Locked On Cardinals - Daily Podcast On The St. Louis Cardinals - Keeping Ryan Helsley?

Episode Date: July 18, 2025

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Are the St. Louis Cardinals going to keep closer, Ryan Helsley, the latest on his situation. Plus, we graded the position players yesterday. Today, we're talking pitching. You are locked on Cardinals. Your daily St. Louis Cardinals podcast, part of the Locked-on Podcast Network, your team every day. Hey, there, Cardinals. I'm J.D. Hafford and I'm your host for Locktown Cardinals, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network covering your team every day. Follow me on X to J.D. Sports Radio, the podcast at L.O. underscore Cardinals. We're also a lot. on YouTube, TikTok, Instagram at Locked on Cardinals. This is a show serving Cardinal Nation and giving the best fans of baseball,

all of the info about the birds on the bat. Today's episode brought to you by GameTime. Download the GameTime app, create an account, use code locked on MLB for $20 off, your first purchase. So the All-Star break comes to an end today and real baseball begins yet again tonight between the Cardinals and the Arizona Diamondbacks. Cardinals beginning the second half on the road in Arizona. Good thing.

It's the weekend so that everyone can stay. up late and watch them as they try to make a push over these final two weeks before the trade deadline to decide what, if anything, they are going to do with their roster. They are currently a game and a half back in the NFL card and six and a half back in the division. And I know six and a half seems like a lot. I mean, it is. But remember, just because the trade deadline is in a couple of weeks, doesn't mean that the playoff race is over two. Remember last year the Tigers were selling at the trade deadline, went on a run in the final month, and ended up making the playoffs. So don't get discouraged by the moves or lack of moves that are made

at the deadline by the Cardinals. You just got to see how things play out. There was a piece in the athletic by Jim Bowden where he discussed moving the trade deadline back, which I thought was interesting. He was suggesting, I think middle of August is what it said. And I kind of agree, because I feel like these teams, you know, give them a little more room to breathe and make decisions. Like you come out of the break two weeks and then that's it. No other chances to make any trades. I just want to see how things play out a little bit more with so many teams in contention because you've got so many playoff spots to fill up.

So it just kind of makes the number of teams who are willing to deal a bit less. It makes it a little less fun for people like me, which, you know, I guess it can't be good bad depending on where your team is for a team like the Cardinals who are on the fence right now of what they need to be doing. It makes life a little more difficult. On one hand, you could trade some veteran pieces and pick up some prospects in return. On the other hand, you could deal away some prospects to try to improve your current roster and make a push to get into the playoffs. If you believe that what you could get would be enough to get you into the dance in October, You know, last year they dealt Tommy Edmund in a three-team with the Dodgers and the White Sox that netted them Eric Fetty and Tommy Fam.

The move made sense as far as what they got in return. They were looking for another starter. They were looking for another bat from the right side to hit lefties. But it didn't make enough of an impact to push them across the finish line. Meanwhile, Edmund, you know, he goes to Los Angeles, hadn't played all year due to that wrist injury. So we didn't know exactly what he was going to be able to do. and he goes off and helps the Dodgers win a world championship. The White Sox ended up grabbing some good prospects from the Dodgers.

And you see what we're left here with in St. Louis. Fetty has struggled overall since Donning a Cardinals uniform. He won seven games with the White Sox and 21 games last year before the trade. Now he's 5 and 14 as a Cardinal with a 4.43 ERA and 29 starts since coming to St. Louis. Tommy Fam lasted a month before going on waivers and getting claimed by the Royals. the idea made sense of what they went out to get. But in the end, you look at it now and it's a bad trade. It didn't work.

The Cardinals are likely not going to get much of anything at all for Eric Fetty. They didn't get anything for Tommy Fam and they lost Tommy Edmund in it. And you've also seen Tommy Fam go to the pirates and help them win multiple games against the Cardinals, which which stings even more. But one piece that the Cardinals held on to last year and this off season is closer Ryan Helsley, despite the expiring contract at the end of the year, despite peaking last year and winning the NL Reliever of the Year award, the Cardinals decided to hold on to him this off season. And we don't know the exact reasons why. Maybe, you know, the offers to pull Helsley out of St. Louis were, we're underwhelming. That's a possibility. Maybe they were hoping he'd have a similar season and be worth even more at this year's deadline.

That's a possibility. Either way, that hasn't worked either. Halsley has been far less effective this year and is routinely pitching around walks and hits. So his stock has dropped significantly from where he was last year. Could he still be worth something at the trade deadline? Absolutely. His resume, his ability to fire the ball in at triple digits is always going to attract teams. But Katie Wu over at the athletic says that there's a possibility they may not move him at all.

This was in their bold predictions portion of the athletic. So take it for what it's worth. But she says the Cardinals who are teetering on the competitive ledge themselves don't seem inclined to trade him. Even with Housley set for free agency after the season, St. Louis could net a sizable return by trading its closer. But it's more likely it holds on to him. Extend a qualifying offer for 2026 and hope for a competitive draft. path pick if he walks. One of the many criticisms about the Cardle's front office in recent years has been that they value their guys, people in their house, their own people, too much

and hang on to certain guys too long. And this kind of feels like that sort of path again, doesn't it? Plus, a qualifying offer for Ryan Helsley would, it would be around what, 20 to 21 million dollars. I mean, for a team that has been cutting payroll, has had the TV money issues, attendance dipping, has the same salary, like payroll salaries they had for,

they did 10 years ago, pointed that out in yesterday's episode. They were at 128, 10 years ago, and they're at 128 again now. They don't have, like, they haven't produced. a star player to attract people or spend on a star player to attract people to come to the ballpark, does possibly spending $20 million on a closer sound like a good plan to you?

And if someone does sign him, all you get is draft pick and return. Does that sound like it's worth the risk? The risk you took this off season by not dealing him for whatever reason it was has in my mind also backfired. Similar to the Fetty fam trade. Housley has, depreciated and worth. He's a solid closer, but not elite like he was last year. He had a, he had a birthday today actually. Happy birthday, Ryan Ellsley. So he is 31 now, also known as the wrong side of 30. The fastball still sits at 100, but is also getting hit for an incredible for 19 batting average. Opponents are raking against his fastball. So sometimes it's better to just punt and get out of a situation.

But Katie is suggesting that perhaps they don't do that. And they go this route instead. I think that's a mistake. And I really hope that there is a decent offer for him at the deadline. I hope one of these other teams like a Philadelphia gets desperate. And it's like that we got to do something. Like I hope multiple blown saves happen for teams like the Phillies. whoever are already looking for bullpen alp and are like no no no we got we got to do something we got

we got to get somebody we can get the end-over-leaver of the year from last year we can get them and then forks a small ransom and it works out for the cardals that's what i'm hoping for because it's got to be something to make it worthwhile to move them and then you know he can go on and sign a bigger deal someplace else but if there's not a significant return coming and the cardals are still in striking distance of this wild card or even the division then keeping him might be in the cards, no pun intended. So we'll see how it all plays out. Let me know what your thoughts on the Cardinals,

possibly keeping Ryan Helsley now instead of trading him away. We're going to do some pitching grades for the first half next. Plus look at the upcoming series in Arizona, who features one of my favorite players in the league. We'll get into that next on Lockdown Cardinals. We've all been there, logging on early, waiting forever, watching the clock tick away when we try to buy concert tickets. When they go on sale and you're in line, you're like in that virtual line waiting for him.

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We did those position player grades for the first half yesterday. So I appreciate everyone who watched and listened and wrote back about it. You guys are awesome. Today we're going to do pitchers starting with the rotation. And when you talk about the Cardinals rotation, you got to start at the top with their number one, Sunny Gray. People get mad at me when I use the word ace, so I won't say it, even though I just did. But last year, you know, there were mixed feelings on what Sunny did as a St. Louis Cardle. coming over from Minnesota. Some thought he did a solid job. I was one of those. Others felt he was

underwhelming after finishing second in the Cy Young while with the twins. Here in 2025, he's nine and three. Got an ERA of 3.50. Wins are up. The ERA is down from last year. So people seem to like that. But his strikeouts per nine are also down from 11 to 9.8 from a year ago. and the opponent's batting average against is up from 228 to 241. But his strikeout to walk ratio is awesome. It's better at 6.21. In fact, that 6.21 strikeout to walk ratio is second best in all of baseball. Only AL-Sye Young Award winner, Terik Scoobal, is higher than Sunny Gray right now at a preposterous 9.56.

It's disgusting how big is this. So my grade for Sunny Gray, first half of the season this year, I'm going to give him a B. But I think he's closer to an A. He's had three really bad outings against the Angels, against Philly, and then Milwaukee. That have skewed his numbers a bit outside of those three games, he's been incredible. He'd be an A if those three games didn't exist. So I've loved what I've seen from Sunny this year. There are some people who will never be happy with Sunny Gray because they feel like that he,

he's the guy that is supposed to be the ace and he's not as dominant as some of the other aces around the league. And that's fair. You can say that. But he just happens to be the number one in St. Louis doesn't mean he'd be the number one in a lot of other places. And I think he's done a good job. So I'm going to give him a beat. Matthew Libertor.

Team took a risk in moving him from the bullpen to the rotation, but it's proved to be the right move, not only for this year, but for the future, because Matthew Libertor is worth a hell of a lot more as a starter than he was as a setup man for you in the bullpen. Six and seven record, 4.13 ERA. That doesn't jump off the page at you by any means, but also remember he's a young pitcher.

He's 25, and this is his first full season as a starter. so there's going to be growing pains. There's going to be learning moments. He had that rough three games stretch at the end of May going into June, and his last outing wasn't very good at all against Atlanta. But personally, I'm very encouraged from what I've seen from Matthew Libertor so far this year. I think he has shown that he's got quite a nice future as a member of this rotation. Certainly somebody who should be in the top three of your rotation moving forward after this year.

I feel he's the number two behind Sunny Gray so far. I've been very impressed. I'm going to give him a B grade. It's closer to a C because some of the underlying things, opponents are hitting a whopping 263 against him. That has got to come down. That's the third worst batting average against in the National League. That's got to be better.

He's got to pump up the swing and miss. If he can do that, we'd really be talking about something special. But grade B, closer to a C, but not a bad grade. Eric Fetty, massive disappointment, right? Mentioned his stats earlier. Five and 14 is a Cardinal overall this year. He's three and nine. The ERA is at 4.83.

First nine games of the season, too, weren't bad at all. Had that brilliant game against the Nationals. Complete game shutout. Follows that up with another beauty against the Philadelphia Phillies. And then things have just crumbled and have gone south. His last 10 starts, he's 0 and 6. The team is just 2 and 8, and he's got an ERA of 6.41. None of that is good at all.

Opponents are also hitting 263 against him, just like Libby. That you can't live up there. It's just not feasible. And he's like most of these guys. They don't have swing and miss stuff. Ball's going to be put in play. You miss your spots. You're going to get hit pretty freaking hard.

I gave him a D grade. D is in dog. And it sucks because now, even if you want to flip him at the trade deadline, who's giving up anything for Eric Fetty? He's on an expiring contract. I assume somebody will be willing if they're desperate, but you're kind of stuck with them. Like if nobody calls and says, hey, you know, what would it take to get Fetty out of there?

then you're stuck with them and he's got to you just keep pitching him. I don't know because you want to see some of these younger guys pitch, but maybe he turns it around, but probably not. So grade D. Miles Michael is the lizard king has not been that bad. I repeat, he has not been that bad. I expected much worse this year after having seen what opponents had done to him in recent years. But here's the other thing. Miles is what he is. And to expect more than that, that's your own fault.

To expect him to be all-star caliber, Miles Michaelis, like he was a few years ago. If that's what you envision when you see Miles Michaelis on the mouth, that's your fault. That's a you problem because that's not who he is. He's five and six. The area is at 4.948, right? Gross. You don't want that. Opponents are hitting 269 against him.

Chip Carey Spell. which is the worst of the starting five in the Cardinals rotation. And he has been shmammered on four occasions this year. The Boston Massacre, as we call it, nine runs in two and two-thirds innings. Toronto got him for six and five innings. Cleveland got him for six and four innings. Then in Chicago, eight in six innings. That's 29 runs.

So I kind of did some digging here and was like, all right, 29, he's given up 53. So 29 of his 53 runs are in four games. Dare I say outside of those four games, the same way I say with Sunny, he's actually been all right, 2.87 ERA, if my math is correct, that I think it is, in 14 starts. I gave him a grade C because that's what Miles Michaelis is. It is Michaelis Rulet.

Anytime he goes out on the mound, he could get destroyed. or he could give you five solid hittings, but that's what he is. He is what he is. Grade C, because I expect him to get pummeled pretty much every time he goes out there. And when he doesn't, which 14 of his 19 starts, he hasn't.

I mean, that's pretty good. Andre Palante is 5 and 5 with a 4.49 ERA. Hasn't been as good as he was in the second half last year. Serviceable fifth man, right? on a really good day, he gets a ton of ground balls. He's 62.4% ground ball rate so far this year. But sometimes they find holes. And that's the risky take with a pitch-to-contact groundball guy.

Sometimes they find holes. Lack of swing and miss will always hurt him. And so far this year, he's at a career low, 5.7 strikeouts per nine, and has already given up 14 home runs, which is a new career high. I think nine was his career high before this. So he's well past that and he's still got the second half of the season to go. So I'm disappointed in what we got from Palante this year. So I'm going to be mean grade D as a dog.

Because with the defensive infield that the Cardinals have a symbol, where you've got gold glove caliber guys, a third, short, second, in even Catreras is having a really good year first. And for his numbers to still be this bad, it's just disappointing. So I'm going to be hardcore on him. You get a D, Andre Palante. Michael McGreevy has made just three starts. Stephen Mads has made two.

But the Cardinals, in a way, have been very fortunate to have their five main guys healthy in the first half. Some say they wish that some of these guys were injured and let other people pitch like a McGreevy, maybe like Matt's, but honestly, you just need, I'm fine with Sunny Gray, Matthew Libertor, but those other three guys just either have to be better or you have to replace them with guys who have a higher ceiling to be better. Guys like McGreeby and Quinn Matthews and Toccoa Robe, you know, we're anxious to see those guys instead of the three that you got in there right now. Palante's going to be around.

He'll be around next year. I mean, he's not going anywhere. So you're replacing. facing Fetty and Michaelis and McGreevy's going to take one of those spots for sure. So it's Matthews or Roby. Roby has had a better year and has stayed healthy. So I'm excited for both of them. But if there's a guy that's going to get pulled up this year, it might be Toccoa Roby first. We're going to move on to the bullpen next. And plus we're going to look at the Arizona Diamondback series. We'll preview the pitching matchups.

And we'll talk about, again, one of my favorite players in the league who plays for them. So that's all coming up on Lockdown Cardinals. Thank you again for making Lockdown Cardinals. Your first listen today for your second list and check out the all-new Locked on MLB game night. Every game every night, get local analysis on a national scale. You can find it on Lockdown, MLB on YouTube or wherever you listen to your podcast. So another area that the Cardinals have been in good health this year has been in their

bullpen. The main core of Helsley, Mayton, Romero, Leahy, King, Matt. No issues answering the phone when Ali, calls down to them to come into games. And that's a very reassuring thing to have. Not a lot of teams have that. You see other teams around the league just scrambling for help. They're just looking for any sort of able arms to pitch for them. The Cardinals haven't had that problem. They've been scrambling to find quality arms at the bottom portion of the bullpen to step up. And it looks like they might have found a couple guys. But it should be commended how healthy that this pitching staff has

been able to stay both rotation and bullpen. So that's not an easy thing to do. So let's start with Helsley. We talked about him plenty early on. Strikeouts are down, hits, walks, they're up. They kill his fastball. The slider is a weapon. It's really, really good. But when you don't have anything else to fool the hitters, it makes him less effective. If they stay off the slider and don't chase it and just look fastball and clobber it like they have been, you see him struggle. And I've said it before, dude needs like a, splitter to go with that slider fastball and he'd be nasty. If he could figure that out, he'd be nasty.

But he doesn't have that. He doesn't really throw that curveball anymore. The 12-6 that he used to throw has just quit. So it's been fastball slider over and over and over. One of them gets hit all the time. The other one does not. Grade C, because he still saved 19 out of 24 opportunities, fourth highest total in the NL when it comes to saves.

But opponents are hitting 260 against him. And that's rough. And it seems like every time he's in the game, there is traffic on the bases somehow, some way. And it's stressful. It's very stressful. Phil Meaton, signed late, has been as solid as you can ask him to be. Every reliever is going to have a hiccup from time to time.

It's part of the game. And it normally happens at a very inopportune time when you're a relief pitcher. You know, there's never a good time to give up a three-run homer. And that happened to him against Atlanta. You know, the last outing gave up the home run. First home run he's given up this year. But the dude has been a rock. Has appeared in 37 games this season,

has now given up runs in just four of those appearances twice by Atlanta. So good thing we don't have to see them anymore because he has an issue with the Braves, apparently. But everybody else he's really good against. I'm giving him an A. I'm giving Phil Maidon an A. I got nothing but nice things to say about him. Stone cold on the mound. no emotion.

You couldn't tell whether somebody just gave him a million dollars or kicked him in the cup. You have no idea. He same face all the time. We'd love to keep Phil Meantan in a cardinal uniform. But if I'm a playoff team, I'd be a fool not to call the Cardinals about him if they decided to move people. You'd be a fool. Hopefully you get something good. Jojo Romero.

Issues with the velocity early on this year, but got it. figured out after learning to re-engage his hips while swinging golf clubs at top golf. That's a true story. None of the Cardinals coordinators or anybody figured it out. He did it himself while golfing. It just clicked for him. And since May, he has made 23 appearances, has an ERA of 0.47, has allowed one earned run in 19 innings. That's getting it done.

Grade B for Jojo Romero. The only reason it's not an A is because of the slow start. It took him a little while to figure it out. But since then, he's been awesome. I have nothing but good things to say about Jojo there. Kyle Leahy had an incredible spring. Kind of came out of nowhere. Everybody's like, dude, nobody's hitting this guy.

What's up? Carried it over into the regular season where he was really, really good for a while. But then tailed off since basically the beginning of June. Over his last 14 appearances, ERAs at 4.74. he has struck out just 15 hitters and 19 innings does not have enough swinging this stuff for the high pressure rolls that Ali has had him in because he was so good early on. And as time has moved on, Ali has not used him as much because he hasn't been good enough. I'm going to give him a grade.

I'm going to go see. I'm going to give him a C because he was really good early on. But either the league has figured him out or there's something else going on. he was much better early, is not anymore. And, you know, starting to look kind of Chris Stratt-esque, really. Like, is there just nothing all that special about it. So John King, groundball guy, still gets the ground ball. 61.5% ground ball clip.

But the problem is, again, pitch to contact, they're going to find holes at some point or another. And they're constantly finding holes this year against King. are batting 311 against him and 325 against him on balls in play. So when they do hit it, one out of three times they're finding a hole, which is a massive jump from last year when he had a 258 batting average against and 280 on balls in play. So just a bad year or is this who he is?

So either way, hasn't been nearly good enough. You get a D grade D for the king. Stephen Matt's healthy all season for the first time since coming to St. Louis says then exactly what they've wanted him to be this year. The swing man, sixth man guy. He's five and two with 3.35 ERA overall. Four and two with a three point eight six ERA as reliever. He's one and no with an ERA of one and the two starts that he has made. He's another guy that I think other teams should be calling about at the trade deadline because he can do both if you need him to pitch five innings. He can do that for you. You need him to cover long relief and get you two. three innings. He can do that for you. He's a left-hander. And he's healthy this year,

which has made a huge difference for Stephen Matt. So I'm going to give Stephen Matt to grade B today. As far as the other guys go, these are the two guys that I mentioned that seem to have finally completed the bullpen. Riley O'Brien, Matt Sonson, pitched pretty darn well recently. They've kind of filled the bottom part of the bullpen. And if some deals get made, I think they will see more significant roles for sure moving forward. Not sure what the Cardinals want to do with Gordon Grecepho yet, whether they're thinking starter. Is he a long reliever?

I don't know. I don't know what he's doing. But I've seen some heavy velo out of him, which excites me as somebody that hopefully will have some swing and miss in the bullpen, certainly shown upside, as well as Andre Grenio, who was up here for a little bit. I didn't think he looked that bad. So I'm a little shocked.

He hasn't gotten a longer look yet. but when you've got Svonson and O'Brien doing well, there's nowhere else to really put him. So Ryan Fernandez, remember him, pitched very well for the Cardinals last year, rule five pick imploded early on this year was just ghastly awful, has pitched much better in June and July with Memphis. It was still a struggle for him for a while there.

I kept an eye on. I'm just kind of like, dude, is this guy toast out of nowhere? But June and July went much better for him at Memphis. He should get another shot in St. Louis. us at some point. What they need is some left-hand of bullpen help, really. A lot of decent right-handers. But if Matt's is gone and, you know, King's been ineffective, they need someone besides Jojo out there who can pitch from the left-hand side. So that is something that I think the Cardinals need to seriously look at and work on. Arizona this weekend to get the

second half started, swept them at Bush Stadium back in May, but very competitive games. All three games were one run games. It'll be Andre Palante against Brandon Fought in game one tonight. Fought's got nine wins this year, but an ERA over five, certainly somebody you can hit. Sunny Gravers, Ryan Nelson on Saturday, Nelson has been very impressive over his last six starts. His last start wasn't all that good. It was the weakest of them, but the previous five were really, really good. So that's somebody that is starting to, you know, impress the guys in Arizona. then on Sunday you got Michaelis against Merrill Kelly who has had a solid year as well. He's a guy that you're, you've actually heard rumors that the Cardinals would be interested in bringing in.

But he's somebody that, you know, if Arizona decides to make some moves, that Merrill Kelly is probably somebody that gets traded away. When it comes to their offense, my guy, Corbyn Carroll, love this dude, table center of the team, one of my favorite players in the league, not tall, not big. He's a little dude, but he's got. got pop. He's got speed. He plays good defense. I love everything about him. Coming back from the IL, cracked his, I think it was his wrist, a bone in his wrist when he got hit by a pitch, but came back before the All-Star break. struggled when he got back from the All-Star break, but hit a home run in the All-Star game.

Should be nice and healed up by now, so you got to watch out for him. A. E. U. Hedio Suarez, also an All-Star Club 31 Dinger at the Hot Corner already this year. Trade rumors have been swirling about him. maybe going back to Seattle, but he's a guy that you just got to keep him in the yard. You know, don't want him kill you with, you know, a three-run bomb in a certain situation. So that's the danger there. And then, of course, Catel Marte, their team MVP, another incredible season, hitting 290, 19 home runs, 40 RBI. He's an absolute B switch hitter. Just love everything about Catee.

He's been something else. And they've got other guys, like, you know, role players, I don't want to say role, but like they're just surrounding those three guys. You know, Geraldo Perdomo has been excellent. Josh Naylor has been awesome over at first. Lordis Garreal Jr. Fantastic players, Alec Thomas in Centerfield, constantly making highlight real catches in Center Field.

That's his thing. He's more of a defensive guy than an offensive guy. Almost made that catch against Aronado when he hit that, that triple off of him, that Bush Stadium. He almost caught that. He's been making those catches more times than that. So obviously he's pretty good. But it's hard to believe that this team hasn't been better than their record of 47 and 50.

A lot of injuries in the bullpen have added to that. So got to take advantage of that if you can get through the starters, get to that bullpen and eat. Thanks for making locks on Cardinals for first listen. Every day if you haven't already, please give us a follow on X at L1 underscore Cardinals at a JD Sports Radio. TikTok, Instagram, and Locked on Cardinals, like, subscribe on YouTube, help our channel and our love for the Cardinals grow. You guys are the best fans in baseball for a reason.

I got to get my wife to the airport. She's headed into Vegas. Let's go see the backstreet boys. We'll see you next time on lockdown cartels.