Locked On Cardinals - Daily Podcast On The St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louis Cardinals Trade Willson Contreras

Starting point is 00:00:00 The St. Louis Cardinals officially announced the trade of a Wilson Contreras to the Boston Red Sox. We break down this trade and what it means for the Cardinals in the immediate future and beyond on today's episode of Locked on Cardinals. You are locked on Cardinals. Your daily St. Louis Cardinals podcast, part of the Locked on podcast network, your team every day. Hey there, Cardinals fans. I'm J.D. Hafer, a former National Radio sports anchor born and raised in St. Louis and a lifetime Cardinals fan. And welcome to another episode of Locktown Cardinals, part of the Lockdown Podcast Network. Now the number one sports podcast network. Thank you to our everydayers for being here.

Starting point is 00:00:42 If you're new, welcome in. Hope you enjoy the content. This is a show serving Cardinal Nation and giving you all the info about the birds on the bat. Today's episode being brought to you by Fandall. If you want to be right in the middle of the action this season, visit fandle.com and place your NFL live bets all season long. So apologies for the delay on this. I was traveling this weekend and I'm just now getting back in, oh boy, do we have a bunch of things to talk about if you saw the short that I did after the trade went down on Sunday?

Starting point is 00:01:16 You can tell him in a totally different place. I was over at my parents' house. And it just, I was not expecting that on a Sunday night that the trade would go down. But here we are. On today's show, we've got the Cardinals signing a former first round pick of the Atlanta Braves to a minor league deal. We'll get you the info on that. have dealt the former batting champion to the American League. But we start with the trade that did take place on Sunday night with the Cardinals sending Wilson Contreras to Heim Bloom's favorite trade partner, the Boston Red Sox in exchange for three right-handed pitchers.

Starting point is 00:01:47 Here's a breakdown of things which were officially announced this afternoon. Red Sox get Wilson and $8 million to cover part of his remaining $41.5 million salary. The Cardinals will get right-handed pitcher Hunter Dobbins, right-handed pitcher, Yo Heeker, Fuhardo. and right-handed pitcher Blake Aida. Davids is 26 years old. He's the one guy that's somebody that, you know, is going to be a part of this roster right away. Boston's 27th ranked prospect in 2024

Starting point is 00:02:16 and made his Major League debut against the Cardinals on Sunday night baseball. Do you guys remember that game? I sure do. It was the second game of a double header. And that's the one where Michael is just got crushed on national TV. Not a whole lot of fun. They lost 18 to 7 for the 2025 season.

Starting point is 00:02:36 Dobbins was 4 and 1 at a 4.180 RA and 13 appearances. 11 of those were starts. The ERA plus right at league average 100. His season though cut short thanks to a knee injury where he tore the ACL in his right knee while running to cover first base during a game against the raise in mid-July. He ended up going under the knife, had surgery, ended the season on the 60-day injured list, though he has begun a throwing progression, started that in early November, is slated to be ready for the start of spring

Starting point is 00:03:07 training. There's been footage of him on his ex-page, working his way back and throwing. And so far, I guess things seem to be going well. He is no stranger to injuries, though. In fact, this is not the first time he's actually dealt with a knee injury to that knee. He tore the ACL ACL in the same knee playing high school football. apparently one of the opposing players dove at his knee took him out towards ACL. That's not good. So we're on a second ACL tear of the same knee. He's also had Tommy John surgery already.

Starting point is 00:03:42 Had his UCL repaired in 2021 while he was with Texas Tech, forcing him to miss his junior year. Is he injury prone? Are we going to say that? I mean, that's three pretty big injuries. And he's only 26. So it's certainly something to be aware of. I would say upside to this, at least it's not. not like the soft tissue injuries where, you know, the hamstrings or, you know, any kind of muscle

Starting point is 00:04:06 strains. It's not that type of stuff, which can be when we talk about being injury prone, those are like the nagging injuries that just constantly pop up. But again, Tommy John and two ACLs are the same knee. That's not great either. So hopefully he can be healthier now that he's a part of the Cardinals organization. Six-Bitch Arsenal that includes the four seam or slatter, curve sweeper, splitter, and sinker, which he kind of combos one of those pitches into a splinker. I'll explain that here momentarily. The frequency which he throws them is in that order as well. It goes four seam or slider curve and then like the splinker, the sweeper, like that's all at the bottom of the pitch list.

Starting point is 00:04:52 Baseball savant page has got his fastball velo in the 69th percentile at 95.5, which is solid. If you go to his scouting reports, it talks about him being able to touch 99 at times, but they say that his fastball just has average life. One scouting report says his control is ahead of command at this point. Says both or at least average already needs to do a better job consistently. Getting ahead of hitters with his fastball is much more comfortable pitching to his glove side than his arm's side. Fastball below equality decreases the game goes on. Okay.

Starting point is 00:05:27 doesn't everybody's who throws harder later in the game who's that who's that miracle uh velocity has increased since early in his career uh hit the upper 90s in 20 24 a potential plus pitch now the next pitch i want to draw attention to is what i mentioned that that splinker which is a splitter sinker combo that he throws 90 to 93 miles per hour new pitch developed in 2024 from his splitter uh this is the report on it says at its best shows late dive down and out of the zone looks like a sinking fastball at times with a little more vertical drop. Still a work in progress, but flashed that missing potential late in the year. High variance offering, but flashes above average potential already.

Starting point is 00:06:07 Walk percentage, strong. Seventy fourth percentile. You like that. He's not putting free guys on. Barrel percentage, solid, 75th percentile, ground ball percentage. We know how our Cardinals love their ground ball machines. 78 percentile. Everything else, kind of mid-level.

Starting point is 00:06:26 But then there's the two that stand out as way below average. And this is going to upset some fans, but that's the with and K percentage. With is just in the 22nd percentile K, down in the 14th. So he's not a strikeout machine by any means. 45Ks and 61 innings last year. When it comes to movement and velo similarities, according to baseball, Savant, they list Luis Heel from the Yankees, pretty darn good, Ryan Nelson from Arizona, pretty darn good.

Starting point is 00:06:59 They also list former Cardinal, who is now with Boston and Johanna Oviedo, and then former Red Sock and now Cardinals pitcher Richard Fitz as a similar guy. So what do we expect from Dobbins this season? My assumption is that he's going to join just the list of guys who are going to be competing for those final two spots in the rotation. He's just going to join that next. and if he doesn't win that spot, he'll either get sent to Memphis

Starting point is 00:07:28 to be a part of the depth of pitching that Heim Bloom is collecting for both his deals with Boston or he's somebody that maybe they think of using as long relief in the bullpen. I would assume that's a possibility too. The group of starting pitchers is growing, you know, guys that could legitimately be in this rotation in 2026. Matthew Libertor, Michael McGreevy, Dustin May,

Starting point is 00:07:52 those guys are taking three of the spots barring any injuries, which, you know, obviously can change things rather quickly. But then you've also got Richard Fitz, Kyle Leahy, Andre Palante, and now Hunter Dombins, if he's ready for opening day. Like, we're not, I'm not totally sure. We'll see how the ACL is when we get to spring training. But you got four right handers competing for those final two spots. And all four of them also. have worked out of the bullpen. So it's not like just Dobbins could go into the pen as kind of that long relief type of guy. All of these guys could be bad. You know, they've all had experience at some point or another from working out of a bullpen at the major league level. We know that

Starting point is 00:08:41 one thing that the Cardinals severely lacked last year was depth in their starting pitching, like throughout the organization. Luckily, they didn't deal with many injuries last year, to that rotation, what they dealt with was inefficient people in the rotation. You know, guys, they just didn't pitch very well. But they stayed healthy, so they were able to take the ball every fifth day, whether they were any good or not. That's not likely to happen again this year, right? You know, injuries are going to happen, especially when you bring guys in who have dealt

Starting point is 00:09:14 with injuries. Fitz had injuries last year. So to Dobbins, so to Dustin May, which is kind of wild that all three of them were at one point part of the Red Sox rotation last year. All three of them had injury concerns. So you would expect that one or two might go down at some point. It could happen. Things could happen to Libby or McGree. It could happen to any of them.

Starting point is 00:09:38 So to have more depth was obviously something that they were trying to work on this year. They're acquiring as many arms as they can. And hopefully it works out. You know, now you have more arms that are available. and ready with MLB experience that you can turn to if when something happens to one of your starters, they go down, you've got guys that you believe can take care of business at the major league level because they've been there before. And they're not costing you much. That's the other side of it too. You know, in the past, when they were trying to find depth

Starting point is 00:10:15 pieces, they'd go out and spend too much money on guys that were veterans at, at the end of their rope. Yum, looking at you, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn. And, you know, it just, it doesn't, I never liked those ideas. And they didn't really work out all that well. I'd rather have some of these guys who, yeah, the floor is probably lower, but the ceiling's also much higher for these guys because they're kind of unknowns. They're younger pitchers and we don't know how good they can be.

Starting point is 00:10:48 You know, most people, when you look at the scouting reports, look at guys like Dobbins and and they're like, yeah, these are back of the rotation guys. Okay. I mean, you got to have those guys. Would you rather have those guys? Or would you rather be paying Miles Michaelis to be one of those guys at like $18 million per? Right. You'd rather have Fitz of Dobbins and see what they can do.

Starting point is 00:11:08 Exactly. We're going to talk about the other two arms that they added next, one of which has the potential to actually be the best acquisition of the three guys in this deal for Wilson Contreras. We'll get to it on Locked on Cardinals. NFL Sundays move fast. one big play and suddenly everything feels different. That's what makes live betting with Fandall so exciting. It's fun. You're not just watching the game anymore. You're reacting to it in real time. With Fandall, you can place bets as the action unfolds. Every drive, every momentum swing, every highlight moment. You could be in on it. Live betting is best when the game does start to shift. When a receiver or a running back or a quarterback, they get hot or when a defense tightens up starts making stops, maybe they get a turnover. That's when it gets exciting. And Fando will let you jump right in. to the moment. Live spreads and money lines adjust instantly. Player props update his guys heat up. San Francisco 49ers against the Indianapolis Colts tonight. So Monday night football,

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Starting point is 00:12:53 listen of the day. Thank you for making Lockdown the number one sports podcast network. You already live your team every day. Now take it up a level. Go ad free. Join our everyday or club today and get locked on Cardinals with no interruptions, members only Discord access, and more all for just $5 a month or for $50 a year. Go to locked on SCL Cardinals. com or check the link in the show notes to learn more. So along with Dobbins in this trade for Wilson Contreras, now that you got Dobbins on board as someone who can help in the immediate future, like he can slide right on into your 26-man roster and make an impact for you, the Cardinals are

Starting point is 00:13:31 also hoping that the arms that they acquired with Dobbins can help them out later on down the road. The first one might end up being the best arm in this particular deal. And that's Fahardo, who was Boston's number 23 prospect of 2025, but baseball America had him inside their top 10. I think he was number, he was either eight or nine. I read it and now I can't remember who was eight or nine, but they had him there. He was inside their top 10 at the end of the season. So when you see that like, hey, he was 23 for Boston.

Starting point is 00:14:01 and now he's number nine for the Cardinals. Oh, how crappy the Cardinal system is. That's not exactly the full picture there. He would have been in the top 10 for Boston, just MLB pipeline hasn't put out their new 2026 rankings just yet. So he's 19 years old, all right? 19. What were you doing at 19th?

Starting point is 00:14:24 I was still in college learning how to make ramen noodles for myself. And this kid's in pro ball, you know, making a living. Boston acquired him for the White Sox last year. They had DF8, I think, Cam Boozer, the left-handed reliever, and the White Sox ended up making a swap. They wanted Boozer, and they gave up Fahardo in return, which really, when you go back and look at it, you're like, what was Chicago doing?

Starting point is 00:14:51 2.25 ERA, a 19 game, 17 starts, 83Ks, and 72 innings, slides into the number nine spot in the Cardinals top 30, right between right-hander Tocco, Roe, who unfortunately is out after having elbow surgery last year, and then shortstop, Hesu Spaias, whom they got in the deal from the Mets for Ryan Helsley. Scouting report here, the scouting grades, fastball 55, slider 55, change up 55, control 50,

Starting point is 00:15:16 but overall they gave him 40. I don't know how that math works, but that's the way it is. Landed the largest bonus among Venezuelan pitchers on the 2024 international market, signing with the White Sacks for 400K, made his pro debut in the rookie level Dominican Summer League, where he finished second in strikeout minus walk percentage at 26% after the Red Sox designated boozer for assignment late December.

Starting point is 00:15:38 Last December they shipped them to Chicago in exchange for Fahardo, who continually has added strength and be low since turning pro. Now works at 93 to 95 while touching 96 with the two seamer and 97 with his four seamer. Tight slider ranges from 82 to 85 and Boston is working with him or was working with him because that's when he wrote this, on adding a sweeper version as well. He also picked up an upper 80s kick changeup very quickly, giving him the potential for at least solid offerings across the board. More advanced than most 18-year-old, see, when they wrote this, he was only 18. He needed just six outings this past spring before earning a promotion to single A

Starting point is 00:16:17 has thrown strikes throughout his pro career commands to fast fall well, though he'll need time to develop. He's a potential mid-rotation starter. So similar to the sunny gray deal. where you got Richard Fitz, who can help the team now and in the immediate future. Fajardo is the Brandon Clark of this particular deal for Wilson Contreras. He's young, he's talented, but he's going to need some time.

Starting point is 00:16:44 He's not ready. He's going to need some time. He's 19. It's going to be a couple years before he even sniffs the big leagues if he ever makes it in the first place. It's always a gamble with young prospects. but, you know, there are certain players that you're willing to take the risk on. I mean, there's been a lot of guys that, you know, got taken early and were signed from the international market.

Starting point is 00:17:10 They take a little time to get where they need to be. And when they get there, they explode onto the scene and become stars. You know, you talk about Venezuelan, which is where he's from, Ronald Ocuner Jr. There's one, pretty big one. Jackson Churio, I believe, is also a Venezuelan. So young guys that, you know, end up working out. But it's going to, you get, I hate using that P word. So I don't want to say it.

Starting point is 00:17:33 But you're going to have to be, you know what, for a couple of years probably with this one. But the fact that he was going to be inside the Red Sox top 10 prospects is promising, considering how good scouts think their farm system is and has been in recent years. So nice piece, right? The final part of this deal, Blake Aida, 22 years. years old, not ranked in Boston's top 30 to start last year. I believe I read that he was going to be inside there at top 30 to start the season this year in his short brief career so far, 5 and 7, 3.98 ERA in 23 games, 19 of those starts, but he might crack the Cardinals top 30

Starting point is 00:18:12 when the new 2026 rankings come out. I'm not sure when the date will be on that. But his scouting report, fastball, 92, 95, high spin rate, solid command and control, velocity ticked up in spring training of 25 after sitting in the 89, 99, 92 mile per hour range in college, potential above average offering. He's also got a sweeper between 80 and 82 miles per hour, long, horizontal shape, extremely high spin rate with some over 3,200 RPM, which is amazing. Advanced feel and has shown strong bat-nissing ability, confident using against hitters from both sides of the plate.

Starting point is 00:18:47 He's got a cutter that goes 86 to 89, cut slider shape, high spin rate, solid feel. then he's got to change up as well, 85, 89 miles per hour primarily used against the left-handed hitters. Will flash bat missing ability. So again, 22 years old, a lot of upside there. Will he pan out? We don't know. You don't know about any of the prospects. Like, who was the best probably?

Starting point is 00:19:11 Like, we've seen it with the Cardinals. Like, Dylan Carlson was supposed to be a stud. You know, Colby Rasmus was supposed to be a stud. Alex Reyes, Jordan Walker, Nolan, Gorman. These are all guys that so far have not lived up to what everybody thought they were going to be. Just hasn't clicked yet. So judging this deal just on day one, it's hard to do that. But you got three arms and they all do different things for you.

Starting point is 00:19:42 One of them is kind of like the lottery ticket guy. One of them is like, all right, that's a depth piece. And then one of them is a guy that's going to help you now. Could go into your rotation. could end up just being long relief, but he's going to help you at some point. Some fans might feel overwhelmed with this return. But again, the Cardinals,

Starting point is 00:20:00 they only had to eat $8 million. You know, you had to pay $20 for Sunny Gray to go away. And now you're paying eight for Wilson Contreras to play. So that's $28 million. You're paying these guys to play for the Boston Red Sox. But that's what happens. That's what happens. First base opens up now.

Starting point is 00:20:22 Remember when we talked to sausage? We're like, oh, Wilson Contreras wants to stay around. It's kind of a bummer because that would be where Alec Burleson goes. Well, hello. Tadda, Alec Burleson. Now your full-time first baseman. I still want to see Yvonne Herrera take some reps at first. No one Gorman's done it in the past as well.

Starting point is 00:20:40 So you've got some guys that can back him up. You've got Blaise Jordan, who you got for Stephen Matt's for the Boston Red Sox as well. You've got him at AAA. he's still very, very young, though. So, you know, when you're dealing, aging and expensive players, like Sunny Gray and Wilson Contreras, you're not always going to get the player return that you think that those guys are worth.

Starting point is 00:21:10 Like, do we, looking at any of the guys that you've seen in return for Sunny and Wilson, a normal fan is going to see that and go, that is not even close to how good. good Willie and Sunny are. And they're not. But the possibility that some of these young guys could become as good or better than those guys is what you're hoping for. And you've got some guys that are going to get you through for the next couple of years at least. And maybe they'll do even more. I mean, it's not that Richard Fitz was the 12th rate of prospect for the Red Sox at one point. So it's not like he's some bum, you know, you got to look at the upside.

Starting point is 00:21:50 you're hoping for the best. There's a possibility that none of these dudes work out. But that's the risk you take when you make trades. And, you know, the cartels are tearing this thing down. And they're eliminating payroll and they're opening up more spots for younger guys who are cheaper. But they want them all to grow together. So when they are back into this window of competing for titles, division, world series, stuff like that. They're all going to be there together.

Starting point is 00:22:19 You know, as you see, they're getting guys between the ages, you know, 19 and 26. It's kind of where they're living. I know Dustin May is a one-year deal and he's 28, but he's not, you know, he's not an old guy. You know, he's not baseball old where he's in his 30s or anything like that. So is there still room for some veterans to show up because there's not a lot of them left in this clubhouse? Sure. But right now, that's not what they're looking for. They're trying to move on from those guys at the moment.

Starting point is 00:22:49 So five new arms that weren't in the system prior to the season. Two of them will help them this year and beyond, hopefully, in a couple of years, while the other three are part of the long-term future. And the idea of the – and this is something else that's been thrown out there, too, I want to mention real quick, that the idea that Heinblum is just acquiring his old picks and prospects, that is not true. of these five pictures that they they've obtained in these deals for contraris and gray. Dobbins is the only one that was actually part of Boston's farm system when Bloom was still there.

Starting point is 00:23:31 These are not his dudes. He's not going and just recouping all his dudes. That's false. It's a false narrative. It's not real. So you can put that to bet. That's not what he's doing. He's just making deals with guys that are making sense.

Starting point is 00:23:46 And remember, Sonny Gray and Wilson Contreras both had no trade clauses. So even if he was able to swing deals with other teams, we don't know if he was able to or not, if he had something lined up, they both could have said, no, no, no, no, no. If these are the options here, I want to go to Boston. I mean, in the end, Sunny and Willie had the power there to decide where they wanted to go. So it could have been on them to make sure that those deals were happening with Boston and not just Heinbloom comfortable with who he's working with over in Boston. So just another side to think about.

Starting point is 00:24:23 So still on the to trade list, you got Jojo Romero, Bernard Donovan and Nolan Aronado up next. The Cardinals did add a former first round pick, not from the Boston Red Sox to their stable of arms. I'll tell you about them next on Lockstone Cardinals. We're in the midst of the basketball season and there's nothing like being in the building. You get the crowd, you get the energy, You get the moments that you can't get from watching on the couch.

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Starting point is 00:25:42 download the GameTime app, create an account, use code locked on MLB for $20 off your, first purchase. Terms apply again. That's code L-O-C-K-E-D-O-N-M-LB for $20 off. Download the GameTime app today. The Lockdown Cardinals make your Spotify rath. We'll prove it on social media to scare a free month of our brand new Everyday Air Club. We'd love to have you on there. Just tag our national Lockdown Podcast Network account on any social platform. We'll drop you a code. Be one of the first to join the Everydayer Club to get your favorite show at free and exclusive access to the members-only Discord channel. So the Cardinals made one final move on Monday. signing left-hander Jared Schuster to a minor league deal. If that name sounds familiar, it's because he's a former first-round pick by the Atlanta Braves back in 2020. So not that long ago,

Starting point is 00:26:34 he was thought very highly first-round pick by the Atlanta Braves. I think we believe the Braves are smart organizations when they took him. He has pitched in parts of three big league seasons between the Braves, the White Sox. He was in the A's minor league system at the end of last season. And 2023, which was not that long ago. It's still 2025 for a few more days. He was the Braves number one prospect in 2023, according to MLB pipeline.

Starting point is 00:27:02 Obviously, things have not panned out for him. He has tossed 141 in two-thirds innings and has a 5.27 ERA in that time. Steve Adams for MLB trade rumors.com wrote that the 6-3 Southpaw has done a nice job avoiding hard contact to this point in his career, 87.7.7.7. mile per hour average exit velocity, 34% hard hit rate, but doesn't miss bats or limit walks at even average levels. He's fanned only 15.5% of his opponents and issued walks at a 10.1% clip in the Biggs says he sits 9092 with the four seamer as a starter and couples the pitch with the slider and change up both checking into the low 80s with their respective average

Starting point is 00:27:41 velocities. He was averaging 92.6 miles per hour on his fastball as a full-time reliever last year, but his results both in the majors and upper minors were rough. So say in the least, his numbers were kind of grody. I asked Lindsey Crosby, who does the Atlanta Braves postcast and is one of the guys that he really knows his prospects quite well. When I asked him his thoughts on what's going on with Schuster, he said still some potential there, but he needs to find a breaking ball that works. His slider has very little drop or break,

Starting point is 00:28:15 making it more like a cutter and he barely used a sweeper last year, change up fastball slider is tough for a lefty to make work. So again, this is a flyer on a former first rounder. It's a minor league contract. He was still young. So why not, right? You know, why not take a chance off? You know, the Cardinals have virtually no depth from the left side in their

Starting point is 00:28:38 bullpen. They just don't have any left-hand relievers ready to rock for next year. Jojo Romero is still on the team, but he's on the trade block. We don't know if he's going to be around. And then the only other lefty relief-wise on the 40 man is Nick Rockett. They still could go and find one via free agency. There's plenty of them out there that are still available. But this is just given a guy chance who seemed to have a very bright future,

Starting point is 00:29:02 not that long ago. Two years ago, it was the number one prospect in the Braves system. Maybe the Cardinals have identified some things to get them right. Maybe they got some ideas. They're like, wait, dude, you could do this, this. and this and you could become something special. It's happened before. Maybe Dusty Blake has got some magic in his bag there and can figure it out.

Starting point is 00:29:26 So I guess we'll find out in the spring. Now, his former team, the A's also made a deal to acquire former NL batting champion, Jeff McNeil from the Mets. New York is also sending $5.75 million to cover part of McNeil's 15.75 salary in 26. Our guy Booney from Locked on A's was pretty thrilled with this idea. He's like, hey, we only got to pay him $10 million. we get a year and see if it helps and clicks. He's like, I'm all in for it.

Starting point is 00:29:53 So McNeil won the NL batting crown 2022. Like it wasn't that long ago. Hit 326, let all a Major League Baseball that year, by the way. And I know how this affects the Cardinals is the A's were one of those teams that were also kind of checking in on Brendan Donovan. So I would assume that it would take them out of the mix. So Mariners, Giants. Cleveland? Who else we got? Who else? Who wants them some Brennan Donovan? And what are you willing to part with to get your hands on? Is he that missing piece? He could be. He could be. All right. That'll wrap things up for today. Thanks for making Locktown Cardinals. Your first listen every day. If you haven't already, give us a follow on X at Allo underscore Cardinals into JD Sports Radio, TikTok and Instagram at Lockdown Cardinals. Like, subscribe on YouTube to help our channel and love for the Cardinals grow. For those of you on video, you're taking off. We're going to send you to the first ever 24-7 national lockdown podcast.

Starting point is 00:30:48 Podcast Network YouTube channel for our audio listeners. We're going to be sending you, hopefully, to Lockdown MLB. If you haven't checked out Sully over there, you should do that. Good guy, funny dude. Make that your second listen over at Locked on MLB. You're the best fans of baseball for a reason. We'll see you next time on Lockdown Cardinals.

Locked On Cardinals - Daily Podcast On The St. Louis Cardinals - St. Louis Cardinals Trade Willson Contreras

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