Locked On Cardinals - Daily Podcast On The St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louis Cardinals SILENCE Doubters With Impressive Run | Are They For Real?

Starting point is 00:00:00 Can the St. Louis Cardinals continue this tour and pace that they've been on over the last month, or will they eventually fade away? We'll discuss it today on Locked on Cardinals. You are Locked on Cardinals, your daily St. Louis Cardinals podcast, part of the Locked on Podcast Network, your team every day. Hey there, Cardinals, I'm J.D. Hafford and I'm your host for Lockedon Cardinals, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network covering your team every day. You can follow me on X at Jaddy Sports radio as well as the podcast on X at LO underscore Cardinals. We're on YouTube as well. Make sure you like, subscribe, and comment, hit that notification button so you know when

Starting point is 00:00:41 the new stuff is dropped. Also available on TikTok, Instagram, the Locked on Cardinals. It's a show serving Cardinal Nation and giving the best fans in baseball, all of the info about the birds on the bat. So the Cardinals entered their series against the Rangers this weekend with a 32 and 24 record, which is no small feat considering they were 11 and 16 in the month of April. Now, when May began, they were 14 and 17 overall, despite a more spirited brand of baseball, one that most of us were still enjoying.

Starting point is 00:01:11 Things just weren't clicking. They weren't clicking on a consistent basis quite yet. So 14 and 17, underwhelming, but at the same time, it was kind of what people expected, right? When this whole thing started, not a lot of people were expecting much out of the Cardinals. and there were two series that stand out in that month of April that really did some damage. You had the ones in Boston and in New York against the Mets. They lost 13 to 9, had that blow up from Helsley and lost 5 to 4, and then the 18 to 7 game against the Red Sox,

Starting point is 00:01:46 where they just got embarrassed on Sunday night baseball. Safe to say, fan base morale was down a little bit after that. Then they followed it up with losing two out of three in Pittsburgh. then after a nice homestand against the Phillies and the Astros, they went four and two. They lose four straight at City Field against the Mets. And then they lose two out of three in Atlanta. And that puts them that 10 and 15 on the year. Again, fan-based morale a little bit low following that stuff.

Starting point is 00:02:16 It was kind of the same old Cardinals. They're just not good enough. They overestimated their prospects. This isn't going to work. But since then, 22 and 9. And it played like one of the best teams in baseball. And it hasn't been against just like cream puff teams.

Starting point is 00:02:35 You know, they aren't just taking advantage of some of the easy parts of their schedule. They took two out of three against the Brewers, who I still think is a team to watch. Don't overlook them just yet. They just baffled the Boston Red Sox recently. A couple of walkoffs in that one. Two out of three against the Met. two out of three against the Phillies, the Royals. They do lose two of three against the Detroit Tigers,

Starting point is 00:03:02 but they play very, very well in two of those games. That second one, certainly a very winnable game, didn't go their way. Sweep the Diamondbacks, who I still think is a very good team in Arizona, although they're they're sliding a little bit right now. They're in a tough spot, but the cardals are a reason for that. The card will sweep them and they're like, oh, gosh. But folks are still skeptical. on whether or not this is real or just a hot month for St. Louis.

Starting point is 00:03:32 That's fair to question. You should. Again, nobody expected the Cardinals to be all that good coming into the season. A lot of people thought they were going to be really, really bad. Will Leach at MLB.com put out a story giving his three reasons why you should believe in what you're seeing from the Cardinals so far, whether it's real, and then three reasons why it may not be. And I thought we could go through those today

Starting point is 00:04:00 just to get an outside perspective from a national rider on what they're seeing from the St. Louis Cardinals. You've heard my thoughts day and a day out of what I think about this team. What are other people saying about them? So let's start with the why they're doing well, why they are real and why you should trust what you're seeing from the Cardinals. Number one, their defense.

Starting point is 00:04:24 And again, you can read full article MLB.com, but it's their defense. Will starts with, he says this was the beginning of it, was the choice of making Victor Scott the second, the everyday center fielder from day one, says the move has turned out to be a master stroke. Scott instantly has become one of the best center fielder in baseball. Newt Bar has held up fine in the less challenging left field. And stunningly, Jordan Walker,

Starting point is 00:04:48 whose outfield defense was troublesome in 2024, has transformed himself into a fantastic right fielder. He moves on to the end field, saying Mason Wend, might be the best of fits of shortstop in baseball. Aronado has been a resurgent at third base. He's back to being a goal glove candidate over there, something he said might be his primary late career goal. Brendan Donovan, team MVP for us, as we know,

Starting point is 00:05:13 talked a lot about him in the last episode, but he's been excellent at second base and left field when he plays out there. and even Wilson Contreras has been much better than expected in its first year at first base. They've even improved a catcher by mostly moving Yvonne Herrera to designated hitter and having Pedro Pajas and Joel Pozo split time behind the plate. The card will still lead in outs above average. They're a plus 22 right now. They've dipped a little bit recently a couple of bad games where they've had a few errors here and there.

Starting point is 00:05:46 So that's dropped a little bit. but the Astros are in second place at plus 18. So still pretty decent lead there. Will believes in the defense and says as long as they are healthy, they should remain the top defense in baseball. And as a Cardinal fan, you love to hear that, right? Because since I've been on this earth and have been able to follow the game of baseball, this organization prides itself in good,

Starting point is 00:06:18 fundamental baseball. That's what it was always all about. And it always started with the defense. Specifically, being strong up the middle. That is something that they always aspire to be. And catcher shortstop, second base center field, after a couple of years where things were kind of in flux a little bit, you have that again with the catching position. It's not Yadi like, but we need to get over all of that and realize that it will probably never look like that ever again. Yadier Molina was a one in a trillion catcher. It's not going to be like that all the time. We can always sit there and go,

Starting point is 00:07:01 Yaddi would have thrown him out. Yaddy would have done this. But what good does I do? He's not coming back, all right? At least not as a player. So finding the next Yadda or Molina, that shouldn't be a goal because that's almost impossible to find. It's a rare thing for you to come.

Starting point is 00:07:17 then day in and day out and be that good at everything that has to do with the position of catching. So we got to get over that. But you got to admit the Pahez and Pozo back there have done a pretty darn good job. The pitching staff loves these guys. And Yvonne Herrera, he's still getting sprinkled in there at catcher. But obviously the other two are, there's just better defensive catchers. There's nothing wrong with that. Yvon Herrera is just a much better offensive guy to both of them, too.

Starting point is 00:07:44 But then you got Mason winning shortstop. You got Donnie at second base. So the middle of your infield, fantastic, Renato over at third base doing what he does. And then Victor Scott in center field. You know, Michael Ciani was great out there, but no offense whatsoever. Victor Scott this year, strong defensively, strong offensively, right back to that formula that made the Cardinals very, very successful for many years.

Starting point is 00:08:08 So all of that is quite good. We're going to get to the offensive side of things here next, which is, you know, two of the reasons why the car, Cardinals are maintaining or could maintain, I should say, they're good play moving forward. We'll get into that next coming up on Locked on Cardinals. Looking for a snack that's both delicious and nutritious, then crack into a good source of protein with wonderful pistachios.

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Starting point is 00:09:52 on X anytime you want that feedback is always welcome and encourage a lot of great feedback coming from yesterday's episode about Brendan Donovan and whether or not he is the best second baseman in baseball right now. A lot of good discussion going on in the comments section there. We're going to talk about some of those comments of the fan feedback coming up in an upcoming episode, but a lot to get to in this one still. So we're working on two more of the reasons why you should trust the St. Louis Cardinals and what they've done so far. And it's no secret that the Cardinals were willing to sacrifice wins this year to allow them to figure out what the future holds for Jordan Walker and Nolan Gorman,

Starting point is 00:10:33 two first round picks that they want to be the centerpiece of this offense. They're really hoping that they'll become those guys. But when they're not playing every day or they're not even up in the major leagues, it's hard to figure out whether or not that is something that is attainable. And this was the year that they said that they're going to let these guys play and see what they got. And that brings us to Will's second reason that the Cardinals' resurgence is real. He points out that the offense has stayed very good, despite both of those guys, not hitting all that well early on. Talking about Walker and Gorman.

Starting point is 00:11:04 Will says this. They will have a full year to figure it out, but so far neither of them really has. Gorman is hitting 191 with just one home run. Walker is hitting 2.15 with an alarming strikeout rate. And yet the offense, even with these two struggling, is still thriving. their seventh and run scored, seventh at OPS, and second in batting average. He does point out the seasons that Bernard and Ivan Herrera are having. Those guys have been monsters.

Starting point is 00:11:29 Also highlights the improvements from Victor Scott, Mason Wynn, having a healthy Lars Newpar. Goes on to say this, though, about Jordan Walker and Gorman. He says, even the better news, Walker and Gorman are slowly starting to come along. Walker had a huge hit to win a game against the Royals, and both of them tripled in succession on Tuesday against the Orioles. If the Cardals can get those two going, look out. Now, the one thing that I will point to here, that he brings up quickly talking about Nupar,

Starting point is 00:12:03 he brings up the health factor. And losing Yvonne Herrera was awful for an entire month and you saw the effect that that had on them in April. Go look at their record, you know. They didn't win as much. but other than that big injury, we've only had like very brief IL stents by Mason Wynn and Nolan Gorman. Willie had the back spasms recently,

Starting point is 00:12:27 but overall they've stayed extremely healthy, which certainly has helped them become a more consistent offensive team. When you got the same guys in and out of the lineup, and instead of just plugging dudes in guys that are supposed to be backups and having to make them start all the time, you've seen Burley come around, which is cut into Nolan Gorman's, it bats because Burley has been so good against right-handed pitching. You know, they've got a nice mix going here.

Starting point is 00:12:57 And if there happens to be an injury, I don't think there's a certain guy on the roster, like if you lose him, that this team will just fall apart now. The Yvonne Herrera injury was something they had to figure out, but Joel Pozo came in and kind of settled things down. So you don't want injury. and it's usually the healthier teams throughout the season are the ones that have the better records eventually. So staying healthy obviously is going to be a key. Last reason for believing in the Redbirds is their under the hood numbers are all good.

Starting point is 00:13:30 And what he points out is that the Cardinals have a plus 45 run differential. That's essentially the same as the Phillies and better than the Mariners. And the deeper you dig into the numbers, the better their record looks. Clay Davenport's adjusted standings, which takes into account schedules, equivalent runs scored and allowed and all sorts of factors that don't show up in the traditional standings are even more optimistic. He continues adding that according to third order winning percentage, the Cardinals are the third best team in the National League behind only the Mets and the Cubs and thus ahead all of those teams that they'll be battling for the wild card spots. And at the end of this is the bold statement that you're going to love. He says, this is not a fluke. If anything, the Cardinal's record should be even better than it is right now.

Starting point is 00:14:24 So that's got to make you feel pretty good about what you've seen so far on the field and make you feel a little more confident that a national rider is seeing all of this from the Cardinals from his perspective, not from us here on this side of, you know, with the St. Louis Cardinal lens glasses. on and wearing the colors and stuff, you know, this is a guy who's looking at it as no, you know, no, what's the word I'm more looking for here? He just, he don't care if they went or lose. He's just there to see, is this team good or not? He sees that they're good.

Starting point is 00:14:56 Now, he does come up with reasons why he thinks that, you know, you can be skeptical about this, which will get to. But I went in and checked other teams run differential. And the Cardinals plus 45 that he mentions in there is better than a couple of teams that of them in the overall standings, the Phillies, who are one win behind the Tigers for the most wins of baseball. Cardinals have taken four of six from the Phillies. And then he's got the Padres, who are just percentage points ahead of them, but have one less win than the Cardinals do. So they're playing like one of the best teams in baseball. The Cardinals are also 16 and 12 against teams over 500. This is important

Starting point is 00:15:36 because that's better than the Dodgers. The Dodgers are 10 to 9 against 500. better. The Phillies are 13 and 12. And perhaps most importantly, the Cubs who are 12 and 13, they have a losing record against teams over 500, but they kick the snod out of the teams that they're supposed to be 23 and 8 against teams below 500. While the Cardinals are just 16 and 12 below 500 teams. So they lost series to the Angels to the Red Sox who were spiraling right now, the Braves, the Pirates. So you got to beat the teams. Any like the Braves of the Red Sox, I feel like are teams that I'm not going to get all that upset about. You know, you hate getting swept by a team like Boston. But Atlanta was playing really, really well at that moment when the Cardinals

Starting point is 00:16:21 played them. So I'm not going to stress about those. But, you know, losing a series to the pirates, that's, you can't let that happen. The angels were playing very well at the beginning of the year. They've slid off a little bit. Although they won, I don't know how many, one of the six something in a row recently. So it's not like they're, they're, you know, just a pile of garbage. But like when you go up against other teams later on down the road that you're supposed to be, like, you know, the Orioles.

Starting point is 00:16:48 The Orioles have not played well. Took two or three from them, you know, this weekend against the Rangers. They have not played all that well. You want to get at least two out of three against the Rangers as well. So a lot of good things to why the Cardinals are where they are right now, which has got to make you feel pretty darn positive. but he does give a couple reasons to be skeptical. So we'll get three to be exact.

Starting point is 00:17:12 So we'll give you the reasons why they might fade out coming up next on on lockdown cardinals. Thank you again for making Lockedown Cardinals your first listen today for your second list and check out the all new Lockdown MLB Game Night. Every game every night all season long and local analysis. On a national scale, you can find MLB game night on Lockedon MLB on YouTube or wherever you listen to your podcast. Again, we're going through Will Leach's story at MLB.com.

Starting point is 00:17:44 It's up there. You guys want to check it out for yourself. It gives three reasons to be skeptical. And the number one reason shouldn't come as much of a surprise to any of you. The exact words that Will uses here is the pitching still feels a little held together by spit and bailing wire. I don't know what bailing wire is. I know what spit is.

Starting point is 00:18:05 And it seems like that means that it's kind of flimsy. And it's hard to argue with this one because we've all been surprised at how good this starting rotation has been. And he points out the same things that I've been telling you here at Lockedong Cardinals throughout the year. You know, not a lot of strikeout stuff outside of Libby and Sunny Gray. Fetty, Michaelis Palante normally do not strike out a lot of dudes. Palante had seven the other night. We've seen Fetty have as many, I think, is eight. They have eight in the one game. Maybe more. But it's not a normal occurrence. Normally it's like three, four. something like that.

Starting point is 00:18:47 And the other thing is whether or not the Michaelis, the Michaelis we've seen through most of May, I know his story against Baltimore wasn't great, bad conditions, and he's just having trouble getting the ball down. It's not like his stuff looked horrible. But is what the other games that we've seen between that Boston game and this last one against Baltimore is that sustainable for Miles Michaelis. That's obviously that's a question.

Starting point is 00:19:14 You know, as soon as Michael has started giving up hits in that game, my feed was blowing up with people like, see, he sucks. He's still not good. Blah, da, da, everybody is just waiting to pile on Miles Michaelis. And I get it because he's had a tough couple of seasons. But at the same time, he's pitched so well recently where in that game, I was like, yeah, he's just up in the zone. If he could get that stuff down, he wouldn't be getting hit around as much as he was. It was at nine hits and four innings.

Starting point is 00:19:44 So that was very old school, Michaelis, although they didn't have a lot of home runs against him. Usually when he's like that, it's three or four bombs are getting knocked off of them. And it didn't quite get so out of hand like it did in Boston, where the Cardinals were out of the game. Cardinals ended up coming back and winning that game, which was great because the bullpen was so good.

Starting point is 00:20:03 His second reason, lack of power. Now, you know my feelings here if you're in every day. I don't think you have to have a bunch of sluggers to win. But Will points out that the Cardle's home run leader is Lars Newpark, who is their leadoff man with eight? There's no question that the Cardinals are a contact team rather than a power hitting team. That's not hurting them too much just yet because of how well they hit with runners in scoring position. Their third in the majors at 272, but that's the sort of number that can fluctuate.

Starting point is 00:20:32 Another thing I want to add to this is that the Cardals also lead the major leagues in batting average on balls and play at 312, which if you go back the last couple of seats, reasons. 312 is right about who or where the league leader is at the end of the year. Is that something that will do eventually? I don't know. I don't know. But I'd rather than put the ball in play and find out rather than swing for the fences in strikeout a bunch. That is where I start getting very, very frustrated. You're putting the ball and play and you're putting the pressure on the defense and making them make plays. great great but when you're just swinging a miss and or you're just watching balls go by that's not going to do us any good so i'm glad their approach this year at the plate has not been so much like dude we got to hit for more power no you don't really let the power just kind

Starting point is 00:21:28 of happen just let it happen i will take the doubles all day long uh last reason that will brings up says that they are highly unlikely to make any helpful moves as the trade deadline approaches. And this is something that people have begun to ask John Moselock about, that what might he be thinking when we get closer to the deadline, which is at the end of July. So we're still two months away. But people are already starting to think about where and who's going to be available when that time rolls around, which they should. You know, and would Moe, if the Cardinals are still in contention like they are right now, would he make a move? You know, what could he add?

Starting point is 00:22:12 Will brings up that the markets for Aronado, Thetian Helsley, guys that many thought could be available, that they may not be now because of the way things are going for the Cardinals. Aronado doesn't appear like he's going to go anywhere. The offensive numbers are just not there. Nobody's going to want to pick up that contract. Cardinals aren't going to go pay him to play somewhere else. And it looks like he's having fun this year.

Starting point is 00:22:35 I've enjoyed the way Nolan Aronato has played, specifically defensively. I know offensively it can be frustrating from time to time, but he has come up with quite a few big hits so far this year. But instead of him being the cog of the offense, he's become a piece of the offense. And that's okay. He's transitioned into a pretty good number six hitter. He's not going to be great. He's not going to be Nolan Aronado from three years ago anymore. That time has passed. It just is. But to accept him for what is now and the defense he's giving you over there at third base and just as a guy in the clubhouse. Why trade are not? You don't need to anymore. Eric Fetty. Here's my thing with Eric Fetty moving

Starting point is 00:23:23 forward. Eric Fetty, don't you feel like Michael McGreevy could slide in and do what Eric Fuddy does? So if somebody comes at you with a crazy offer for Fetty or even Halsley, Halsley, is a he gets the saves, but man, nerve-wracking from time to time. If somebody comes at you with a big offer, don't you feel like they might pull the trigger on a trade for Fetty or Helsley and get something really, really good back? I don't feel like if you took those two away from this team, that all of a sudden they're not in contention anymore.

Starting point is 00:24:01 Do you? Do you? So I wouldn't expect these splash moves, but more like the moods we've seen recently, If they do keep everybody intact, you know, veteran guys whose contracts are up and could fill a need. Healthy lineup, there's not a lot of spots for any new hitters to be in here. If the rotation falters, Michael McGreevy and Quinn Matthews, hopefully we'll be ready to rock. He's looked really good in his rehab start so far. So those are some guys you could bring up.

Starting point is 00:24:30 There's other arms that you could possibly think about as well. It's Coorobi. They look really good. But those choices might be just as good. as any old guy on an expiring contract. You know, I'd do something just to do it, you know, stay with the formula you've been using, continue to use the guys in your organization.

Starting point is 00:24:49 Bolpin help, obviously that's something for sure. Always a need for teams. But Will's final words are, the Cardinals are surprising and fun and sometimes joyous to watch. Can it last? I, for one, will keep watching every night to find out. As will I, as will the rest of Cardinal Nation. And in the words of the great Eddie Johnson from Christmas,

Starting point is 00:25:10 vacation. I don't know about the cat, but I sure am enjoying it. And that's how I feel about Cardinal Baseball right now. The ride will continue in Texas tonight against an underachieving Rangers team, much like the Orioles, very, very underachieving, much more was expected from them. And it just has not clicked. They just won the World Series a couple years ago. And offensively, it's like, we don't know what's wrong with them. I think Brett Boone's their new hitting guy now. and it's just it's bizarre because the Rangers, when you look at the lineup, you're like, wow, they're like sluggers all over the place,

Starting point is 00:25:45 but it has not clicked so far this year. Tonight it's Matthew Libert Soar against Jack Collider. He's the former number two overall pick in the 2021 draft, 3 and 2, 4.17 ERA. The numbers have been solid in his last three outings, but those starts were, two of those starts were also against the Rockies and the White Sox, who are the two worst teams record-wise in the league. Walks have been a real issue for lighter.

Starting point is 00:26:07 So my advice to the Cardinals, be patient. Don't go chasing. Like TLC says, don't go chasing waterfalls. Just don't. Like make him come to you, pick a spot and attack. But don't help him. The offense has had issues all year for the Rangers. They did get Corey Seeger back.

Starting point is 00:26:29 He's been on the IL three times already. Marcus Simeon has been a shell of his former self. under 200 this year. Farmer Cardinal Adoles, Garcia, is hitting just 208. Still has got power, seven home runs, but 57 strikeouts. So he doesn't, he hasn't been all that good this year. The team is hitting a combined 220, which is only better than the Rockies. Like, that's crazy.

Starting point is 00:26:52 And they don't walk much. Their lowest walk total in baseball. So they're up there hacking. They're swinging. You just got to keep the ball in the ballpark against them. And you have a very good chance of winning. So that's the key for me in this series. Saturday, Sunday gray against Patrick Corbyn. Yes, that Patrick Corbyn, who was rotting away with the Nationals for so long,

Starting point is 00:27:12 has been surprisingly good with Texas so far. Then on Sunday you got Eric Fetty against Jacob de Grom, and you know how nasty he can be, although this last start for de Grom, first time in all of his starts that he's ever made in Major League Baseball, they didn't record a strikeout. Very, very strange. He is coming back from missing last. year with the injury, but it has looked pretty darn good so far this year. So you want to jump on these guys in games one and two. You don't want to split those and then rely on beating the

Starting point is 00:27:43 Grom in game three to win the series. So I mean, it's a two-type of Scy Young Award winner for a reason. The dude can be really, really, really, really, really nasty sometimes. So I'd rather take my chances with Patrick Corbyn and Jack Lyder. Oh, how about you? Thank you for making Locktown. Carlos your first listen every day if you haven't already. Give us a follow on X at L0 underscore Cardinals and at Jaddy Sports Radio, TikTok, Instagram, and Lockdown Cardinals, like, subscribe on YouTube, and help our channel and our love for the Cardinals grow. You guys are the best fans in baseball for a reason,

Starting point is 00:28:13 and we will see you next time on Lockdown Cardinals.

Locked On Cardinals - Daily Podcast On The St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louis Cardinals SILENCE Doubters With Impressive Run | Are They For Real?

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