Locked On Cardinals - Daily Podcast On The St. Louis Cardinals - Is Moving On From Paul Goldschmidt Smart Or A Mistake?

Episode Date: November 22, 2024

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Did the St. Louis Cardinals screw up the Paul Goldschmidt situation? There are some people that think that they have. We're going to discuss it today on Locked on Cardinals. You are Locked on Cardinals. Your daily St. Louis Cardinals podcast, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. Hey there, Cardinals. I'm J.D. Haffern and I'm your host for Lockdown Cardinals, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network covering your team every day. You can follow me on Twitter X at JD Sports Radio. You can follow the podcast. at L0 underscore Cardinals. I do want to thank those of you who make Lockstone Cardinals your first listen every day,

free and available, wherever you get your podcast, also available on YouTube as we continue to, we just surpassed 11,000 subscribers, by the way. Thank you so much. Everybody, appreciate you. If you haven't, you know, liked and subscribed and joined us, by all means, we've got plenty of room here at Locked on Cardinals for you. This is a show serving Cardinal Nation and giving the best fans in baseball, all of the info about the birds on the bat.

Now today's episode is being brought to you by our friends at Fandall. You can start the season with a big return on Fandall. New customers can place a $5 bet, and you'll get started with $150 in bonus bets if you win your first $5 bet. Visit fandle.com to get started. So I want to talk about Paul Goldschmidt today. The Cardinals and First Basement Paul Goldschmidt are, parting ways after six seasons together. The Cardinals made the trade to go get Goldie back on

December 5th in 2018. It's hard to believe that it's been that long, but it's been that long. In exchange, they gave up a group of prospects, which included former first round pick, Luke Weaver, who ended up having an outstanding postseason with the New York Yankees this year as a closer, and top catching prospect Carson Kelly, who I believe is with the Tigers now. They then locked up Paul Goldschmidt to a five-year, $130 million extension that just expired at the end of this season. Now, I'm of the opinion that moving on from Paul Goldschmidt is the right thing to do. That it's not a bad fact. It's a bummer.

Of course, that the team was unable to win a championship or do really anything all that meaningful in the playoffs with both Goldie, and Aronado on this roster as their quarterstones. But things change over the time. And in my eyes, that's okay. Eventually, you just got to move on. If there was one thing that I learned from watching the Cardinals, and the one that where I really set in was when Albert Poo-Holes went to the agents. Like seeing Albert leave St. Louis as a free agent was very, very tough for me.

I was like, what? How are you letting Albert Foo-Holes get away? This is crazy. And that was the one that kind of opened my eyes. They're like, look, this is businessman. And sometimes it just has to happen. Everybody's got to move on eventually. And in the long run, moving on from Albert Poo holes,

was the smart thing to do. Go look at the production that he had with the Angels. And then with the Dodgers before he got to St. Louis and did what he did in that final year. Like, it was the right thing to do for what the Cardinals were doing. So I'm okay with moving on from another aging player like Paul Goldschmidt, but some of the community feel different about this. Some think that moving on from Goldie is a mistake for a couple of different reasons. So I thought I'd highlight one of those people today because just because I feel one way

about something doesn't make it right. It's just my opinion. I will never sit here and be like a dictator and go, my way or the highway. I am right. You are wrong. You are stupid. I am smart. That's not the case. All right. I'm wrong about a lot of things. But I'm also right about a lot of things as well. And in any situation, I think it's smart to listen and try to understand both sides of the situation and of the argument. And I'm willing to listen here about this Paul Goldschmidt stuff because Cody Williams was the one that stood out to me from fancited.com. And he wrote a piece on the Cardinals in gold.

All right. And he didn't hold back really at all in his feelings about the Paul Goldschmidt situation and that he feels that the Cardinals are making a mistake by letting him walk considering the price. So here's what he had to say. The projected Paul Goldschmidt contract is a brutal indictment on Cardinals and that the Cardinals should be ashamed after seeing the projections for his next contract. I want to recap. Before we get into his quotes, I want to recap the last couple of seasons for Goldie, because in the first four years with the Cardinals, obviously very, very good. He garnered MVP votes, won the award in 2022 when he hit 317, 35 dingers, 117 RBIs. The OPS plus that year, 177 highest of his career. He was incredible. Nobody saw that coming, by the way. That took all of us. We were like, whoa. All of a sudden, he's got this hockey puck at the bottom of his bat,

And all of a sudden he's an MVP again. Incredible. The Cardinals were flying high that year in 2022. Remember, it was him and Nolan Arnato, who finished third in the MVP voting. And then, of course, there was Albert, who had come back and had that incredible second half to make the push for 700 career home runs. Amazing, right? But in the short-lived playoff series against the Phillies, the Cardle's offense just disappeared. And they were out after two games. And yeah, you can blame Ali for sticking with Helsley in game one if you want to. But the bottom line is they scored three runs in two. games. Not going to get you far. Paul Goldsmith hit 2.45 with two home runs and 10 RBIs over the final

month of that MVP season and then went 0 for seven with four strikeouts in the series against Philly. All right. So now that's got everybody's like, oh, it's not very good over the last month there. Is that a blip on the radar? That's all that is, right? No big deal. 2023. He hits 268, 25 home runs, 80 RBI, OPS plus dips to 122. Strikeout numbers jump to 161. And that is where I started to take notice is when the strikeouts start to rise and other things start to dip. That that happens as you get older. And the regression was expected in 2023. So nobody's panicking because he wasn't the MVP guy again. Nobody expected him to be the MVP guy that one year. And for his numbers to come down, nobody panic. But eyebrows certainly raised. You're kind of like,

Oh, okay. So a bad month, bad playoffs, kind of a meh season compared to what he did the year before. But still, OPS Plus of 122. You're not going to whine about that. 2024, he falls to 245. 22 home runs, 65 RBIs, the OPS Plus. Now we're on the wrong side of 100. We're down to 98.

Paul Goldschmidt is 37 years old. And you can either choose to believe that this slide in production is a product of the Cardinals environment where they just weren't winning as much and that he fell because of that. You can blame the lineup around them if you want to go there. You can say bad luck if you want, whatever excuse you want to use. Or you can choose to see it as I do as just a natural decline of a once great player who has gotten older and is just not at that level anymore. I'm going to quote some of the things that Cody had to say here. And again, this is not to rip on Cody, the guy who wrote this by any means.

Everyone's entitled to their opinion. But he's got some strong feelings about this. And here's what he had to say. The expectation is that the team will shed payroll instead of making meaningful additions. That in itself is a painful message to send to the St. Louis faithful. I can agree with that. That sucks. At the same time, it's also an indictment on Moseilock and the Cardinals' Organization for how brutally they've mismanaged this organization that they won't be bringing Goldschmidt back, particularly at the price tag.

It seems he's going to demand based on the early projections. Jim Bowden of the Athletic projected the soon-to-be former Cardinals deal to come in at one year $15 million, which is the same projection that MLB trade rumors offered for the first baseman's deal. And while ESPN's Kylie McDaniel projects the deal to be slightly more expensive than one year, $18 million. McDaniel also called Goldie one of the free agents worth investing in at that price. There's truthfully no sugar-coating the current situation for the Cardinals right now. It's been bad on the field the past two seasons, and it's only likely to get worse. Goldsmith's projected contract, which the club should have been able to afford if things were going better, now only serves as a painful reminder of how the mighty have fallen and may be.

only continue to do so in the immediate future. And now I'm going to give you my two cents about why I don't feel like this is such a bad thing at all and is not really a sign of the Cardinals' failures as an organization. I got some thoughts on why this is not a bad idea to move on from Paul Goldschmidt, even if they had one, 86, 87 games this past year because I couldn't disagree more with this. So I'm going to tell you my thoughts on this next on Lockstone Cardinals. Get ready to tackle the NFL action with Fandual, America's number one sportsbook, because right now new customers can bet $5 and get $150 and bonus bets if you win.

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first listen every day. Leave your comments on YouTube as well as on Twitter X anytime you want. The feedback is always welcome and encouraged. Talking about this article on fans cited from Cody Williams who wrote that he feels like the Cardinals are making a mistake by letting Paul Goldschmidt get away considering what his price tag is. And he gave examples of $15 to $18 million range for one year. Now, in hindsight, which is an always an easy thing to do, right? The Cardinals should have tried to trade Paul Goldsmith back in 2023. When he was still coming off an MVP season, his numbers hadn't fallen as drastically

as they had in 2024. They were already selling off guys like Montgomery, Flaherty, Hicks, Paul Young. But the idea was that 2023 wasn't something that was supposed to happen. Again, a blip on the radar and things are going to be better in 2024. And the Cardinals would be competitive again. But that didn't happen. Yes, the Cardinals were better. But you have to admit that one of the main reasons why the St. Louis Cardinals weren't a better team in 2024

and why they were only an average team with 83 wins and they weren't more competitive was directly due to the decline of Paul Goldschmidt. Not all the blame should go on Goldie. That's not what I'm saying here. But you cannot deny that Paul Goldsmith is a better version of himself like he was in 2023 and, I mean, of course, obviously, 2022. Then this team has more than 83 wins. If he's better with runners in scoring position where he was god awful,

barely hit over the Mendoza mark with runners in scoring position this year, this team is won more games than 83. You can't deny that. A bad week and a bad mom, you know, that's part of baseball, right? You know, there's ups and downs and it happens over 162 games. Nobody is immune to not slumping at one point or another. Even the great Shohei Otani had a couple of weeks there where things weren't great. but this is back to back full seasons of things going south for Paul Goldschman.

And sadly, this could just be the end of the road for Goldie as an elite hitting first baseman. I'm somebody who does believe that. And if that's what you believe, why would you pay him $15 to $18 million to come back again? The goals of this reset that the Cardinals are going through is. is to not do the same things over and over again that have led to back-to-back underwhelming seasons. Paul Goldschman is a main reason why these last two seasons have been underwhelming.

He's, again, not the only reason, but he's part of the reason. The production was not there, especially this past year. And when you're doing this reset, the other thing that you're trying to do is not take it bats away from younger players just for the hope that a veteran like Goldie will magically find his bat speed and swing again at the age of 37 and after two seasons where his production is plummeting.

Now, would it shock me to see Paul Goldsmith after going somewhere else having an okay season somewhere this next this upcoming year no no it wouldn't shock me at all you know one of one of the things about becoming a free agent and going somewhere else is that it kind of rejuvenates you not everybody but a lot of people they get they get the juice back in themselves right you know they're like hey fresh start fresh place cool but do i think he's going to be closer to the MVP form in 2022 than what he was in 20s 24. No, no, I don't think that at all. I think, I think a good season for Goldie in 2025 is what you've got in 23. And for the Cardinal, this particular Cardinals team, that's not going to make them all that

much better. So why would you keep them? Why is this a mistake? Especially when you now have a backup plan and you've seen what that backup plan is going to look like. Now that Goldie and this contract are on. First off, you're shedding the payroll, which is something the Cardinals brass want to do. And you've got a guy that you're already paying very good money in Wilson Contreras and his much more productive bat over the last two seasons. They're going to go down to first base so that the young catching duo of Yvonne Herrera and Pedro Pahas can play more. Now is Wilson, is he going to be capable of playing first base? Well, I don't know. I have no idea.

I really couldn't sell you. I got no clue. But that is a normal thing for aging catchers. And I'm not trying to say that Contreras is old, but as time moves on, catchers normally make their way over to first base and D.H. That's just where they tend to go. And with three years left on his deal,

no real first base prospect to hold back that you're blocking by moving them down there. This makes sense to me. It makes sense. And you can harp that Luke and Baker deserves more of bats and a chance to play. But let me propose this question to you. Who do you want to see get more of bats in 2025? Do you want Luke and Baker?

Or would you rather see Yvonne Herrera take more of bats? Because that's kind of what you're doing here. Which one do you feel has a brighter future? Yvonne Herrera or Lucan Baker? Ask yourself that question. Now, if Contreras had said, sure, I understand we're resetting. I don't want to be here anymore. Go ahead, trade me.

Then perhaps you would see more Luke and Baker and Alec Berluson down there at first base. But now instead, you're not cutting the Contreras offense out of your lineup. Now you get to keep that bad in the lineup and see if what Herrera did over his time in the big leagues last year, which was very productive, was either a mirage or something more, something to build. upon. You know, like we were talking this off season before all of this reset stuff had started. I'm sorry, but my chair is always sinking. I got to get new one. Either I got fatter or this thing is busted in some way, shape, or form. Anyway, we were talking about like trading Yvonne Herrera. And what is that cycle that the Cardinals keep doing? They trade these young guys because they're

blocked by veterans. And then those young guys go off and have good years with other people and good careers with other teams. And they don't want to see that happen anymore. From what I've seen, Herrera's bat is legit and should play at the major league level. It's why I thought moving him to first base would have been a good plan because he could become your first baseman of the future for a really long time. I thought that made sense considering the limitations behind the plate so far in his career, but the Cardinals still believe in him as a catcher and want to continue to use him as catcher. Now, Paix is the preferred defensive catcher, and I assume he'll get subbed in later in games and get plenty of starts in between. But Herrera appears to be the starter in my mind right now.

Opening day, if it's started tomorrow, Yvonne Herrera would be my starting catcher. Just because of his offensive capabilities, I don't want to take his bat out of the lineup. And hopefully we do see some improvement behind the plate. perhaps the cardinals finally go out and hire a catching instructor to specifically help Ivan Herrera and Pedro Pahez and Jimmy Crooks, who's the next catcher in the system behind them. You know, we've had some good catchers in the past. You know, Tom Pagnazi, Tolipena, Mike Maffini, that Yadi guy. I'm sure we can reach out and touch somebody, right?

Get a hold of them. Now, maybe you think I'm drinking the Cardinal, Cruy. Kool-aid a little too much. And okay, I'm just not quite sure how moving on from Goldie is considered a bad thing at all. Unless he was coming back on an Albert Pooleholds contract, remember that was like, what, a million dollars? Then you're like, well, okay, I understand. But I get that Goldie was once a great player in this league, right? Hall of Famer, probably a Cardinal Hall of Famer for sure, right? And he represented the team very, very. very, very well. Couldn't find a nicer guy in the game of baseball. And it sucks that his tenure

ended the way it did with St. Louis not being good and ended on a sour note for him with his production. And no, there was no miraculous, you know, goodbye and standing ovation for Goldie as he left the field or anything like that. Okay, that sucks. I'm sorry. Sorry that didn't happen. There There's no fairy tale ending to this. But that doesn't normally happen. Like what Pools did that last year was an absolute anomaly. That is not normal. It was freaky.

It was magical and it was absurd in every way, shape, and form. That he would go from looking like somebody who was completely washed in the first half of that season. Then after the All-Star break becomes arguably the best hitter in the National League. Like it was crazy. You know, what happened to Adam Wainwright, another beloved figure for the St. Louis Cardinals is much more the norm where eventually the body breaks down and just can't do it the way it used to anymore. And we've seen it happen in a lot of sports where teams hold on to guys for sentimental value too long and ends up biting them in the ass. The Goldie contract is done.

Time to move on. and I'm okay with that. Thank you for your time and service. Enjoy the buttload of money that we paid you and good luck. Now my hope is that wherever Goldie does land in 2025, I hope it's not in this division because I do not want to see him haunting the Cardinals in this next year. But I just don't think it's a bad move at all.

And I don't think it's an indictment on anything that John Moseiloc did wrong. I think if anything that this contract ended, this is the right thing. that you got him during that contract, most of that was elite production. And then in the last two years, it tailed off. And now the contract's over. Now, if he was still under contract for three more years, that would be a failure. That would be a problem.

But it's not. You don't have to do anything with him. He's gone. You just let him go. You just let him float away. It's okay. And if the cardinals are going to turn this ship around, hanging on to a 37-year-old first baseman who's been declining for the next

last couple seasons. It doesn't seem like the smartest way to go about turning anything around, especially at $15 to $18 million. That doesn't make any sense at all to me. But maybe you disagree. Maybe you're on Cody's side. Maybe you're on my side. Maybe I'm reading this whole thing wrong. Let me know your thoughts on this subject in the comments below. cut the cord, smart move, or Cardinals are making a mistake by letting Goldie get away since he's going to be cheaper than he was last year. Let me know what you think. We've got one Cardinal named a top prospect from the Arizona Fall League to talk about next on Locked on Cargles.

Thank you for making Lockton Cardinals your first listen today for your second listen. Find Lockdown MLB baseball guru Sully brings you the daily blend of humor in baseball, keeping you updated on all the teams during this. off season. I'm sure he'll have some news when the Cardinals do something, you know, winner meetings are coming up here in a couple of weeks. So things will get busy here. But obviously he's talking about the Cy Young winners and the MVP winners and everything in between. So check them out. Find Locked on MLB on YouTube and wherever you listen to your podcast. Arizona Fall League is a wrap. Cardinals infield prospect Thomas and Jacey named one of the top

prospects by Jim Callis at MLB.com from the AFL. year he came in at number 20 on Jim's list of his top 30 reminds people that this is based on long-term potential than AFL performance alone. Both are considered, though. But here's what he had to say about the Cardinals prospect, Thomas Sejacy, and his time in the AFL. While Sejacy lacks a plus tool, he's a solid hitter without a glaring weakness. He finished second in the batting race at 391. His slash was 3994, 524, 594, provides gap power and his instincts. enable him to play quicker than his franchise speed on the bases and in the field. So what do I take from that?

Nothing flashy, but gets the job done, which is who and what Jaycey has been his whole career, because there's nothing about Thomas a JC that stands out to you. Like when you look at him, you're not like, oh, wow, that's an athlete. You know, you know how you see certain athletes like, you know, an Aaron Judge and, you know, LeBron James. You know what I'm saying. Like you see athletes you're like, that dude plays sports. Thomas and JC, if you saw him walking by, you probably wouldn't know any better. 5-11, 185 pounds.

Doesn't have flashy speed, doesn't have tremendous power, doesn't have a cannon for an arm. But you know what he is. He's a ball player. He is a ball player that no matter where he plays, eventually, He ends up producing. And that is somebody that I know Cardinal Nation can get on board with. They love these kind of players. You know it.

You know it. Matt Carpenter was one of those players. David Eckstein was one of those types of players. Nothing special about these guys, but they're ball players. They go out and give you 110% each and every day. And they just produce. They get the jobs done. in his career so far.

We go back. 2021. So Jacey's first season and professional ball. He's 19 years old at the time. It's 256, 10 home runs, 37 rubies in 73 games. 2022, he plays 103 games.

He hits 312, 15 home runs, 70 RBIs. 203, 139 games. It's 306, 26 home runs, 111 RBIs, wins that Texas League MVP. 2024, 125 games at Memphis, hits 253, 20 home runs, 67 RBIs, and got the call up with Cardinals. And yeah, didn't do all that much when he was with the Cardinals for that short stint at the end of the season. But so what?

So what? If you've learned just those late call-ups, they don't exactly go perfect. Mason Wend had a hell of a time when he got called up in his final month. And then finally he's there at the Major League level here in 2024 the whole time. probably could have been an in-all rookie of year finalist was in the finalist for getting a gold glove this year. The guy that you're building your whole organization around, at least one of the guys, I shouldn't say he's the only guy, but, you know, one of the big guys, face of the franchise, type of guy now. So, Jacey, in the AFO, 391, two home runs, seven devils, 10 RBIs, walked 16 times, and that's an 18 game, you guys. 82 plate appearances in total.

So for fun, I was like, all right, I'm going to do a little math here. What would the numbers of the AFL versus JCP project over 162 games? So 18 games into 162, that's 9. So that means you multiply everything by 9, right? It's 162 games. 391 average doesn't change. But the home run is going to 18, 63 doubles, 90 RBIs, 27 stolen bases, 144 walks. Yeah, I'll take that. I'll take that. And of course, that was for fun because he's not

facing Major League pitching in the Arizona Fall League. So let's not get ridiculous here and go, oh my gosh, we got a superstar. That's not what I'm saying. But it's fun to look at how good he did in the Arizona Fall League. After his struggles at the Major League level at the end of the season, went to Arizona and did better. And that's what you're hoping for. You love to see the production, no matter who it is he's facing. He was the only Cardinals prospect in the top 30 that they listed there. But it got me to thinking, too, like, all right, so Jayce on the team next year, what's our infield look like? So bear with me as we walk around this. As of right now, as of this moment, Nolan Arnado was still your third basement. Mason, when is your shortstop?

Nolan Gorman and Brennan Donovan were going to be at second base probably and then you got Contreras at first. So the question is, how do you get Thomas and Jacey more bets? If R or not it was traded, which is certainly a possibility still. You've got Gorman and Donovan who can both play third base. So J.C. take over second base. Or would Gorman just take over third base? Donnie takes second. And so Jacey is still on the.

bench or what if brittendonovan becomes your starting left fielder stays there from this past year laris nupar is your starting center fielder jordan walker in right field siani's on the bench and then gorman at third win sedacy and contraris on the infield then in late games or late in games for defensive purposes siani would come into center new bar slides over to right field Walker hits the bench. Donnie stays and left. Is that a way to go about it? I'm just spitballing. Just thinking of things, just combinations to think about, obviously trades can be made, people can be moved. As of right now, Victor Scott, for me, is starting to AAA. That's where that's where I would start him next year. If it all began today, Siani would be your fourth outfielder.

God bless him for having a great year, but, you know, not a great hitter. So I need more offense. I would rather have Donnie, Newt, Walker, and then Siani coming in late in games. And that opens up second base for Cajisi if Nolan Arnato is gone and Gorman is playing third. So the Nolan Gorman thing kind of, what are we doing there? What are we got? So, or is he just a bench bat? I don't know. We're going to find out eventually, but this is what the offseason's about, right?

Just speculating and just thinking through our own thoughts. So leave your thoughts about this in the comment section down below. Thank you again for making Lockdown Cardinals your first listen every day. You haven't already. Give me a follow on Twitter X at L.O. underscore Cardinals at a JD Sports Radio. You can like and subscribe on YouTube and continue to help our channel and love for the Cardinals grow. You guys are the best fans of baseball for a reason, and I will see you next time on Lockedon Parts.