he would be interested in going to. And this is just more of him putting his foot down in showing how difficult this might be by turning down a possible deal to the Astros. Doesn't want to go there. A source says it's definitely not close. President of Baseball Operations, John Moseilock ads.

Starting point is 00:02:49 All I can say is that we were in talks with multiple teams and we still are, but I have nothing pending. We're still working on a lot of things and hopefully we have clarity as we get into the new year. If you remember, he was pretty honest about a timetable here about not getting anything done at the winter meetings involving Nolan Aronado. But there was some hope that, you know, maybe they get something done before Christmas. But that seems doubtful being that today is the 18th, not a whole lot of time left. And, you know, people are going to start moving on in life for the holidays and whatnot. So no Houston. Apparently, leave your thoughts in the comments section about your feelings towards this.

Starting point is 00:03:27 but it's not shocking when you think about his list in the reporting that was done by John Dittenden, and there were six teams that he said, yeah, I'm cool with going to. Houston is not on that list. The Yankees were not on that list. So I would assume that he doesn't want to go to the New York Yankees, although he had the Mets on that list. So, you know, if that's indeed, there's no ground for movement, and those are the six you got to work with.

Starting point is 00:03:54 That's kind of tough. That's kind of tough when that's all you got. Now, when talking about a deal about Nolan Aronado, one of the newest deals that happened in Major League Baseball may or may not have given us some insight on the market for Nolan Aronado. The Cubs made that deal with the Astros for Kyle Tucker already. And we had heard that, you know, it was it was Bellinger and Sayo Suzuki. We're going to be on the block for Chicago. But the information that was out there was that Bellinger was the likely person to get moved. And then you just saw it.

Starting point is 00:04:26 He got shipped to the New York Yankees. The deal was Bellinger and $5 million dollars going to New York for Cody Potee. Who? Exactly. Exactly. I mean, come on. Who doesn't know Cody Pote? Come on.

Starting point is 00:04:41 You got him on your fantasy team, right? You got his baseball card. 30-year-old, right-handed pitcher with a whopping 24 games and 83 innings of Major League Experience. You know Cody Potee. He's your man. You got that jersey in your closet, don't you? No. Not. I mean, come on. Sounds like a really good deal, right? Cody Pote. And you got to give up money for a former rookie of a year in NLMVP who as recently is 2023 got MVP votes.

Starting point is 00:05:13 When is second silver slugger in 2023? Obviously, it's a crappy deal. It sounds like a crappy deal because it is a crappy baseball deal. Where it works is the five. financial reasons for it all for the Cubs. You know, Bellinger had two years, $52.5 million left on his three-year deal with Chicago. Opt-outs following each season. He had already exercised that very expensive $27.5 million option in November so he could stay with the Cubs and has another player option for 2026 at $25 million and a $5 million buyout. So it made sense for him to exercise this. Now, how does this relate to what the cardals are going through? and with Nolan Aronado. We know Aronado's on the trade block. He's got the no trade clause, which he has exercised, as we know, by not accepting a deal to the Houston Astros.

Starting point is 00:06:07 But the other teams, the Dodgers, the Padres, the Angels, Mets, Red Sox, and Phillies. Those are the names of the teams that he apparently would be interested in going to. Once again, courtesy of John Denton. It doesn't seem like there's a great fit in L.A. anymore. It doesn't seem like the Dodgers are going to be interested in him. But all the other teams, yeah, there's still some space there, you know. Not willing to go to Houston now. So we got confirmation on that.

Starting point is 00:06:38 Some of the reasons why this might be a little more difficult. Nolan is older than Belly, has three years remaining on his current deal, and has seen his offensive production decline the last two seasons. Now, Belly did have that comeback season in 2023, perhaps motivated by the Dodgers moving on from him. He was very good that season, you know? It sucked going up against him. Last year, though, things slipped back closer to mediocrity for Cody Bellinger,

Starting point is 00:07:04 similar to where Aonado's production is right now. We know that the Cardinals are going to have to eat some sort of salary to move Nato, if and when he's traded to one of those teams, just like the Cubs had to do with Cody Bellinger. And to see that the only thing that the Cubs got to return for him, no offense to Potee, but is Coach? friggin poit. That's it. And this is a fear among fans is that, is this what the Cardinals are going to get for Aronado? Because that is not even in the comprehension of a normal Cardinals

Starting point is 00:07:40 fan right now. Now some people like everydayers who have heard me talk about this and have tried to warn you that it may not be the level of return. that we are looking for. We're going to get into it a little more because my guy Thomas Gauvain over at Redbirdrance.com was a little under weather this week so he couldn't join us. But he kind of broke things down a little bit further

Starting point is 00:08:06 to make sure you know, you knew exactly why it would be this way for Aranado and why you shouldn't get your hopes up that you're going to get some kind of amazing prospects in return. But it could disappoint some fans. So we're going to get into that next. Essentially, he thinks to the disappointment of fans that this could be a glimpse into the return for Aronado. So I'll share his thoughts with you coming up next on Lockdown Cardinals.

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Starting point is 00:10:12 always welcome and encourage. We're going to answer some of your questions a little bit later in today's episode. But we're talking about the possible return for the future Hall of Famer Nolan Arnado and why it may not be exactly what Cardinals fans are hoping for because we see Nolan Arnato as a star, right? You see him as a star. You look at all the platinum and gold gloves the man has over the years, the Silver Slugger Awards. You look at his production and this body of work and this resume and you're like, superstar, right? One of the best to ever do it. So how on earth? How on earth are the cardal's going to get lowballed here? If and when they make a

Starting point is 00:10:54 deal. Well, as Thomas points out in his article at Redbirdr grants.com, when comparing things to the deal with Cody Bellinger. You've got Aronado, who is four years older than belly. And he's more costly over a longer period of time. His OPS Plus, 108 in 2023 and 101 in 2024, according to baseball reference, which is just a tad above league average. It's not that good. And his defense, granted, he was a gold glove finalist this past year.

Starting point is 00:11:23 It has slipped with age, which is expected. Like, it's going to continue to go in the wrong direction. It's just the nature of the sport. And nobody beats father time, undefeated. First half of last season, we were wondering if, you know, if he was injured, is his back bothering up again because he was playing so poorly, not only at the plate where we weren't getting the power or anything, but in the field.

Starting point is 00:11:48 He was having a tough going that first half. He did turn things around in a big way in the second half defensively. Looked a lot more like the guy that were used to seeing down there at third base. But, you know, Aronado is clearly aware of these shortcomings that he's had over the recent couple of seasons here because, you know, it's been stated that he's open. Hey, I'll move the first base. If this will get me moved on and help facilitate a deal, I'll do that. The big thing in all of this, which Thomas brings up and which we brought up before, is how much money are the Cardinals willing to eat on a Nolan Aronado deal? we just heard today that they were willing to go $15, $20 million in a Houston Astros deal,

Starting point is 00:12:34 because it's going to alter the return they will receive if the deal is made. Although a lot of money to you and I, the Cubs sending a measly $5 million to the New York Yankees and the deal with Bellinger isn't a whole lot, which is likely why you're getting Cody Poteet in return instead of a better prospect. unless they love Cody Potee for whatever reason. Thomas says that sending $10 million gets our Nato's contract to the same level, albeit in one extra year to Bellinger's remaining salary. If the Cardinals can up their cash exchange to $30 million,

Starting point is 00:13:09 nearly half of the remaining value of Nato's contract, they could get a legitimate prospect back. Again, we just saw $15 to $20 million, so they're willing to go above and beyond what the Cubs just did. But 15 to 20, now we've got kind of a spot. there where other teams can be like, all right, 15 to 20, you're talking about that. Here's what we think that's worth. He also brings up another scenario where the Cardinals could find a team that's interested

Starting point is 00:13:36 in punning off one of its pricey players to help the Cardinals fill a need on their team. Now, in my opinion, this is a scenario that won't be all that appealing because the idea of all of this, the idea of shedding of Paul Goldschmidt and shedding a Nolan or and not a, it's not because you don't like these guys. It's not that you don't think they can produce. Maybe not at the level they used to, but it's not that. It's that you want to not only get rid of salary, but you also want to give younger guys the impact.

Starting point is 00:14:06 You want to give them the innings. The goal is not to go get another pricey veteran on a crappy contract and have him step in and clog things up again. That would really make a whole lot of sense to me. Thomas mentions the Yankees and Marcus Stroman, again, though. Yankees not on the list. Maybe a Seattle Mariners pitcher could be had with the right package, he says. What about former number one overall pick?

Starting point is 00:14:29 Casey Mize with the Tigers pitcher, who's dealt with some injuries. Again, problem with all three of those, Yankees, Mariners, Tigers, not on the list that Nolan Aronado is apparently going with. And if he's not willing to go to Houston, who over the years has been a pretty solid team and has won a lot of ball games, World Series not that long ago. Why would you want to go to the other ones? You know, if he's already like, no, these are my six, I'm not going anywhere else. I guess he's not going anywhere else.

Starting point is 00:15:02 He points out that the Astros were, you know, rumored to be willing to trade for Amber Valdez, which would have been kind of an eye-opener if you were going to, you know, exchange. At least you would get a year out of Valdez before he becomes a free agent. But obviously that appears to be squashed now. He brings up what about Nato to the Angels for Redetmer's because the Angels were on the way. Is there a package that could be put together with like a Nato and in a Mats or a Fetty or something like that to go get some better prospects? Maybe. I mean, there's some different ways that you can go about this.

Starting point is 00:15:37 But, you know, they're going to have to mix and match. If you want a decent return, you're either going to have to eat a whole lot more money or you're going to have to add some sort of value to the trade on top of what Nolan Arnaud already gives you. So it's a tough spot to be. You know, what do you guys think? Let me know in the comment section down below. How do you think the Cardinals should be handling this situation? We're going to go to jump into some fan feedback on this discussion about this particular topic and a whole lot more. Coming up next on Locked on Cardinals.

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Starting point is 00:17:44 Keeps you updated on all the teams during this offseason. And you can find Locked on MLB on YouTube or wherever you listen to your podcast. So a lot of responses to the last video. this is kind of for new people, this is kind of my version of like chat or mailbag or whatever people call it these days. I just call it fan feedback. That's my thing. Doesn't even have to be a question per se. You could just be making a statement or an observation. Just want to get something off your chest. Come, come lay down on the lockdown Cardinals couch. Feel free to vent. You're in a safe place, my friends. All right. Let's go to because most people want to talk about Aranato. So Katie,

Starting point is 00:18:25 Shorty Bulls says. The worst thing the Cardinals could do is trade Aranano for absolutely nothing like we did Tyler O'Neill. The Cardinals should either keep him or trade him and get a couple of top 10 prospects in return. If you can't get a couple prospects in return, there's no point in doing the deal. Katie, thank you. I think the problem here, which I know that sucked. That was a, that sucked. First, I'm a huge fan.

Starting point is 00:18:52 This towel right here if you're watching on YouTube is Tyler. O'Neill's locker room towel from one of his first years with the team. I bought that at the Cardinals Pro Shop that they have out there where it's like the, you know, legit stuff. Anywho, I was a big fan of Tyler O'Neill. I still am. I think he's got a lot to offer. Couldn't stay healthy in St. Louis.

Starting point is 00:19:17 Had a falling out with Ali Marmal. It was going to be a free agent. Cardinals just wanted to dump him and move on. That was clearly the thinking there. Let's just separate. Let's just move on with their lives. Terrible return for the Cardinals. Awful.

Starting point is 00:19:34 I know this. You know this. Everybody knows this. Now he's going to be playing for the Baltimore Orioles after a big year with the Red Sox. I think the problem here is that this might be too far gone to actually come back from. And again, nobody is upset with each other, which was different with Tyler O'Neill where clearly there was some problems, right? But I think both sides have just accepted that this is going to happen one way or another. In one way, you can look at it as this allows, you know, that people know that Nato's available.

Starting point is 00:20:08 It allows teams to bid for his services. Best deal wins. Great, right? Or you can look at it as kind of putting the Cardinals in a corner with teams knowing that they want to unload him. They don't have to, mind you, but they want to. Nato wants to go to a winner. He doesn't really want to go through this reset that they're going to. they're doing. And these other teams can play hardball to make a deal. And it sucks that,

Starting point is 00:20:33 you know, he's not coming off a year that was productive like he was in 2022 when he was a top three MVP guy. You know, right now, if you just look at the stats and I took his name away, you just be like, oh, just an average guy plays pretty good defense. That's it. He just happens to have the name Nolan Arnano attached to it. So these guys aren't. getting the Nolan Aronado that the Cardinals traded for a few years back. You know, he's not coming off of amazing seasons. He's coming off to down seasons and they're getting worse. They're not getting better.

Starting point is 00:21:07 So could he flourish somewhere else? Yeah, I think he could. I think he would be a good fit in Boston. I thought Houston was going to be a good fit. Clearly not the case. But I feel like Boston with the Green Monster. I feel like he'd do quite well in Boston. But we'll have to see.

Starting point is 00:21:24 Let's see what they can get done. But I don't know if there's a coming back from this. Like if they don't get a deal and none of these teams put forth a good enough package or put forth enough effort to get Nolan Arna out of here, I don't know if he's going to want to come back. If you're like, well, you guys just try to trade me all offseason. Why would I come back? So I think they're in a tough spot now with that.

Starting point is 00:21:49 I think it kind of has to get done now. Again, they don't have to trade up, but it feels like they're going to, right? Dennis Kelly says, good video. I agree with you and that Gorman should be given a real shot to make it or not next season. This clearly in reference to who we think should play third base, if R and out of his dealt. He says, don't understand that so many fans have already written him off. Thank you, Dennis. Production is what people look at, right?

Starting point is 00:22:17 You know, you look at the production and when you can see, when you see him continuously strike out over and over and over and over, despite knowing that he's always been a guy that strikes out a lot, it does get pretty rough to watch. I mean, you can't, you can't say that you haven't been frustrated with watching Nolan Gorman of bats over the last year and a half, you know? It's been tough, you know, watching them chase bad pitches, but then take good ones and just the lack of contact in general.

Starting point is 00:22:50 It's alarming, it's frustrating, and I'm right there with you. I'm not ready to pull the plug on them because I saw this, first half of the season this past year, I thought he was pretty good. And I was willing to accept the strikeouts, you know? I can see why people have had enough. But I want to point out that he's 24, got to be 25 here next year. But in his limited time at the major league level, he has shown you 30 to 40 home run power. Like easy 30 to 40 home run power, even with the strikeouts.

Starting point is 00:23:22 my you know obviously your wish is that he'll end up like Kyle Schwerber right you know I've said you know Max Muncie-esque but Kyle Schwerber is kind of a guy that maybe he's going to be more like him you know that potential is there for him to have numbers like Kyle Schwerber howlwerber strikes out a buttload a but you know what else he does he walks a lot gets on base a lot and obviously has the power. Let's look. Schwerber, 2023, hit 197, 215 strikeouts. But he walked 126 times, 47 home runs, 104 RBIs. Last year, hit 248, struck out 197 times. The walked 106, 38 bombs, 104 RBIs. The strikeouts are maddening for me. And it's maddening for the older generation of baseball fans.

Starting point is 00:24:21 Like it used to be frowned upon. It used to be embarrassing that you had to, if you struck out, you had to, you know, tuck your tail between your legs and drag your bat back to the dugout. Like, oh, my gosh, a failure. And now it's not as big a deal. People are like, ah, well, well, I'll get them next time. And it's okay.

Starting point is 00:24:45 I don't want to say that it shouldn't be, I'm trying to think of the best way to say this, but I don't know. If you're going to strike out that much, then when you do swing the bat and put the ball in play, you've got to do damage. You still have to do something else to make the strikeouts worthwhile. All right. And you need to be able to take walks. And when you swing, you got to do damage. That is what Kyle Schwerber does.

Starting point is 00:25:18 He's going to strike out a ton, but he's dangerous at the plate. and you might get him to whiff a few times, but that one time you might take you deep, or he's going to work a walk and get on base and be a pain in the butt. That's what we need knowing Gorman to be more like. I need more walks. I'll take the strikeouts if you give me the rest of it, you know? Let's exchange here.

Starting point is 00:25:43 So that's the ultimate goal. I still think third base is where he belongs. There are other people who do not. Maybe we should do a whole episode about that of why or why, not Gorman or Donovan or Cajee or whoever should be over at third base. But that's just my opinion. And I've seen people go, you know, say it should be Donovan because he is the better fielding third baseman that he should be over there and quit moving Gorman around. But I don't know.

Starting point is 00:26:13 It just seems like he fits over there. That's just my opinion. He's never going to hit 300. I know that much. And if you can't accept that, then you're never going to like Nolan Gorman as a player. but if he gives you the production of a Kyle Schwerber, are you willing to look past it? I think most people would.

Starting point is 00:26:29 All right. Well, thank you guys for everything. Thank you for making a lockdown cardinals your first listen every day. Keep those comments and stuff going. We're going to continue with the fan feedback each and every episode, getting your thoughts and your ideas of how the Cardinals should improve, what they're doing right, what they're doing wrong. So don't be shy.

Starting point is 00:26:45 Okay. If you haven't already, give us a follow on TwitterX at L.O. underscore Cardinals at a JD Sports Radio. Like, subscribe on YouTube to help our channel. and our love for the Cardinals grow. You guys are the best fans in baseball for a reason. I'll see you next time on Lockdown Cardinals.

Locked On Cardinals - Daily Podcast On The St. Louis Cardinals - Arenado Says No To A Deal With Houston

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