Locked On Cardinals - Daily Podcast On The St. Louis Cardinals - Nolan Arenado's Future HANGS in Balance as the St. Louis Cardinals Contemplate UNLOADING him

Starting point is 00:00:00 A trade proposal involving Nolan Aranado that would net them a top 100 prospect and someone who hit over 25 home runs last season. Talk to me goose. You are locked on cardinals. Your daily St. Louis Cardinals podcast, part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. Hey there, Cardinals fans. I'm J.D. Hafer and former national radio sports anchor born and raised in St. Louis, a lifetime Cardinals fan and your host for Locktown Cardinals, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network, covering your team. team every day. Big thank you to our everydayers for being here with us throughout the season and now into the off season. If you're new to the show, welcome in. We hope you enjoy the content that we bring you. This is a show serving Cardinal Nation, giving the best fans of baseball, all of the info about the birds on the bat. Today's episode brought to you by Fandle. Right now new customers can bet just $5. And if your bet wins, you'll get $300 in bonus bets to use

Starting point is 00:00:57 across the app. Download the app today. All right, today's episode, more of your comments and thoughts in our cardinal confessions having to deal with trading. Alec Berlinson and Brendan Jonovan, which was the topic in our last episode, the World Series will begin tonight. So we'll touch on that briefly. Can the Blue Jays pull off the upset of the highly favorite Dodgers? But we start today with another trade proposal involving the St. Louis Cardinals, who at some point will eventually make some deals, right?

Starting point is 00:01:29 They're going to make some trades. Got to do it because you got to, open up some spots on the roster. Improvements need to be made. Other people have time to move on from. It's no secret that they want to move on from Nolan Aronado. He and Sunny Gray seem to be the most obvious trade pieces, but also the most complicated due to their no trade clauses.

Starting point is 00:01:53 Both are veterans with phenomenal resumes, but they also have got large salaries. and in Aronado's case, you know, he hasn't been quite the same player. I think Sonny Gray has been able to, you know, maintain his worth where Aronados continues to trickle down, let's put it nicely. But both would like to play for a team that is closer to contending for a championship than where the St. Louis Cardinals are right now. Neither have said that they want out.

Starting point is 00:02:26 They're like, get me out of here. This place is terrible. None have spoken ill about the Cardinals, but they want to win. But they understand what's going on with the big league club. And if an opportunity were to present itself to go somewhere, they'd be willing to listen. So, and this is going to sound a little bit harsh. And I don't mean to because that's just not who I am. But, you know, of the two, Aronado is the least talented and least attractive of the two right now.

Starting point is 00:02:57 the offensive numbers continue to plummet, whether that's injury induced or not. You know, he was hurt last year, but he didn't have a good year at the plate. We know this. Final line slash line of 237, 289, 377 with an OPS of a very devilish 666, an OPS plus of 87, WRC plus of 84. Remember, 100 is considered league average when it comes to OPS and WRC plus, that WRC plus ranked 18th among third baseman with the minimum of 300-plate appearances. We think he's better than that.

Starting point is 00:03:35 But is he? Is he at this point? We don't know. The positive side of things for Aronado is the glove. We know we can still pick it at third base. Now, according to the metrics, yeah, he's starting to slide defensively. He's not upper echelon like he was just a few years ago, just like the offense. was just a few years ago.

Starting point is 00:03:58 We're talking MVP's, and now we're talking below average stuff. He's not below average when it comes to the glove. But, you know, as time moves on, things start to slow down for you. Your reactions aren't as quick. The arm's not as strong. Happens with the age. It's natural. My eyeball test tells me that he's still one hell of a third baseman.

Starting point is 00:04:18 His defensive run saved was a plus six, seventh best in the league, and the out above average at plus three type of percent. sixth next to an important name about third baseman and this offseason, Alex Bregman, who was coming off the gold glove year with the Astros before he went to the Red Sox in 24. Or in 25, I should say. I'm getting on my ears confused now. And Breggman, oddly, is going to have kind of a say in what happens with Nato, depending on whether or not he ups out of his deal in Boston. Contract-wise, two years left on the deal, which is worth $42 million plus deferred money.

Starting point is 00:04:56 until 2041, the Rockies are paying 10 million of that still. So it's not a massive deal anymore. But expecting whatever team Aronado goes to to pick up a tab for all of it is probably wishful thinking. But it's not an abomination of a deal anymore by any means. Yeah, he's overpaid for what you're getting out of him at this point in his career. But he's still Nolan Aronado. So keep that in mind. He's still a name.

Starting point is 00:05:23 Now, some of these trade ideas that we've received are decent. And somewhere a little silly. This one falls on the sillier side of things in my opinion, but it's the offseason. It's Friday. I'm in a good mood. Let's entertain ourselves a little bit, shall we? So just know that this one is one of the teams who was looking to solidify their third base spot last year, if you remember, was the New York Yankees. We toyed with the idea, okay, what about Nato to the Yankees at some point?

Starting point is 00:05:50 Would that be cool? Goldie went to the Yankees. Wouldn't that be cool? Goldie and Nato back together again in New York. The Yankees decided to go with DJ LaMayhew. They used Jazz Chisholm Jr. For a little bit at third base before moving him back to second base. They traded for Ryan McMahon, who was with the Rockies.

Starting point is 00:06:06 His offense didn't do all that much after he got to New York. The glove was good last year, though. In this article, and it's really weird, written by somebody named Garrett Kerman, I can't say that I'm familiar with Garrett's work. In this particular article, he does not mention Ryan McMahon. who is still under contract until 2028 with the Yankees at 16 million per if memory serves. So not exactly sure what he's planning to do with them. Is he going to first base or something?

Starting point is 00:06:35 I don't know. But he strangely omits him from this particular trade scenario. But the deal that he maps out is this. Nolan Aronado goes from the Cardinals to the New York Yankees in exchange for pitching prospect Carlos Lagrange, which is MLB Pipeline has them as the Yankees's number two prospect, not number two pitching prospect, number two prospect. Okay. Pitching prospect Brendan Beck,

Starting point is 00:07:05 who MLB Pipelines got at number 11 in the Yankee system. We're not done yet. First baseman slash catcher Ben Rice, who hit 26 home runs for the Yankees last year. And on top of that, $10 million. The Yankees are going to give the Cardinals $10 million. Yeah, where do I sign up for whatever this guy is drinking?

Starting point is 00:07:31 And how do I sign off on this deal? Wow. Wow. Chew on that for a second. And in a moment, I'm going to tell you what he has to say about this deal. Why he, you know, the Cardinals would obviously jump at this. and why he thinks that the Yankees would do something of this magnitude. So we'll get to that coming up next on lockdown cartels.

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Starting point is 00:09:17 locked on MLB so that they know that we sent you. Very important. Rouge yet. Stop making excuses and start making moves. Thank you again for making Locked on Cardinals. First listen every day. If you've enjoyed daily Cardinals content, you can follow the podcast on X at L0 underscore Cardinals.

Starting point is 00:09:40 We're also on YouTube, TikTok and Instagram at Lockdown Cardinals. So now that we've had a chance to kind of go over that for a second, maybe you had a good laugh. When I first read it, I was like, what? That's a wild proposal there. It seems a little bit absurd in my eyes, but let's give Garrett a chance. to explain why he would do such things. First for the Yankees side of things,

Starting point is 00:10:03 the 34-year-old third baseman brings intangible qualities that align with the Yankees championship culture. It's postseason experience of veteran leadership would compliment Aaron Judge's presence in the clubhouse, providing another established voice in a locker room seeking its first world series since 2009. At 27 million and 26 and 15 million and 27, Arnado's contract is manageable for a Yankees franchise with substantial payroll flexibility. All right. Why is this good news for the Cardinals for St. Louis? He says this package delivers exactly what Heinbloom has prioritized young pitching with significant upside. Carlos O'Grange, a 6'7 right-hanner emerged as one of the Yankees breakout pitching prospects in 25, showcasing a 65-grade fastball that touches the upper 90s, along with multiple quality breaking pitches. At just 21 years old, Lagrange projects as a mid-rotation starter who could contribute to the

Starting point is 00:10:58 Cardinals rotation as soon as 2026. Brendan Beck adds another arm with major league experience and upside the 2021 second round pick posted impressive numbers to double A and triple A and 25 earning his way back onto the Yankees top prospects list. Beck's polished three pitch mix gives him a realistic floor as a back-in started with potential for more. All of that sounds great, right? And then he moves on to Ben Rice, represents the wild card in this package, he says.

Starting point is 00:11:25 26 years old hit 248, 26 home runs, 8,000. 36 OPS in his first full MLB season. While he's blocked in New York behind established stars, Rice provides St. Louis with a cost-control power bat who can play both first base and catcher as the Cardinals transition away from aging veterans. Rice offers immediate offensive production and positions where the team needs debt.

Starting point is 00:11:46 The $10 million in cash consideration will sweeten the deal for St. Louis, effectively allowing them to acquire three controllable assets while reducing their financial commitment to just $32 million over two years. This aligns perfectly with the Cardinals' stated goal of cutting payroll while stockpiling young talent for their rebelled. All right. My next question was, is this guy a fan of the Yankees or the Cardinals? Because this sounds like a dream scenario for St. Louis, right?

Starting point is 00:12:18 All right, you know, first off, let's talk about the money. Again, he doesn't bring up Ryan McMahon in this write-out, which is a little odd to me. maybe he just forgot about Ryan McMahon. And then maybe he also forgot because he doesn't talk about how the Rockies are also paying $10 million for the Nolan Aronado deal. So his figures there, the numbers are a little bit off, I think. But obviously the Akees can afford Nolan Aronado. That's not an issue here.

Starting point is 00:12:51 The pieces, honestly, you can take Ben Rice and the second pitcher out of the equation. and I think the Cardinals would jump at the deal. If you offered the Cardinals, your number two prospect, who happens to be a starting pitcher, who happens to be somebody not that far off from the major leagues, you'd probably take that. You're telling me that you'd land the Yankees top pitching prospect and get cash for Aronado.

Starting point is 00:13:19 And this is me just shoveling aside the Ben Rice and, you know, the back side of this. I'd assume Heinbloom would do a backflip and take that. But on top of those two things, the money and the first prospect, Lagrange, but to add the number 11 guy and Ben Rice, like this dude really wants Nolan Arnado in pitstripes. I mean, my goodness, I just, I cannot, that can't be realistic, right? I think a more realistic trade if Nolan Arnado was going to the Yankees.

Starting point is 00:13:54 Again, we'd have to figure out what the hell they're doing with Ryan McMahon. I text Ben or not Ben, Brian from Locked on Yankees. I text Brian and asked him, I was like, you guys are still planning on bringing him back, right? Like McMahon's your third baseman, right? And he's like, I haven't heard anything different, but nothing is off the table. So maybe they're thinking about flipping McMahon to somebody else. Maybe, you know, because first base? maybe. I don't know. He had better defensive numbers at third base than are in Otto.

Starting point is 00:14:28 So not sure why you would do that, but okay. All right. I'm very confused by this write-up. It's linked in the description if you guys want to read it for yourself. So you know that I'm not making this up. This isn't something that I just put together. It's not. I mean, they can't all be winners, right? All of the trades that we get. But I don't know. I'm just, I'm very much blown away by something like that. I feel. like if you were to get those four guys, like there would have to be more in return than just Nolan Arnado would be my thinking. And the Cardinals like, you know, when it comes to catchers, like with the Ben Rice part of it, when it comes to catchers, we know that there's a lot of them

Starting point is 00:15:13 in the clubhouse already, right? We still think Yvonne Herrera is going to try his hand to catching again after having elbow surgery. But, you know, I'm not entirely sold on that. But the Cardinals are going to give me another chance. Why not? See what he can do. So you've got other pieces there. Over at first base, you still got Wilson Contrary.

Starting point is 00:15:33 She's still got Alec Berluson, who, you know, is going to win a Silver Slugger Award probably this year. So not really hurting on depth at first base at the moment. Perhaps he envisions the Cardinals making other moves where, you know, know, Wilson Contreras gets moved or or Burleson gets moved. That's, you know, something that we've talked about because Ben Rice, a left-handed bat, so you don't need two of those guys over there at first base. I don't know.

Starting point is 00:16:02 It's a very strange trade proposal that I feel like is way, way too lopsided on the cardinal side of things. Like I said, a more realistic one would be the number 11 prospect. Brendan Beck and then some, some low-level guys. I'm assuming Ben Rice will be the first basement next year for the, if you had to stop, if this didn't happen, Ben Rice would be at first, right? And McMahon's at third for the Yankees already.

Starting point is 00:16:35 I don't know how much better Nolan Aranao makes you other than giving you a right-handed back. I don't know. Like I said, I'm a little confused about this one. But again, not all these trade proposals that, you know, I'm going to find on the interwebs is going to be, you know, winners. Like they're not all going to be home runs. But they keep coming, you know, people, blog writers and stuff,

Starting point is 00:17:00 they keep coming up with content. And I want to share that stuff with you. That's my job. Over here at Lockdown Cardinals is I do all the work for you. I go find this stuff and then bring it to you. And then we discuss it together. So leave your comments and your thoughts in the comments section below or on X. It's Friday.

Starting point is 00:17:17 the blues just got hammered again on Thursday night. I don't know what's going on with them. So that had everybody bummed out. So I thought maybe you'd enjoy this trade proposal a little more. It would help brighten up your day on a Friday just a little bit. So hopefully we got that accomplished at least. All right. Coming up next, Cardo Confessions, Trading Away Burley or Donnie.

Starting point is 00:17:36 What did people have to say about that? Our Silver Slugger brothers, who are finalists for the utility Silver Slugger this year. So we'll discuss that. We'll talk a little World Series as well coming up next. unlocked on cardals. The NFL season is here, and Fandle has an offer you don't want to miss right now. New customers can bet just $5 and get $300 in bonus bets if you win. That's right. You pick a bet. You put down five bucks. And if it hits, you're going to unlock $300 in bonus bets to use across the app. I love how Fandul gives me so many different ways to play. You're going to like that too.

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Starting point is 00:19:11 and check out Locked on MLB Game Night. It's every game every night until the World Series champion is crowned. You'll get local analysis. But on a national scale, and you can find MLB Game Night on the Locked on NLB YouTube channel or wherever you listen to your podcasts. had a little, like I said, we had an episode of that recently where all of the hosts from from locked on MLB Game Night got together and discussed the World Series.

Starting point is 00:19:34 So I'll tell you about that in a second. But first, let's get to Cardinal Confessions. This is where I go through your comments and the things that you've written into me. And we discuss what you had to say. I had some people were a little worked up at me in this one. But Alec Berlinson and Brennan Donovan were both named finalists for that NL Utility Silver Slugger Award this week. but both have also been mentioned as possible trade chips for Heim Bloom. And when asked which one you would deal away, I got some interesting responses.

Starting point is 00:20:03 Some of them were pretty casual. A couple of them were angry at me. I was like, oh, okay. First one here, Burleson probably has more room to go before he reaches his ceiling, while Donovan is probably near the peak of his value. I'd hate to lose Donovan, but I'd sooner trade him than Burleson right now. Makes perfect sense. You're going to have to pay Donovan soon.

Starting point is 00:20:24 He's going to get a big raise and get a real contract finally. It feels like he's deserved one already, if we're being honest. Burley, though, you still got him under control and very, very cheap for the foreseeable future. So that would be the one you'd want to get rid of. And Donovan probably is worth more at this time. You know, he was the all-star. People are more familiar with his work than Alec Berluson. So I feel like that would work in the favor of the Cardinals as far as getting a return.

Starting point is 00:20:53 you know, Burley has done it for one year so far. I mean, he's had two good years, if we're being honest. But last year was like, you know, a breakout year, if you will, for Burley. So Donovan's got more of a track record of being good for four years. So I don't know, that's just my thought. Burleson feels like a player we should try to keep. League is really starting to lean towards guys who don't strike out and put the ball and play more often than not.

Starting point is 00:21:19 Plus, we need an everyday first baseman if Contreras gets traded. But I wouldn't be upset if we're. we traded Burley and got a pitching prospect or two in return. And that's part of it too. Like who's worth more to other teams? Will somebody pay more for Donnie or Burley? And if so, what are those returns looking like? Yeah, Contreras being at first, it blocks Burley from where his everyday position should be,

Starting point is 00:21:45 in my opinion. He can play outfield, not taking that away from him, but putting him over at first would make a whole lot of sense. It would just be if you could do it right now and that was his job, that would be great. But you know, you got Willie there. And there's still a chance that Willie gets traded, but it's not great. He doesn't really want to get out of here. He kind of wants to be around for this whole thing.

Starting point is 00:22:06 And they seem to be okay with that. Not trading either one of them, build around both, move on from people like New Park, Gorman, and Walker. That's another thing. You know, and we talk about these trade scenarios and stuff that, there's not a lot of guys here that aren't on the table that aren't available. You know, the Cardinals are going to listen in on a lot of these dudes. There's reasons why you'd want to get rid of them and there's reasons why you'd want to keep them.

Starting point is 00:22:35 Gorman and Walker, their age, you know, they were top picks. And, you know, Gorman has shown you that he's got 30 to 40 home run power. Walker gave you that rookie season where we thought he was going to be this breakout superstar. and it hasn't happened yet. It's regressed badly. But Gorman's 25, Walker's 23. Newpar's 28. You know, have we seen the best of Newpar already

Starting point is 00:23:04 and is the time to move on? It's why I can move on from Newt a little easier than Gorman and Walker. But I can see why fans are like, get them all out of here and give somebody else a chance. I understand the frustration. It's just hard for me to give up on Gordon and Walker just yet. Specifically Walker, just because he's 23. Two years ago, he was a top 10

Starting point is 00:23:30 prospect in baseball. Top five, I think, wasn't he? Excuse me, I'm losing my voice here, getting all raspy. Another one here. I don't want to trade either one. Wonder what kind of trade values we could see for a three-player deal that included Nato Gray and Newpar. That's a lot of money. To get Nato and Gray off. the books. That's a lot of money because Sunny's worth like 40. And then you've got Nato's two years. So that's kind of an investment.

Starting point is 00:24:00 Depends on how much the Cardos would have to eat, I guess. I don't know. I don't know. It's something Heim can toy with, though. Like if there's a team that's interested in all of them, maybe just some like mega deal would happen. I just feel like I don't see a lot of those anymore. Here's one of the angry ones.

Starting point is 00:24:20 You spent the last two years hating on Burley. Now you're acting like his greatest fan. Shaking my head, exclamation point. Here's the deal. Live watch his kid in high school at ECU and blow through your lower minor league system in record time. And all we heard was Walker, Newport, Gorman. Here's what you do.

Starting point is 00:24:40 You sell contraris and Arnado. You keep Burley at first. He plays the game the way the birds used to play to the game. Works hard, committed, and doesn't complain. you really owe him an apology. Okay. I'm not sure how I hated on Alec Berlinson for two years. I admit, I get upset.

Starting point is 00:25:00 If there was one thing that drives me nuts about Alec Burleson, it's when he swings at the first pitch all the time. And I'm not alone in that because people tweet me and text and tell me the same stuff all the time. I'm the same way. It drives me nuts. But that's just a difference in opinion on approach. You know, sometimes Burley feels like the best.

Starting point is 00:25:19 pitch he's going to get is going to be the first pitch he sees. He's doing more scouting than I am. If that's the way it is, that's the way it is. I've just been more of a patient guy that wants to work the count a little bit more. The defensive inefficiencies are a real thing. You can't deny that in 2024. He was bad against lefties too. And this year, he went out and proved that he could hit them for the first time since

Starting point is 00:25:47 he's been in the major leagues, which made his. defensive stuff, kind of a moot point because you had to put Alec Berlinson's bat in the slyde, an offense that needed more weapons and more production. And he was one of the guys that was giving it to you on a regular basis. So credit to Alec Berlinson for improving and likely winning a Silver Slugger Award this year. You know, I love that. I don't know where the hate part comes from in this one. You know, I want to see all these guys do well. There's not one person that I wish ill upon. Even though I give more crap,

Starting point is 00:26:22 if there's a guy that people would say I hate on, it would be Miles Michaelis. That's the guy I feel like I end up talking negative about more often than not. So if I came off that way, I guess I'll just have to do a better job at conveying how I'm feeling. But I want the best players

Starting point is 00:26:37 that the Cardinals have on their roster playing each day. Now, this past year, they didn't do that. Remember, they wanted to give more guys' opportunities, a longer leash. They called it runway. They, despite the struggles, they were like, nah, you were leaving these suckers in there. And Burley was one of the few guys who took advantage of the runway he was given and did it in a major way.

Starting point is 00:27:03 So am I not supposed to be excited about seeing somebody flourish and be really good, better than they were before? That doesn't really make a lot of sense to me. But he's definitely one of your best bats on the team right now. Like you can't deny that. I'm not denying that. Was he last year? Yes, against right handers, not against lefties. He hit like 195.

Starting point is 00:27:27 But he took advantage of the time he got this year, made the most of it. And now look at him. He's going to be a Silver Slugger Award winner. At least he should be. I'd be a crime if he's not. Other guys who did more with their time this year, Yvonne Herrera, when he was healthy, obviously became a staple in the middle of this order.

Starting point is 00:27:44 Matthew Libertor, becoming a starter. Michael McGreevy, when he found. finally was allowed to become starter, an everyday guy. Matt Fonson, Riley O'Brien, Kyle Leahy in the bullpen, Kyle Leahy might take what he did in relief last year, which was pretty good, and move it as a member, become a member of the starting rotation. So he did a lot.

Starting point is 00:28:04 To an extent, I think Victor Scott did some really good things this year. He's a gold glove finalist, one of the best stolen base guys in the league. You know, if we can get his bat up the speed and make him a better threat about being on base more, hitting for a better average, taking more walks. I mean, what a what a player that would be, right? So I'm excited about all these guys. And Burley is certainly one of those that will be in there every day next year, whether it's in the outfield, whether it's at first, whether he's a DH.

Starting point is 00:28:35 He's certainly earned it. So there you go. Why wouldn't I be excited about that? World Series begins tonight in Toronto. Game one. Blake Snell for the Dodgers against rookie Trey Savage for the Blue Jay's. We did that MLB Game Night host show yesterday about the series. So check that out if you haven't already. My thoughts on it real quick were that Toronto needs to dictate this game. Stay patient at the plate, work the counts, get the starters pitch counts up.

Starting point is 00:29:04 Try to get to the bullpen. Make David Roberts, or Dave, I don't know why I call him David. Dave Roberts, make him make decisions about his bullpen. Brewers didn't make him hardly do anything. He basically just sat back and was like, look how freaking good we are. Toronto is a better offense than Milwaukee. More star power, Vladdy Jr., Springer, Boba Chatt is back. Alejandro Kirk doesn't get talked about enough of what he can do for that offense.

Starting point is 00:29:32 Bottom of the order needs to wear out the starters for the Dodgers so that those big bats can do damage, and that's how they win. Will the Blue Jays have enough left-handed pitching to combat Otani, Freeman, Max Muncie. It's a very right-handed pitching heavy team. All three of those guys actually haven't done all that much until Otani went off in game four, and they're still nine and one in the playoffs.

Starting point is 00:29:58 That just shows you how good their starting rotation has been, and the offense has come through even though those guys haven't been as dominant. Again, Otani had the one game, but other than that, he hasn't done that much, like Otani-esque type of stuff. So the one game really skews the numbers a bit, but obviously he's show Hay O'Tonnie's the best of the biz. So I'm not going to take the usual suspects for MVP's. We didn't talk about this on the roundtable,

Starting point is 00:30:27 but it's not fun. So I'm not going to take Otani or anybody like it. But for the Dodgers, give me Max Muncie. If the Blue Jays win, give me Dalton Bar Show. Center fielder. I've always liked it. Leave your comments and your thoughts down below. Thanks for making a lot time cardinals your first listen every day.

Starting point is 00:30:45 haven't already. Give us follow on X at L0 underscore Cardinals at JD Sports Radio, TikTok, and Instagram and Lockdown Cardinals. Like, subscribe on YouTube. Help our channel and love for the Cardinals grow. We're getting really close, guys, to the 13,000 subscribers. Would love to get there soon. Could use your help if you don't like and subscribe already. Please do so to help our channel grow. You're the best fans in baseball for a reason. We'll see you next time on Lockdown Cardinals.

Locked On Cardinals - Daily Podcast On The St. Louis Cardinals - Nolan Arenado's Future HANGS in Balance as the St. Louis Cardinals Contemplate UNLOADING him

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