Locked On Cardinals - Daily Podcast On The St. Louis Cardinals - MLB Pitching Market Might Favor The Cardinals

Episode Date: December 3, 2024

- Nolan Arenado Continues To Tease - Pitching Market Trends - Steven Matz - Miles Mikolas - Erick Fedde Follow & Subscribe on all Podcast platforms… 🎧 https://link.chtbl.com/LOSTLCardinals?sid=YouTube Locked On MLB League-Wide: Every Team, Prospects & More 🎧 https://linktr.ee/LockedOnMLB Follow on Twitter/X: @JDSPORTSRADIO Follow the show on Twitter/X: @LO_Cardinals Support Us By Supporting Our Sponsors! Gametime Download the Gametime app, create an account, and use code LOCKEDONMLB for $20 off your first purchase. Terms apply. Download Gametime today. What time is it? Gametime. FanDuel You can start the season with a big return on FanDuel. New customers can place a FIVE DOLLAR bet and you’ll get started with ONE HUNDRED AND FIFTY DOLLARS in BONUS BETS - if you win your first FIVE DOLLAR BET ! Visit FANDUEL.COM to get started. FANDUEL DISCLAIMER: 21+ in select states. First online real money wager only. Bonus issued as nonwithdrawable free bets that expires in 14 days. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit FanDuel.com/RG (CO, IA, MD, MI, NJ, PA, IL, VA, WV), 1-800-NEXT-STEP or text NEXTSTEP to 53342 (AZ), 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org/chat (CT), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (WY, KS) or visit ksgamblinghelp.com (KS), 1-877-770-STOP (LA), 1-877-8-HOPENY or text HOPENY (467369) (NY), TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN) #ForTheLou #stlcards #mlb #lockedoncardinals Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

is the MLB pitching market trending in a direction that will now be beneficial for the Cardinals. We'll talk about it today on Locked on Cardinals. You are Locked on Cardinals, your daily St. Louis Cardinals podcast, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. Hey there, Cardinals. I'm J.D. Haffer and I'm your host for Lockdown Cardinals. Part of the Lockdown Podcast Network covering your team every day. You can follow me on TwitterX at Jadie Sports Radio and the podcast.

at L.O underscore Cardinals. We want to thank those of you who make Locked on Cardinals your first list in every day. I don't know if you know this, but we are free and available wherever you get your podcast. And you can find this on YouTube. We have passed the 11,000 subscriber mark pushing our way to 12,000. Maybe all these trade rumors and stuff will get us there sooner rather than later. But if you haven't stopped by yet, please do so like, subscribe, hit the notification button so you don't miss a single episode because this is a show serving Cardle Nation and giving the best fans in baseball, all of info about the birds on the bat today's episode brought to you by game time download the game

time app create an account use the code locked on mowb for $20 off your first purchase first and foremost want to welcome in our good buddy thomas govade from redward rants dot com tommy tuesdays all right we're back oh yeah we're on it how was your thanksgiving buddy everything go well yeah it was great went back to st louis be with my family spent a few days there It was pretty relaxed. I was yours. Not too shabby. Pretty usual.

A way too much because I don't know how about you in your household, but like, do they expect you to like eat two, three, four plates of food? Because I've got this, I don't know, this legacy that I'm trying to live up to of uncles and grandfathers and stuff who just crush food. And I do a pretty good job, but like there's only so much of that stuff you can handle before it's like I'm going to barf. Yeah, I'm not quite at that level. My family is relatively like one plate and then get any extras you want specifics.

Like if you want more turkey, you go back for just turkey, that kind of thing. But I'm a dessert guy. So I'll eat a full meal and then like two or three different types of desserts. I've got a sweet tooth that kills me probably. Atta boy. Atta boy. Nothing to be ashamed about there because we all like that stuff just as much as you do. We also like talking about the Cardinals, trade rumors, people they're going to sign.

You know, it's that time of year where, you know, everything is kind of up in the year. Now, we know the direction that the Cardinals are going to go into this year is more about subtracting people as opposed to adding people. Of course, through free agency. Now some trades might come about. The big name that everybody's been talking about and, you know, he's been stirring the pot on his own is, our third basement, Nolan Aranada, who yes, is still a member of the St. Louis Cardinals, but it appears, according to recent posts by him, that he's got his mind elsewhere, specifically with the Los Angeles Dodgers.

I'm sure you've seen the posts already. I'll put him up there on the screen for you guys. There's one of them where he's got the song, Dodger Blue, playing in the background. And then he's got this one where, you know, the person's talking about him being a future, Dodger perhaps and you know you don't just post that up there because you just like oh that's fine run a sweet person no there's got to be some meaning behind this right or am I wrong Thomas am I reading too much into this I don't I think it'd be hilarious if he's just pranking all those he knows we're all scouring his social media I turned on notifications for him which I have

I don't even have notifications from my wife on Instagram I don't think but now we've got Nolan Arrado just to see what happens I think he might be playing a prank on us. The Dodgers seem like a team that he's always wanted to go to realistically. So it could be either way. It's just social media in the end, though. And I think a lot of people are just bored with the offseason at the moment. And this is what they're, they're grasping at straws at the moment. We certainly are. You know, you know, when you come into this offseason and you're talking about a team that isn't going to be actively in the free agent market when it comes to any positions, really, you know, most of the stuff that they're going to be doing

is just adding people from their own organization, bringing them up, put them on the 40, man. That was the exciting news for the Cardinals. It's a little bit different this year. But obviously trading Nolan Arnada was something that feels at least to me benefits both sides. It makes a lot of sense. There are some hangups of why this is, you know, we're seeing these little hints from Nolan about where he might want to be. But it's probably something that's not going to happen for a little while.

got the winter meetings coming up on December the 9th, and maybe we'll see some movement there. But, you know, the big shoe has yet to drop. And we're talking about Juan Soto, which is one of the hangups of why Nolan Arnano trade is, you know, on the back burner for teams like the Yankees and, like the Dodgers. Also, Alex Bregman is a name that, you know, people who are trying to upgrade at the third base position, they're going to be interested in Alex Breggman, I'm sure, too. So those are a couple of things that probably have to take place first before anything with Nato goes down, right? Yeah, absolutely. It's all going to start with Soto. And then whoever doesn't get him, whether it be the Yankees, the Dodgers, the Mets, the Red Sox.

They're all going to be itching to fill, to spend that money elsewhere. It could be free agency, Peter Lanzo, Alex Bregman, William Domas, even. And then it'll be Nolan Aronado from there. I've been reading it a little bit. Katie Wu and Derek Gould said that the winter meetings. will be where we can expect some more news regarding no one Ardado, but until the other guy's sign, I don't really see us getting any real concrete rumors or evidence of the trade.

Just to get your opinion on this, and this really doesn't have a whole lot to do with the Cardinals at all, but Juan Soto, if you had to predict where you think he's going to land, because I saw a report that the Toronto Blue Jays are ready to give up their firstborn. They don't care. They're going to spend money. This is, you know, the final years for Bichet. and Guerrero Jr. on their current deals, they're ready to go all in.

Do you believe in that, or do you think he's going to stay in the States? And where would you suspect to land? It seems like every week it's a new team that gets like these reports that he's signed. Red Sox a couple weeks ago, now it's Blue Jays. I think it's got to be the Mets. I mean, Steve Cohen's going to fork over whatever he can to get his guy. And he has the ability to do so. So if I had to put money down, it'd be the Mets right now who gets soda.

imagine how mad Yankees fans are going to be if that took place. Like to have Red Fox or the Mets, honestly, they'll be curious. I wonder what would upset them more, Boston or the Mets. But I just, I don't know, switching over to the other side of the city, hey, I'm still New York, but I'm not a Yankee anymore. I don't know. I wonder how that would go over. It might be really, really interesting.

Well, something that has gotten interesting and this does have a lot more to do with the Cardinals is what's going on with the, the starting pitcher market right now because you're starting to see a little bit of movement there. We're seeing some signings. And Thomas is going to give us some insight on what he thinks, what has happened so far, what that means for what the Cardinals have in their rotation right now. And it could mean that their values are trending up. We'll get into it next with Thomas Covane from Redwood Brants.com on Locked on Cardinals. There's not a whole lot of things better than going to a live sporting

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All of this is coming up in December, and GameTime has got your hookup on tickets there with flash deals. It's just, it's so smart to go with the GameTime app. Takes all the guesswork out. It's brilliant. Download the GameTime app, create an account. Use the code locked on MLV. You're going to get $20 off your first purchase.

terms apply, create an account, redeem code, locked on MLB, that's L-O-C-K-E-D-O-N-M-L-B for $20 off. Download game time today, last minute, ticket's lowest price, guaranteed. Thank you again for making Locked on Cardinals, your first list in every day. You can leave your comments on YouTube as well as on Twitter X anytime you want your feedback. Always welcome and encouraged Thomas Govain from Redmond's.com. Joining me, you can find him at Thomas Govane on Twitter X as well. And, you know, if you have any ideas about a Nolan Aranato trade or any of the Cardinals players that might be available, feel free to send them our way. And we can discuss it here on Locked on Cardinals.

So the market for starting pitchers, we did see another reliever get taken today. I rolled this Chapman, apparently signing with the Red So he's out of the division again, which is great because it feels like Cardinals don't have a lot of success against him. But the starting pitcher market is something we want to talk about. Blake Snell obviously signs with the Dodgers, five years, 182 million, defers a bunch of that, blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Frankie Montas, who was also in the division last year for two teams, Reds and the Brewers agreed to a two-year, $34 million deal with the Mets, includes an opt-out after 2025.

Matthew Boyd has signed a $29 million deal with the Cubs over two years. You had the U.S.a Kikuchi signing with the Angels, three years, $63 million. That's an average annual value of $21 million. Obviously, we've still got some pretty big names out there, Thomas, Corbyn Burns, Max Fried from the Braves. So there's still a lot to go through before we know exactly what the top of the market is. You know, Blake Snow, obviously that was huge. but, you know, Burns and Freed could land as big or bigger deals just because they're a little bit younger than Blake Snell is already. So what are your thoughts on the signings and how does that affect some of the names that the Cardinals could be shopping?

Because, you know, we've got an Eric Fetty that's just kind of sitting here. We got a Miles Michael. It's just kind of sitting here. What are your thoughts on that? Yeah, I've always been surprised. So with Kukuchi, Montos, and Boyd, I was very surprised when I saw their AV. Cucucci's getting $21 million. Montas is getting, what was it, $17 million,

and then Boyd's getting almost $15 million on their average annual values. And we've got pitchers that are probably better and are closer, like cheaper at least. I mean, even if you look at Sunny Gray, who's not on the trade market for us, he's only $4 million more expensive than Kikuchi, and he has been significantly better for the last three years than Kukuchi was. So that's a win in my book. paying Gray more, it's backloaded, but on an annual average annual value basis,

Gray is a much better picture for pretty much the exact same price. So these deals tell me a couple of things. One, it's good we're staying out of the free agent market. These contracts are ridiculous. And if we're trying to save money while being competitive, we can throw out Michael McGreevy and Gordon Grycefo and Andre Palante for a fraction of the price and get comparable results, which is great. That's part of the reset plan, at least. And then second and more importantly, it tells me that our pitcher's just got a lot more valuable on the trade market, especially Eric Fetty, Stephen Mats, and even Miles Michaels to an extent. Fetty is half the price, at least of those three guys who just signed. And last year, he was significantly better

than all three of them. Mats is a very interesting case study with Boyd. They've both been very hurt the last few years when they've played they've been fine depending on their roles but stephen matts is owed four million dollars less than matthew boyd is so that his value went up and even miles michaelis could fetch something a lot of his value is in his ability to make starts while also being decent his walk rate has dropped but he's still a pretty good pitcher yeah and then you know you do have other names that are still out there you know a guy that's kind of getting lost in all of this is a former Cardinal and Jack Flaherty where, I mean, I feel like he's not getting talked about nearly enough considering how good he was with the Tigers and the Dodgers at the end of things

last year. I mean, he was finally able to stay healthy and he just kind of took it to that next level. You know, this was the guy that the Cardinals thought they were going to get for years and years and years and couldn't stay on the field and he finally all clicked for him last year. That on himself with that deal that he signed with the Tigers. it seems like he should be able to cash in, but you just don't hear his name being brought up as much as I've heard some other names. You know, there's a Sean Mania who was still out there on the market.

Nick Pavetta is going to be out there. Nathan Evaldi. Severino, Rees Severino is another one. Andrew Heaney is a guy that's had some success over the year. But this is something that when I see these prices and everything, And the more I look at it, the more it, sure, maybe I'm got the Cardinal Red goggles on here. But it just, to me, it makes so much sense that like, dude, we cannot just keep doing this.

This is ridiculous. And as much as I've made fun of like the Miles Michael's contract over the last couple years, you're starting to see guys who just are kind of average like Miles is. And they're making more than him now. Yeah, it's almost become a market value contract. his ERA is terrible. Don't think of it in any other way, but he still has value to throw

180 innings a year and be, you know he's going to get the ball every fifth day. He's not going to give your team a chance to win every single time, but he had 16 quality starts last year. There's value in that. He's not a valueless pitcher anymore, even if he is

worth $18 million. Yeah. One of the National League executives here said that I don't view either of these signings as having any wide-scale ripple effect. Both signings simply reinforced that starting pitching remains expensive on the free agent market.

And that's obviously something that the Cardinals are trying to get away from. They are trying not to actively spend that much money on these things, especially, like you said, you can get similar results from younger guys, like a Palante and like a Michael McGreevy. And, you know, you've got other guys. guys coming up through the systems. You got a team Kent and you got a Quinn Matthews and you're hoping that

they continue to be the guys you hope they will be prospect wise and are able to pan out at the major league level. So for me, it makes a whole lot of sense. It blows my mind that some teams are still trying to, I mean, I get why the Mets and these guys that just don't care about money, why they would just go out and buy people. But like, watching the angel side, Kikuchi, I was like, wait, what are you guys doing? They just continue to pass. Yeah, that question can be asked of the angels for the last half decade probably. Exactly, exactly. All right.

But we're going to talk more about, you know, what makes Stephen Mats worth more? You know, we brought up why Miles Michaelis is going to have, at least we think, somewhat of trade value here in a bit. But why Stephen Mats might be worth even more here. And just a few minutes, we'll have more with Thomas Gavain coming up on Locked on Cardinals. Get ready to tackle the NFL action with Fandul America's number one sports book because right now new customers can bet $5 and get $150 and bonus bets. If you win, the Fandil Sports app gives you everything you need to play flat bets on the NFL all in one place. I mentioned that I was at the Bengals and Steelers game on Sunday and you can just sense the trend that things were going to be a very high scoring game. There's going to be a lot of offense coming up on Thursday night.

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NFL. Thank you again for making Locked on Cardinals, your first listen today for your second list and find Locked on MLB. Baseball guru Sully, bringing you a daily blend of humor in baseball, keeping you updated on all the teams during this off season. Juan Soto Sweepstakes, where's Corbord Burns going to go? Max Freed,

Willie Adamas, all the big names. He's got you covered. He's got it. The whole league under his thumb there. Find Locked on MLB on YouTube or wherever you listen to your podcast. Once again, Thomas Gauveen from Redbird Rance.com joining us here today. If you're watching on YouTube, my face is now unfrozen, which is good.

Saw Christmas with the cranks over the weekend again, Thomas, and there's that scene where he gets the Botox and his face is all frozen. That's what I look like on YouTube there for just a second. At least it wasn't one of those ugly faces that got paused on. Yeah, right. Everything was standing still. So apologies for the YouTube crowd. For those of you listening to the audio, you have no idea what I'm talking about.

so don't worry about. We're talking about the pitchers that the Cardinals have at their disposal. If they're really going to reset things, I'm not expecting them to trade everybody, but obviously there's going to be some interest in some of these guys now when, you know, teams around the league know that the Cardinals are trying to drop salary. So, look, I like Michaelis at 17.6. of course he's got a no trade clause so we've got to think about that but stephen mats and Eric Fetty are extremely cheap considering what this market is looking like now.

Eric Fetty I think it's seven and a half million right now and you mentioned that he's significantly better than some of these pitchers that just signed some lucrative deals already. So with one year remaining, you're not on the hook for any long-term deals. That makes a lot of sense for people to come knocking on Mo and Heim Bloom's door. to see if they're, hey, you interested in moving Eric Fetty? If you, just your opinion, you're playing GM right now. Is Eric Fetty somebody you're actively trying to move, or do you think he's somebody you want to hang on to until the trade deadline?

Oh, gosh, it's tough. I'd probably try and trade him, especially right now. They've got the full year of control with them. They can get him at, whoever trades for him can get him in at spring training, as opposed to three months of a starting pitcher. You're getting a full six, seven months of him. I think I try and trade Feddy right now. I don't know if his market will be any better at the trade deadline.

I know urgency sometimes bumps up prices, but there's a lot of rental starting pitchers who will be available then. Now, Feddy is probably the best cheap, tradable starting pitcher on the market. It kind of coincides with my feelings towards Ryan Housley, where people are like, well, won't he be worth a lot more at the deadline next year? and I'm like, that's a risk, man, because what if he gets hurt? Because we know how things are with pitchers, man. That's something going to happen and boom, you're screwed.

And, you know, he's likely going to regress a little bit from what happened last year. I pointed out some numbers in our last episode about how things haven't been training great for Howellsley, you know, the strikeout numbers are coming down a little bit. He's getting hit a little bit more. So, you know, he because he won this award and, you know, it seems like, He's this record-setting guy for the Cardinals that, you know, his trade value probably not going to be much higher than where it is now. So that's why it makes sense to try to move him this offseason and do the same thing where you're selling him.

You're like, well, you get a whole year of him now instead of just a couple of months of him. Stephen Matt's is another guy who it's been a tough go for him in a Cardinals uniform. The injuries constantly keep him on the sidelines. And, you know, like we said, a couple of years ago, you're talking about, God, I've paid this guy $11 million a year. This is ridiculous. Now that's bargain basement money. What are some of the reasons why Stephen Mats might be attractive to other teams looking

for some help in their rotation? He has been semi-healthy recently. I know 2023 was probably his best season with the Cardinals since they signed him. He threw over 100 innings that year. His ERA was pretty strong. the bulk of his value at this point is probably as a reliever. Out of the 197 innings he's thrown for the Cardinals since they signed him, he has a 2.43 ERA as a reliever in a portion of those innings,

which is very strong, especially for a left-handed pitcher. He has not been as good as a starter, but he could still be a swing man, built up to throw five innings if they need him to, or they throw him in a bulk roll in the bullpen. Yeah, I completely agree with you because that was why I was kind of like a trick question for you because like I was like, oh, the rotation and that's not really where I feel his value is either. I think it's going to be as reliever and as we're starting to see, the trend continues where like if a pitcher goes five innings, give him a medal. That's amazing.

Like, you know, all of the Cardinal fans that, you know, grew up or are aware of what Bob Gibson used to do. Obviously, like these guys are women. are whims. They don't know. This is ridiculous. This guy used to throw 180 pitches a game and it's just, it's just not the way things are anymore. You know, your bullfin is becoming almost as important as your starter these days. And if you got a guy like a Stephen Matt's who can give you two winnings, sometimes maybe even three, if you got to stretch them or whatever, that's going to be pretty valuable. And at $11 million with the ability to be in your rotation, if you need them too. If you need to make a spot start or something, I think it makes a whole lot of sense for

some of these other teams to be interested in. And if the Cardinals can unload that contract and bringing a guy like maybe like Zach Thompson to be in a similar role, you know, I still don't know what his future is with the team, former first round pick. But that's who he kind of reminds me of is kind of like a Stephen Mattsy type of person. So maybe that's something that they, you know, end up using him for. I don't know. But you got to clear spot. lots to do these things. So I don't know. If you had a place of bet, Fetty, Michaelis, or Mats?

In what order do you think they are more likely to get dealt during this offseason? I think Matt's is the most likely, followed by Feddy, and then Michaelis. You and I have talked about this before. Miles Michaelis is apparent, no trade clause, which is baffling. That makes his deal pretty hard because, A, I don't know who would want to. him and B, I don't know if you would want to go to that team too. He seems to like St. Louis quite a bit. Fetty is pretty easy to move with his low price, but the Cardinals may want to hold

on to him. Stephen Mats is reasonably priced, reasonable talent, no trade clause. Teams could be interested, and the Cardinals seem interested in moving him. So he's probably the most likely than Fetty and Michaelis. That makes sense. And the other side of it too is like, you know, as much as we would like, yeah, let's go get some assets for him. I don't know if they have enough starting pitchers that can fill all these spots if they trade too many of them away.

You know what I mean? Like I'm just not sure. Like so it's kind of like, you know, I would love to see them start the season with with Sunny and Fetty as kind of their one-toos and then go from there because Michael is probably not going to get dealt. But, and then you've got those two other spots down there for Palante and McGreevy. but you know, I'm wondering like where are they with other guys that they could move up into the starting rotation if there's so much interest in these guys where they're kind of like, dude, we got to kind of make a deal. Don't we? We can't just sit on this. So I just don't know if they have enough guys who are ready to step up and do that. But maybe they do. Maybe maybe a guy like a Zach Thompson becomes one of those guys. I again, I'm not sure what kind of role they're looking at with him so far. But then of course in your back pocket. What if Quinn Matthews comes out in spring training is awesome? You know, what if he's, and the only reason I'm going to say this is just because he's,

you know, the top talented guy, but what if he's kind of Paul Skeen's awesome in spring training where it's like, it's like, how do you not bring this guy up? You know, again, we're not talking about a 20 year old that you're worried about arm issues. You're talking about a guy who was in college. And if you can get something from him this year that, excites people and excites your fan base and gives them a reason to come down to the ballpark, I feel like the Cardinals kind of got to do that, don't they? Yeah, I think so too.

They might won't hold on to it just for time manipulation because they don't plan on competing in 2025. If 26 through 2030 is their window that they're looking at, they want Quinn Matthews to be controllable throughout those years. I also think it's possible that they can trade starting pitchers for prospects and then trade Nolan Aronado for a starting pitcher as backfill. Like they could work chess and puzzles and make all these things fall into place. It'll take time and we won't see it until February, but it's possible that all these things work together.

Yeah, and that's something that I brought up too is that if a Nolan Aronado deal goes down and you're able to, you know, I mean, how many starting pitchers are the Dodgers really going to need, especially if you Sasaki somebody that they think they're going to be able to land and you got with Snell and you got all these other guys, maybe they'll be a little more lenient, was the word I used, with some of their starting pitching prospects because they got like three or four of them that are ready to roll.

And I just keep going, if you really don't want Bobby Miller, we'll take it. That's just about to say his name. You know, I would love to see it. You know, I know he had a rough year last year after just absolutely annihilating the Cardinals, but there's just so much talent there. And it's like if that's something maybe they're ready to punt on, cool I'll take it or like you know you have what like Grove and you've got there's there's like four or five of these guys that hey we we could we could use them

to fill some of these spots so it sucks that it's kind of the waiting game right now these are the parts where you're like all right what's going to happen tomorrow let's go but we're not there yet we got to be I know everybody hates this word we're going to have to be patient guys we're going to have to be a little bit patient all right John Mosea lock Exactly. So, but not because we want to be because we got to wait for all these other guys to do their business first. Right. It should be entertaining when we get to the winter meetings, which is coming up on the ninth down in Dallas.

So we will keep you posted on everything that's going on. Make sure you guys are following Thomas Govain at Thomas Govain on Twitter X. And, of course, read all of his work at Redwood Rants.com. Anything new coming up that you want to tease our little audience with? Yeah, I did a whole look at the Goldschmidt-Aronado era in St. Louis and whether it was successful or not. That should go out in the next couple of days. All right. Make sure you guys check it out at Redbirdrance.com. Thomas, as always, appreciate your time.

And we'll see you again soon, okay? All right, perfect. Thank you. All right. And thank you guys for joining us here on Lockedong Cardinals and making Lockton Carnals your first list in every day. If you haven't already, give us a follow on Twitter X at L1-Wnerscore Carlin. Cardinals and the JD Sports Radio, like, subscribe on YouTube and help our channel and love for the Cardinals grow. You guys are the best fans in baseball for a reason. We will see you next time.

I'll lock down Cardinals.