Locked On Cardinals - Daily Podcast On The St. Louis Cardinals - Helsley, Contreras And Arenado Could Get Traded

Episode Date: October 4, 2024

- Why Trades? - Sonny Gray - Ryan Helsley - Willson Contreras - Nolan Arenado - Miles Mikolas - Steven Matz Follow & Subscribe on all Podcast platforms… 🎧 https://link.chtbl.com/LOSTLCardinals?sid=YouTube Locked On MLB League-Wide: Every Team, Prospects & More 🎧 https://linktr.ee/LockedOnMLB Follow on Twitter/X: @JDSPORTSRADIO Follow the show on Twitter/X: @LO_Cardinals Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors! Booking.com The right stay can make you a fan of any US city. Even your baseball rivals. Book today on Booking.com – the official accommodation partner of major league baseball. Booking.com, Booking dot YEAH! TonaI Tonal is the world's smartest and most effective strength training system that helps get you stronger. Right now, Tonal is offering our listeners $200 off your Tonal purchase with promo code LOCKEDONMLB. That’s Tonal.com, and use promo code LOCKEDONMLB for $200 off your purchase. PrizePicks Download the app today or click HERE and use code LOCKEDONMLB to win $50 instantly when you play your first $5 lineup. PrizePicks. Run Your Game. Gametime Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONMLB for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Download Gametime today. What time is it? Gametime. FanDuel You can start the season with a big return on FanDuel. Place your first FIVE DOLLAR bet and you’ll get started with TWO HUNDRED DOLLARS in BONUS BETS - guaranteed ! Visit FANDUEL.COM to get started. FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) #ForTheLou #stlcards #mlb #lockedoncardinals Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

If trimming the payroll is the goal, then it's going to probably take more than just letting free agents walk to hit their mark. So here are some high-priced names that could be spending time on the old trading block. This is Locked on Cardinals. You are Locked-on Cardinals. Your daily St. Louis Cardinals podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Hey there, Cardinals fans. I'm J.D. Hafford and I'm a national radio sports anchor, You're born and raised in the Lou and a lifetime Cardinals fan, and I'm your host for Lockdown Cardinals, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network covering your team every day. You can follow me on Twitter, X, at JD Sports Radio.

You can follow the podcast at L0 underscore Cardinals. I do want to thank those of you who make Locked on Cardinals your first listen every day. We are free and available wherever you get your podcast. You can find us on YouTube as well. Make sure you stop by, like, subscribe, comment, and interact with us. That way you can hit the notification button so you know when new episodes are posted. This is a show serving Cardle Nation and giving the best. best fans in baseball, all of the info about the birds on the bat.

This episode is brought to you by booking.com, booking.com, booking dot yeah, the right stay can make you a fan of any city, even your baseball rivals. Book today on booking.com, the official accommodation partner of major league baseball, get the booking.com app today. All right, news real quick, before we get into everything that we want to talk about in this episode, the New York Metsman knocking off the Milwaukee Brewers on Thursday night down to their final, what, two outs. And then the polar bear, Pete Alonzo, it's the shot and beats Devin Williams and the Brewers. The brewers are out, which is kind of crazy because Chuck, who does locked up Brewers,

has been saying it all year. He's like, all the time, man, we're fine at the regular season. Then we choke at the playoffs. He called it. He called it. Also, Terry Francona coming out of retirement to, uh, man. manage the Cincinnati Reds. That announcement was made late on Thursday night as well.

So Tito is back and going to be managing the Cincinnati Reds. So that means Skip Schumacher is not going to be there. But Francona obviously very well respected. Health-wise is why he stepped down from managing in Cleveland in first place. So I guess he's healthy enough to come back and is going to be managing the Cincinnati Reds now. So just a couple of announcements there. Let's talk about the Cardinals, obviously. They're looking to cut the payroll down.

Most believe these could be some significant cuts. You know, people aren't saying that it's, we're just shaving a couple of mill here and there. Some people believe that it's going to include some of the more popular players on the team. We know the team is already reportedly moving on from Paul Goldschmidt. He was a free agent. He had a hefty $26 million price tag on the payroll this past year. We've also heard that relievers Andrew Ketridge.

and Keenan Middleton will probably not be back either. Kit made $2.6 million. Middleton, who got hurt and never actually pitched for the guys, made $5 million, has a club option here in 2025 coming up for $6 million, but just kind of an unfortunate situation and an unfortunate waste of money. Obviously, you know, just flushing $5 million down the toilet, basically, but, you know, injuries happen. What are you going to do?

You still have the team options on Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson, got to make decisions on that. Lynn's, uh, Lynn made 10 million this year. Gibson was a 12 million. I would assume that neither one of them will be back if, uh, cutting payroll is that important. Lynn would cost 11 million next year. Gibson would still be 12. Uh, so if you add up all of those guys that we just mentioned, uh, guys who aren't going to be on the payroll, just free agent wise. Uh, that's about $55 million in savings. Now, you also need to take in consideration that Sunny Gray's deal is going to go up to $25 million next year from $10 million this year.

So you've got to shave another 15 off of that 55 that you were saving. And you've got around $40 million off the books at this point. You also have to take in the fact that arbitration raises are going to happen as well. Ryan Helsie is going to get a major boost. Brennan Donovan, Lars Newport, Joe Romero, John King, Andre Palante. So that's going to eat into the $40 million that you're talking about. saving already. So if that number isn't down to where ownership wants it to be, they'll need to shave off some more, which means got to trade some people, right? So here are some of the names that

could be traded away. And it's not because they're, well, I don't want to say it's not because they're bad players. But because of their performance on the field and how much they're making, a couple of them would get moved just because of that. But more importantly, it's because they need to clear up more space on the payroll. That's really what we're paying attention to here. So number one on the list, we're going to go with Sunny Gray. Now, Sunny Gray, obviously, we touched upon trading him away in Wednesday's show. And, you know, we gave you some landing spots like the Reds, the Mets, the Orioles, the Rangers, Astros, Braves.

going to make a lot of money the next two years, $25 million next year, $35 million after that. Then there's a club option for $30 million more in his age 37 season, but that can be bought out for $5 million. So it could be as much as $90 million, but no lower than $65 million for the next three seasons for Sunny Gray, who is still a strikeout rate was up, the walks were down. He was really good at Bush Stadium this year. On the road, things were much, much worse. Did give up a lot of long balls. And that was one of the things that everybody got in like, oh boy, because, you know, he only gave up eight with Minnesota.

And then he gives up a career high 21 this year. And that's considering that he pitches half his games in Bush Stadium where, you know, hit his many home runs. So I certainly think there will be some teams in major markets that would love to have Sunny Grays or number two or number three at what he's going to cost. But he does have the no trade clause. And you're going to find out that a few of these guys have that. So it's really up to Sunny if he wants to stay or go. Not that it's a 100% depiction of what the fan base is thinking about Sunny Gray. But I did run a poll this week that asked, would you shop Sunny Gray and 63.4% voted yeah.

They're like, yeah, I would shop them. I think most people, it's not that Sunny Gray there's something wrong with him or they don't want him. It's more of the fact that if we are going to go into this reset mode, what is the point in having a high-priced number one on the roster in the first place. I think that's what most people are thinking. Again, Cardinal fans are smart. But just because it's the smart thing to do doesn't make it the easiest thing to do either. So we'll see what happens there.

I thoroughly enjoyed Sunny Gray in a Cardinal uniform. I feel like that he was one of the guys who kind of helped get the ball rolling in spring training. When he came in, it was like, hey, so tell us about some of the things that we should be working on. And I feel like he was one of the guys. It was like, yo, you're behind the rest of the league and this, this, this. And I feel like he had some pretty important things to say to help get this organization to be better. He had a lot of insight when he first came on board. And I'd love to see him stick around and teach younger guys like Andre Palante and Michael McGreevy and Quinn Matthews here in the future.

I would love to have them still around. But money talks, right? Number two on the list, people aren't going to like this one, but it's Ryan Helsley. I know, I know. The dude just set the record for saves in a season for a Cardinals relief pitcher, 49 of them, led all of Major League Baseball in that category. But as I mentioned earlier, he's one of those guys who salary is about to spike in arbitration. I was reading an article from Jeff Jones, friend of the show.

He's supposed to come on next week, by the way, to talk about the Cardinals. but over at BND.com. and he was saying that he thinks that, you know, Helsley's probably going to get to $10 million a year, which is a lot of money for a relief pitcher. So, you know, one of the biggest complaints that we've had about the Cardinals recently when it comes to making trades is that they are selling guys at their lowest points instead of their highest.

Thinking about Dylan Carlson. I'm thinking about Tyler O'Neill. So the return on those guys was not very good. But, Helsley is at his highest point right now at age 30. The cost for elite closers is pretty hefty. I mean, go look at what Josh Hater is making. Whether there's that, they show that stat where Josh Hater was making, I think it was 19 million, 19 million a year.

And that was more than like what the tigers who just beat the Astros, what their roster cost or something like that, something to that effect. Like it was like the position players or something. I maybe it was the 25 matter. I don't know. But I remember seeing, I was like, oh my gosh. I mean, it's expensive. It's expensive to get these guys, you know.

Edwin Diaz got a big payday. So moving Howesley would make business sense, but likely not going to be popular with the fan base, right? You know, you finally got this elite closer that you, you know, everybody wants one of those. And you're going to ship them out. Like, that's going to be a tough one for fans to swallow if it does end up happening. But, you know, cutting salary is not easy. It's not easy. We got some other big names that I want to talk about next.

We'll continue this conversation with some positional players coming up next on Locktown Cardinals. This episode of Lockton Cardinals is brought to you by booking.com. Booking. Yeah. Explore those U.S. cities you always secretly wanted to learn more about whether it's some of my favorite places like New York, Boston. Vegas, Miami, San Diego, L.A., Nashville, Kansas City. They're fantastic spots, all of them with hotels, bed and breakfast, vacation rentals. You've got resorts and so much more available to you at booking.com.

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let's go ahead and swing over to the positional players. First guy on my list here is going to be your catcher. Wilson Contreras. Now, the Cardinals won 83 games this year. and Wilson Contreras was injured for almost half of those. He made just 358 played appearances. He appeared in 84 games due to injuries. And now while he was on the field, don't get me wrong,

he was arguably the Cardinals best hitter. When you go look at those stats, you know, while he was in those games, he was, really, their best hitter statistically. At 262, 15 home runs, 36 RBIs, at a career high in LBP at 380, and a career high in OPS plus of 136. He also improved defensively.

Is he a gold glove or anything like that? No, nobody's going to get him confused with you out of year, Molina. But he got better. He got better in the second year, much better, in my opinion. Unfortunately, those injuries took him out, so we didn't get to see what he could do over a full season. He's still got three more years to go on his current deal. He's making $18 million in the first two,

then it'll bump up to 18.5. in the fifth and final year. There's also a club option for Willie in 2028 for 17 and a half, but it can also be bought out like Sonny's says for $5 million. But that's a lot of cheddar, man. That's a lot of cheddar for a catcher who is going to be 33 next season. Plus, you got to be encouraged from what you saw from that combination of Yvonne Herrera and Pedro Pahas in his absence this year.

At least I was. I mean, maybe you weren't in praise. with what they did. I know the ability to throw out runners was a major problem. Wilson Ketraos was very good at that. Pahas was second on the list there, and Herrera was really, really bad. I understand that.

But offensively, the two of Herrera and Pahas combined to hit 271, they had 12 home runs and 52 RBIs, and a combined 431 at bats. Herrera hit 301 this year. The Rio 1. It's been a lot of time to Memphis for whatever reason. It didn't make a whole lot of sense to us when they were looking for right-handed bats and left-handed pitching.

And they had a guy who's pretty good at it. And they just kept them down in the minor leagues for a while. He also had an 800 OPS. People are very much encouraged by Yvonne Herrera's offensive talent this past year. You've also got number five prospect in your, according to MLB Pipeline, in the organization in catcher Jimmy Crooks, right behind both of these guys. All he did this past year was when the Texas League MVP award

with Springfield hit 321 with 11 home runs and 62 RBIs. Did that in just 315 at bats. And out of all of those tools, you know, you hear those numbers, you're like, wow, dude, just kind of a slugger, right? out of all of the tools, the way he's ranked from Mimbleb pipeline, his arm and his fielding are actually the highest rated tools by scouts. So yeah, really good hitter, but they also love him defensively and they love his arm.

So he's kind of, I'm not going to say a five tool catcher because I don't know, I don't think the speeds there by any means, but pretty good prospect right there. Once again, Wilson's already, has also got a no trade clause, which is an issue. So it's really up to Wilson Contreras if he's wanting to stick around with the Cardinals or he is willing to move on and play for a different team in the future. Nolan Arnada next on your list here. And, you know, it was a very disappointing year for Nata with the plate. We all know that. He did hit 272, which isn't so bad.

but power, the extra bases, all but vanished compared to what a normal Nolan Aronado season would look like. 23 doubles, a career low this year. 16 home runs, the lowest he's had in a full season since his rookie year. His slugging dipped under 400 for the first time in his career. And his OPS plus of 101 was his lowest since his rookie year. Now, defensively, he had a tough start to the year. remember like we're like, what is going on now that defense is slipping with Nolan too? But ended up making up a lot of ground in the second half of the season.

It ends up at the end of the year as a plus six defensive bruns saved, which was fourth best in the national league and the major leagues for third baseman. Matt Chapman had the ridiculous. I mean, in it crazy to know that Matt Chapman and Nolan Aronado were on the same infield in high school together. but Matt Chapman had 17 defensive friends save in 2024 for the Giants. The Rockies, Ryan McMahon came in second at 10.

Then it was Joey Ortiz from Milwaukee with seven and so did Josh Rojas from Seattle. But they played a whole lot less innings than Chapman, McMahon. And Nato did. So, yeah, they were still good. But I'm talking like 200 to 300 innings less than what these other guys did. So you can almost say that, you know, are not a deserve to sneak up ahead of those two guys. And that would place him third in third baseman and all of baseball.

He is owed $64 million over the next three seasons, this you know. The Rockies are still on the hook for some of that. They got two more installment payments of $5 million each to make. And there are some deferments at play with his salary as well, which gives him like $3 million for it seems like forever. when I was looking at it. Despite the price tag of this salary and what the Cardinals would want in return,

I'm sure there would be plenty of suitors for a Nolan Aronado just because of the type of guy he is, the type of player he is, hard-nosed, you know, is all the reasons we love him in St. Louis is why other people would love him, you know? And if he wants out,

he can get out, you know, It'd be a shame, too, because, you know, he had the opt-out clauses in his contract. And it was like, no, I want to win with the Cardinals. And so it would be a real shame and, you know, kind of a kick in the, you know what, to say, well, we're going to do this now. So we're thinking about moving you, even though he was loyal to you. Like, it seems like kind of a dick move. But business is business, man.

It's not personal. But that would be a bummer. But if he wants out, no trade clause, he's got to clear that. And, you know, if Nolan Aronado does get moved, if that ends up being something that has to happen, you know, I feel like you're pretty comfortable with what you could place over at third base. None of these guys are going to be Aronado defensively. But can you get what you got from Aronado offensively this past year from the grouping of Thomas Adjacy, Nolan Gorman, Brennan Donovan. and I guess if you need to, you know, Jordan Walker used to play third base. So you could give him some innings over there if you want.

But I think the first three are, you know, more realistic and a more likely situation. But if you can shave $30 million off and you would still get the same production and take a slight hit defensively. And, you know, I think Bernadne is a very good at fielder and I was looking at third base in the type. I've seen him just eyeball test-wise. I'd rather be on the infield than the outfield. Let me put it that way. Not that he's a problem in the outfield, but I just think he's suited as to being a better infielder.

But Nolan Gorman's got that great arm. If he could figure it all out of the plate, you know, maybe he's the guy over there. But there's a group there of three guys that can fill the role of what Nolan Arnauto, Nolan Arnado is and do it for 30-something million last. So obviously that's going to be something that, ownership's probably interested in.

The next two guys, we're going to go back to the pitching side of things. And I'm guessing not a lot of fans in Cardinal Nation would miss these next two guys, but will anybody want them? That's the real problem. So we'll talk about them next year on Locked on Cardinals. Hey, NFL fans, you can start the season with a big return on Fandol, America's number one sports book. You know, sometimes you'll be watching a game and you just kind of, you get a hunch.

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Use code Locked on MLB to get $50 instantly after you play your first $5 lineup. Prize picks, run your game. Thank you for making Locktown. Carlos, your first listen today. Now go check out Lockton MLB. The podcast was Sully. He's got you covered when it comes to everything that's happening here in the playoffs. sadly our cardinals are not a part of it.

But it's still entertaining stuff, man. We've had some really fun games so far. Everybody's moving on to the next round, dude. Hard to believe the Mets were able to knock off Milwaukee. Orioles. They're gone. Padres, knock out the Braves. Like Detroit, man, Detroit, not getting out of Houston.

Like, it's fun. Kansas City, Kansas City doing their thing as well, you know, being the winners over the Orioles. So it's always got you covered when it comes to that. And we'll be talking about it here on the podcast as well from time to time when things kind of simmered down with the Cardinals talk. But last two guys I want to mention here when it comes to possible trades, Miles Michaelis and Stephen Mats, you know, a couple of years ago,

these guys were really good ballplayers. 2022, Miles Michaelis was an all-star. Not that long ago. A couple of years ago, in 2021, Stephen Mats was a 14-game winner with an ERA of 3.82 with the Toronto Blue Jace. Things have changed. Things have changed big time for these guys. For Michaelis has just had back-to-back terrible seasons.

And I used to be a guy that stuck up for Michaelis because there's times where you're like, there he is. You know, you'll see these games where he's got his pinpoint control going on and he just burns right through lineups. but two years in a row he's been one of the worst pitchers in baseball. 2023, 9 and 13, 4.780 ERA, top five worst in baseball. This year, 10 and 11, 5.35 ERA, second worst in baseball. 2023 opponents hit 282 against him, second worst in baseball.

This year, it went up. 284. Again, second worst in baseball. And like I mentioned with Sunny Gray giving up the home runs, stuff. This is while pitching half of your games at Bush Stadium, a pitcher-friendly ballpark, a place that you're supposed to succeed at. And we still got these horrible numbers. Now, what are the things that Michael is does good? He's been healthy over the last couple years. He's the Jennings eater, and he doesn't walk many guys. Problem is, he leaves the ball

out of the plate too much, and he gets hammered. Stephen Matt's. He's just injury prone. I don't think there's anything about him that says, oh, my gosh, you're a terrible pitcher. Whether he's starting or relieving, you know, we've seen him have some pretty good success when he is on the mound. Problem is getting him out there.

He's always been hurt, and he consistently continues to be hurt. I remember when Mo signed him, and I was like, really we wanted an injury riddle guy like this on a four-year deal? They got him. Matt's is making $12.5 million next year. Final year of his deal, Michaelis,

make $17.6 million next year. Also, the final year of his deal. If there's a reason why people would have want these guys, it's because, first off, pitching is very expensive. And these guys would be on one-year deals, basically. And if they're good, cool. If they suck, they're not going to be around anyway. So that's nice.

but who's who's the desperate team that's going to make a trade for either one of those guys like how much money would the Cardinals have to eat to get rid of these two dudes they don't want them they don't but I don't know if they'll be able to pull off a deal the easiest guy to trade would probably be Stephen Matt's like who wants Miles Michaels right now with a five ERA getting hit bombs off of them guys are hitting 284 against them like who wants that guy i know i don't in a cardinals uniform but he may not be movable he might be stuck with which is horrible it's like what the the nationals have had to go through with patrick corb but they know he's not any good but they're

stuck with him he's got this albatross of a of a contract you're making so much money and it's him and michaelis who are neck and neck as the worst pitchers in baseball the last two years and the nationals still keep throwing them out there. Like they refuse to just eat the money and get rid of them. I wonder if the cardals are going to be in the same boat. Like if your goal is to win games, just admit you screwed up on this deal and give somebody else a chance. I don't see why it's so difficult.

You already spent the money. We'll see. We'll see if it's something they even want to do is eat money like that for Michaelis or Mats or any of these guys, to be honest. Those are the significant expensive salaries that are still on this roster. And, you know, you don't have to trade guys like New Bar or Donovan or Nolan Gorman or any of these young guys. Like, you don't have to trade them because of salary issues. Would you want to move some of these guys around and go get other guys?

That's totally different story. But salary-wise, these are the guys that you look at it and you're like, man. If I'm cutting costs, like one or two of these guys, be nice to get rid of them. So that's kind of probably what's going to happen. And again, this is all dependent on how low the payroll is going to get and what they're shooting for. Like what's the target to get to. They haven't come out and said like, you know, hey, this is, you know, fire sale. We're moving everybody.

Everything's on sale. Come and get them. They haven't said anything like that. But I'm sure they're listening. I'm sure they're listening to see what the interest will be. And you know, you're not going to hear much about it until after the World Series and stuff is wrapped up. But yeah, it's, you know, obviously if I had to pick guys to get rid of that are on this roster right now, I don't want to get rid of Sunny or Willie or Nato. I don't or Hellsley.

But I understand why it would happen. But if there's anyway, if you could sucker anybody to take it. Michaelis and Matt's and getting rid of those contracts. That'd be a really good job by Moe. And I guess to an extent, Heinbloom, I guess he's got a little bit of say. Like, I'm sure he's going to talk to Moe about deals like that. But I don't know. Bottom line is if you do trade one of those top four guys,

you're just hoping you get something decent and returning. You don't get crushed like Heinblum did in the Mookie Betts deal when he was with Boston or any of the recent deals. that haven't worked out so well for John Moseilac. But anyhow, leave your comments down below. Hit me up on Twitter, X. Let me know what you guys think about these moves. Who are you getting rid of?

You got to get rid of two of them. Which ones are you getting rid of realistically, knowing how difficult it's going to be to move somebody like Matt or Michaelis? What about the top four? Which two are you trying to move on from? Let me know, and we can discuss it. We can discuss it in tomorrow's episode.

If you haven't already, please give us a follow on Twitter X at L underscore Cardinals at the Jannis Sports Radio. Please like and subscribe on YouTube, help our channel and love for the Cardinals grow. You guys are still the best fans in baseball for a reason, and I will see you next time on Locked up Cardinals.